I made a quick calculation on the data of Kossan selling at $16 per 1000 gloves.

Q1 2024:
Revenue = Rm 451,625,000 = $96,090,425 (at 4.7 xchange rate)
Gloves sold per 1000 unit = $96,090,425/$16 = 6,005,652

Conclusion on SPECULATION:
Kossan can sell at $17.20. China is selling at $16 too but there's a 7.5% tariff which equals to $17.20.
Meaning Kossan could had make:-
Revenue: 6,005,652 x $17.20 = $103,297,207 x 4.7 = Rm485,496,875
Extra profit at same cost: Rm485,496,875 - Rm 451,625,000 = Rm33,871,875

As ASP improve, Kossan can sell at higher price. Harta's ASP is $21. So Kossan has much room to move up.
Just by taking ASP of $18, Kossan can easily make extra Rm56.5 million.
Rm56.5 million + Rm22.2million (Q1 24 PBT) = Rm78.7million.
Which is similar to 2019 quarterly earning.

On Utilization Rate.
Also, 6,005,652,000 per quarter means 24 billion per year. Kossan annual capacity is 32 billion in 2019.
24/32 = 75% utilization rate. This number could be lower if follows 2024 annual capacity but I don't have the number.

I see improvement. I'm holding and hope to see better Q2 results as ASP is stabilizing.

I made a quick calculation on the data of Kossan selling at $16 per 1000 gloves. Info from here:
https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/03/1031853/kossan-rubbers-sales-may-remain-stagnant-first-half-2024-says#:~:text=The%20firm%20added%20that%20Kossan,FY23%20to%20enhance%20operating%20margins.

Yeah. I was waiting for this. Foreign funds coming in would be a good opportunity to trim down.
Higher lows make it hard to swing trade on this. Unless there big news on gloves. I think next lookout is TopGlove results.

2 sore losers putting down on Harta when the price is going up. I seriously have no idea what they are doing. Shouldn't they be focus on the shares they buy? I suspect they have personal vendetta against Harta. They must had lost a lot of money here.... 😂😂😂

Counting on natural gas over coal for ESG. China is all coal. But still a long hard fight.

😂😂😂

xiaoeh

so do i....
i mean kepo...😂

No. I'm only invested in Kossan. But Harta forum is more active... so I kepoh there. 😅
To me Kossan should catch up with Harta in price.

Demand is more than Supply. Price should go up.
Best Buy 24010 / 152
Best Sell 4002 / 62

ARBDN is back :)

Observe other markets today. If it goes up, maybe KLSE will go up too.

@Sslee
So compare the above cost what Malaysia glove manufacturers have advantage over China?

Cost:
Raw material cost (SAME)
- Same cost ..but China quality lesser bcoz thinner gloves. Reject by US & Euro standard. So if they make with equal quality to Msia, their cost is the same.

Utility cost (China Advantage )
- China use coal (cheaper). Msia use Natural Gas (NG). But it's not like China burn coal right under the melting latex. It is coal burning to convert to electricity to melt the latex or nbr. So probably comes to be almost equal. Msia just burn NG under the melting latex like a stove.

Manpower cost (China Advantage )
-China manpower power advantage is reduced by automation. China is still slightly advantageous but negligible. Volume game reduce the advantage. One man press button to produce thousands of gloves.

Logistics, shipment and marketing cost (Malaysia advantage)
- Malaysia is closer to US and Europe market. Lesser travel distance. But with volume game, it is probably negligible.

Depreciation cost (SAME)
Tax/duty cost (SAME)

If we add all this up, plus and minus .. it comes out about the same. BUT .... It's big BUT(t)

Economy of scale... TopGlove is still the biggest producer in the WORLD. And TopGlove is losing money. Meaning overhead cost is killing profit. CHINA ZERO-COVID LOCKDOWN is over since end 2022. China extraordinary glove demand is dead. There may even be oversupply in China. TopGlove close their production in China. Meaning China gloves companies are starting to lose money too. If China maintain their production capacity, they get themselves wiped out. China has to reduce overhead cost (production) and ASP improve. China gloves has to go through what Msia gloves went through. This is just economic sense.

KENANGA said China will keep selling cheap and maintain production to eliminate competition. I disagree. China does not have the backing of China demand to do that. China is oversupply.

US-CHina rivalry .... Msia advantage.

INTCO Medical Q1 result ... 238,198 million profit ... wah so good right?

So here are the numbers:
Operating Profit: 176,603
Interest Expense: -58,425
Tax Expense: -51,793
Net Profit: 66,385 🤔

Wah lau ... where did the 171,813 million profit come from? Hahaha
Who did their accounting? David Copperfield ka? 😂😂😂

China protect their own market (Second largest in the world) for themselves. So they have the second largest market (guaranteed) plus the world to sell. Their economy of scale is supported by their advantage of China's own market. Only foreign goods that can sell in China are BRANDED products.

Then Xi Jinping made a crazier move ... ways and means to remove production of foreign brands from Korea and Japan in China, thinking their labour advantage is for China to enjoy only. That's why Korean and Japanese FDI move out from China. Suddenly, Emperor Xi realised, many Chinese people start losing jobs due to Korean and Japanese closing shops.

If you think US, Europe, Japan and Korea will allow this unfair trade method, then think again.
EU proposing to add tariff on China EV. US is increasing tariff on variety of China products. The narrative now is against China. Tariff on China for unfair trade. There's more tariff to come for China. President from Germany and France visited Xi Jinping hoping to resolve with diplomatic means but I think it'll never work. Xi JInPing is full of himself.

WTO now will have to change their name to WTO-ExChina ... Why do you think Japan shares shoot up like crazy? Even Warren Buffet buys into Japan market. 😁😂🤣

Aiyoh... then why you cry father, cry mother here... Go buy China shares... Correct or not?

monetary

Annjoo Masteel LionInd. Are they experienced steel players? How are well are they buffered from China steel dumping? Even the most hi tech Tesla knock out by BYD. What magic do these rubber glove makers have? Next 2 months market will be like red carpet. I don't keep rubber glove in my safety box. I keep cash. G luck!

Competent? ..So you are competent ... Hahaha ....
You are only person I know that "makes money" and get upset with other people.
I seriously doubt you're "competent".
Normally people who make money are happy and silently looking to buy at the low.

monetary

When poor ppl get your money, u are doing charity. When rich ppl get your money, u are less COMPETENT.

Trump got convicted. But he can still run for president.
Democrats just hammer in their final nail to their coffin.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/can-trump-still-be-president-00160433

Take lor ... Like I said .. I always give money to beggars. It's ok. Why you so triggered? Hahahaha

monetary

What an interesting theory. Some one claims he doesn't sell ppl can't eat his money. From 3.8 to 3.2 your account value remains the same? I sold at 3.7x pocketed the profit my account also remains the same? Who took money away from your account? Who put money into my account? Ghost? Really square head. Lol! Besides, your so call analysis is worth nothing. Tariff in 2026 out of the equation. China stay in the equation. Period!

Actual fact is US will have difficulty reduce rate until they hit recession. Euro has gone through it (recession) and pulling inflation down. Now they can reduce rate. Just buy up staples that are recession proof. US GDP has higher chance coming out lower tonight.

KimSua

ECB will reduce interest rate. Europe base funds might come in in anticipation of Euro going down. However US CPE data might be prove to be resilient and make US jittery again. Next week will be better to decide.

Hahaha ...what is your problem? My money. I wanna give away... I give away la. Get a life man. ..😂

monetary

U have all the ingredients to b loser. 1. Stubborn 2. Blame your losses to broad market 3. Take facts given by media for granted 4. Only welcome ppl who have the same views as yours 5. Oppose facts that are different from your opinion

No worry, mate. I will continue eating your money until u turned into a beggar.

So who is going to Kossan AGM today?

Eat my money? .... hahaha... I usually let beggars "eat" my money. Go ahead.


monetary

I nvr ask to b right. I only know I eaten your money from 3.8 to 3.2.

YEah @5354_ I answered

Repost:

What happened to gloves in Msia will also happen in China. After China lockdown is over.
1) China gloves start making losses.
(Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958).)
2) China small gloves players got eliminated.
3) Big China gloves start rationalize (reduce) their production hence impairment losses.
4) They start selling at higher ASP.

As for the article from Edge https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712277
"Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research), which is neutral on the sector, shares the sentiment, commenting that Chinese players will start to gradually increase their presence in European and Asian markets to reduce US orders."

Are they saying China gloves are not already in European and Asia market now and the years before covid ? Of course they are. In order to compete is only to reduce price and gain market share in Europe and Asia. China cannot afford to do that. They are already making losses. China has no choice but REDUCE PRODUCTION because CHINA LOCKDOWN IS OVER.

Problem with analysts on China is ... China production is BIG. Look at this data from World Bank 2019
Malaysia Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 742,626,000 Kg
Thailand Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 109,800,000 Kg
China Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 73,646,800 Kg

China is only 9.9% of Malaysia production.
------
DATA on US import of gloves in 2019
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 World 410,269,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Malaysia 258,422,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Thailand 68,443,400 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 China 44,971,200 Kg

Malaysia covers 63% of US import. China only 10.9%.
------

COVID presented a different situation. US allow lower quality glove from China to satisfy the demand during COVID. But the OVERSUPPLY is coming mainly from Malaysia. So the ASP problem is OVERSUPPLY WORLDWIDE. But demand is slowly recovering (Kossan and Harta revenue is increasing) as oversupply depletes.

If there's concern about "flooding" the market with gloves, we should look at Topgloves instead. They are the biggest producer in the world. Not China. And TopGLove is losing money and their demand is far from their 2019 demand. They won't be flooding anytime soon.

My bet is on Kossan and Harta. Their export to US will be advantageous to them when tariff hit.

Ignore this kind of people like monetary .... People trade to make money, they trade to be "right". Ego based traders lose money they won't tell you one. 😂

YourQuirkyWays29

Ehhh, let's see. Not sure who are the crocs and why you are so angry for ppl wanting to hold.

Last time b4 2008/2009 .... when US market down, other markets can be up. It's like investors leaving one market and move to another. NOW all markets are following US market. THeir consequence affect other markets too fearing another Financial Crisis.

ARBDN still owns 137,392,700 shares. They sold 291,400 + 251,400 = 542,800..... 0.395% of the total shares.
It's the same with TS Lim Kuang Sia and other owners .... Like I said they are doing some profit taking like day traders. Which is ok. Value traders or FA can do the same too.

Just that TS Lim Kuang Sia is the CEO of the company. Show some confidence of the company la. He represents the company. Don't be a pariah CEO. THis kind of profit also want to take when he is already a billionaire. 🙄

Sometimes FA hold bcoz they are long term. Just bcoz they are long doesn't mean they didn't prone a bit to take profit. IT all depends on how many share you hold and risk management. Market is jittery bcoz US is already at all time high. IS it gonna crash or just 5% correction ... nobody knows.


Lukey_Greek

When the price is right, even owner of the company & ABRDN will also dispose their shares. Good luck long term investor. Long way to learn on understanding this wave fr FA perspective.

Better to pick up Friday. Not too late and safer.

KimSua

Can start to pick the bottom, tmrow or better Friday

Aiyah ... whole US, Europe and Asia market drop bcoz of US sentiment la. Nothing to do with any fundamental to any companies in Msia or Asia. All waiting for US Q1 GDP and PCE results. Expectation of US recession.

Market will drop some more tomorrow. Until results are out.

What happened to gloves in Msia will also happen in China. After China lockdown is over.
1) China gloves start making losses.
(Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958).)
2) China small gloves players got eliminated.
3) Big China gloves start rationalize (reduce) their production hence impairment losses.
4) They start selling at higher ASP.

As for the article from Edge https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712277
"Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research), which is neutral on the sector, shares the sentiment, commenting that Chinese players will start to gradually increase their presence in European and Asian markets to reduce US orders."

Are they saying China gloves are not already in European and Asia market now and the years before covid ? Of course they are. In order to compete is only to reduce price and gain market share in Europe and Asia. China cannot afford to do that. They are already making losses. China has no choice but REDUCE PRODUCTION because CHINA LOCKDOWN IS OVER.

Problem with analysts on China is ... China production is BIG. Look at this data from World Bank 2019
Malaysia Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 742,626,000 Kg
Thailand Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 109,800,000 Kg
China Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 73,646,800 Kg

China is only 9.9% of Malaysia production.
------
DATA on US import of gloves in 2019
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 World 410,269,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Malaysia 258,422,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Thailand 68,443,400 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 China 44,971,200 Kg

Malaysia covers 63% of US import. China only 10.9%.
------

COVID presented a different situation. US allow lower quality glove from China to satisfy the demand during COVID. But the OVERSUPPLY is coming mainly from Malaysia. So the ASP problem is OVERSUPPLY WORLDWIDE. But demand is slowly recovering (Kossan and Harta revenue is increasing) as oversupply depletes.

If there's concern about "flooding" the market with gloves, we should look at Topgloves instead. They are the biggest producer in the world. Not China. And TopGLove is losing money and their demand is far from their 2019 demand. They won't be flooding anytime soon.

My bet is on Kossan and Harta. Their export to US will be advantageous to them when tariff hit.

What happened to gloves in Msia will also happen in China. After China lockdown is over.
1) China gloves start making losses.
(Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958).)
2) China small gloves players got eliminated.
3) Big China gloves start rationalize (reduce) their production hence impairment losses.
4) They start selling at higher ASP.

As for the article from Edge https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712277
"Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research), which is neutral on the sector, shares the sentiment, commenting that Chinese players will start to gradually increase their presence in European and Asian markets to reduce US orders."

Are they saying China gloves are not already in European and Asia market now and the years before covid ? Of course they are. In order to compete is only to reduce price and gain market share in Europe and Asia. China cannot afford to do that. They are already making losses. China has no choice but REDUCE PRODUCTION because CHINA LOCKDOWN IS OVER.

Problem with analysts on China is ... China production is BIG. Look at this data from World Bank 2019
Malaysia Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 742,626,000 Kg
Thailand Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 109,800,000 Kg
China Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 73,646,800 Kg

China is only 9.9% of Malaysia production.
------
DATA on US import of gloves in 2019
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 World 410,269,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Malaysia 258,422,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Thailand 68,443,400 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 China 44,971,200 Kg

Malaysia covers 63% of US import. China only 10.9%.
------

COVID presented a different situation. US allow lower quality glove from China to satisfy the demand during COVID. But the OVERSUPPLY is coming mainly from Malaysia. So the ASP problem is OVERSUPPLY WORLDWIDE. But demand is slowly recovering (Kossan and Harta revenue is increasing) as oversupply depletes.

If there's concern about "flooding" the market with gloves, we should look at Topgloves instead. They are the biggest producer in the world. Not China. And TopGLove is losing money and their demand is far from their 2019 demand. They won't be flooding anytime soon.

My bet is on Kossan and Harta. Their export to US will be advantageous to them when tariff hit.

ABRDN bought when EPF was selling. I think their average price is below Rm1.50. So to take profit is normal.

ChandranG

ABRDN started to dispose the shares continuously ...

2 challenging factors still looms in gloves ... ASP and demand. And this directly affects PBT.
I see one factor is improving and that is DEMAND (Revenue increase for Kossan and Harta). China can't keep undercutting price. It affects their PBT too. China's lockdown is over. China lost their scale of production advantage by selling cheap. Their China demand has drastically dropped. Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958). They have to increase price in 2024. ASP will improve.

Biggest bomb on China for ASP is China-US rivalry. Now just rely on entry-port ban by US on China's gloves. IF Trump wins the tariff effect will be even greater than the 2026 tariff increase.

China use coal. Msia use nat gas. Both energy sources are going up in tandem. So not much difference there. Hell, if US wants to penalize China on ESG basis for using coal ... total ban on China's gloves. But we know that cannot happen la.

2 challenging factors still looms in gloves ... ASP and demand. And this directly affects PBT.
I see one factor is improving and that is DEMAND (Revenue increase for Kossan and Harta). China can't keep undercutting price. It affects their PBT too. China's lockdown is over. China lost their scale of production advantage by selling cheap. Their China demand has drastically dropped. Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958). They have to increase price in 2024. ASP will improve.

Biggest bomb on China for ASP is China-US rivalry. Now just rely on entry-port ban by US on China's gloves. IF Trump wins the tariff effect will be even greater than the 2026 tariff increase.

China use coal. Msia use nat gas. Both energy sources are going up in tandem. So not much difference there. Hell, if US wants to penalize China on ESG basis for using coal ... total ban on China's gloves. But we know that cannot happen la.

2 challenging factors still looms in gloves ... ASP and demand. And this directly affects PBT.
I see one factor is improving and that is DEMAND (Revenue increase for Kossan and Harta). China can't keep undercutting price. It affects their PBT too. China's lockdown is over. China lost their scale of production advantage by selling cheap. Their China demand has drastically dropped. Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958). They have to increase price in 2024. ASP will improve.

Biggest bomb on China for ASP is China-US rivalry. Now just rely on entry-port ban by US on China's gloves. IF Trump wins the tariff effect will be even greater than the 2026 tariff increase.

China use coal. Msia use nat gas. Both energy sources are going up in tandem. So not much difference there. Hell, if US wants to penalize China on ESG basis for using coal ... total ban on China's gloves. But we know that cannot happen la.

So people who said "Don’t blame tax. Just look at PBT" are just short term investors. I'm in for the long haul.

Yeah ... true. But they still in profit unlike Harta, PBT is a loss. And Harta has more outstanding shares than Kossan. My argument has always been Kossan shld be more or same with Harta price. So either Kossan go up or Harta comes down to meet Kossan's price.

Analyze Kossan Q1 result. Profit could had been higher if it wasn't bcoz of TAX month. They paid a big chunk in tax. Hopefully Q2 would be better.

Supermax is wasting money for low margin products.

Market sentiment bad ... see how long this last. Dow Jones and S&P will dictate that.

I'll tell you on Thursday. 😂😂😂

Epseps

@chipee well said. Just want to know Thurs mkt open price will up ?? Lol

Hahahaha .....

NatsukoMishima

Taimeili , u should listen to me to vstecs , ranhill , swift haulage , dnex , iwcity !

Remember in 2022. Kossan falls lowest to Rm0.98 while holding cash per share of Rm0.95. THat's 96.9% cash.
Meaning Rm0.03 constitutes the rest of the assets = plants, equipment, lands, business network, corporate structure etc. Dirt cheap.

And why prices can fall so low? Because Profit is King mentality. Traders look at price action and sell. To me that's gambling and totally ignore the fundamentals.

And why price can go up so high now? These upward trends:
> Demand gets higher. Revenue and profit get higher. (Proven)
> US-China rivalry. (Proven)
> Cost of production via automation and they have the cash to do it. Net profit higher (in progress)

I also forsee this regulative situation. Carbon credit. Kossan needs the cash to reduce their carbon footprint by investing in solar panels etc. Using natural gas instead of LPG. Government may require corporations especially public listed companies to buy carbon credit. I see Kossan has been doing that well.

I'm riding the long term trend. You can day trade but sometimes you can miss the boat. To each is own.

I rather have low ROI and ROE than have less cash. ROI ROE are just math. Cash is cash.

We see how market react on Thurs. Tmr is Wesak Day. Market close.

I usually look at comparison to previous quarter to see the immediate business situation. Comparing yoy quarter is more on seasonality.

From Report:
Comparison of Current Quarter (“1Q24”) with immediate Preceding Quarter (“4Q23”)
For 1Q24, the Group’s revenue was recorded at RM451.63 million as compared with 4Q23 of RM400.15
million, the increase mainly from Gloves and TRP divisions. Profit before taxation (PBT) was RM40.98 million
in 1Q24 compared with RM3.43 million in 4Q23 (inclusive of a one-off impairment loss of plant and machinery
amounted to RM35.38 million).

The Gloves division’s revenue increased by 15.19% to RM379.63 million in 1Q24 from RM329.58 million in
4Q23 due to higher quantity sold. PBT of RM26.57 million was recorded as compared with LBT of RM9.30
million in 4Q23 (inclusive of a one-off impairment loss of plant and machinery amounted to RM35.38 million).

The TRPs division’s revenue increased by 10.14% to RM48.95 million in 1Q24 as compared with RM44.44
million in 4Q23 due to higher delivery of products in 1Q24. PBT recorded at RM8.92 million in 1Q24 as
compared with RM9.99 million in 4Q23.

The Clean-Room division’s revenue was recorded at RM23.05 million in 1Q24 as compared with RM26.13
million in 4Q23 due to lower deliveries. PBT recorded at RM2.42 million in 1Q24 compared with RM2.84
million in 4Q23 was in tandem with the lower revenue.

Qtr Report is out.... sigh ... a bit disappointing but profitable. Revenue up 14%.

@Aero1 Was that before covid. I think US and Euro loosen their regulation for covid. But now they slowly filter out gloves that don't meet their standards. Especially glove thickness (quality). US big buyers will like to buy from China at lower cost. But if their shipments keep getting block, this will deter them and order from Msia instead. THen Msia gloves can pass through the costs. These US big buyer need some "re-education" by US port-entry. LoL

Harta financial reports higher ASP and higher demand/revenue. Their diminished profit is due to cost to ramp up NGC Sepang operation. Basically big operation moving from Bestari Jaya to Sepang. Hopefully Kossan has no such operation. Just in situ improvement to operations. And no more impairment losses.

@Aero1 You should read the financial report instead of making assumptions.
Higher ASP and cost to ramp up NGC Sepang operation. Basically big operation moving from Bestari Jaya to Sepang. And lets not forget if Harta sell the industrial land/factory in Bestari Jaya, that could balance of the previous impairment losses.

Aero1
because not able to pass through higher cost now

Whoever release financial report first becomes the bell weather for the rest. 😁

Harta saw an increase in revenue from previous quarter 27.5%. I hope Kossan can be the same. And increase in net profit too.

And Harta is in the black. Their financial end is 31 MArch... so it will include previous quarter losses. But it's improving.