I didn't say you were wrong about vitrox. I said that you didn't know anything about vitrox but commented as if you do (until you learnt something new).

But you posted this sentence, "Vitrox your favorite with no revenue or net profit growth but people still chase it to PE of 47 is disaster waiting to unfold."

How long have you been studying vitrox to suddenly point out it is a disaster waiting to unfold?

>>>>>>>>

So am I saying bad things about Vitrox without fact?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Mentalmodels/2020-04-11-story-h1505926147-Building_A_MENTAL_MODEL_of_Covid_19_or_how_to_invest_AROUND_the_VIRUS.jsp

Hi Chong. I am still holding my shares in Stone Co. In the end, herd immunity or social distancing aside, we will get through this crisis.

If we don't and the virus mutates, then there is no point holding any asset.

So if we have to believe in something, believe that one day things will recover. So if it does, then holding on to stoneco will probably be a very profitable activity.

It depends your skill level as an investor.

Maybe if you show me your portfolio first I can tell you what is wrong.

But if you are a gambler, then your jiwa angkuh dan liar is not going to help you.

How long have you been trading in the market?

And before the invariable comment on losing money comes around, let me clarify. When warren buffett says never lose money, he doesn't mean that literally. What he means is to always buy something for cheaper that it is intrinsically worth years from now. Buy companies with a proven competitive advantage, good revenues and growing earnings. Low debt, good cash levels and good share holder management (share buybacks, dividends, no ESOS). etc. etc.

Losing money is when you buy things with finite life, taking on margin, short term trades that become long term traps. unsold options, cutloss etc.

The fact is, if you buy a stock and you didn't sell it, in the short term the price will always be volatile. But in the long term it will either go up or down.

Or you might be losing money in opportunity costs.

Rule no. 1: Never lose money.

As for Serba Dinamik, look at the strategy and management explanations from Karim.

https://youtu.be/B9ncqlT_cSg

He started his business in 1993 doing rotating equipment servicing, in bintulu with 3 staff. And growing it to 1 billion in revenue today. Does he sound like a fraud or an earnest man to you?

Somehow he doesn't give me the feel of those snakes who are starting a company just to cheat and sell shares. In fact, he seems like just another engineer, and one I would like to know more about.

If you look at his history, he went into CIS and middle east at the right time, just when GE and Siemens and ABB were leaving the country and they step in with cheap price, 20 year experience and know how in servicing, supplying and maintaining rotating turbines and equipment, doing overhaul in bintulu.

I feel the 10+ billion in orderbook with a yearly replenishment of 2.5 billion per year, a double digit growth versus peers, and low PE, 3% dividend is a good number allowing serba to stabilize its market reach, while being in the right position where the cost of oil production is still positive (compared to the rest of the world, at USD5 per barrel).

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/06/20/serba-dinamik-can-meet-order-book-target
https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/01/555375/serba-dinamik-ambitious-achieving-rm15-bil-year-end
http://staging.serbadinamik.com/?p=5023

So far, with the oil production reduction agreement, there will be less production (more O&M programs) to overhaul and clean rotating equipments. And best of all, with the new updated and upgraded internal facilities, they have scale and better facilities compared to their smaller and less financially equipped competitors, who will be reeling with the coming storm.

In my opinion, those who managed to generate good debt before the covid-19 storm will have some breathing room to navigate the economic coma coming.

SSlee, I find your activities in saying bad things about other stocks without any results of your own very baffling. Your chasing low PE stocks doesn't seem to have the results that you thought it would, either. So, are you a disaster waiting to unfold?

there is always a likelihood of anything happening. But I dont understandd the question, payment is guaranteed, so delayed or not gkent will be getting paid.

As I am a long term type of shareholders with a planned holding pattern of beyond 2024 (where lrt3 completion is expected, I dont see the point of your question.

If you are a short term investor, then the simple answer is I dont know if it will rain or shine tomorrow.

The good news is, Moscow and Saudi is cutting volumes by 10 million barrels day.

Bad news is, the world economy due to covid19 is reducing oil volume usage requirements by 16-18 million barrels a day.

Good news is, USA and the rest of the countries has not finalized their oil production reduction plans.

Bad news is, Mexico is not reducing its 100k barrels per day as required.

Worse news is, more than 10% reduction in production is required.

Good news is, Serbadk contracts are based on man day charge contracts which has a fixed yearly term, and not based on the price of oil.

>>>>>>>>

https://www.ft.com/content/c7a1e2e6-8c17-48d5-8c16-edce911b5cbb

A good example to learn from is to study the 5 year earnings of mikro MSc, a company started by another Sabahan friend of mine. The share price and dividends and profits were growing very well on a multi year rise, then when the mida Pioneer status ended, the profit margins crashed, and they found themselves unable to raise prices, as that would put them within the price range of ABB ( spaj relays) and Schneider electric ( sepam relay) prices. So they are forced to keep the prices low or encur problems with their expansion.

Share price has still not recovered.

>>>>>>>>

One important valuation factor when I begin to study manufacturing and tech companies.

Yup u understand it very well. So you should go back to NETX and push back the share price to 2 cents. No one is listening to you here.

>>>>>>>>

stockraider U don understand high tech industry mah....!!

It is like that mah.....!!

One important valuation factor when I begin to study manufacturing and tech companies.
1. Does it have government support,
2. How long does the government support last.
3. When the government support ends, how can they maintain profit margins or remain competitive.

>>>>>>>>

https://www.mida.gov.my/home/incentives-in-manufacturing-sector/posts/

MIDA grant of 100 million for inari to build new factory, 7 million for R&D grant.
INARI pays 11% income tax thanks to short term incentives.
Vitrox pays 3% income tax thanks to short term incentives.

What do you think their profit margins will be when income tax incentives end, and those companies have to start standing in their own two feet and compete internationally and fairly?

Do you think they will be able to raise their prices to maintain profit margins and still be competitive in the international markets?

MIDA incentives don't last forever.

I was "chasing" it at rm1.02. I thought it was cheap then with share buybacks and 5% dividends, so as the price today is at 70 cents, with NOSH lower than when I bought it, and no projects cancelled, lrt3 and mrt2 and final claim from hospitals progress going smoothly now all cylinders running, I believe you can expect 20-25 million of earnings per quarter, as per 2017 prior to lrt3 project put on hold.

You can act on that information in any way you choose.

Hi I think you may be very mistaken in business nature of QL versus lhi. Ql is a vertically integrated company which has feedmill, surumi, frozen seafood, fishmeal, and retail in family mart business.

LHI is just a chicken and eggs producer.

>>>>>>>

Business nature quite similar to QL

Hi if you are looking for short term profits, you may be better off buying some INSAS.

Thank you

Fyi osat means outsourced assembly and test.
So if you are a major manufacturer you would look to these things:
1. Outsource to the nearest supply chain to your production center
2. Outsource to the cheapest source.
3. Outsource to the highest quality supplier.
4. Outsource to the best r&d supplier.
5. Outsource to a related/stable/political source ( subsidiary).

This is how I would start my qualitative scuttlebutt OSAT companies if I am looking to invest in one for the long term.

Which does inari, vitrox and others fall into?

Very good. If inari biggest customer as we all know is broadcom, at 1 billion revenue a year, 650 million of that will come from a single customer. Apple has already known it's revenues from smartphone sales will continue to drop, and it is banking on its biggest profit margin, software to pick up the slack.

If you know the long term prospects of inari will no longer be an increase in sales from broadcom ( as announced by Apple), then you need to also look at the qualitative factors of buy and hold into INARI and thus INSAS.

Otherwise holding on to insas over 3 years is going to prove to be a very unproductive affair, and you will not have the courage to buy deep, throw everything into INSAS when it was selling at 0.35.

I am willing to throw large amounts into GKENT buying at lows because I know the long term prospects.

Now, you bought at gkent at 0.46. sold at 0.52 ( 10% gain wow). Then it subsequently went up to 0.72.

What do you do now? Do you buy INSAS? GKENT? What defines your investing principles? Past results and assets? Or future growth prospects?

>>>>>>>>

For FY2018 the top 3 customers accounted for 99% of Inari gross revenue in ratio of 65%, 27% and 7 % respectively.

Yes this is true, but Apple will not sign a fixed minimum supply agreement, if their smartphone sales drop as per management guidance, then rf orders will also drop.

Personally at the price sold per phone, without a clear differentiator between Android phones and Apple phones, the long term prospects of the hardware supply will only reduce with time.

This is not a possibility, this is a certainty.

>>>>>>>

popo92 Having said that, Broadcom is not selling their rf business anymore. Broadcom hock said this
09/04/2020 4:31 PM

Sslee, a very simple question which you post long article which has no meaning except more conjectures.

How much of revenues is INARI getting from broadcom per year and what are its revenue mix? If you still cannot answer then you really do not know inari or insas well enough.

Who are INARI customers and what is its breakdown?

A test of how well you understand the qualitative side of business. Insas most important revenue is coming from inari

Without checking with Google, what is the name of INARI CEO? How long has he been in the industry? How many CEO before him? How many shares does he hold? What is avago yearly revenue contribution to inari? How many percent of that contribution is total revenue derived by INARI?

This is all very important facts that I value just as much as pe and roe.

Everything in business is done based on leverage, even musim mas group.


(https://www.dnb.com/business-directory/company-profiles.musim_mas_holdings_pte_ltd.42a098a5874ddd679a08fe0daa9a122d.html#credit-reports),

If you apply leverage and debt correctly, you can grow a business into a juggernaut.

As Warren buffet likes to put it, debt and leverage is not the risk. Risk is when you do things that you do not understand. If you look at my portfolio, by applying margin and leverage correctly to buy back shares at huge 50% discounts, I am able to go back to the green on my stocks over a longer period of time, effectively averaging down. I am not worried in borrowing millions of ringgit on margin from banks to do this endeavour, firstly because the long term prospects of the company is still intact, and secondly because my initial buy in price was cheap intrinsically, so having a bigger discount due to transient market conditions ( not fundamental changes in business prospects).

What do I term transient? The salad oil crisis for AMEX, stoneco/facebook IPO crash, covid19, China us trade war.

What do I term fundamental? Broadcom selling it's entire RF business to Apple. Cambridge analytica scandal, Debenhams and Carrefour business model.


>>>>>>>>>


Sslee 4. Please read the book by KCCHONG or KCChong blogs to avoid the pitfalls by following tips from internet Sifu and understand the basic of financial report and on leverage.

Everything in business is done based on leverage, even musim mas group.


(https://www.dnb.com/business-directory/company-profiles.musim_mas_holdings_pte_ltd.42a098a5874ddd679a08fe0daa9a122d.html#credit-reports),

If you apply leverage and debt correctly, you can grow a business into a juggernaut.

As Warren buffet likes to put it, debt and leverage is not the risk. Risk is when you do things that you do not understand. If you look at my portfolio, by applying margin and leverage correctly to buy back shares at huge 50% discounts, I am able to go back to the green on my stocks over a longer period of time, effectively averaging down. I am not worried in borrowing millions of ringgit on margin from banks to do this endeavour, firstly because the long term prospects of the company is still intact, and secondly because my initial buy in price was cheap intrinsically, so having a bigger discount due to transient market conditions ( not fundamental changes in business prospects).

What do I term transient? The salad oil crisis for AMEX, stoneco/facebook IPO crash, covid19, China us trade war.

What do I term fundamental? Broadcom selling it's entire RF business to Apple. Cambridge analytica scandal, Debenhams and Carrefour business model.


>>>>>>>>>


Sslee 4. Please read the book by KCCHONG or KCChong blogs to avoid the pitfalls by following tips from internet Sifu and understand the basic of financial report and on leverage.

So meaning you comment again without understanding,

What part of my sentence is wrong? It is all true. However, since you did not read any quarterly reports you assume it is the same as inari and assume it is the ONLY revenue source(broadcom). It is 30% of their total revenue, and the most profitable.

But you are the one who simply added,

" I do not think Philip Study Serba Dinamik 10 year records as I believe Serba Dinamik take on too much debt, expand too fast and too dependent on Qatar. "

Is this remark fair when I spent an entire year understanding the company before I bought a single share?

>>>>>>>>>

Qatar is their biggest revenue and profit center.

But sslee does have a point: debt is a very important factor in business growth. However just like cholesterol, there is always good and bad. As an investor we need to be very clear and understand the difference between the two.

Firstly, how much is the total debt generation versus the growth in revenue and earnings. This is a very important fact to understand. Debt is good if you get a big jump in revenue and earnings for each dollar of debt generated ( meaning a big market and ready to be tapped). Debt is bad when you actually get less revenue and earnings for every dollar put in ( take for example London biscuit, where increased debt turned into increase receivables that turned into late payments that turned into bad debt).

Secondly, is the debt serviceable with free cash flow? If the debt interest payments are within expectations, and job cancellations are still below threshold, and working capital is still available say the end of the day, then you need to understand how many hits the company can take before serious problems occur.

Thirdly, is the market shrinking or growing? Are the profit margins enough to cover debt risk? Who are their competitors and what levels of margins are they working with? There is no such thing as expanding too fast or taking on too much debt. What is most important is always the ratio of debt taken versus the orderbook and cashflow.

I think sslee doesn't even look at quarterly reports. Refer to page 13 please for juicy details.

Out of their 1.36 billion in revenue in latest quarter, 395 million comes from one source and 427 million comes from another source. Guess how much is Qatar contribution to their total revenue? Is this amount going to grow or reduce in the next few years? ( Guess: look at total orderbook)

Now go back to inari, who is their biggest revenue source? What percentage is that compared to their second largest source? Now, big hint: is Apple guiding towards a growth in smartphone orders or reduction in orders?

So, please do your due diligence and study deeper.

FYI, I have a unlucky feeling that INSAS will show a huge losing quarter in the next quarterly report due revision of fair value loss on assets ( stocks), reduction in value of inari sold at low prices, lower dividend yields ( even cancellation of dividend for to the need to conserve cash). Will I be lucky or origin come to fruition?

In any case better to be lucky than good.

>>>>>>>>

7. I do not think Philip Study Serba Dinamik 10 year records as I believe Serba Dinamik take on too much debt, expand too fast and too dependent on Qatar.

I would personally not use this " investor" as a guide because despite his beautiful prose, he is both right and wrong in his investments, which in reality means his analysis means absolutely nothing. How do I know his article is bullshit?

Very simple, compare his results versus his article. He writes this be that and has opinions in this and that, but in 2017 he says that public Bank is overvalued, and his picks as you now know were rcecap (30% of his portfolio) and affin bank (2% of his portfolio).

What were his results versus public Bank that I held within the same period ( 2012-2019)?

You can check it yourself. Even as his comments were correct on mbsb, he was remarkably wrong in buying affin and rcecap.

So, what good are academics with no results doing in giving you advice?

In short, it is similar to your father telling you vitamin c can cure covid19 based on some Facebook posts he read.

Unsubstantiated, not results based and with no history of accuracy.

I will recommend you do your own due diligence instead.

All I can say is the valuation metrics cold eye is using is wrong, icon8888 is using is wrong, Jonathan choi is wrong and sslee is wrong.

Let's start from there.

I myself do not have a clear understanding of the banking industry in Malaysia for the next 5-10 years which is why I sold pb. Lucky or not depends on you, although I am pretty sure I do 10x the amount of research and thinking on the future prospects than sslee when I go into a stock.

I have a feeling sslee only knows 2 of the CEOs of all the stocks that he buys ( without checking Google) and no Vincent tan is not the CEO of bjland.

Details which I consider critically important on my concept of valuation, rather than just numeric accounting figures.

>>>>>>>

Sslee P/S: As valuation on banking sector you can read the below blog
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2017-12-31-story-h14...
09/04/2020 7:55 AN

Very interesting, what makes you think PCHEM is at its peak? I firmly believe that it was cheap when I bought it at 8.33. and today at 4.09 it was even more cheap, as shown by my frequency of purchases. I sold public Bank exactly because I could no longer see good long term growth coming from public Bank and other banking counters in Malaysia. Yes during the covid-19 crisis, everything is cheap.

But even though everything is cheap, not everything is a long term buy. And if you can only choose one stock, better to put it into a stock that you know well instead.

>>>>>>>>>
1. Philip is not completely honest on his take on banking counters as he and his family members used to hold Public Bank but he is smart to sold off Public Bank near it peak and bought Pchem near it peak too.

For me a few things come to mind usually:

1. Growth of revenue and earnings: dialog hasn't grown much in revenue but their earnings have gone up a lot. I expect their profit margins to come down substantially as Aramco comes into the picture, PDT comes online and PIC in Johor starts to have much more competition in storage prices.
2. Total addressable market. Serba is performing in many places around the world, and I believe if their revenues and earnings are accurate, they will continue to grow at a phenomenal pace compared to dialog.

On the other hand there is a chance that Serba revenue and earnings are fabricated, but the consistency in dividends and earnings growth compared to peers seems to give me hope. I will continue to monitor this stock to understand more.


>>>>>>>>

Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" Hi Philip, mind sharing why you choose Serba over Dialog?
08/04/2020 7:22 PM

Apologies if I took your comment from email, but I thought this was an excellent question which requires some thoughts.

Most traders and new investors I know usually buy a stock based on ticker prices.

So when the ticker price goes up or down beyond their assumptions they usually panic and become very worried. A short term trade becomes a mid term hold becomes a long term "investment".

This is one of the worse things to do when stockpicking, because when you buy stocks based on ticker prices, you can never know if you are buying a stock cheaper than its intrinsic value, or chasing an uptrend stock into an accident, or catching a falling knife.

Knowing when to buy a stock is just half the game.
Knowing when to rationally sell a stock, and when to average down is another.

It is always a huge conundrum.

A few ways I go about it is to ignore the share price first and look to three business:

1. What is the debt of the company and possibility of bankruptcy.
2. Is the revenue/earnings downturn a permanent issue or a short term obstacle ( trade war, oil war, covid19 war)
3. How is the company doing in comparison to its peers

For me I prefer to purchase consistently growing companies that don't rise too high during good times, but also lose little during bad times. That way I can sleep well at night without much to worry about. And if a good discount day comes my way, I will be ready with a cash pile to buy in.

>>>>>>>>

When i added on for MRCB and GKENT it was making a profit but not up to my expectation to sell so i held on but then it went down further.I have no choice now but to hold on to them. I was wondering based on your experience shall i cut loss and invest on other counters but which at this current situation i supposed everything is uncertain.

Hi Fabien, do you mind sharing why you chose dialog over Serba? I'm also interested to know your opinion.

Which deep sea storage are you talking about? And more importantly how fast can you get that nicely sitting from deep sea storage to your customers?

The simple answer is I don't know how to value the long term returns of banks like CIMB and Maybank and electronic? Counters. As I prefer to to buy stocks in industries I know well and businesses I know well and within my area of competence.

Instead, if your area of competence is in banks or electronic counters then you should study that instead ( and share with me your findings haha).

For me, I have had only 4 stocks in my portfolio for the last 9 years, and added 2 last year and 1 this year, after carefully following and researching for 1 year. As well stoneco in NYSE.

Firstly, my advice is not to follow dividend paying only stocks, because you will invariably be led to REITS, which is a horrible idea in Malaysia. My advice is to follow companies which consistently grow their revenues and earnings every year while controlling debt, liabilities and shareholder dilution to a minimum. You can earn money in many ways other than dividends: via share buybacks, increase of share price due to p/e expansion etc. Note that warrants and share splits do not reward shareholders ( I consider them shareholder dilution).

My recommendation is to follow Warren buffet advice, treat buying stocks the same way you are buying a house, getting married or buying a car. If you can only buy 10 cars in your entire lifetime, it makes sense to be very very careful in choosing your cars. For me buying stocks is the same way.

If you are interested in a stock you should spend at least a month understanding a company before even thinking of buying it ( and removing all confirmation bias). You need to be brutally honest in understanding the long term prospects of the company you are researching in. Be cautious and assume you are presenting a report to the sultan of Saudi Arabia, who could behead you if you got it wrong.

There are no penalties or fines if you don't buy stocks. No bad decisions if you don't buy, only if you put your money in. Remember that. Ignore all those FOMO thoughts, and concentrate on never losing money.

So firstly you should read all 10 years annual reports to grasp:
1. What the management has done to grow the business
2. How much assets was grown during the period.
3. How much debt was generated during the period.
4. How much revenue and earnings was generated during the period.
5. Which customers and where those earnings came from and where it will come from 5 years from now.
6. How volatile/ stable is the earnings growth, how much bad years
7. How the management is acting on shareholder behalf.

If you have done all of this properly, reading the quarterly reports and annual reports, then you need to understand the competition

1. Read the industry journals to find the most efficient/fastest growing companies in industry.
2. How is the company you are researching about performing versus competition.
3. What are the market reports on the total addressable market of the industry.
4. who is the market leaders? HOW far apart are they versus competition.

Now once you have done this, then you should REPEAT and read the 10 years annual reports and quarterly reports of the COMPETITION stocks to see how they are performing versus the stock you are thinking of buying.

Once you have done all of this and you still think the company, you can start investing. But never put everything into the stock immediately. Buy a substantial amount that you can afford to lose, then build your position every quarter after the results are out and only if the performance is still within your expectations.

This is a much better way long term of participating in the growth of a well performing company.

Avoid IPOs, avoid airline stocks, avoid highly leveraged companies, avoid companies that you don't understand, avoid complex sounding companies with no earnings or revenues. Avoid startups.

Good luck.

And most important, avoid internet sifu trying to sell you subscription classes, books, stock tips and recommendations. Even myself. The price and time that I bought the stocks I have now is definitely different from the time that you will buy them so obviously any drop in share price I will still be able to sleep well at night because I am still heavily in the green, while you may be staring at the red.

Try to start a trackable portfolio of your stock purchases and sell so you can be honest in your performance and the opportunity costs you lost while holding your stocks. Learn to improve your stock picking and make the wrong decisions early( unlike me), don't repeat the same mistakes twice,

Good luck.


>>>>>>>>>

vllyk hi i am new and i am very impressed at how much money you are investing in stocks. May i know why do you not invest in banking counters like CIMB or Maybank? or electronics counters since we are moving into the digital era?

How many stocks should one have in his/her portfolio and should we focus on dividend paying stocks all the time?
07/04/2020 10:33 PM

Post removed.Why?

It is easy to use money to make people happy. Even najib with his br1m and activities can make anyone happy.

Using money is simple.

But making money and saving money is a totally different exercise.

Making money for the country is never going to a popular move, because it means it has to come from the pockets of interested parties.

How we judge the news prime minister is in how he will assist in pulling Malaysia out of the economic doldrum post covid crisis.

That is when we will see if the new government is working well or not.

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Hi sich, for stne we have decided a wait and see approach as stne has not dropped to a level that would warrant dipping into margin to buy more. I'm currently content with the 200k shares that we currently hold, and will use any dividends if raised to reinvest. As our initial price was around the usd20 range, I think we are comfortable as is.

>>>>>>>>


sich Hi Philip, STNE is now 17.82. Given the Covid-19 situation in Brazil your thesis for STNE still remains ? Do you plan to average down ?
04/04/2020 8:11

Oh gosh, you are so funny, which financial result? The current one or by end of 2020? Still short term thinker. Obviously the next financial report will not have much in contribution, the mrcb quarterly report last month for December had already come out, with the gkent/mrcb lrt3 jv claim earnings only at 700k earnings. Do you think a full redesign of system takes a few weeks to carry out? When management has already guided towards 48% claim by end of 2020, you still look towards end of 2019 FY for your confirmation?

So you are still assuming buy today for 100% earnings tomorrow?

Those who know what to look for look not only at gkent financial earnings: the look at prasarana reports, they visit the lrt3 sites, they look at mrcb reports, they buy the mrcb/gkent jv SDN BHD report, they visit the lrt3 architects, civil and m&e consultant firms to interview on payment claims progress and revised work schedules. They check with the gkent project team to find out the problems and hiccups they are facing.

So much work to buy just 1 stock.

But that is why the more work you do to study a company, the more conviction you get. This is the essence of scuttlebutt and keeping within your area of competence. If you think reading quarterly report and financial report is enough to know a company, your portfolio results will reflect your opinions.

Somebody just bought 90 million shares of hibiscus at 23.5 cents. Massive dilution paid for from the pockets of hibiscus shareholders.

Let apple168 buy. What she waiting for? When others can pay 20 cent, she go and pay 51 cent.

>>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/HIBISCS/2020-04-06-story-h1485817342-MICHAEL_TANG_VEE_MUN_ACQUIRED_HIBISCUS_SHARE_ON_9MAR_18MAR.jsp

Wow it's a 16 billion dollar stock. What big player are you taking about? Stop worrying about nonsense, otherwise the alien abducting will come back for you again.


>>>>>>>

Posted by fightingdragons > Apr 6, 2020 4:38 PM | Report Abuse

Looks like some big player is manipulating Top Glove's share to ensure it is still on an uptrend but on a very controlled and gradual pace. Why and who?

What is fomo?

>>>>>

Posted by qqq33333333 > Apr 6, 2020 2:17 PM | Report Abuse

ss.........share market all about trading, about FOMO............what has value investing got to do with bursa?

Wow, you guys must be far better planters than me. But then again you are probably bigger scale so better economies. Our group jointly has 280 acres of land in tawau, so far average yield is around 1.5 ton fresh fruit bunches @ rm380, with the refineries not being nice in buying, when they do buy at all. Payments are usually delayed too.

I wonder if there is any micro boiler compressor systems that I can buy from China to do ffb extractions so I don't need to be cheated by the big players?

Here is one of the reasons why I don't practise trading, and why traders are rarely successful long term.

At first you seem very smart, buying a small batch at below 50 cents and quickly selling it when it went higher. But two problems happen:
1. You learn nothing about the company or its long term prospects.
2. If you lose money trading ( as you invariably will), the will be a fear that happens in trading downwards, freezing you from buying something at huge discounts.
3. If you cutwin ( as you usually will), you will start to feel silly when the price jumps far higher than your sold price, causing your pride to stop you from buying more because you feel that if the stock dropped to such lows that it will continue to do so, not realising that this is not a new normal, but an abnormal opportunity that rarely knocks twice.


>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Haha,
No hurry will collect slowly but right now better to buy Gkent below 50 cents and sell back to Gkent above 50 cents, learn from hng33.
26/03/2020 4:02 PM

If you look at 2017, you already the figures that were coming into Gkent from lrt3 progress claims. After it was stopped in 2018 and revised to change them into main contractor instead of PDP partner. You can see the EARNINGS drop. Meaning the difference should be coming in from LRT3 progress claims. Now those claims were not cancelled, only delayed as per revised redesign of systems.

Now that all those progress claims for work done have been submitted and received to begin in 2020(48% completion), you will begin to see more revenue and earnings resolution from lrt3.

In any case, as a PDP partner their profit was capped at 6% of the project size previously,

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/08/mrcb-and-gkent-shares-rise-on-confirmation-as-pdp-for-lrt3

As seen here, profit margins for GKENT will be higher, but the total sum will be lower for the redesign, redesign details here:

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2018/07/17/lrt3-rationalisation-sufficient-to-meet-demand/

But gkent/mrcb is required to accept bigger risk as a fixed contract supplier instead of PDP partner. So they are allowed to use better subcons( no longer BN crony company sub like IJM), but hire specialist companies ( like the one I used to work for before retiring) who can give better price and do directly instead of sub sub like a standard bumiputera company.

I believe their profit margins will be in the range of 1.2 billion or 10% of the contract, similar to standard main contractor margins.

Meaning Gkent earnings will be around 50% of the JV, 600 million divided by 5 years, with a safer number similar to pre-najib lrt3 fees of 60-80 million a year.

Of course with PDP structure Kent took zero risk, as their fees were based on contract value. With new structure more risk, direct control as main con, better profit margins.

And if you believe that gkent used to be valued at rm4 reflecting the results? Knowing that lrt3 is still continuing and full payment guaranteed by federal government?

I thought I was having a deal buying GKENT at rm1.

Buying GKENT at 0.46, with 200 million cash at 30 million share buyback? It's a steal.


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rururunnn Hi Phillip,

"the expected 20 million of earnings per quarter from lrt3 progress claim and the 5 million per quarter from mrt2 progress claim comes online."

Could you highlight on how did you get these numbers?

If these are EARNINGS per quarter, effectively per annum you're expecting:
80m earnings from LRT 3 progress *50% JV (just to be conservative, I take the 50% that belongs to MRCB out) = 40m
and MRT3 = 20m

That's a forecast of 60m without considering the construction and water division. and if they can achieve 60m for FY21, they will have a P/E of 5.5x and lower if you take into account the other revenue...

I'm still learning.. if you could share some thoughts that'll be great.

Same point. So if someone without any degree, PhD or real world experience and no certificate come in tells you that your filtering process is wrong, production can be increased by 25% by doing things his way, you will just nod your head and apply without understanding his background?

Look good luck to you.

You are arguing for the sake of arguing.

I stop now and let you think deeply if your past 3 years results on INSAS and xinquan and hengyuan " value investing" is based on nice articles written by sifu without results, and if you ever wondered if their results is the same as yours.

Sure, when you sell all your insas and buy JAKS. Or you forgot which one is your biggest shareholding? No confidence in insas already?

0.69 insas
6.9 QL

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Posted by Sslee > Apr 6, 2020 7:33 AM | Report Abuse

Haha philip,
Can l join the 9 months klang Bak kut Teh bet
Jak 0.85 vs QL 7.9.

So as a plantation manager I should listen to those PhD and degree holders Instead of those with experience and consistent results in my plantation like sslee? Ok then. No use talking to you when you are defending the indefensible.

FYI I can send you a list of investment gurus and stock subscription sellers that you can buy stock tips from, since you don't consider portfolio results important in trusting a stock guru.

It seems you will never understand the purpose of IEC, certification board and accreditations.

If someone went to your plantation and said everything sslee is doing in his plantation is wrong, too much fertilizer being used too little fertilizer being applied, things should be done this way and that way.

Will sslee just follow that guru and change his entire operational methods based on one lecture? I hope he doesn't.

Because if he finds out that his own methods give far superior results, while the guru doesn't even have any plantation experience at all, and that the guru is just using internet available information from successful billionaires to sell his classes?

Then it will be a shame, when sslee plantations go bankrupt.

>>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Dear all,
It seem Philip never get it that A high IQ or big fat investment portfolio won’t make you stand out.

Topglove also there. You want to complete against topglove? How about Serba dinamik?

I only have 6 stocks in my portfolio, all reinvested through many years with higher volume. If you say I am a Calvin tan with chun chun calls but over 40+ stocks then I have nothing to say.

But if I only have 6 stocks carefully chosen and researched and bought with conviction, can you really put it down to luck?

10 years holdings luck perhaps.

How about your portfolio? Ada ka? Other than mnrb, you don't seem to even have one.

In a way I respect DK66 for his depth of research and conviction. His quality of research is far more insightful than your many useless comments, backed with ZERO results.

Tin kosong

I can understand why OTB is irritated at i3 sometimes.

Learn your place little kid. No portfolio results ask but don't assume and don't denigrate. If you want to start, let your portfolio do your talking for you.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by CharlesT > Apr 6, 2020 7:15 AM | Report Abuse

without yr lucky QL yr portfolio very beautiful loh