Trending Line
Market Outlook, The Trade War Begin.
2018 年的7 月6 号，中美贸易战终于开打。
但亚洲主要市场除了马来西亚和新加坡，其他如恒生，NIKKEI 和上指当天都收高。
KLCI
KLCI 基本上差不多要到达了短期的跌幅目标，后续的发展也许会反弹或小横盘。但从周线来看，第三个头部都已经出现了，与前面的两个头部一同形成一个更大的空头现象，如今回测在大颈线，就算反弹我认为也越不过 1717。所以，我不认为贸易战的开打是利空出尽，反而是利空才刚开始，因为一旦贸易战的后果一一揭晓时，也正是主跌段的开始。
STI
我们的邻国新加坡，其指数已经是正在下跌当中，也许在这个位置会有一段小反弹，可是走空的大趋势依然没有改变，短期下跌目标 3055。
DJI
道琼指数 - 美国最重要的指标，也出现收高在贸易战开打的当天。同样的，我认为这不是利空出尽的表现，反而是利空开始，因为贸易战所带来的影响是需要时间酝酿，一旦时间到了，它所带来的影响被揭晓后，必定会冲击各大市场。所以，我大胆推测这只是最后的烟火而已。
从道琼周线来看，虽然这周收高，可是依然是没有改变这个头部结构，而且在过去的两个月前到现在，都是一直处在拉高出货的行为。如今，支撑在大概 23357，而压力在 24790，我估计九月初会表态，届时让市场告诉我对错。
WTI
自这篇文章，我依然对原油维持看多，原油也已经不知不觉地去到了 USD70 以上，而现在最后的目标价是大概USD85。
对于中美贸易战，也许很多人都认为这只是一场秀；然而，我大胆的认为支这次美国是来真的，而不是只做做秀，就如我大胆的认为一些指数在当天收高不是因为利空出尽，反而是利空开始，毕竟没有任何人可以量化这场贸易战走到最后，到底对世界经济发展会带来怎样的影响；所以，我觉得别贸贸然看到股票便宜就冲进去抢，因为没有最便宜，只有更便宜。
也许我过于悲观，或完全错误。可是还是那一句 "市场会告诉我答案"。
但亚洲主要市场除了马来西亚和新加坡，其他如恒生，NIKKEI 和上指当天都收高。
KLCI
KLCI 基本上差不多要到达了短期的跌幅目标，后续的发展也许会反弹或小横盘。但从周线来看，第三个头部都已经出现了，与前面的两个头部一同形成一个更大的空头现象，如今回测在大颈线，就算反弹我认为也越不过 1717。所以，我不认为贸易战的开打是利空出尽，反而是利空才刚开始，因为一旦贸易战的后果一一揭晓时，也正是主跌段的开始。
STI
我们的邻国新加坡，其指数已经是正在下跌当中，也许在这个位置会有一段小反弹，可是走空的大趋势依然没有改变，短期下跌目标 3055。
HSI
恒生指数在贸易战当天最后收高，可是这样也无法改变它的空头格局。基本上我在过去的文章已经多次看空恒生，而且也如期的跌破颈线；如今恒生来到关键支撑区，就算反弹也都是空头反弹的一种，除非站上起跌点，否则该来的始终都会来，短期预计会来到大概27600。
上证
在众多的主要指数当中，上证算是相对还在低挡区，往下重要支撑大概在 2640。但是除了上证我也会观察 iShare A50 China ETF ，因为这档股是链接 A50CHIN 期权。基本上已经来到了第一波跌幅目标，往下看重要支撑在大概 11.8，毕竟那是前上涨波段的起涨点。
道琼指数 - 美国最重要的指标，也出现收高在贸易战开打的当天。同样的，我认为这不是利空出尽的表现，反而是利空开始，因为贸易战所带来的影响是需要时间酝酿，一旦时间到了，它所带来的影响被揭晓后，必定会冲击各大市场。所以，我大胆推测这只是最后的烟火而已。
从道琼周线来看，虽然这周收高，可是依然是没有改变这个头部结构，而且在过去的两个月前到现在，都是一直处在拉高出货的行为。如今，支撑在大概 23357，而压力在 24790，我估计九月初会表态，届时让市场告诉我对错。
WTI
自这篇文章，我依然对原油维持看多，原油也已经不知不觉地去到了 USD70 以上，而现在最后的目标价是大概USD85。
对于中美贸易战，也许很多人都认为这只是一场秀；然而，我大胆的认为支这次美国是来真的，而不是只做做秀，就如我大胆的认为一些指数在当天收高不是因为利空出尽，反而是利空开始，毕竟没有任何人可以量化这场贸易战走到最后，到底对世界经济发展会带来怎样的影响；所以，我觉得别贸贸然看到股票便宜就冲进去抢，因为没有最便宜，只有更便宜。
也许我过于悲观，或完全错误。可是还是那一句 "市场会告诉我答案"。
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 21 of 21 comments
Chart doesn't tell u trump thinking. Trump next action is not written in chart. Investor and speculator shall reaction on trump next course of action. So can throw your article into rubbish bin?
2018-07-08 23:06
no matter how, coming week the market will be opposite... go up.
because everyone buying it drop.
2018-07-08 23:13
Wall Street shares have ended slightly ahead, as strong growth in US jobs and gains in technology and pharmaceutical stocks offset market concerns of the burgeoning US-China trade war.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.4 per cent higher to 24,456.48.
The S&P 500 finished 0.9 per cent ahead to 2,759.81.
And finally, the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended 1.3 per cent up to 7,688.39.
2018-07-09 01:12
Banana John no matter how, coming week the market will be opposite... go up.
because everyone buying it drop.
08/07/2018 23:13
Exactly brother, the opposite happen.
2018-07-09 01:12
China will ban all American products, American forget China is a communist party, they can survive on salt and pepper. Is time American will vote Trumpet out. China communist party don't have to worry about election, Trump does.
2018-07-09 10:11
KLCI remains muted. I still holding my shorts. Thanks Jack Kong once again for his wonderful analysis.
2018-07-09 10:20
Trade wars worry only beginning stage, 10 year Bear market almost going to appear , 1997 ,2008 , all crash happen second half year on month AUGUST ,SEPTEMBER , i still remember 3 month ago , attend seminar ,almost all i attend seminar admit there is a crash ,but they all pingpoint ,will happen shallow crash , if shallow crash , take KLCI 1796 -31/12/17 close point , shallow crash 20 percent to 30 percent ,take average 25 percent correction ,1796 of 25 percent correction = 449 point correction , KLCI may drop to 1347 point , if worst 50 percent drop = 898 point drop , 1796-898 = KLCI will become 898 point
KEPT MORE CASH now ,awaiting shallow crash to = KLCI -1347 point
let see what happen month AUGUST ,SEPTEMBER on KLCI , everywhere will have OFFER ,OFFER , CHEAP SALE that moment
BIG CRASH COMING SOON ,klci TARGER = 1347 ,IT WILL HAPPEN EITHER MONTH AUGUST OR SETEMBER
look like history will repeated what happen at 1997 , trade war only first stage now,
Asia stock crash on 1997 , U.S noting happen , once Trump fully implement tariffs tax agaist China 2 thousand bilion U.S tax , China already kena teruk on first stage ,stock from 3500 point to 2700 point , once Trump fully implement tax against China ,all Asia stock will crash , malaysia target KLCI 1341 , take note ,
kept more cash now , sell all your stock and kept cash ,that moment will be a lot cheap sales , crash always happen on month August and September .1997 and 2008
CRASH ALWAYS HAPPEN MONTH EITHER AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER , TAKE NOTE
2018-07-09 12:48
@superbull11, ya have to eyes on aug and sept these 2 month, especially DXY which is weaken temporary now. So, we need to keep more cash before everything is clear.
2018-07-11 10:17
@cheoky, you are right, Trump won't draw the chart, but behavior does! If you look at the Top Glove chart, actually you will able to know Top Glove is in danger already which you can escape before it crash like that, unfortunately I'm don't have time to share this out. So, this is the reason behind that why Technical Analysis still survive since the stock market born.
2018-07-11 10:21
Coincidentally, Trump announce second round trade war again one Tuesday to impose tariffs 10% on 200B of China goods, and this decision will confirm around August.
2018-07-12 00:29
@Jack Kong, Do u think still can keep the put warrant KLCI-H4Y until next year? very attractive price now 0.165
2018-08-08 23:20
actually i think china may have a problem, just waiting for something to triggered it to happen.
2018-08-08 23:35
Joseph Stiglitz said "macroeconomics always prevails". The US has one problem - inadequate savings. China does not have this problem.
2018-08-08 23:37
on the other hand, u, u, n u + me got a sense of cautiousness and worry. this is the plus point right for market to go further north? No? trade wars overshadow positive news.... maybe i m wrong..
2018-08-08 23:44
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US impose additional tariff on 550 billion USD import from China.
US impose more tariff on 350 billion USD import from EU.
China impose additional tariff on 130 billion USD import from US, PLUS qualitative measures to ensure US product is not saleable in China.
China has 1.4 billion with 380 million middle class to cushion the shortfall of export to US.
US middle class is fast disappearing and the poor has to survive on soup kitchen. Winter come in next six months, these hardcore poor will have to commit crime in order can have free stay and free food in US prison.
So, who will suffer more when Donald Duck declare full trade war with China ??????
2018-07-08 22:47