Sslee, smart meter has many types. Please read up of non revenue water ( nrw) before commenting. Household systems are still using volumetric which is monopolised by GKENT. The upstream monitoring with smart meter purpose is to save money for utility which is a direct return of cost employed for them.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-revenue_water

Here I simplify for you.

FYI you do not seem to understand GKENT business model. I think if you have not noticed yet, unlike those China companies which is paid per month, subcon is paid by milestone which is progress completion.

If progress done, submit for claim.

Maybe you should go back to trying out INSAS products and services first before deciding if you want to sell INSAS to buy GKENT.

My advice, please don't invest in GKENT. Most likely, the moment you buy the share price will drop. And the moment you sell the shares price will jump 20%.

But maybe if you can write some nice article about INSAS future prospects and earnings clarity icon8888 300 million earnings to JAKS every year, I can consider.
>>>>>>>>

So can a household afford a USD 200 water meter? Who will maintain it and pay for it?
06/05/2020 12:00 PM

I only bought foreign stocks twice in the past 1 years. So I only paid 20 USD in commissions for 1 years.

Compare that to if I was with interactive brokers. Whether or not I bought stocks, if I did the same thing I would need to pay 120 USD in commissions or capacity payments even if I did not buy stocks at all.

For me as someone who only has 2 stocks in their portfolio ( both which do not pay dividends).

But one thing too be definitely sure of. The capital protection limit is the same 200k usd, so it might be a good idea to spread your accounts around to protect yourself.

In the end just get whatever makes you feel comfortable. But one thing I do not recommend, never overtrade. One of the big problems with new investors is that they buy and sell too many stocks, and they lose out of the hidden costs of trading.

IB system is designed to make you trade more.
Thinkorswim is more suitable for my investing style as I don't have to keep buying and selling every month. Last year when I bought stoneco I bought 200k shares in one afternoon. After that 1+ year of inactivity.

Fyi I use tdameritrade USA. Cheaper rates, not as low as IB, but acceptable for me.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by popo92 > May 7, 2020 5:24 PM | Report Abuse

Tdameritrade sg charges more than $10 commission per trade. I don’t see why it is a preference choice. Philip securities is a better choice than tdameritade as they offer multi markets with similar charges. IB has the most competitive margin rates I have encountered and their service center are prompted. Commission per trade are very competitive as well. Webull is one good choice too, in aspects they are quite close to IB. They offer free real data quote. Maybe Jon sifu can have a look with webull too

noted, keep safe and keep investing!

what does it even mean?

I invest using td ameritrade, as I like being in control of when and how I buy. I don't like being forced to buy/sell every month and being charged $10 a pmonth as a fee.

Yes it is a small amount, around RM45 after conversion. but imagine being forced to spend RM600 a year to use this service? I'm a cheap guy, as there is no way there is a good deal to buy and sell every month, I buy when it is needed, not because I have to.

TD ameritrade suits me better, they also have an office in singapore, and I can choose not to buy any stocks for 2 years and not have to pay any "penalty".


>>>>>>>>>>>

Accounts with balances of $100,000 or less must meet a minimum of $10 a month in trade commissions, or Interactive Brokers will charge the difference as a monthly fee. Accounts with an equity balance of $2,000 or less must meet minimum trade commissions of $20.

I got buy ah, you got buy meh?


>>>>>>>>

Posted by cheoky > May 6, 2020 12:37 AM | Report Abuse

MCO shutdown makes all uncle here talking as if his are the real true. Hello, throw money to support bursa stocks la.

No talk, act with your money. Energy needs to be released rather than study.

Ok you are right, he is not so smart. But his ability to turn 500 per share to 250,000 per share has nothing to do with being smart.

To be good at stock investing you don't have to be smart le. No need to know so many complicated math and figures and grand SMA/candlesticks etc.

You just need to be very very rational. If something makes sense, you buy it. If it doesn't make sense you don't buy it. Very simple, buy can you stick with the plan?. Sometimes for 2 years he doesn't buy any stock back in 65'. Sometimes in one month he buys 15 stocks. Can you stay out of the market that
Long? Or buy when everyone was selling?

Your concept of Berkshire using insurance float as piggy bank also doesn't make sense. You think it is like EPF? Only pay back when they reach 55? Got so easy? For one thing, Berkshire has underwriting profit every year compared to many of the big insurance companies. That means their premiums is enough to cover all losses payouts every year. They don't do like other insurance companies that pull underwriting losses just so they can have money to "invest" during good years. But the fact is Warren didn't take advantage of float like you think they do.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2020/02/24/559190.htm

Yes, they have 129 billion in float in 2019. But their average cost of float was 3.65%. you think it is free money? During the unprofitable years (1967-1999, got 14 years which lose money) their cost of float is 7.9%. of course the profitable years balanced everything out.

So if you think it is free money, you have another thing to think about. The thing about Berkshire is they used their 1.6 to 1 leveraging to grow at a far faster rate than if they didn't use leverage. I did the same thing more than 10 years ago, after finally understanding how to do rational investing and pay for wonderful companies.

So today, you have access to margin at cheaper rate than Warren buffet cost on float. What are you going to do with it?

Gamble on London biscuit again? Buy stocks without earnings and revenues?

Instead of proactive, creative, etc etc, first and most important is to be rational.

When everyone is selling me stocks are cheap prices ( 23 march 2020 before short selling blocked), I was able to use my MARGIN to buy GKENT at 45, Pchem at 4.09, Serbadk warrant at 18, Serbadk share at 1.19. star at 26

All below asset level, some at absurd below cash level.

If you don't have margin, how can you take advantage of Mr market irrationality? When gkent CASH ( never mind other plant, factory and assets) alone is 0.42 per share, paying 0.45 per share doesn't take intelligence. When star CASH per share is 50 cents ( never mind license, factory and condominium), paying 26 cents is just... Rational.

So you see, you don't have to be smart. You just need to understand how business works, not trend lines and candlesticks and charts.

So are you RATIONAL? Or does fear have you by the balls during Bear markets and you have sudden irrationality about your stockpicking skill during bull markets.

>>>>>>>>

But, in fact, he where got so smart?

Find out and let me know what you find thanks.

Why don't you find out why you are not using margin? And find out if Berkshire can use both cash and cheap borrowings.

I consider it borrowings. As long as I can earn a yearly return on my stock of more than 3.65% per annum, then I believe it is a good use of borrowings to grow my earnings.

So far my margin borrowings have gained me average return of 30+% and still holding.


Berkshire Hathaway also has borrowings.

Insurance and Other:
Notes payable and other borrowings 37,176
Railroad, Utilities and Energy:
Notes payable and other borrowings 65,018

They are paying very very low rates, and gaining good return on equity.

So, my advice to you is simple. If you do not know what you are doing, stay out of margin. But if you know your business well, treat margin as borrowings that can help you grow your business.

You do not consider this a good result? MCO extension means extended handover period for lrt3.

I will let you have a good guess, how much is the profit margin for a smart meter? Multiple that by 100,000. For every ten ringgit of profit, they will make 1 million in earnings.

For the elster Kent smart meter, the price range from DN sizes, with pricess between 200 USD for small household pipesize, to USD 800 for the larger inlet and outlet Size. My estimate is in the mid term when everything starts to be updated too more accurate smart meter design, we will be looking to rm50 additional profit per smart meter in the short term, and 1 million smart meters per year. Their production capacity is 2.5 million meters ( brass volumetric).

>>>>>>>>>

• We expect core earnings to grow 10% and 13% YoY during FY21F-FY22F from a low base, premised on our house view for the COVID-19 pandemic to be broadly contained in 1H20, with activities expected to gradually recover thereafter. In our opinion, growth could be driven by the resumption of contribution from the LRT3 JV project and additional booking of 80,000 and 100,000 smart water meter connections for FY21F-FY22F (from 140,000 connections). However, we expect growth to be dampened by the smaller outstanding construction orders and weaker expectation for its water meter manufacturing segment for FY21F.
05/05/2020 6:13 PM

Ok rangerj. Cynical or not you have only to look at my pump and dump promotional blogs to see. In fact, teoct is one individual that I am most impressed with. He writes very few articles, but his results are very credible. Him I wished wrote more articles ( even if he wrote bad and about my longest held stock).

To be honest, I can't wait for you guys to get this over with and make big money and good earnings from July onwards after power plant cod, and 2021 to see how OTB research plays out.

Then we will see results instead of estimations.

But here is my 2 cent analysis. Based on my experience as a guy who involved with YTL GROUP resort in sabah ( 3 day vacation)

You will not get 300 million in earnings from Jaks. It will be hidden behind costs and expenses, ppe capex and new investments and more share dilution and warrants from Jaks the company. The losses from other departments and divisions will pull down the entire business.

That is what will happen when you invest into Jaks.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 9:59 AM | Report Abuse

Philip, there is no fairy in your world. You are always cynical. I stay in a simple town with many good people around.

His explanation was very concise and useful. Maybe you should watch the whole annual meeting and actually listen instead of fishing for stock tips.

Here is how he explained it.

Airlines are in big trouble, they are caught between rock and a hard place. To survive the year and more, they will need to take a huge loan of 10-13 billion each to gain breathing room and survive until covid ends and people are brave enough to fly again.

However looking at how things are going, even when they start flying again the volume and profits will be far lower than last year for the medium time going forward.

All the while they will need to shoulder the interest costs and principal payments of that 10 billion dollar loan. That will put their profitability and growth prospects on a backbiter for a long time yet.

That in essence of why warren sold all his airline stocks. Very simple, very clear and very painful explanation of why he was willing to lose 50 billion selling all those stocks.

I am advocating transparency Mr xinquan. I thought you of all people would appreciate that. You everyday asking for fairness and equality.

If you created a new ID called rangerj just to push Insas articles, would I still treat you the same?

It is fair that if you say INSAS is a wonderful stock, I would ask you how much money you put into INSAS.

Otherwise how would I know if I am just helping you push INSAS to rm1 just so you can get out of your investment?

Same like xinquan owners. If Xinquan business so good, why do they do private placements and warrants and sell their shares to you? Simple logic, but top 30 shareholders will definitely have confirmation bias and hold their stocks until it is too late.

Very simple logic for me. Are you buying Jaks the company or are you buying Jaks the power plant when you invest into a share of Jaks? Two very different business model if you asked me.

>>>>>>>>>

slee Haha
What Philip said is there ain’t no tooth fairy in i3 except him. He is so transparent that you can see him naked.
06/05/2020 9:17 AM

Nola you are the bestest.

No one else is arrogant enough to put unverifiable information like banker handling malakoff case, ex engineer, retiree etc to make his article carry more weight, when the results are anything but.

Tell me, how is your analysis on success, ecoworld and iqgroup doing now? So many nice articles I don't know which to choose from.

Bestest writer ever. Sure can trust one.


>>>>>>>>>

Icon8888 Ya Philips is the best

Everybody else is unscrupulous and stupid
06/05/2020 8:56 AM

I believe your articles are written with a huge bias as a concerned investor. When the st ocks go down, you write multiple articles. I tend to put less trust in these articles as they do not reflect the full pros and cons of the investment, as most prospectus/ipo have to show the risks of investment as well as it's prospects.

The fact that you see nothing but bright futures and rainbows in Jaks gives me a lot of red flags. When these flags happen I usually look at the promoters investment hitory.

1. When did you start investing in Jaks.
2. How many shares you hold, what is your buying cost.
3. How large a percentage of your total portfolio is jaks.
4. What is the long term results of your past investments.

These are the first things my wife does when buying mutual funds is to understand the fund manager. More important than his theories, is his long term results of being right.

But even fund managers try their best not to reveal their holdings and only their performance. The question remains, why so many articles written on jaks as a viable investment?

If you held a financial license, if you had bought a lot of shares at low prices and started marketing and selling to a lot of financially uneducated individuals, it would actually be considered illegal. Jordan Belfort illegal.

Now from your writing I am sure that you have done a lot of research on Jaks and am not cunning like icon8888, bursamaster and calvintaneng et. al. in writing pump and dump articles. However, I believe I hold a substantial far larger amount of shares in topglove than you do in jaks, yet I have never written a single stock promotion blog about it.

Why? I don't need to.

In the same vein, other than a single blog article in PCHEM, instead of writing blog after blog when the prices went down, all I did was a to average down and buy more at discount price ( you can check my portfolio in my buying cycle in PCHEM). The volume that I bought ( in relation to my portfolio) and my confidence in buying a huge amount at 4.09 shows my bias in pchem long term,
And I don't need articles to prove how I think it is a good deal.

I wish you well Dennis, but the fact remains: if the share price could remain at 60 cents all the way until power plant starts producing money, then as your calculations say you would be getting 27 cents dividends from jaks every year as capacity payment ( which Andy ang will give to shareholders surely).

If that is the case, sharing one well written article will be more than enough, thanks and a beer any time I see you. Getting to buy even more jaks at low prices consistently would be a far more useful and productive use of your time, wouldn't you agree?


>>>>>>>>>>

DK66 Philip, am I writing too many articles too ? Each of my article is on different perspective. Is there such thing as "too much sharing" is insincere ?
06/05/2020 9:08 AM

The worst is over. The company is ready to go full throttle, targeting to grow its Built to Rent business multiple folds in coming years....

Famous last words.

Sometimes I read icon8888 articles and think they are well written, then I look deeper and see so many optimistic assumptions that it makes me wonder how he could get it so wrong over the long term?

The fact of the matter is, very few investors study what went wrong in their analysis or why they sold their investments or what changed. Then I realized icon8888 never once wrote any blog update on if he sold his held stock, and why he sold it, and what happened after.

I believe in investing it is important to learn from your mistakes as much as your successes.

I find it irritating that suddenly icon8888 spouts that he was a banker in malakoff to give his articles and writings weight.

So the question remains: is he writing because he holds some jaks shares as an investor and thus having a confirmation bias in his analysis? Does he weigh any investment risks?

The fact that concerned parties write so many repeated articles on how profitable jaks will be, what a sure bet it is, over and over and over again gives me the Calvin tan eng yee vibe.

Are you writing to share information? Or are you writing to get speculators and new investors to support your stock to go up?

This goes against the rules of successful investing, where the idea is to buy wonderful companies at cheap prices that everyone is selling. Why keep writing articles? I don't get it. If it is a wonderful company, sooner or later everyone will notice. Why keep writing multiple articles about it? Wouldn't that interfere with your ability to buy into the company over time?

If write once to bring to my attention, then I will totally appreciate and thank you for sharing good information. If you keep working more and more and more articles, it is like Calvin tan writing a million blogs promoting NETX.

Ultimately this is useless and only earnings growth and shareholder returns will bring up a stock in the long term.

Promoting multiple articles in the short term just attracts speculators and short term traders. Is this the kind of investors you really want in the company?

>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-12-16-story248015-_Icon_Eco_World_International_Why_I_Am_Adding_More.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-02-01-story192265-_Icon_Success_Transformer_Meets_My_Buy_Criteria.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-01-30-story-h1457006496-_Icon_LC_Titan_Price_Collapse_Shaken_Shareholders_and_Contrarians_Scram.jsp

Again with the lies, in the December 2014??? You bought Jaks?10 Sure thing buddy.

Your results I have talked in 2019 and 2020 already showing you losing money hand over fist. Pchem from losing 10 over million I bought a huge amount at 4.09, and made back a lot. While QL didn't drop at all from last year prices.

How come all the stocks you promoted all go to longkang? Only you can answer that. You take a look back at your comments and articles on NETX telling everyone to buy at 2 cents and 1.5 cents, and say you became top 30 shareholders of NETX. Are you honest to God and to people that you really are top 30 shareholders? Or words from your mouth different from your actions.

You are a liar through and through.

You talk about naim and dayang bought in 2014, but I have the entire list of your stocks bought in 2019 and 2020. Netx drop by 50%, cmsb drop by 90 cents. Your entire 2019 portfolio all red red.

Very sad that you continue lying and promoting.

Those who get cheated by you are getting more and more. Sadly, only after getting cheated then they noticed that your articles and portfolio results totally different.

Tell me what stock did you buy that didn't crash? That went from 2016 to 2020 still up from last year price?

Yinson? QL? Topglove? You buy and sell like Judas Iscariot, while I buy and follow topglove since 2010 hold until today didn't sell. You have your properties, I bought the topglove bungalow for 200k, no need maintenance, the rental every year consistent, every year can topup and buy more topglove condominium. Today my topglove give me so much dividend the "rental" every year is more than your entire investment in NETX. So funny, and my topglove bungalow is worth 10x more today than ten years ago. How about your cheap properties that you steal from middle class families that need a home that you are trying to sell at a high price forcing them to rent instead of buy because of speculation? Is that a Christian thing to do?

They should (quickly lock up) you instead.

So stupid to see me claim a stock is mine? No! But smart enough to see through your schemes and trying to sell promotions on 100 stocks, and claim that because you made a profit from 1 or 2 stocks then ALL YOUR SUCKS PICKS CHUN CHUN. But I remember the other 98 stocks that you promote.

Your chun Chun stocks are a waste of time. Your strategy very simple, promote 100 stocks, hide the bad keep repeating the good. But do you get more correct than you get bad results?

That, is the question.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > May 5, 2020 10:24 PM | Report Abuse

Philip is a great fool

Calvin bought Jaks at 40 sen on Dec 2014 and did I claim rights over jaks

I also bought naim at 52 sen when dayang was 68 sen

Did I claim Rights over Dayang?

For top glove I bought it long ago at Rm5. 00
I sold it for good profit

So stupid indeed to claim any stock belongs to you?

Yes, I will not bother with your QL and Petchem

QL (quickly lock up) did book cooking and sne

Calvin tan only now noticed PPHB? My wife and brother in law who works at PPHB in Penang already been investing here at 49 cents since last year, sold when OTB goreng to rm1.20, and bought again at 60 cents.

Now another fake sifu start to jump in to promote. How much will be promote before it goes back to normal again, let's see.

FYI, Calvin results so far...

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/131750.jsp 2020 results
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp 2019 results

I have given up tracking his results. If you want to track track la. Lazy liao.

After his claims of NETX going to 8 cents, he bought at 2 cents and drop to 1 cents.

Now he really want to do a pump and dump scheme in PPHB. I think it's time to sell PPHB...

This is the year Calvin start to copy everything I do. Very worrying.

I buy topglove long term he start to join in glove industry.
My wife and bil buy PPHB, he also start to join in.

Hopefully Calvin can finally improve his investing methods and avoid rubbish like NETX and invest in growing successful companies instead of net net rubbish company's selling at garbage prices.

Wow, maybe I should listen to you eh? Your prediction on GKENT going to 45 cents so you can buy more? So sell after bad qr results right?

QL overpriced and going to crash.

Pchem you can buy before my cost at 4.09.

INSAS going to MGO and push price up from rm1 to rm2.60.

Etc etc.

Please learn to value businesses and don't use comments and analysts and online sifus to decide your investment pattern.

As for Karim selling Serbadk warrant, you really need to understand in terms of context. Please look at his total portfolio. He sold 9 million ( free warrants), out of 158 million warrants and 665,505,870 shares.

After selling that 10 million warrants he only gets 2.5m ringgit. That is a drop in the ocean for him as he still owns 665m shares.

Suffice to say, read it in the total context. What does he need with 2.5 million? Who knows, maybe his kids want to go to university. However, how does it affect his total shareholdings? He still has 20+% of Serbadk, he is one of the richest people in Malaysia, and he has a huge ambition and plans to grow Serbadk.

Making decisions based on warrants sales ( with no dividend) is the same making decisions based on analysts report on gkent 50 cents, and director announcement INSAS is most undervalued company in Malaysia.

See what they do, not what they say.

Warren buffet selling ALL of his STOCKS, losing 50 billion in airlines says a whole lot about the future of airline business, no matter what CEOs of Delta will say.

It is exactly because result is good that the share price went up. Are you reading the same quarterly report as I am?

>>>>>>>>>>>

Desmond Nah result no good still up...
05/05/2020 3:12 PM

Then after power plant what happens?

I thought the word is sai lang.... Not sialang

Don't listen to stock tips where the writer doesnt hold a single share in it.

As for LCTITAN, never buy stocks without understanding it's long term prospects. Never just look at cash and asset position, always buy based on competitive advantage, long term growth prospects, management execution and competition levels.

When you don't own the land around you, and are unable to expand your plant, a have to import all your feedstocks, and the guy next to you opens up a factory that is 5 times bigger than yours, and is also building the biggest refinery and crude oil storage in the region next to you, using a simple metric of balance sheet and cash flow to justify investment is silly. When you don't actually pay attention and scuttlebutt, you will quickly daily to realize that your competitor can produce 5x your output, with a costs structure that allows them to sell at your production cost and still make a profit.

Rear view mirror is definitely not a recipe for success.

And don't listen to stock tips where you don't have a clear understanding of the promoters buying price and portfolio position.

Without knowing the investing execution capability and long term performance, it is no different than getting a monkey to throw a dart to buy stock.

>>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2020-04-13-story-h1505955007-Don_t_listen_to_stock_tips_kcchongnz.jsp

Something I find really interesting, but I have never been able to do, is to anticipate when prices are becoming expensive ( I only know when it's cheap).

Something to look at is Berkshire cash position ( not market valuation) throughout the years. It is very very suspicious. At almost every peak (2000, 2007, 2020), when markets are at its most expensive, he seems to be able to build a huge cash position. Then when the entire world crashes, he goes in and buys a busload of stocks and businesses and makes a killing.

The tone of this year's anywhere meeting and his responses show that he believes covid-19 in USA is just the starting point. Looking at how the market is piling money into stocks while businesses remain closed, show that he believes the worse is yet to come. Note that Warren didn't buy a single cent of shares when brk dropped by 30% for a short while, and the phones are not ringing yet for help.

I think rate of recovery will follow the same cycle, with China and the other countries that strictly adhere to MCO facing the quickest recovery, and USA will burn right through its stimulus package and a long long road to recovery.

>>>>>>>>

https://youtu.be/CenqkE5y9X8

The only reason why Warren buffett started investing in energy business is because of Berkshire Hathaway own competitive advantage. They have so much cash lying around that they can fund entire power plant without taking a single loan, and enjoy the entire profit production.

But in more important criteria of judgement is his total performance over time. Show me one investor that did not lose money over this period and I will show you one who is holding cash. If you cannot handle periods where your networth drops by 50% then you shouldn't be investing.

But the trick is what is the long term growth rate.

At the peak of y2k everyone was saying value investing is dead. In 2007 they said Warren buffet lost his touch. Today who has 120 billion in cash to invest in, while many companies are going bankrupt and belly up?

>>>>>>>>

But, u never can be certain. Wallen the Bufalo just reported a $ 50 billion lost because of the virus...............

Here, let me put it on a basis of risk. The best business to invest in are those which require minimum output of capital, but give you huge returns. That is why companies like Alibaba, Facebook, Google, Amazon are so popular. The revenues and cash flow generated versus the cost outlay.

If at any way possible, I like to invest in businesses like these.

Take for example QL( or Dutch lady), with an net value of 1.6 billion, it is able to generate 4 billion in revenue and 240 million in earnings. A very satisfactory return on capital employed.

Now let's look at mfcb, with a similar net value of 1.7 billion, it generates 874 million and 129 million in earnings. How this translates to me is mfcb needs to employ a much larger capital to get a smaller return. If you look at the business closer, you need to spend a lot of money to get a product that will take 4 years to build, and you are not earning anything while it is building ( forget about construction profits, I think it is bullshit accounting), and once running you need to wait another 10+ years to break even, all the while shouldering interest payments on huge loans that are guaranteed, versus production that is not guaranteed. You got a few dry months here and there, a maintenance turnaround, a force majeure, then your entire investment goes up in smoke. Very stressful.

Let's take another example of air Asia. With the net value of 6.2 billion in 2018, it generated 10.6 billion and 1.9 in earnings. In many ways of you skip the covid19 virus and just looked at fixed fuel costs, it is far cheaper to grow revenue and earnings with equal level of dollar investment, even with the threat losing a plane. Of course, looking on hind sight, the lack of controls in fuel cost hedging and the black swan covid-19 in grounding almost all airlines would have made investing in AirAsia a big no-no.

But the point I'm trying to put across is to understand risk in terms of returns. If we can put very little capital out but get a big return, and if the business model is replicable and scalable, then it is considered low risk. If you have to put a lot of money upfront, and get a consistent return years from now, unless the company already has a consistent cash flow churning up to reward you whole waiting, then I would consider it a high risk.

Hi popo92, mfcb, your guess is as good as mine. I personally hate property developers, but as mfcb has gotten out of that market it gets a plus on my book. And with the latest capacity payment of 29 million from Don sahong it seems like a good deal. However the 800 million in borrowings, 130 million in cash send to me a huge gearing issue. In my opinion energy business should be done only by companies with excess in cash, and not by overloading with debt. Looking at the payments, it seems they will be able to clear debt in 15 years, which is a good thing for a 25 year contract.

I prefer to look at less riskier businesses personally.

I will choose to agree to disagree with made up numbers and assumptions. Let us monitor with the next few quarter report and results to see what the results in share price will be. FYI, with the huge amount earnings to be gained in the next few quarters, share buyback and dividends payouts will definitely give a big boost to the share price valuation.

I look forward to seeing if your 6% earnings increase estimates are correct.

Hi maximus, you have a very diversified portfolio, how do you keep track of any of it?
I feel that too much diversification usually leads to DIWORSIFICATION. Instead of buying stocks and companies that you are not familiar with, you should try to scuttlebutt more on things that you are familiar with and are exposed with that can benefit you more. For example, since you are in Telco field, you should start looking around in that industry. Companies like Cisco and oracle ( which you cannot run away from if you are in Telco field) have a bigger market and are far more profitabl bet over the long term. Timecom, etc are also a good investment of you monitor that versus TM etc.

2 mental models which I learned was total addressable market and knowing your busiess ( versus liking your business). Let me clarify:

1. Digi, maxis, TM and tenaga for example. What is their market share of the industry? Who else can they sell to? How are they diversifying their revenue streams? Take for example tenaga, they basically have a monopoly on power generation in Malaysia. As their contracts are fixed, rate is fixed growth is fixed. Investing in those companies are more of a defensive nature. But if you can apply the menttal model of total addressable market, you can start to look at businesses as living entities that grow over time and produce revenue and earnings. Looking at that, if you spend time to anticipate where growth is coming from in the future and where TM, Digi and maxis can expand to in the next 5-10 years. If your only reason to! buy the stock is because the sucker is going up, and there will be more people 5 years from now, the youn you really need to take a good hard look into your business.

2. Knowing your business is different from liking it. Just because you like solar and you have FIT installed in your house doesn't mean investing in cypark is a good idea. Just because you like gambling sometimes in genting, it doesn't mean investing in genting is a good idea. You need to understand it like a business. Who owns it. What is the percentage of ownership? Who are it's management. What is the history of performance. Cash/debt levels? Peg growth, earnings growth, new business divisions. All these are important factors for me.

That is not to say you have made any bad investment decisions, as you have rightly invested in very defensive stocks, and building your position over this mega discount period, will gives you even larger returns in the long term. Keep investing and keep learning!

Good luck,


>>>>>>>>>>

My Current Holding Counters are:
Maybank
TENAGE
HLFG
HLIND
BJTOTO
GENTING
YTLPOWER
MAXIS
TM
GPACKET
CYPARk
HAPSENG
IGBREIT (Sold All, after MCO extended)

I think you may be underestimating covid-19. I believe it will last at least another year, and more importantly covid-19 will represent a huge shift in public and governmental perception of healthcare and their response to it.

Take for example the new restrictions and requirements post subprime crisis, the resulting glass eagle and bank minimum cash level controls.

This will change the world.

A simple example would be medikits. Previously no one will keep nitrile gloves in medikits. These days it becomes a necessary requirement to keep some.

What about the future?


>>>>>>>>

same way demand for gloves could be overestimated by the media...due to momentary panic by the whole world...due to stocking by general public
03/05/2020 11:52 AM

Come on, ventilators are not a consumable, and usually only used in hospitals.

How are you using this to corellate to give demand?

As for 60% rise, I cannot answer for other companies, but I can give a simple answer for to Topglove. As you can see from my portfolio, from 2019 the rise of my portfolio is only 30+%.

The drop in share price before is due to their horrible m&a of aspion, and the share dilution from their bond offering. So if you look at topglove and hartalega, it is actually a rise based on earnings and revenue indications, and a fair assessment.

Supermax and comfort etc are all just speculators who jump in buying whatever low PE glove stocks they can find, assuming that they will do well over the long term.

Those I shake my head at, and hope they do it as a shorter term trade instead of a long term investment.

But having said that, the rise of comfort,Supermax and others is more due to
lower liquidity smaller companies that are easy to "goreng".

In my opinion is it is silly to use mathematics to calculate greed, optimising and negativity.

>>>>>>>>>>

even ventilator demand had fizzled out...

Exactly, new protocols mean more usage and disposal practises.

Instead of looking at made up numbers, it is more important to follow long term trends. You just have to make a short visit to topglove manufacturing facility to see that it is running at near 100% capacity. And the fact that customers are being limited in buying product shows that rsp prices are going up.

More importantly, unlike masks which anyone can fabricate, gloves have to follow stringent quality approval checks, and raw material only exists along the equator line.




>>>>>>>>>>

LiveSimply While above is factually correct, I believe it ignores the fact that standard protocol for hospital is one glove for each new patient.
03/05/2020 11:23 AM

The assumption that only medical staff will have more requirements for gloves is faulty. How about new regulations and requirements to food handling, agriculture, vetenarians, general population, education, government offices, research departments. If you are going with made up numbers, how about taking in totality?

As new requirements and criteria for health and safety become the norm, requirements for gloves become more stringent. The total usage and requirements of gloves will definitely go up.

By how much? Since you are using made up numbers and projections, I would rather not go there and just use management guidance.

I paraphrase "Some customers panic order; normally they order 10 containers a month but now they suddenly increase to 20 containers,” he said.

The World Health Organisation warned on Friday that the “chronic global shortage of personal protective gear” is among the most urgent threats to the virus containment efforts.

“Definitely there is a shortage. They order 100 per cent more, we can only increase 20 per cent so there is a shortage of about 50 per cent to 80 per cent,” he said.

The exceptional buying momentum could last another three months but orders are expected to remain strong for up to nine months even as demand from Asian markets has started to slow slightly, Lim said.

To cope, the company has adjusted its delivery time from as short as 30 days to as long as 150 days.

Lim said the company was ensuring all its customers get a fair share of extra gloves delivered.

“We manage their volume, limit them to buy so much per customer".

9 months of super high orders which will see a natural slowdown in the future as the virus subsides. But will the earnings and profits in topglove still be there? Are you still investing in an excellent long term company? Obviously.

What is really shocking is most amateurs sat around twiddling their thumbs and questioning three covid-19 virus, while those who held stocks long term in topglove are enjoying growth in profits in earnings.

Why didn't I sell all my stocks in companies like QL and Topglove when individuals like probability was commenting badly about how overvalued it was and how it will surely go down?

Because when you own wonderful companies, you don't sell just because the price is going up.


https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/03/579210/covid-19-malaysias-top-glove-overwhelmed-international-orders

>>>>>>>>>

Even if each medical staff in the whole wide world need additional 1 set of gloves per day from status quo (bear in mind gloves were commonly used before covid), it only raises the demand by 40/616 = 6.4%

stockraider, stop talking bullshit all the time. Please take a look at their new MEGA FACTORY in johor, the one that will produce right next to LCTITAN, with 5x more space, 5x more size and 5x more resources and storage.

https://pic.petronas.com/media/media-release/Pages/2019/Pengerang-Integrated-Complex-(PIC)-Achieved-.aspx

Pchem new MEGA FACTORY is completed and full run in 2021, it will produce 3.3 MTPA compared to LCTITAN 0.6MTPA

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cgscimb-research-cuts-lotte-chemical-titans-fy19-earnings-forecast-lowers-target-price-rm283

Except the upcoming Pengerang PIC which is naphta based, the rest of PCHEM plants are gas based. See the pictures I attached

Do you even understand what you are talking about? JUST IPIC alone PCHEM will be selling 5x the volume of LCTITAN when it is full running, and the refinery next door naphta cracker joint ventrue with ARAMCO (the worlds most valuable company), PCHEM selling price (based on their 25% net profit historically), PCHEM will be able to sell to customers at LCTITAN production costs and STILL make a profit.

I know you join icon8888 last time buy lctitan at RM2.60, no choice la let you promote.
Then you join calvintaneng last time buy netx at 0.02, no choice la let you promote.
Then you join sslee last time buy insas warrant at ,0.05, no choice la let you prmote.
then you join KYY last ime buy henyuan and promote until RM35 per share, let you promote.
Lets not forget you promote Sapura at RM3 in 3 years. Wow.

You fake news so much, lose so much meh?

Lucky you listen to me and buy STAR at 26 cents, now go up to 40 cents. Very panlai right?

But if you don't do any research at all, please dont comment so loud, OK? Please don't lead investors to holland like your calvintaneng can or not?

>>>>>>>>>>>


stockraider Philip,

Need to understand loh...Yes Pchem can used naptha too, instead of usual natural gas....but do u know ?...Pchem business is integrated with Petronas Mah.....they are supplying natural gas to Pchem...just bcos naptha has a big advantage over gas recently....Fuck pchem switch all to naptha ah ??

Probability, who are you to say that buying topglove is not worh now and you only see 20% rise in earnings? The average selling price for gloves has already increased tremendously, and the working hours and production increase has also increased to maximum capacity.

AS someone who has held topglove since 2010, I think you are simply commenting recently and know nuts about topglove business and its capabilities.

Who is selling who hope? Please show me topglove doing a profit guarantee claim on bursa announcement?

I rarely comment on topglove page, but I think I know a little bit more about topglove business than you do, being a long term shareholder and monitoring and holding for many years now.

FYI, how did you know by SEPT covid vaccine will be found? do you even understand the concept of clinical tests, and mass production and application? AVIGAN and REMDESIVIR have already proven to only reduce and not vaccinate, and comes with a host of side effects.

Even when the vaccine is found, it will still take time, and glove production will still be high for many years to come.

Please comment with a little bit more responsibility.

I paraphrase munger,

" Imagine you can borrow 10K to any university student in a particular class to get 10% of his earnings until his death. Who will you choose? Do you pick the top student in class or the average achiever? Most of the time the top student in class is the more reliable bet. Now imagine that top student got the scholarship and went on to work for a Forbes 500 company. Do you now sell his share and bet on that average student that just came out to work as a junior position? Of course not. Now, imagine that student now became the president of the company. Do you now sell your claim to his earnings and invest in the average student just on the potential that he MIGHT become the president of the company?"

Putting it this way, it now sounds silly selling something just because the price went up, and buying something just because the price went down.

The simple fact is, most of the time, there is a perfectly valid reason why some things are cheap and some things are expensive.

You just have to understand WHY.

So invest4future, you should start to pay less attention to share price, and start paying more attention to understanding the business itself. In fact, you would be much better off just forgetting the share price ticker, PE and technical analysis models, stock pick recommendation etc. When you start learning how to recognize wonderful companies that can grow 10-20 years into the future, you will stop feeling the pain of short term price volatility.

Hi invest4future, share price is rarely my major criteria when I buy stocks. In fact, the truth of the matter is, I hate selling stocks that I hold. When I do sell, it is usually because I have no choice because I find a stock that I like or I think has a much further chance of growing, so I usually sell a bit to nibble a new stock that I purchase. If it performs, I invest more. If your idea is to buy the same stocks I hold, my recommendation is for you not to follow me, as my risks levels and profits levels are far different from yours. I started buying PCHEM last year at RM8.15, but my investment into yinson was in 2013 what it was little more than RM1, QL below 80 cents, topglove also below 80 cents etc (after share splits), I can hold because of the dividends that I am receiving is far more than my buying costs.

As for PCHEM, my critera for selling is more complicated, here are my factors for selling below:

1. Please watch the netflix episode of dirty money (my favourite documentary introduced by my son, so interesting), the episode on petrochemicals formosa,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formosa_Plastics_Corp

Here a strong indicator for me to sell is when PCHEM starts to look at getting profit at all costs, hurting and killing people near its production plants. Now, so far PCHEM is exemplary in its safety and health process, and they have given out a policy of 50% payout, leaving enough money for sustainable growth and good management. As long as this continues, I will hold the stock.

2. Future growth of the market - As long as PCHEM is investing into new petrochemical markets I am more than content to follow its growth. As their track record of M&A and new construction (SAMUR, Da vinci) and securing specialty high value products in cosmetics, beauty and healthcare (note the new isononanol plant in PIC), I have no worries that it will continue to grow in the region. I may sell if it starts to have a new competitor (and no LCTITAN is far from a competitor) that starts forcing PCHEM to throw price to gain revenue. As long as the revenue numbers (post COVID) continue to go up, I am content to hold on for dear life. If the company starts to have management problems or shrinking market share, then I will sell.

3.Net profits - As long as PCHEM continues to be able to increase revenues while maintaining 25% net profit, then I will always hold this stock.

So my young friend, share price is usually the last reason for me to sell a stock. Look at it this way, when you see a car accident, do you check to see if the heart is still beating? No, you check arms and legs, any holes or wounds or blood loss. Those will usually signal danger to you faster than putting your ear and listening to the heart beat.

There are many ways to check. Selling a stock just because the price has gone up or done is a stupid way of investing.




>>>>>>>

Invest4Future Hi Philip, I am new in shares invest. I would like to learn from you. Based on your studies, what is the best price for PCHEM you will consider to sell your shares let’s say the price shoot up to 11.20 (100%) from current price. Will you consider to sell it off? Or you already set the price if more than 10 then you will sell? From your previous posts i know you invest in PCHEM for long terms because you are confident this company has a bright future. Will you hold this stock if it achieve highest price ever in one day and the company report is showing it still hv more room to growth. Just curious what is your ultimate mission for long terms investment in this PCHEM. Thanks in advance!
02/05/2020 6:00 PM

if you are in mechanical engineering like I used to be, you would be very familiar with the company Honeywell. As you can see from here,

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/hon?ltr=1

honeywell is a very strong company with global reach and influence, and their R&D is also not too bad. As GKENT has signed a long term license agreement with honeywell to sell automated meter reading systems, NRW(non revenue water) and smart meter (IOT) systems.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/06/04/george-kent-banks-on-metering-business

http://www.georgekent.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/20190716-The-Sun-George-Kent-water-meter-biz-gets-Honeywell-boost.pdf

As such, let me just paraphrase what GKENT management has said about their water meter business.

They are currently doing 17% of earnings from water meter solutions. This amounts to historically 30+ million revenue/6 million earnings (20% of earnings), quarterly. basically what they are trying to do is increase this amount in the middle term with new systems to 60+ million revenue/ 15 million earnings (50% of earnings) quarterly.

How are they planning to achieve this?

In September 2019, the Selangor water authority contracted the group to supply, deliver and install 5,540 water meters fitted with the group’s smart metering solution for a six-month pilot test.

The pilot project’s delivery and installation are almost complete.

GKent noted that potential growth from smart metering is significant, given the group’s status as the first mover and market leader in the region.

I believe based on Honeywell history and GKENT history of execution, the increase to 26 territories, including 15 new territories in the Asia to supply the new volumetric meters in existing and new channel markets will make this very achievable. They will be producing cheaper and supplying to honeywell existing distributors and system integrators throughout the world at a far cheaper price than honeywell would be able to do producing it in USA and shipping it over.

So at these prices alone, if assuming GKENT doesn't win any new tenders, they will have 240 million+ in revenue after 2024, and 60 million in earnings, post LRT3.

Buying at 60+ cents a share, this is just a waiting game.

And since they have net 200 million in cash and 0.90 in asset values, I am very content to build my position in the long term.

But do you seriously think that GKENT with its cash position and job completion capability + experience in railway systems in LRT3, LRT, MRT2 and LRT2 vo, do you really think with the deluge of new railway projects being proposed (ECRL, penang rail, Singapore -Malaysia-Thailand rail), do you really think they will not be able to get even a single portion?

Plus, they also have a long experience in handing over water treatment plant systems (which I used to work with them on in Sarawak), hospital construction (sure to be a critical issue post Covid-19 recovery), and construction and engineering.

I think, just because there is no upcoming new projects doesn't mean they will not have any. It is more a case of having too much on their plate to digest (LRT3 + MRT2 + hospitals), and they want to complete a few before going full bore to get new exciting projects.

This is a wonderful opportunity for me to build my position in the long term, and of course when they announcce new project, it will be too late to buy cheap.

so you cannot even answer why INSAS stock underperformance for 5 years? Do you even know INSAS business or the products they sell? Have you tried buying their products on a daily basis or visited their production center, or talked to their suppliers, contractors, staff? Do you even know why DS thong sell his entire 4.5 million stake in inari?

This is the same as sarifah just buying JAKS just because of a power plant, and he doesn't even own the power plant but a minority stake of the plant, as JAKS will own 30% of the powerplant, and sarifah owns 0.00000001% of jaks, so she can't even influence any decision andy ang makes on jaks earnings, much less "taruk" andy ang. He will just ask you, "berapa share you ada kat JAKS? 100K share? diam lah klu tak ada duit beli, buat gelak ja keyboard warrior but no investment capability.

This in a nutshell explains the conundrum of INSAS selling far far FAR below balance sheet of .. .RM3.6? or whatever figure you want to put today or next week.

People who think investing is easy, buy today sell tomorrow, those are not investors. Those are speculators.

Speculators who are stuck in an investment to become long term holders are not called investors. Those are called egoistic amateurs. if you hold a stock for more than 3 years, and you still don't see any improvement in earning, revenues and changes in the company? Then you are just another donald trump wannabe, investing large capital based on gut feel.

>>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Haha
Of cause this is not an answer but a challenge.
02/05/2020 8:18 AM

Why would it? If you look at the numnbers, the GDP and the world production capability is not damaged. Currently now it is just a matter of no one knowing what to do, uncertainty in proper measures of tackling covid and what the long term picture is. My nearest analogy is of a schoolboy who has fallen sick and is resting at home until he recovers (which the rate of recover is 98%). To be brutal about it, in terms of economic progress, and pardon my insensitivity to the matter, the elderly (including myself) will always be a burden to the young, because since we are no longer producing, we have to rely on the young to produce for the both of us (thus EPF etc). In the old days, statistically I would not live past 65. These days, the rate is more to 75+.

In other words, by killing us old and sick off, the future generation will have less mouths to feed and less costs to bear, and more growth will be possible (since we consume more than we produce by nature).

This is different from a World War or major sickness which kills 98% of the population. In this scenario gross domestic product will be affected, and there will be a huge effect to society and production. In this end of days case, then definitely buy and hold will no longer work. Or it will, but now buying property, and holding food and farms will be far more useful than stock trading.

Buy and hold definitely will ALWAYS work. However, it depends on your ability to see what is worth buying and holding for the long term. If the world ends, buying and holding on to that merida racing bike might be a brilliant idea, but if the world doesn't end, holding on to cash might have been the stupid mistake you will beat yourself over the head with as you reminisce about how you could have bought when the everyone is selling. I choose to buy wonderful companies when everyone in the world is selling me their stock at cheap prices.

MCO started in March 18, and GKENT started work back in April 19, so just a month of production lost. No worries, GKENT is in a business model which is resistant to COVID- 19, aka their demand of water meters still outstrips supply, and this is merely an opportunity to build up inventory to sell at higher prices. FYI, unlike speculator SSLEE who has never used any of INSAS services and products, I have visited GKENT water meter manufacturing plant in puchong. It is quite automated, so I have no worries about GKENT products and its ability to execute in the long term.

Don't worry, GKENT will not break its history of profitability just because SSLEE says so.

>>>>>>>

George Kent, meanwhile, updated that it has received the approval from the government to resume its manufacturing activities of its water meters since April 19.

“This [has] enabled the group to reactivate its production line on April 20, 2020, albeit on a limited scale,” it said.

Subsequently, the opening up of key economic sectors from April 29 under strict labour movement conditions has allowed the group's operations to return to normalcy, it said, but highlighted that “it will take time for the production to gradually reach full capacity”.

if you look at the results, it is far from poor. The engineering division results have begun climbed, due to a pickup in work submission and claims from LRT3 subcontractors and others.

previous quarter - 39.8 million / 8.8 million profit (22% gross profit)
this quarter - 52 million / 12.5 million profit ( 24% gross profit)

The revenue and claims are steadily increasing, especially considerang work stoppage in the previous year for LRT3 redesign and redeployment.

yoy quarter - 79.6 million / 38.8 million profit ( 48% gross profit)
yoy quarter - 65.1 million/ 24.8 million profit (33% gross profit)

you may choose to see the worse in things, or you may choose to understand that it takes time for a 11.9 billion project to take time to restart and go back on the rails. Yes, GKENT costs have started to increase as they need to start payments and costs to their subcontractors, but on the same vein, those job completions will be followed by claim submissions that will increase over time.

Yes, for now covid19 and slow progress for LRT3 will be a downer. However, there is a given extension of work progress, and profit increase claims to continue upward trend in the months and years to come.

This is very true, which is why I am also actively monitoring. Based on my overall cost structure today of 70 cents, it is below the NTA value of GKENT of 92 cents, which is selling at a huge nett cash asset value, so I am incentivised to just wait and see, as the constant share buyback is increasing my shareholding in the company, and the dividend yield is not too bad. Since I can wait 4-5 years to see how GKENT will perform over time, I am OK sitting on my margin play here. Past history has shown that GKENT is a well performing company. Lets see how the future unfolds.

>>>>>>>>

Alex™ Stoneco, the Brazilian Fintech IPO that Berkshire participated. It's in my buying basket now.

I also joined GKent. The scuttlebutt due diligence by Fisher is good. However, if Fisher were still alive today, he would probably see past the LRT3 earning, and weighs GKent on its long term water meter businesses, hospitals, as well as infrastructure based order book. GKent needs to perform beyond what marginal companies couldn't with standard 10% profit off contract value and still keep a handsome bottom line for its shareholders.

xterrorsinx, you do know that LCTITAN has to import all of its feedstock right?

While PCHEM production supply refinery is just next door which is Pangerang Integrated Complex, crude oil is delivered there, and it also produces naphta directly ( it says so in the website, got naphta crackers).

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/pengerang-integrated-petroleum-complex-pipc-pengerang/

How much is LCTITAN delivery cost? How much is PCHEM delivery cost?



>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by xterrorsinx > May 2, 2020 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/04/14/10495899/podcas... PCHEM's advantage is over as it uses Ethane as feedstock. IT's LCTITAN's Time to shine

EPF can do whatever they want, as long as QL management believe that it is still valuable and shouldn't be sold at any price, their 70% ownership of the company will continue to be a fortress holding up the price well, unlike ds thong sell all INARI at the first sign of trouble.

If you can collect it BELOW 50 cents next week, I will buy you bak kut teh. But short term traders and speculators rarely make good long term decisions. But since you can see the future, good luck to you.

>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Haha
Must ask Philip why this quarter end 31th Jan 2020 result soo poor?
Next quarter end 30th April 2020 sure red red.
Time to collect below 50 cents again.
01/05/2020 12:59 PM

That is not an answer.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 1, 2020 8:44 PM | Report Abuse

Haha Philip,
I start to invest in Insas 8n yeat 2017 and top up Insas year by year and will continues to do so for the next 5 year. May I ask when is your last time top up QL? Dare to top up more for the next 5 years?