"michealwong" - Face mask is already oversupplied. Glove is in great demand and the lead time has reach 540 days (in Topglove case). ASP is still going up. If you look at Supermax cash in hand, they have already received hundreds of millions deposit. Glove will be short at least till end of 2021 and possibly 2022 (for now). How far can it go? Only god knows. This is an unprecedented crisis that no one has a clue on how to manage or when will it come to an end. Most likely is here to stay because too widespread and mutating very fast while scientist is discovering something new about Covid every month. Even top class leaders make a fool of themselves with ridiculous remarks.

"realdeal46" >> Is it really because of GDP data? Didn't catch the news. I have that in hand already from some bankers few days ago. -19% GDP in Q2 (due to lockdown) and -6% for the whole of 2020 (nominal case) and - 10% (worst case). This is worse comparing to Bank Negara initial assumption of 0% to -2%.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/russia-s-approval-covid-19-vaccine-less-meets-press-release This is the truth, if you don't lock in today, no chance to see this price anymore. Can't believe manage to buy at 3.70. Never thought will come this low.

If it's a hammer today, maybe tomorrow will go up tomorrow?

Really admire those market maker. Several glove counters almost limit down and then rebounded softly. Probably no show today, just gotta wait for a while. Hopefully, they push down again tomorrow.

If I'm Smart Money, that's what I will do capitalize on the Russia vaccine, press down kaw kaw. I'm collecting all the way down.

The key is effective and safety not being the first. https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2020/08/11/scientists-ask-without-trial-data-how-can-we-trust-russia039s-covid-vaccine

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2020/08/12/who-to-review-safety-data-of-russias-covid-19-vaccine/ Let's see how Russia respond to it. WHO and the world is skeptical. These leaders i.e. Trump, Putin, Duterte,...... are losing grip of the throne and subject to cheap publicity these days.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-08-11-20-intl/h_62ef4978f755a0cced7fa2b23fae59de The point is having a vaccine that is effective and safe, not to be first

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-08-11-20-intl/h_62ef4978f755a0cced7fa2b23fae59de The point is having a vaccine that is effective and safe, not to be first

"frank74" - You are absolutely correct. If they buys into Russia vaccine, US market would have been super-bullish. Trump has always been reported aided by the Russian in the last election. Good buddy. Russia? Don't give it a damm since they collapse after the cold war. Anyone here has any faith with Russia. Good luck to you! If I'm the Smart Money and Market Maker, I'll play on this vaccine theme before pushing up again. This has been repeated again and again. Why do you think so many "vigilante" coming here to save your ass and ask you to run? They are more interested to pick your ticket at discounted price.

"Kevin Tam" >> Actually I also do not what it meant by market expectation because they are so many figures coming from so many parties. Probably this forum, uncle/auntie in the pasar, a couple hundred or thousands are defined as the "market"? As far as the IBs are concern, many are revising the Supermax price up to 30s upward. As such it exceeds the market expectation and going forward the next QR PAT would be double of last QR. Harta was actually within expectation but that people are blowing it out of proportion making non sensible remarks without understanding its business model and its actual ASP. Despite only 5% increase in ASP, Harta delivered a stellar performance. Going forward would be 30%, so on and so forth. Anyway, I can't tell what and when is the Smart Money or Market Money next move, just go along with it. If I knew it was gonna reach RM7, I would not have dumped it at RM5 previously, and re-enter just recently.

I'm disappointed. With all this vaccine news, the stock did not drop. Probably people already immune with it? Russia approve its vaccine? Why not WHO? Russia can approve many things but how many Russia products that you have around you. We supplied machines to Russia for years and the local do not trust its own product (and would not use it, given a choice). Should ask Putin and Duterte to provide a live demo injecting themselves with the vaccine and then Covid. If just injecting themselves with vaccine, it may be just placebo or salt water.

Russia approves or CDC/WHO approves the vaccine? Russia can approve many things but how many Russian made product that you are using? We have been supplying our machines to Russia and even the local do not trust their product (and will not use given a choice). But I'm really thankful for this news because I was afraid cannot catch Comfort again below 5.

Frankly, if you look at the glove company, especially the Top 3, their book order already reach till end of 2021 and very soon 2022. I'm just wondering what are they gonna do with the cash. Supermax cash in hand increase from RM100M+ to RM1.1B+ (due to profit and upfront deposit) and subsequent quarter would be RM2B, RM3B, etc, easily pay-off the 2-years expansion plan with one quarter earning, likewise Comfort will also see super good earning in coming quarters. Those who quit, please go ahead, your holding is negligible and so is mine. Probably our mouth is bigger than our war chest. Even after KYY left Comfort with his multi-million investment, the market did not drop but shoot up thereafter.

"Baby Shark" >> That is depending on your personality, investment profile, strategy, war chest as well as entry price. The Smart Money and Market Maker are the champ in such game. I understood your feeling and that was why I entered and left multiple times and at the end of the day, it was more worthwhile to hold tight tight. After several months and seeing this repeated pattern to raise and damping the investors hope, I'm calmer now. That is neither right nor wrong, just that you have to develop your own investment strategy. Some just park money like FD and never look back till next quarter.

"foongkitmun" - Next QR will be in late Sep, around the same time as TopGlov.

Wait lah. Definitely will rally again. If you can predict the movement so accurately, you would have been the Market Maker or Smart Money instead of forum member. We just sit tight tight and follow the flow. The fundamental is intact so nothing to worry. More and more profit in coming quarters. Most fund will reallocate the portfolio in view of the lacklustre performance of most companies with the QR rolling out one after another in this month, next month and following month.

"loquezila" >> you are right. Losing steam to press down the price already. Volume is diminishing. Should rebound within this week. Hold tight tight and reload if you still have bullets.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/supermax_analystbriefing/2020-08-11 This is Supermax investor briefing for reference only. Increase volume, increase selling price from USD160 to USD180 (till July 31st) and further increase expected in Aug and Sep. Lead time up to 12 months. Biz continue to be robust at least for 1.5 years to 2 years. So all glove manufacturers will continue to see better QR after QR. Hold tight tight. I hold all big 4 and Comfort + Carepls.

Yup! roller coaster, the Smart Money need to press down kaw kaw before pushing up again taking advantage of this Russian vaccine as well as very promising glove counters QR coming out one after another. Just reloaded.

If I see Putin facebook, many people are criticizing him in many different languages and luckily there is google translate. We supply machines to Russia for the APEC event several years ago and even the local do not trust their own machines (given a choice). Just look around yourself and see how many Russian products that you are using. Get real! Sputnik my ass, no matter how great you are, it's history. Given time, maybe China will rise to be No.1 despite no where to be seen 30 years ago.

I think this Duerte need to first inject himself with the Russian Vaccine (which may be only placebo or salt water), and then inject himself with Covid-19 and see whether it works. No point just taking the vaccine. All these world leaders today are crazy, clueless and just want to create hype to gain popularity. Probably he should also follow Trump advice taking Clorox to kill the Covid as backup plan.

PZOGRO who cares about all these IBs TP, the last TP was in the 10s only and only a couple ones revise to 20s, they are way lagging behind the trend. We define the TP and let them catch up.

As expected, all IBs upgrade the TP and can you imagine what is the TP like when the next QR is out which is expecting to see probably RM800M PAT assuming 30% increase in ASP and also seeing higher percentages of OBM (which is now stood at only 55%). Hang on tight before the share price rally again, even gradual increase for 1 - 2 weeks as in previous month rally is good enough.

"alfredychingwong" >> Comfort is OEM if not mistaken. The owner suggested that we will see higher ASP increase in this quarter or next QR. He was kind enough to support existing customer thus did not raise the ASP much on last quarter, like Harta.

"xcu843" >> Supermax profit went up more than 25 times if comparing to previous quarter. ASP will increase around another 30% in this quarter, meaning the profit will jump from current 400M to maybe 700M to 800M on next QR. "KK" >> Supermax will start to make mask (not face shield) 8M pcs per month initially, in Malaysia, and then in Canada. From Topglov experience, they manage to setup the production in 2 months. Please look at Supermax financial report and announcement at https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/stocks/financial-report/7106/2020-06-30

All these mask making company limit up last week, so we should shout out to the Uncle and Auntie that Supermax is making Glove + Mask now. Double, triple limit up. From Topglov experience, they manage to get the mask making production line up in 2 months only.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/foreign-selling-accelerated-rm9375m-last-week-%E2%80%94-midf-research Not sure why some are concern with foreign fund outflow. It is very clear that the increase in retailer participation is much-much higher than foreign outflow while the institution participation is about the size of retailer.

Obvious press-down, another V-shape, before pushing up again. Really admire their tactics, able to repeat it again and again. Looking at the real time price movement, a sudden jump to rock bottom price and stay there for a short time with small volume. The rock bottom price is much lower than the immediate buyer's price in the queue, as though they place it there and buy it back at the same time like left hand passing it to the right hand.

Why do you guys curse those who sell-off. We should be thankful to them because It's accumulation time now, and eventually it will be pushed up. Without accumulating enough, they wouldn't push up so fast

Russia just started 3rd clinical trial and they claim to register it by Aug 12. Amazing! Anyway, that is a welcoming news so we can reload more.

Yup! They will push down kaw kaw for collection, otherwise no chance once the QR is released confirming the speculation.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/serum-institute-caps-proposed-vaccine-price-at-rs-225/dose/articleshow/77424541.cms For those who think vaccine filling is very profitable.

Talk is cheap. Next week we can infer from Supermax performance which has increase the ASP earlier + OBM model. Last quarter, the profit was around RM70MM and many expect that to quadruple or more. So, you can possibly tell Harta next quarter performance, and with additional capacity coming from Plant No.6 gradually. IB will raise Harta TP significantly without doubt.

I'm holding tight all the BIG BOYS. Harta only increase the ASP by 5% and the profit is already super. So what do you think with the new contract seeing ASP hike by 30% next quarter? Price hike is pure profit. When Supermax result is release tomorrow, IBs will see the reality and impact of ASP hike. IBs will start to revise the TP again. >90% of Harta product is nitrile glove (the golden boy), not latex glove.

After QR is out, most if not all IBs will revise the TP upward as what happened previously. Most IBs also revised Harta TP upward right after the most recent QR despite not so bombastic quarter result.

Please understand that scientist do not fully understand Covid and whether the antibody does really give adequate protection against Covid. Scientist discover something new every month. How notorious it is, how it attacks our body (or specific organ), lasting effect, how contagious it is, how aggressive it mutated, etc, etc. For now, kindly adopt the new norm instead of hoping a clueless attempt to bring an end to this crisis instantly. The Covid is too widespread, the efficacy of vaccine may be only 40% to 60% like the flu shot (thus need to be taken every year and that is not mandatory but optional).

As much as we are hoping for a silver bullet or vaccine to bring an end to today's Covid problem, but we should not risk the long term effect of unproven vaccine esp. healthy people. Please read above "We can’t skip steps on the road to a COVID-19 vaccine" by theeverge. Even a new car development would take years. Don't be mislead by those clueless leaders who wanted to mislead us to stay in power. Take a balance view on the situation and don't treat share market as gambling den. Take a more informed approach. Share price is already high and risk of collapsing is high esp. there is no proven solution yet. It is still not too late to jump in when the trend started, just that you may only miss the low point (and if that really happened). Worst case, there would not be a safe and reliable vaccine.

https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/8/4/21352706/covid-19-vaccine-steps-process-clinical-trials-speed-moderna

I also hope TopGlove will limit down with more vaccine news or US restriction, etc, etc so I can fish from the bottom but logically speaking, Moderna vaccine (using unproven mRNA tech) trial No.2 will be monitored for 15 months while third phase is schedule to finish by Oct 2022 though the lawmaker might want to rush the approval but will definitely hit the wall. Westerners have more human rights and exercise their freedom while government has no power to force them to be vaccinated without overcoming all the shortcomings or side effects. On the other hand, TopGlove export to 195 countries with present leadtime hovering at 520 days to 540 days (compared to 30 - 40 days pre-Covid) meaning they can easily divert the shipment to other countries. As time goes by, the leadtime will get longer and longer and US will be begging Msia to air-freight the gloves with the weather getting colder colder from Sep onwards.

I had personally visited the NGC and met Mr. Kuan. It's culture is very healthy (and they actually sent a team to Google campus to learn about its culture and system). Their system is by far the most innovative, more automation and embracing ERP/MRP as well as embarking towards IR4.0. You can enjoy a cup of Starbucks like latte for RM2 overlooking the lush green compound.

As pointed out in Warren ala carte above (reference edgemarkets article), Hartalega will raise the ASP by 30% (and possibly more) in this quarter. And when others see how explosive Supermax QR is next week with the increase in ASP (and OBM model), they can interpolate how well Hartalega is doing going forward. And, Hartalega performance would be more steady, sustainable and robust in the long run, prioritizing long-term customer. Please note that ASP increase would be pure profit.

freetospeak : Choi! I don't want to go hospital again where possible. In any case, it was covered by insurance. By the way, you can try BYO (bring your own) glove, and you have to allocate different sizes too for the medical workers. My bill shows they are using M and L (just a tip for you).

By the way, they used 5 pairs of unpowdered sterile glove (price quoted above) just for a minor one-hour procedure plus 1 lot of 20s latex glove (@RM17.50). Latex glove was so cheap!

I was looking at my SJMC hospital bill in Jan, just before the Covid crisis. They charge RM10.40 per pair or RM5.20 per piece, multiply that by 1,000 pieces and divide by 4.2 (assuming USD1.00 : MYR4.20), we are looking at more than USD1,000. USD200 ASP should not be a problem in due time even after taken into consideration of markup by middle-man, importer and by the hospital. Can we attached any picture in this forum? Just want to show the proof.

Don't think will limit down since they still have the assets unlike AAX. More and more losses in coming quarters. The worst has yet to come. Toursim, Hospitalilty, Transportation (or Airline), O&G all kaput. 2020 is a year of survival for most businesses, not profit making unless it is relating to cloud computing, healthcare, government (or government contract), etc.

Personally, I do hope that a high efficacy and safe vaccine or viable solution would come as soon as possible so that everyone can get on with our normal live, business as usual, watching blockbuster in cinema, enjoying sports match, holidaying around the world, enjoying respective country culture/delicacies, etc. Under present situation, many businesses are suffering/collapsing while schools/businesses/activities are restricted. Even making money from glove stock also unable to enjoy life to the full. But in reality check, going back to old norm is probably not possible in short-medium term. We just need to live with whatever quick-solution that comes along the way while looking for a more tangible long term solution.

Thamby GloveBubble, dot-com bubble is different because everyone expect as long as you have a dot-com you'll succeed despite no prospect, no earning, etc. But in glove case, they have book order up till 540 days as of July (from 420 days in June and 30 - 40 days pre-Covid), and guideline on ASP increased by 15% - 30% in Aug. The demand is real, earning is real and downpayment has had been received as well. Wearing mask is real, social distancing is real, no of infection is real, no of death is real. The race for vaccine development is on. WHO and US are lowering the bar suggesting even if efficacy is minimum 50%, that would be a GO. Another barrier is that people may be reluctant to take the vaccine (projected in the low 20% to 50%). Supposedly many will wait till safety is assured. Another thing to be considered is how many shots and intervals are required to achieve adequate protection as well as frequency (maybe like flu shot being administered every year and efficacy is only 40% to 60% thus still many die during flu season in US). In short to medium term, even if vaccine is available, Covid is here to stay because it was too wide-spread, mutating very fast but the presence of vaccine may be able to reduce the gravity of the problem thus hopefully allowing the government to cope with the fall-out more effectively. Glove demand post-Covid crisis would be definitely higher than pre-Covid but no one know for sure how much would that be. If vaccine is being dispensed whole year round and Covid cases remained at rather controlled level, then glove demand would definitely stay as more health workers are working around the clock. How far can the glove stock go? Only time will tell...... For now, please stay in touch with reality (and stop masturbating).

NOTE : This is "novel" virus thus high level of efficacy may be difficult to achieve. 50% efficacy does not mean if you don't get the protection, your partner will definitely get the protection. The odds remain the same like BIG - SMALL game in casino. 20 straight BIG or SMALL is not uncommon. Furthermore, higher efficacy during clinical trial does not translate to actual scenario, only reference or guideline only.

https://www.pmo.gov.my/2020/05/bilateral-cooperation-covid-19-among-to... - Why do you think obnoxious Trump call Muhyiddin in May? What kind of bilateral Covid 19 co-operation? And how can Malaysia be of any help? Everyone knows Trump don't give a f#@k to anyone unless there is something he wants from him/her. Thereafter, our gloves were air-flown out of the country, instead of going by ship and MASKargo has to use some of the passenger airline for cargo shipment.