As for depreciation and assets. Here is how I look at it,

For biological assets, the investment and turnaround time is not measured in months, but in years. Take for example plantations. To get a sizable investing, you would need to invest tens to hundreds of millions. And it has to be done in stages, plantations need 3-4 years to have a minimum yield. And you need to invest to the future in building a far larger refinery than necessary, just so that it can catch up to the growth in ffb processing. The returns would not be reflected until years later while staff and professionals salaries need to be paid today to cater for future demand. You can't just hire sslee to join the company at the beginning to plan and design, fire him in the middle, then rehire him back when the entire plantation is ready for full operations, can you?

Same goes for egg and frozen food operations, there will always be a cycle of aggressive growth and development of ppe, followed by a period of growth of biological assets, then followed by the availability, sales price monopoly due to economies of scale, and followed by increased demand in goods.

Currently the price of L size eggs in Vietnam is around myr 60 cents per egg. Malaysia in comparison is around 40 cents.

As QL has doubled the output of eggs in Vietnam and Indonesia, with a capex of 400 million. As their capex period is on the line of 2-3 years cycle, I believe there is no way for revenue growth and capex to follow a linear line, and it would wrong to make that assumption.


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ql-resources-optimistic-about-beating-record-fy19-performance

>>>>>>>>>

The operating expenses to revenue are unfortunately increasing yearly. Diving into the cost make-up, the two biggest item is depreciation of PPE and staff costs.

Staff productivity is reducing, the trend is downward. Revenue to depreciation is dropping at a higher rate. That is, the more plant, properties and equipment bought is giving less revenue every year.

The other points are also interesting. Here is my opinion of it.

QL has 4,000 employees. With revenues of roughly 1 billion USD, they effectively have each employee generating 250,000 in revenue. ( They are 1 million ringgit per employee, which is very very efficient for the scale).

Tyson food has 122,000 employees. With revenues of 40 billion, they effectively have each employee generating 320,000 in revenue.

CP food also has roughly 126,000 employees. With revenues of roughly 17 billion usd, they generate around 135,000 usd

Basically the point I was trying to make is QL revenue generation per employee is still statistically not saturated yet, and very efficient.

In terms of total market growth, despite QL size, it is still showing a huge potential to grow in a very very big market,

One thing I always try my best to convince new investors is to forget about this ludicrous concept. PE in no way shape or form gives you any indication of how "long" it will take to recoup your investment. It is simply a measure of the confidence Mr market has in the company. As a real comparison for example, take STAR MEDIA for example. Does the fact that it is selling at PE49 mean it will take 49 years to earn back your investment? Obviously not. Why? Assets and cash and borrowings are not reflected in PE.

In fact, if you could cough up 280 million in cash to buy out, you would immediately get 380 million in cash, on top of additional factory and property, and zero borrowings. Not bad for paying pe49 to recoup immediately the money used to buy the company.

How is that related to any return on equity?

>>>>>>>>>

Another way to look at PE is the number of years one required to recoup the money used to buy the company, that is 54 years based on RM 8 per share (close 24/4/20).

Happy investing.

Good way of thinking mabel.

Instead of beating up a defenceless GDEX boy, it is far more efficient to just ignore him or thank him for his useless "advice".

Since we know that relying or listening to his meaningless recommendations have no use at all, the best thing to do is just to stay away and forget all about him.

I love it.

>>>>>>

Posted by Mabel > Apr 24, 2020 8:30 PM | Report Abuse

I3lurker even give better TP...RM 10...

Life is so beautiful..

Meow Meow Meow

Unlike you with no record or portfolio, I am a man of my words. If I buy you will see it on my trackable portfolio. If I sell it will also be reflected there.

I'm not the type to waste my life commenting and bashing on everything, without any reference point or any history of useful analysis and valuations.

Tell me, why are you an ex-IB? Could it be that you sucked so much at your job they had to let you go before they lost all their customers? With your attitude and your stock pick skills, really hard to work with you.

GDEX boy....



>>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > Apr 24, 2020 2:33 PM | Report Abuse

sslee

yeah
I love him so much that I ordered him to buy a bankrupt stock
but unfortunately he must be quietly selling while being openly bullish.

thats Philip in essence

Not always. You can't go bankrupt if you dont have any borrowings. And if you have 380 million in pure cash alone, and a valuation of 190 million? You literally impossible to go bankrupt.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip5/2020-04-11-story-h1505927167-My_Second_Pump_Dump_Article_How_to_pump_with_a_Conscience.jsp

>>>>>>>

Posted by EngineeringProfit > Apr 24, 2020 2:26 PM | Report Abuse

Beware of penny stocks during recession.....many cannot survive the crisis

Wow, more lies from little kids. Who actually cares?

No one.

Go to your naughty corner, GDEX boy. your nose is growing so long, it is being used as a christmas tree.

>>>>>>

I am only responsible for my own actions such that I make money ethically.

once a while I do scare people by putting up huge buy or sell queues

They have probably been a shareholder for quite a long while. And the share buy back scheme has pushed them into the limelight. They probably didnt buy a single share, but the buyback has increased their ownership of the company.

Neither good nor bad,

>>>>>>>


SHQuah https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company...

Name KIN FAI INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Address Vistra Corporate Services Centre,
Wickhams Cay II, Road Town, Tortola,VG1110
Virgin Islands, British

Became a substantial shareholder by virtue of its existing shares held in the Company, where a total of 33,517,800 ordinary shares bought back by the Company and held as treasury shares as at 22 April 2020 was excluded in calculating the percentage of its shares held in the Company, which resulting its equity interest increased to 5.037%.

Direct (units) -26,687,499
Direct (%) - 5.037

Hi Philip,
Please advise ? good or bad ?
24/04/2020 8:33 AM

sigh... GDEX kid still trying to look for friends and trying to convince no one with his smart alecky comments on how he knows things and you don't.

But fact remains, his investment thesis is full of holes. Results of his recommendations are awkward, and his analaysis is always very childish.

First he says he write reports for Power Plant generation, then he becomes investment banker. Speed of light change.

But he tells so many lies he forgets the truth, he has no portfolio results. His comments full of bashing. And truth be told, STAR as a trade has already made more money for many people than he is capable of talking nonsense about in many years in i3 forum.

i3lurker, grow up. get a few friends, go outside for once. Go get lucky.

SSLEE always like to say I am lucky. Yup Topglove has been lucky for me, even today (lucky i didn't sell a single share eh?). QL also has been lucky for me. STAR also has been lucky for me. SERBA also has been lucky for me. Soon, hopefully GKENT and PCHEM also will be lucky for me.

Lucky every day.

Random walk theory eh?

But how come i3lurker so unlucky one? his GDEX not moving, while STAR go far north?

But i bet she has an explanation for it.

I3lurker has an explanation for everything, it seems.

Easy to explain if you don't need to justify your explanation with RESULTS.

This is what happens when SBB occur, you can grow your ownership in the company without doing a single thing.

>>>>>>>>>
https://klse.i3investor.com/insider/substantialShareholderNoticeOfInterest/3204/23-Apr-2020/13522_1295185212.jsp

Haha GDEX boy still trying to tell others what to do.


Who are you? Ib? I thought you were writing reports on power plants? Wear so many hats?

So.... I bought shares of SERBA at 1.12, so still safe. OVERSUBSCRIBED AT 1.5 times at RM1.49, meaning appetite for SERBA still very strong, not even necessary to go to RI stage.

But too bad, institutional investors are stupid, and small time investors like i3lurker and sslee are smart.

Sell serba dinamik, right?


>>>>>>>>

On behalf of the Board, Affin Hwang IB wishes to announce that the book-building exercise in relation to the Private Placement has been completed on 23 April 2020 by Affin Hwang IB, CIMB Investment Bank Berhad, Credit Suisse Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd and Credit Suisse Securities (Singapore) Limited. The Company will be issuing 306,507,000 new SDHB Shares, representing 10% of the issued and paid up share capital of SDHB. The Private Placement attracted demand from both local and foreign institutional investors, with the order book being oversubscribed by approximately 1.5 times of the total number of new SDHB Shares available for subscription under the Private Placement.

The Board has fixed the issue price for the Private Placement at RM1.49 per Placement Share (“Issue Price”). The Issue Price represents a discount of approximately 10% of RM 1.65 per SDHB Share, which is the 5-day volume weighted average market price of SDHB Shares up to and including 23 April 2020. The gross proceeds to be raised from the Private Placement are approximately RM456.7 million.

Calvintaneng is so single minded it is scary.

But his investment track record less so. His analysis is so simpleminded it borders on lunacy.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp - 2019 record

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/131750.jsp - 2020 record

He writes so many articles, and talks about so many stocks, you can't help but believe he is cun cun.

UNTIL YOU LOOK AT ALL HIS BLOGS AND EVERYTHING IS CUN CUN... RANDOM.

too bad Calvin. You can cheat followers once. Maybe cheat them twice. But if you do it repeatedly sooner or later you will get caught. Your promotional material for stock picking is getting lame, and you have far far FAR more losing stocks than you do wins.

SELL ADVENTA BUY NETX.

Post removed.Why?

Sslee,

Why you stop recommending INSAS liao? You also want to become another troll? You should tell me to sell SERBA and buy INSAS?

I thought you are going to be INSAS top 30 shareholders?

Sell SERBA buy INSAS mah?

Another troll who ALWAYS TRY TO FIND BAD THINGS in everything I say. But when make trading profits from STAR, not a single word of thanks.

You are a very low class individual you know.

But fine. Just ignore trolls.

Throwing pearls before swine, indeed.

I notice a lot of trolls in i3forum.

If you not an investor, comment a few times and leave us ok so we can analyze and make full use of your "insight" but remember decision is made by ourselves.

If you keep bashing stocks, and your so-called "facts" start to become more and more discordant? You are trying too hard.

I see many of these individuals coming out.

Calvintaneng - keep in repeating with his NETX and luxchem over and over
I3lurjer - 3000+ comments all about bashing stocks and the lone recommended stock he made on GDEX, is a total dud.
Stockraider - everyday follower of Calvin, and keep repeating over and over

I think the biggest traits of an internet troll. They fulfill them all.

RI is also bad, share is diluted at BELOW BARGAIN process for the selected few with money to invest during this crisis at the expense of other shareholders.

For me, the key goal is minimizing DILUTION and maximizing fundraising.

Who do you think will pay higher? PP or RI?

>>>>>>>

Posted by shpg22 > Apr 24, 2020 7:34 AM | Report Abuse

PP is worst than RI. Share is diluted at bargain price for the selected few at the expense of other shareholders.

This is me putting my foot down and investing where my mouth is:

Type Shares Unit Price
23-Mar-2020 Buy +1,900,000 1.12
17-Mar-2020 Buy +250,000 1.40
20-Feb-2020 Buy +500,000 2.34

I think SERBA is undervalued compared to future results, and I invest accordingly.

GDEX boy only knows how to bash stocks, but no basis on fact.

But since he can move and think at the speed of light. Maybe he doesn't need to take accountability for his comments and recommendations.

Comparing London biscuit to serba? When an idiot holds a hammer, everything in the world looks like a nail.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp#tabs_group2

Sometimes it is hard to ignore trolls, but when they start acting like lunatics at the speed of light, we just have to keep calm and move on.

Another question asked without thinking properly.

A. Private placement is guaranteed. The negotiation is a block agreement done with a single entity done at a fixed amount and fixed price. It is far more efficient and usually done with high net worth individuals or professional investors.

B. RIGHTS ISSUES is not guaranteed. The take up rate from the public
Can be under subscribed. It is also slower as the compliance take up much application processes.

Thinking qualitatively, if professional investors want to invest in my company, it is a good thing. They would have done their due diligence and convinced themselves that taking a risk in the company is the right thing to do. It may or may or work out, but a lower share price to pick up the balance risk is the key thing to look at. If banks and epf is willing to buy shares from SERBA at 1.62 for example and inject 580 million in cash, it is definitely bad short term but good long term as the company will have 1.9 billion of working capital to work with.

The mental model to think about is the dilution needed to raise the needed amount of cash.

In most cases a private placement would be the most beneficial, least dilution for maximum cash. Only when all the big boys is avoiding you then problems occur and we have to go for RI getting money from public. This is usually problematic because the dilution to get the same amount of money raised is usually far more.

As a minority investor you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. You can only hope for either more earnings growth in the long run, or more share buybacks done by management.

Short term pain for long term gain. But ask yourself this, very few individuals will be interested in o&g counter during this period, and even less by public shareholders. Credit SERBA for still being able to catch the eye of banks, institutional investors and high high networth individuals.

WHAT DO THEY SEE THAT YOU DO NOT?


https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052815/how-does-private-placement-affect-share-price.asp

>>>>>>>>

So the question
A. If Cash and cash Equivalents of RM 1,306,590,000. Why still need PP?
B. Why not RI?

Debt and borrowings is hutang. IOU.
PP is private placement. Free cash at the expense of share dilution. Yes it hurts investors, but far better than borrowing money from the bank. Hutang and IOU need to pay back money with interest.
PP got interest? PP need to pay back?

If share price drop, of course it will hurt. ( Not good for us and especially warrant holders). Now I know why Karim sold his warrants.

Dilution will be 10%. 10% less dividends and profits to share amongst us. If we share at all after crisis.

BUT......

Cash will increase by 10%, or 580 million in cash. To reduce hutang(pay back those IOU), and have working capital to grow the business.

In the end, orderbook is 15 billion. With a net profit margin of 10%, it will be 1.5 billion in profits going into our pockets for the next 4 years.

But dickyme is correct, the question is WILL SERBA DELIVER?

What is their tender book? Will they be able to replenish or grow their order book? Depends on market. This year or next year definitely not. But in 2-3 years time when a lot of competition has capsized and going bankrupt, who will survive?

Those with CASH. And those who can afford to WAIT.

So the fact remains, if you buy serba expecting 6 months or 1 year big returns then good luck to you, it will not be there. The timeline for serba performance will be 2 years-3 years on. That will be when the business will perform, when everyone else is gone. Just like in Qatar when all the angmoh left, and this little Islamic shariah compliant company is around to pick up the pieces.

What will the share price be then?

Just compare Baker Hughes, Schlumberger. Because that is serbadk real competition. Serba is taking market share from them.

That is track record enough for me.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by DickyMe > Apr 23, 2020 11:47 PM | Report Abuse

PP is another term for HUTANG or I O U

Serba's balls squeezed by PP investors

They must deliver as promise or die.

Serba has the integrity and track record to perform
or simply AIR LIUR to get PP?

Please don't feed the troll.

My daughter keep telling me this remark when she sees me commenting and replying to i3lurker.

She told me to stop replying him. Beat up little lying kids no point already.

Already know he is a fake "investor", GDEX boy with his half pass six so called reading of financial statements, he says Star is a horrible company selling below net cash, and got 1000 companies far better. He goes to promote GDEX to his friends. Then STAR share prices go up by 40+%.

All the while GDEX is just another company growing without growing profits.

But forget the troll, he doesn't talk sense. Never has.

A simple fact remains. If a company was going bankrupt, why would you still want to invest in it?

Private placement,rights issue all mean the same thing. Investors coming in to invest in in serbadk to give the company 580 million to reduce debt and provide working capital. Would you do that for a bankrupt company?

Even i3lurker is also a big investor in serba, a big part of his net worth is in KWSP, which is a major investor.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, this is a free country and an open forum. But childish kids are everywhere: since they can't pick good stocks and always lose money, so all they know is to bash ALL stocks. Just let them enjoy themselves and treat them like ghosts.

If they talk nonsense, without any history of being right or having a trackable portfolio, then you can just ignore their "advice" as the mutterings of a panicked Mr market.

Just don't feed the troll. They will never respond logically.

I3lurker go back to his old practises of bashing every stock he sees. I tried to explain that his entire 3k comments all about bashing and trolling, and he should start learning how to stop looking for bad stocks and start investing in good stocks instead.

After that he saw me writing about Star media at 26 cents and he start bashing it also, where he say he can be a good CEO in Star and how he can pick any 1000 stocks that will perform better than star.

So this little kid got flustered and decided to say GDEX is a far better stock than Star. So he finally recommend a stock to good friends to buy.

So I think ok, I'll buy and show him how real investors work.

Star then went up by 40+%.

Now suddenly i3lurker say he didn't buy GDEX, and he always recommend bad stocks and now he suddenly bought Star instead, after saying he shorted Star.

WOW. Kids and their big lies.

So now again he tries to act as if he is a know it all.

And back to his bad habits of bashing every stock out there.

Looks like little kid forever don't know how to buy good stocks that go up over time, so trying to fill up his failures by trying to act smart.

Too bad GDEX boy, you have already showed that you have no idea how to value stocks. So maybe you can shut up and go back to your bridge, troll. Bye bye now..

Standing your ground is a perfectly acceptable position as you are keeping everything cash and do not have any exposure at all.

Me? I will be putting my money to work just when everyone rather than is leaving the building, and investing more at wonderfully low valuations.

Now that blood is in the streets, then it is easy to buy low sell high, but no one is willing to do it. If you want to be a contrarian, now is the time to do it.

I will be one of the few that pile in cash and margin during this period.

Who is wrong or right? I will tell you next year.

All I know is, last year yinson was 4.20. today it is rm5. Since the price today is still higher than when I first bought it, I will choose to hold on and let quarterly results tell me what you do, and not newspapers, Facebook and i3 comments telling me what to do.

Let's see who is right.

>>>>>>>>>

I know what u are saying but I stand my ground....

Kelvin17, I was making a joke to i3lurker and sslee because they always like to act as if they are professional investors without any portfolio results.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp#tabs_group1

This is my transaction Portfolio for Star. I bought it at 26 cents and I sold after 30% gain at 34, just to prove a point to i3lurker.

When I bought star at 26 the entire value of the company was 190 million, with a cash position of 380 million, I believe liquidation value was at 52 cents.

For me I am sure the long term value of Star is worth far more than that, with Jaks lad of 50 million, ok property, the newspaper factory and business ( which I believe can earn money long term), I think Star is going to be worth far more than that if they find the right CEO.

Stockraider like to take advantage of other people's recommendation and still insult them instead of saying thank you, his character is low as usual.

But who is the real INVESTORS and who is the speculators who buy INSAS warrants, only they know themselves.

I made 30% returns in STAR MEDIA so far, and since I am pump and dump with conscience guy, when I dump it it will still go up. Amazing no?

PPHB is at 64 cents. ( From 49)
STAR is at 38 cents. ( From 26)

The difference between you and me is, I chose stocks very very carefully. I follow more than 1000+ stocks, but why only 1 article on penny stocks per year?

That's how hard it is to do.

But kids like you think playing stock market is easy, everyday can make money.

>>>>>>>>>>

i3lurker Looks like Philip is dumping Star

ha ha ha
13/04/2020 3:09 PM

Hope you don't really use your dick to make investment decisions.

>>>>>>>

i3lurker so Stockraider already lost money?

btw I shorted Star at 27.5 sen to Phillip

now making dick decision.
dick up => buy 26.5 to make profits
dick down => sell more

I3lurker is a remarkable gdex boy who thinks buying any of 1000+ stocks is better than investing in Star media. He talks so much bullshit that you never know if he talking for the sake of talking out if he actually knows what he is doing.

How is your shorting of Star going on? Having fun yet?

Gdex boy still with your fantasies? Have you had enough fun shorting star yet?

>>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > Apr 22, 2020 8:05 PM | Report Abuse

covid 19 will ONLY be stable once everyone (100%) has been infected and Malaysian deaths exceed 100,000. estimated to be around 150,000 deaths

once everyone infected, those who will die has already died then ONLY life in Malaysia will become normal.

after that business as usual.

until covid-19 randomly mutates again. Then history repeats itself.

Just in case you missed it,

FPSO stands for floating production STORAGE and offloading.

What happens when there is no buyers? Everyone is rushing to find a place to STORE oil ( and can't just simply find a warehouse to put it ya, very flammable).

Why do you think I avoid sapura and Armada like the plague?

Aiyoh, please take another look at yinson contracts again. Why everyone including yourself still assuming yinson business model is the same as armada and sapura?

I repeat to you one more time ya, the contracts written are based on man labor day rate. Their contract is a 8-25 year TRANSPORTATION contract and storage contract, which everyone is looking for now to store the unsold oil.

They are not a driller or epcc where they have a share in the profits of oil sold, like armada and sapura.

You are comparing a offshare Dialog Vs a oil explorer.

Fyi not all O&G firms are all the same thing. You really need to understand what you are buying, otherwise you will think hibiscus,carimin,dayang,sapura and armada all do the same business, which is very far from the truth.

Most importantly, you need to understand how the penalties are done if they cancel there contract with YINSON.

Delay I don't see an issue because their existing orderbook in Brazil and Africa will only come online in 2023. And their existing contracts their ships are being used to store the oil, since they can't pump it back into the sea.

So I don't see why they would cancel, especially since cancellation penalties would give yinson free FPSO that the can deploy to store I'll for other clients.

Get your business sense right, YINSON is not a driller, YINSON is a floating DIALOG.



>>>>>>>>>>
very good mentality...........but better if u don't have yinson..........this one cannot survive if oil below $ 30 for long because if drillers die, yinson also die................and right now, all off shore drillers die...........

As for me, it really doesn't matter to me if it takes longer or shorter to recover, 3 months to recover or 3 years for the market to recover.

I'm not a trader and I don't buy something just because it is cheap and sell something just because the price went up.

I try to buy a business or pieces of a wonderful business at a fair price. Therefore in this case, I don't really care what the long term market is like, as I invest in businesses that can make money over a long period of time.

Most of the time, I hope to never sell a wonderful business that I own.

In any case, investment is about paying money today for a return in the future.

The future that I am betting on will not include covid. When it will be I don't know, but I do know it won't be tomorrow.

But in any case, what to buy is a relative term, as your investment philosophy and mine are totally different.

I wish you good luck, you can choose to stand aside, watch the world burn, or buy stocks when everyone is running away. Selling a stock today should not be an option, unless you need money to survive.

Your choice.

Wow qqq3, the world has a CEO now? Who is he?

As for online penetration, when was the last time you buy Milo powder online? Drypers and and shampoo sent to you in lahad datu for cheap price? If the answer is no, it is simply because it is far cheaper to buy from the stores and small supermarkets than to delivery online.

The truth is, pushing 1.6 billion in product revenue a year is no joke. You need good connections, an experienced team, very good credit and long term business relationship with the big players Unilever, nestle and gab. Do you think they will simply give the principal order to any Tom dick and Harry?

Dear sslee, please don't make fun of other people's investments if you barely understand them yourself.

>>>>>>>

Harrisons has represented major multi-nationals for considerable lengths of time: Nestle has been with the Group for 84 years, GAB for 61 years, Malex for 51 years and Maerskline for 40 years, to cite a few examples. Other well known companies represented by Harrisons include SCA Hygiene (Drypers), Reckitt Benckiser (Dettol, Shieldtox), Kao (Biore, Laurier), Ngan Yin and Cocolin.

Please advise that dunno why sslee like to comment on other people's page. His thoughts and ideas are of his own, and nothing to do with me. His investment results are spectacularly uneven, and he comments like he knows Harrison business very well. In fact, I have a very good impression of Harrison's, where if you buy at these prices, you will enjoy a good dividend and increase in share price over the long term. In fact I would tell you to sell INSAS and buy Harrison to get a far better safe and dependable returns over the long term. Yes, Harrison's is probably not a growth stock, but there are many ways to make money out there, right? So why bash down Harrison's? I happen to think it is a very dependable and hard to break into business.

On top of that, we are renting our warehouse out to them to do storage, and they have been a very good and consistent payment throughout the years.

In fact, if you have to go into margin and buy and hold, Harrison's is a far better place to start at these prices today than INSAS.

1. Cats should never use margin.
2. Cats should never use margin to buy INSAS.
3. Self promotion is very good. Another one without any portfolio but say he is very respectable in investing world.

Sekian.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by leno > Apr 22, 2020 11:01 AM | Report Abuse

Just a reminder. Thou shall not ask or teach ppl to use margin.
Margin is for professional.
Even professional also many jump building using margin.
U can continue tok kok about on which stock or business to invest.
But margin is not something u wan other ppl to play with. Because u dunno wat other ppl ability or availability. Unless u agree to take responsibilty to those who follow u to use margin. Mean they die, u must die together. Are u ?
Below is a simple but yet very powerful philossphy on margin written by someone very respectable in investing world. Sekian.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/WTF/2015-01-13-story68322-WTF_about_...

For Serba, I totally agree. It is my smallest position that I am monitoring, and since block7 is a JV company with Karim and salleh, it may or may not be successful. I just don't know, but I am willing to monitor quarterly to see if things is believable and with investing in. One thing that does interest me is Karim selling 15 million of his warrants, and buying shares directly (250k). So far he still has 660 million shares in in Serba, so let's monitor together closely. As usual the operational strengths of Serba in middle East is quite strong and this epcc job should reflect that.

As for masterpack, I leave the management to explain further.

MASTER-PACK GROUP BERHAD (297020-W)
for the fourth quarter ended 31 December 2019

B2. Prospect 2020
2020 may see some decline in overall results compared to the year 2019 as more business challenges kick in not only for the Group but for the customers as well as businesses around the world are experiencing rapid changes. Nevertheless, management is of the opinion the group will be able to manage the impact.

I believe going to Vietnam instead of gaining market share locally can lead to both good and bad results. We will just have to see. As I have no experience whatsoever with the long term prospects of box packing industry and how you would choose one product rather then the other except by price, I personally would not invest in them. However since PPHB itself went up in share price ( via its hotel more than than for business expansion) it does appear to be a growing market and profitable for quite a long while.

For liihen/magni, I have a feeling you bought it because it was promoted by online sifus out there. That is the worse way to invest. Liihen does give out good consistent dividend, if you look at it like that. But if you look deeper, have you ever bought liihen furniture locally? Is it too your liking? Or like me have you never seen a shop in Malaysia and instead buy from IKEA your furniture needs?

If your answer is yes, then what are you doing buying a company you have not even seen or know about in Johor? Personally, I have studied liihen before back when KYY was promoting it, and have even visited their furniture factory in muar, Johor before I decided not to invest further. Frankly I didn't like their products, and I felt it is too old fashioned and gaudy, fit only for the US market. And apparently I became right because that is its biggest market, and it seems to sell to only a few customers. As liihen was also a 2nd generation company and didn't seem inclined to improve on their products to compete in Asia market ( despite having rubber and acasia plantation) by hiring better designers to produce signature product, I didn't move further.

https://liihenfurniture.com/product-category/bedroom-set/

Personally, here is the list of products sold and produced by liihen. Would you buy them for your home and for the price they are asking for? If the answer is no, then why invest in liihen?

First, understand the business. Then look at the financials. Then finally the easiest part, buying the share price. Don't mix up the order.

Magni for me is also similar, except that they mainly produce for Nike. Being in a far better position, and benefiting from Nike move to avoid business in sweatshops and the media backlash, magni has can compete on a different plane than just price. But being their single biggest customer, and the fact that Nike MAY one day change suppliers to go back to sweatshops in vietnsm, Bangladesh and Pakistan, I think I would rather avoid magni and invest elsewhere. For me, magni hasn't yet jumped to second gear ( like China) and moved from just an OEM manufacturer to making their own original product ( like li-ning and Anta). But I think your investment in magni is ok for the short and medium term, as long as you scuttlebutt and follow closely on their expansion and diversification plans ( as long as no DIWORSIFICATION into property development or Palm oil plantation or bitcoin trading etc)

Hi learning investor, in my opinion, we should start by being as specific as possible. Being an engineer myself, I know there are many kinds of engineer. What discipline? What industry? Sorry to push, but the point I'm trying to make is to start by teaching you the basics of how I do valuation, to scuttlebutt. Basically to start buying what makes sense.

Start with understanding companies in a deeper level, in relation to what you know. Start using contacts and friends within your circle to find out more of the business, instead of just buying stocks by reading online. Put your nose to the ground, so to speak. Invest in things that you really know about, and things that affect your life as an engineer directly.

For example, if you are a designing engineer, the two most important things that affect your life directly that you can't live without is Windows and AutoCAD. So I would start by studying replacements to Autodesk and Microsoft in your company. If it is well nigh impossible, then investing in msft and Autodesk since 2017 would have been a far brilliant choice so far.

I may be totally wrong, but you feel more like a sales engineer to me. If so, then your core competency will be in a totally different industry. But to be honest, your investment is all over the place.

AirAsia, it starts out as a good investment that you can tell everyone about, I like it too. It has a lot of cash, which they gained by offloading assets and leasing it back long term. I believe AirAsia is a good buy if it can get out of this hole, and of all it is the easiest to monitor. Your sentence is correct, but I would advice you to turn it into quantitative data, the correct concept is labour cost per seat mile, your revenue and earnings per seat mile. This is something I learnt from Warren buffet himself.

AirAsia has one of the best in industry. Now with this golden opportunity which is an all time low, I would say if you thought it was cheap when you bought it, then today is an even cheaper opportunity to buy something that will be bouyed by cheap fuel costs in the future ( the biggest factor you should always track when you study air Asia quarterly). As long as you can monitor AA cash levels, and add more when they receive a big loan or bailout from government, they will not go bankrupt. AA management, branding and cost structure is still there and better than anyone else, soon the crisis will end and they will recover. In a year or two you will not be able to buy it at 50 or 60 centre, much less 80 cents. Just buy consistently quarterly by looking at it as a company ( manage debt, get customers, train and release staff etc) and you should be fine.

Just don't dump everything in one go and go all in with margin, especially if you don't know what you are doing. Just invest slowly and add quarterly.

Since choivo seems very well versed with rimjob ( I did not even know such a word exists?), I will let him to continue on enjoying such activity. Please keep it to yourself and 1 meter away from others.

As for salty and whacking kc for no reason, I feel I am justified more and more each day.

First whackjob KC says don't listen to stock tips while all the while running a stockpick subscription service. Wow, the audacity. Almost as bad as a kid selling a research report for 5K, while never profiting from his own research report.

Then he goes around and talks bad about OPM, a topic which he has admitted zero knowledge about other than vague concepts and bad things that have happened to other people ( while avoiding the fact that his great heroes Warren buffet, Peter lynch, basically every fund manager out there is benefiting greatly from OPM).

After all, what is OPM but using other people's money ( debt) to generate a superior return compared to using cash alone.

I mean if I started writing books and articles based on phony track record and results of xx share here and XX share there, and my sister or wife or best friend started buying recommended stocks from kcchongnz/choivo based imaginary/nonexistent results, I'd be very "salty" too.

No reason? Really?

>>>>>>>>>>

But the tone of it, and how Phillip just cannot bear but to whack kc etc for no reason.

Your investment recommendations... are childish.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > Apr 9, 2020 8:13 AM | Report Abuse

still well supported at 22 sen

I feel like you chose all those stocks based on recommendations by sifus.

Why did you choose to buy those stocks in the first place? What is your investing timeline? How much do you earn per month? How much can you put into investing in stocks? In fact, those stocks you chose are so far apart that even I do not understand them as each are in totally different industries.

May I know, what is your profession? what do you work as? How long have you been working?

I apologize, as you and kcchongnz are far more capable in writing beautiful articles and academic pieces.

All I can do is show my method of investment backed with my portfolio results so you can see and question if it is working or not.

But I don't understand what you mean by salty. Can you actually clarify.

If you mean that I am showing by showing real portfolio results rather than XXX stock and XXX % then I really don't see any value in doing that way of writing an article based on fantasy instead of results.

If that is the case then I would rather be salty than fake.

Then again, every single letter written by Warren buffet is just a foreword cover for his annual report and business results.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600188858.jsp

Maybe you could revisit this and explain to mr teo how you made him sell QL for BRK based on your academic explanations in how overvalued and bad QL is as an investment?

So, will you ever take responsibility for your writings?

Why would I do so? Honestly this is something that you should be tracking and monitoring yourself directly with your own results. As I believe none of these are stocks that you really hold, since you have sold everything and went to NYSE.

So the point is moot.

Can you point out where I talked loudly about buying genting and Oriental? My portfolio is exactly as per my own purchases and sales, without the xxx here and XXX there that you are so fond of using.

As for which company performed better over the past year?

QL or BRK? You have only to look at the financial and stock results to know.

So many detractors, but who sleeps well at night in the end?

The owners and shareholders of QL.


>>>>>>>


probability i think the more we all talk on QL...the more the price will start dropping...some will start shorting i guess
05/01/2019 4:35 PM


Choivo Capital Mr teo,

Well, to answer your dilemma, do you think you cannot find a better investment?

Berkshire is selling at 16 times operating earnings now. Which is 3 times cheaper (just a rough estimate i think its probably 4-5 times cheaper).

Do you think QL is better than berkshire hathaway? When QL cannot even grow earnings and revenue faster than berkshire hathaway?

Don't take this to be me being argumentative. Just asking a question. If you say yes, hold. If you say no, go buy Berkshire Hathaway better.

Good luck with your journey. I wish you all the best.
04/01/2019 11:33 PM


supersaiyan3 Wow, congratulate the author for doing such a good analysis! Especially you did it without copy and paste. Really really good.

However, that was history. You'll get 100 marks but still you're totally wrong.

One, the killer has came to livestock farming, much worse than CP opening their mega farm next to QL (CP is in Malaysia though, small scale. Probably Malaysia's market is too small for CP). And most likely QL management doesn't know how to solve the problem. Two, Oil palm's low price may prolong for a few years (and our government continue to hurt oil palm, probably we will have a lost decade for oil palm). Otherwise, why did the major shareholders sell?

When QL was listed, I look at the receivables and decided this is a risky co. I was very wrong. So I could be wrong again.

You will start to see what i mean in the next quarterly result. Good luck!
05/01/2019 12:24 AM


stockraider By looking at the details QL maybe overrated, i think fairer indication of QL valuation should be in the region of rm 4.50 loh....!!
This co do not really pays div and damn stingy in sharing with shareholders loh...!
Its Family Mart but certainty not worth Rm 2 billion, the most maybe around Rm 600m factoring growth loh...!!
Overall QL should command PE around 23x...of course should not exceed Nestle and Dutch Lady mah...!!
05/01/2019 12:13 AM


GrahamNewman I have not critically evaluated QL but judging roughly from the 10 years financials it seems to be an average company, although it could have a slight chance of growing faster than previously. Assuming that the company can grow in real terms faster than inflation + long term gov yield, I have trouble assuming such a long growth period in my calculations. Yes, the company is good, it sells things that consumer will always need and recurrent(something Buffett would like), but the risk as Buffett said: the final risk is the risk of inadequate return over time, euphemism for you paid too much. Some might argue: have a longer time horizon, let the company compound. Even Munger has said eventually, over a very long period, ROE is the return investors ultimately get. But the caveat is you must be sure this is the best return you are going to get over that period, if not your opportunity cost would outweight your gain. And this is the point, where I believe the divergence of ideas begins in this forum. Each person opportunity cost is different, that is why QL could be good to some but inferior to others. For an investor who did not encounter better opportunities than QL, ipso facto QL is the best; while others will pursue better opportunities. The only way to get better returns is to widen your universe, as Buffett once comment on how to start finding good companies: start from A and work to Z.
08/01/2019 2:27 PM

Revisiting this article 1 year on, I hope you held the stock over the covid crisis period.

While many individuals have commented on the viability of holding QL, one thing you would have noticed was how much it has held its value over the past year and even over the crisis period.

From the lowly price of RM6.50, it has gone up to 8.60 on one year, while the revenues and earnings have hit all time highs in a quarter.

On top of that, during the crisis, while every stock in the market dropped by 30% or more, QL has remained relatively stable.

For me, the value has been far more excellent, as it has provided me with margin collateral that I was able to use to purchase a lot of other wonderful stocks selling at 10 year lows.

Buying and holding QL was one of the best decisions I have ever made.

I hope you didn't crack under pressure and got out of this wonderful investment vehicle.

Mr. Long numbers :)

Ok, I recommend you to short ql and topglove, I borrow you my shares?

>>>>>>

but logically, I think almost any share also can short, but no shorting allowed in Malaysia.

Obviously, I am still big into holding unto wonderful companies. I was just proving a point and doing a trade to show i3lurker how it is done. Still waiting for his GDEX to show some results.

More importantly, it is easy to do trading when you have small capital. But you notice immediately as the sums get bigger it is harder and harder to achieve good α, and far harder to compound the gains unto bigger trading positions over time.

This is why I believe traders never show their portfolio, but sell a lot of classes and investment subscriptions.

It's incredibly hard to do, and compounding your trades into bigger and bigger positions always end up in a black swan even which catches you with the pants down.

I tried it many years ago, and I still believe trading doesn't work.

But to say only my way works and others don't is silly.

I forgot more ways of trading and buying stocks than many sifus have learned over the years.

And I PAY to attend many classes, which I do learn many things.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by FoolsGold > Apr 21, 2020 11:50 AM | Report Abuse

Hei ! new fun mgr in charge now ? the previous guy is a die-die pure value investing, never sell or trade one..

[8] [STAR]: STAR MEDIA GROUP BHD (14-Apr-2020 - 20-Apr-2020) [Completed] | Total Return +23,469.00 [30.00%] over total capital of 78,230.10 | IRR: 21,474,836.47%

QQQ3, any good trades you can teach us about?

I did tell you it was a pump and dump activity.

Sold star at 0.34 cents, just to prove a point to i3lurker. so, we made 30% in a short period of time, and as this is not my core activity of buying and selling over short period, just to prove to others like sslee and kcchongnz that I am not a one trick pony, and can make money on arbitrage movements.

More importantly, the pump and dump with a conscience will mean that over the longer period, STAR will be much higher than the period when I first promoted it, at 26 cents.

PPHB when I promoted the pump and dump stock with a conscience was also at 49 cents (today is 61 cents).

That is how you should do promotion activities, don't just go around giving recommendations without doing due diligence, and make sure that long term returns are still good, a year or two from today.