Yeah, happy.

https://fuelsandlubes.com/port-dickson-refinery-starts-upgrade-to-meet-malaysias-euro-4m-timeline/

You gotta be kidding me.
500k? Play so big kah?

@Lee Yih Yeong i loss almost RM500K right now. still accumulating this low PE stock..
holding = holland
sell = loser
buy = gambling
which one is you!

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/european-gasoil-crack-spread-calendar-swap.html

You know what!!!
Keep an eye on April 1st.
Donald Trump will say to the world.

"April foooool. I just play with you only la"

Hahahaha.

Aiyo, Uncle Dragon.
You cakap local bodoh.
Cannot accept, besok kena flag lagi lo.

Kikiki.

Aiyo, Uncle Dragon.
Itu sharing kena cun mah.
Info bo cun, cannot accept, kena flag la.

Kikiki,

@dragonslayer Aiyo..so obvious..good news I share..no flag...not so good one..kena flag..I cant sharing like this kah..must share all good one kah...aiyoyo...kikiki

Aiyo, Uncle Dragon.
Someone said only EEC countries can produce mah, even US can't match.
So I corrected it lo.
Sharing is caring mah.

Kikiki.

Based on PETRONAS news below, even Taiwan has the technology to build Euro5 plant.
Can see that Euro5 is not a space shuttle technology.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/21/petronas-signs-epcc-contract/

http://www.ctci.com.tw/
http://www.mie.com.my/v1/

And I doubt you are sincere to fellow friends here. Please prove me wrong. Thank you.

Hahaha, I just joined this forum last December.
Please don't pretend you know everyone in this forum.

"AmInvestment Bank said the RM1.92-per-share offer was not fair as it, among others, represented a discount from 53.8% to 59.6% over the range of fair value per SRC share based on discounted cash flow valuation of between RM4.16 and RM4.75 per share.
"

The discounted cash flow valuation at early 2015 was RM4.16 (Minimum).
Now 2018.
Don't trust anyone in this forum.
Do you own research.

Thank you.

The number was plucked from this tree, I believe.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/31/shell-refining-co-shareholders-shun-mhils-takeover-offer/

Shell already started the sale process in early 2015. This explains why HY can bought Shell refinery with such low price. Because Shell still losing money at that time.
I believe it was already too late when Shell discovered its profit can recover so soon.

"
SOHL started the sale process in early 2015 and MHIL became the highest bidder that was able to meet all of its criteria, including funding of the acquisition as well as refinancing of SRC’s debt,
"

You also did not disclose how you come out a fair value of 4.20.
I know you are interested to enter at 4.20, big margin of safety.
If can I also want to enter at 1.00, even bigger margin of safety.
If can enter at 0.10, even better.
If can enter at 0.01, no need to say.
Let's be fair to other, if you think it only worth 4.20, then you wait.

I see you bash this forum every few hours.
No one will waste their time here if they are not interested to this share.

If HY no economy moat, so does other refinery.
Because most people don't choose what brand of petrol they want to pump.
They choose which one is more convenient to them.
Shell has over 950 petrol stations in Malaysia.
While Petronm only has 550.
Who has more advantages to distribute the oil in market?

Why you didn't go to bash Petronm.
Petronm share is now 9.04.
If you see refinery is a bad investment, why not you save those in Petronm also.
Petronm also has a big CAPEX coming soon.
I see you are choosy in picking who to save.


3iii >>>>
BursaTornado Who is more pro, Morningstar or 3iii?
23/03/2018 22:21>>>>>


Do you know how to use Morningstar analysis optimally.


Quantitative Moat NONE
Valuation Undervalued
Quantitative Uncertainty VERY HIGH
Financial Health Moderate

Morningstar Fair Value 9.01
Last closing price 8.23

Hengyuan is trading very close to or just below the fair value quoted by Morningstar.

Would you be interested in Buying it at 8.23?


Given the very high Quantitative Uncertainty and NO Quantitative Moat (according to Morningstar), what price would you be willing to buy Hengyuan at so that you have safety of your capital and promise of a satisfactory return?

The lower the price you pay to own it, the bigger your margin of safety (protection of your capital) and the higher your potential rewards or returns.

If you are looking for big safety and big returns, you have to demand a big margin of safety.

I would be willing to buy the great companies with wide and deep economic moats, with consistent and growing revenues, earnings, CFO and FCF, with little or manageable debts, with low capex requirement relative to its CFO (<25%) at FAIR PRICE.

In Hengyuan’s case, the prudent and careful investor should demand a big margin of safety to its fair price.

I have stated my fair price for Hengyuan at 4.20. Am I in the wrong? We should do our own valuation using conservative assumptions. No two valuations will be the same. You will generally have the feeling the valuation is too high, fair or too low. In the final analysis, it is better to be approximately right than to be absolutely wrong, always with protection of your capital top in your mind. When you have taken care of your downsides, you will soon learn that the upsides take care of itself.

Too many participants in the forum greed for the upsides and failed disastrously to protect their downsides first.

In my years of investing, I do read a lot of annual reports and analysts’ reports. The analysts’ reports are superb in describing the business, financials and regurgitating what the managements share regarding the company’s business and future difficulties (often difficult to get from the company) and future growth. When it comes to their fair value calculations and recommendations to buy, hold or sell, I find these not useful the majority of the time. For this,I follow my own method of valuing the company and make my own decisions.

What you should have taken from Bloomberg’s report are:

1. The promoters price target of 19, 22 or 42 are unrealistic.
2. This company has no economic moat (let us not argue on this) and its financials will be more difficult to predict (volatility of earnings.)
3. How did Bloomberg come to it’s fair value of 9.01. Did they explain this? No.
4. You should do your own valuation conservativel if you still like this company. The smarter investors may not even bother since they may never buy such a company.
5. You need to demand a big margin of safety should you buy (at least 30%, even 50%.)


There is a group in this forum getting a signature campaign to put in the AGM demanding for dividend of a certain amount. The management in its reply clearly stated that Q3 2017 was exceptional for reasons they stated. Essentially the tone of the reply is this company still faces significant challenges, especially the huge capex required. A company with uncertain profits (due to fluctuating and uncertain refining margins), huge borrowings and large capex in the next two years and future years, the prudent thing is to manage it’s cash flows well. Sure, they can borrow more to pay dividends but that would be most irresponsible on the board of directors. Do the shareholders understand their company well. The proper thing for these shareholders is to vote with their feet by walkingaway from the company.

.

You can check my previous comment. I did the rough calculation. Please take note that is my rough calculation. I cannot guarantee there is no error in the calculation. Because I do not know at what market price HY bought the crude oil.

@lee

There is no one can do the calculation accurately other than HY, only rough figure.
You cannot use retailer price to calculate. Retailer sell the oil at premium.

@lee

If can, tangkap Wall Street Journal also.

Kikiki.


@dragonslayer Aiyo..morningstar not scare SC tangkap kah...wakakaka...kikiki

23/03/2018 22:16

Who is more pro, Morningstar or 3iii?

If the QR report is fake, will 3 sohai bank loan RM1.7b to HY?

@lanjiolang Ladies and Gentlemen, Just want to inform you that the Previous QR (after HY Shandong takeover Shell Malaysia) are FAKE one. The real one is coming soon....

http://quotes.morningstar.com/stockq/analysis-report?&t=XKLS:4324&region=mys&culture=en-US&version=RET&cur=&test=QuoteiFrame&e=eyJlbmMiOiJBMTI4R0NNIiwiYWxnIjoiUlNBLU9BRVAifQ.vGVoAG-tI92NoGTEEFGOuQYPqocgDbFJYVSZ_Vf_A0Qt0bpj3UQA7qCvU3Psf3i1Vn7HIAeeB5XqjVp9qvHYESjh8a6qkXiSsHaSVYsNFynlkfFbKliptpADomslgrXT7g-g68o7twl1kb92Vies6ns9r9FexLPXrCcHL20akNI.2VmlyAls8lF0wubm.i5ZhjV91dNO0_pX35P7mxWSaNk1LsckON7JgVwAEuoE5ghXxyQNxdmXl6fvmsHUmSvv-zoMl7n0jyJPZkKUmp3LTjl_zIu21R28sjc6Ifwkq93guOYwHlOgJR2mqP7Xwwau6nb80KKhEpEIFpy6XWL7gU9iUiOUNf6TofK56y4r2YGTo9MqrcSCFHCl1Y4uL_ZBD2HK0ubZrzlX9mtSKCrL5acGemBwLnwQAT2Q.RUmG2Oi4bP0JJZZQuc1z7A

Probability, why not you create a private facebook group. We will join you.
There is nothing to learn in this forum.

Ada dividend pun drop, tak ada dividend pun drop.
Haiz, pening.

Kikiki

Not easy also.
Local factory short of direct labour.

@jackfruit If Donald Trump rise tariff on China furniture export tomorrow Liihen will be laughing to the bank.

22/03/2018 18:23

Factory all cabut lo.

Factory all cabut lo.

Tom yam gong, don't laugh at people. People doesn't do anything bad on you. Have mercy.

Nonsense quote.

Well, donno how to answer?

@3iii

BursaTornado Is your life a game too?
Is your marriage a game too?

@3iii Is investing not a game?

22/03/2018 13:51

Is your life a game too?
Is your marriage a game too?

@3iii Is investing not a game?

Retailer hardly loss money.
Retailer buy the petrol at Mogas95 market price.
Then sell the petrol at market price + premium (roughly 32cents) per liter.


@Lee Yih Yeong as i know crude rise and petrol price at malaysia will impact on refinery and retail .
crude rise ,making refinery produce higher price oil but if government control the petrol price then impact on retail is trouble. they buy high price petrol and selling lower price to consumer.

22/03/2018 07:57

There is no reason for someone to press the share price to 7. Warrant already become pang sai chua at 8.

There is no reason for someone to press the share price to 7. Warrant already become pang sai chua at 8.

Refinery business had been losing money for many years in the last 10 years.
Why refinery lost money that particular years.

US recession, USD depreciate, right?
Followed by weak recovery and over speculation on crude oil price.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recession_in_the_United_States

Please correct me if I am wrong.

The question is will US great recession come again soon?
Past is not equal to future.

Mari pula Ryotan with only one comment.
Mau kena SC enquiry kah?

Kikiki.

Aiyo, my fren, CharlesT, you really don't have sense of humour la. You think SC will entertain BursaTomato meh?

Kikikiki.

Can report CharlesT create fear until beli murah.
Mau beli at 4 to 6.

Kikiki.

If create fear can kena tangkap, wa pun mau report SC.

Kikiki.

If create fear can kena tangkap, wa pun mau report SC.

Kikiki.

Create fear can kena tangkap?

Kikikiki.

All are lazy to entertain you.
We all prefer to entertain 3 chabo.

Kikiki.

@3iii

All are lazy to entertain you.
We all prefer to entertain 3 chabo.

Kikiki.

@3iii

Aiyo, Uncle Dragon.
Your era should be enjoying cha cha dance mah.

Kikiki.

@dragonslayer Aiyo...yalor...so boring...crab dancing on stage...left right..left right....mana ada shiok watch lah....aiyoyo...waiting JAWS 5 show better....horror movie lah....see blood ...see body...se mayat...aiyoyo...kikiki

21/03/2018 12:29

Hengyuan = Musang King.
Hengyuan king in Bursa, Musang King in durian farm.

Kikiki.

@joekit

Durian season coming earlier this year.
I read from news.

@hollandking

I stay in Bandar Baru Ayer Itam.

@Lee Yih Yeong

Lee Yih Yeong, you Penang lang? Island?

Compare the crude oil price against the EPS for the last 10 years.
Compare both Shell and Petronm.
Then, you can find the answer.

My bad again.

Posted by BursaTornado > Mar 19, 2018 03:25 PM | Report Abuse

Compare the crude oil price again the EPS.
Then, you can see why.

Or compare with crack spread, more precisely?

So how's the crack spread from Jan to now?

Compare the crude oil price again the EPS.
Then, you can see why.


Posted by CharlesT > Mar 17, 2018 12:25 PM | Report Abuse X

Anyway a quick look at their past 10 years' EPS

2017 Rm3.04+
2016 Rm1.10+
2015 Rm1.10+
2014 (RM4.00+)
2013 (RM0.50+)
2012 (RM0.30+)
2011 (RM0.30+)
2010 RM0.30+
2009 Rm0.90+
2008 (RM1.10+)

3 best years (EPS above RM1 fm 2015 to 2017)
2 profitable years (EPS 0.30 n 0.90 in 2009 n 2010)
2 extremely bad years (-RM4 in 2014 n -RM1.10 in 2018)
3 bad years (-0.30 to -0.50 in 2011 to 2013)

What tells u from the above?

Watch out closely for crack spreads? Welcome to Casino??

Agree with Lee, this forum has too much "small people" trying to take advantages on others.

If you can recall, Bursa went to "correction" mode after election last time.

@Jack888 股市看來有点不对劲...很多股都向下探低.