NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC)

This is a reposted article

 

The Eight  Stages  of A Hot Air Balloon Stock

NOTE: THIS ALSO APPLY TO CYCLICALS LIKE GLOVES, STEEL/ALUMINIUM & PALM OIL

 

Stage No. 1.  PermaFrost

Snow that is frozen for 2 or more years are called permafrost 

perma - as in perma-nent

frost - be freezed over

This is the stage of a really dead stock that no research house will bother. Not a single soul is interested.  The exception must be the only one in ten thousand who dare to buy any.

Stage No. 2. Thawing

Frozen Solid Ice starts to thaw or soften a little

A very slight passing glance by some value investors or deep value hunters. Only the very brave who SEE VALUE Will dare to buy some.

Stage No. 3 ICE Now Turning to Cold Water.

Some brave souls dare to venture in. Of course it's cold. Every where people pour scorn and cold water on the stock. Very few pay any attention. Remarks are usually negative. From Remisiers, fund managers, one and all. Same conclusion - the stock is not in their investment radar. So most reject it..

Stage 4. Cold Water no longer cold. It is now at room temperature.

Ha! there is a little attention paid by value investor. For the rest it is neither cold nor hot. So lukewarm response. No longer negative like before. But not positive either. A few hopeful investor  starts to accumulate.

 

Stage 5 Water starts to boil

Ha! the heat or fire cause the water to stir a little now. There is warm and movement.

Company reports a good quarter. Or some great contract awarded - real or assumed. Some by merger news. Some favourable factors due to ringgit crash and strong US Dollar translating into higher profits. Or cheap oil benefiting rubber glove, logistic stock like transport or airline. There is now a stir in the stock.

Newspapers, analysts, experts, punters and all are paying attention now. More people talk about it in internet forum and even the media reports it.

Buyers are coming in and there is a great stir at last. Things are now coming alive. Prices moving upward. Many are making   monies.

 

Stage 6. Boiling Water Turning Very Hot in the kettle. The water now churning in violent waves in the pot or kettle with steaming hot movements.

At long last the stock is very hot. Post after post by i3 forum member. All are universally drawn and sucked in. Like insects flying into bornfire at night there is a red hot wild attraction. As more people telling how they made killings in the stock market even more and more people are drawn into the red hot hot stock.

Those who made money early are now piling more and more monies into the red hot stock. Some even go into margin account to buy more.

Prices leap up to the cheers of all and sundry. Everyone is so happy. Happy in a sure winner. Emotion is now flying high. Any opposing view is slammed down in a frenzy. Reason is now overtaken by exuberance.

 

Stage No. 7. Hot Steam Rises Up The Sky As Hot Air To Form Cloud

All are now in cloud nine. Naysayers are condemned and proven wrong. The sky is the limit for the price. Can now fly to the moon or mars. More monies piled in. More suckers drawn in by greed.

This is the happiest time for all. But throwing all caution to the wind this is also now the most dangerous time to hold or buy more.

In Bursa every day the hot stock is traded in top 10 volumes

In internet forum this is the stock conversation revolves around day and night. Media reports it and tell why it should go even higher. Experts suddenly appear to tell you this time is different. The sky is the limit. Or the sky is not limit. It should fly to outer space.

See example:

Sumatech has a total of  121,603 posts

121,603 POSTS? AMAZING INDEED!

And 123 people clicked like for sumatech

All finally caught in SudaTrap

 

 

Hmmm?

IFCA Also got many posts & likes

 

Hmmm?

Airasia also look like one now with 40,978 hot hot comments

 

 

Stage No. 8 Precipitation - Cloud falls down and crash back to earth in torrential rain.

All caught holding high flying shares on the steep fall to earth are in despair. This is the ultimate result for those who chased hot hot stocks at the very peak = total loss and bankruptcies.

 

See from permafrost to precipitation stocks

 

SUMATEC RESOURCES BERHAD [S] (1201)

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