Shahrir Abdul Samad as the new Chairman of Felda is a very good move.... now you do not need a Steering Committee for Felda or FGV... also Isa in now canned or parked in the freezer.
We can expect smart & rational decisions from Shahrir as he was from the Econs Fac of MU of the late 60's and has a Swiss MBA from Lausanne as compared to Isa's MBWA (Management By Walkin' Around)...

On insurance clain by FGV of RM 59M:
Plantations can claim insurance against floods, fraud, theft, pilferages, etc. Pilferage of palm fruits & oil is very common in all plantations. Drivers of oil tankers pilfer palm oil by adding water to make up the load wt. Sometimes the staff stole the whole tanker of oil by faking goods received notes. It could be in the case of Felda Iffco in Turkey, no one was aware when some staff & Mgrs diverted ten 20-tonne tankers each mth elsewhere. After a year then they found missing 2000mt x 12 mths x RM2458/mt=RM 59M....
Now that CEO Zak has made a statement that the worst is over for FGV, we can now take up an insurance against his assurance.... so that we can a claim later in 2018.

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2115302?platform=hootsuite

If you have read this news on the insurance claim made by FGV on the Turkey Iffco fraud case... this confirmed that the fraud loss is limited to RM59M. On Nov26,2016 issue, the Edge Weekly has bashed FGV on the impairment loss up of to 300M...simply causing retail investors to lose money on unsubstantiated news reporting (and also using Radio BFM to add more fuel to the fire). The Edge Daily distributes freely and easily to Malaysian readers for some purpose...

Just be careful, the News Syndicates (The Edge, The Star & some PKR are in cahoots) to pepper you with silent persuasion to rattle your investment decisions..

With coming GE14, I'm not voting for PKR or Jib gang, maybe pick an Independent with Integrity......I know they're are very rare

Why Kenanga add another 50M shrs to FGV-C16 on Dec20, 2016 instead of doing a new listing like C-23 or something. Something fishy going on ?

If you think you can buy plantation land planted with oil palms cheaper than USD16k per hectare, try n buy 37% of Kretam or RSawit at current share prices....

I am not sure these events are related should be investigated any connections whether there are speculators’ intent to manipulate the market.

 

On 26 Nov 2016, I read in the Edge Weekly that FGV has to make another 300M impairment loss... this has caused the FGV C-16 warrants to tank down >30% on Monday open (28Nov) and Kenanga Warrants sold most to hold only 5% at end of Nov 2016.

(FGV later clarified to say the RM200 million to RM300 million potential adjustments were related to the management’s plan to improve the group’s future income by undertaking a rationalisation plan for some of its assets. The FGV counters then recovered from its low)

Kenanga then made another new issue of 50M warrants listed on 20 Dec 2016 saying Bursa request liquidity in its warrants. As I see, there are sufficient liquidity with 100M.

Three days later, on 23 Dec 2016, The Edge Daily reported that EPF do not have any more holdings in FGV and again cause the FGV C-16 warrants to tank down 36% because of its implication that FGV is bad investment.
(FGV CEO later clarified and urging our stakeholders and the public at large to refer their questions directly to our respective organizations and not to be misled by social media and unsubstantiated online sources). .From annual reports,as shareholders we already know that EPF have been reducing its stake after IPO... end 2013(6%), end 2014(5%), end 2015(3%) & end 2016(0%). Why the damning news.

So, I am wondering whether there is any connections between people who report news and use of warrants to short the market.

Perhaps Bursa or SC need to start implementing heavy fines & penalties for those who manipulate the market and its derivatives like what the SEC do in US for market manipulation

MP Evans reject KLK new offer- US$14,100 per hectare

In an announcement to London’s Alternative Investment Market on Monday, it said Khong & Jaafar, a Malaysian firm that specialises in the valuation of oil palm estates and property. valued the group’s land assets at US$665mil (RM2.97bil), “which implies an equity value of £10.82 (RM60.25) per share.”

US$665M also cannot buy 32,000 hectares of plantings.

To buy plantation land cheap, go to West Africa e.g. Liberia, etc. For the next 20 yrs, it will be a non-starter (ask Sime, KLK, Wilmar, Feronia, etc)

To grow oil palms (for above 5 tons oil/hectare yield)... these are the only countries ... Malaysia, Indonesia and Papua,,,

Some positive pointers on Plantations :
Felda-Eagle deal will boost the cooperation of 2 largest palm oil producing countries (CPOPC Agenda). PT Eagle was formed in the takeover of Golden Eagle Holdings by BW Plantations to form the 3rd largest plantation group listed on IDX in 2014. Majority shareholders of BW Plantations are Rajawali Group (P.Sondakh) and the Widodo family (Jokowi). The President(Indo) and the PM(MY) have agreed that this tie would be good for the countries of Malaysia & Indonesia for the future of palm oil. This JV is a win-win. Felda have old palms & Eagle has very young palms (ave 6 yrs). Felda has the refineries & markets (13 countries) & Eagle has the land & workers for growth for next 20 yrs.... why stop this deal?

Higher CPO prices like what it is now (RM 3100 pmt) normally make the problems disappear, especially for plantation companies .... don't worry about the small issues ... a good CEO is what you need

Analysts usually make depressing assumptions ... like this one....

KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 11,2016): BIMB Securities Research has maintained its “Neutral” rating on the plantation sector and kept its crude palm oil (CPO) price assumptions of RM2,300/MT for 2016 (1H2016: RM2,200/MT – RM2,500/MT; 2H2016: RM2,100/MT – RM2,400/MT) and said it believes the discount gap to soybean oil will continue to narrow hence the slowing demand from major importing countries.
In a note today, the research house said macro issue by uncertainty of the world economy and low crude oil prices, may have resulted in heightened volatility in the commodity market and hence, going to dampen demand especially from China, EU and US.
“Maintain Hold on IOI Corporation Bhd (TP: RM4.25), Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (TP: RM21.04), Batu Kawan Bhd (TP: RM17.80) and TSH Resources Bhd (TP: RM1.95).
“Due to recent price run-up, we have a Sell on IJM Plantations Bhd (TP: RM3.20), Genting Plantations Bhd (TP: RM9.60), Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (TP: RM1.31) and Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd (TP: RM2.06) while a non-rated for TH Plantations Bhd (TP: RM1.17),” it said.

Inserted from <http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/bimb-securities-keeps-cpo-price-assumption-rm2300-2016>

In FGV, it is more about reducing the losses rather than trying to match the crop yields of UP or IOI. They have losses in Felda Iffco & other subsidiaries, losses in palm products on transit as well as in storage, and more losses in the field (for not harvesting frequently each month i.e. 3 x).
They supervise, they check, they look around but they don't see... not easy to see unless you know how.

CEO can say '... money is made with your feet (or feat) and that his new mantra is " What I expect, you can inspect " ... can it be done in Felda and to smallholders ?
I reckon, one way to start is to displace all those managers with waistline above 40 inch. If they have been walking, they wouldn't have such waistlines. Imagine them not walking when they are paid to walk, so severance is the consequence.

FGV need to just begin 2017 by reducing their losses listed above then maybe can improve CPO production by 20% (recovery from the wastage) + another 15% higher crop in 2017 (after-effect year of 2015/16 El Nino) + another 15% CPO price increase (to RM3500 by Feb)... then we can smile our way to the bank

From Fri's closing price to Today's price, CPO has inched up another 100 Ringgit to RM3182pmt.
Every RM100 increase in CPO price will add RM 150M to FGV's revenue...

Feb futures CPO closed at RM 2869 today...
any fool plantation company should be making profits at these prices

Icon, I like your focus on future earnings of stock that you want to buy in 2017.
What are about plantation stocks (e.g. FGV, Sime, etc) as CPO prices are rising and next year is a bumper crop after a drought year. Earnings are in USD (CPO prices correlated with USDMYR) and labour wages and some costs are in Ringgit.

Airasia may not be a good bet now as it is no longer a low cost carrier. Where got low cost when there are no low cost terminals in Malaysia? Where's the competitive edge?

17 Nov 2016 : Indonesia based Golden Agri Resources (GAR) reported 37% increase in CPO production to 501,000 tonnes in the 3rd quarter of its financial year (FY) covering Jul-Aug-Sept compared to the second quarter FY which recorded 367,000 tonnes....
If Indonesia can do it, so can Malaysia....

BMD CPO price still firm
Dec +161 3056 - 1683 lots
Jan +160 3054 - 11210 lots
Feb +162 3043 - 4890 lots
Mar +164 3032 - 2645 lots

FGV's CPO production in 2Q16 total 658,000mt and in 3Q16 total 782,000mt...
Do your Math...

Every RM100 increase in CPO prices will add RM150M to FGV's Revenue...
CPO price RM2500 in July 2016 and CPO price RM2800 in Nov 2016 ..
Do your Math...

you guys got Analysis Paralysis...
The story has changed... from "Now Everyone Can Fly ... Extra Long"
... to "Now Everyone Can Flee,,, Extra Fast"

MAS, TigerAir, NokScoot & Virgin Australia are now out of their coma and recovering.
With the low fuel prices, there are now more airlines and more aircrafts in the air ......
but just not enough passengers to fill the plane !

Tigerair Australia benefits from Indonesia AirAsia X withdrawal from Australia....
AirAsia’s share is dropping to 16% at the end of Aug-2016, when Indonesia AirAsia X pulls out of the Bali to Melbourne and Sydney markets. Indonesia AirAsia will continue to operate from Bali to Darwin and Perth.

See related report: Lion Group and Turkish Airlines could fill the void in Australia-Bali market as AirAsia X withdraws...

If you know each qtr and next qtr's business is getting challenging with 17 LCCs in SE Asia and 23 LCCs in NE Asia operating, you should withdraw too...

all Red lights from now.... 2Q16 Revenue, passengers carried & load factor all lower than last qtr ....tough going next 6 months and challenging biz environment... also no Forex gain expected in 2Q and 3Q....better pull out now and try the next round

The Chinese are paying $300.000 a year for foreign pilots...more than AAX's CEO salary...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-17/chinese-airlines-lure-expat-pilots-with-lucrative-pay-perks

After announcing the 2Q results (expected on 24Aug) of lower profits than 1Q (but certainly is double-better than last year), the Chairman will say that we had a 'challenging' quarter and had to do more frequent flights to get the 1 M passengers target. Also our load factor is down to 75% and our costs have gone up a bit. Going forward, we have to increase our pilots' wages as everybody in the region are buying more planes and slow in training the pilots for them.
When CEO says " ... the business environment is challenging, it means ... Houston, we have a problem..."

AAX to be taken private and re-list with JV Chinese in HK stock exchange.

The 4 rules of investing :-

1. Do constant research

2. Always trust your intuition

3. Do not make small investment else you are justing wasting your time
(make sure the reward is high enough to justify it)

4. Make good decisions with incomplete information


..... and how do make good decisions from incomplete info?

..... Go back to Rule No. 1

On AAX's 2Q16 results, we can estimate the Revenue from the RPK and number of passengers carried. Compared to 1Q16, the RPK is down 4.4% and passengers down 2.2% in 2Q16's operating stats. So, Revenue for 2Q is est down 6.6% to RM 906M from RM 970M in 1Q.

If op margin for 2Q is 11% (same as 1Q), the op income is est at RM 99M. If op margin is 15%, the op income can do RM 137M. (AirAsia and Ryanair has done 20% & 22% op margin respectively).

Forex gain is est at RM 90M as USDMYR is about 4.15

Financial cost is est at - RM 20M and Corp Tax at - RM 52M (mean from prev qtrs)

Therefore, NET Income can be RM 117M to RM 155M (depending on op margins of 11% or 15 %)

AirAsia X is resuming expansion in the Australia-Malaysia market, offsetting cuts which were implemented in early 2015 as part of a restructuring. The long haul low cost airline will operate 56 weekly flights between Australia and Malaysia in late 2016, matching its previous high of 56 weekly flights in late 2014.

AirAsia X is now looking at further expanding its network in Australia with several potential new destinations. Several new destinations are under consideration, as well as additional capacity to its four existing destinations – Gold Coast, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney.

Cuts at Malaysia Airlines have opened up a potential opportunity for AirAsia X to add more capacity to Australia’s four primary cities – where Malaysia Airlines has relinquished traffic rights. AirAsia X has already added capacity from Jul-2016 to the Gold Coast, where there are no bilateral restrictions, and is adding three seasonal weekly frequencies to Melbourne from early Dec-2016.

Revenue in AUD$ is good Forex gain for AAX....

A lesson on how to sink together !

If you can't fix your own Airline, let's fix the other Airline... then we can all share the same problems together... http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/08/05/malaysia-airlines-ceo-calls-for-uniform-passenger-charges-at-klia-klia2/

Next move by AirAsia is to move to KLIA1 if airport chrgs are the same... and the close down KLIA2.....
..... then we can all CONNECT so easy....

Let's us not make so much crap comments and to focus on sharing more info & data in this forum.

As a general rule, the most successful investor is the one who has the best information.... and could sense the change that is coming...

My 2 sen worth (to nudge AAX) :

Why you should invest in Airlines in 2016-2017 :
(1) A container truck burns 1 tonne of fuel in 50 hours. An Airbus A330 jet liner burns 2 tonnes of fuel in 1 hour.
(2) Jet fuel is 40-50% of its operating costs in Airlines. Jet fuel prices has dropped from USD88 in 2015 to USD 50 per barrel in 2016. Many Airlines has started hedging at USD42 for 2017.

#Better Outlook for AAX in 2016-2017

(1)A new, more disciplined approach to capacity expansion at AirAsia X has emerged, with a focus on new routes connecting existing AirAsia destinations and pursuing fifth freedom opportunities in markets under-penetrated by LCCs. Also, increasing ancillary revenue in its model.
In Australia the AirAsia X Group now has a more balanced approach and in China a expansionary market assisted by new e-visa to Malaysia. A new strategy for the Australian market is important factor of its turnaround plan.(Australia accounts for one third of AAX's seat capacity).
Long-term debt has declined and cash flow is improving.
Constant improvement in product and service innovation (self check-in bags, 80% on schedule, new routes & more flights, etc.)

(2)AAX expanded from 13 aircrafts in 2013 to 31 aircrafts at Aug 2016. This is a viable business for next 20 yrs or unless oil prices shoot above USD100 (which is unlikely with so much shale & oil sands reserves plus solar/wind installations, electric vehicles, etc.)
What the collapse in oil price has done to airline economics? The price collapse has made many routes that were less profitable or unprofitable to fly in the past now profitable to fly, causing an increase in demand for aircraft in markets where airlines are looking to exploit this.

(3)AAX or AirAsia is a "strong brand" and plays a strong role in low cost air travel in the Asia Pacific region. No strong competition (Airasia makes more money than MAB and has replaced MAB as Malaysia's top Airline).

(4)Demographics play a strong role.
Millenials travel more - must go on vacations often and work less. Low Cost carriers will be preferred mode of travel compared to Full-service Airlines in an austere Economy and cost-cutting by company travel. With internet & smartphones, flight bookings, boardings & check-ins will continue to improve and air travel by LCC becomes a breeze. An Airline business is a also a data processing business as well as a transportation business as they deal with wide spectrum of passengers' profiles,

#A New chapter for Airlines & Low Cost Carriers
“Today, the European market is actually defined by the low-cost model. If you want to make money, you have to compete against low-cost carriers.”
Watch Ryanair, EasyJet & Wizz In Europe and SouthWest in USA overtook its FSC peers in passenger numbers...

MAS has lost market share (domestic & International) to AirAsia & Malindo...
Eventually MAS have no way out except to merge with AirAsia or Malindo.... just like Uber China has no way out but merge with Didi Chuxing else too stiff a competition is a waste of billions

AmBank has a much better valuation than CIMB and also low exposure to Indonesia & Thailand. Poor yields in O&G, Plantation & Coal mines will continue to affect banks in general for next few qtrs...

MAS in turbulent times...changing aicrafts from B777 to A380, buy A350, buy B737Max, park A380, activate then deactivate B747.... http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/2016/07/27/malaysia-airlines-747-retired/#_ga=1.126265485.1642475969.1469670208

'Somethink' brewing in August. Just guessing this one... AirAsia sell 25% leasing unit to China Everbright, use the RM 1B to take AAX private under AAB, then another listing of AAB in Hong Kong (largest market in Asia). AAB will be a fully integrated aviation unit with short & long haul, Leasing arm & training centre for Airbuses. Most Asians will then be partners & shareholders.... no more issues with cash and trust

Shareholders will get 1 CIMB Niaga Tbk shr for every 6.39 CIMB shrs. CIMB low on Ringgit so give Rupiah to shareholders (1 Cimb Niaga shr worth 900 Rup).

On AAX huge losses in 2014-15,
AAX also had indigestion in 2014-2015 with 8 qtrs of losses....mainly 'self-inflicted' in a tough external factors of high fuel prices & USD. Remember QZ8501 crash, Directors/Maj.shrholders sold stocks in early 2015, GMT HK accounting chrgs, aircrafts sale & leaseback, Indo AA losses, licensing & widespread haze grounding flights in 3Q15, & in short just out of favour with investors ?
A new CEO and a 2 yr Turnaround Programme is now in place and working. Whatever it is, going forward, AAX will do well in 2016 vs 2015 and much better in 2017. For Malaysia, AAB passengers & load factor may have peak this year but Thailand still increasing.
AAX has more potential to grow ... So, where wud u put your money ?
Remember any fool's airline will make money in 2017 when WTI crude oil is $42

AAX capitalisation is RM 1.57 B and Enterprise value is RM 2.85 B.
SIA privatised Tigerair at its EV of S$1 B or RM 3 B in Jan this year.
Tigerair has 24 aircrafts and AAX has 29 Airbus 330s. Where wud you put your money?
Eventually, 'tis a good plan to privatise AAX at its EV then JV with Everbright China to list AAX, Thai AA & the Leasing unit as a new full integrated Asia Aviation biz in the HK Stock Exchange.
There are more millions of passengers from Thailand to China than from Malaysia to Australia..

While Malaysia Airlines continue to have Mgt indigestion as it is trying to morph into a hybrid Airline (premium seats in front & low cost at the back), AAX are cruising with cheaper fares & better service (whether front or back) plus barista coffee and hot hostesses.
Any fool airline will perform well when crude oil continues to linger at $45-50...

Tony, Ben & gang are on a road-show in London & Boston to brief Portfolio Mgs & Investors. If you got no story to tell, would you go on a road-show?
Prepare for August when the op stats & earnings are released.

Expected 2Q16 results to be alot better than 2Q15.

In the 1st half of 2015, AirAsia's marketing & sales affected because of Flight QZ8501 crash, MERS outbreak in SKorea in May, and earthquake in Kathmandu. As such 2Q15 recorded a very low load factor. Also, Adelaide and Nagaya routes halted.

In 2Q16, flight frequencies to China, Japan & Australia have increased compared to 1Q16, besides adding the new Auckland and New Delhi routes.

Not to worry so much about individual quarters of more or less profits as long as year 2016 overall will be a bumper year for AAX...

Vivocom has no crazy profit. It just bot over Neata (an aluminium parts company) and another real estate Co. So, latest Qtr showed higher revenue and profits compared to prevoius qtrs (after buying over other people businesses) . All paid for by issuing more shares. Instacom was listed in 2008 with 250M shrs - a company intalling telco towers. Now it is known as Vivocom with 2.5B shrs i. e. 10X more. You need to ask yourself.. . Has it got a sustainable business?

This is a better qtr than the previous one (4Q15) because :
1. Revenue has increased by 14%
2. Staff costs have reduced by 10M
3. Plus Forex gain, the Profit before Tax increased by 44%
4. This qtr paid Tax 39M, previous qtr had deferred Tax added

Next qtr will be better :
1. More Revenue from the new routes to Auckland and New Delhi
2, More revenue from increased flight frequencies introduced in April26 to China, Japan & Australia
3. Less staff at counter with web & mobile check-in
4. Same headoffice, same staff and same number of planes... just better Managed

I hope AAX & AirAsia Airlines are beginning to view themselves as data companies first and transportation companies second.... and less football, car-racing, hotels, phonecards, etc.

A profit should never be taken for the satisfaction of taking it...

Taking small profits in good investments and letting losses grow in bad ones is a sign of abominable bad judgement...

The Airline Industry is on a GROWTH path for 2016-2017 !
(1) India passenger traffic is growing at 20% for domestic and 8% for the International market
(2) China’s aviation outlook is more than just bright; it is arguably the strongest it has been in its history. Chinese aviation is heading for an upturn over the next 10 years as part of its “golden era”!
(3) Iran …from almost any angle, Iran represents a remarkable aviation growth prospect. Iran is the second largest economy (pop. 80M) of the Middle East and North Africa region – behind Saudi Arabia. The re-opening of Iran presents a compelling proposition…
(4) Indonesia has a strong domestic market (the World’s 5th largest domestic market) but weak International passenger growth because of the stalling of its Economy and weak Rupiah.

Look at the business that is likely to succeed & the Industry that is growing...

Do not jump in & out & make small investments, else you are just wasting your time !

AAX achieving RM 1B revenue for 1Q16 may be difficult as it would mean a 17% increase in revenue over 4Q15 because passengers traffic has only improved by 7%.

Look at Thai AirAsia 1Q16, revenue is up 16% when passengers number improved by 18%. Most likely AAX revenue for AAX 1Q16 is estimated at RM 922M as RPK has only increased 8%.
Forex gain is about 5-7% or RM 50M only. No deferred tax expected.

Thai AirAsia at 1Q16 managed a operating margin of 28%. If AAX can do a 20-25% operating margin, then net income for 1Q2016 is about RM 234M to 280M.

Do not dream to fly above 50,000 ft, just cruise at 40,000 ft is good enough...

As in the past, AAX and AAB quarterly result announcements are done on the same day....
1Q16 results on Friday 27 May 2016 after market has closed...comprende?

If AAX net income for whole year FY16 achieves 415M for its 4148M total shares, it equats tp eps 10 sen per shr or worth RM1. 20 share pricing for AAX. So, only need 104M net income for 1Q16.....but fuel savings alone for first qtr is already RM 100M. Still mulling? ITiots?

If AAX gets 2 qtrs of consistent profits, the CEO has got its act together esp on cost control and 5th Freedom routes optimised. Fuel and Forex gains are just external factors that add a lot extra $$$ to the profits for this year. Trading and traders are always there but the important point is that you are buying into a good business (i.e. the LCC business that will continue to replace the full service airlines). Why Thai Airways, MAB, SIA & Cathay Pac are losng passengers and its business? Now that AAX and AAB has been working to get market share in this region over the past 5 yrs..... it's a new chapter altogether.
Just you wait to see AAX go a Leicester.... (forget about QPR, that is history)

Airline Alliance and code sharing are for losers... as they have to share aircrafts and passengers.
See Nok Air losses http://centreforaviation.com/news/nok-air-losses-widen-in-1q2016-554881

Thai AirAsia Revenue up 16% - financial highlights for three months ended 31-Mar-2016:
1Q16 Gross profit: THB2489 million (USD69.8 million), +57%;
1Q16 Net profit: THB1832 million (USD51.4 million), +99%;

FY2015 Net Profit was THB1991 million. 1st Qtr 2016 Net Profit almost hit the Net Profit for the whole year of 2015. Astounding first quarter and a good year (2016) coming for Airlines ....