Orlando, your calculation is not correct
no PITA (38%)
no export tax (10%)
no supplementary payment (unknown)
no admin cost ( can see from previous QR report)

oil and gas sector will move in tandem with each other. so far, this sector Is muted. look at sapnrg , below 0.60

Derilock,

269m , if take 28% profit margin base on Alliance and Pbbank = RM75m

first datasonic need to up back to RM0.90

I believe it's 5% royalty + additional 20% from profit

today I heard from news the 20% royalty is base on profit from petronas, not from revenue

although dividend is high, there must be growth,

if not , i just buy annjoo 0.19/RM2.14 = 8.88% dividend yield @ 50% payout ratio and PE of below 6x

all financial ratio has got no meaning if management now willing to take care of shareholders la

wait for it to get listed on main board, there will be more price action when listed then

estimated listing in main board in August 18

dump also no need scared la. the ultimate low is still 0.23/0.28 = 82%, drop 18% only ma

i do not think this royalty will effect Profit sharing contractor.

Long term contract already signed base on royalty of 10% (5 state, 5 federal). Government cannot go back and renegade on contracts signed

KUALA LUMPUR: All states that produce oil will receive 20% of profit from the resource, Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad speaks in parliament.
image: https://content.thestar.com.my/smg/settag/name=lotame/tags=all,Int_Business_Finance,Int_Automotive

* Note: Campaign manifesto includes pledge to give 20% royalty to oil-producing Sabah and Sarawak states

* Government’s priority is on cleaning out damage from corruption and efforts to recover missing funds

* Government is committed to carrying out 60 promises and 40 commitments in its campaign manifesto

* Government may not be able to meet its 10 promises for the first 100 days in time - Bloomberg
Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/07/19/malaysia-to-grant-20pc-royalty-to-its-oil-producing-states/#hM8LWoCpBod3fG2Y.99

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/07/19/malaysia-to-grant-20pc-royalty-to-its-oil-producing-states/

any effect on hibiscus?

the private placement is nearly 80% complete already. balance 20% will be done by this month, so that can proceed with listing

this counter is low now because there is Private placement taking place. Once PP is over, the price will start to fly

this year, most small cap counters are trading at multi year low le. so going to RM0.23 is extremely good already

Petroleumincome tax(PITA) Tax rate:PITA is levied on the contractor’s income from cost oil/gas and share of profit oil/gas. The PITA rate was reduced to 38% in January 1998. Under the fiscal incentives introduced in November 2010, PITA will be reduced to 25% for marginal oil developments.

Supplementary payment:A supplementary payment is payable, equaling 70% of the excess revenues over a base price from the sale of the contractor’s profit oil/gas, less any export paid on liquids.The base price used for calculating excess profits is defined in the contract and is usually the prevailing price per barrel at the time of signature.

PSCs Production taxes

Royalty:Royalty is levied at 10% of gross revenue and is payable in cash. Production is measured and valued at the sales point.

Export duty:Export duty is levied on the portion of the contractor’s share of profit oil exported out of Malaysia.Export duty is deductible for tax purposes. The duty was reduced to 10% in January 1998. Under the fiscal incentives introduced in November 2010, export duty will be waived for marginal oil fields.

Other production taxes Research contribution: 0.5% of the contractor’s cost oil/gas production plus the contractor’s share of profit oil/gas. Domestic market obligation (DMO): There is no DMO incorporated into current contracts. Product

i think the profit sharing is calculated this way

North sabah total production 160000 bpd
Profit sharing 40:60

Hibiscus entitlement is 40% , around 6400 bpd already nett to hibiscus.

don't drop below USD 70 will be fine

hibiscus already setting a higher low . now waiting for the next up cycle swing

https://www.malaymail.com/s/1652827/penang-to-have-total-1041-cctvs-by-2019-says-state-exco-member

Penang CCTV is supplied by Datasonic

those that sold mother or warrant now, doing so at a loss...

RM 0.745+ RM 0.2/2 = RM0.845 breakeven

the minimum any of here buy for warrant should be around RM0.9, so breakeven is about

mother = 0.78, son = 0.24

since hibiscus warrant is trading at RM0.45, my TP prediction is also RM0.45.
because this warrant is 5 years instead of just 3 years for hibiscus

if you follow hibiscus warrant trend, initial listing price was very low, after about 2 weeks price, jump nearly 100% , this is now the accumulation stage for next upstage

wow warrant trading over 20million ringgit

if so powerful stock will not call for right issue la

i wonder who is selling at any price. crazy

free warrant will normally be listed 8 working days from ex date , the same with Hibiscus Petroleum

Therefore, listing will be around 11th or 12th July

whats the latest rebar price this week?

Outlook. Presently, amongst the mega infrastructure projects, only ECRL is contributing to the industry’s cement and steel demand. Both LMC and AJR are suppliers to the ECRL project, but volume contribution to both companies are minimal at <5% of total sales volume. However, the cancellation/deferment of the KL-SG HSR and KVMRT 3 will have an impact to industry’s volume from 2021 onwards when the demand from current mega projects (i.e. KVMRT 2, KVLRT 3) ends and there are no mega projects to replenish the demand. In the near-term, we expect LMC to post wider losses on the persistently keen competition. As for AJR, we expect the company to post stronger YoY 2Q18 earnings (but weaker QoQ on seasonal factors) given the rise in steel bar ASPs YoY (in-line with China’s ASPs) and stable sales volume growth YoY. We also think that the recent tariff on steel import into US would not undermine the steel ASPs. Assuming the affected imports into the US is substituted with local US production, US steel plant utilization will jump to 97% (2017: 74%) and increase global steel production by 2%, which could be countered by China’s ongoing capacity cut.

Sector top pick. We have a SELL call on LMC with a TP of MYR3.25 (1.0x FY18E P/B; -3SD to mean) as we do not expect any ASP hikes in 2018 to improve its earnings. As for AJR, we have a BUY call with a TP of MYR3.10 (8x 2018 PER, -0.5SD to mean) as we think the stock is oversold with its 12M forward PER at 5x, significantly below its historical mean of 10x.

maybank latest report give a target price of RM3..10

big purchase today by ben ben

if they want to cheat you, do you think they will pay 60% of profit as dividend? please stop all these fear mongering la

Court dismiss safeguard is a good news ma. Why price drop.?

I think the elecity tariff got something to do with this sell off

hibiscus - Wc is trading at such huge premium 61.58% any logical person will also sell and buy mother.

Substantial Shareholder's Particular:
Name DR KENNETH GERARD PEREIRA
Details of Changes:
Currency -
Date of Change Type Number of Shares
25-Jun-2018 Acquired 200,000
Registered Name Hibiscus Upstream Sdn Bhd
Nature of Interest Indirect Interest

Director bought in recently, which is a very good sign of confidence

this counter will not make money until year 2019. why get money stuck here ? buy signal is not out yet. better buy pure upstream player like Hibiscus that will DIRECTLY benefit from Oil price increase also projected forward PE of 4.5X only!!!

if Brent Oil USD80, target price from alliance dbs is

80/60 = 1.333 x RM 1.46 = RM1.95

1.95/0.89 = 219%

dsonic is not a BN counter. They supply CCTV to Penang dewan perbandaran to fight crime

is annjoo effected? still trying to figure out what is domestic and non domestic customers

Tenaga Nasional Berhad (“TNB”) wishes to announce that the Government of Malaysia (“Government”) has approved, via a letter from Suruhanjaya Tenaga (“ST”) dated 28 June 2018, the continued implementation of Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (“ICPT”) for the period of 1 July – 31 December 2018:
(a) The average Base Tariff remain unchanged at 39.45 sen/kWh.
(b) Due to higher fuel and generation costs for the period of 1 January – 30 June 2018, the additional cost of RM698.19 million or 1.35 sen/kWh ICPT surcharge, will be pass-through via the ICPT mechanism:
(i) Domestic Customers* – not affected by the ICPT surcharge
Domestic customers with monthly consumption below 300kWh will not be affected by this ICPT implementation.
For domestic customers with monthly consumption above 300kWh, the ICPT surcharge will be funded by Kumpulan Wang Industri Elektrik ("KWIE").
(ii) Non-Domestic Customers
An ICPT surcharge of 1.35 sen/kWh will be applicable.
Please refer to ST’s website (http://www.st.gov.my/) for further details on the ICPT.
The ICPT is a mechanism approved by the Government and implemented by ST since 1 January 2014 as part of a wider regulatory reform called the Incentive Based Regulation (“IBR”). ICPT mechanism allows TNB to reflect changes in fuel and generation costs in consumer’s electricity tariff every six (6) months. This mechanism is implemented according to Section 26 of Electricity Supply (Amendment) Act 2015.
TNB also wishes to inform that the impact of ICPT implementation is neutral on TNB and will not have any effect to its business operations and financial position.
This announcement is dated 29 June 2018.
* Domestic customers refer to Residential customers

hibiscus PSC is until 2040, terms and condition already stated there 5% royalty to state, 5% to federal, any changes to that will be a major breach in contract

i believe some FF is cashing out. Need to wait for them to clear all position

yes get free warrant

http://www.ccop.or.th/ppm/document/CAWS4/MalaysianPSC.pdf

according to Petronas sharing contract link above, there is no more corporate tax after PITA tax (petroleum tax)

Therefore, profit is even better @ 39% nett profit margin

my simple calculation on North sabah nett profit margin is as below:-


10% royalty payment (5% to Sabah, 5% to federal government)
20% cost recovery (this is opex cost)
minus 38% petroleum tax
add another 10% admin expenses

USD75 (estimated per barrel) - 7.5 (royalty) - 15 (opex) = 52.5 - 38% petroleum tax = USD 32.55 - 3.255 (10% admin expenses) = USD 29.295

@ USD 29.295, i do not know if subjected to corporate tax or not. I will assume 24% full corporate tax will be nett USD 22.264

22.264/75 = 29.6% profit margin ( this is extremely conservative estimation)

I have not added : tax credit for capital expenditure which will boost profit further

my estimation is 8500 x 90 days = 765000 bbl in total
north sabah is 5500x 90 = 495000bbl