Confirm!!

Good news for Petronm

https://paultan.org/2017/04/19/april-2017-week-four-fuel-pricing-petrol-diesel-all-up/?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

Internet news :

Ron95 : +3 cents
Ron97 : +2 cents
Diesel : +5 cents

This place will be crowded soon..... ha ha ha

South Korea refinery reported 1st Qtr earning with healthy refinery margin, and expected the margin can be sustained on 2nd Qtr

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFS6N1BB00W?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

Personally I think the prices will remain the same for Ron 95 & Ron 97, whereas Diesel might drop couple of cents (lower refinery margin for Diesel lately).

Correction: summer

OPEC 2017 summary outlook on O&G sector

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/opec-summer-oil-market-outlook/?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

Patron Corp is trading with PE 15 currently , where the company pay less dividend & having higher debts compare to Petron Malaysia. Both organisations are running exactly the same form of business, except Petron Corp in bigger scale & with more advance refinery facility. It is matter of time Petron Malaysia get the re-rating once the income is stable down.

Then faster sell loh..... ha ha ha

Cheers

@ Probability, what is your guess on tomorrow petrol price ?

My guess is around 9-10 cents increase.

Looking forward for the 1st Qtr results.

http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170411000224&from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0#cb

ha ha ha...... so true !!

But when the price move a bit, it become crowded again.

It should be the other way, when the price still haven't move that is the time the discussion & homework must carry out, when the is price moving then just sit back & relax !

Brent oil price move up to US$56 just now.

Relax lah !! Short term share price movements is always unpredictable, especially Petronm this counter.

If the operator want to press down the price then nothing much we can do, just see how low they want to press, if the price is low enough for value then we mah collect a bit loh.

Cheers

US launches military strike against Syria

Oil price is up !!

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/06/politics/donald-trump-syria-military/index.html

A bit of surprise on the quantum of increase.

anyway Brent Oil price is hanging around at $54+ region, if tonight EIA numbers is positive (which is highly expected) I think $55 is within the reach.

@ probability, cheers !

I personally think that the petrol price will revise up to $2.20 +\- !

1) refinery margin has been steady and stay around in healthy region since beginning of 2017

2) Estimate Average oil price for 1st Qtr is around US$52 +\-, which is higher compare to 4th Qtr 2016 of US$50

3) RM against USD has been been climbing gradually

So far so good, looking forward for the 1st Qtr results and the dividend.

@ probability, just sit back and relax, enjoy the waiting time. i m quite confident that Petronm will produce a decent earning

Having say that, the refinery margin had climbed back to 4 weeks high since last one or two days.

If this can sustain, Petronm is heading for a record earning year. Keep the figures crossed

http://m.timesofindia.com/business/international-business/asia-naphtha/gasoline-cracks-supported-by-strong-demand/articleshow/57894051.cms

Agree with what u said above, however there is one more factor need to be considered that is refinery margin, as Jan/Feb 2017 the margin is higher as compared to Mar 2017. Still the operator will be benefited from above pricing mechanisms

@ probability, you should look at Brent instead of Crude, as for Malaysia market Brent Oil is the source.

It is better to look at Petronm earning on yearly basis due to fluaction of oil price, refinery margin & USD exchange rate. It is more stable in a way, if u look at FY 2015 & FY 2016 on the yearly basis, it is quite stable in term of earning, gross margin & cash flow.

Congrats to all comrades !

http://www.euronews.com/2017/03/27/asia-refiners-snap-up-cheap-light-oil-to-reap-higher-fuel-profits

Govt will set weekly ceiling retail price for Petrol & Diesel effective from 29/3 & and any price reductions or promotions by operator, an application to relevant department will be needed.

In long term, this is good for Operator.

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1626250

Totally agree with Jay !!

Cheers

One time stock gains or stock losses due to fluctuations of oil prices is part and parcel of refinery business. If u put in one whole year period it will eventually even out.

Refinery margin is the meat that u are looking after, so far Jan/Feb 2017 the refinery margin is good, where as March 2017 might affect a bit, still overall the 1st Qtr 2017 is expected to be good.

"Manipulation" that is all I can say.

For those that are worry then mah sell loh !!

I will buy more if the price is right.

If u are in for long term then Just put aside and relax, someone want to press down the price then let it be, sooner or later the fundamental value will be slowly unlock.

This getting very interesting.

https://twincitytelegraph.com/petron-malaysia-refining-marketing-bhd-klsepetronm-valuation-at-a-glance/

@ probability Cheers

Technical side, I m not too familiar, is it possible they intent to allocate more of their refinery facilities to produce HVAP i.e. Ron 100 & Euro 5M Disel which have better sales margin ?

@ Pitbull, sure there will be impact but to what extent I m not too sure. If u refer back to 2016 2Q, I think the average oil price is around $46/47 Petronm still make reasonable profit. However this is also because of improved refinery margin as compared to 2016 1Q

@ Jay, cheers !

Traditionally Q1 always higher sales volume due to Chinese New Year. Hence if the 3 main factors i.e. 1) Oil Prices, 2) Refinery margin & 3) Forex rate can stay around at current level, then a decent quarter results will be expected.

Personally I m more interested in their cash flow progress.

Petron Corp posted an excellent results for FY2016, in the reports it mentioned that Petron Malaysia obtained an encouraging growth.

http://thestandard.com.ph/mobile/article/231775

If u buy because of the share price movements then my advice is don't buy, cause this counter short term share price can be very unpredictable. If u are eyeing for it value then yes it can be considered.

Good luck

@ sumato88 Good work ! Thanks for sharing

Ha ha ha..... so many expert !!

Good luck.

Only 340K+ shares traded and can push down the share price by 3+% !

That is the problem with low liquidity shares, anyway I got no complaints, if they are willing to push down to the level I think worth buying then I will add more, else I will just sit back and watch this free show.

Good luck

If u buy now @ this price, in 3 months time u going to receive $0.22, work out to be 3.76% ! Plus the coming Qtr results as a surprise package.

I m not asking u to buy but I m just telling u what I think. Cheers

The operator behind it is in action again. If u want to buy, do it slowly.

Fundamentally Petronm has not change, instead it has improved if compare to last FY.

Happy trading

in fact crack spread future is going up.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/rbob-crack-spread-swap-futures.html

Thanks Jay !

@ Jay, where to find updated crack spread ? Thanks

Just take a rough estimation :

Actual FY2015

cash flow (1/1/2015) : $354.67 millions
Net cash from Operation : $360.86 millions
Repayment of Debts : $445 millions
Capex/Investment : $111.13 millions
Cash Flow (31/12/2015) : $159.27 millions

If you just take FY 2015 cash flow alone :

$360.86 mils - $445 mils - $111.13 mils = -$195.27 mils (negative cash flow)

However the management still declared $0.20 ($54 mils) dividend, which means that they are confident with FY2016 cash flow (although dividend payment is at June 2016).

-------------------------------------------------

Actual FY2016

cash flow (1/1/2016) : $159.27 millions
Net cash from Operation : $349.97 millions
Repayment of Debts : $236.42 millions
Dividend payments : $54 millions
Capex/Investment : $47.33 millions
Cash Flow (31/12/2016) : $171.64 millions

If you just take FY 2016 cash flow alone :

$349.97 mils - $236.42 mils - $54 mils - $47.33 mils = 12.22mils (Positive cash flow)

The management is willing to declare $0.22 ($59.4 mils) dividend means that they are positive with FY 2017 cash flow.

Let say we took out dividend payment out from the equation, i.e. ($349.97 mil - $236.43 mils - $47.33 mils = $66.22 mils) the true cash flow FY2016 generated after taking out all other cash flow items, out of the $66.22 mils the management is ready to declare $59.4 mils as dividend. Payout ratio 89.7%

-------------------------------------------------

Estimate FY2017

cash flow (1/1/2017) : $171.64 millions
Net cash from Operation : $350 millions
Repayment of Debts : $150 millions (around 50% of total debts)
Dividend payments : $59.4 millions
Capex/Investment : $100 millions
Cash Flow (31/12/2017) : 212.24 $millions

If you just take FY 2017 cash flow alone :

$350 mils - $150 mils - $59.4 mils - $100 mils = 40.6 mils (Positive cash flow)

Let say we took out dividend payment out from the equation, i.e. ($350 mil - $150 mils - $100 mils = $100 mils) the true estimate cash flow FY2017 generated after taking out all other cash flow items, out of the $100 mils the management can easily declare $0.30 dividend ($81 mils).

The estimate net cash from operation would be higher than $350 millions if the oil price can stay at USD 50+ for FY2017, average oil price for FY2016 is USD44.