Public Mutual use traditional value investing strategy. It buy because it believe the value, but not targeting active stock like Kenanga Growth Fund. It is also in Tongherr, which is slow and illiquid.

how a RM2 acquisition is a good news for a company with over RM400m market capital?

it's the moratorium, Dali mentioned that in the broadcast already.

Where do you think you can get shareholders' info?

just quarterly result betting, it will then be sell on news on date of release. Prolexus is mostly fairly valued, it may go slightly more overvalue but potential upside is limited.

The condensed milk biz is very competitive, johortin has mentioned that very often in ther quarterly. The most they can enjoy is few months, they has to lower price fast or sacrifice market share to comepetitor like cannone.

Capital Dynamic's latest newsletter give a rating of "Buy below RM1.60 for long term". iCap provide very conservative TP, it is a good recovery play if RM stabilize and SMP remain stable but not too low.

But it also stated previously that if Milk Powder price is bearish, finished product price will be under pressure. The effect would be Lower Revenue Value x Normalized Gross Margin, hence lower Gross Profit relative to Operating Expenses. Overall the company financial is highly exposed to Raw Material price and Forex. If both is stable moving forward, the group PAT should be recover to >RM20m range and making the Forward PE at mid tenth range

significant distribution happened 2 days ago. It will be in consolidation mode but uptrend is still intact technical wise and fundamental. Can buy at lower price range for higher Reward to Risk.

kingleecha, why tomorrow confirm DONW? What is the logic behind?

http://bullandbearresearch.blogspot.com/2015/05/sign-signal-is-finally-here.html
not sure why i3 didn't post it on headline

joel, you are right. SIGN is trying to participate in PRIMA, but that is still premature to consider that in at the moment.

SIGN is a cyclical stock, it's cycle lags property developers' apprxmtly 3 years (read TA report). More suitable for medium term investment (1-3 years)

nice, where do you get the log harvesting data?

No public info on this but the most possible motivation is liquidity and there are market demand. SIGN has very low free-float in the past. It could be hard for HSC to exit (if they wanted to do so much earlier) without negatively affect the share price. But with the outstanding performance reported by SIGN in the last Q, it is easier to exit now. HSC's exit also coincident with estimated completion of SIGN's contract in Aragreen Resident (HSC's project) around this quarter. One more thing, as mentioned in my post, the resignation of Dr. Lim in Jan last year may indicate the exit is more earlier-planed rather than recent negative development of the company.
Anyway, market is always right. HSC's selling have been meeting with high demand. I view this more positive than otherwise.

You can say so. A lot Investment Properties in their Book Value are below market value (a 3000+spft Aragreen Service Apartment at only around RM800K but MV should be around RM2m) I didn't mentioned that because its not a substantial amount. But normally investors are not too excited with their properties unless there are news of disposal. If not, it's just a hidden value. You can give it a discount, said 40% on the properties. it' s subjective. 10x PE is conservative considering its growth and brand name. But maybe reasonable should SIGN's liquidity reduced significantly after possible HSC's full disposal.

http://bullandbearresearch.blogspot.com/2015/04/sign-selling-fast-last-call.html

ethankin is right, HSC has again disposed their share aggressively. Looks like they really want to sell everything, there are still 4mil+ less, probably take them 2days more to sell all, if these 2 days volume is still high with moderate price movement or slight drop, probably they have disposed their share (which we will not be able to see it in announcement anymore). After, the tide should change direction

SIGN under heavy selling by HSC, a substantial shareholder, yet share price still resilient. It's like a upstream-swimming fish. Once the tide flow with the fish, it can be powerful.

Ya, i read that. They have been recommending the stock since 2013. But the liquidity and market interest were always low since then. But since HSC has sold over 10% of the stock, liquidity has since improve significantly. The stock should be the next big thing soon. It's my favorite stock now.

GDEX is a special case, the PE is something i never seen before, but market give this valuation because it expect GDEX to growth at rate close to 20% continuously for the mid to long term. In this case, the most suitable valuation method is DCF, which RHB has done it. "FY17 P/E pf 27.5"? Why FY17? Why 27.5? What is the comparable? PE is a type of "relative value" method, being "relative" means it has to be "relative". So 27.5x is relative to what? What a guess work

True, they are not investor friendly. But they have non-disclosure obligation, I don't think that info can be disclosed. I am ok with that, but I want to know their pricing/billing details. USD strengthening is generally beneficial to Prolexus but how much is this benefit shared between Prolexus and its customers? I am sure the customers will ask for discount with their position. Anyway, with that risk, what i can do is to use higher required return for this investment.

Those 600+ factories factory sales growth is a matter of (overall size of the pie represented by Nike's global order) x (Market share of the pie). This recent earning indicate the former is growing, but ability to grow also depend the ability to maintain or grow the later. In Prolexus case, the earning report further support management's previous comment on TheEDGE that their customers order are strong. Hence, the potential sales growth of Prolexus is huge, but actual growth also depend on the 2nd part of the formula, which is my concern on their ability to expand their capacity. Since Q2 is seasonal strong quarter, any slow YOY growth (<10%) may indicate capacity constraint. Besides that, if assume the Market share of the pie remain constant for all players, this only indicate growth in topline that may not necessary translates to the bottomline.

Teoseng is expanding its daily production capacity from 3.1m eggs to 5.1m eggs in 5 years time (+2mil egg, 500k p.a.). It's growing but LTKM is not growing but a value stock. You can refer to AmResearch's report for more details. LTKM is not expensive yet given the market's interest in poultry stock recently. I still see upside potential. However, there are liquidity risk, as LTKM's stock average daily trading volume is low, any adverse change in market sentiment may see its share price drop sharply when panic seller want to sell their holding while buyers holding back their investment.

Good point, will definitely look into it. Should it be EV/EBITDA instead of EBIT? EV/EBITDA is normally used for take-over stand-point, LTKM is a take-over target because key shareholder have 65% shareholding. EBITDA is fluctuating in the past (thought my projection is more stable moving forward). Anyway, just some early thought, will look into the details.

PBT RM2.67m but PATAMI only RM0.5M, yet Profit to Minority Interest is RM2m+. Carepls own 50%+1 on Carepls Global. How can Profit to MI more than PATAMI?

kklow77. You are welcome. Carepls seems interesting due to its capacity building story. But there are a lot of capacity coming from the big competitors as well. The industry is very competitive now with price war happening, Supermax is doing badly. But the recent financial seems doing well for Carepls. But to gauge the future better, a deep analysis is still necessary. I haven't done that, so can't comment too much. It's in a situation of either very good (if margin & market share can sustain) or bad (if Avg Selling Price is low like Q3 happen again).

http://imgur.com/QjddCev
I have done a very simple projection to obtain TP at RM0.83, which exclude RNAV of the Group's properties. The projection is generally optimistic, feel free to twist the no. Would appreciate anyone provide some insight on the RNAV of properties, which i haven't look into it.

GDV for project Tmn Kemuning Hijauan 2 is RM110M (90% sold) projet Kemuning Greenhill not sure but is 52 units SemiD so est. (56 x RM1.6m per unit = RM90M). Just nice a total of RM200M. However, I have done a SOP valuation using simple projection. I got TP at RM0.83 only, but my valuation have not includes RNAV of its properties. Will share my valuation soon when free later. I wonder where they get the land for development? The previous annual report stated most of the lands are for factory/warehouse purpose. Which land they are using for the development?

Thanks for the write-up. But OSV is already in oversupply condition with Daily Charter Rate declining. And the current low CO price will also discourage O&G Capex.

Plexus customer is mega corporate like Nike, who have strong bargain power. Nike should ask for discount to take a share of the benefit of strengthening USD. While furniture is generally facing smaller buyers. Hence, GPM for Prlexus is generally flat while furniture players is volatile. The coming result of furniture company is expected to be strong. While sales growth is expected to be moderate at single digit rate, GPM should improve by a few percentage point. That should drive significant PAT growth especially for thouse did not hedge. Pohuat and hevea should the biggest gainer.

All investment are subject to unsystematic risk (or company-specify risk e.g. operation distraction due to fire or riot, loss of major customer...), in order to get the potential return. For me, I am taking the risk in order to get the potential return, but don't overweight this counter too much due to the unsystematic risk (loss of major customer).

Lol, I can't tell u can sell or not. Depend on your strategy. But since you hold for so long, u look more like a long term investor. If market is good and the stock is not expensive, can keep for longer.
The website is bullandbearresearch.blogspot.com. Hope there are any proffessional out there spot my error, I strike to be accurate but it is not error-proof

My view on the current price rally - USDMYR has appreciated over 10% since FYE and 1Q end. The 2Q ending 31-Jan result is going to be explosive with possibly over 3m of forex gain (since FYE14) due to their USD-asset exposure (over RM25m usd of cash deposit in FY14). Gross margin may see a boost of 3% or more as products sold at pre-determined price in USD will be translated higher price in RM. This give a special one time earning before the customer request for price reduce. But trader have to be beware, Smart Money can possibly be exploiting this opportunity. They accumulate the stock and bring it up before earning announcement. After announcement, they can sell-on-news to retail buyers who regret of not buying earlier.
Besides that Smart Money hypothesis, the rally can also be a normal market response to USD appreciation.

Ven Felix: 10x times forward P/E is quite high considering the stock hardly touched 10x TTM P/E before. Will relook into the historical P/E and find any catalyst to review my valuation.

CCCL: The next quarter report should be explosive. With 10% USD/MYR appreciation, there could possibly be a RM2-3m of forex gain with their USD asset exposure. Gross Margin could possibly gained over 5%. Is an overall big pushed to the PAT. But trader have to be careful, Smart Money may take this opportunity to push the price high before the earning announcement to stimulate retail trader's buying. Then they can sell-on-news after the good news that lead even more retail buying.

Chonghai: thanks for bringing out. Maybe it's still on seed-stage, but will look into it.

kaonryou: TPPA? A new perspective for me, will review. The company like to keep cash. They prefer invest in vacant land rather than give it to the shareholders. Are they very ambitious because they think the cash can be invested more efficiently with them? Or are they simply another chinaman company who like to hoard all the wealth?

JT Yeo, salute, appreciate your comment. You are right, PE estimation is more like a guestwork, especially smallcap company with a more short-term investor than institution investor, PE can fluctuate in a large range. Perhaps i should not put a fixed PE to the stock (and put myself on the chopping table), maybe a range of possible PE or just stay away from setting a TP. I think Prolexus is a good investment though not informative, but one should not overweight too much in their portfolio as their 2 major customers contributed to over 80% of sales, which can be very dangerous if anything happen from this 2 customers.

thx for support, anything in the research that u doubt or think is inappropriately projected, pls leave comment.

cipapo, why u say tipu? I am new to writing research, if you spotted any area of my research is wrong, over or under estimate, bias or anything else. Feel free to comment. It's not the best, just hope my research can be better and better.

My TP set at RM2.28. But this is not a Buy/Sell recommendation. Kindly review to understand the company better and make your own call depend on your investment/trading strategy.
http://bullandbearresearch.blogspot.com/2015/01/prolexus-undervalued.html

Thanks for your support. Will do my best to write better researches next time :)

My analysis and projection on OKA. 1st time research, welcome any value-adding comments that are value-adding.
http://bullandbearresearch.blogspot.com/2015/01/oka-stable-construction-play.html

too much hedging, too much transaction cost and spread. Buying call and put warrant together is effectively net long on volatility, now volatility is quite high, if it go down, the position will cause net losses.