You layman rationale is most valuable !

------------------------
Aseng where got such a thing ?

loan also can generate profit mah....

I understand their stupid calculation now

thank you

Under equity IRR, borrowings are assumed to only generate sufficient to cover interest costs.

Normally, the equity IRR are very high, like 30%, to compensate the risk on debt capital. 12% is not reasonable.

hng33, thank you for your effort
--------------
hng33 Dear DK66

I alrdy forward two article written by you and Ehome009 to seek pbb analyst comment and feedback.
14/05/2020 10:26 PM

Meaning, your borrowing and interest costs will be paid but only your own capital is used to calculate the profit return.

Aseng, depending on how you look at it. In simple language, Yes , you are right
--------------
how about the 75% borrowing ?

doesn't generate any profit at all ?

Aseng, I was just about to sign off. Any more question ?

Aseng, if no borrowing, then Equity and project IRRs are the same

Dear ALL,

I have spent too much time on Jaks' forum. I need to take a rest. Leave your questions and I will come back to you later.

Thank you

Dear ALL,

I have spent too much time on Jaks' forum. I need to take a rest. Leave your questions and I will come back to you later.

Thank you

Ehome009, anyone can agree or disagree with any IB reports by pointing out their mistakes. I once criticized a report by PBB and Sslee sought clarification and they came back politely with explanation. Do you think PBB will sue anyone for disagreeing their reports ?!

I m not hostile
I don't think the world is fighting me, only a very few.
---------------
i3lurker dk66

you are very hostile
no one is threatening you.
You think the whole world wants to fight you.

Ehome009, a widely used tactic. You can ask OTB. He was threatened a few times.

I wrote the article, sue me

leafwinner, you are welcome

elbrutus bro, are you scared ?

I have included the following brilliant explanation by Shan Kee Tiow into my article.

Thank you Shan Kee Tiow. You helped a lot

Shan Kee Tiow
不要吐血，快乐一天也算赚到！我告诉你，其实很多人自以为是，但是他们都不知道自己像个傻瓜一样在炫耀什么。因为他们不清楚jaks用的12%就是IRR rate，而PBB为什么用rate为12%是因为这12%就是IRR rate，也就是内部回酬旅。当这IRR rate用在discounted cash flow method（DCF），这12%就是贴现率。什么是贴现率？贴现率就是用利率的方式把未来钱计算成现在的价值。

Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.

Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the attractiveness of a project or investment. If the IRR of a new project exceeds a company’s required rate of return, that project is desirable. If IRR falls below the required rate of return, the project should be rejected.

所以需要谢谢他们提到的NPV。CF/（1+r)^n就是正在贴现方程式，但是有人搞不明白我们在算什么。JAKS的总投资是8.04b，以12%的IRR rate来计算。为什么Ehome009要找的是free cash flow（FCF）？原因很简单，8.04b就是NPV，12%的IRR rate就是计算25年里每年进账多少FCF经过以12%的贴现率后才能与8.04b相等。

找到的答案是每年进账1020m，再以12%的discounted rate（贴现率）计算，你就会找回8.04b的NPV，只有每年进账1020m才能证明投资hai duong IPP是值得的，因为保值。PBB给的TP是什么？现在NPV？现在投入8b，结果说NPV是1b，我不知道贷出6b的三家银行有什么感想。target price是对未来股票会涨到什么价位而给出的一个预期价，说target price是npv（现金价值），倒不如叫那位分析员不要写报告好吗？因为所有股价都是NPV。target price就是要预期未来，发电厂正要完成，就已经宣布要破产剩10亿。说多了都是累！我这篇文章不是写给喷子看的，而是写给有兴趣了解jaks然后实事求是的人看的。谢谢

There are all very similar. Only that we don't have the results for Mong Duong II.
---------------
Investee Hey DK66, out of curiosity. Why Vinh Tan 1 is a better comparable as compared to Mong Duong 2? Or actually they are pretty similar?
14/05/2020 3:33 PM

qqq3, stop pretending to be the good guy. You are already very well known.

qqq3, stop pretending to be the good guy. You are already very well known.

DK66 Shan Kee Tiow, 我真的希望每个人都有您这样的了解。如此我便不必一直为JAKS辩护。
---------------------------
Shan Kee Tiow DK66
不要吐血，快乐一天也算赚到！我告诉你，其实很多人自以为是，但是他们都不知道自己像个傻瓜一样在炫耀什么。因为他们不清楚jaks用的12%就是IRR rate，而PBB为什么用rate为12%是因为这12%就是IRR rate，也就是内部回酬旅。当这IRR rate用在discounted cash flow method（DCF），这12%就是贴现率。什么是贴现率？贴现率就是用利率的方式把未来钱计算成现在的价值。

Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.

Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the attractiveness of a project or investment. If the IRR of a new project exceeds a company’s required rate of return, that project is desirable. If IRR falls below the required rate of return, the project should be rejected.

所以需要谢谢他们提到的NPV。CF/（1+r)^n就是正在贴现方程式，但是有人搞不明白我们在算什么。JAKS的总投资是8.04b，以12%的IRR rate来计算。为什么Ehome009要找的是free cash flow（FCF）？原因很简单，8.04b就是NPV，12%的IRR rate就是计算25年里每年进账多少FCF经过以12%的贴现率后才能与8.04b相等。

找到的答案是每年进账1020m，再以12%的discounted rate（贴现率）计算，你就会找回8.04b的NPV，只有每年进账1020m才能证明投资hai duong IPP是值得的，因为保值。PBB给的TP是什么？现在NPV？现在投入8b，结果说NPV是1b，我不知道贷出6b的三家银行有什么感想。target price是对未来股票会涨到什么价位而给出的一个预期价，说target price是npv（现金价值），倒不如叫那位分析员不要写报告好吗？因为所有股价都是NPV。target price就是要预期未来，发电厂正要完成，就已经宣布要破产剩10亿。说多了都是累！我这篇文章不是写给喷子看的，而是写给有兴趣了解jaks然后实事求是的人看的。谢谢
14/05/2020 9:17 PM

DK66 Shan Kee Tiow, 我真的希望每个人都有您这样的了解。如此我便不必一直为JAKS辩护。
---------------------------
Shan Kee Tiow DK66
不要吐血，快乐一天也算赚到！我告诉你，其实很多人自以为是，但是他们都不知道自己像个傻瓜一样在炫耀什么。因为他们不清楚jaks用的12%就是IRR rate，而PBB为什么用rate为12%是因为这12%就是IRR rate，也就是内部回酬旅。当这IRR rate用在discounted cash flow method（DCF），这12%就是贴现率。什么是贴现率？贴现率就是用利率的方式把未来钱计算成现在的价值。

Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.

Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the attractiveness of a project or investment. If the IRR of a new project exceeds a company’s required rate of return, that project is desirable. If IRR falls below the required rate of return, the project should be rejected.

所以需要谢谢他们提到的NPV。CF/（1+r)^n就是正在贴现方程式，但是有人搞不明白我们在算什么。JAKS的总投资是8.04b，以12%的IRR rate来计算。为什么Ehome009要找的是free cash flow（FCF）？原因很简单，8.04b就是NPV，12%的IRR rate就是计算25年里每年进账多少FCF经过以12%的贴现率后才能与8.04b相等。

找到的答案是每年进账1020m，再以12%的discounted rate（贴现率）计算，你就会找回8.04b的NPV，只有每年进账1020m才能证明投资hai duong IPP是值得的，因为保值。PBB给的TP是什么？现在NPV？现在投入8b，结果说NPV是1b，我不知道贷出6b的三家银行有什么感想。target price是对未来股票会涨到什么价位而给出的一个预期价，说target price是npv（现金价值），倒不如叫那位分析员不要写报告好吗？因为所有股价都是NPV。target price就是要预期未来，发电厂正要完成，就已经宣布要破产剩10亿。说多了都是累！我这篇文章不是写给喷子看的，而是写给有兴趣了解jaks然后实事求是的人看的。谢谢
14/05/2020 9:17 PM

Shan Kee Tiow, 我真的希望每个人都有您这样的了解。如此我便不必一直为JAKS辩护。
---------------------------
Shan Kee Tiow DK66
不要吐血，快乐一天也算赚到！我告诉你，其实很多人自以为是，但是他们都不知道自己像个傻瓜一样在炫耀什么。因为他们不清楚jaks用的12%就是IRR rate，而PBB为什么用rate为12%是因为这12%就是IRR rate，也就是内部回酬旅。当这IRR rate用在discounted cash flow method（DCF），这12%就是贴现率。什么是贴现率？贴现率就是用利率的方式把未来钱计算成现在的价值。

Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.

Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the attractiveness of a project or investment. If the IRR of a new project exceeds a company’s required rate of return, that project is desirable. If IRR falls below the required rate of return, the project should be rejected.

所以需要谢谢他们提到的NPV。CF/（1+r)^n就是正在贴现方程式，但是有人搞不明白我们在算什么。JAKS的总投资是8.04b，以12%的IRR rate来计算。为什么Ehome009要找的是free cash flow（FCF）？原因很简单，8.04b就是NPV，12%的IRR rate就是计算25年里每年进账多少FCF经过以12%的贴现率后才能与8.04b相等。

找到的答案是每年进账1020m，再以12%的discounted rate（贴现率）计算，你就会找回8.04b的NPV，只有每年进账1020m才能证明投资hai duong IPP是值得的，因为保值。PBB给的TP是什么？现在NPV？现在投入8b，结果说NPV是1b，我不知道贷出6b的三家银行有什么感想。target price是对未来股票会涨到什么价位而给出的一个预期价，说target price是npv（现金价值），倒不如叫那位分析员不要写报告好吗？因为所有股价都是NPV。target price就是要预期未来，发电厂正要完成，就已经宣布要破产剩10亿。说多了都是累！我这篇文章不是写给喷子看的，而是写给有兴趣了解jaks然后实事求是的人看的。谢谢

why said I lose money ? you don't know my cost ?

qqq3. I shut my mouth also made you angry??

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 14, 2020 12:20 AM | Report Abuse

Dear All,

From now on, I will keep posting this remark to remind you that you may seek my comment if you wish to clarify what you read in this forum no matter how stupid they are. I will not be responding to comments here unless requested by sincere readers.

I trust most readers here are able to differentiate for themselves comments that are reliable from those that are ridiculous. If you are not sure, ask.

Thank you.

P/S Aseng may help to post this remark frequently. TQ
14/05/2020 8:28 PM

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 14, 2020 12:20 AM | Report Abuse

Dear All,

From now on, I will keep posting this remark to remind you that you may seek my comment if you wish to clarify what you read in this forum no matter how stupid they are. I will not be responding to comments here unless requested by sincere readers.

I trust most readers here are able to differentiate for themselves comments that are reliable from those that are ridiculous. If you are not sure, ask.

Thank you.

P/S Aseng may help to post this remark frequently. TQ
14/05/2020 8:28 PM

I won't say anything now . See whether they will still attack me to discredit me

So you are on your own. I will only answer if you ask sincerely

The fear mongers are very good much better than you thought.

I m tired of saying the same things over and over again

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 14, 2020 12:20 AM | Report Abuse

Dear All,

From now on, I will keep posting this remark to remind you that you may seek my comment if you wish to clarify what you read in this forum no matter how stupid they are. I will not be responding to comments here unless requested by sincere readers.

I trust most readers here are able to differentiate for themselves comments that are reliable from those that are ridiculous. If you are not sure, ask.

Thank you.

P/S Aseng may help to post this remark frequently. TQ

Bank borrowing by JHDP is on non recourse basis upon operation. It means the bankers can only depends on the income from the power plant for installment payment. The bankers cannot go after Jaks if the power plant cannot pay.

Investee, You have to take risk into account.

Think of it this way, when you invest USD1.87b on a project, whether you use borrowing or not your total risk is USD1.87b. If you can't complete the power plant, you lost USD1.87b, not 468m.

In the 25 years of operation. Your capacity payment is only guaranteed if you make the capacity available. If for any reason your power plant does operate because of your fault (not Vietnam EVN's fault), there is no capacity payment, and your total loss will be the whole sum not just the equity portion. Therefore, you think you will base your projection on 468m and not 1.87b ?

In any case, Vinh Tan 1 would not have achieved its results had its IRR is equity based.

----------------
Investee If you invest 1.87b equity, I will pay u 12% on 1.87b. If you invest 468m equity, I will ensure fixed capacity charge = principal repayment + interest + 12% on 468m.

This way, you will have IRR 12% on equity and payback period of 8 years to recover 468m invested equity.

You cannot use 12% on 1.87b and assume that's the FCF because capacity charge already take care of your principal repayment and interest. Capacity charge - principal repayment - interest will give you 12% IRR on equity.

Aside to PBB report, the 82m is a NPV, i.e. PV of future FCF (however derived by PBB) minus invested equity capital. It's not how much it's worth, i.e. PV of future FCF. Can understand ah?

qqq3, don't invent NPV. It is not the way. Don't guess your way thru to get a logical answer. NPV works on the future cash flow and discounts them to present value. simple. Don't make it sounds complicated.

I should drop this subject on NPV, a simple method. Anyone else not sure please ask.

Aseng, I m getting lazy so I let EXCEL does the calculations for me. Very simple, very fast and no mistake. Otherwise, I could score 101. haha

I suppose you don't know why
------------
qqq33333333 sted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 5:18 PM | Report Abuse

qqq3, Readers here are not interested in theory. Tell me do you think JHDP can make RM652m like Vinh Tan 1 ?

===========

a straight forward answer is No..........
14/05/2020 5:27 PM

qqq3, public bank told you he calculated NPV this way ? Don't ruin its name. Nobody calculate NPV this way. PBB said FCFE and you read it as NPV.

----------------------
qqq33333333

NPV in this case takes into account every things, including the project costs, loan repayments.........it is the surplus from the project.


so, u have NPV of $ 1 billion and 30% of that....that is $ 300 million.....your expected NPV over 20 years, discounted at , I don't know what rate.


In concept PBB is correct..........



the NPV represents....if u invest...u get this much more compared to if u do not invest.............it is a residue figure from the spreadsheet.........it is not some thing tangible....The some thing tangible is what is already shown in your balance sheet...........
14/05/2020 5:50 PM

Public bank gave RM329m as annual free cash flow to Jaks only. Nothing else.

Ehome009's article is very powerful. It can bring back hng33 in no time.

This does not come from public bank
--------------
652 X 0.8 X 0.3 / 900 million shares X 6 = RM1.04 per share
14/05/2020 5:21 PM

hng33, can you do it? I do not wish to confront them. Thanks

At least someone showed some calculations this time

Now everyone can decide.
But don't ask me why x0.80, why 900m, and why x6. I don't know

-------------------------
i3lurker qqq3

I can give you the famous 1 liner

652 X 0.8 X 0.3 / 900 million shares X 6 = RM1.04 per share
14/05/2020 5:21 PM

The equity cost of JHDP is 25% x USD1.87 x 4.3 = RM2b. To say the RM1.096b is NPV is crazy. Invested RM2b into something worth only today's value (NPV) of RM1b. Immediate loss of RM1b.

Hng33, Thank you. why do you think some people want to interpret the FCFE as NPV ?
--------------
hng33 DK66
Your way of presentation is even clearer in these article, well done
14/05/2020 5:17 PM

We must not assume. Believe what you see. No such thing as too good to be true.

qqq3, Readers here are not interested in theory. Tell me do you think JHDP can make RM652m like Vinh Tan 1 ?

Ehome009 has proven that the amount derived by pbb represents the annual free cash flow discounted at 12%

Im sure PBB is more than capable to differentiate between NPV and FCFE

It is clearly stated FCFE, do not simply said it is NPV