anyone attending AGM? pls tell BOD to forget about rubber estate & planting... leave it to the planters. Liihen is good at making bed furniture, stick to your furniture business. Raw material prices go up&down, concurrently you change your furniture prices. The wood from your rubber estate is never enough for your furniture business. Tell BOD to think big on expansion (new demand & production) on what you do best...

From KYY's own words in his blog written on 15Aug 2017
...http://koonyewyin.com/2016/08/15/the-mistake-of-selling-when-the-price-is-rising/

"...Fortunately, I admitted my mistake of selling early and bought back to become substantial shareholders of these 3 companies.

As you can see, Lii Hen has been producing increasing profit in the last 8 quarters and its earning per share (EPS) was 11.68 sen in 1st Q 2017 in comparison with 5.97 sen 1st Q 2016. If you have sold earlier, it is advisable to buy back now at around Rm 3.08 per share.

You must ask yourself these questions:

In the last 2 years, did you buy any of them?
If you have bought, when did you sell?
And did you buy back at higher prices?... "

So, If KYY has been selling at RM3.08 today, then his ethical preaching has flew out of the window...

I am still wondering who is selling at 3.08 today ?

After Felda pulled out its settlers' estates, FGV just move from managing one unproductive plantation to manage another unproductive plantation in Kalimantan (PT Eagle,PT Ganda,etc.).
Ask yourself, can FGV Mgt capable to turnaround plantations' performance? any track record?
So, where are the potential earnings?

Some will sell export stocks like gloves and wood because of US Dollar weakening against Ringgit.... but this is only temporary. Where are the drivers for a strengthening Ringgit ?
....unless Gov't demand exporters to return 90% of export sales (currently 75%)
..... don't see much consumption and employment stats to support a bustling Economy

If you read the 2016 Annual Report pg 150 under List of Material Landed Properties, the last property is a 9049 sq m. factory bldg acquired in Apr 2016. Then look at pg 7 on Operational Developments, it is stated by Mgt that factory will be operational by 2017 and capacity will be increased by 10%.
Maybe KYY knows about expansion, I dunno.....but he sold before report released

If y

KYY sold 2M shrs before 2016 Annual Report was out. He may be mistaken as Liihen is expanding its operations in 2017 with new factory bot in Apr2016.

My 2 sen contribution...

(1) Felda is a basically a land development scheme initiated in 1955 to settle the rural poor so they could earn from plantation crop (at the same time to clear the jungle as the communist terrorists were hiding there). It was a very successful Settlers' land development scheme such that loans to World Bank, ADB, Saudi,Kuwait & Japan Funds were paid back ahead of schedule.
By 2010, Felda have settled some 120,000 families in some 300+ schemes over 450,000 hectares of rubber & oil palm plantations and accumulated more than 5 B Ringgit of investment fund.

(2) Somehow and sometime in 2011, some smart one suggested IPO (FGV) and several new investments in some downstream activities like refineries in palm oil, sugar, rape seed, rubber, sturgeon, cafes, etc. They added mediocre plantations in Pontian, Sarawak, Trengganu, Kalimantan, etc. with growing conditions that unable to sustain high yields. Issues with RSPO starts to arise when it is accused of clearing primary jungle forests and peat to plant oil palms in Indonesia and Sarawak.

(1) and (2) has to separate... else if together, it may eventually sink...

Ring, palm oil quality & ffa do not increase\ot deteriorate if you keep the storage tanks heated. Even when ffa is above 5% (when harv rds are high), most Cos blend batches of oil to keep ffs below 4% to distribute. Nobody throws crude palm oil away...

Short-term Target for FGV is RM3.00.
1. New investors buying stake in FGV
2. FGV-PT Eagle JV on upstream biz
3. FGV-Cofco on China distribution biz
4. Higher crop production, CPO prices, Rubber prices in 2017
5. 2017 annual report for a bumper year

Malaysian are only world-best in one thing only.... planting oil palms
and nobody has lost money growing oil palms unless it is stolen

on % warrants not held by issuer, check Bursa announcements 1st week of month, see http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/structured-warrants/5357825

Kenanga only hold 17% of C16

FGV net profit 4Q16 is 110M... so FGV out of ICU, now in Ward 6 recovering and recuperating.. should be out of hospital by mid 2017

... so tomorrow is a suspense or a suspension ?!

...if by Friday close, no Qtr4 financial report....
then most likely by Monday, the counter will be suspended
... just wait for breaking news

GE14 in a few mths ... AhJeeb not happy with 2016 financial results and so CEO has to go back to the drawing board....

My message to FGV Mgt and Shahrir:

Why Privatise?
There are many reasons for the privatisation of
listed companies. The most common reason, and
probably the most compelling as well for the
privatisation, is that the value of the shares of the
listed company that are traded in the market is
substantially lower when compared to the
fundamental and intrinsic value of the listed
company. Therefore, the promoter of the
privatisation stands to benefit substantially if they
are able to privatize the company at a price that is
substantially lower than its intrinsic value. There is
nothing wrong with this, as this is how an efficient
capital market is supposed to operate....

....Crowe Horwath International

FGV & its issues are a continued embarrassment to Malaysians & the Govt on how not to run an palm oil plantation company. It's a feeding ground for the Edge, BFM and the Star reporters.

It is better to privatise it now at RM 3.00/shr rather than to languish for another 6 months at <RM2.00 .....else will continue to remain as a casino platform for share trading by warrant issuers, day traders and scalpers.

On FGV’s prospects and CEO remarks :-

1. Zakaria said that he is confident that the group is on track to achieve its targets for the 2016 financial year.

2.We will be announcing the fourth quarter results on Feb 22 and god willing it will be better,” he told reporters after a dinner organised by FGV in conjunction with the Ch inese New Year celebration. Zakaria remained tight-lipped on the data but was confident in saying that the results were definitely positive.

3. 4th Qtr 2016 & year2016 Earnings Result is a done deal

4. Felda's purchase of 37% stake in PT Eagle is also a done deal putting in place growth in CPO for the next 20 years. Purchased land value of PT Eagle at US$16,000/hectare. (Kretam shr at 55 sen but purchased land value at US$20,000). Which is a better deal?

5. Some the laggards & kick-backers already flushed out ...
.... new Chiefs & new brooms will sweep better

6. FGV expected target price of RM 3 by end June

7. Whatever... Plantation companies on a bumper year in 2017

I guess it's a better 4Q16 result as CEO is so keen to announce it earlier (Feb22) to shareholders in February. Previous years announced on Feb29,2015. Feb24,2014, Feb26 for 2013 & 2012.
It's not a statistical correlation, only my general perception...

KPF sold shrs in FGV for dividend payout (10-15%payout every year) to its Cooperative members (employees & ex-employeees of Felda). No need to raise eyebrows over this issue...

CPO production in 4Q16 is 7% lower than 3Q16 but CPO price is RM300 higher. Every RM100 increase in CPO price is translated to an extra RM100 M in profits for large plantation companies like Sime, KLK, Gentings, IOI, FGV, etc.

Shall we all do a crowd funding to break the FGV 1.90 barrier? Need about RM4 M to buy up the 2M shrs that is blocking at 1.89-1.91 price levels

My guess is Kenanga is pressing FGV down hard so as to buy back C16 warrants (Kenanga's highest issue of 150M units in structured call warrants). Issuer has bought back 40M shrs in Jan17 as it now owned 30% at end of Jan compared to end Dec16 of 4% of total listed shares. Maybe, after Kenanga has bought back another 60M of C16 warrants then it will release FGV...
Will it be a proxy fight of Jib vs Taib ?

According to cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Malaysia’s January 1-20 palm oil exports rose 20.8 percent to 733,002 tons compared to 606,937 tons in the corresponding period last month...

...this is just to say the business is good & getting better, but the people in charge of the business is not good & getting worse...

Every 8 yrs or so, every business needs a revamp of its Management, Structure & Style to keep it growing and alive (just like what's happening in the USA right now).

Ten years ago in 2007, Synergy Drive was a consolidation for 3 plantations - Guthrie, Golden Hope and Sime Darby. The benefit was to reduce overheads from 3 HQ buildings & Staff, 3 R&D centres, 3 boards, and to improve by using one best practice for Plantation Management.

Today in 2017, you need a Synergy Drive II - same argument for rationalisation of resources like only One HQ & Board, One Research & Development Centre and One style of Plantation Management. The rest are just Wastage...

The current CEO of Sime was once CEO of FGV and Tabung Haji and probably is the right person to know what can work and what cannot work in all these companies and also how to connect the dots.......

...from Khor Reports : KL social media reports rumours of China interests to take stake in key Malaysia palm oil plantation companies, citing references in HK Chinese-language media. It would be logical to see greater inclusion of Malaysia GLC corporate interests in China-Malaysia deals (news to be verified).

The possible merger of Sime-FGV-Eagle plantations of total planted area of 1.1 M hectares ?
The largest plantation company in the world ?

Adcool is right that Felda is starting to accumulate...

1.already accumulated RM280M from sale of 35M Maybank shrs,
2.will accumulate another RM500M from sale of hotel at Kensington,
3.going to accumulate another RM1.23B from sale of bal 150M Maybank shrs
4.continue to accumulate another RM400M from sale of 47M shrs Sime Darby
Total cash accumulated RM2.41B. Spend RM10M on Felda social activities.
Bal RM2.4B cash accumulated

Next, announce to Bursa on share buyback,
1. start accumulating FGV 1.3 B shrs at RM1.85 avg
2. Felda now owns 2.64B FGV shr (1.34B+1.3B)
3. Felda start privatisation offer of RM4/shr to buy balance 1 B shr in market
4. Privatisation cost is now RM4 B. or RM4.5 B.(if offer is RM4.50)

Felda settlers & all shareholders will have a happy new year.
Felda is also happy ... no loss as all assets still in place but in different forms.

To be successful in running a listed plantation company, you need to be able to manage the 3 Ps (People, Plants & Profits). If FGV is only strong in one P as it's main focus is on caring for the People and not good enough with Plants and Profits, then stick to the one P.... i.e. Privatise!

FGV should not have been listed in 2012 as it is a social & land development programme for the nation's rural poor. Investors in FGV have a different objective and demand dividends & profit growth every qtr & improving metrics as a listed company. This is clearly a mismatch.

With the joint venture & collaboration with PT Eagle and Indonesia, what 'platform' is Felda going to use to integrate their plantations, research & advisory, if FGV is hopeless in managing plantations?

If you have the option and plan to privatise, what steps would you take?

1. keep FGV price low at 1.70 & below so any offer of + 30% more, it is attractive
2. buy time to dispose of hotels & Maybank/Sime shrs or borrow from S'pore to ready cash
3. park old chairman & board in FGV so it seems hopeless & rudderless (but sack all Directors & Mgrs in FIC responsible for all the bad investments made in the past 4 yrs)
4. let the press know there's no deliberation of privatisation & let the press bash FGV

...but, if you choke on it too long, it is going to die a natural death...

Meanwhile, Felda chairman Tan Sri Shahrir confirmed that it was selling Maybank shares for RM280mil to raise funds to continue programs for its small farmers.

However, Felda denied sale of Maybank shares was linked to the Eagle High acquisition

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday Felda looking to dispose more of its assets and it was also seeking to sell hotel assets in London this year as returns do not justify remaining in that business.

Felda raise cash in Maybank share sale when sale of PT Eagle not yet approved by Gov't of MY and Indon? If sale not approved, use cash to privatise ?
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/17/felda-seeks-to-raise-cash-via-maybank-share-sale/

The Chairman of Felda said No decision Yet on FGV Listing.... will let Chairman of FGV know later if it's on or not...
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/01/16/shahrir-no-decision-yet-on-fgv-delisting/

That was ITS CPO exports estimate.

According to cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Malaysia’s January 1-15 palm oil exports rose 12 percent to 520,332 tons compared to 464,582 tons in the corresponding period last month.

Just like all the Analysts' forecast for the FGV's target price...is it 1.77 or 3.54....

Palm Oil Exports Malaysia :
With the increase of 6.7% as of 15 Jan this year, if sustained, this rise suggests a 'bullish tone' in the near term... this is 'extremely rare' for Malaysia's January palm oil exports to exceed those of the preceding month.............

KWAP Chairman meant Enterprise Value not Net Tangible Asset when he says value of asset....
The EV of FGV is RM 16.78 B (by Gurufocus) and total listed FGV shares 3.648 B....
so EV per shr is RM 4.60

The present NTA is not reflective of fair value as these accounting standards IAS16 (for bearer palms) and IAS41 (for Agri produce) have not been measured or quantified and disclosed...
so it is more than RM 4.60

Felda itself is planning a series of roadshows to convince settlers in its plantation areas of the PT Eagle deal's benefits and the New Restructuring Plans for 2017. This to counter Rafizi's claims and the Edge bashing of Felda... The counterstrike has started...

FGV may consider selling Asian Plantations PLC and Pontian Plantations Bhd to Sime Darby, even at the same prices that it bought. These 2 units have a better fit with Sime rather than under FGV.

Higher exports and lower inventory for CPO this January will set the stage for price uptrend. For plantations, when product prices are up... all the problems will disappear...
Don't analyse so much,,,, just hold on to your FGV

Jan 10, 04:37 : According to cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Malaysia’s January 1-10 palm oil exports rose 10.7 percent to 338,777 tons compared to 305,990 tons in the corresponding period last month.

Look at CPO prices in last El Nino 1997/98 when CPO jumped up 30% in Jan1998, I expect similar occurrence in Jan or Feb 2017 (after El Nino 2016) for CPO price to jump to RM 3500 pmt... once India got its cash notes sorted out...

CPOPC secretariat start operations in March. PT Eagle is a done deal.

Its first assignment is how to counter anti-palm oil lobby by Europe, especially France. France has 500 euros import tax on palm oil wef 2017 increasing by 100 euros each year until 900 euros.

So, forget about exports to Europe. Now we sell to China, India & Middle East.
We will buy our steel from China for our new railways and pay for it with palm oil.
We know how to grow oil palm and China knows how to make steel cheap ....
.. so sell your steel mill shrs and buy more plantation shrs...

Oil Palm Plantation is the only business where Malaysia is World Class...

CPOPC

No need to abort PT Eagle acquisition by Felda. Like in a 'Trump' deal, PT Eagle will reciprocate by buying 500M shrs of FGV at RM4.44 = USD 505M.
This can then a sensible JV & merger and enhances CPOPO (Collaboration of Palm Oil Producing Countries)....

The reason you replant is when the crop from your old palms cannot give you your target margins e.g. 20%. If the prices are high, even at 15 ton FFB per hectare is still good earnings. In W Africa, they only average 12 ton.

In a strategic plantation business, you should replant 'less' when the palm oil price is good (maximising profits in mature palms) and replant 'more' when the palm oil price is poor (because margins are low). Generate the cash now while the CPO price is >RM3000 and then accelerate your replanting in later years.

When prices are average, then you replant average 4% a year if you're going to fell the palms at 25 yrs old. These days, with technology and long aluminium alloy poles, the harvesters can harvest the palms to 30 yrs old.

So, don't push for replanting now while you generate good cash with high margins

Like MAS in Aug2014, if you need to do a quick, corrective & intensive surgery on FGV (on Directors, Mgt & restructuring, etc.) you need to delist and take it private else you would be burdened with shareholders' meetings, approvals, etc. The new Chairman of Felda is on the right track as next in mind he needs to integrate the operations of FGV and PT Eagle after the purchase to derive the synergy.

So, like MAS in 2014, prepare for the delisting offer (likely in Feb or Mar 2017) of 29% above the ave prices of past 3 months (i.e. Nov RM2.00, Dec RM1.65 & Jan RM1.75 = Ave RM1.80).

1st offer price should be RM2.32
Pls do not accept yet (Singapore Airlines offered 30% above current price to take Tiger Air private and later on, a 2nd offer of additional 10% to get the target 90% shareholding.

If we stick together, we shall wait for 2nd offer of RM2.55

AdCool. I know...I'm returning the bashing. I'm just wondering why they are still on it... is it becos the Edge Weekly was suspended or Malaysia Insider was closed down? Or is it their syndicate are playing the market?
My guess is that it is still about the Money... just like in the movie 'Die Hard' .

This week, the Edge is still chewing at Felda-FGV, especially at PT Eagle High on its NDPE policy (No deforestation, Peat & Exploitation).
This time is to quote and reproduce articles from NGO's reports on forest burning and orang utans driven off as PT Eagle expanded its plantations. You can see in the Edge the picture of orang utans was poorly doctored. It was actually a pic of feeding time of orang utans in a sanctuary that was made hazy to look like the burning forest was chasing them away. (You can see in the pic background of the man feeding the orang utans. There are green shoots here and there amongst the 'breathing roots' of forest trees. This is not a charred wasteland as mentioned). These guys have never been to a real jungle to know about exposed roots and burned wasteland. Sad.

The Edge is on dangerous territory here if it continues to take fake pictures from NGO's articles.

Is the Edge on an anti-oil palm lobby or an anti-Malaysia lobby? I hope some clear heads will prevail...

Shahrir Abdul Samad as the new Chairman of Felda is a very good move.... now you do not need a Steering Committee for Felda or FGV... also Isa in now canned or parked in the freezer.
We can expect smart & rational decisions from Shahrir as he was from the Econs Fac of MU of the late 60's and has a Swiss MBA from Lausanne as compared to Isa's MBWA (Management By Walkin' Around)...

On insurance clain by FGV of RM 59M:
Plantations can claim insurance against floods, fraud, theft, pilferages, etc. Pilferage of palm fruits & oil is very common in all plantations. Drivers of oil tankers pilfer palm oil by adding water to make up the load wt. Sometimes the staff stole the whole tanker of oil by faking goods received notes. It could be in the case of Felda Iffco in Turkey, no one was aware when some staff & Mgrs diverted ten 20-tonne tankers each mth elsewhere. After a year then they found missing 2000mt x 12 mths x RM2458/mt=RM 59M....
Now that CEO Zak has made a statement that the worst is over for FGV, we can now take up an insurance against his assurance.... so that we can a claim later in 2018.

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2115302?platform=hootsuite

If you have read this news on the insurance claim made by FGV on the Turkey Iffco fraud case... this confirmed that the fraud loss is limited to RM59M. On Nov26,2016 issue, the Edge Weekly has bashed FGV on the impairment loss up of to 300M...simply causing retail investors to lose money on unsubstantiated news reporting (and also using Radio BFM to add more fuel to the fire). The Edge Daily distributes freely and easily to Malaysian readers for some purpose...

Just be careful, the News Syndicates (The Edge, The Star & some PKR are in cahoots) to pepper you with silent persuasion to rattle your investment decisions..

With coming GE14, I'm not voting for PKR or Jib gang, maybe pick an Independent with Integrity......I know they're are very rare