i will be setting up the private group chat soon

Johnmasino, perhaps the actual approved amount by vietnam government is damn low figure and JHDP actually borrowed 200% from the chinese bankers.


---------------------------------------------
you can put whatever figure as power plant cost even USD1000 Trillion
but Vietnam will only sign an "approved amount" for sub-critical plant costs
and IRR is only calculated on approved sub-critical plant amount which is damn much cheaper than super-critical.
After minusing aseng amount, I will guess that the approved amount must be hell of a damn low figure.

all calculations in articles are wild speculation only.

dun write articles if you have no experience.
I have raised this point 1,000 times already.

Both Vinh Tan 1 and JHDP borrowed the same amount of loan from the same majority chinese bankers.

Both projects secured USD1.4 billion in borrowings. The power plants are non-movable so as good as no securities in the eyes of the chinese bankers. If the power plants do not have similar earnings capability, will the bankers lend the same amount of loan ? That is common sense.

johnmasino, when you want to buy cheap, you don't talk about ALP buying at 1.40.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-17-story-h1507086165-Jaks_Resources_A_Private_Discussion_Room.jsp

Time will tell

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-17-story-h1507086165-Jaks_Resources_A_Private_Discussion_Room.jsp

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qq44 Pity those conned by DK66 sweet mouth.
18/05/2020 11:26 AM

Please press like or comment on article so that I won't miss you.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-17-story-h1507086165-Jaks_Resources_A_Private_Discussion_Room.jsp
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Headshot622 Hi DK66, pls include me, thanks you very much
18/05/2020 11:14 AM

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-17-story-h1507086165-Jaks_Resources_A_Private_Discussion_Room.jsp

please indicate in the article's comment so that i wont miss it
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Sunshine88 Sifu DK66 count me in.
Tq

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-17-story-h1507086165-Jaks_Resources_A_Private_Discussion_Room.jsp

Aseng, thank you

Aseng, I hope you did not miss this latest article

Jaks Resources - Same PPA Pricing for JHDP and Vinh Tan 1
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-16-story-h1507059288-Jaks_Resources_Pricing_Mechanism_of_Power_Purchase_Agreement.jsp

Ehome009 should be applauded for his courage in standing up to disagree with PBB. He provided detail explanation for his cause but, to some, that cannot beat the one liner of the PBB. Maybe we should review the history of PBB's target price on Jaks

23 Nov 2017 - 1.50
5 Feb 2018 - 1.75
15 Mar 2018 - 1.60
7 June 2018 - 1.30
29 August 2018 - 1.10
30 Nov 2018 - 0.65
1 mar 2019 - 0.65
15 May 2019 - 0.75
22 August 2019 - 0.75
26 Nov 2019 - 1.00
28 Feb 2020 - 1.13

From as high as 1.75 to 0.65 in 12 months when Jaks fell from 1.84 to 0.405. I wonder if the TP follows the price fluctuation ? If so, it is very likely that PBB will upgrade its TP when Jaks' share price moves higher.

Some have so much faith in the CFO yet he does not believe the investment figure provided by him. A different vietnam approved investment amount ??? Bankers lend 75% base on a fake investment figure ??? Believe it or not ??? What a twist !

That is all for me for today.

Please ask if you have any sincere question for me.

elbrutus, you are right, the best way to refute or proof of different views is to present it systematically in an article so that it will remain on the headline of Jaks forum forever. Everyone will see it. There is no need to repeat the same arguments over and over again.

When you reject someone's TP, shouldn't you provide your own TP to be credible?

elbrutus and johnmasino, There are people who are in constant denial.

Both projects secured USD1.4 billion in borrowings. The power plants are non-movable so as good as no securities in the eyes of the chinese bankers. If the power plants do not have similar earnings capability, will the bankers lend the same amount of loan ? That is common sense.

johnmasino, you are welcome and thank you.

johnmasino, The CFO did say during the 2019 AGM that the JHDP will contribute 80-100m to Jaks but it also said "more than 100m" during the 2018 AGM. He did not provide further explanation. I think he could be taking Mong Duong II's distribution as a guide but that is just my opinion.

Jaks Resources - Same PPA Pricing for JHDP and Vinh Tan 1

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-16-story-h1507059288-Jaks_Resources_Pricing_Mechanism_of_Power_Purchase_Agreement.jsp

Hope this article can convince everyone that Vinh Tan 1 is the most reliable profit guidance for JHDP

Defective power plants will cause a lot more down time and thus less capacity and energy payment.

This article proves that all Vietnam IPP BOT have roughly the same PPA payments from EVN except that they must keep the power plants in good running order in order to achieve full capacity payments.

In any case, the extra 10% will be EPS accretive as it is acquired at about 4x PE.

Probability, thanks for your thoughts.

Whether or not Jaks would need to raise fund for the extra 10% depends on the timing. It has 3 years after COD to do it.

Probability, you are welcome. Do you think this article established a strong link between the PPA payments of JHDP and Vinh Tan 1 ?

Probability, I agree with you. Icon8888 should be using the Ebitda as FCF. Instead, he used a net of interest figure in his IRR calculation. I m sorry, I did not read his article in detail. I thought he was using Ebitda.

You should have pointed it out to me the way you did just now and we wouldn't be having all the arguments. In any case, the fault is mine. I apologise to you.

Probability, Icon8888 is using EBITDA as cash flow in its IRR calculation. This effectively included the interest cost in his IRR calculation. This is in line with my calculation here.

Oh dear, so you and I actual agreed on the same method of calculation ?? Let me take another look at icon8888 article.

Probability, I must have misunderstood you completely. When I said the FCF must have included the interest cost. This is what i meant here. Is this what you meant also when you said interest cost must be excluded ??

---------------
probability @DK66, sorry i have not been following your discussion recently in i3 completely..

The above earnings derivation with project IRR seems in line with what i had estimated excluding interest like i had expressed earlier. So, have you changed your opinion on the Interest cost inclusion for Project IRR?

probability, is this convincing for you ?

But I m still waiting for his confirmation on the net profit calculation using equity IRR.

I quoted Mr Sslee's article on the equity IRR free cash flow.

elbrutus, thanks for your "Like"

Almost finished my article

Dear Sslee,

Based on the following calculation, what would be the net profit to Jaks ?

-----------------------------
Equity USD1870 X 0.25 = USD 467.5 million

ZERO = - 467.5 + A1/(1+0.12) +A2/(1+0.12)^2+……………till A25/(1+0.12)^25

USD 467.5= 7.8431A thus A= USD 59.606 million

Equity payback period of 467.5/59.606= 7.8 years

30% to JAKS = USD 59.606 x 0.3 = USD 17.882

Base on USD: MYR of 4.34: JAKS share of FCF RM 17.882 x 4.34= RM 77.61 million.

I m writing another article to further consolidate my believe that Vinh Tan 1 provides the most reliable relative valuation for JHDP. Please wait.

Johnmasino, PBB did not mention 250m right issue at all.

Dear ALL, you must learn to ask for proof.

Pubilc Investment Bank report @ 28/2/2020

Vietnam EPC at 93% Completion
JAKS Resources’ (JAKS) 4QFY19 net profit, as expected, slowed down to
RM17.8m (NM YoY, -28.7% QoQ) which was within our expectation but below
consensus. In FY19, Group net profit came in at RM108.6m (>100% YoY) which
constituted 96% and 90% of our and consensus full year estimates. The
overall completion for its power plant in Vietnam is said to be at 93%, from 82%
a quarter ago. We understand that the completion of its first unit which was
initially thought to be by end-2019 is now postponed due to Covid-19. The
commercial operation date (COD) is now targeted for 3QFY20, from 1HFY20
earlier. As such, we revise our FY20/FY21earnings downwards by -41%/-29%.
We also change our valuation method from SOTP to RNAV as JAKS’ value is
now mainly driven by its power plant, versus various business units previously.
Maintain Neutral, with TP increased to RM1.13, from RM1.00 previously
(pegged at 35% discount to RNAV) on lower completion risks of its power plant.
All told, we are still wary over the various dilutive equity fund raisings done so
far to meet its liquidity demands and the poor execution especially on its
property business.

§ Power plant at 93% completion. EPC contract revenue and net profit, as
expected, continued to slow down with the Group recognizing RM166.9m
revenue and RM32.9m net profit in Q4FY19. For FY19. The Group
recognized RM1.1bn (+62.3% YoY) and RM108.6m (+607.6% YoY) from
the EPC contract. It still has RM338m remaining to be billed with the power
plant expected to be completed by 2020.

§ Outstanding orderbook at RM618.6m. In the absence of new jobs, the
Group’s outstanding orderbook dropped from RM847m to RM618.6m in
4QFY19. This is in line with the Group’s strategy to re-focus its resources
on the Vietnam power plant project.

§ Property LAD to end in FY20. Property losses could drag longer but we
understand that Management is still working to complete the Star Tower
and the remaining 3 blocks by 1H2020. Unbilled sales as at 4QFY19 stood
at RM130m. Occupancy at the Evolve Concept Mall dropped to 72% from
85% with committed tenants at 86%.

johnmasino, Sslee's article merely trying to show the different effect of Project IRR and Equity IRR on free cash flow with certain assumptions.

OTB indicated that IRR should be 15% based on his confirmation with chinese engineer that JHDP is able to clock 7238 utilisation hours ( same as Vinh Tan 1).

As CEO has indicated that the 12% IRR is based on 6500 hours ( also cited in the government circular), therefore, he said IRR should be 15% as JHDP will have 7238 utilisation hours. It was also reported in the edge weekly that the project IRR is more than 15%.

I agree with OTB's observation.

-------------------------------------------
johnmasino DK66:- sslee wrote an article about JAKS 12% IRR. What are your personal thoughts? Thanks!
15/05/2020 5:25 PM

johnmasino DK66:- OTB also mentioned that the IRR should actually be 15% instead of 12% as per his comment to icon888 below. Any thoughts on this? Thanks.


Quote:-
OTB Dear Icon8888,
During the planning stage, the utilization hours used for planning purpose was 6,500.
After the plant is completed, the correct utilization hours used should be 7,238 (same as Vinh Tan 1 power plant). Hence IRR should be 15% instead of 12%.
7,238 utilization hours is confirmed by the management of Jaks to me after checking with CPECC engineers.
Please take note.
Thank you.
15/05/2020 5:34 PM

Dear Sslee,

I m glad that you agreed with me

------------------
Sslee Dear Aseng,
The Value to JAkS by PBB Analyst report of RM 329 million or 0.48 per share is definitely wrong.
Wait for their next report upgrade.
15/05/2020 9:15 AM

我会的。只是你们有不了解的必须问，不然我无法帮忙。谢谢。
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leafwinner 多谢Shan Kee tiow 和 dk66大师无私的分享。有大师在这里就不怕菜鸟们被人误导。所以别放弃，请继续在这里分享

Thank you for your explanation. It is good explanation.
--------------
Shan Kee Tiow 其实DCF这部分计算的是公司CF就是现金流不是profit。
很简单，你买车头期加贷款100k（RM8.04b），头期20k（RM2b)，分期付款5年还清80k（RM6b/还贷n期），但是车可以用10年，每年折旧10k，但是为什么不以分期付款来计算费用，原因就是因为车可以用10年，总不能前5年供完车而后五年就没折旧费用，相对地前5年盈利都被折旧盖过了，而后5年才大赚钱，你们会这么计算盈利吗？你做运输的，一年现金收入50k，扣除车油费等费用车贷利息等大概15k，剩35k（RM1.02b)，但是要记得扣除10k（321.6m）折旧，盈利是25k（698.4m），现金收入扣除15k剩35k，但是10k折旧是无形费用（不是贷款），所以现金收入35k（25k盈利+10k折旧）。最后再从35k中要还的车贷拿去还（只是这笔帐不是营业计算，而是融资计算），由于这关于到cash flow，所以大家容易困乱。

Dear ALL,

I have been spending too much time arguing and defending Jaks. I was accused of ulterior motive. I can not afford to spend my time defending blindly because I do not know what you do not know. I regret to inform that you will not hear from me unless you ask sincerely. You owe yourself a duty to ask if you do not know. I m here for you.

I hope my absence will help to restore peace in Jaks' forum. Good bye and good luck.

Thank you.

Forgot to say thank you.

Thank you and good night
-----------
paktua73 take a rest dk66 paktua respect your hard work..
until late night still repy all feedback..
rest a bit..

tut tut
true fa sifu dk66..
willing to sacrifice his freedom..
for other sake..
14/05/2020 10:33 PM

Aseng and all, good night

Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 spent USD1.75b and JHDP spent USD1.87b but only generate less than half the profit. Resonable ?

Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 made 652m. 30% is 196m. You think Jaks can be so far off ?

I believe Sslee meant it to be total net profit. Better confirm with him
------------
Aseng DK66,

am I right to say ,

RM 77.61 million is actual net profit calculated from equity
NOT the total net profit of the business operation
14/05/2020 10:41 PM

qqq3, RM1b in free cash flow, not profit. Please get it right

Thank you
-----------------
hng33 I believe pbb analyst own feedback is utmost important instead of make so many assumption here. Hope to get reply soon, stay tune,

Aseng, anymore question ?