Citigroup: Oil Is The “Trade Of The Year”

Citigroup sees Brent rising to $52 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year. A survey of 12 oil price estimates compiled by Bloomberg found a mean estimate of $47 per barrel by the end of 2016. Only a few months ago that would have been seen as extremely pessimistic, but given today’s price levels, an increase to $47 would equate to a 50 percent increase in less than a year.

all the bears will be buried.

Ok....very profound.
But even from this perspective, ....that oil price and stock prices will be strongly co related in the foreseeable future.....surely, a bull case is more believable than a bear case because oil is already at an unsustainably low price......

There is only one way left for oil price left and that is up....minimum it will close the year above 40.






gray
(834 posts
Posted by gray > Jan 23, 2016 03:32 PM | Report Abuse

Global finance dynamic is very different from those pe reading sifu. The pe reading sifu assume the world is forever the same. Only changes is the fluctuation of ringgit.)

George Soros says hard landing for China is a certainty..But he underestimate the Chinese people

in comparison, 1930s is the dark ages.

2008 people say end of the world too.

gray, it is not objective to be so worried....world do not go into 1930s very often.
people and central banks are much smarter than 60 years ago.

at this level...supply will shrink....demand has not shrunk and demand will continue to be strong.


/<Demand of oil never dissapear. Sorchai. Its the supply that has more than double. Go back your uni study economy 101 la.>

oil producers will suffer....but Japan, China , US, Europe will do well....that means every drop in market is a good time to buy export shares......very simple and profitable formula.



</,osted by gray > Jan 23, 2016 01:58 PM | Report Abuse

So wat if oil close at 40???
At 40 for next 2 yrs. 90% of producers still dead.>

no one has been able to show that demand for oil has disappeared.

no such thing. The world is actually very healthy....Even China is not half as bad.............and oil....oil will close this year above $40.



<World financial mkt has entered a phase never seen since great depression>

hate gets me going.

not bad.

The Republicans have become the Party of hate, the Democrats are split. Where got TPPA one?

There will be no TPPA because both Clinton and Bernie are against it.

lee

every year PUC will go to 14 sens at least twice.
2016 no exception.
just play this can also be very rich.

why would anyone even think of attacking me who raising some pertinent points unless the attacker depends on Con Con for handouts........hahahaha
so smart....go and address the points and where got wrong, or right.
attack the points, not the messenger.


<so you saying i3 everybody is stupid, you are the smartest lah ? >

they say I3 got people who knows stock market.
looks more like i3 has plenty of people who depend of handouts from con con.

stock market money grow on trees for con con.
I have to do some work.

exports with little import component will be the furniture guys, the timber guys.
exports with huge import contents will be those serving the MNCs. ..their old raw materials depleted and now charged to cost of sales are the more expensive imports.

First up, the Sept quarter has one month above RM4/US$. The December quarter has all 3 months RM above 4.
During the Sept quarter, a lot of the extra income would have come from forex gains, being the difference between the rates in which debtors were booked and the actual sums received.
During the Dec quarter, who will disappoint and who will shine is principally a question of........
- who has pricing power?
-who has less import content?
and who will disappoint will be those
- with a high import content
- who has less pricing power
- those who sets selling price based on cost plus
-those who has to share the good fortune with their customers because it is a very competitive industry.

Think about these issues. And don't just extrapolate from the Sept results. Get it right, you will be rewarded. Get it wrong, you will be punished

Examine your portfolio and share your ideas.

better question is where did the last Q revenue and profit growth come from. I have no idea.

=========================
Apollo Ang tobacco less demand cos too expensive nowdays. so beware of tien wah

16 posts by money friend. But pretty obvious who is this money friend....hahahaha
question is why? market down identity also change meh?

a very important topic.
and a neglected topic.

just like poker and blackjack....you can play by instinct and emotions...the professionals play by using probabilities.

back to back rally treble digit rallies in DJ since this was written...even oil goes up.
The timing of this article shows the value of old ginger....compared to the nervous emotionally driven money friends.

actually, statistics shows real economic crisis happens rarely, panic selling and shouting by Cramer happens a 100 times more often.

old ginger tells you to follow probability....not emotions.

paperplane 2016
This account has been banned for violating the Terms and Conditions of Use or Community Standards of this portal.

does that mean no more updates? hahaa

good sound companies, leaders in their field...........that is what good advisors can pick for you. ....even given you the reasons for the stock picks.
That is what KYY has given ....the rest is up to you.

There are thousands of professional advisors in Malaysia alone. The good ones do not recommend potential PN17 candidates.
And...an 83 years old do not trade like a 23 years old money friend.

Did KYY point you to potentialPN 17 companies?

If not, he has done his best as an advisor.

The role of the advisor is to give you a short list of good companies to invest in in order to be a super investor.
And also to avoid potential PN 17 companies.

I no need to pretend.

I know.....right or wrong is another thing.

I no need to pretend.


You make or you lose is your own making.

good sound companies, leaders in their field...........that is what good advisors can pick for you.

It would be irresponsible only if these turn out to be potential PN 17 companies in the future.

all 6 are strong solid companies, leaders in their field. Good management, good businesses, good set of figures at low/ reasonable PEs.

The next question is...........are you investors or traders?

If investors, if you don't focus on similar companies, what companies you want to buy?

For traders, you choose your own timing.........as unsolicited advise in a public forum, it is good enough that the list of recommendations is of good sound companies, leaders in their field...............whether you make money or lose money, it is your own strategies and your own timing skills. , and your own luck.

As they say, two people can enter the same share at the same time and same price, one can lose money and the money makes lots of money.

For the business, for 4Q, you will see both revenue growth and margin growth. There will be a drop in other income as forex gains will in 4 Q be accounted at the time of sales...and looking the previous months, there will continue to be volume growth in the business.
It will beat expectations.

never mind. Forget it.

rosmah mansur. now we have two stocks in common. Kesm and Chinwell..........huat huat together.

but how can you say things like limited downside when you see with you own eyes it diving everyday. limited downside is a share in consolidation phase and you understand its behavior and fundamentals.
this is a very weird share, that is for sure.
there is also the rabbit and the kura kura, and you need power to push up shares and gravity will pull down shares.

===================
joe2703 At current share price, JCY has very limited downside

you are right.(about the selling)
but how do you know you are right and the chap (who sold) is wrong? You don't I don't Nobody does. That is why psychologically it is so much easier to chase shares than to buy JCY kind of share.

I find the price of JCY incomprehensible and so don't want to touch.
Like someone says...talk talk only, no money put in and the price keep dropping and dropping. Reach 71 already so fast.

If I am advisor, I have no hesitation to recommend it to others....lol.

it again show to CEOs...don't simply do rights issues....it can be very damaging.

thats call good communication.

excfo, you so smart , why people so critical of JCY the giant and so forgiving of Dufu the Taofu in the same space.

they deal with MNCs, go figure out yourself.
they dont deal with Ali Ah Kow.
still....too much reliance on short term financing is stressful.

==============================================
Sifu Icon, out of the 602mil receivables, are you able to find out how much is doubtful debt since this info is not available in EG's annual accounts. What is known is only bad debts, but doubtful debts can distort the quality of their receivables. It would be helpful if we know the Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) of the receivables i.e. how old are the debts?

stubborn and wrong, loss big
stubborn and right, win big
KYY is stubborn and win big
in the case of Chinwell, I choose to be stubborn.

no appetite for $ 1 shares in this environment.

if I lose money I will look like an amateur.

It didn't take much volume to create panic prices in this environment.
a few million shares here and there.

I have lost plenty of money over the years buying China solar panel manufacturers listed in NY. You see, I wanted to show my support .

felix.if you are Green man...go and subscribe PUC la. Who knows, maybe you make a lot of money while doing good.

ps...read my last posting in PUC thread.

unless PUC is a scam.....got possibility.....
you should subscibe
they made a presentation at RHB last week , gives out research report by Mercury Securities....the IPP has 21 years contract , tarif at 54 sen per KwHr worth $233 million over 21 years.

the counter sure have always behaved like a Red chip.

car shares very tricky....just avoid all la.

if can make any money has to be exports.