I am betting that the Rick horse can run faster than the ARA horse.
The ARA horse's track record not good when he was CEO of Media Prima and in EQUINAS..

Rick Ramli, ex-MD, Boston Consulting Group & MBA from NorthWestern University joins UMWOG as non-Independent & non-Executive director to represent PNB.... a welcome change. He's an expert to effect change... likely next CEO or Chairman.
A very good move by PNB....

Malaysia's Oil Rig Count (Report by Baker Hughes International)
Jan. 31, 2018 9.00
Dec. 31, 2017 7.00
Nov. 30, 2017 6.00
Oct. 31, 2017 4.00
Sept. 30, 2017 5.00
Aug. 31, 2017 4.00
July 31, 2017 6.00

This impairment is a paper loss only in the books but has no actual impact on the Company's cash balance or cash flow. Cash balance in UMWOG has in fact improves. Cash flow balance is very important as an on-going concern.

On the balance sheet, long-term assets are reduced by the impairments. A deferred-tax asset is created. Stockholders' equity is reduced as a result of the impairment loss included in the income statement.

Future net income will be higher as there will be lower asset value, and thus a smaller depreciation expense.
Future ROA and ROE will increase.

on UMWOG, the impairment loss on the balance sheet will create a 'deferred tax-asset'...
When a company incurs a tax loss, it can then carry forward the tax loss to reduce taxable income in future ?

Looking forward to :
(1)the reversal of impairment chrgs,
(2)the tax rebates from 2017 Q1-Q2 losses,
(3) the improving profits each qtr as oil price firms up !

I hope TF will add more Airbuses for AirAsia & AAX as each can burn 4000 tonnes of fuel a year.

22/02/2018 11:26

In Feb17, before 4Q16 results release, impairments were made in case of need to sell more rigs.
In Apr17, Naga1 was sold at scrap value of RM 1M.
Naga1 is a 40 yr old subsea rig acquired in 2005 on a 50% JV with Japanese firm.
Question is whether it has been fully depreciated and, if not, the 2016 Impairments could cover it.
If no rigs were sold in 2H2017 or going to be sold in 2018, why impair?
Where is the loss when there are no rentals of rigs... only financial costs ?

AAX results... need to read with some salt !

If you look at their 'Maint & Overhaul costs' for the past qtrs, the 4Q17 qtr showed only RM75M , whereas in Q1, Q2, Q3 it was RM 174M, 169M and 234M and the average Maint & Overhaul cost for each qtr in 2016 was RM 156M.
So, if the average Maint &Overhaul cost in 2017 is about RM 170M, then 3Q2017 was overprovided by RM 64M in advance for 4Q2017 costs. The Maint & Overhaul cost for 4Q2017 ar RM 75M plus the RM64N from Q3 is still RM30M short.
In summary, with Forex gain of RM30M and 'under-provision' of RM30M, AAX net profit is actually RM 20M....

If they say they can maintain & overhaul in 4Q17 at half the cost they had in 2016 of ave RM156M, then I would think twice about flying AAX...

Impairment provisions made in 2015-17 by oil companies can be fwd looking to expect some write-backs (or reversal of impairments) in 2018-19 if the oil biz improves...
It's all depends on the OIL PRICE...

...the same reasons that oil price felled in 2014 would likely be the reversed reasons for oil price to firm in the coming months of 2018...

Impairments are likely done or will be done by Q4, 2017... if they continue to impair when oil prices are above costs, then those are the 'failed' companies to avoid.

For some 60% of shareholders (like PNB, etc) who had the IPO shrs @RM2.80, their TP is 95 sen (after Rights issue).... those who bot at 90 sen when it's cheap, their TP is 46sen.... those who bot at 70 sen, their TP is 40 sen...and so on...

Floating storage in Asia declining. Reuters reports that there are about 15 supertankers of oil floating off the coast of Singapore and Malaysia, which is down a bit from November but down by about half from mid-2017. The data is a sign that the oil market is tightening...

Oil price was at its lowest in Jan 2016, so generally all oil companies like Sapnrg, MHB, UMWOG, etc rightly so provided for Impairments at end 2015 and end 2016.
Oil price has appreciated some 40% since Jun17 to Feb18 and if any oil company still make more impairments in 4Q17 when oil biz is getting better, the CEO should be removed.
MHB (Malaysia Marine&HE) has done with impairments, has tax credit in 4Q17 for previous losses and has started giving dividend.... so no need to whine about oil share price daily as the oil biz is already recovering... relax and enjoy the volatility...

Daim Zainuddin did mentioned that he only dabbled in stock market for golfing money...

Brent Oil has finished its correction and is heading to the upside of the channel.
Could hit into 73-74 area....

PNB now holds 4.4 B shrs or 53% of total 8.32 B shrs...

If the oil price hits $75/bbl, it may be good for Gov't to take UMWOG private and park it is an integral biz of Petronas ... all these oil services companies are just stressing up our banks....

Do not to be concerned whether PNB convert 1.2 B shrs of i-RPS to Ordinary Shares to sell down or not... as if they want to sell, PNB could sell from the 3 B shrs that they hold.

In Oct 2017, the additional Rights Issue of 1.2B shrs were beyond the 65% of PNB-ASB can hold as not to trigger a MGO (mandatory general offer) that were converted to I-RPS (non-voting shrs) (as PNB agreed to subcribed to all excess Rights shrs not taken up).

What's important here is UMWOG has achieved its cash call of RM 1.8B to reduce its gearing. UMWOG is now out of ICU & HDU (high dependency unit) like in a hospital and recuperating with all 7 rigs utilised and with the oil price firming to support hire rates, it can recover very fast.....

...Judging from the upbeat outlooks from Halliburton and Schlumberger, this year could finally mark the end of the downturn for the oilfield services business.

Oilprice.com

Blackrock started buy in 4Jan 2018...
BlackRock Fund Advisors
AS OF 04 JAN 2018
6.57m 0.09%
BlackRock Advisors (UK) Ltd.
AS OF 04 JAN 2018
5.59m 0.08%

Sometimes, I wonder whether the PNB Fund Mgrs have it all figured out?....
from Jan 8-11 they sold off 180M shrs at 46 sen to gain some 10 sen (46-36 sen) or RM 20M from the sale...from this they trigger a big sell-off to 36 sen and if they are holding 3.19B shrs, PNB would have reduced their capitalisation in UMWOG by RM 319M (3.19B shr x 10sen)....
... it's just like the slow cat biting its tail...

Hammer or no hammer, Fajar has already gain RM 8M from its PA investment...
Fajar Directors should sell all PA-W shrs next week to give out another 1.5 sen dividend to shareholders for Chinese NY...besides helping old friends, maybe time to give to shareholders

Every 1 sen increase in PA Resources, Fajar's profits increase by 1.5M (152.5M shr x 1sen).
Add the free PA-W of 78.3M shrs, already got free RM 3.5M, so new investment in PA is astounding for just 2 weeks work, much better than rail or paragon projects .... suggest share investment as another core business if got so much funds, else give dividends every qtr to shareholders...

no need for so many subcontractors for rail works, maybe CCCC just take a 20% stake in Fajar... to get the job done.... Everyone happy... BN got Chinese votes, CCCC got local partner that you can trust (overseas Chinese)...Jib got Pahang developed... China gets goods faster via Kuantan-Klang rail link to Europe. All other ports can close... just keep Klang and Kuantan ports.

@Ming, maybe Fajar got good inside info on PA biz, afterall both got same director Wong. Fajar main shareholder and PA main shareholder were both main shareholders of Hirotako before. You know, old boys club. I've got old boys club too but we only do coffee.
Fajar invest in RIghts issue in PA in 2012 not wise as solar biz in PA eventually folds... Fajar invest in Rights in Dec 2017 is much better... as PA is now back to basic core biz... aluminium smelting

Fajar's investment in PA Resources in the money today. Net gain about RM 3.3M.

what CNY got to do with timber production? Not many Malaysian Chinese left can operate the chainsaws and bulldozers, only equipment they use now is their handphone...

if you rename it 'SAPura No eneRGy' or SAPNRG, what can you expect ?

The ESOS for Directors & Executives is a 'downer'. This is not consistent with creating long-term shareholder value and employees' loyalty as it was meant to be, rather it has been a means for executives to cash out in its first year. BOD should set a minimum exercise period of 1.5-2 yrs after granting ESOS. As in current scheme, it does not retain employee nor develop talent for succession. It is just a one-sided, risk-encouraging and a short-term incentive plan.

The BOD needs to be thoughtful and come up with a long term incentive plan for both employees and shareholders. If cannot think, pls do not request for re-election. This is just miserable !

There should also be a 'closed window' of 3 wks before financial result or other major announcement where ESOS are not allowed to be traded. Do we have a Compliance Officer in Fajar? It is again miserable for Directors to trade during 'closed window', taking advantage of Bursa's Exemptions rules.

Fajar-Beulah JV's Paragon development has been exceptionally well-received with 90% of the project’s 277 apartments being snapped up during the pre-launch campaign. Launched in April 2017.

Negating oversupply concerns in Melbourne’s CBD, Paragon pre-launch sales totaled $175 million showing the phenomenal interest in this unique development at a heritage site.

Featuring Australia’s first indoor high-rise forest, purchasers were keen to swiftly buy within this exclusive enclave located in the heart of Melbourne.

I wonder which qtr would Fajar credit its share of the 10% downpayment on Paragon apartments?

A need to convince Directors & Mgrs not to dispose off their ESOS share options and diluting total shares. They need to exude confidence & loyalty to stay invested as options do not expire until 2019. To trade and to take small, short-termed profits is simply miserable for Directors.
The AGM is on 30 Nov... if not interested in growing company, pls don't ask to be re-elected...

If there is negligence identified in any fire incident, the Insurance Adjuster will reduce claim accordingly. If doesn't mean a full compensation if a fire destroyed an asset unless a fire is started by someone's else building next door. If a fire started in your building, that means there is negligence or arson because Mgt is supposed to prevent a fire from happening. This is the second fire incident in Liihen.

today CPO (Jan) price is RM2815. Selling ahead estates' Q4 production at these prices should wrap up FY17 results bounteously...

Immigrant labour working in plantations are generally piece-rated and based on CPO price.|
As CPO price rises, harvesters earnings will increase accordingly..

one of the main objectives of ESOS is to align employees' (& directors) interests with that of shareholders... it does not seem to be the case ... or is it that its Directors & Senior Mgrs are just not loyal and are just too greedy to continue disposing their share options?
ESOS is supposed to be a long term proposition, and not within 6 mths!

For this year, it should be much better as FFB production and CPO prices almost similar for Q3 & Q2... PK prices are better in Q3, so gross profit from estates maybe about 10M. Mill should make more profit with only 10% processing margin this year. Power plants now only in working order.
By Q3 results, net profits for 9 mths should exceed the 12 mths of year 2016.
If not, Mah's horse cannot run...lah!

Last year in 2016, Cepat was disastrous.... had impairments from Indon venture, oil mill and biogas plant just struggling....
I wonder whether Cepat has replaced those responsible for the Indon fiasco and those who are unable to fix the mill....
The plantation and oil mill business is is a very simple business and the the Malaysians are already World's Best.After more than 17 years, the plantation should be a cash generating machine... so what gives?

If this year Q3 & Q4 results can net 13M & 14M profits, then total for year net profit 44M.
This will match the Cepat's best year in 2011 when CPO price was RM3200 pmt.
Mill & Power plants can continue to increase its profits of 3M each per qtr with efficiency and capacity utilisation... Good prospects for Cepat! December dividends coming...

As in MRT project, Fajar usually get to contruct the station buildings... so after they have done the LRT3 rail structure... the buildings will be completed last in 2019-2020

1st half 2017 profits already 75% of previous full year 2016
2nd half 2017 profits with higher production & prices expected to be 20- 25% more than 2016
Overall, 2017 may exceed 2016 net profits by 40-50%
...whatever, it's exceedingly good for this plantation stock

Significant increase in US wooden furniture imports....
https://www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com/significant-increase-in-us-wooden-furniture-imports/

Q1 EPS was 12.3 sen/ shr. At factory site visit after AGM, Mr Chua said Q2 earnings more than Q1... that was the confidence...

Expect 6 sen/shr for 2nd Interim dividend (19 Aug earnings call) as EPS for Q2 is more than 12 sen, else will vote against prt sale of factories sites fr directors...

What's getting interesting here is that the volume of daily trade is improving after Ty-Koon and owner Chua have sold down their shrs. When foreign ownership of shrs increases, the local fund mgrs will follow later.

Liihen & Air NZ were on par 3 wks ago at 3.22, now AirNZ has moved to 3.55 as foreign ownership of shrs increases... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11890005

The best part is Liihen have better metrics than AirNZ on EPS n Dividends...so just wait until our investors wake up soon to export counters improved earnings...

No Good News for these stocks (of soft investor interest in general ) :

1. Lotte Chemical Titan IPO public issue underscribed (35% not taken up) even after IPO price reduce by RM 1.50
2. Edra Energy IPO has a call to public by PKR MP not to take its new share issue
3. Kumpulan Jetson RM919M construction job revoked on misrepresentation allegation
4. Spring Gallery Bhd RM176M contract in Perling,Johore called off
5. Petronas Dag selling off LPG gas business in Philippines for USD124M
6. Texhem (of Sushi King) shuts down Tim Ho Wan (One Michelin star) outlets
6. IWC & IWH merger extended deadline to Sept (need more time for talks)...
Who talk2 Who? Hoo n Hoo?

Good News in Defensive stocks like Liihen :

1. Malaysia's exports for May growing est at 20+% yoy - double digits growth for 6 mths since Dec 2016...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/malaysia-exports-likely-rose-22-in-may-poll-2017-07-05?mg=prod/accounts-mw
2. Malaysia's ban of rubberwood exports wef 1 July2017 will benefit wood furniture manufacturers to improve raw material availability and reduce cost of production
3. Ringgit losing strength as crude oil price retraced below USD50/barrel. USDMYR may head lower to 4.40
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ringgit-seen-sliding-440-against-us-dollar-3q
4. US Economy still growing at moderate pace and this bodes well for Malaysia's export sales

My calc guess is that by Fri, Mr Koon will be done with Liihen shrs.
Next he will start selling Sendai... or is it someone has already started the big sale of Sendai on Mon.
Tomorrow, the seige n squeeze of Qatar starts as deadline for negotiation is over....or maybe gulf war redux

19 June 2017: Ong Ka Chuan: “The availability of raw materials in Malaysia, especially with the emergence of rubber wood, has been instrumental in the development of the Malaysian furniture industry.”

http://www.thestar.com.my/metro/community/2017/06/20/strengthening-the-furniture-industry-threeday-fair-serves-as-platform-to-promote-products-for-export/

To the Chairman BOD,
At the recent AGM in June, you mentioned that Directors fees have increased because of an additional Director. As Mr Koon is no longer a major Shareholder, wouldn't it be appropriate to reduce one director, namely Mr Chan, who was appointed because he is Mr Koon's bro-in-law.
Also, we the shareholders do not agree to any investment in JAKS as such Mr Chan (a consultant for Power Generation in Myanmar), this appointment is a now irrelevant....

On Malaysia's ban on rubberwood exports, this will benefit Liihen & Hevea as rubberwood is their main raw material for manufacturing.
Latitude & PoHuat have 80% & 60% respectively of their revenue from their Vietnam subsidiaries and their business may be affected... so, wood furniture exports from Vietnam & China will continue to decline

KYY probably has about 2.5M shrs +-10%. I guess he has sold some 3M on June 15...as someone bot 3M at 3.23