now already the month of september , why the hedging matured at the end of Jun still an unrealised loss

one more silly question

what is Refining margin Swap contract (RMSC) of USS 226 million?

how it is related to hedging of the crack spread ?

probability,

honestly , it is more difficult to understand your hedging calculation than your profit calculatin using crack spread
one more silly question ,
under what circumstances will the 'ópportunity loss' due to hedging turns into real loss due to hedging ?

thank you very much probability ,

I will try my best to understand what you said and learn a new thing

Thank you very much Zhuge-liang,
you have explained how the high crack spread brings more income . this is not difficult to understand .
but , I believe most of the readers here are more interested to know how the unrealised losses are will eventually become zero. do you mind to explain further how the hedging mechanism of hengyuan work to protrect the income so that it is truly not a thing that a rational investor should worry about . thank you

Jerichchomy: ...... 2. The monster RM1 Billion "other comprehensive Income /expense " item in the P&L which very few understand and very difficult to be convinced.
3. The worry in the investors mind is that the Q3 2022 PAT could be RM3, but the monster in 2 above could swell to RM2 billion? At end of the day the high EPS might not be enough to cover the monster item in 2 above."

can Hengyuan survive without the hedging ? why it is ignored in the EPS calculation ? paper loss is not real but who can guarantee it will turn into a gain in the next quarter ? This is exactly the reason why we do not feel comfortable to put our money here .

Probability, I do not what is going on here . I was attracted by the calculated earning 222 per share, but I am perlexed by the unrealized hedging loss of 360 sen per share. can you kindly clarify in a layman language how is the hedging gain/loss can be ignored totally to evaluate the earning potential of hengyuan. it is unfair for the readers to be mislead or misinformed by a good earning with a big paper loss . thank you

i hope next time I come
I see some solid argument
not you common sense , imagination or wild guessing

frustration and disappointment , i will just ignore

BYE ......
good lucks

so, what is my final advice for you before I go back to my own group ?

invest like WB ?

how ?

always has plentiful of cash to invest when there is an opportunity

if not , you will be defeated by your own distress not the market

did you see our sifu Phillip cry father and mother when he see his PLTR dropped from USD29 to USD 8.00 ?

NO!

why ?

he knows what he is doing !!!!!

I am teaching to invest like WB
if WB were to do value investing as you did
then you will see him cry father and cry mother when UPSTART in his portfolio dropped from USD400 to USD25 .
but he did not
why ?
the reason he invested in the stock still remain intact and unchanged

how much you hate is how much you love
if not , what are you here for ?
no better stock to buy ?
no better person to make you a better investor?
have you ever wonder
why I am still very comfortable and undisturbed when Jaks is at its historical low now ?
why?
my reason for the investment still valid and has not changed
I have a reasonable exit plan that is still too early to expire
that is the difference
you never see me cry father or cry for every cent of price changes .

learnt ?

may be you should learn from Sslee
the way he invests in Insas
the true experience he fail to protect his profit
did he make himself less respectful doing so
did you make yourself more respectful when you prove other wrong or personal attack
NO! people do not see you logic
people see your disappointment and frustration
why there are such an emotion ?
your answer is as good as any reader here .

if I were you , then I will talk about my failure in this investment
real experience is anytime more convincing that proving other wrong which you know nothing about

talk something out of your own true experience is more valuable than that out of your imagination and frustration

mind to share with us your failure in your Jaks investment

another talk of frustration and disappointment .
if you are that rational thinking as your name has suggested , then you will be that emotional in your talk

this forum is full of misleading and biased information
new comers and readers are advised to read the comments with a pinch of salt
of course, that include my comment too.
what I can tell you honestly is that
Jaks is not a gem that is not as easy to unearth as you think
common sense and wild guessing will certainly not do a good job here
I can't share with you all the latest development discussed in our group
it is not because we are unkind or selfish
it is because it is too tire for us to correct all the distortions that we are going to face it if we do so.

what "Gotyou" said is common sense .
what "Skl4723" said is true fact

hope my good friends have learnt a good lesson

Very bad .
1. Ir you use the company performance to prove me wrong , then you are my sifu
If you use the price to prove me wrong in the short term , then you are my sifut (back side)
I doubt you understand what I am talking about . Do you ?

bye . good lucks

nothing I ever said is irrational or unreasonable
it is based on facts and data prepared by a qualified accountant and a power plant expert
but many smart sifu here who are NOT well versed or well trained in accounting fond of using their common sense to tell great stories.
if common sense is true knowledge , then we do not need a professional to tell us what is valid and unbiased
this is the first lesson that you have learnt for a serious investment
second lesson : why a retailer always lose money ?
reason given by WB : they can not afford to become rich slowly
Third lesson : what moves the stock price ?
reason given by KYY : any good news about the local loss making property segment , may it a disposal or break even , any good news about the power plant and good news about new energy project , any good news about the cash flow will make you see a new life in your investment .
my investment is to make big money , may it be once in a year or 5 years or 10 , but once it is done . i am no more poor . who bother Hengyuan will achieve RM8 tomorrow . what I want I am no more poor and talk lauder here ,whenever i am free to do so and whenever I enjoy to do so

Good homework done .
thank you
now the operating cost of a plantation is high
and maintain to be high at whatever price in the future
what i believe is that
if the oil palm were to go down to normal , that say a 30% ,
then you people who are still holding plantation stock
will experience the same glove slide a year or two ago

My good friend ,
I agree 100%with what you said

ALI :: Some said ALP PP price at 0.47 to benefit himself and his gang. Think this allegation is not true anymore

Paktua : Yes !!! this people don't know what is private placement suka-sula cakap tunjuk bodoh. what is PP? A private placement is a sale of shares to pre-selected investors and not for you and me . it is not the same as the right issue that every shareholder is entitled to the cheap sale . are you going to accept the chosen one at the price of 0.475 but the price go down to 0.32 less than a year . why people accept the chosen one at the first place ? they have too much money nowhere to keep , so cincai-cincai keep here ?

Muthusamy : !@##@%$^&%#@$% !!!!!!

Aseng : I am waiting ...

Sslee : what are you waiting ? my dear .

OTB : everything has a value . Aseng is waiting ... when the value to emerge , no big jaws will not saliva . that is the time he will shout, INI KALI LAH..... translated into English , it sounds , THIS IS THE MOMENT !!!!!!!

Samy :we are waiting for the moment , when I want to sell you cheap at a 3 cents kopi-o money , but you make it my paper loss of 5 cent . so, I do nothing and wait for the moment, when you want to buy from me at a good price but I told you no 100% i won't let go

Ah Kau : if you believe kopi -o trade can make big money , then you must ask yourself first , have learnt to die the word "DIE". bet too small , do nothing better. bet too big , can not sleep

ALI: If we are to look at it positively. Need to wash up the weak holder before price can move up. Consolation. ?

Ahmad : exactly if the weak hand don't lose money how the strong hand cari his rezeki ?

Just follow my exit plan strictly.
1 to 2 year from now for 100% to 300% based fair value calculated by many investment is not a waste of time . But it is certainly a waste of time for a gambler who had no say of his own life script and blinded by his own bad karma because non stop misleading people to sell at low and never say a word to protect the profit when the price is high.

why you can not enjoy the shares trading game as much as I do?

1. you are too anxious to win but I am not

when you are too anxious to win you can not afford to see paper loss, what more to wait for your hard earned money to bring back the big money . you spend all your valuable time glued the monitor to watch the price movement up and down. there is no peace in your heart. it is filled with excitement and disappointments for nothing . you forgot the reason you buy this stock is still valid . you want it to go up fast and furious everyday but everyday is a disappointment. you forgot the teaching in the school , if you want your musang king to grow well , forget and do not disturbed it unnecessarily is the best practice .

2. you are fully invested or overly invested but I am not

when you are fully invested , you do not have extra money to invest when opportunity arises . you do not have the extra money to buy more when people panic sell. you do not have the extra money to buy when you see GOOGLE , TESLA , APPLE .... are selling cheap now . you trading decision most of the time is governed by fear and frustration not a rational mind . you panic easily and tend to cut loss unnecessary

3. you do not follow your exit plan strictly but I do

most people has an exit plan but most people never follow the plan strictly as I do. my exit plan is constructed based on FA and rational mind . as long as the power plant is show show improving income , my exit plan is valid . there is a 2 years time. I reckon this time frame is good enough time for the management to deliver their promise to the shareholders during the AGM
if you have an exit plan, when the exit TP or the exit time is still far away , there is no reason for you to be fearful when there is a big drop in price. because you are not going to sell or buy , the paper money won't turn into a real money to you .

4. I spend most of my time to build good karma but you spend most of the time to voice your frustration but nobody care except Aseng

Every Investment needs LUCKS. if you are unlucky , no matter how good is the recipe based on FA or TA you will not enjoy the food . that is why you will see , I spend most of my time educating and providing guidance to whoever who has access of me to help him to make a right trading decision ,but you spend most of your time to tell your grandmother half cooked stories.
share trading is not the monopoly of a rich man . why the rich man is more successful but the poor man are less successful. the rich man already owned a lot good karma from previous life to be enjoy this life but the poor man has less good karma yet still working everyday to reduce it further . cursing this and cursing that, spreading fear and misleading information and wrong strategy which is no different from gamble, to create more sufferings in a suffering circle. so do not forget the saying : KALU TAK BOLEH BUAT BAIK , JANGAN BUAT JAHAT , KERANA TAK BUAT JAHAT ITU SUDAH CUKUP BAIK.

wishing those who have the good karma to see the truth in the message will enjoy a prosperous life together with Aseng

Value_investor _888,

you are a good man

technically i agree 100% with what you said

but

from the points of view of a value investing, I am 100% disagree .

thank you very much for your kind intention and guidance to the readers here

Do you know why I deleted some of the messages .

Because it contain certain name which is not worth the while mentioning what more to keep.

Do not forget what a good job you had done here when while many are suffering big paper loss.

When to sell jaks ?
if you are a genuine value investor, the timing is when the Power plant no long showing improving profit YEARLY certainly not a single quarter headwind or decline due fire accident as shown in the recently quarter. Or as I had revealed earlier ,
I have an exit plan , that is TP 1.50 or 2 year from cod whichever is earlier. This is a very rational play , I do not see what is so funny as seen in the behavior of a fake sifu .

of course it is ok to voice your frustration
but do not distort the truth
when the fundamental value is improving from year to year and the company has shifted its business focus to power generation and renewable energy to achieve a strong recurring income for the day to come . all the loss making business is to be discontinued
and the power plant has started to contribute profit , 39M (year2020) and 139M ( Year 2021).
be fair to the readers here by providing a fair and balanced view , not just touched on the negative aspect and ignore the positive one .

please stop spreading fear and misleading view here while the stock price is low BUT not a single words of guidance when the stock price shot up to 82 cents last year . we owned the right to screw you because when the price was high we asked the member to protect their profit .

yes, now is certainly not the time to sell or reduce one's holding

reason: downside is certainly less than 10%
upside is more than 100%

it is either you do nothing or take advantage of the low price to play short term to reduce holding cost

these are the figures not plug from the air
it is based on the calculation made by some rakuten , Melaka security, AffinHwang , peer comparative valuation and DCF valuation since power plant income is predictable

Unintentionally, may be no different from KYY to satisfy one's self ego.

Fair value by ib or Dk is just an estimation of how much a company worth based on one's own assumptions. The reality is as good as the assumptions made.
We know that very well
How can rational person like you to use such an excuse for your absentee when the price was high and is over valued to your belief what is your intention of your presence to share your wonderful stories when the price is rock bottom . Do you not know what is the damage you might have possibly done .

my good friend Sslee,

wake up my good friend
you has good enough money to live a good life this generation and next generation
I also have good enough money to live a good life this generation and next generation

it is fair to say
to provide a fair picture for all our good friends to make a right business investment
is more valuable than the little money we will gain when the market has proven jaks has indeed turned around later with the new focus and direction .

now the price is 0.365
the downside risk is limited
why you come out to tell you wonderful stories ?
to make some weak hands who have been holding the stock for more than 2 years
have their dream shuttled and panic sell at a big loss till left only the underwear
is it that important to prove yourself right compared with the damage you might have possibly done????

when the price was 83 , where were you ?
where was your wonderful stories to help to win a big prize

you are not an accountant
you can not read the account as good as DK

you are not a businessman
you can not read the business as ALP

I am also not an accountant
but I am guided by DK

I am also not a businessman
but I am guided by the management
they are more than willing to guide us about the company performance and prospect when we ask for it

please do not still keeping yourself live in other past failure after they has changed and found a new direction

why not give a big picture that tell the truth instead of a selective pick and choose

we put our money into Jaks because of the POWER PLANT

NOT it old business which the management had already clearly said it is in process of termination

it is the game changer for the company

the company has found a new direction

that is power generation and renewable energy that will provide a strong recurring income to the company

why you are silent on this matter

only pick and choose the company effort to restructure business structure

my good friends Sslee,

STOP misleading the readers here with you selective choose and pick figure without a comprehensive analysis .

a responsible person will never said anything that he is only half pass six know

That isn't you .

you are a gentleman to most of the readers here including me

please do not cheap sale yourself with fact that you know a bit and don't know a bit

why there are so much frustration here ? why I can win fast in a good business ?

The problem with jaks is that there is too many retailers participation . most retailers are not genuine value investors. They are not the one who are willing to keep and hold as long as the fundamental value of the company has not turned bad and the company is still moving in the right direction .

Most retailers are not good to manage their cash . they wish to get rich fast , so they are either fully invested or overinvested. Then they have no extra money to do anything when opportunity or better investment arises .

They are willing to" buy and keep "but CAN NOT afford to" buy and forget" . after a year or 2 , when they do not see the wanted return , frustration arises , you will start seeing them crying mother and father blaming the management , blaming fund raising for expansion . SO, how long can they survive in volatile market under such a huge pressure .

Jaks has plenty of weak retailers who are pressured to sell their share after keeping for 1 year or more than 2 years.
why ?
they can not live through the market washing washing out process where the wealth of the weak hand is transfer to those who deserved . market is a place where the strong hand and the very lucky ones make money , the weak hand is kicked out .

you can go the the public forum to read their comments . no one deny power plant is a cash generating machine BUT at the same time no one believe Jaks is a good company for them to buy and forget until they see the big money . Isn't this a contradiction ? isn't this an opportunity to make big money ?
have you forgotten the saying " when other are fearful we must be greedy " . "Only those great business than nobody want will bring you Big money "

Forget the past , whether it is good or bad , right or wrong . It can not be changed but can be learnt to construct a future in the way it is supposed to be . i still strongly believe the price of a fundamentally good valued company will not lie low forever.

Dear Sslee,

This is the answer given by DK when asked about the comment of the CFO during the AGM.

"Aseng, the total liabilities of JIC includes LAD provisions which are provided in JIC accounts for penalties payment to buyers for late delivery. Total amounts owed to Jaks and related companies is only about 72m. So yes, based on the additional 70m provisions made in 2020 which were most likely related to JIC, I believe the CFO was right to say that adequate provisions had been made in relation to JIC and there is no concern of future losses from JIC."

you mean you had asked the management last year

the total amount of advances from JRB to JIC = 34414521+26874939+12789590= 74M

The management had clearly answered you that there was a relevant provision for the impairment loss in the Q4 of 2020, am I right to read so ?

what was the company performance of the company for the year 2020?

there was a disposal gains of 89M but a profit before tax of ( -110m) in the year 2020

I still remember when this matter was asked in the AGM , the CFO replied it was sufficiently provided for
we had a heated argument on this matter because both of us had different interpretation of the CFO reply
I am not an accountant , neither you are
in order not to mislead anyone here with our biased view
I consulted DK, a qualified accountant who has many years of account auditing experience

the conclusion was the statement made by the CFO in the AGM was indeed reasonable and acceptable .

be a more responsible commenter here ,

do not forget to ask and share with us how likely this impairment of receivable is recoverable hereafter

Sslee The impairment of goodwill mean you overpaid for your to acquired 51% subsidiary companies. The impairment of receivables mean you write off receivables from whoever owe money to you.

So the questions:
Q1: Why on the first place you overpaid to acquire a 51% of a company?

Aseng : it worth the premium


Q2: Why no legal actions taken to recover the receivables?

Aseng: how do you know there is no action

Q3: Is the impaired receivables related to intercompanies or related parties advances/loans?

Aseng : you should ask for guidance from the management and clarify here , not put in all you effort to create fear here with your biased imagination

we should focus on the reason we invest in Jaks .
it is the power plant

if the power plant shows increasing income YoY ,
then the business that we had invested is right .

if the business is right and successful , then our investment is also successful .
it is just a matter of time for the market to reflect our success .

Retailers normal follow the market price more on the intrinsic value of a company .
price movement never our obedient son, when we say YES ,it can not be NO. even our own obedient son will say No sometimes when we demand a YES.

there are a lot of factors that can affect the market price movement .
an inflation , a rate hike , a Ukranian war will change the time table anytime and unbelievably and unexpectedly

BUT

the general principle is still true.
THE FAIR VALUE OF A COMPANY WILL BE REFECTED IN ITS MARKET PRICE


then,

you may ask, when is it ?

MANY TIMES AFTER YOU HAD SOLD .
AFTER YOU HAD CONCURRED WITH THE MISLEADING ARGUMENT OF SOME FAKE SIFU HERE .

why ?

you are not the chosen one to win the money
if you do not go , the the world can not turn