A lot of nonsense lately, ban by NZ? There are more sheeps than human in NZ (less than 5M population, smaller than Spore market). Only one supermarket chain (not entire NZ). European union to source from Mercator only? How many can Mercator supply, just a RM 4billion company. TopGlov can always diverse the shipment and supply to another country. The leadtime increase from 30 - 40 days pre Covid to 420 days in June and 540 days in July/Aug. The leadtime will only get longer and longer due to demand surpass the supply by a HUGE margin.

https://paultan.org/2020/07/24/june-2020-malaysian-vehicle-sales-go-up-by-94-7/ June 2020 car sales surpassed June 2019 sales, why is the share price down? 1 year ago Bauto share price was RM2.54. Is someone collecting the shares before pushing up?

https://www.avert.org/professionals/hiv-science/developing-vaccine. Since 80s AIDS vaccine development is still underway..............

Judging from the coronavirus vaccine tracker, more and more company will enter into Clinical Trial No.3, and so the news of successful stimulating antibody on early trial will surface from time to time, again and again. As Moderna suggested, they do not know what is the right level of antibody is required to provide protective level against Covid and how long the antibody will last. It is still a long way to go, and probably no vaccine is found like AIDS back in the 80s which is big HYPE and many celebrities also contracted AIDS and then......... we live with it. AIDS vaccine is still in development since 80s, and that is already closer to 40 years.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html. Moderna is not the first to enter Clinical Trial No.3. Every now and then, the media and politician will publicize the unfounded initial finding to calm the market but it is still far from success. If the antibody diminish over time or cannot last for at least one year, then it is a failure. If successful, re-vaccination may be required every year like a flu shot but the question is whether they can produce so many billions in a year, and maybe multiple shots are required like Moderna case which show better stimulation on second shot. If continue vaccination is required, glove demand will stay. Cost is another matter, maybe expensive. In any case, I would not want to be the lab rat and may only opt for vaccination when it is proven without side effect. I would not want to have other serious side effects or implications like weird disease or disorder, higher chances of cancer, heart disease, etc just to overcome Covid which is probably not so risky.

Clinical trial No.1 and No.2 is normally fast but Clinical No.3 would take a long time to verify that the antibody produced would last at least a year, if anything lesser than that then it is considered failed. Personally, hoping the vaccine would be found in a year from now (at the earliest) but it seemed unlikely since we are still trying to figure out what is this Covid-19, while scientist are publishing new findings every month. This Covid-19 is mutating and multiplying very fast and does not go away in hot climate unlike SARS. Western countries would be entering into Fall season in 2 to 3 months, brace for the impact.

Hopefully Harta is aggressively enticing the investor like Supermax.

Wondering what is Harta profit in last quarter? Supermax coming quarter profit is estimated at RM410MM (due to ASP jump from USD60 to USD160) because they have their own distribution channel and own brand, thereby the growth is around 2,500% q-o-q, no longer 300% to 500%.

Any optimism about vaccine can be put off for the time being. It is just the media and politicians wanting to calm the market but they are completely clueless. Fauci also suggested that due to FDA requirement, the first shot of trial will be push to beginning of next year and then it may take another one year or so to see the efficacy or drop in antibody in the human subjects across that period. Even Oxford is suggesting the efficacy of the vaccine (if proven successful) may only last a year or so thus re-vaccination may be required every year and if that is the case the glove demand and exponential growth will b here to stay. One thing for sure is that the order book for the big 4 go as far as end of 2021. Also, the pharma companies cannot produce that much of vaccine in a year, then the question is whether we are going to have a lasting solution of that we just have to live with it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-02/world-needs-more-than-one-vaccine-to-tackle-pandemic-fauci-says

Congrats for those who are still holding Kossan. I sold too early this morning, making only 15% profit. Will buy again if it ever press down by IB but will not spread fake news or negativity with the hope to reenter at cheaper price.

EPS is 3.56, and if multiply by 4Q (assuming no increase in profit) is 14.24, and assuming P/E of 22 (according to KLSE Screener), the fair price should be 14.24 x 22 = RM3.13. If next Q up, then the fair value would be even higher?

June 19 : Green Packet Bhd saw 60 million shares change hands at 80 sen, which is a nearly 16% premium over today’s closing at 69 sen. Wow, who pays a premium for so many shares off-market.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/691379/6-stake-in-green-packet-crossed-off-market-at-price-higher-than-today-s-closing

Worst case is that no "safe" vaccine is found like SARS. And Covid may mutate very fast and we need to learn to live with it like Denggi.

Some investment forum seemed to be suggesting to its members that the entire month of June would be volatile. For intra day trade probably dump in the morning, collect at midday or after 4:30pm. Anyway, at least another few strong quarters to come. All big glove manufacturers had backlog orders for more than one year. A "safe" vaccine will take at least 18 months (though no one has ever done that and on the average it will take 10 years, according to Lancet) and can you imagine how long does it take to manufacture, distribute and dispense to the whole world if the glove manufacturer take more than 12 months to fulfill the order. Vaccine is unlike glove or mask, and is more delicate.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/coronavirus-malaysian-firms-led-by-worlds-top-glove-maker-prioritise-medical-supplies Top Glove can setup a small mask production line in 2 months that is able to churn out 110 million pieces annually. Basically, any tom dick and harry can produce mask. But this will not happen with glove.

Any Tom, Dick and Harry can produce face mask, even home made also can. TopGlove just imported some machines and also trying to produce face mask. Maybe a good strategy tapping into the same distribution network. Glove especially NP nitrile glove is a different thing and Malaysia control 2/3 of the world market. Malaysia is also a leader in nitrile glove technology. To setup a glove factory and also meeting FDA requirement would require 2 years (and probably 1 year if on super expedited schedule with the land ready already). The order backlog is more than 12 months thus the manufacturer can demand high price. In SARS case, the demand for gloves lasted 5 quarters even it was far less severe then, and in Covid case, the demand is expected to last at least 8 to 9 quarters. And, if there is no vaccine, it will last a long long time. The truth is no one can tell if a vaccine can be successfully developed in 18 months because on the average it will take 10 years, even SARS has no vaccine till today. The scientist are trying to understand the nature of Covid as it mutated quite rapidly and there are so many different genome found throughout the world. Thereby, different statement surfaced every month. There are probably 100 vaccine development programs running concurrently and every now and then, the media and politicians will publicize some positive result at early stage to keep people out of the blue though they are completely clueless. Also, the vaccine manufacturing and distribution will take at least one year thereby some countries signed an agreement with pharmaceutical company to be the first to receive it when the vaccine was successfully developed. All country leaders are clueless and can't do much at the same time.

Goodlah, then got good chance to buy in undervalue stock, otherwise, how can the stock go up everyday not to mention not so much room to grow already.

No vaccine lah. Just agreement to get a first hand on the vaccine when it is available, if that is available, and when that is available. According to Lancet, it takes an average 10 years to come our with a vaccine and 18 months was arguably very very very aggressive. Will take another year or so for manufacturing and distribution and that is why some countries want to get a first hand on it when that is available. Every now and then the media and politicians have to shed some hope and show that they are doing something which in fact, they don't have a definite answer or even slightest idea. Frankly, I would not want to be the guinea pig as well as volunteer myself to be the first to take the vaccine, afraid that it will cause complication in the short term or in the long run like the swine flu vaccine which cause rare disease. I'm pretty healthy and do not want to end up with increase chances of cancer, heart disease, etc or developing other rare disease for no reason while Covid fatality rate is very low and not dangerous but contagious and higher risk for aged and pre-condition group. We have recorded more dengue cases as well as death annually.

Unfortunately, Hibiscus already locked-in the production for North Sabah at US$35, thus no extra benefit despite oil surge. Probably will see jump in profit next year if oil price recovers. As far as CAPEX and OPEX, Petronas already deferred many projects to early 2021 provided the oil price stays above US$40-$45. The key is stability, no frequent up and down. Hopefully, no Covid second wave later this year, and OPEC+ able to keep the optimum production to stabilize the price. On the other hand, US shale are restarting thus will increase the production volume.

Bill Gates and the crew are just getting the facility prepared, so that in the even the vaccine is found (which could be many months or years) down the road, they could expedite the vaccine manufacturing and distribution which can take another year or more to reach every corner of the world.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31252-6/fulltext. On average it takes 10 years to develop a vaccine. With the Covid 19 looming crisis, experts argue that even 18 months is super-aggressive schedule. The media just want to make headlines by publishing unfounded claims that vaccine could be as early as next quarter, this year, early next year, blah, blah, blah, blah.

NST 24 Apr 2020 >>> KUALA LUMPUR: Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) is said to have reduced the number of its fully active rigs from 18 to four since oil price began dropping late last year.

The national oil company had shut down or warm-stacked 14 projects until oil price recovers to break even levels, an industry publication reported, quoting sources.

Principal Asset Management Bhd, which served 700,000 investors with RM58.2 billion of assets under management as of last year, said there were increasing risks of some Petronas projects being delayed due to prolonged lockdowns and further disruptions in the global supply chain.

The impact of the project delays would likely be cascaded down and adversely affected upstream service providers, Principal chief investment officer Patrick Chang said in a statement today.

The impact of the project delays would likely be cascaded down and adversely affected upstream service providers, Principal chief investment officer Patrick Chang said in a statement today.

Petronas shuts down 14 projects until oil price recovers

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/04/587082/petronas-shuts-down-14-projects-until-oil-price-recovers

Petronas shuts down 14 projects until oil price recovers

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/04/587082/petronas-shuts-down-14-projects-until-oil-price-recovers