Ha ha ha.... something wrong mah sell loh !!!

I waited for one year plus and I don't mind to wait for another year.

In short term, value is unlikely equal to share price, this is the most basic principle for value investing.

Just to share, as like a lot of of other counters, there is a hidden hand behind this counter to manipulate the short term price movements. That is why I said this counter is not suitable for short term play. To make the matter worst, due to low in liquidity the manipulation is much more easy to be done. However if u are in for long term, then no worry, as long as the company can deliver decent results + good dividend then it is only matter of time the share price will catch up.

Cheers

I m not too sure how the market will react ? However I personally think Petronm will have some competitive edge, due to ：

1）They have their own refinery, which allow them to have more room to squeeze some margin out for price discount. If u remember few months back Petronm did a promotion of $1 free voucher for every $45 petrol purchased, and that is 2.22% discount, so that is another form of discount.

2) Petron Corp had been running this kind of free floating petrol retail business back in Philippine for many years, they will have the necessary experience to compete with others.

3) Out of 580 petrol stations, 70% is fully own by Petronm & 30% own by franchisees, the franchisee % is lower compare to Petronas Dag, hence Petronm will have more flexibility in term of prices movements.

Besides all the above, I also personally think that this semi open floating system is good for petrol retail business cause now the price is revised weekly hence margin squeeze period will be shorter.

The news is a bit confused, now it seems that government will set the ceiling price weekly and let the operators decide the selling price. It seems like short term might have a price war ?

http://english.astroawani.com/malaysia-news/ceiling-price-fuel-be-announced-weekly-april-134406

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20170304/%E8%B4%B8%E6%B6%88%E9%83%A84%E6%9C%88%E8%B5%B7-%E6%AF%8F%E5%91%A8%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E7%87%83%E6%B2%B9%E5%94%AE%E4%BB%B7/?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

Start from April 2017, petrol retail prices will be revised weekly. This is good for Petronm as the earning will be more stable as compare to monthly revised.

Through a friend

@probability, shared

@Goodstock, Shared a Dropbox video file to your email address, can view ?

Here cannot post video file, how to share ?

@ Goodstock，I have the video, but not the link or the report. If u want I can email it to u

Grandpine Investment yesterday recommended Petronm to their VIP members with a short term TP of $7.

Inside our investment group there is a member bought Petronm few months back @ $4+ ! after go through few months boring ride, he can't wait to cash out last week on the limit up day. He is very happy with his profit & ask what other counters he can invest ?

Our reply is ........ Petronm !!! Ha ha ha......

Joke aside, this is a company with good asset, good brand, good business model, good management & healthy financial status ! Apa lu mau lagi ??

Don't forget the 1st Qtr always generated the higher sales volume due to festival season. Let see how far Petronm can achieved in term of earning

If u look back on trading day 23/2, 24/2 & 27/4 there are around 7+ millions change hand, after taking out there short term trading volume, conservatively there are still around 3 millions shares been bought up. So where is those shares now, for the last 4-5 trading days the trading volumes are rather thin. What are they up too ??? Your guess are good as mine !

Just found out this Petronm miles website, quite interesting ! The management is really working hard to push for market growth.

https://www.petronmiles.com.my

Cheers

thanks myongcc5

I mentioned before, Petronm is not suitable for short term play, due to share liquidity is very low then the prices movement can be quite a bit of range and it also open up to easy price manipulation.

If u cannot stand this kind of boring ride, then I can tell u the boring journey just started, it might take a while.

Good luck & happy investing

In will help the refinery margin.

As I mentioned before, Petronm is not suitable for short term play, if you have decided to invest into this company then you must ready for this long boring ride. The value is rich but short term share price can be very unpredictable, however if u can hang on with it the rewards might be quite substantial.

PetDag the direct beneficial of high retail petrol price has climb to $25.4+ today. Given the price, PE ratio & management style, I will rather choose Petronm, although i have to admit that it is a boring counter but the value is rich.

http://www.bursamarketplace.com/mkt/tools/research/ch=research&pg=research&ac=32302&bb=69377?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

This is interesting :

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1619069/%E2%80%9Cron95%E6%B2%B9%E4%BB%B7%E5%8F%88%E7%AE%97%E5%AF%B9%E4%BA%86%E2%80%9D%E2%80%A7%E6%88%B4%E5%AD%90%E5%9D%9A%E8%84%B8%E4%B9%A6%E5%85%AC%E5%BC%80%E4%BC%B0%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95

Now a day, Undervalue Good Stock is hard to come by, once u found it make sure u hang on with it to get a free ride.

Cheers

The petrol retail business is a very profitable business, the 580 petrol stations & kiosk own by Petronm are very valuable business channels, that is why Shell separates the refinery business & the petrol retail business. Good one keep it private, whereas the other let it be public company.

This should be the way, very professional. I m sure that this company is in good hand & give them some time they will deliver.

Happy Investing

At the moment I m not setting any TP for it, however if using fundamental valuation personally I think it would worth more than $6.5, let say they can sustain the yearly EPS of $1-$1.1 and turn to net cash company by end of the year, I think re-rating to PE around 10 is possible. Of course if the dividend can increase to $0.25/$0.30 then it would be even better

Petronm is a counter that u going to need a lot of patience, where most of the time thin volume & lack of retailers' interest. So sometimes the price might fluactate in quite a bit of range due to genuine seller/buyer or price manipulation. So only suitable for long term investors

Pitbull, u are welcome

Ya ! But shell is a different kind of business operation in a way, debts level is a bit high.

Personally I still prefer Petronm cause better fundamental as well as business model.

If government increase the the petrol retail price, Indirectly it will help the refinery margin.

tonight even if the government announce to maintain the Feb Petrol retail price for March, it will be good for Petronm.

Ya, Petdag earning is more stable & predictable in a way compare to Petronm, that is why Petronm is still trading with PE 7, where as Petdag on 20+

@invest_101, what a coincident this morning I was looking at PetDag historical data, what u mentioned is absolutely right. As at 2006 Petdag was trading at range of $4+ to $5 with a PE of around 9 & dividend yield of 3+% ! Once their dividend yield start to pick up, their PE was adjusted to 12, from there onwards the PE was gradually upgrade to 20+

Good company need times to unlock their value, and most of the times the process will take longer than we expected.

Happy Investing.

Sit back & relax, just let the profit clicking, this stock value still not fully unlock. If the coming Qtr results is as predicted then re-rating to PE 10 is possible.

$0.22 is reasonably good, the still have debts and once the level of debts drop further, most likely the dividend payout ratio will be increased

Share price movement is very hard to predict. Let say if Petronm earning be stable downed with yearly EPS around $0.80, then re-rating to PE around 10 is likely. However short term share price movement is unpredictable.

Free Cash Flow for FY2016 is $302.6 millions, work out to be $1.12 per share, total debts as at 31/12/2016 around $308 millions, cash on hand $171 millions. There might be some surprise for future dividend.

U shut down only when u need to, it is mandatory shut down for maintenance & safety checks under the regulation.

Refinery Plant shut down maintenance is every 3 years once, last one was at 2015.

Whereas few negative part of this counter that I can think of are :

1) share liquidity is not too good, the owner hold 73.39% plus other institutions & long term investors holding, I guess the actual shares actively floating in the market is around15-20% of the total issued shares. Since it is a low trading volume counter, this will easily allow some intended party for manipulation of share prices.

2) earning is quite unpredictable in a way due to the earning is very much affected of fluctuations of oil prices, USD as well as refinery margin.

3) the possibility of privatization. If I m the owner I will consider this option. As the company's asset is undervalue.

My cost is around $5 after take into account of the previous $0.20 dividend, now there is some paperloss but it did not border me

wltan22, well said ! I already hang on with a Petronm more than a year, and I don't mind to hang with it longer, as long as they fulfill my requirements

Just let the share price float by itself. I am sure that as long as Petronm can maintain the the growth and the financial position keep improving then it is only matter of time the value will be unlock.

With regarding of dividend, I am not too concern as Petron Corp the holding company own 73.39% of Petronm, and they just issued a 20 billions peso bond back in Philippine, they going to need the some cash as well.

Although Petronm did do some export business, however the % against the total sales is rather small and the volume has been dropping due to market is floods with refinery products since last year. Besides they have to buy the Brent with USD, even though they do hedging but still there will be some negative impact

As far as forex concern, annual report did stated if RM weaken by 10% against USD the impact will be negative RM 18 mils per year, hence per quarter will be around 4-5 mils, which is manageable.

Whereas Average Brent Oil price, Q3 was around US46, Q4 was around USD 48+ , there will be one off inventory value gain & it should be sufficient to cover the estimate forex losses !

With the better retail price & stable Brent oil price, the refinery margin should be improved. With regards the dividend, last AGM the management did stated $0.20 should be within the reach.

Looking forward for the Qtr results

https://www.sc.com.my/wp-content/uploads/eng/html/icm/sas/sc_syariahcompliant_161124.pdf

petronm just listed as shariah compliance counter effective from 24/11/2016.

Petron Malaysia first 9 months sales volume growth by 8% !

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/587975/money/companies/petron-nine-month-net-income-up-by-47-at-p7-4b