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News & Blogs
2020-05-18 06:58 | Report Abuse
What do you mean?
>>>>>>>>>
qqq33333333 The FED can't even leave Index stocks alone.........and everyone is a Bufalo man....they still say there is a free market.
17/05/2020 11:33 PM
News & Blogs
2020-05-18 06:56 | Report Abuse
Ok. Do you know Ian personally? Maybe you can email me your contact and I can arrange for us to meet up together after MCO for some drinks? I still have some unopened hibiki. He is a very funny guy, but very warm and nice.
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News & Blogs
2020-05-17 23:10 | Report Abuse
No particular reason. I just thought that more people should see this video and understand how investing works and how to profit long term from it.
News & Blogs
2020-05-17 20:49 | Report Abuse
Investing should be a passion, I feel the same when he said that if it was free he would still love doing it.
I would too.
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2020-05-17 15:46 | Report Abuse
What bad mouth? Sohai Lau. You never watch the video simply talk cock again. Me and Ian both are going deep into o&g stocks for certain companies because we see value. What badmouth others? You don't even hold any stocks give so many excuses talk so much for what?
Show me some results please if you want to insult others.
Already can earn 50% from star but you become greedy hold too long got la.
Greedy sohai.
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News & Blogs
2020-05-17 14:57 | Report Abuse
Before I forget, or if you didn't listen to the interview, the stocks that Ian Yoong is currently holding right now are O&G stocks and small cap businesses in malaysia. KAB is also one of his holdings.
Watchlist
2020-05-17 13:04 | Report Abuse
Sohairaider, why you keep telling other people what to do? You are the one keep telling me my performance fake la, sohai la, this la that la. You everytime talk so loud, now as you to perform you have erectile dysfuntion? Why are you still keep talking? If don't want to track your own performance then why you so smart want to comment on mine and what I should do with my money?
If you dont want to track you performance, then fxxk off la. You are really wasting time here. You want to be sifu tell everyone what to do and promote you sapura, but you dont want to show how you make money from sapura and netx. Bullshit la.
>>>>>>>>
Posted by stockraider > May 17, 2020 12:02 PM | Report Abuse
Just go and do it, track your performance loh...don talkcock mah...!!
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2020-05-17 10:52 | Report Abuse
Oh so you know how many trades he makes every day yeah? I find it hard to believe that he will be too busy to maintain his account. He is obviously a part time trader, as he has already said he has a full time job in a courier despatch company
How many trades can a part time guy do?
I call bullshit, and he gives too many excuses. If he can type so much and talk so much in forum, he can certainly track his trades. But give him benefit of the doubt la.
News & Blogs
2020-05-17 09:12 | Report Abuse
Enough bullshit, you can ask me mark to market, but when ask you to maintain a portfolio, you give so many excuses. You are so fake, its so clear.
Even the blind can see, mark to market is based on stock to stock buy and sell returns, as portfolio unrealized profit/losses are transitional until you cut loss/cut win.
Even warren buffet laugh at you la.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-decries-accounting-rule-change-that-has-made-a-mess-of-berkshires-earnings-142751564.html
For my portfolio, operating earnings are what is left after you buy a stock and you sell it for profit/loss.
Selling is just as important as buying. Like your mark to market of hengyuan from 2.50 to 4.50 to 18.50. What is the point of numbers going up and down when you bought at RM8 and it goes up to RM18 (and you forget to sell and say it is worth RM35). Then it drops to 10 and you sell it off (you only make a gain of RM2), but you say you are smart. But what you didn't reveal is you bought hengyuan at RM5 because it has dropped to low low price, just to see it go down by 50% to 2.50. Then your balls shrink and you scared to buy back just as it went up to 4.50.
So now when the share price drop to RM3.60, you brain confused don't know what to do.
So in the end you give excuses la. True or not?
>>>>>>>>>
Posted by stockraider > May 17, 2020 8:26 AM | Report Abuse
How to track leh ??
Everyday i make monies...just netx i bought 1 sen...within 1 day it is already 1.5 sen 50% gain mah...!!
My activity is brisk & fast...not suitable for your type of tracking loh....!!
Watchlist
2020-05-17 09:12 | Report Abuse
Enough bullshit, you can ask me mark to market, but when ask you to maintain a portfolio, you give so many excuses. You are so fake, its so clear.
Even the blind can see, mark to market is based on stock to stock buy and sell returns, as portfolio unrealized profit/losses are transitional until you cut loss/cut win.
Even warren buffet laugh at you la.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-decries-accounting-rule-change-that-has-made-a-mess-of-berkshires-earnings-142751564.html
For my portfolio, operating earnings are what is left after you buy a stock and you sell it for profit/loss.
Selling is just as important as buying. Like your mark to market of hengyuan from 2.50 to 4.50 to 18.50. What is the point of numbers going up and down when you bought at RM8 and it goes up to RM18 (and you forget to sell and say it is worth RM35). Then it drops to 10 and you sell it off (you only make a gain of RM2), but you say you are smart. But what you didn't reveal is you bought hengyuan at RM5 because it has dropped to low low price, just to see it go down by 50% to 2.50. Then your balls shrink and you scared to buy back just as it went up to 4.50.
So now when the share price drop to RM3.60, you brain confused don't know what to do.
So in the end you give excuses la. True or not?
>>>>>>>>>
Posted by stockraider > May 17, 2020 8:26 AM | Report Abuse
How to track leh ??
Everyday i make monies...just netx i bought 1 sen...within 1 day it is already 1.5 sen 50% gain mah...!!
My activity is brisk & fast...not suitable for your type of tracking loh....!!
News & Blogs
2020-05-17 08:22 | Report Abuse
Can you for once in your life be honest and start an i3 portfolio to track your buy and sell?
Stop repeating on hindsight, but show your real application of investing.
You don't even have to put your real portfolio like I do.
Just start one with 100k, and plan your trades. You can buy first then promote. But you need to update your sell prices instead of simply taking bullcock everyday.
Then we can monitor if you keep talkcock everyday is based on good results or just talk only but never make money from stock market.
News & Blogs
2020-05-17 07:41 | Report Abuse
What bright side, you ask her to sailang everything at 40 cents. Now she curse you and fxxk you kao kao liau. What is a despatch boy doing telling ah fah how to buy stocks?
After you sailang all in sapura, then sailang all in NETX at 2 cents and lose half your money, you still got money to sailang?
Now talk bullshit again. After you buy stocks at 40 cents and watch everything crash around you to 6.5 cents you still dare to buy meh?
That's why I always laugh when I see people like you. Everyday can talk bullshit, but don't even daunting an i3 bursa portfolio.
You got buy sapura at 6.5 meh? After it drop to 16 cents you disappear from sape forum go hide in NETX forum got la.
Then the share price drop from 2 cents to 1 cents.
Lucky you not in NETX forum when share price was selling at 8 cents. Otherwise you sure cry sell your myvi liao
News & Blogs
2020-05-17 07:22 | Report Abuse
How is ah fah doing now? Still selling vegetables in the market? Maybe if she stop gambling her son can actually go to university instead of buy big at highest prices now need to help mom sell vegetables in the market. So pathetic, why she listen to stoneraider buy big at 0.365 with 40 billion orders etc. Now sapura worth what...9 cents. The share 1 lot worth less than toilet paper.
News & Blogs
News & Blogs
2020-05-17 07:17 | Report Abuse
It means this la. Your results speak for themselves stoneraider.
>>>>>>>>>>
stockraider The wise man eyes are in his head
A wise person sees with not just the physical pair of eyes
He sees with his "eyes in his head"
Or he uses his mind to "see"
Not just his physical eyes only
So we must see ahead of time
See 6 months down the road or 12 months or even 2 years or 3 years ahead
What are the companies that will do well then?
What are the opportunities and what are the pitfalls?
See ahead of time
What are the changes now that will alter the status 6 months or 12 months or 2 years down the road?
That is how we see with "eyes in our head".
Not only see & use your brain to think mah.....!!
Make use of your 6 senses to help u make monies loh...!!
Sapnrg in 3 yrs time will be reporting Rm 3b to Rm 5b profit, do u see sapnrg share price still at current low Rm 0.365 leh ?
Most importantly the next 6 to 12 mths there will have positive operations profits coming, profit on disposal oil field of Rm 2.0 billion and potential writeback of impairment previously of rm 3.0 billion as more & more unutilized assets put to good use to service the increasing oil industry loh..!!
With contract in hand secured already rm 19.3 billion, it is likely the huge contract wins will ballooned to record rm 40.0 billion.
Sapnrg is already have the biggest contract award from petronas in msia compare to the rest of OnG companies together combine, and this trend is still growing loh....!!
The share price is increasing day by day loh....!!
Ahfah already see it coming and had summon the courage to buy big, have u done anything yet leh ???
17/03/2019 1:04 PM
News & Blogs
2020-05-17 07:09 | Report Abuse
I think you need are becoming too optimistic. I like this article better.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/2020-05-16-story-h1507063036-_Tradeview_2020_Why_is_KLCI_Bursa_Stock_Exchange_Trading_At_Record_High.jsp
As he is asking the real questions: where is the hot money coming from? Is it coming from smart money or dumb money?
I think the fact is clear. When dumb money is buying more stocks and creating far more volume than institutional, when foreign investors are huge net sellers, when institutions are taking their time slowly you realize one thing.
The recent government actions of giving out free money ( rm1 million covid loans), suspension of short selling, pumping the cash to the rich and failure of past 2 months for businesses to generate profit has made many retailers put money in stocks which is selling at on average at all time lows in March and April. The recent gains had caused more retailers to pile in with money to buy everything they see,
FOMO.
I have been holding and buying glove stocks for last 10 years.i have been to their factories, AGMs and know topglove production line building progress closely.
I believe I can rationally say a few things.
1. Not every stock dealing in gloves production is a superior company. Then why are all of them even the obscure ones are being speculated on? Retailers are lapping up anything that even resembles contributing to glove production market.
2. Those who have seen the factories can quickly gauge the production capacity. Sure, asp can go up, production can definitely maximize. But to assume that glove production can double is one thing. To assume that it can triple, earnings can reach 5x is pure speculation.
3. Now that all the retailers are in without even looking at the results, the smart money is staying or starting to sell. If you take hengyuan as an example where were retailers in 2016? When it was selling at rm3-6. But put in one good result, a big margin fueled purchase of a illiquid stock, a fast speculative increase, then suddenly everyone was buying at rm12, rm15, rm18 and speculating that hengyuan will be flying to rm35.
Look at hengyuan. Back to earth, despite a nice crack spread today.
It is right now when everyone is buying that we should be selling, and start looking for deals in industries where everyone is leaving to uncover the gems. When I first bought topglove, it's PE was around 16, with good growth and dividends. When I get to that IB is predicting tp of 13.50, and retailers and blog promoters predicting TP of 20, with trailing PE of 90, they are assuming earnings grow by 3x in the next few quarters to catch up. The best companies in the Bursa like harta and topglove were expecting to grow 15% per year.
Right now I have 5 years of growth factored into stock price climb. That is just not rational to me. This is pure speculation filled investing. This will not end well for those who bought at super bull highs.
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2020-05-17 01:09 | Report Abuse
Johnmasino: I will assume you didn't write this then.
I don't know why you keep accusing me of saying that the CFO/PBB analyst/Hong Leong is wrong. I never said that! Please don't bring up ad hominem arguments and falsely accuse of attacking others as liars.
>>>>>>>
The PBB analyst should be shot for misleading so many people
Stock
2020-05-17 00:38 | Report Abuse
Sorry, I'm not some sifu or great investor or some such. I will not presume to tell you to sell or buy or give some TP etc. I am learning something new everyday, the same as you. Just because CFO bought or sold doesn't mean you have to, but I bet you did not know this until I brought it up ( which is the purpose of the wonderful i3 forum to gain info).
What you should do is scuttlebutt and get as much information as possible before acting. In the end working with incomplete information you need to make a decision to buy or sell. The decision is always yours because results are never black/ white. In the short term, share price can jump in any direction, up and down. In the long run things fall into a more balanced pattern.
In the end, if you don't take a risk you gain nothing. The question is how you analyze risk.
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ohnmasino Philip:- Another thing that you said is that the CFO sold all his holdings at 80 cents and left the company. So, my question back to you is, just because the CFO sold all his shares at 80 cents, does that mean we should also do the same? After all, he is the CFO and has inside information so if he sold all his shares at 80 cents means we should do likewise?
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2020-05-17 00:30 | Report Abuse
It is good that you are optimistic, and there is definitely the possibility and chance that Jaks can go up to rm4.50 as per DK66 tp. But rationally since you are saying that Jaks CFO is wrong, pbb analyst is wrong, hong Leong analyst is wrong, everyone else is wrong, but you are right.
In that case with such overwhelming confidence, let me ask you a simple question: have you seen the ppa agreement of Jaks? Can you guarantee that the power plant will be fully operational by November 2020 inspite of covid 19 before LAD kicks in?
So until you have, all I can advise young investors is to invest rationally.
All the best.
>>>>>>>>>
johnmasino In any event, I believe there is still a lot of upside for JAKS to run, how far it will go is anyone's guess..my conservative estimate would be RM2.50 to RM3.00.
16/05/2020 11:58 PM
Watchlist
2020-05-17 00:17 | Report Abuse
Mark to market? You can just use the tools at the top right corner to do the analysis if you want to. I'm sure my results beat yours any day. Your NETX 2 cents, hengyuan rm35, sapura rm3, Insas rm1, bjcorp, you sure you making money long term in stock market? Maybe that's why you still driving that myvi around everywhere. You should quit your grab driver job and concentrate on picking stocks properly. Saves you more money instead.
Watchlist
2020-05-17 00:14 | Report Abuse
My trackable online portfolio has right up there. Do you know how to use it? You can check group transactions and see the performance of my "1 year" trade in topglove. The returns is right there.
Maybe you never started a portfolio before. You may not be that you cannot delete entries or edit them. Only add.
But maybe you should start one too, so we can actually see if you can raid stocks, because you results a bit bullshit la.
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stockraider I think Philip had been exaggerating with 60% gain todate.!!
Watchlist
2020-05-17 00:09 | Report Abuse
I encourage young investors to think rationally and not emotionally.
Understand the concept of risk. Intrinsic value margin of safety risk ( FA risk). SMA volatility in price trends ( ta risk). And Intrinsic business model and competitiveness risk ( QA risk). Obviously the entire industry is at 20 year lows. And obviously not all o&g companies will survive. But for those few wonderful companies that can survive and thrive, you will be buying cash rich companies with consistent growing revenue and earnings. A global presence that can consolidate and eat market share from bankrupted competitors. Best of all, buying a business that had double digits growth for many years with long term profits and assets, and buying it at pre IPO prices.
You just need to look at the business beyond the macros.
And also enjoy watching paint dry.
No one makes money buying gloves now. Those who made 10x, they bought it years ago.
Gambling is about putting money now to get more money in the future. Investment is about gambling with calculated risk. You could say I'm a gambler. But I could also say I only gamble in games that I have a high chance of winning.
Thanks and wish you all the best too.
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blood7 wow... sold all gloves holding and buy into O&G... hmm, gambling? but you have holding power maybe ok.... well, only time will tell, wish you all the best (and i hope you will be right)!
16/05/2020 9:44 PM
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2020-05-16 23:57 | Report Abuse
For those who think the renewable and green energy is here, please refer to Michael Moore, my favorite documentarist.
https://youtu.be/Zk11vI-7czE
Stock
2020-05-16 23:51 | Report Abuse
Johnmasino, be honest, how long have you been a Jaks shareholder? Did
you attend the 2018 AGM? Or the 2019 AGM? Would you have known about this stock if not for KYY? I have attended. I was very interested and about to buy Jaks before.
Let's be honest here. Those who have been here long enough would know that I have actually met Steven before for a short discussion with mutual friends, before he left for ksk. I did press him for details which I was reluctant to share due to him still being the CFO of Jaks before on the ppa agreement and the profit margins due from the power plant. As he has now left, all I can do is show you that in my portfolio I still have not bought a single share of Jaks. I believe the price once given out to during official AGM was below 140 million. He has since revised his profitability claims, sold all his stocks and left the company.
Do with that information what you will.
All these are official and recorded statements from Jaks management. So if you said the Jaks management is lying, and power plant will make 1 billion a year, then it may just turn out that way.
But be rational.
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Posted by DK66 > May 16, 2020 10:29 PM | Report Abuse
johnmasino, The CFO did say during the 2019 AGM that the JHDP will contribute 80-100m to Jaks but it also said "more than 100m" during the 2018 AGM. He did not provide further explanation. I think he could be taking Mong Duong II's distribution as a guide but that is just my opinion.
Stock
2020-05-16 23:34 | Report Abuse
Since you are trying to pick numbers out of the air, why don't you pick the only numbers that was given before by management to investment bankers who actually went to Vietnam, seen the power plant, talked to the management, and did a lot of discussion directly?
If you want to take historical details,
This was in 2015, an analysis of Jaks the BUSINESS. By kenanga
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.insage.com.my/ir/cmn/downloading.aspx%3FsFileName%3D16103000018052%26sReportType%3DRR&ved=2ahUKEwi8-7PP1LjpAhWZXCsKHeiEC4QQFjADegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw21P31Gixvf0snK3N_C39ca
This was in 2017, an analysis of Jaks the BUSINESS. By public bank
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.insage.com.my/ir/cmn/downloading.aspx%3FsFileName%3D16103000018052%26sReportType%3DRR&ved=2ahUKEwi8-7PP1LjpAhWZXCsKHeiEC4QQFjADegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw21P31Gixvf0snK3N_C39ca
This was in 2020, an analysis of Jaks the BUSINESS. By hong Leong
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.bursamarketplace.com/mkt/tools/research/ch%3Dresearch%26pg%3Dresearch%26ac%3D919419%26bb%3D935930&ved=2ahUKEwiO-v2e1rjpAhULWX0KHYIKANQQFjACegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw0vzryUdVHAILAPLlzzqFYv
If anything, did Jaks the business do anything that was beyond the estimates of analysts that would cause funds to pile investments into Jaks from 2015-2020? I don't see any mutual funds buying.
The estimates and the results of the business through the years had been disappointingly consistent. The management guidance by Steven Ang ex CFO has guided towards the same results, and the CEO alp also has not given any profit guidance for the future.
In the end, has jaks done anything out of the ordinary to give you any confidence or full time bank analysts to revise their estimates for Jaks over the last 5 years? And yet still armchair part time amateur analysts can go saying everyone else is wrong, public bank is wrong and should demand an apology. Jaks should be worth 4.50 etc.
In my opinion, a conservative figure of net profit ( when current earnings from power plant is non-existent), one should use the figures given by analysts and ex-CFO of Jaks as a baseline. The fact that he sold all his shares at 80 cents should give one pause to think deeper instead of saying he is stupid.
I would say anyone not working at Jaks or has direct meetings with them are working with incomplete information, aka speculation.
Since almost all the 5 year estimates have been that Jaks is worth rm1.50 before pp, warrants dilution etc, it would be useful to be conservative to use that as your base level before adding optimism or negativity.
Going beyond that base level is adding risk or removing risk depending on your buying price. Some like DK66 managed to buy at 40 cents to put his costs down at 70 cents. Control the downside and protect the upside. He can sit back and monitor. Some like kyy bought until 1.48, expecting windfall.
What is your conservative figure?
Scuttlebutt.
>>>>>>>>>>>
Posted by johnmasino > May 16, 2020 10:25 PM | Report Abuse
So according to Philip's assessment, we should use the most conservative figure of net profit of just RM14 million which means that JAKS is just worth RM0.21 at PE of 10..LOL
Watchlist
2020-05-16 20:23 | Report Abuse
In sorry, your timeline and my timeline is very different. My investment in 2019/2020 has already returned me 60% over a year with a return of 6.7m over a 11m capital employed. For me that return is more than enough to wait through o&g return to positive earnings in 2024 and beyond.
I don't know about your trading methods, but for me the rational thing is to buy o&g stocks now when no one even wants to look at it. It is currently the lowest price it has been on in 19 years.
The last time oil prices were this low was when I lost everything during the Asian financial crisis.
The average 10 year price was around 65. In the long run, oil prices will definitely recover even though now it may not seem that way. There will be a huge consolidation after the bankruptcy and closure of multiple o&g companies. Those that survive will see a lot of long term growth after the consolidation.
I don't know exactly when this will happen. But I am confident in the long term that this will happen.
I think if you were unable to predict that gloves would do so well this year, and buy big into glove stocks, then you will also be unable to predict what will happen 6 months and 1 year from now.
But my method is far simpler. There are only a few companies that are captains of industry. Even in o&g industry there are companies which are growing and making profits even through this oil crisis. At the low prices which they are selling for, all I have to do is buy them when entire world doesn't want them. The dividends and my past earnings is enough to pay for my daily needs ( which can be very low I realized after mco), 5 years from now, you can bet your bottom dollar that the o&g industry will look far brighter.
Stock
2020-05-16 11:17 | Report Abuse
No one knows the answer everything is just an estimation. That is why you need to take the good and the bad and make your decision.
If you decide to buy Jaks based on power plant alone, then you have to understand the business in entirety because that is what you are investing in.
If everyone know the answer then all sure kaya already. We are working on incomplete information, you have to weigh the risks involved.
But here is a true answer for you. If DK66 and OTB is 100% sure of the results, they would have sold everything, take up 100% margin and put everything in Jaks, buying at the low and selling at the high. Sslee will not be commenting, i3lurker will be keeping quiet.
But as long as there is uncertainty, everyone need to invest in a safe and controlled manner which reduces risk.
Do you know the answer?
Buying stocks is SCARY. So why don't you make it less scary by doing your own research, instead of listening to the sifus you like and scolding those that don't agree with you.
It is very clear from your tone that you already have money in buying Jaks. So obviously anyone who likes jaks will be your friend, and those who don't like Jaks is your enemy.
Stop thinking like that. Everyone here who gives an opinion is helping you build a better picture of Jaks and it's future.
Make YOUR mind and your own research, don't turn off your brain and just use other brain.
>>>>>>>>>>>
Do you know the answer ?
if you know , then say it out , loud and clear , in a most straightforward language
don't have to make it so mysterious to scare people .
Stock
2020-05-16 10:32 | Report Abuse
Sslee here makes a good point.
If you wish to present your points, once is enough. Aseng keeps trying to argue and get the whole world to see his point, what is the purpose?
In the end both sslee, i3lurker, DK66, OTB etc are all using their best estimation and research on incomplete information. The possibility of it going wrong or right is why it is called investing and trading.
The point here is, you can say whatever you want, but until the results come up in 2021, you do not know if you are going to be right or wrong.
One simple example, your irr of 12% will all go out the window, if the power plant does not complete by November 2020, when the LAD will start to come into play. This was the same case that happened during Star issue.
Will a LAD occur? I do not know.
So there is no point arguing and shooting up and down. Just agreeb to disagree and let results speak for itself. If you are proven correct, then you can jump and laugh talk you want.
News & Blogs
2020-05-15 22:53 | Report Abuse
It's easy for Howard gold to say. It's easy to allocate capital when you are managing small sums. Turning 1 dollar into 2 in one day is simple. Turning 100 billion to 200 billion in one day is a far better magic trick.
It's like the MLM game where one recruits 5 who recruits 5 more to join the company. After the 7 or 8 round, you pretty much have the entire planet.
Being able to perform as well as they did over the period of time with the increasing capital allocation is already impressive enough.
But then again, everyone makes mistakes. The difference is warren knows exactly how and when to pull the trigger, which is even more impressive.
Contrast that to individuals like bill ackman, who let their ego get ahead of them and chased bad investments into the ground.
Buying is easy. Knowing when to sell takes real skill.
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Posted by qqq33333333 > May 15, 2020 10:29 PM | Report Abuse
end of Bufalo era?
lecturers and authors cannot use old banner...how?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dud-stock-picks-bad-industry-bets-va...
News & Blogs
2020-05-15 22:25 | Report Abuse
Haha, i3lurker, my buying price for gloves is far far far lower than yours. My returns and share price increase have already far exceeded what I expected it to come in 2 years from now.
Speculators like you are buying on news, you will end up selling on earnings results.
I have been buying and holding glove stocks far longer than you have been investing
I think I will keep a record of your claims to amuse myself on how trolls are rarely rational. When things are going great they see it never ending. And when things are not doing so well, they think the company and industry will go bankrupt.
But the fact of the matter is your investment results reflect your rationality.
And irrational as you are, with your comments and claims, you are just a small gas blowing hot air. You have much to learn about investing.
At rm18-19, you are saying topglove will be worth 56 billion ringgit, with pe of 169.
As sslee is so fond of applying this weird concept, it will take you 169 years to get back your investment.
Then again, you may be fond of collecting tulips. If that is the case, you can join kyy, calvintaneng, stockraider, qqq3 in speculating on glove stocks. I'm sure you will be in great company and will do absurdly well.
Just remember timing the market is silly if you don't have a crystal ball.
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Posted by i3lurker > May 15, 2020 10:09 PM | Report Abuse
sslee
thats good news that Philip sold all cheap
coz TopGlove may power up from current RM10 to RM18 ~ RM19
coz you know IB always very conservative
and share prices may exceed IB TP = 13.30 it is normal
Watchlist
2020-05-15 17:18 | Report Abuse
I would rather play with the certainty of TIME instead of timing the market. In the long run, oil selling at -37 USD is not normal but a very rare occurance.
If you assume that this will be the new normal and oil prices will always be low, then I believe TIME will prove you wrong.
In any case, by looking at the beaten down industry and choosing the wonderful company that no one wants to pay a high price anymore to own, I can build up a much larger position without causing a liquidity flux. By the time the position is built, the O&G market would have recovered.
My timeline for O&G stocks is 24 dec 2024. If what I believe is true, and many more oil companies will go under, the consolidation of prices will be far swifter than expected, and those companies left standing will benefit greatly when the consolidation comes.
As I cannot know when Covid will end, just as I cannot know when oil prices will go up, I prefer to just invest in wonderful companies at fair prices and wait while enjoying my dividends.
Watchlist
2020-05-15 17:10 | Report Abuse
As for trading in a band and doing short term trades, have you looked at the commissions and costs that I pay for my positions? It makes no sense giving out hundreds of thousands in commissions (you can look at the costs I pay on average in my transactions group) for trading activities, which win 6/10 trades most of the time on average.
For playing small money I think it is ok. But if you are trading with far larger sums, the costs alone will kill you.
I paid almost 200K in commissions on my stock investments YOY.
That is a pretty penny to pay for trying to time the market.
>>>>>>>>
U should try to sell OnG stocks on spike or spurt up.
OIL just crashed weeks ago. these stocks at best could trade in a band, if u know how to max those #.
Watchlist
2020-05-15 16:30 | Report Abuse
My reasoning for holding serbadk Warrants versus just buying the stock is as below:
Listing Date: 13 Dec 2019
Maturity Date: 05 Dec 2024
Number of warrants: 881,099,921
Exercise Price: MYR 2.6200
As I believe that at my current per warrant prices now of 0.237 per share, with 21 million warrants in my hand, I would be able to convert it all at the latest date of 5 dec 2024, which is within my expectations of conversion. As paying a cost of RM2.86 to buy a share of serbadk 4 years from today is a cheap investment in my opinion for a company that is guiding towards growing 15% in 2020 and onwards.
https://e-serbadk.com/serba-dinamik-lowers-target-growth-to-15serba-dinamik-agih-pek-makanan-rm500000-kepada-petugas-barisan-hadapan/
If they can keep the growth up, at a 4.5b revenue and 500m earnings guidance,
for FY2020, they are targeting 5.1b in revenue, 575m earnings
for FY2021, they are targeting 5.9b in revenue, 661m earnings
for fy2022, they are targeting 6.8b in revenue, 760m earnings
if we assume 5 billion shares dilution by 2024, and consistent growth trajectory with a PE20, an estimate share price of RM3.2 by 2025, paying 5 million is a reasonable cost for holding 21 million shares of something that I would have bought in the first place, with the added possibility of a upward swing on market rerating should the business perform better than expected.
In my opinion, Serba the company is running on the same legs as baker hughes and haliburton in its growth stage, by building up competency in its offices around the world, producing and training its own team of servicemen and software application in O&M services to increase efficiency. If they keep on the same track record and increasing its competency and footprint around the world in the same way, I don't see why the overall addressable market for serba cannot reach the same level.
I think Serba can definitely be a USD 4 billion company in the long run, if it is run as efficiently as haliburton (previously USD20b company) and baker hughes (USD30b company), but it depends on how serba comes out of this oil and covid crisis.
Watchlist
2020-05-15 15:51 | Report Abuse
Sold my last batch of topglove at 10.20 @ 523.8K shares. I must say, this covid has really got me spooked. I usually prefer to hold shares as long as possible, but with the super speculative demand for glove counters + the fact that almost everyone has sold all their O&G stocks to pile into gloves, means that rationally, I have to sell, especially when the speculation is so great. I have shifted fully into cratered O&G stocks, GKENT and QL over this period as the stocks with a huge growth potential but still selling at a reasonable price. It has been a great 10 year ride, but sometimes when you have to make choices on what stocks to buy and what to sell.
My O&G picks for the next 5-10 years are those that are unaffected by the price of oil, or will greatly benefit from a low price/ high supply low demand environment:
1. Serba Dinamik - O&M works supplier. A muslim company working in muslim nations where oil price is still profitable selling at low prices compared to the rest of the world. And they pay no tax over there, via labuan connection.
2. Yinson - Charter rates and day payment with firm long term contracts. As the awarded contracts have not been canceled yet, and they always need a place to store oil in the current environment, Yinson should be looking to profit greatly.
3. PCHEM - Low prices of raw materials equals higher margins in sales prices. With averaging down in prices to further lows, my average cost has dropped to RM6.3 per share. As the IPO price for pchem was RM5, and I have managed to buy a bulk of my shares below IPO prices, I think I am very confident of a good return in the future once PIC goes full production. YTD I have received 36 cents in dividend, bringing me almost 760K in dividends to date. I can afford to wait it out.
My estimates is for the market to recover within the next 2-3 years to normal level (oil prices at 47+), and for the share price confidence to return.
Who knows, with China figures coming up fast and relevant, this may be a really short sneeze instead.
Watchlist
2020-05-15 14:24 | Report Abuse
Hi popo92, macro economics is way way out of my expertise or ability to forecast. Frankly, I have no idea how to country economy will do, as there are just too many variables. I could have one opinion, then one well placed riot and change of government will change everything. Not my cup of tea.
News & Blogs
2020-05-15 14:11 | Report Abuse
how is serba dinamik an artificial intelligence company?>???
Stock
2020-05-15 12:40 | Report Abuse
I don't know. Did you validate your account? I am only changing my last name in the selection tool.
>>>>>>>>
Posted by RainT > May 15, 2020 12:37 PM | Report Abuse
@philip
why u can always change your user name & still using old account in i3 investor?
Blog: Sharing investment journey of Ian Yoong - HNW private equity investor and his Stock PICKS
2020-05-18 09:02 | Report Abuse
Good money to you too.
Me and Ian both have the same concept, be aware of macro economics in industry but don't let it influence your selection of single companies.
Yes there is a lot of retail money in the market, but the fact is there will always be retail money in the market.
In the end it is always more important to select the best companies and choose the most efficient ones to invest in the future.
If you go search for diamond you will find trash. If you search in trash you can also find diamonds.
Find the excellent companies run by legendary managers, that is the best way forward.
If you can hire yourself a aragorn, legolas, gandalf, gimli etc, even if the horizon is dark, the captain of industry will lead you forward.
Famous managers in bursa,
Abdul Karim,
Dr cheah
Carl bek nielsen
Kuan Kam hon
Log boon siew
Teh teow ping
Koon poh keong
Jeffrey tan
Lim goh tong
Robert Kuok
Ananda krishnan
If you could get these people to work for you, get individuals with similar quality of character you could definitely get somewhere.
>>>>>>>>
Sslee Good money Philip,
I think qqq3 mean the worst is yet to come. Market is cornered by government printing money to give away.
Read this: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/2020-05-16-story-h15070630...
18/05/2020 7:26 AM