I m just sharing info only, and I have been holding this counter for 2 yrs plus hence I had gather some useful info along the line.

Just sharing my view :

1) the $14 Billions expansion is not only refinery capacity addition, one of the key factor is Petro Chemical. This will be the full integrated refinery. Base on the my rough estimation, out of the US$600 millions EBITDA mentioned in the report, around US$300 mils will come from refinery, retail around US$100 mils & the rest of US$200 mils will be from Petrol Chemical. Petrol Chemical is a very lucrative business, that is why PChem & LCTitan are worth so much.

2) Funding of this 14 Bils, most likely it will be combinations of private placement + loans + cash JV (very likely) + cash call.

Short term very unlikely there will a right issue, cause

- Petron Corp is currently holding 73.39% of PetronM, if they do a right issue any mishaps of shareholding % (some shareholders did not pick up the right), it will trigger MO if the holding touch 75%. And if the right is call Petron Corp got to come up a lot of cash too, which they are short too.

- Petron Corp is short of funding at the moment too, they will list a US$350 mils bond at Philippine at this coming 19/1/2018, the purpose for the funding is to redeem part of the US$700 mils bond listed at HKSE which is going to mature this year. They will apply another $700 mils bond listing at SGX for the remaining redemption later this year.

- Petron Corp is just secured another huge loan for Philippine refinery upgrade for 2018.

So, personally I think if the US$14 B expansion is go ahead then very likely there will be a private placement come first (funding + dilution purpose) + loan + JV (with such a important enery business , wouldn’t EPF or Khazanah want a piece of it ?), then only right issue will be call.

Of course the expansion had another side of story too, at least short term dividend payout ratio will be affected.

Anyway just my personal view, I might be wrong.

Short term share price I m not too sure, however fundamentally this company is getting stronger gradually.

Same like oil prices, Refinery margin will go up & down and that is part and parcel of Petronm business. The most important thing is Petronm is very hunger for growth, 2017 itself Petronm had opened up around 30-35 new petrol stations (as stated in AGM). Their commercial sector (Aviation sector & Gutsul) also obtain double digit growth in term of sales for the first 9 months of 2017 as compared to 2016.

As I said above Short term price movement I got no idea but long term I guess it still a sound company.

Anyway just personal view only.

You are welcome, cheers

Done

Newmaster I had the PDF file but not the link, I can email u if u want.

RHB maintains Buy Call with TP $16.2

Just put aside the share market and enjoy your long weekend holiday, Petronm had an exceptional year in term of earning, business development as well as share price.

As you can see the that :

1) Brent closed at USD66.63 (30/9/2017 closed at USD56+)

2) USD vs MYR rate closed at 4.062 (30/9/2017 closed at 4.2275)

3) Refinery Margin has been good for entire whole 4th Qtr of 2017, with average of USD 9+/B, which is slightly better than previous Qtr.

4) 4th Qtr always is a higher a busy driving quarter as due to schools holiday + festival season. Higher sales volume is expected.

With all the above reasons, Petronm should have a decent 4th Qtr Earning and a decent dividend is expected as well (Due to Petron Corp has a 25% dividend policy & recently Petron Corp has been busy with their debts restructuring, ithey need funding).
Short term price movement, I have no idea but long term fundamentals still very sound. I had been holding this counter for more than 2 yrs and I am glad that I hang on with them for a great journey.

Happy New Year
Happy 2018

Public IB analyst report stated :

1) Petron Miles Card has growth to 5 millions and out of the numbers with an estimate of 2.8 millions active customers (The number was 4 millions as at this year AGM).

2) Public IB forecast 2017 EPS will be $1.60, Free Cash Flow of $379 mils & 25 cents dividend.

3) FY2018 performance will be lower due to mandatory shutdown in 4th quarter.

Overall, the forecast is fair but with a slight conservative approach. However this is a normal practice for Public IB.

Public IB style is always give a lower TP, then gradually upgrade the TP if the figures is good.

I

In the report also highlighted :

1) PetronM had cleared the remaining borrowing (approximately RM67 mils) on September 2017.

2) Petron Corp incurred higher selling & Admin cost, as well as finance cost, this indirectly drag down the consolidated results. Having said that, PetronM should have a decent results.

3rd Qtr results & first 9 months results Analyst Briefing for Petron Corporation will be held on 10/11/2017

http://edge.pse.com.ph/openDiscViewer.do?edge_no=a454e3f3249d03033318251c9257320d#sthash.WCNvZtyr.dpbs

Ron 95 : +4 cents
Ron 97 : +4 cents
Diesel : +4 cents

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/01/uptrend-seen-for-oil-refiners/

Fill up your car tank by today or tomorrow, it is going to be UP !

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hengyuan-petron-shares-rise-anticipation-hike-petrol-pump-prices

Petronas started with 1 liter = 1 point recently , Petronm see the opportunity to reduce to 1 liter = 2 points.

HRC incurred $13 millions losses on the 2 months hedging contracts, however I would take this as good news, as HRC hedging contract is around $8/B but the actual average crack spread is higher than $8/B. And of course HRC is not fully hedge for that 2 months. (I would assume 50% or lesser)

Good news is this means that refinery margin is higher the HY management hedging.

Bad news is HY will earn less 13+ millions if they did not do the crack spread hedging.

Overall to me is a good news

http://mobapp-plain.klsescreener.com/v2/announcements/bursa_announcement?directUrl=http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/viewHtml?e=2797486

First full Analyst Report from RHB, TP $16.2

looks like refinery margin will have a good chance to keep the strength until year end.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-diesel-margin/profits-on-producing-gasoil-jet-fuel-soar-in-asia-as-demand-outpaces-supply-idUSKCN1BN0K6

In the 2016 annual report on currency risk section stated a 10% strengthen of MYR against USD will have a positive effects of RM47.6 millions (whole financial year).

personally I do not expect an excellent results for this coming 2nd Qtr, due to stock loss + average refinery margin, but a reasonable good results should be achievable. I m looking forward for the coming 3rd Qtr results, if the oil price, Forex rate & refinery margin can sustain at the current level until end of September, then a record earning is possible.

The management is pushing very hard for the growth !

Give them some time, I believe so encouraging results can be achieved.

https://www.hmetro.com.my/bisnes/2017/08/256715/dekati-pelanggan?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

PetDag YOY sales volume drop 5% overall, retails segment drop 4%, and commercial segment drop 6% !

This might be an indirect indication for Petronm sales volume.

Just guessing only

The main contributors to the first half 2017’s performance versus last year are the following:

♦ Consolidated Sales volume reached 52.9 million barrels (MMB), slightly higher than previous year’s 52.6 MMB due to the growth in Malaysian volume. In the Philippines, the focus to sell more profitable products was exhibited by higher gasoline, petrochemicals, kero/jet and lubes sales, tempered by the reduction in diesel and IFO. Meanwhile, for Malaysian operations, the incremental volume primarily came from gasoline, kero/jet and diesel sales contributed by Industrial and Retail trades.

♦ Net sales went up by 28% or P= 45.10 billion to P= 206.96 billion brought about by higher average selling prices as regional market prices of finished products escalated coupled with the P= 3.03 average depreciation of the Philippine peso versus the US dollar.

♦ Cost of Goods Sold (CGS) increased by 29% to P= 185.89 billion from last year’s =P 144.11 billion due to the hike in prices of crude and imported products. During 1H 2017, benchmark crude Dubai averaged US$51/bbl or 38% higher than last year’s average of US$37/bbl. Gross margin consequently improved on account of better sales mix, lower power cost at the Bataan Refinery despite inventory losses realized this year versus gains in 1H 2016.

As stated in the report, the growth in volume is mainly from Malaysia operation.

As far as this counter concern short term very hard to say how the share price will move, however long term the growth prospects and solid fundamentals still intact.

2 months back when the share price dropped to $7+, those "so call experts" jump out to talk so much negative about it but today after 4 days price consolidation the price still around $8.8 ! Let the price do the talking.

As at yesterday refinery margin still stood firm at USD11.5+ and best still since beginning of July refinery margin had been staying above USD10 and Brent Oil price also stable above USD50, so if the figures can maintain until end of September then solid 3rd Qtr earning will be expected.

Cheers

Ha ha..... ya ah !!

Just sharing info only, nothing much.

Cheers

That I got no idea ! I only hold mother share and intend keep for long term. Call warrant I hardly play

I mean last week

Ha ha.... they push the price up last to sell CD at a inflated price, now pushing down the mother to collect back at a way lower price.

RHB will do the necessary to recover the loss incurred in CB !!

Some Forex gain is expected as RM was strengthened 2%+ against USD

Personally I think we can use sales revenue to estimate Petronm profit. 2Q total sales revenue is $101 billions peso, and from the historical data showed that Petronm sales revenue portion is 27.15%, and Petronm last Qtr net profit margin was 4.2% (of course this 2Q might be slightly lower due to stock losses)

This one might give some basic idea of the rough estimation.

Personally i do not think they will ship the refined product from Malaysia to Philippine due to costing. I guess for that 45 days they are just buy & sell from other Philippine's refinery.

Anyway I m just guessing only.

It stated on the press released statement of Petrol Corp

http://edge.pse.com.ph/companyDisclosures/form.do?cmpy_id=136

Petron Corp went through 45 days refinery plant shut down during 2nd Qtr, hence Petron Corp operating income will be affected quite substantially for 2Q 2017.

The positive figures highlighted is the sales volume which worked out to be 26.7 millions barrels as compared to 26.2 millions barrels last Qtr, up about 500K barrels ; malaysia operation is about 30% of the total operation hence about 150K barrels increased.

The report also mentioned about stock loss which Malaysia operation might suffer too, hence conservatively I think EPS of 32/33 cents will be a safer bet.

Just personall opinion only.

Surprisingly the article is from RHB !

Phillips 66 posted a decent results.
(Phillips 66 business model is quite similar with Petronm except they have Petro Chemical division)

http://m.nasdaq.com/article/phillips-66-q2-earnings-climb-14-20170801-00484?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

Normally Petron Corp 3rd quarterly report will only out by 7th or 8th of August

Petronm-CB will be expired on 31/7/2017, so this week 5 trading days of the mother share prices will be used as the calculation base. The issued Bank of the call warrant will try to press the price down if they can.

India refinery company posted a decent quarter results, on the report it stated that healthy refinery margin contributed to the better earning for the quarter ended June

http://www.asianage.com/business/companies/200717/reliance-industries-q1-profit-up-28-per-cent.html

All the so call "experts" no sound already ??

Ha ha ha........

2 chinese newspaper covered Petronm tonight :

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/255443/扩建炼油厂完成-petron大马-钱景-看俏

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/255459/擴張計劃帶動-佩特侖看好盈利前景

David, go for it & thanks in advance

U are welcome, just sharing relevant info only.

Cheers

The boss said it going to get better....... ha ha

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petrons-ang-sees-malaysia-gold-profit-jumps-expansion

@ Probability, just to share some relevant info.

Cheers

Refinery margin stay firm on healthy level

http://m.timesofindia.com/business/international-business/asia-distillates-cash-differentials-slip-cracks-hold-firm/articleshow/59528955.cms

Actually, the commercial sector is another area to look into it, the management stated commercial sector took up about 30% of the total revenue. The best part is this sector has been experiencing a double digits growth for the last 2 financial years.

Keep up the good work