Recent maybank negative on gloves and recession expectation in US is causing this down trend. If you look at defensive stocks didn't go down in US stocks yesterday. These are staples like Nestle, Unilever, P&G, Campbell Soup etc .... It's a play on expectation on recession.

My bet on Glove is for coming recession. Glove is used in healthcare, food processing... which are staples industry. Meaning good or bad times ... ppl need these products and services. No worries. Wait for Harta QTR result. Hope can dissipate maybank negative outlook on gloves.

If you look at defensive stocks didn't go down in US stocks yesterday. These are staples like Nestle, Unilever, P&G, Campbell Soup etc .... It's a play on expectation on recession.

But my bet on Glove is for coming recession. Glove is used in healthcare, food processing... which are staples industry. Meaning good or bad times ... ppl need these products and services. I'll going in next week.

Unemployment rate 4.3%. Forecast is 4.1%..... Going down liao la...

Me too 😅 .on Aug 1st.. Today 2nd tranche executed. Now my last tranche to execute... I'll be patient next week.

ChandranG

EPF can get cheap price If they buy today not on 29 July 😁

But Amz beat EPS by 20% wor .... Just watch the unemployment rate. Forecast is 4.1%.

Amazon.com (AMZN)
EPS 1.26 / 1.03 (Forecast)
Revenue 147.98B / 148.68B (Forecast)

Whole market from West to East bloodbath la


NatsukoMishima

Wow , stampede ! bloodbath !

Hahahaha ... this Natsuko fella is a sore l0ser la . He thinks he is the best in trading.
He lost not only in DNEX but also ISkandar Waterfront. His waterfront leaking like hell.... hahahaha

YourQuirkyWays29

You said the same thing at RM1.8, 2.4, 2.9, 3.3 and now 3.8, RM1.8 doesnt look very smart now unless they bought again at RM1.5. Diam la seriously.

Like KimSua says. Fundamental and the narrative is still intact.

2.8x for TopGLove. Glove is still good.

Best Buy 139,332
Best Sell 48,363

Yeah ... Still in demand. Bid is 2.2x Ask.
We are ok guys. Relax

Best Buy 16,593
Best Sell 7493

I'm looking to enter. Observing TA.

It is just normal day trading activity I feel. Kossan price is attractive compare to other glove companies.

Endgame

Why abrdn and epf keep selling, small quantities day by day? Anyone can explain their intentions?

From USTR's public opinion on the tariff, the hospital association said to have difficulty finding alternative to syringes suppliers outside China. I am hoping USTR will delay syringes tariffs and replace with gloves instead for this Aug. They extend the review for 2 more weeks on the matter. We will know in 14 Aug.

Nah where got kesian? I got top up Kossan.

From USTR's public opinion on the tariff, the hospital association said to have difficulty finding alternative to syringes suppliers outside China. I am hoping USTR will delay syringes tariffs and replace with gloves instead for this Aug. If what you said is true abt increase tariff to 50%, then it's even better.

KimSua

They might increase the tariff to 50 percent as medical industry provide positive comment on alternative supplier

Anybody got in at good price? I bought some at 2.07. 2 more tranches to play with.

Chipee

Opportunity to collect. Set a budget. Divide into 3 tranches and buy. Set lowest possible buy price.

Yes. I saw USTR asking for public opinion on the tariff. They mentioned whether 25% or higher. Never mentioned lower tariff. Meaning to say 25% as the lowest tariff. They extend the review for 2 more weeks on the matter. We will know in 14 Aug.

KimSua

They might increase the tariff to 50 percent as medical industry provide positive comment on alternative supplier

Hahaha ... I knew this Natsuko will reappear.

Overaction up = Sell. Overaction down = Buy. Sentiment play.

Endgame

Market overreaction so called the analyst plant visit. My China friend work in Intco told
me China government want them to ready enough medical glove to deal with the next pandemic, so there will be no local shortage of medical glove if that time coming. This is main purpose, they learn from experience. Analysts didn't tell you this as their purpose is to influence the price down so they can collect more Kossan. Demand of medical glove will in uptrend, will not come down.

Opportunity to collect. Set a budget. Divide into 3 tranches and buy. Set lowest possible buy price.

SWT1988

Slowly disposing after touching oversold position this morning? Weak closing will be bad

Maybank report on China gloves spooked them. The Star paper.

SWT1988

what happened to harta? going back below 2.50 again?

Ok ... I'm going back in for more. Finally.

The biggest joke is Maybank analyst visited China production and got glittered eyes. They see touchscreen and "high tech" stuff and they lost their minds. Ridiculous ..... 😂

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/07/31/glove-sector-to-see-continued-challenges-ahead

The biggest joke is Maybank analyst visited China production and got glittered eyes. They see touchscreen and "high tech" stuff and they lost their minds. Ridiculous ..... 😂

From Hartalega forum I share it here:

The only fear of China gloves is them undercutting in ASP. Lets think this logically.

TopGlove ASP is $17. Operational Loss
Hartalega ASP is $21. Operational Loss
Kossan ASP is $16. Operational Profit
China ASP is $16. Operational Profit

Logic 1:
Is China operation so cost effective and "special" that they are still in operational profit although selling at lower ASP?
Answer is NO. If that is true, then Kossan should be in operation loss like other Msian gloves company. Since Kossan is making operational profit, this can only mean LOWER ASP are STEALING ORDERS from HIGHER ASP glove makers. Demand being limited, hitting the right volume will make operational profit. China "high tech" operation is NOTHING SPECIAL. Hartalega and Kossan have automation in their production. They are also very "high tech".

Logic 2:
Can China expanded production capacity kills Msia glove makers by stealing orders with lower ASP?
Answer is NO. Four biggest Msian glove companies had already cut production capacity in 2023/24 to reduce losses. So if China expand bigger, the higher FIXED COST will bring their operation to losses. Glove is a thin profit margin product. It's balance between ASP and VOLUME to be profitable. China cannot afford to lower their ASP further (Back to Logic 1: China "high tech" is not special).

Logic 3:
Then why China expanded their production capacity?
Bcoz of covid, ALL glove makers expanded their production capacity. China had zero-covid policy which extended the life of their expanded capacity. China will make losses if TopGlove and Hartalega lower their ASP to $16. This will easily kill of China glove makers. It is all about GETTING THE VOLUME ORDER or demand increases. If China is smart, they too should reduce production capacity (But apparently, they are not).

China only has ONE tactic ... throw price. But US tariff of 25% in 2026 will kill them. If Donald Trumps win, 60% tariff will definitely kill them and we don't need to wait until 2026. Lets hope Trump wins.

US market covers 30% of global glove demand. But higher tariff will improve Msia glove ASP significantly and GETTING 30% of the GLOBAL VOLUME ORDER.
$16 x 1.25 = $20.
Msia just need to sell at $19 to kick China's order out of US.
China glove will definitely go into LOSSES with LOWER VOLUME.

As for 70% of the global market, Malaysia can just follow China's price to be competitive.

US market covers 30% of global glove demand. But higher tariff will improve Msia glove ASP significantly and GETTING 30% of the GLOBAL VOLUME ORDER.
$16 x 1.25 = $20.
Msia just need to sell at $19 to kick China's order out of US.
China glove will definitely go into LOSSES with LOWER VOLUME.

As for 70% of the global market, Malaysia can just follow China's price to be competitive.

The only fear of China gloves is them undercutting in ASP. Lets think this logically.

TopGlove ASP is $17. Operational Loss
Hartalega ASP is $21. Operational Loss
Kossan ASP is $16. Operational Profit
China ASP is $16. Operational Profit

Logic 1:
Is China operation so cost effective and "special" that they are still in operational profit although selling at lower ASP?
Answer is NO. If that is true, then Kossan should be in operation loss like other Msian gloves company. Since Kossan is making operational profit, this can only mean LOWER ASP are STEALING ORDERS from HIGHER ASP glove makers. Demand being limited, hitting the right volume will make operational profit. China "high tech" operation is NOTHING SPECIAL. Hartalega and Kossan have automation in their production. They are also very "high tech".

Logic 2:
Can China expanded production capacity kills Msia glove makers by stealing orders with lower ASP?
Answer is NO. Four biggest Msian glove companies had already cut production capacity in 2023/24 to reduce losses. So if China expand bigger, the higher FIXED COST will bring their operation to losses. Glove is a thin profit margin product. It's balance between ASP and VOLUME to be profitable. China cannot afford to lower their ASP further (Back to Logic 1: China "high tech" is not special).

Logic 3:
Then why China expanded their production capacity?
Bcoz of covid, ALL glove makers expanded their production capacity. China had zero-covid policy which extended the life of their expanded capacity. China will make losses if TopGlove and Hartalega lower their ASP to $16. This will easily kill of China glove makers. It is all about GETTING THE VOLUME ORDER or demand increases. If China is smart, they too should reduce production capacity (But apparently, they are not).

China only has ONE tactic ... throw price. But US tariff of 25% in 2026 will kill them. If Donald Trumps win, 60% tariff will definitely kill them and we don't need to wait until 2026. Lets hope Trump wins.

Yeah, This is for the long run. But I don't have Harta. I have Kossan.

YourQuirkyWays29

@Chipee I'm not overly optimistic about the Aug QR though. Better be prepared for the worst, and hodl, better things will come. US election later this year could bring in some irrational buyers.

KENANGA is your best friend I know. They always down play glove. By the way, the chart for 'DEMAND' does not account for Malaysia cut production capacity in 2023/24. Also other player like Thailand and China cutting production. Their valuation is the most ridiculous bcoz they don't take account on cash holding in Kossan and Hartalega.

NatsukoMishima

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1362621

Sto RSI is oversold below 20. It should bounce up this week.

Last QR out 1 month late. So I expect the same for this qr result. Hopefully I'm wrong.

I wonder if we can allow our broker to allow shorties to use our stock for shorting? Basically lending them our stocks for them to short. We make some interest in the process. Warren Buffet loves that.

Kenanga totally ignore the Rm2bill cash in Kossan in their TP calculation. This Rm2bill brings in 40million in clean interest revenue annually.

ChandranG

Kenanga still shorting glove stocks ...😑

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719944

Trump win has this effect
1) 10% tariff on every imports and 60% tariff on China. That 50% difference which more than 25% tariff in 2026. And we don't need to wait until 2026 for the effect.
2) Allow export of US Natural gas which will lower global price. Msia gloves use natural gas as energy.
3) Higher US import tariff => Higher US inflation => Higher Rates => Higher US dollar. Kossan and Harta export to US for USD.

Msia glove sector is the best bet for Trump win.

Trump win has this effect
1) 10% tariff on every imports and 60% tariff on China. That 50% difference which more than 25% tariff in 2026. And we don't need to wait until 2026 for the effect.
2) Allow export of US Natural gas which will lower global price. Msia gloves use natural gas as energy.
3) Higher US import tariff => Higher US inflation => Higher Rates => Higher US dollar. Kossan and Harta export to US for USD.

Msia glove sector is the best bet for Trump win.

You are quite conservative my fren... I'm looking at Rm70-80mill based on ASP of $17-18.

Albukhary

I expect coming QR Kossan can deliver PAT of RM60-70mil.

NatsukoMishima trying to get others to boost up his shares... Wat the is this? Hahahaha ....
Sell Ranhill, sell vstec if any of you own it.

Assassination on Trump fail. I consider Trump already won the election. China's going down.
Glove is going up.... Now Trump just need to stay alive to win the election.

Assassination on Trump fail. I consider Trump already won the election. China's going down.
Glove is going up.... Now Trump just need to stay alive to win the election.

If Kossan release Q1 in 21 May 2024, then the Q2 result will be out 21 August. I don't why they keep moving their release date. It's very annoying.

American Hospitals Association wrote a letter to USTR to reconsider the tariff on medical products from China. This part of the letter:
"The AHA urged the USTR to only impose tariffs if it demonstrates sufficient manufacturing capacity outside of China to make choices among manufacturers a credible option. "

Gloves are easily available outside China. .. as in Malaysia. :)
So if USTR may reduce the tariff on other medical products from China, will USTR apply 25% tariff on China's gloves as early as 2025? Knowing US need to collect tax to pay their debt and reduce their fiscal deficit.

American Hospitals Association wrote a letter to USTR to reconsider the tariff on medical products from China. This part of the letter:
"The AHA urged the USTR to only impose tariffs if it demonstrates sufficient manufacturing capacity outside of China to make choices among manufacturers a credible option. "

Gloves are easily available outside China. .. as in Malaysia. :)
So if USTR may reduce the tariff on other medical products from China, will USTR apply 25% tariff on China's gloves as early as 2025? Knowing US need to collect tax to pay their debt and reduce their fiscal deficit.

This guy hoping other traders to push his losing stocks up 😂😂😂

NatsukoMishima

Tanmeili come vstecs , ranhill better , enough cover back your losses in glove !

Anwar announce to join BRICS, KLSE just sold off. Could it be the reason?

Anwar announce to join BRICS, KLSE just sold off. Could it be the reason?

If you have not seen the news, RIGHT parties are winning in Europe. We will see the result in UK and France election results next month. If they take over the governments, rest assure more tariff on China. I doubt China can take over Europe market.

Let the data sink in for them. We will see the next week. As Kimsua highlighted, options expiring.

ChandranG

Sell on good news today?

Now I'm observing 28 June. USTR is collecting opinions from their industry players on the tariff hike. I'm hoping they want it to be earlier than 2026. Old and bigger players may want to kill their small/new players in US. These new players has been "disturbing" their profit using China's gloves. We'll see. Can only hope.

Now I'm observing 28 June. USTR is collecting opinions from their industry players on the tariff hike. I'm hoping they want it to be earlier than 2026. Old and bigger players may want to kill their small/new players in US. These new players has been "disturbing" their profit using China's gloves. We'll see. Can only hope.