Papayashot

I agreed. CARLSBG is very overvalued and I am not sure why ppl still chase for that

2020-04-26 15:02

FoolsGold

Since Carlsberg is priced by the market at rm27 & the good prof. EPV model valued it at rm12, perhaps Carslberg is not a suitable model for the EPV model, as there is something that the model could not a/c for in Carlsberg value, that the market knew about. (if u recall, the market is always right).
Any eg. that you come across, that give a good fit to EPV estimates ?

Can you think of any factor/limitation in the good prof. model ,that can explain why Carlsberg is actually worth more ? ref. to Bal. Sheet, maybe

2020-04-26 15:42

TrippleZ

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true.
Apple is only worth usd115 if you based on EPV. This evaluation method is too conservative and often missing a lot of opportunities.

2020-04-26 15:50

valuendiscipline

Whilst I respectfully disagree the market is always right (otherwise how do we make money haha), both of you are right. EPV may not be a good method for Carlsberg as it is conservative (no value given to growth). Market thinks there will be more growth in earnings (new products by parent Carlsberg).

Or maybe my cost of capital is too high given low rates now and Carlsberg stable earnings should be discounted at 6%.

2020-04-26 16:12

valuendiscipline

Sorry discounted at 3%*

2020-04-26 16:13