Trading With A View

Tradeview - 2016 Value Pick No.2 (UPA Corporation Berhad)

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Publish date: Thu, 31 Dec 2015, 10:46 AM
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Author of Once Upon A Time In Bursa : The MONEY Equation. A corporate strategist, lawyer & avid investor who has two great passion in life: Financial Markets & Real Estate. A true fundamentalist and financial writer motivated to tip the scale in favour of retail investors. Believe the stock market can be force for good.

Contact for update : tradeview101@gmail.com
Telegram: https://telegram.me/tradeview101

Dear fellow traders, 

For 2016, I will be sharing some fundamentally sound counters with upside growth progressively through out the next few months. These are just a few of my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. To join my telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101

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 Value Pick No. 2: UPA Corporation Berhad (TP RM2.77)

Quarterly Results (3Q) of UPA announced on 23rd Nov was fantastic. UPA achieved record quarterly results with a jump of 1.7 times EPS from 4.17 sens to 7.38 sens YoY. The results was spectacular and it can be seen that the weak MYR truly benefitted many export counters which traditionally did not enjoy profit margins of such. Additionally, there is steady growth of revenue from the immediate quarter from RM36 million to RM45 million. So it is not a case of pure forex gain translating to bottomline of the company. The annual dividend of 8 sens provides a decent 3.7% yield. In fact, UPA is one the few counters with export exposure that has yet to truly run with a PE less than 10 and share price below its NTA (RM2.51). If you believe in the truth of value investing, jumping into UPA is truly a no brainer. 

Below is the core business UPA is involved in:

 

Core Business

Our core business is represented by 3 of our main divisions.
 

UPA PRESS SDN. BHD.
The Press division is involved in the manufacturing of diaries and paper related products. Under the guidance of our executive director, Mr. Chua Ngeun Lok, UPA Press has grown to be the biggest diary manufacturer in Malaysia, and one of the leading diary and paper products manufacturers in Asia.

 
UPA MACHINERY SDN. BHD.

 

 

The Machinery division is the sole agent of Komori, an undisputable leading brand of printing machine in Japan. The division is also involved in reconditioning and refurbishment of Web printing machinery, Sheet fed printing machinery and book binding machinery. The division has grown to be one of the biggest printing equipment rebuilding factory in South East Asia.

 

 

MACRO PLASTIC SDN. BHD.
Macro Plastic Sdn. Bhd., a wholly owned subsidiary of UPA Corporation Bhd., is involved in the manufacturing of rigid films for food, pharmaceutical, electrical and electronics and semiconductor packing applications. The modern manufacturing plant is equipped with state-of-the-art machines, and adopts the ISO 9000 quality system management to ensure consistent quality and service.

 
 

 

 

Against its closest but not similar peer, CheeWah (Stationery exporter) which is trading at 11-12x PE, UPA is currently trading at 9x at the present price of RM2.24 Thursday. I am confident the next quarter UPA is able to maintain their EPS due to continuous strength in USD and and improvement in profit margin. The current EPS stands at 16.13 sens for 3 quarters. Taking a historcial earnings for the 4th quarter (traditionally strongest quarter which is also the dividend quarter) as precedent, the estimated forecast EPS would be 7 sens hence bringing all 4Q EPS to estimated 23.13. At PE 11x, the fair value for UPA should be RM2.54 and at PE 12x, the fair value would be RM2.77. In addition, there is also a dividend of 8 sens declared which I am confident the management may increase to 10 sens this time around. Conservative individuals can consider multiplying a 10-20% discount. As such, I raise the PE multiple of UPA to x12 and conservatively forecast the full year 2016 EPS at 23.13 sens, this would bring the FV to RM2.77 (excluding dividend) which in my opinion is reasonable.

 

Food for thought: Happy New Year to all! May 2016 be a better year.

May good fortune come your way!

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to trade. It is merely the expression of the author's personal opinion and shall not be held responsbile for potential gains or losses executed by readers.

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3 people like this. Showing 4 of 4 comments

soros228

Well written.
Koonbee9 this one ok or not ?

2015-12-31 10:51

eimajz

tradeview bro is reliable. I went in and out of UPA before the QR out. True enough it shot up to RM2.40 but I sold at RM2.30 only. Still very happy.

2016-01-03 15:21

tradeview

To join my telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101

2016-01-13 18:08

eimajz

52 week high! Nice!

2016-01-14 18:03

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