The Chinese are paying $300.000 a year for foreign pilots...more than AAX's CEO salary...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-17/chinese-airlines-lure-expat-pilots-with-lucrative-pay-perks

After announcing the 2Q results (expected on 24Aug) of lower profits than 1Q (but certainly is double-better than last year), the Chairman will say that we had a 'challenging' quarter and had to do more frequent flights to get the 1 M passengers target. Also our load factor is down to 75% and our costs have gone up a bit. Going forward, we have to increase our pilots' wages as everybody in the region are buying more planes and slow in training the pilots for them.
When CEO says " ... the business environment is challenging, it means ... Houston, we have a problem..."

AAX to be taken private and re-list with JV Chinese in HK stock exchange.

The 4 rules of investing :-

1. Do constant research

2. Always trust your intuition

3. Do not make small investment else you are justing wasting your time
(make sure the reward is high enough to justify it)

4. Make good decisions with incomplete information


..... and how do make good decisions from incomplete info?

..... Go back to Rule No. 1

On AAX's 2Q16 results, we can estimate the Revenue from the RPK and number of passengers carried. Compared to 1Q16, the RPK is down 4.4% and passengers down 2.2% in 2Q16's operating stats. So, Revenue for 2Q is est down 6.6% to RM 906M from RM 970M in 1Q.

If op margin for 2Q is 11% (same as 1Q), the op income is est at RM 99M. If op margin is 15%, the op income can do RM 137M. (AirAsia and Ryanair has done 20% & 22% op margin respectively).

Forex gain is est at RM 90M as USDMYR is about 4.15

Financial cost is est at - RM 20M and Corp Tax at - RM 52M (mean from prev qtrs)

Therefore, NET Income can be RM 117M to RM 155M (depending on op margins of 11% or 15 %)

AirAsia X is resuming expansion in the Australia-Malaysia market, offsetting cuts which were implemented in early 2015 as part of a restructuring. The long haul low cost airline will operate 56 weekly flights between Australia and Malaysia in late 2016, matching its previous high of 56 weekly flights in late 2014.

AirAsia X is now looking at further expanding its network in Australia with several potential new destinations. Several new destinations are under consideration, as well as additional capacity to its four existing destinations – Gold Coast, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney.

Cuts at Malaysia Airlines have opened up a potential opportunity for AirAsia X to add more capacity to Australia’s four primary cities – where Malaysia Airlines has relinquished traffic rights. AirAsia X has already added capacity from Jul-2016 to the Gold Coast, where there are no bilateral restrictions, and is adding three seasonal weekly frequencies to Melbourne from early Dec-2016.

Revenue in AUD$ is good Forex gain for AAX....

A lesson on how to sink together !

If you can't fix your own Airline, let's fix the other Airline... then we can all share the same problems together... http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/08/05/malaysia-airlines-ceo-calls-for-uniform-passenger-charges-at-klia-klia2/

Next move by AirAsia is to move to KLIA1 if airport chrgs are the same... and the close down KLIA2.....
..... then we can all CONNECT so easy....

Let's us not make so much crap comments and to focus on sharing more info & data in this forum.

As a general rule, the most successful investor is the one who has the best information.... and could sense the change that is coming...

My 2 sen worth (to nudge AAX) :

Why you should invest in Airlines in 2016-2017 :
(1) A container truck burns 1 tonne of fuel in 50 hours. An Airbus A330 jet liner burns 2 tonnes of fuel in 1 hour.
(2) Jet fuel is 40-50% of its operating costs in Airlines. Jet fuel prices has dropped from USD88 in 2015 to USD 50 per barrel in 2016. Many Airlines has started hedging at USD42 for 2017.

#Better Outlook for AAX in 2016-2017

(1)A new, more disciplined approach to capacity expansion at AirAsia X has emerged, with a focus on new routes connecting existing AirAsia destinations and pursuing fifth freedom opportunities in markets under-penetrated by LCCs. Also, increasing ancillary revenue in its model.
In Australia the AirAsia X Group now has a more balanced approach and in China a expansionary market assisted by new e-visa to Malaysia. A new strategy for the Australian market is important factor of its turnaround plan.(Australia accounts for one third of AAX's seat capacity).
Long-term debt has declined and cash flow is improving.
Constant improvement in product and service innovation (self check-in bags, 80% on schedule, new routes & more flights, etc.)

(2)AAX expanded from 13 aircrafts in 2013 to 31 aircrafts at Aug 2016. This is a viable business for next 20 yrs or unless oil prices shoot above USD100 (which is unlikely with so much shale & oil sands reserves plus solar/wind installations, electric vehicles, etc.)
What the collapse in oil price has done to airline economics? The price collapse has made many routes that were less profitable or unprofitable to fly in the past now profitable to fly, causing an increase in demand for aircraft in markets where airlines are looking to exploit this.

(3)AAX or AirAsia is a "strong brand" and plays a strong role in low cost air travel in the Asia Pacific region. No strong competition (Airasia makes more money than MAB and has replaced MAB as Malaysia's top Airline).

(4)Demographics play a strong role.
Millenials travel more - must go on vacations often and work less. Low Cost carriers will be preferred mode of travel compared to Full-service Airlines in an austere Economy and cost-cutting by company travel. With internet & smartphones, flight bookings, boardings & check-ins will continue to improve and air travel by LCC becomes a breeze. An Airline business is a also a data processing business as well as a transportation business as they deal with wide spectrum of passengers' profiles,

#A New chapter for Airlines & Low Cost Carriers
“Today, the European market is actually defined by the low-cost model. If you want to make money, you have to compete against low-cost carriers.”
Watch Ryanair, EasyJet & Wizz In Europe and SouthWest in USA overtook its FSC peers in passenger numbers...

MAS has lost market share (domestic & International) to AirAsia & Malindo...
Eventually MAS have no way out except to merge with AirAsia or Malindo.... just like Uber China has no way out but merge with Didi Chuxing else too stiff a competition is a waste of billions

AmBank has a much better valuation than CIMB and also low exposure to Indonesia & Thailand. Poor yields in O&G, Plantation & Coal mines will continue to affect banks in general for next few qtrs...

MAS in turbulent times...changing aicrafts from B777 to A380, buy A350, buy B737Max, park A380, activate then deactivate B747.... http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/2016/07/27/malaysia-airlines-747-retired/#_ga=1.126265485.1642475969.1469670208

'Somethink' brewing in August. Just guessing this one... AirAsia sell 25% leasing unit to China Everbright, use the RM 1B to take AAX private under AAB, then another listing of AAB in Hong Kong (largest market in Asia). AAB will be a fully integrated aviation unit with short & long haul, Leasing arm & training centre for Airbuses. Most Asians will then be partners & shareholders.... no more issues with cash and trust

Shareholders will get 1 CIMB Niaga Tbk shr for every 6.39 CIMB shrs. CIMB low on Ringgit so give Rupiah to shareholders (1 Cimb Niaga shr worth 900 Rup).

On AAX huge losses in 2014-15,
AAX also had indigestion in 2014-2015 with 8 qtrs of losses....mainly 'self-inflicted' in a tough external factors of high fuel prices & USD. Remember QZ8501 crash, Directors/Maj.shrholders sold stocks in early 2015, GMT HK accounting chrgs, aircrafts sale & leaseback, Indo AA losses, licensing & widespread haze grounding flights in 3Q15, & in short just out of favour with investors ?
A new CEO and a 2 yr Turnaround Programme is now in place and working. Whatever it is, going forward, AAX will do well in 2016 vs 2015 and much better in 2017. For Malaysia, AAB passengers & load factor may have peak this year but Thailand still increasing.
AAX has more potential to grow ... So, where wud u put your money ?
Remember any fool's airline will make money in 2017 when WTI crude oil is $42

AAX capitalisation is RM 1.57 B and Enterprise value is RM 2.85 B.
SIA privatised Tigerair at its EV of S$1 B or RM 3 B in Jan this year.
Tigerair has 24 aircrafts and AAX has 29 Airbus 330s. Where wud you put your money?
Eventually, 'tis a good plan to privatise AAX at its EV then JV with Everbright China to list AAX, Thai AA & the Leasing unit as a new full integrated Asia Aviation biz in the HK Stock Exchange.
There are more millions of passengers from Thailand to China than from Malaysia to Australia..

While Malaysia Airlines continue to have Mgt indigestion as it is trying to morph into a hybrid Airline (premium seats in front & low cost at the back), AAX are cruising with cheaper fares & better service (whether front or back) plus barista coffee and hot hostesses.
Any fool airline will perform well when crude oil continues to linger at $45-50...

Tony, Ben & gang are on a road-show in London & Boston to brief Portfolio Mgs & Investors. If you got no story to tell, would you go on a road-show?
Prepare for August when the op stats & earnings are released.

Expected 2Q16 results to be alot better than 2Q15.

In the 1st half of 2015, AirAsia's marketing & sales affected because of Flight QZ8501 crash, MERS outbreak in SKorea in May, and earthquake in Kathmandu. As such 2Q15 recorded a very low load factor. Also, Adelaide and Nagaya routes halted.

In 2Q16, flight frequencies to China, Japan & Australia have increased compared to 1Q16, besides adding the new Auckland and New Delhi routes.

Not to worry so much about individual quarters of more or less profits as long as year 2016 overall will be a bumper year for AAX...

Vivocom has no crazy profit. It just bot over Neata (an aluminium parts company) and another real estate Co. So, latest Qtr showed higher revenue and profits compared to prevoius qtrs (after buying over other people businesses) . All paid for by issuing more shares. Instacom was listed in 2008 with 250M shrs - a company intalling telco towers. Now it is known as Vivocom with 2.5B shrs i. e. 10X more. You need to ask yourself.. . Has it got a sustainable business?

This is a better qtr than the previous one (4Q15) because :
1. Revenue has increased by 14%
2. Staff costs have reduced by 10M
3. Plus Forex gain, the Profit before Tax increased by 44%
4. This qtr paid Tax 39M, previous qtr had deferred Tax added

Next qtr will be better :
1. More Revenue from the new routes to Auckland and New Delhi
2, More revenue from increased flight frequencies introduced in April26 to China, Japan & Australia
3. Less staff at counter with web & mobile check-in
4. Same headoffice, same staff and same number of planes... just better Managed

I hope AAX & AirAsia Airlines are beginning to view themselves as data companies first and transportation companies second.... and less football, car-racing, hotels, phonecards, etc.

A profit should never be taken for the satisfaction of taking it...

Taking small profits in good investments and letting losses grow in bad ones is a sign of abominable bad judgement...

The Airline Industry is on a GROWTH path for 2016-2017 !
(1) India passenger traffic is growing at 20% for domestic and 8% for the International market
(2) China’s aviation outlook is more than just bright; it is arguably the strongest it has been in its history. Chinese aviation is heading for an upturn over the next 10 years as part of its “golden era”!
(3) Iran …from almost any angle, Iran represents a remarkable aviation growth prospect. Iran is the second largest economy (pop. 80M) of the Middle East and North Africa region – behind Saudi Arabia. The re-opening of Iran presents a compelling proposition…
(4) Indonesia has a strong domestic market (the World’s 5th largest domestic market) but weak International passenger growth because of the stalling of its Economy and weak Rupiah.

Look at the business that is likely to succeed & the Industry that is growing...

Do not jump in & out & make small investments, else you are just wasting your time !

AAX achieving RM 1B revenue for 1Q16 may be difficult as it would mean a 17% increase in revenue over 4Q15 because passengers traffic has only improved by 7%.

Look at Thai AirAsia 1Q16, revenue is up 16% when passengers number improved by 18%. Most likely AAX revenue for AAX 1Q16 is estimated at RM 922M as RPK has only increased 8%.
Forex gain is about 5-7% or RM 50M only. No deferred tax expected.

Thai AirAsia at 1Q16 managed a operating margin of 28%. If AAX can do a 20-25% operating margin, then net income for 1Q2016 is about RM 234M to 280M.

Do not dream to fly above 50,000 ft, just cruise at 40,000 ft is good enough...

As in the past, AAX and AAB quarterly result announcements are done on the same day....
1Q16 results on Friday 27 May 2016 after market has closed...comprende?

If AAX net income for whole year FY16 achieves 415M for its 4148M total shares, it equats tp eps 10 sen per shr or worth RM1. 20 share pricing for AAX. So, only need 104M net income for 1Q16.....but fuel savings alone for first qtr is already RM 100M. Still mulling? ITiots?

If AAX gets 2 qtrs of consistent profits, the CEO has got its act together esp on cost control and 5th Freedom routes optimised. Fuel and Forex gains are just external factors that add a lot extra $$$ to the profits for this year. Trading and traders are always there but the important point is that you are buying into a good business (i.e. the LCC business that will continue to replace the full service airlines). Why Thai Airways, MAB, SIA & Cathay Pac are losng passengers and its business? Now that AAX and AAB has been working to get market share in this region over the past 5 yrs..... it's a new chapter altogether.
Just you wait to see AAX go a Leicester.... (forget about QPR, that is history)

Airline Alliance and code sharing are for losers... as they have to share aircrafts and passengers.
See Nok Air losses http://centreforaviation.com/news/nok-air-losses-widen-in-1q2016-554881

Thai AirAsia Revenue up 16% - financial highlights for three months ended 31-Mar-2016:
1Q16 Gross profit: THB2489 million (USD69.8 million), +57%;
1Q16 Net profit: THB1832 million (USD51.4 million), +99%;

FY2015 Net Profit was THB1991 million. 1st Qtr 2016 Net Profit almost hit the Net Profit for the whole year of 2015. Astounding first quarter and a good year (2016) coming for Airlines ....

D/Faye_Wong or Faye_Whats_her_name, you seem to be able to write very well. Perhaps we can get together for cafe, I shall the content and you write? txt me.

AirAsia has big plans coming for the Thai IPO listing & the largest LCCT terminal in Don Mueang airport in Asia. This terminal was revamped for LCCT carriers in 2013 after closing in 2007. Passenger growth is astounding from 6M passengers in 2012, 16M pass in 2013, 21M pass in 2014 to 30M passengers in 2015. Once Airasia corner this LCC market and this airport, it will be the top of the hill in Asia. That is one of the growth prospect for Air Asia as the Malaysian LCC market is almost saturated. I think this time Fernandez & Meranun may have got its act & focus together and have seen the bigger picture.
The plus points are that Thailand has double the pop of Malaysia and Bangkok is also the preferred hub for Europeans travelling to SE Asia.

BANGKOK: The owner of Leicester City Football Club (LCFC), King Power International Group is reportedly eyeing the takeover of Asia Aviation, operator of budget airline Thai AirAsia.

According to The Nation newspaper today, King Power, owned by billionaire Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, planned to expand into the aviation sector in a bid to increase sales at its duty-free shops.

“The Srivaddhanaprabha family has reportedly spent three billion baht (RM1=8.55 baht) buying shares in Asia Aviation, leading it to become the largest shareholder in the airline company with a 23 per cent stake,” said the newspaper.

Vichai, who is also chairman of LCFC, the newly-crowned English Premier League champion, is Thailand’s ninth richest man according to the Forbes magazine last year.

Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2016/05/07/leicester-city-owner-eyeing-takeover-of-thai-airasia/#ixzz488gtniDt

Rayani Air suspended and Malaysia Airlines will be in limbo for next 6 mths without intense CEO Mgt, AirAsia will benefit when competition is in trouble. AAX-W up 50% since K Meranun bot in 18M shrs of AAX-W from Apr19-29. Conversion to AAX for AAX-W is 46 sen and expiry in 2020, so right now AAX should be worth 46+25=71 sen with Meranun's commitment and confidence.

sharing this twitter from @tonyfernandes: Long meeting with Ben and X. Ended in Wip for dinner. So impressed with X. Probably the most undervalued airline in the world. Let the nunbers speak. Wel done to all in Airasia X

I like AAX, so it is "Everyone can protest Xtra Strong".
Viva AMAX.

.. when Authority makes ridiculous demands, a Union would be formed to protest against it. The Airlines must thank the DCA boss for initiating the move to create a Airline Association (AMAC) and also thank MCA boss for suppoting a proposal that create more 'protest' groups in the country........Now Everyone Can Protest

Finding pattterns in random noise :-
Airlines are making profits with the low oil prices e.g. Cathay Pacific, RyanAir, AirNZ, TigerAir, MAB, SIA, AirAsia, etc. The full benefit of lower oil prices should be felt in 2016, when most fuel hedges will be based on the lower price environment seen in 2015 or Jan 2016.
Why AAX? Buy on the business that is on the turnaround as in many airlines in the world.

Which airline will do well will depend on how AAX can sort out its operating margin. Currently operating margins in AAX is 2%, AirAsia is 18%. Even a Greek airline like Aegean airline can do 10%. AAX and Airasia need to follow the Ryanair model and its achievement of 41% operating margin.
All Tony needs to do is to look for a clever CFO who understands Connectivity,Routes (& Airline Freedoms of the Air) and Margins. When AAX can achieve ave 15% operating margin, then it will be a 1 Ringgit share price.

Tony is borrowing 1B from bank or friends to put in more money for AirAsia (his own company). You only put more money into your own company if you believe that it is a good business. Dividend is also higher this year (4 sen - a 30% increase over last year). Share buybacks by Co or directors do not grow a company organically, it only helps in building confidence for shareholders. Tony's way is to put in more CASH (borrowed or otherwise) to grow the business and to control Asia's sky (like what Ryanair do to Europe and Southwest Airlines do to N.America). In an austere Economy, low cost carriers rule!

CIMB analyst knows nuthin' about Airlines to downgrade it to 15 sen. Nobody downgrades Airlines at these fuel prices. Boeing is laying off 4000 employees because of lower orders of aircraft. First, Airbus's wide body & more efficient aircrafts have stole most of their orders. Second, Airlines can continue to use old aircrafts because fuel is so cheap...