I think you need are becoming too optimistic. I like this article better.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/2020-05-16-story-h1507063036-_Tradeview_2020_Why_is_KLCI_Bursa_Stock_Exchange_Trading_At_Record_High.jsp

As he is asking the real questions: where is the hot money coming from? Is it coming from smart money or dumb money?

I think the fact is clear. When dumb money is buying more stocks and creating far more volume than institutional, when foreign investors are huge net sellers, when institutions are taking their time slowly you realize one thing.

The recent government actions of giving out free money ( rm1 million covid loans), suspension of short selling, pumping the cash to the rich and failure of past 2 months for businesses to generate profit has made many retailers put money in stocks which is selling at on average at all time lows in March and April. The recent gains had caused more retailers to pile in with money to buy everything they see,

FOMO.
I have been holding and buying glove stocks for last 10 years.i have been to their factories, AGMs and know topglove production line building progress closely.

I believe I can rationally say a few things.

1. Not every stock dealing in gloves production is a superior company. Then why are all of them even the obscure ones are being speculated on? Retailers are lapping up anything that even resembles contributing to glove production market.
2. Those who have seen the factories can quickly gauge the production capacity. Sure, asp can go up, production can definitely maximize. But to assume that glove production can double is one thing. To assume that it can triple, earnings can reach 5x is pure speculation.
3. Now that all the retailers are in without even looking at the results, the smart money is staying or starting to sell. If you take hengyuan as an example where were retailers in 2016? When it was selling at rm3-6. But put in one good result, a big margin fueled purchase of a illiquid stock, a fast speculative increase, then suddenly everyone was buying at rm12, rm15, rm18 and speculating that hengyuan will be flying to rm35.

Look at hengyuan. Back to earth, despite a nice crack spread today.

It is right now when everyone is buying that we should be selling, and start looking for deals in industries where everyone is leaving to uncover the gems. When I first bought topglove, it's PE was around 16, with good growth and dividends. When I get to that IB is predicting tp of 13.50, and retailers and blog promoters predicting TP of 20, with trailing PE of 90, they are assuming earnings grow by 3x in the next few quarters to catch up. The best companies in the Bursa like harta and topglove were expecting to grow 15% per year.

Right now I have 5 years of growth factored into stock price climb. That is just not rational to me. This is pure speculation filled investing. This will not end well for those who bought at super bull highs.

Johnmasino: I will assume you didn't write this then.

I don't know why you keep accusing me of saying that the CFO/PBB analyst/Hong Leong is wrong. I never said that! Please don't bring up ad hominem arguments and falsely accuse of attacking others as liars.


>>>>>>>

The PBB analyst should be shot for misleading so many people

Sorry, I'm not some sifu or great investor or some such. I will not presume to tell you to sell or buy or give some TP etc. I am learning something new everyday, the same as you. Just because CFO bought or sold doesn't mean you have to, but I bet you did not know this until I brought it up ( which is the purpose of the wonderful i3 forum to gain info).

What you should do is scuttlebutt and get as much information as possible before acting. In the end working with incomplete information you need to make a decision to buy or sell. The decision is always yours because results are never black/ white. In the short term, share price can jump in any direction, up and down. In the long run things fall into a more balanced pattern.

In the end, if you don't take a risk you gain nothing. The question is how you analyze risk.

>>>>>>>>>>
ohnmasino Philip:- Another thing that you said is that the CFO sold all his holdings at 80 cents and left the company. So, my question back to you is, just because the CFO sold all his shares at 80 cents, does that mean we should also do the same? After all, he is the CFO and has inside information so if he sold all his shares at 80 cents means we should do likewise?

It is good that you are optimistic, and there is definitely the possibility and chance that Jaks can go up to rm4.50 as per DK66 tp. But rationally since you are saying that Jaks CFO is wrong, pbb analyst is wrong, hong Leong analyst is wrong, everyone else is wrong, but you are right.

In that case with such overwhelming confidence, let me ask you a simple question: have you seen the ppa agreement of Jaks? Can you guarantee that the power plant will be fully operational by November 2020 inspite of covid 19 before LAD kicks in?

So until you have, all I can advise young investors is to invest rationally.

All the best.

>>>>>>>>>

johnmasino In any event, I believe there is still a lot of upside for JAKS to run, how far it will go is anyone's guess..my conservative estimate would be RM2.50 to RM3.00.
16/05/2020 11:58 PM

Mark to market? You can just use the tools at the top right corner to do the analysis if you want to. I'm sure my results beat yours any day. Your NETX 2 cents, hengyuan rm35, sapura rm3, Insas rm1, bjcorp, you sure you making money long term in stock market? Maybe that's why you still driving that myvi around everywhere. You should quit your grab driver job and concentrate on picking stocks properly. Saves you more money instead.

My trackable online portfolio has right up there. Do you know how to use it? You can check group transactions and see the performance of my "1 year" trade in topglove. The returns is right there.

Maybe you never started a portfolio before. You may not be that you cannot delete entries or edit them. Only add.

But maybe you should start one too, so we can actually see if you can raid stocks, because you results a bit bullshit la.



>>>>>>>>>

stockraider I think Philip had been exaggerating with 60% gain todate.!!

I encourage young investors to think rationally and not emotionally.

Understand the concept of risk. Intrinsic value margin of safety risk ( FA risk). SMA volatility in price trends ( ta risk). And Intrinsic business model and competitiveness risk ( QA risk). Obviously the entire industry is at 20 year lows. And obviously not all o&g companies will survive. But for those few wonderful companies that can survive and thrive, you will be buying cash rich companies with consistent growing revenue and earnings. A global presence that can consolidate and eat market share from bankrupted competitors. Best of all, buying a business that had double digits growth for many years with long term profits and assets, and buying it at pre IPO prices.

You just need to look at the business beyond the macros.

And also enjoy watching paint dry.

No one makes money buying gloves now. Those who made 10x, they bought it years ago.

Gambling is about putting money now to get more money in the future. Investment is about gambling with calculated risk. You could say I'm a gambler. But I could also say I only gamble in games that I have a high chance of winning.

Thanks and wish you all the best too.


>>>>>>>>>

blood7 wow... sold all gloves holding and buy into O&G... hmm, gambling? but you have holding power maybe ok.... well, only time will tell, wish you all the best (and i hope you will be right)!
16/05/2020 9:44 PM

For those who think the renewable and green energy is here, please refer to Michael Moore, my favorite documentarist.

https://youtu.be/Zk11vI-7czE

Johnmasino, be honest, how long have you been a Jaks shareholder? Did
you attend the 2018 AGM? Or the 2019 AGM? Would you have known about this stock if not for KYY? I have attended. I was very interested and about to buy Jaks before.

Let's be honest here. Those who have been here long enough would know that I have actually met Steven before for a short discussion with mutual friends, before he left for ksk. I did press him for details which I was reluctant to share due to him still being the CFO of Jaks before on the ppa agreement and the profit margins due from the power plant. As he has now left, all I can do is show you that in my portfolio I still have not bought a single share of Jaks. I believe the price once given out to during official AGM was below 140 million. He has since revised his profitability claims, sold all his stocks and left the company.

Do with that information what you will.

All these are official and recorded statements from Jaks management. So if you said the Jaks management is lying, and power plant will make 1 billion a year, then it may just turn out that way.

But be rational.


>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by DK66 > May 16, 2020 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

johnmasino, The CFO did say during the 2019 AGM that the JHDP will contribute 80-100m to Jaks but it also said "more than 100m" during the 2018 AGM. He did not provide further explanation. I think he could be taking Mong Duong II's distribution as a guide but that is just my opinion.

Since you are trying to pick numbers out of the air, why don't you pick the only numbers that was given before by management to investment bankers who actually went to Vietnam, seen the power plant, talked to the management, and did a lot of discussion directly?

If you want to take historical details,

This was in 2015, an analysis of Jaks the BUSINESS. By kenanga

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.insage.com.my/ir/cmn/downloading.aspx%3FsFileName%3D16103000018052%26sReportType%3DRR&ved=2ahUKEwi8-7PP1LjpAhWZXCsKHeiEC4QQFjADegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw21P31Gixvf0snK3N_C39ca

This was in 2017, an analysis of Jaks the BUSINESS. By public bank

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.insage.com.my/ir/cmn/downloading.aspx%3FsFileName%3D16103000018052%26sReportType%3DRR&ved=2ahUKEwi8-7PP1LjpAhWZXCsKHeiEC4QQFjADegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw21P31Gixvf0snK3N_C39ca

This was in 2020, an analysis of Jaks the BUSINESS. By hong Leong


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.bursamarketplace.com/mkt/tools/research/ch%3Dresearch%26pg%3Dresearch%26ac%3D919419%26bb%3D935930&ved=2ahUKEwiO-v2e1rjpAhULWX0KHYIKANQQFjACegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw0vzryUdVHAILAPLlzzqFYv

If anything, did Jaks the business do anything that was beyond the estimates of analysts that would cause funds to pile investments into Jaks from 2015-2020? I don't see any mutual funds buying.

The estimates and the results of the business through the years had been disappointingly consistent. The management guidance by Steven Ang ex CFO has guided towards the same results, and the CEO alp also has not given any profit guidance for the future.

In the end, has jaks done anything out of the ordinary to give you any confidence or full time bank analysts to revise their estimates for Jaks over the last 5 years? And yet still armchair part time amateur analysts can go saying everyone else is wrong, public bank is wrong and should demand an apology. Jaks should be worth 4.50 etc.

In my opinion, a conservative figure of net profit ( when current earnings from power plant is non-existent), one should use the figures given by analysts and ex-CFO of Jaks as a baseline. The fact that he sold all his shares at 80 cents should give one pause to think deeper instead of saying he is stupid.

I would say anyone not working at Jaks or has direct meetings with them are working with incomplete information, aka speculation.

Since almost all the 5 year estimates have been that Jaks is worth rm1.50 before pp, warrants dilution etc, it would be useful to be conservative to use that as your base level before adding optimism or negativity.

Going beyond that base level is adding risk or removing risk depending on your buying price. Some like DK66 managed to buy at 40 cents to put his costs down at 70 cents. Control the downside and protect the upside. He can sit back and monitor. Some like kyy bought until 1.48, expecting windfall.

What is your conservative figure?

Scuttlebutt.

>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by johnmasino > May 16, 2020 10:25 PM | Report Abuse

So according to Philip's assessment, we should use the most conservative figure of net profit of just RM14 million which means that JAKS is just worth RM0.21 at PE of 10..LOL

In sorry, your timeline and my timeline is very different. My investment in 2019/2020 has already returned me 60% over a year with a return of 6.7m over a 11m capital employed. For me that return is more than enough to wait through o&g return to positive earnings in 2024 and beyond.

I don't know about your trading methods, but for me the rational thing is to buy o&g stocks now when no one even wants to look at it. It is currently the lowest price it has been on in 19 years.

The last time oil prices were this low was when I lost everything during the Asian financial crisis.

The average 10 year price was around 65. In the long run, oil prices will definitely recover even though now it may not seem that way. There will be a huge consolidation after the bankruptcy and closure of multiple o&g companies. Those that survive will see a lot of long term growth after the consolidation.

I don't know exactly when this will happen. But I am confident in the long term that this will happen.

I think if you were unable to predict that gloves would do so well this year, and buy big into glove stocks, then you will also be unable to predict what will happen 6 months and 1 year from now.

But my method is far simpler. There are only a few companies that are captains of industry. Even in o&g industry there are companies which are growing and making profits even through this oil crisis. At the low prices which they are selling for, all I have to do is buy them when entire world doesn't want them. The dividends and my past earnings is enough to pay for my daily needs ( which can be very low I realized after mco), 5 years from now, you can bet your bottom dollar that the o&g industry will look far brighter.

No one knows the answer everything is just an estimation. That is why you need to take the good and the bad and make your decision.

If you decide to buy Jaks based on power plant alone, then you have to understand the business in entirety because that is what you are investing in.

If everyone know the answer then all sure kaya already. We are working on incomplete information, you have to weigh the risks involved.

But here is a true answer for you. If DK66 and OTB is 100% sure of the results, they would have sold everything, take up 100% margin and put everything in Jaks, buying at the low and selling at the high. Sslee will not be commenting, i3lurker will be keeping quiet.

But as long as there is uncertainty, everyone need to invest in a safe and controlled manner which reduces risk.

Do you know the answer?

Buying stocks is SCARY. So why don't you make it less scary by doing your own research, instead of listening to the sifus you like and scolding those that don't agree with you.

It is very clear from your tone that you already have money in buying Jaks. So obviously anyone who likes jaks will be your friend, and those who don't like Jaks is your enemy.

Stop thinking like that. Everyone here who gives an opinion is helping you build a better picture of Jaks and it's future.

Make YOUR mind and your own research, don't turn off your brain and just use other brain.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Do you know the answer ?
if you know , then say it out , loud and clear , in a most straightforward language
don't have to make it so mysterious to scare people .

Sslee here makes a good point.

If you wish to present your points, once is enough. Aseng keeps trying to argue and get the whole world to see his point, what is the purpose?

In the end both sslee, i3lurker, DK66, OTB etc are all using their best estimation and research on incomplete information. The possibility of it going wrong or right is why it is called investing and trading.

The point here is, you can say whatever you want, but until the results come up in 2021, you do not know if you are going to be right or wrong.

One simple example, your irr of 12% will all go out the window, if the power plant does not complete by November 2020, when the LAD will start to come into play. This was the same case that happened during Star issue.

Will a LAD occur? I do not know.

So there is no point arguing and shooting up and down. Just agreeb to disagree and let results speak for itself. If you are proven correct, then you can jump and laugh talk you want.

It's easy for Howard gold to say. It's easy to allocate capital when you are managing small sums. Turning 1 dollar into 2 in one day is simple. Turning 100 billion to 200 billion in one day is a far better magic trick.

It's like the MLM game where one recruits 5 who recruits 5 more to join the company. After the 7 or 8 round, you pretty much have the entire planet.

Being able to perform as well as they did over the period of time with the increasing capital allocation is already impressive enough.

But then again, everyone makes mistakes. The difference is warren knows exactly how and when to pull the trigger, which is even more impressive.

Contrast that to individuals like bill ackman, who let their ego get ahead of them and chased bad investments into the ground.

Buying is easy. Knowing when to sell takes real skill.


>>>>>>

Posted by qqq33333333 > May 15, 2020 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

end of Bufalo era?


lecturers and authors cannot use old banner...how?


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dud-stock-picks-bad-industry-bets-va...

Haha, i3lurker, my buying price for gloves is far far far lower than yours. My returns and share price increase have already far exceeded what I expected it to come in 2 years from now.

Speculators like you are buying on news, you will end up selling on earnings results.

I have been buying and holding glove stocks far longer than you have been investing

I think I will keep a record of your claims to amuse myself on how trolls are rarely rational. When things are going great they see it never ending. And when things are not doing so well, they think the company and industry will go bankrupt.

But the fact of the matter is your investment results reflect your rationality.

And irrational as you are, with your comments and claims, you are just a small gas blowing hot air. You have much to learn about investing.

At rm18-19, you are saying topglove will be worth 56 billion ringgit, with pe of 169.

As sslee is so fond of applying this weird concept, it will take you 169 years to get back your investment.

Then again, you may be fond of collecting tulips. If that is the case, you can join kyy, calvintaneng, stockraider, qqq3 in speculating on glove stocks. I'm sure you will be in great company and will do absurdly well.

Just remember timing the market is silly if you don't have a crystal ball.

>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > May 15, 2020 10:09 PM | Report Abuse

sslee

thats good news that Philip sold all cheap

coz TopGlove may power up from current RM10 to RM18 ~ RM19

coz you know IB always very conservative
and share prices may exceed IB TP = 13.30 it is normal

I would rather play with the certainty of TIME instead of timing the market. In the long run, oil selling at -37 USD is not normal but a very rare occurance.

If you assume that this will be the new normal and oil prices will always be low, then I believe TIME will prove you wrong.

In any case, by looking at the beaten down industry and choosing the wonderful company that no one wants to pay a high price anymore to own, I can build up a much larger position without causing a liquidity flux. By the time the position is built, the O&G market would have recovered.

My timeline for O&G stocks is 24 dec 2024. If what I believe is true, and many more oil companies will go under, the consolidation of prices will be far swifter than expected, and those companies left standing will benefit greatly when the consolidation comes.

As I cannot know when Covid will end, just as I cannot know when oil prices will go up, I prefer to just invest in wonderful companies at fair prices and wait while enjoying my dividends.

As for trading in a band and doing short term trades, have you looked at the commissions and costs that I pay for my positions? It makes no sense giving out hundreds of thousands in commissions (you can look at the costs I pay on average in my transactions group) for trading activities, which win 6/10 trades most of the time on average.

For playing small money I think it is ok. But if you are trading with far larger sums, the costs alone will kill you.

I paid almost 200K in commissions on my stock investments YOY.

That is a pretty penny to pay for trying to time the market.

>>>>>>>>

U should try to sell OnG stocks on spike or spurt up.
OIL just crashed weeks ago. these stocks at best could trade in a band, if u know how to max those #.

My reasoning for holding serbadk Warrants versus just buying the stock is as below:

Listing Date: 13 Dec 2019
Maturity Date: 05 Dec 2024
Number of warrants: 881,099,921
Exercise Price: MYR 2.6200

As I believe that at my current per warrant prices now of 0.237 per share, with 21 million warrants in my hand, I would be able to convert it all at the latest date of 5 dec 2024, which is within my expectations of conversion. As paying a cost of RM2.86 to buy a share of serbadk 4 years from today is a cheap investment in my opinion for a company that is guiding towards growing 15% in 2020 and onwards.

https://e-serbadk.com/serba-dinamik-lowers-target-growth-to-15serba-dinamik-agih-pek-makanan-rm500000-kepada-petugas-barisan-hadapan/

If they can keep the growth up, at a 4.5b revenue and 500m earnings guidance,
for FY2020, they are targeting 5.1b in revenue, 575m earnings
for FY2021, they are targeting 5.9b in revenue, 661m earnings
for fy2022, they are targeting 6.8b in revenue, 760m earnings

if we assume 5 billion shares dilution by 2024, and consistent growth trajectory with a PE20, an estimate share price of RM3.2 by 2025, paying 5 million is a reasonable cost for holding 21 million shares of something that I would have bought in the first place, with the added possibility of a upward swing on market rerating should the business perform better than expected.

In my opinion, Serba the company is running on the same legs as baker hughes and haliburton in its growth stage, by building up competency in its offices around the world, producing and training its own team of servicemen and software application in O&M services to increase efficiency. If they keep on the same track record and increasing its competency and footprint around the world in the same way, I don't see why the overall addressable market for serba cannot reach the same level.

I think Serba can definitely be a USD 4 billion company in the long run, if it is run as efficiently as haliburton (previously USD20b company) and baker hughes (USD30b company), but it depends on how serba comes out of this oil and covid crisis.

Sold my last batch of topglove at 10.20 @ 523.8K shares. I must say, this covid has really got me spooked. I usually prefer to hold shares as long as possible, but with the super speculative demand for glove counters + the fact that almost everyone has sold all their O&G stocks to pile into gloves, means that rationally, I have to sell, especially when the speculation is so great. I have shifted fully into cratered O&G stocks, GKENT and QL over this period as the stocks with a huge growth potential but still selling at a reasonable price. It has been a great 10 year ride, but sometimes when you have to make choices on what stocks to buy and what to sell.

My O&G picks for the next 5-10 years are those that are unaffected by the price of oil, or will greatly benefit from a low price/ high supply low demand environment:

1. Serba Dinamik - O&M works supplier. A muslim company working in muslim nations where oil price is still profitable selling at low prices compared to the rest of the world. And they pay no tax over there, via labuan connection.
2. Yinson - Charter rates and day payment with firm long term contracts. As the awarded contracts have not been canceled yet, and they always need a place to store oil in the current environment, Yinson should be looking to profit greatly.
3. PCHEM - Low prices of raw materials equals higher margins in sales prices. With averaging down in prices to further lows, my average cost has dropped to RM6.3 per share. As the IPO price for pchem was RM5, and I have managed to buy a bulk of my shares below IPO prices, I think I am very confident of a good return in the future once PIC goes full production. YTD I have received 36 cents in dividend, bringing me almost 760K in dividends to date. I can afford to wait it out.

My estimates is for the market to recover within the next 2-3 years to normal level (oil prices at 47+), and for the share price confidence to return.

Who knows, with China figures coming up fast and relevant, this may be a really short sneeze instead.

Hi popo92, macro economics is way way out of my expertise or ability to forecast. Frankly, I have no idea how to country economy will do, as there are just too many variables. I could have one opinion, then one well placed riot and change of government will change everything. Not my cup of tea.

how is serba dinamik an artificial intelligence company?>???

I don't know. Did you validate your account? I am only changing my last name in the selection tool.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by RainT > May 15, 2020 12:37 PM | Report Abuse

@philip

why u can always change your user name & still using old account in i3 investor?

I can understand how you feel, I was also more than 1 million paper loss, but having the conviction in GKENT and buying 4 million of shares in march when the price dropped below 50 cents gave me the confidence to average down.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp
>>>>>>>


SHQuah Still holding with paper loss more than half a million. Use to getting good dividend. Hopefully can recover next year and continue giving dividend.
15/05/2020 7:31 AM

Sold 400k shares of topglove@10.32, bought gkent 0.63, yinson 5.15, serbadk-wa 0.25

Now this is a well written totally unbiased article.

Kudos Sslee.

In the absence of real concrete results, I believe it is safer to use the most conservative figure available. At least that way when the real results come up you can be pleasantly surprised instead of aggressive investing based on anticipated good results and very shocked.

Don't worry, don't need you to teach me to buy and sell stocks.

You hold star too long I already laughing lo. Sslee already sold with 50% profit but small volume. I sold at 30% profit but much larger volume.

My topglove sales the more I sell the more the value keep going up, but don't worry, my profit in one year already 60+% for a pe50 stock.

But traders like you, kcchongnz, choivo and Ricky yeoh will never buy a pe50 stock right?

I already hold Topglove for 10 years lo, in all that time the share price going up steadily based on performance. Now the price is going up is based on speculation, I think I will keep to my own methods and sell off slowly.

Your sapura energy until now how come not yet reach rm3 one? Your NETX how come until now still not yet 8 cents one?

You still got money buy glove stocks?



>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > May 14, 2020 2:41 PM | Report Abuse

Then there is a fourth category a sohai who complaining on everything including a good guy who write a book....in the course of this sohai keep complaining...he over look opportunity & lost focus on the art of making monies loh....!!

If you are receiving 6% dividend every year to hold with SBB, I don't see any problem buying it cheap in the short term and enjoying the long term profits.

If you really want to count here is the timeline:

2020 - final progress claim for hospitals and vo work for lrt
2021 - MRT2 trail system contract 1 billion,
2023 - Honeywell smart water meter technology transfer water meter earnings guidance 50%
2024 - Lrt3 completion and profit

So, we have clear orderbook for the next 5 years of more than 7 billion to gkent.

Patience is the key.

But when it comes time to buy, will you want to?

>>>>>>>>>>

HQuah Don't know have to hold for how long ? 2 years or 5 years ? But how many 10 years do we have ?
13/05/2020 5:46 PM

If you are receiving 6% dividend every year to hold with SBB, I don't see any problem buying it cheap in the short term and enjoying the long term profits.

If you really want to count here is the timeline:

2021 - MRT2 trail system contract 1 billion,
2023 - honey well new smart meter contract
2024 - Lrt3 contract
2025- to monitor onwards

>>>>>>>>>>

HQuah Don't know have to hold for how long ? 2 years or 5 years ? But how many 10 years do we have ?
13/05/2020 5:46 PM

Sslee, I have zero issue with individuals posting their articles. Look at teoct, even though he writes articles decrying QL, I gave him a like and even started a position in the China milk industry.

What I have zero patience for is those who keep writing articles and repeating my investments are bad just because they are pe50.

So if you are able to write great stories, if you don't post your results to match the blogs articles I have no issue whatsoever.

But insulting others and commenting on their stock picks at the same time to push their own agenda, I find that repulsive. For those that seek to gain credit by discrediting others, I found it important to scuttlebutt and understand the confidence from where their investment theories lie.

Like yourself, I would not bother to comment at all, but for the fact that you seem to like defending INSAS not by commenting on INSAS share price, it's growth in earnings and returns in the long run, but by commenting on QL, gkent and Pchem results instead.

I don't mind these discussions, but in the end it has to be based on the reality of financial results, and I believe my pe50+ stocks in QL and topglove by now ( held over a very long time) should have expanded by now the concept of understanding businesses instead of just using pe, net assets and debt as a means of validating the long term performance of a company.

Flexibility yes, openness yes, but in finance and investing it is a very dangerous weapon if used without understanding.

If someone told you they can fly, and they can teach you or to fly, and all you have to do is buy a book and jump out the window and you can fly as well.

My recommendation is to ask him to show you that he can actually fly first before jumping out that window.

If you do not agree that having a portfolio is paramount in investing in someone's advice, I can give you 4 fund managers that have approached me to manage my money recently and their articles and prospectus. You can choose any one of them. After that I will give you their portfolio results and you can see which articles you loved best and if their 5 year results matched their words.

Thank you.

Attacking you personally would be to call you names and laughing at your investments.

I HUMBLY BEG YOUR FORGIVENESS FOR EXPOSING YOUR INCONSISTENCIES AS AN INVESTOR, STOCK SUBSCRIPTION SELLER AND FICTIONAL BOOK WRITER.

I did have to learn a lesson myself, by exposing Ricky yeoh, Jon choivo and kcchongnz credibility by highlighting the lack of a results based approach to writing, they have written substantially less. This is both good and bad for the i3 community.

It would be like my criticizing Mary buffett for her speaking tour, her 3 bestsellers on investing by asking a simple question: if we removed the buffett daughter in law tag, what would are your portfolio returns over the last 10 years?

That would be wrong and hurtful.

I humbly apologize kcchongnz.

I stop now before I do more damage to the community.

I was about to write an article on your stock picks over the last 6-7 years as many have emailed to me their experiences with your subscription and portfolio returns. I have built an entire portfolio results analysis.

But in the end, I no longer think it is right or worth it. The MCO is about fixing problems, not expanding them. DK66 and teoct did teach me a few good lessons.

Have a good weekend.


>>>>>>>>>>>>

So, the problem is above? Someone sharing that a stock is overvalued with some good reasoning and you considered it as a bashing of yourself? And you will start to even attack him personally?

OMG. What kind of character are you?

So yes, I believe I am very good at analysis and understanding business ( and people) to find the inconsistencies.

I also understand the importance of maintaining a portfolio, not to show sausages, but to track my own results, failures, successes in a very fair way for readers out there.

KYY puts his heart on the table, every success every failure. We can and should respect that.

Trolls like sslee and i3lurker are those with promoting articles or taking bad about everything, but looking at their promote stock performance, based on financial results one knows to take them seriously or not.

As for kcchongz, I believe I have had done enough explanation. He is someone I used to think was a reliable sifu on i3 with good writings.

Then when I saw his article dont buy stock picks services ( but he himself had done it for multiple years) I felt sick to my stomach.

This is the last comment I will leave on any of his articles.

I believe the results of QL and Topglove during this crisis ( both pe50+ stocks) and the subsequent margin fuelled purchases into Pchem during the crisis has shown the validity of my words over his articles.


Actions speak louder than words.

I have sold almost half of the stock split shares of topglove this year, and I still have as much in value as last year before splits.

Well written articles, stock pick subscription services and book sales pale in comparison to investment results.

For once why doesn't those investment book attach his the meat of the annual reports in his book? His past 10 year results, the balance sheet, the returns?

http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/The-Superinvestors-of-Graham-and-Doddsville-by-Warren-Buffett.pdf

This is one of the few blog articles that Warren wrote: what did he concentrate on?

RESULTS.

Over the years I have bought a lot of classes and subscriptions from many frauds and fake sifus. Suffice to say, and have spent a lot of money on classes. I have built a series of red flags to define this frauds. You can use it to evaluate before you buy classes, it has been very effective for me.

Kcchongnz fulfills every criteria.

1. Self promotion. Either by talking bad about other investors ( in this case KYY and myself), writing articles by referencing super investor methodology ( without the same results), etc.
2. No history of results. Almost every subscription classes I went to ( receipt for 2, who are now my investing partners), they will keep talking about stock picks analysis, but have no record of long term multiple year portfolios.
3. Very defensive when questioned on results. They spout things like comparing sausages etc but do not consider the importance of such. If you think about it qualitatively, who cares about the GREAT STORIES written, but the financial reports and returns? But almost all frauds are unable to keep a portfolio: because they have none. They take it as a personal affront instead.
4. Never looking back and studying his poor investments or selling activities. Selling is just as important as buying. Since frauds are just about selling stock picks and successes, they never understand the importance of learning from bad choices. You never see them studying or writing articles about their investment mistakes or their losses or selling prices.
5. Income sources. If you notice that they sell a lot of other supplementary products like subscription classes, stock pick services, book selling, e-book etc, they very rarely manage funds or are good enough at stock picking to live entirely off of it.
6. DIWORSIFICATION. Generally, most top investors have a tight investing policy of diversification. The number of stocks invested should coincide with the capital at hand, due to liquidity. Peter lynch is a brilliant individual, but he had to buy many stocks due to the mutual fund capital flowing in. His results despite the ever growing mutual fund capital is nothing short of amazing. Most frauds promote a lot of stocks picks because it is the only way to drum up interest and sales. It becomes very boring to keep buying the same stocks year after year, which many frauds have no idea about. There are limited good companies to invest in out there, despite the thousands available.

On his inconsistencies, I started noticing a huge deviation.

He would write comments like this:

One way to evaluate BH is look at the price to book value and decide on how much premium you are willing to pay for the service of the Oracle of Omaha; 1.1, 1.2, 1.5, or 2.0?

I don't buy BH as I am an active investor myself, and often dwell in the mid to small cap space to find better value. BH may suit many but doesn't suit my risk appetite.

Everyone is different.

Then in the same breath write things like this:


I would say a valuation of a company selling eggs, surimi, palm oil, things in a convenient stores selling at a PE even at of 50 (not to say 60) is way too rich. As a matter of fact, most super investors in the world would say that. Affirmative. It would be a very bad deal for me to buy it.

S tell me, can its profit double the next year, and what about the next? And why do you think at PE 60 for the kinds of business in QL, that it is still a good buy? A good buy even at PE 100? and how you justify it with some numbers? Or your great stories is good enough?

Why say things like everyone is different, but bash me directly?

I also noticed him writing articles to directly counter everytime KYY writes and article to talk bad indirectly.

When KYY writes about dayang, he writes when to sell.
When KYY writes about margin, he writes about the dark side.

You notice this pattern stretching back multiple years. I started asking myself why?

Let's scuttlebutt.

My truthful experience of kcchongnz? I used to respect his articles, and you can see from my many replies agreeing with his well written articles. I have even liked his articles.

This was my comments:

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Feb 3, 2019 10:59 PM | Report Abuse X

I think all of you have got it wrong. The main aim of investing is long term compounded gains. I tell you truly, even if kc is bottom of 2017 stock pick challenge, as long as he never leads you to negative gains yearly then he will have been a success.

Someone who can teach you how to never lose money will win over those who teach you to win big and lose big. Don't believe me?

The secret is compounded gains. Reinvestment into safe growing stocks that leave you happy over a long term.

If you take all the top 10 winners of stock pick challenge and you average out their stock picks ( reinvesting all their previous year gains), what do you get?

A teacher who can guide you to grow your book value steadily is worth 10 koon yew yins who lead you to big wins in latitude one day, and a xingquan the next. Hengyuan one day and sailang Jaks the next day.

Investing in stocks is about watching paint dry. If your idea of investing is 1 year stock challenge sailang all?

Then I noticed a pattern of his: he would consistently attack and smear other investors and commenters when his inconsistencies were brought up.

This is what he said Connie55 commented on him bringing down JAKS.

Posted by Connie555 > Nov 7, 2019 5:03 PM | Report Abuse
so as this kc....the more he use jaks as scenario the more i feel like puking....jaks already come bck frm 0.40 last time keep talk bull shit cashflow this that....nw that it bck to 1.1 he come out advice ppl this that...once i see...ah diu jaks again....yau hai this kcchong....wahlan.....instant turn off my cpu...u knw why? i duwan sit my electric bill on this bull shit


Seriously I did not expect anyone to become vulgar and started to personally attack others. I wish the society here is more civilized than that. Most of us were educated to be as such. Anyway, can't expect everyone to be the same

But then this is his replies to others:

Aiyo, you don't even realize how stupid you are. The more you talk, the more you reveal how retarded you are. Take my advice. Keep quiet, then no one will know you are that ridiculously and incredibly stupid.
---
Posted by kcchongnz > May 10, 2019 6:23 PM | Report Abuse

I really don't know what is the fuss about my portfolio. I am still making 3%. If annualized, it could be 10%. If I could maintain it every year for 20-30 years, I will be one of the top performers investing in Bursa.

Anywhere, isn't my portfolio better than the 2 below who lost 37% and 59% respectively?

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/99613.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/99183.jsp

By the way, to me, investing is a marathon, not a sprint.

Sslee, you are a very disgusting troll.

Luckily I like your profile photo. But also promoted INSAS during bloggers day 2019... Much to their detriment.

Appreciate if you can spend more time analysing stocks instead of trolling around.

Thank you.

FYI sslee, please stop trying to promote INSAS in JAKS forum, for the last 3+ years the results have not been fruitful. This durian need to chop down.


Thank you.

Sslee,

1. This is known as a pump and dump article with conscience, meaning short term buying and profit taking. You already took profit, and tp given at 40 cents which was achieved in a far far shorter period. You should know the difference between short term investing and long term investing. Fyi you also know my buy price and sell price and position size.

2. Apparently GDEX boy never bought a single share or even own GDEX buy randomly picked a stock without any investment horizon, since he protects his behind, I could care less. It is another case like Calvin tan, works out he says chun chun, doesn't work out he quietly files it away.

3.sslee, please stop being a troll and share some good investment ideas soon, otherwise you too will start being another troll who talk bad about everything and everyone, but never helped to give a good stock pick.

Please grow up.

Thank you.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 13, 2020 3:44 PM | Report Abuse

Haha i3lurker,
Your Gdex is close in on Philip STAR and I think very good chance to overtake STAR soon.
Philip will very soon eat his humble pie and call you Gdex Sifu instead of Gdex boy.

Fyi I still have 923k shares in topglove, which is around the same amount I had pre split. Stockraider you want to make fun of me? Wait 100000 years la ok? Your stoneraider skill need to brush up a bit ok?

At least I pick winners, unlike some bought:

NETX at 1.5-2 cents
Bjcorp expecting privatisation
Insas expecting mgo
Sapura energy expecting rm3 in 3 years
Bumi armada
Insas-wa

Etc etc..... How are you still in stock market when everything you pick is a bunch of losers?

Not forgetting Star which sslee very smartly sold at b40 cents while you still holding...

Trading also not good. Long term investing also not good.

You comment what bullshit oh?


>>>>>>>

stockraider U r still selling your winners & buying into your bunch of losers ah ??

For the short term, I have no idea what the markets will do or how stocks will perform. In fact, I managed to be the idiot who sells topglove at rm8 to buy stocks just when the share price jumped by 20% almost the next few days.

In the mid term, STONECO cash levels and business strategy will keep them afloat.

In the long term, I believe STONECO business model is a very very intrinsically strong model, which will be far more effective and customer centric than many of the incumbent Banks, which is a nightmare to navigate in Brazil.

>>>>>>>

popo92 Philip sifu, have the plunged of BRL affect your view on StoneCo? Do you still hold your view on StoneCo manage to continue its growth for the next few years?
13/05/2020 10:16 PM

Very easy to say, depends on your horizon.

When you plant durian for 3+ years and don't see any fruit, you also will become stress.

Some will start to promote their stocks in JAKS forum telling everyone how good it is, which is all well and good, except for the long term results.

But in the end, investing is about a little bit of luck here and there, a good break for the company here and there, and a little rain and sunshine when you need it.

Anyone who can profess to see a TP in the next few months or weeks is just silly.



>>>>>>>>

Posted by Aseng > May 13, 2020 3:08 PM | Report Abuse

After planted Durian, to see the fruits, you got to wait. This is the most boriing part. But God is great love, when you are bored, there is always provide you topic to talk

I don't get it, are you complaining? Isn't this an opportunity to collect and build the position? They have received multiple orders and earnings guidance and refilled orderbook.

At this juncture being able to buy a company with growing revenue and earnings at cheap prices and you are worried about the low prices?

My question was a simple yes/no question, DID your investment in JAKS after 3 years in 2017 buying at low price of PE4, which you paid RM1 for it, DID you get back your investment back in 2020?

No?

Then why the long story? Your "reasoning" and your real world results dont make sense.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 12, 2020 2:13 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
You are very cute. You ask me questions and I answer your questions and ask you are my answers right?

Your reply, “I am giving confusing answers and half truths”

I agree I do not know what truth is or half truths are because this crazy man called Mr. Market say 1 + 1 can be 3 or Zero.

Thank you

I don't know about speculation, but the sudden rise of share price is not backed by the growth in earnings. I am still keeping a majority of my shares in topglove, however moving some out and reinvesting more in the heavily undervalued stocks that I currently hold which I believe are still very undervalued.

I really hate to sell stocks, but since I am already full on margin, sometimes you can't have it all.

Sold topglove at rm8, and bought PCHEM at 5.43, gkent at 0.66, Serbadk wa at 0.25, YINSON 5.17.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/FongSilingColdeye/2020-05-10-story-h1506972670.jsp

Very solid explanation of how to really invest in stocks.

In simple terms, OF COURSE they are. Not only do they write well, their portfolio results year after year show that they are worth listening to.

Unlike some writers who drop names, but fill 2/3rd of the article with a shameless plug for their book sales.

I mean... Who cares if they sell 2000 books? I could write one as well and it would mean nothing at all if the readers don't actually benefit from it.

If you are a super investor who have made billions for their investors, they are definitely GOOD investors.

But good investors are not necessarily good writers.

Just as good writers are not necessarily good investors.

But nice story though.



>>>>>>>>>>>>>

kcchongnz Posted by Cnlim > May 12, 2020 7:30 AM | Report Abuse
Normally good writers are not good in investment in stock market cas investment has alots of others factors if so good no need to write n investment in the market better

Are the following super investors who have made billions for their investors and themselves good investors?

Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Marks, Seth Klarman, Mohnish Pabrai, etc.

You are the one giving out simplistic methods by saying if I pay PE4 for INSAS I can get back my investment in 4 years.

Now you are giving long-winded and confusing answer. So I wanted you back, is investing that simple? If you paid pe4 for INSAS the last few years WHAT DID YOU GET BACK? Did you get back your returns in 4 years?

The simple answer is of course not.

You are giving confusing answers and half truths. The fact is, if you gave out all your earnings do you really think you can maintain your future earnings output?

More importantly as a minority shareholder, there is no way for you to transfer those earnings directly to yourself.

So if that is the case, why are you using simplistic net net asset investment theology and simplistic concept if I pay low PE4 for the company I will get it back in 4 years?

This is an untrue statement and real life doesn't work this way. That is why no REAL INVESTOR is willing to pay 500 million for an asset based that is worth 1.7 billion.

Frankly, that is not how good investing works, and as a minority investor you need to invest AS a minority investor. You either find a good management where the majority investor treats you as a partner not a piggy bank, that makes decisions that benefit everyone not only themselves, that grows earnings and revenues over time, and takes calculated risks and doesn't keep going back to investors for money.

By simply buying based on net assets, you have to learn how to apply a discount based on your understand of how management is going to use those assets efficiently.

Who do you reward more?

Company A with assets of 1.6 billion, but fully utilize that 1.6 billion in assets to generate 4 billion in revenue and 400 million in earnings?

Or company B with assets of 1.7 billion, but utilize only a portion of it to generate 400 million in revenue and 100 million in earnings.

Please read Howard Marks memo on IRR which I posted to understand how to value companies better.

Thank you.

FYI please stop using childish concepts like buying pe4 company you get back your investment in 4 years. It's misleading and has no basis in reality of investing.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 12, 2020 9:20 AM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Just to answer Philip questions:
Is it true if I buy INSAS pe4, if I buy INSAS today I will earn back the cash I paid for it in 4 years?
Or is it true that not all earnings are cash? Some is just revaluation of mark to market securities?

Insas last financial year EPS 12.35 cents if you buy INSAS at 49.5 cents PE4 it just mean if INSAS maintain the same EPS of 12.35 cents for next 4 year then in 4 year time the cumulative earning is about 49.5 cent. The earning part of it will be from share of profit from associate companies and profit/loss of mark to market securities which do not contribute to operation cash flow but dividend by associate companies and securities contribute to the Free Cash Flow.

From free cash flow and cash reserve if INSAS give out all his yearly earning EPS as dividend then the answer is yes you will earn back the cash of 49.5 cents as cumulative dividend in year 4.

Just need you to answer one simple question.

Is it true if I buy INSAS pe4, if I buy INSAS today I will earn back the cash I paid for it in 4 years?

Or is it true that not all earnings are cash? Some is just revaluation of mark to market securities?

If your logic is correct buy INSAS now in four years earn back the initial cash outlay, do many millionaires and billionaires in Malaysia why no one is doing it? Why doesn't EPF, ASB, tabung Haji mutual funds all are not interested in taking advantage of this deal?

3 years ago you paid rm1+ to buy INSAS at low PE... Did you get back rm1 in dividends yet?

What happen?


>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 11, 2020 9:30 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Pardon me to promote INSAS in JAKS forum.

As of 31/12/2019
INSAS Earning

A wonderful example of the dunning Krueger effect.

Trolls like i3lurker.

>>>>>>>>>

3lurker taking incomplete information and making a story out of it

I dun own GDex => actually means I sold it off already, my friends too.

I had never owned GDex => I had never ever bought GDex

aiseh, Some people need English lessons, too old semile already.

That's my conclusion on Philip's character => taking incomplete information and making a story out of it.

Philip is totally incapable of reading English properly, attributed to speed reading.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > May 11, 2020 9:13 AM | Report Abuse
First they promote GDEX, then they say they don't own GDEX. But they don't find any issues in asking their friends to buy something they themselves would not touch.
11/05/2020 9:19 AM