Highest Monthly TIV Ever Recorded

The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) reported that the total industry volume (TIV) in Dec-24 rose 17.9% MoM and 4.2% YoY to 81.7k units, marking the highest monthly TIV ever recorded. Passenger vehicles increased by 13.7% MoM and 3.1% YoY to 73.1k units, while commercial vehicles saw steady growth, up 70.0% MoM and 15.1% YoY to 8.7k units. For the full year, TIV grew 2.1% YoY to 816.7k units, driven by 3.9% increase in passenger vehicles that more than offset 13.8% decline in commercial vehicles. MAA attributed the stronger Dec-24 sales to aggressive year-end promotions, while Jan-25 TIV is expected to be lower due to the Chinese New Year holidays.

National Vehicle Segment Sees Strong Growth in Dec-24

For the national vehicle segment, the passenger vehicle sales saw a 5.2% MoM increase and a 5.5% YoY growth in Dec-24, totalling 45.7k units. Perodua experienced a 1.2% MoM rise and 3.2% YoY growth, selling 32.2k units, contributing to an 8.4% increase in sales for 2024. Proton’s sales grew 15.9% MoM and 11.5% YoY, reaching 13.5k units, though its 2024 sales decreased by 2.2% compared to 2023. Overall, the national car segment grew by 5.1% YoY to 505.7k units sold in 2024. Overall, the combined market share of national passenger cars increased to 67.7% in 2024, up from 66.9% in 2023.

Non-National Passenger Vehicle Sales See Growth in Dec

In Dec-24, the non-national passenger vehicle sales grew by 31.7% MoM, reaching 27.4k units. Honda saw a 38.9% MoM increase, but down 11.3% YoY. Toyota's sales grew by 31.0% MoM and 15.4% YoY, while Nissan's sales rose by 5.6% MoM, but declined by 27.8% YoY. Mazda and Volkswagen saw MoM increases of 31.5% and 34.9%, respectively, but both experienced significant YoY declines of 29.2% and 40.4%. Overall, the non-national car segment saw a slight 0.8% YoY decline. For the full year, the non-national passenger vehicle sales increased by 1.5% YoY, totalling 241.5k units. Honda saw a 2.1% YoY rise, with 81.7k units sold, while Nissan, Toyota, Mazda, and Volkswagen all experienced YoY declines of 21.7%, 5.2%, 23.6%, and 36.3%, respectively. Despite declines from several major brands, the non-national segment saw overall growth due to the strong performance of other brands.

Sales of xEV Increased 19.2%

MAA has categorised the Hybrid Vehicles (HV) and Electrical Vehicles (EV) under the brand called xEV. In 2024, xEV sales rose 19.2% YoY to 45.6k units, with HV accounting for 30.8k units (+9.8% YoY) and EVs making up 14.8k units (+45.3% YoY). Tesla is excluded from EV sales as it is not a member of MAA. xEVs represented 5.6% of total TIV in 2024, up from 4.8% in 2023. Excluding HV, pure EV market share stands at approximately 1.8%. MAA expects continued growth in xEV demand, particularly as 2025 is the final year for full import and excise duty exemptions for imported EVs. The association also advocates extending the current tax break for fully-imported (CBU) EVs until 2030 to meet the country's EV adoption target of 15% by 2030. Locally-assembled (CKD) EVs are exempt from excise duty and sales tax until 31 Dec, 2027.

Maintain Overweight

We maintain our Overweight recommendation for the automotive sector and uphold our 2025 TIV forecast of 700k units (-14.3% YoY). We maintain a BUY rating on SIME (TP: RM2.74) and BAuto (TP: RM2.05), and upgrade MBM (TP: RM6.40) to BUY from Sell due to its significant upside potential following the recent decline in share price.

Source: TA Research - 28 Jan 2025