Ozzie 75...

I think is the best investor here is Optimus...JP Morgan wants to hire him...he is the only one who sold and exited fully two weeks back...bravo...

The ringgit fell against the USD so did the other regional and Euro/Aussie/Yen/RMB...but as you would know the intrinsic value of any currency is its value as a medium of exchange...against another currency it will go up or go down...ringgit fell more against the USD because of our dependence on Oil Revenue...now with oil at USD 60 our balance of trade will be skewed...and the ringgit will stay soft for awhile...all not within our grasp....BUT as a nation we are not bankrupt...our nation has seen worse hardship and rebounded...

like every economic disturbances stability will eventually return...in the short term oil price should stabilise at USD 80 and ringgit may improve slightly to 3.40....market will find its level and correct itself....I believe analysts will say today was an oversell..as people are guided by indices as it closed to 1700...rubbish will stay rubbish...good stocks will return to its true value...you should pick your jewels from the dirt..

In my case, I don't know whether to cry or to laugh...I sold some of my index stocks and went into an ACE counter...though in a way it is a saving grace as no new money went into the market BUT I should not lie and say I sold ALL of my blue chips and sold my ACE and waiting to reenter the market...Like Optimus, I would have locked in huge profits but now only some ...However I will not yield to a hypocritical provocations by our friend here..

The thing I am most disappointed of is no words coming from BNM or our national leaders as to how they will gap our fiscal budget in 2015...maybe they are waiting for oil price to stabilise...I really want to hear from them...

Meanwhile, I know I have to wait and bite the bullet...the time-lines are approaching...this is no natural disaster nor a war...it is just an economic phenomenon..sentiments should return..

Opimus....as long as you are in stocks and shares you can feel the bloodbath...your pains and our pains...all similar..

Orion is still here...holding and deciding when to go in...10 sens drop is nothing at all...the rebounce will be hard too...

Economic factors will change..no point fighting the sentiments..just watch in silence...nothing to shout about...my timelines are on route....

When oil price drops it is good for all...but because our sovereign debts were secured on our oil revenues...with the low prices our ability to service our national debts & to finance our fiscal budget which is based on deficit budgeting is a suspect ..this obviously affected the confidence on ringgit which in turn caused the negative sentiments on our Bursa...

That is the bad news...the consolation is everything will find its own level... ifca did not plunge but corrected & consolidated..
my belief that IFCA will develop into a good MB company...The good news is that various timelines for IFCA present themselves for us...

1. Window dressing towards mid & end of the year
2. End of Q4 & rumours of profits achieved for MB
3.Confirmation & release of Q4 followed by relating by analysts
4.Declaration of dividends
5. Announcement of promotion to MB....

Meanwhile ...wait la..& Hope...

pdtan...good news on your bullish signals...I am looking at nomanland's FVE...all lines are pointing downwards....the Bollinger Bands are not constricting...all most likely due to the general market sentiments...the only way to kick start this is to have a very special news (fundamentals) otherwise we have to wait for timelines spurts...1st major one should be first week of January...end Q4

I am still in this counter and considered lucky to have restructured my share portfolio and put more weight on this penny stock...at least saved me from a blood bath and I am still in money

SIva68...ditto...

Nomanland...

My belief is that the green & brown lines represent longer period & also happen to be higher volumes period have started to descent faster as the slopes representing the falling oil prices...as the market stabilises & accept the new price...The descent will slow....The selling out by foreign funds has also slowed including EPF...Some will return soon to punt as some ppl think d market is oversell...

IFCA is holding well in all sense of the word...as Q4 ends the climb should starts...

This is my opinion & is not a recommendation to buy or sell...The market is generally weak..It needs better sentiment to lift it..fundamentals aside...

Nomanland...I check the FVE Fibo against the KLCI overlay...I see the the lines decoupling from KLCI...probably the market feels that IFCA has a FX earning and can be categorised with the glove makers...( no costs and USD earnings)..

I also see that the Brown and the Green lines continue to be narrow and may even merge...this could be the profile change of the substantial shareholders being more stable and longer term..

The blue line is abit worrying as it continue to dip but the red is hooking up.... I am looking at the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands together the Standard Deviation...and I believe at its narrowest point the counter will kick start itself...the question is what will kick start it...definitely not the price of Brent Crude...it has to be the entry of another big investor like EPF or even a credible foreign funds...

I thin the elliot waves are quite consistent and the heart beats are reflect the general market...

I am quite interested in the culmination of less warrants in the market place as a result of the conversion...whether the warrant will lead the mother shares this time in volume and price???

Generally the TA is nothing more than a statistical albeit historical display without a real assurance of the future...For me and some of the guys here...it is still the fundamentals that we are following...it is the profits for Q4 and total for 2014 and the dividends...and the stabilisation of the shareholders profile with a smaller free float....and the move to MB...so we are invested and we wait...and you wait to invest...same side la bro...

Nomanland....check the Bollinger bands again...Each time they narrowed..It jump start an escalating effect....I saw two previous narrowing & expect another this week...

Posted by nomanland > Dec 6, 2014 01:43 AM | Report Abuse

Orionpacific, the Chart 4xFVE, each of FVE graph contains Bollinger Band(purple color), all FVE below the middle band.

so the Bollinger bands is below the standard deviation...is this the end of the w or the beginning of a breakout..as far as I can see there is no M shape at the moment...do you see a breakout on monday subject of course to the general health of the Bursa...

I am focusing on your red line as this is super active and then to have an impact on the daily prices..very short term...other than the hook up I also believe it is tied to the liquidity of the counter...as the shares get locked out the free float will decrease and to support high volume the oscillator would show high number...

ozzie...GST is for Business to consumers...a consumption tax...I don't think trading on Bursa would be zero rated...

Nomanland....I hv info on new institutional investors...this cud explain & result in stabilisation of green & brown lines...

Also consider these facts against the brown & blue lines that the free float shares (volume) may be reduced tremendously & the oscillator may increase..

I m out now & cannot look at your new chart...

I hv a very strong hunch that nxt week is going to be a good week...

Sori about your O & G counters. ..they will cone back...maybe nxt quarter..

Nomanland.....Tristar to form at the bottom with a star missing....sound like Christmas coming soon and we the Wise Men is tracking towards the new beginning....

too bad tomorrow is Saturday...anyway rest well guys for your presents will reveal before you next week...I think ??

Posted by nomanland > Dec 5, 2014 07:25 PM | Report Abuse

Orionpacific, look at it carefully. Place trend line at LOW LOW on those brown/green.
Save the images and zoom on it.

The question is what do you see....

Me ...I see the brown and green lines copulating merging into one line like they are having sex....like pleasure time is here???..Is it the longer term supply has been absorbed leaving only volume at the fast short terms players...

Are you saying that the accumulation has almost ended and there is a good chance of a run if market is good...??? tell me ..tell US...

TQ Nomanland....Looks like all coloured lines turning a distinct U turn...albeit still in a depressed stage...against the KLCI..IFCA is definitely bucking the trend and the lines are starting to have a mind of its own...

By next week hopefully with 5 clear trading the signs will be clear...the message is so crystal clear...we are in the Q4 and the profits are coming through...IFCA internal system is busting with so much activities and they need lorries to cart back the cash retrieved from receivables ( just going overboard for Calvin Tan's benefits) that they have armoured cars and armed guards in the premises..

Come Monday...pdtan and Nomanland we open a bottle of Dom Perignon to cock up distractors...

Nomanland & pdtan . .as I said last evening there is a definite small w forming but unfortunately Friday came too quickly...but the good thing is no bloodbath despite the oil price dropping...I remain cautiously optimistic but would love a strong asserted upward lifting of the right arm of the W...and to go on a 2-3 sens rise for the 5 days with good volumes...my wish for Christmas is for Ifca to beat the KLCI...

today has been very quiet...one of the lowest volume with hardly any price movements...would this be the formation of the W.... against the falling KLCI..I wonder..

having reread the Nov review by CIMB again I found that I have missed two matters of great importance which I would like to share with those who are investors like me:

1. the Q3 results were not from GST assignments....GST is expected to be in Q4 when the upgrading and new contracts will speed up as people realise that there will be no deferment .....this will bring in new revenues..along with the work in progress of about RM 38 mil in the books...


2.All revenues are highly leverage meaning that the fixed costs has been booked in the early quarters giving rise to almost 70sens profits for every Rm 1 of sales.

There is no change of the call on the counter and the TP remains at 1.05... However I must add that no counter is sheltered in the case of falling crude prices... I can only add that we be optimistic but also be cautious...even though I tell myself the effect of the falling crude cannot be worse than what it is now...crude must move back up soon...otherwise OPEC itself will be a defunct organisation....I am cautiously optimistic...

I believe next week would be a better week as we absorb all bad external news this week...

nomanland.....after 20.11.14, the red line shows reasonable size volume with minimal price variance...this is a divergence which showed the accumulation and distribution..the decent vide the linear line was quite decent until 1.12.14 where the one day drop was very dramatic...

...but if you interpose the same linear with the KLCI...you may actually see another divergence... where for instance other than 1.12.14 where the declined was pretty sharp but relatively less so for IFCA ...i.e the drop in price though in line with the volume traded is less than the drop in KLCI...this could be tied to the non Oil and Gas sector that IFCA is in...this could mean that it is protected by being in a different industry but nevertheless affected by the hit on the whole economy..

now there is this hook up with a pseudo albeit small w forming...same volume but with a small marginal increase in price but if interposed with the KLCI which went down...it also shows a 2nd divergence....the question now is whether this is a real sign or a trap...

even if tmrw the price goes up another 2 sens with reasonable volume it is not a convincing rebounce...unfortunately tomorrow is Friday and we still need another two days to be certain that this counter is an exception to the whole market...

why don't you interpose the index to the FVE and see the results...


So sorry the folks here are getting frustrated with you...they think all this mumbo jumbo does not tell them whether it is safe to buy or to exit quickly...

nomanland.....after 20.11.14, the red line shows reasonable size volume with minimal price variance...this is a divergence which showed the accumulation and distribution..the decent vide the linear line was quite decent until 1.12.14 where the one day drop was very dramatic...

...but if you interpose the same linear with the KLCI...you may actually see another divergence... where for instance other than 1.12.14 where the declined was pretty sharp but relatively less so for IFCA ...i.e the drop in price though in line with the volume traded is less than the drop in KLCI...this could be tied to the non Oil and Gas sector that IFCA is in...this could mean that it is protected by being in a different industry but nevertheless affected by the hit on the whole economy..

now there is this hook up with a pseudo albeit small w forming...same volume but with a small marginal increase in price but if interposed with the KLCI which went down...it also shows a 2nd divergence....the question now is whether this is a real sign or a trap...

even if tmrw the price goes up another 2 sens with reasonable volume it is not a convincing rebounce...unfortunately tomorrow is Friday and we still need another two days to be certain that this counter is an exception to the whole market...

why don't you interpose the index to the FVE and see the results...


So sorry the folks here are getting frustrated with you...they think all this mumbo jumbo does not tell them whether it is safe to buy or to exit quickly...

Tq Nomanland...will look at it and share reading...can you give me a headstart on what you see...is there a W formation or just a straight line to the 3rd peak..as pdtan saw an imminent peak from his "3 peaks Domed house" ( I will google to understand this concept later)....my view is any consensus from two people using different methods would be heartwarming...I am not saying which is the better...I always felt that price volume are essential variables which also take into account of sentiment..that short term red line is interesting...e.g high volume and price drop means loss of confidence or external factors having an effect on general market...

No sweat Pdtan...open a bottle of Dom Perignon with you...we celebrate...

pdtan...don't have your chart to comment on your disposition....however if yours is to predict the long term track/direction of IFCA and if the triple peaks show a higher peak at each interval... I support your expectation...as most of us here are looking at the medium term new peak...in fact given the current scenario most of us would be most happy if it is tracking towards 0.89 not necessary to reach the peak in the next 5 days...

FYI Nomanland short term red line showed turbulence ( many failed W formation) where it ended in the negative zone but trying to make its journey back to positive from a depressed stage...in other words they are journeying in the same direction but taking a different speed.....

Have a safe and speedy journey IFCA...

Alpha 。。。。。 my observattion here is that it only take less than Rm 8 millioin to prop up the counter。。。don't need big resources especially there are less selling。。。。

perhaps IFCA should put forward a share buyback resolution at the next AGM。。。espcially when they have so much cash。。

EPF & other local funds always sell from Nov to show profits sold to buy back...we call this windows dressing...by 15.12 all on Christmas mood..everything else is situational...

Calvin...don't kid yourselves with your misreading skills....lol

Watch the space...BNM will take some measures to offer safeguards...local funds will if not already supporting...

Calvin...funds raising by VT...run...run...he wants your money...

Nomanland...Ya..man you're right..not in our hands...

Always _steady..have to wait for 2014 annual report to be sure..not really important at this stage..calculation is based on 2013 profile & percentage of holding..

I will not sell my portfolio & will hold..hope this is not a bottomless pit..

Nomanland....TQ for your praise..don't really deserve it...but coming from you I believe it is an honour...

Crude will come back to 80-90..and everything will be ok...OPEC is sending a message..Shale oil not viable...soon countries will feel the cold wintry winds...politics has a play in the price of crude..It takes politics to restore stability...

It is still back to sentiments & fundamentals...a good company will not go down...IFCA has the profits in the bags...and with low fuel...The business will trump...I am still one of top 30 substantial shareholders...have to be optimistic..

first it is the oil price and our economy now it is our ringgit..foreign funds exiting in droves affecting most of our blue chips...

IFCA will be flat for a short while...

Nomanland...the W cannot be formed..another ``````` " \" in the image...more like a M instead...flat..Also retreating from the 0...

ppl have to wait a little bit longer..

Nomanland...

TQ for bothering to draw out the lines for me.....my hindsight analysis are as follows:-

From 17.11 there was a small W forming ( after the selling on news and the funds starting to buy) but failed to succeed because of NSC uncertainty ( only the red line affected).....

Free fall from 24.11 ( sharp red line) to 26.11 (Friday) also a small `W forming but failed because of the Monday due to the collapse of Oil price ( external factor)..I believe there were buying because my friends were buying big on Thursday and Friday...

big upper cut on 2.12 and today steady on big volume...both consolidation and accumulation.....if it doesn't fall today and is against the index... I believe wedge or W formation will start and form base to move up....each \ will be smaller than the / in the W...

Generally the 3 other coloured lines are stable and above 0 ...shows that volume and price were mainly due to traders and weak investors.....and there is something to look for in the near medium term...

this is a novice reading of the new chart you gave...

Nomanland....Tq mate...white hairs I already have some....but there is no stops to learning....will trace your tutorials for greater understanding...

I think the red line is indicative of daily strength & the 3 days drop were special events that graphs cannot predict...If not for the oil thingy the drop could hv curve up earlier or not drop to the negative 30 line...

My thoughts..

Nomanland...on your colour line..the red line is the only one which showed " \" a super fall to well below 0 ...-30+...this is the short term fast line for period 13..this steepness describes on the fall for the week - The Monday was a super fall that took this FVE to well below 0....before the Tues "upper cut"..could I call this an unusual event ( Oil price + NSC) which brought the short term line down and fast...

The red line is obviously a \ and is a bear....but the other 3 are also \ but above the 0 line...what does this mean...accumulating ??

Nomanland...by cycles I really mean the divergence...if you can see the potential change of direction please give a shout...don't expect you to be right all the time but a heads up will be good...I take your recommendation on the "being too optimistic" advice and will take heed..but really the upward progression of the price has to be tied to the performance ( fundamentals as held by Ozzie) which we believe is already in the bag...

I will concentrate on the accumulation to see where it will lead me..I hope the Upper Cut thingy is not one off...let's see what happen tmrw....Thanks again...

Nomanland....you are the first chartist who is very ethical & not full 9 himself...I salute u Bro....we can only accept statistics as clues...but some signals may be red herrings & supported by events...In IFCA ...The charts can help you to trade...I want to be able to predict better the cycles...But really we know it's upward destination...

Nomanland...TQ Bro...I actually read the introduction bit and like the theory and the variables you use to form your opinion...I thought I used it right but my three days purchases ( bottom fishing) were off by 1 day...if I had not carry out the Thursday buy and put it off to Monday or give them different weights, I would have made a killing...will give it another look...

For that matter ....Thanks for being on our side

Ozzie...what is the significance of the colour...I see green now...is it going green all the way ? how about that upper cut...will it follow through and give us a knock out blow ??

please educate us...

Nomanland...TQ for your update...

The chart shows a "Upper cut" hooking up the trend..... can you compare the chart to the overall KLCI that IFCA is bucking the general trend.....can your chart tell me whether the counter is in an overbought situation....can I draw a straight line across upward or is it still very "iffy"....

Hope your crystal ball can give us some more positive short term news....

Bruce....doessn't matter who has more. you and I can be on the top 30 substantial shareholders list....mine is enough to be able to get calls from Ken and to call him.....

Already `steady...I do...bought till I am a substantial shareholder...

With Belief comes confidence...with conviction comes guts...I had it all yesterday...whoopee.

Optimum. ..go ahead & Q at 55 sens & Warrants @45 sens..no problem at all...If and only if and also when the cow can jump over the moon & time stands still....you may join us in our celebration in 2015 ....only 1 month away...

Calvin...why do we have to cross swords on a quiet Sunday afternoon?..

Just watch the space & see for yourselves...Asiason is not IFCA..Ken Yong is not John Soh. ...

Singapore aunties are not the funds we r attracting...Philip Securities will lead the ride from the causeway...

I m off to a quieter hideout from you...

Rikki. ...that is a very safe bet & foregone conclusion...

rikki...right bro...Q4 and the final 2014 accounts is up to them to decide...could be so much that the dividends would be more than expected too...20% of declared profits...IFCA will Fly us to the moon and let us be among the stars...hahaha

Hi Ozzie....Singapore funds is a no "brainer"....HK is too busy with the Shanghai through train.....but i am sure somebody will be thinking of a China/HK Listing for IFCA China operation too...

the bags are full..IFCA is ready to go..leaving on a Jet plane...hahaha

Hi man..Good if you think so ......I am an Optimist..

On this Sunday afternoon...let me try to share my experience delving in stocks and shares...

The scene is no difference from any performing counter which is said to be under performing .....I have seen Public Bank, Perlis Plantation, IOI ( all undervalued and foreign funds selling )storming through the 1997 depressing years on their organic performance..

After an enhanced and sterling performance by the IFCA... we would expect the following scene to play itself out...

First ....the Exit by the original investors who have made a killing....The reality is that one substantial shareholder has to be replaced by another if he exits...where DP Capital has taken some profit with every possibility that it will exit totally...it does not mean that others won't take its place...

Second...It was said at the analyst briefing by a shareholder that at 40 sens, the share is undervalued...and there is a future if the performance keeps improving year on year..

Third to fill the vacuum left by original investors.......those who have taken over the holdings turned out to be funds from Kenanga, RHB, CIMB,Philip ( Singapore) & Maybank + many high net-worth private investors...they are longer term and provide stability..;a change of shareholder profile I have alluded to.

Fourth ......The winds are blowing and the tree is shaking out all the weak investors. The parties in the third scene were not chasing the price up after the Q3 report to give those who "tumpang" the ride on the gravy train big profits...watch the November new list of substantial shareholders to understand what I mean.....we saw this the last two weeks both in the volume and the price drop...

fifth...there were no collapse in the price as would in a speculative counter...the price did not spiral down but the fall has a cushion like soft fall...showing collection by others from the third scene...

sixth...chartists have been right to predict an overbought position and predicted an imminent fall but cannot say precisely to what level...those who followed & sold on the principle of "selling on the news" have a trading instinct and would be waiting to reenter...or may have done so from Thursday to Friday...I did and admit that it was a few sens too early but no big deal as I view the long term TP of over RM 1+..

Seven..the weeks ahead will see new investors from Singapore who have better experience in dealing with IT stocks and those doing businesses in China...I would not be surprise that IFCA is on a road show to Singapore with one of the analysts to promote the stock..( I wonder whether Calvin will be invited to attend or have got wind of this road show??)

NSC are non issue .... more important is the absence of UMA from Bursa...they must know something about this counter to stay silent...also in December watch out for actions by the like of EPF LTAT funds and other private funds...they want to show profits in before the closing of their financial year...also the expected rerating by CIMB and Maybank on the counter during the Q4...

All in all...I see less selling or selling which can be easily absorbed by the market...it is a new month and do not sell if you have been holding during this short turbulence...,,it will be plain sailing and Blue Sky again soon...

bb55...mistakes are common among normal people...I fear accumulating when the prices sky rocket..they call this chasing...but when they fall you can pick them at your own timing...every purchase is at a lower price and is given to you at where you place your BUY ....it is actually at your affordable price..and not at some silly price people want you to SELL..

In the end it is what you believe ( after your careful evaluation of the stock and your own risk profile ) and to focus on that objective...

Ozzie...never ask Calvin whether he agrees....???

He doesn't know what you mean...he thinks it is a double edged sword...

If yes ...you make him look stupid for the past one month or so..

If no...he is a real nincompoop or ignoramus...

Ozzie75...agreed..

Let's give them a great Christmas Party this year ...we party while they watch...

a dozen hot air balloons on the way to Calvin...please look out for them...you don't need to acknowledge receipt..it is ok ...they are to add on to your accumulation of hot air...hahaaha

Chartmaster..That is good news....I have been bottom fishing for my 2nd block since the beginning of the week...seems like I mistimed by 2 days..and off by 2 sens...no worries and comfortable with the small differential as December awaits...

A lot of Loud mouth participants here are giving comments without fear or favour...

Without FEAR because they have no risk and nothing to lose...no investment in IFCA..

Without Favour...because they have missed the gravy train..and just want the BELIEVERS not to win..they do not have compassions...Go down to September prices to allow them to enter...they can WAIT and HOPE for waiting and hoping are free...

We are just waiting for the train to move again...We who Believe know what will happen after Q4...

Nomanland...good strategy...please tell when is accumulation and when is not...if you have device to buy low I want you to accept me as pupil...Good night Bro..let's watch for accumulation tmrw...