walao sslee...now only you understood this, so much of discussion between myself and Johnzhang on this earlier with notes and articles made:(


Posted by Sslee > Aug 22, 2022 12:47 PM | Report Abuse

Now I understand how Petronm do a commodity swap as hedging.
Example: Today Petronm just buy physical oil 1 million barrel at USD 80 per barrel.

Since the 1 million barrel on oil will reach PD then into storange tank and process into finish products in 30 days time hence Petronm make a commodity swap with counterparty at USD 80 per barrel for 600K barrel maturity 30 days later.

At the end of 30 days the average 30 days oil market price is now USD90 per barrel hence Petronm need to pay counterrparty 600K x USD(90-80) = USD 6 million.

For this commodity swap Pertonm make a derivatives lose of USD 6 million but that lose will actually be recovered by stock gain because the USD 80 per barrel 30 day ago purchased is now worth more (USD 90) in inventories gain.

Similarly if the average 30 days oil market price drop below USD 80 what gain from commodity swap will be losses in value of inventories.

From below, we can deduce the following for Petron Corp refinery:

Q2 2022 crack spread:

Gasoline: 26.4 x 2 - 17.8 = USD 35/brl
Diesel: 36.6 x 2 - 21.6 = USD 51/brl
Jet fuel: 27.7 x 2 - 16.2 = USD 39/brl

But since HY hedges, it lags by a month from above for Q2.

Posted by Sslee > Aug 21, 2022 7:51 PM | Report Abuse

Q2 are better then Q1 as indicated by Petron Corp Q2 report.

Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

First half 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl

do the maths in terms of refining capacity from below figure and rising demand

This effectively means refinery that produce 960,000 bpd of Diesel in russia will be going offline.

Posted by VTrade > Aug 21, 2022 4:10 PM | Report Abuse

Any possible impact on saluran 2
If dibuka ?

https://energypost.eu/eus-latest-sanctions-on-russian-oil-what-are-they-and-will-it-work/

The significance of the Shipping Insurance ban
..............................................

A critical part of the sanctions package (Article 3n) concerns shipping insurance.

After a six-month phase in period, EU companies cannot provide “technical assistance, brokering services or financing or financial assistance, related to the transport, including through ship-to-ship transfers, to third countries of crude oil or petroleum products” from Russia. The United Kingdom is expected to follow suit.

Cutting off shipping insurance and reinsurance from the European Union and United Kingdom — the heart of the maritime insurance industry:

— will hinder Russia’s ability to redirect crude oil and petroleum products to other regions.

........

I see other regions (like India / China) if at all provide their own maritime insurance to enable importing of russian oil, would rather buy russian crude oil at a discount and make hefty profit at their refinery than buying refined products from russia to compete with their own refined products.

Its also highly possible that EU will restrict Import of refined products from countries like India & China that import oil from russia.

This effectively means refinery that produce 960,000 bpd of Diesel in russia will be going offline.

All refineries outside russia will be the king makers then.

The below answers why EU is importing more Diesel presently.

https://energypost.eu/eus-latest-sanctions-on-russian-oil-what-are-they-and-will-it-work/

Q2: Can Europe cope without Russian oil?

A2: Global crude flows are changing quickly. In the past few months, Europe has started to import more oil from the United States, West Africa, and the Middle East. European refiners seeking substitutes for Urals blend could turn to crude oil streams from Norway, Nigeria, Iraq, and the United States, although spot cargoes of many crude oil streams are limited in a tight market. Replacing lost volumes from Russia is no small task, but refiners frequently adjust to changing supply conditions.

The drop in Russian exports in the past two months has been lower than expected. Even as more oil and gas majors and commodity traders have stopped lifting Russian cargoes, the country has been able to sell more volumes to Asia, particularly India.

Because there is a phase-in period before the sanctions take place, it is possible that Russian oil exports to Europe will increase in the next six to eight months before the trade becomes illegal.

EU is panicking and trying to stock as much as possible for winter and 2023

Russian diesel exports grow in July despite sanctions

www.nasdaq.com/articles/russian-diesel-exports-grow-in-july-despite-sanctions

Still, Russian diesel exports rose to 963,357 barrels per day (bpd) in July, up by 1.15% on the year and the highest since March this year, according to data from Energy analytics firm Vortexa.

OMG, EU is still importing 820,000 bpd Diesel....

https://graphics.reuters.com/EUROPE-DIESEL/RUSSIA/egpbkdyzbvq/chart.png

THE ABOVE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION I HAVE EVER SHARED HERE - kindly go through the above and ponder deep

some summary:
...........

- Big difference between Complex & Simple refinery margin
- Simple refinery produces Fuel Oil at negative crack and low margin of Gasoline will close their production. i,e they will act as a leverage to Complex refinery.
- HY Diesel production capacity
- Complex refinery like HY high yields of Diesel at 46% .
- Diesel product is having very high margins.
- Where to see Diesel margin, i.e its crack spread
- Unlike gasoline consumers who has a choice to postpone their travel or work from home, diesel consumers do not have a choice as they are consumed by heavy machinery & transportation equipment essential for manufacturing of goods & transportation.
- Imminent Natural gas shortage in EU & winter will further increase diesel demand before the sanction takes full effect
- Russian sanction has barely taken effect (their exports had only reduced 5% so far).
- 12 refinery equivalent production of Diesel is not replaceable in 6 months.

THE 'NEXT HIT' :

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/072722-refinery-news-roundup-some-maintenance-continues-in-russia

As of June 30, complex refining margins increased 160% from February 22 to Rub21,000/mt ($382/mt), while simple refining margins quadrupled, reaching Rb5,000/mt over the same period, Petromarket told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Finding alternative outlets for fuel oil and the switch to bitumen production in the summer months has also provided a relief to less complex refineries whose storages were flooded with fuel oil as international buyers avoided taking it, according to market sources. However, the situation might reverse again as the road repair and construction season ends with the advent of cold temperatures, and refineries increase fuel oil production.

The situation appeared to improve in May as the bitumen production season started, helping to reduce the residual fuel oil yield, according to a recent report by S&P Global.

However S&P Global analysts expect the "NEXT HIT" to come when 700,000 b/d of diesel that typically flows to Europe will have to be rerouted.

The EU ban on Russian oil imports takes effect in early 2023.

..................

HY produces, 10.7 million barrels per qtr
= 118,800 bpd

at 46% yield, you have

= 55,000 bpd Diesel

So, how many HY like refinery you need to fill the gap of 700,000 bpd of Diesel?

= 700,000 bpd / 55,000 bpd
= 12 refinery
............

Remember most refinery in Europe is simple type that has yield less than 30% Diesel. The above is truly conservative. Such shortage can never be filled unless Russia finds alternative buyer for their Diesel to countries like India which would then need to export to EU - something that seems very difficult due to the way its sanctioned..

Lets look forward for the 'next hit' where EU basically loses equivalent 12 refinery while we admire the current beauty of Diesel crack

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Post removed.Why?

@Zhuge, just to be 100% correct, i used 210k bpd as effective sales volume. The actual name plate capacity of the vietnam new refinery is around 250k bpd. In any case, USD 5 billion or in the worst case USD 3 billion as a market cap for HY considering its debt, should be a very fair valuation of 40 yr old refinery.

Russia’s Gazprom abruptly imposes three-day maintenance on Nord Stream 1
Ruth Liao

19-Aug-2022

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2022/08/19/10797713/russia-s-gazprom-abruptly-imposes-three-day-maintenance-on-nord-stream-1/

Russian producer Gazprom on 19 August announced three days of maintenance on Nord Stream 1 starting on 31 August, curtailing all gas flows on the key pipeline to Europe.

“The prospect of Gazprom shutting down Nord Stream 1 for three days is only going to spook the market. Gas prices jumped at the very end of the trading day as the maintenance was announced and could easily rise further on Monday as buyers assess whether they really believe the pipe will return to service as stated by the Russian supplier,” said Tomas Marzec-Manser, Head of Gas Analytics at ICIS.

Marzec-Manser added that the three day duration would likely be taken “with a massive pinch of salt” by the market, as concerns would likely persist on whether the pipeline even returns to service, on time or at all.

very true Tobby..if we go in this direction..afghanistan is where malaysia is heading

The only religion that preaches freedom of speech - so that truth has a chance to surface:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akeA0EvLEbs

Post removed.Why?

Rosneft says replacing Russian oil at German refinery will cause fuel price jump

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/08/13/rosneft-germany-refinery

The European Union plans an almost-complete embargo of Russian barrels by year-end, and is trying to wean itself off Russian crude imports, which have fed inland refineries in Germany.

“The replacement of even a part of Russian supplies will lead to underloading of the plant and a sharp increase in the cost of petroleum products, the shortage of which is already a serious threat to the German consumer market today.”

just listen to the first 5 minutes

if you dont like the content of the book - dont read it

if you dont like what others say / joke - dont listen to it

do not impose on others to secure what u are insecure of

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IerteSOfbZ8&t=294s

what is free speech

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqMPyIHdgqc

we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg....every month as time ticks towards 5 Dec 2022, refining margin will only keep rising.

EU sixth package of sanctions against Russia

https://www.shiplawlog.com/2022/06/13/eu-sixth-package-of-sanctions-against-russia/

The package of sanctions E.U. has prohibits the import (or purchase or transfer, directly or indirectly) of Russian crude oil and certain petroleum products into member states, as well as the seaborne delivery of such goods to third countries. Any insurance, reinsurance, technical assistance, brokering services, financing, financial assistance or any other related services, direct or indirect, are also prohibited. A wind-down period of six to eight months applies to existing contracts and “one-off” spot contracts, provided certain reporting requirements are met.

Again, it is prohibited to provide insurance or reinsurance for maritime transport of crude oil and refined petroleum products to third countries. European Union operators and entities may not provide any new insurance or finance contracts for the transport, in particular through maritime routes, of Russian oil to third countries. The Council has included a wind-down period of six months (until 5 December 2022) for closing out any existing contracts executed before 4 June 2022.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_22_2823

What is the impact of the ban on oil, on Russia and the EU?

The impact of the oil ban on Russia will be significant. Around half of its total oil exports go to the EU. In 2021, the EU imported €71 billion worth of crude oil (€48 billion) and refined oil products (€23 billion) from Russia.

Losing this leading lucrative market will have a significant structural effect on Russia, whose budget relies substantially on these oil revenues.

HANOI -- PetroVietnam Power, a unit of state-run Vietnam Oil and Gas Group, has announced plans to build an oil refinery and petrochemical complex in the country. The total investment is expected to be up to $18.5 billion.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Materials/PetroVietnam-plans-to-build-oil-refinery-complex-for-18.5-billion#:~:text=HANOI%20%2D%2D%20PetroVietnam%20Power%2C%20a,be%20up%20to%20%2418.5%20billion.

Proposal to invest in an oil refinery complex and Vietnam's national crude oil and petroleum storage depot

https://vietnamenergy.vn/proposal-to-invest-in-an-oil-refinery-complex-and-vietnams-national-crude-oil-and-petroleum-storage-depot-29280.html

1) Refinery with a capacity of 12-13 million tons of crude oil per year

In PVN estimate, the investment capital of phase 1 is 12.5 -13.5 billion US$

.......

The above means US $ 13 billion for a refinery with a capacity 210k bpd.

HY at half the capacity shall be valued at at least US $ 5 billion then.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear plant has energy producing capacity of 5700 MW

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Nuclear_Power_Plant#:~:text=The%20plant%20has%206%20VVER,output%20of%205%2C700%20MWe.

If they are going to replace the energy with fuel from crude oil, its equivalent to increase in fuel demand at 100,000 bpd (refined oil consumption)

no wonder russia was reducing diesel exports earlier

https://24.kg/english/242602_Russia_cuts_diesel_exports_amid_rising_prices/

Russia wants to disconnect power plant from Ukrainian grid - Ukraine energy company

www.bbc.com/news/live/world-62603741

Energoatom, the state power company that operates the plant, says the Russian occupiers are preparing to stage a "large-scale provocation" there.

It also says the Russian military is looking for suppliers of fuel for diesel generators, which would need to be turned on if power units are shut down.

All station personnel - except for those essential to the running of the plant - have been told to stay at home.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2022/08/19/ukraine-says-russia-plans-to-disconnect-nuclear-plants-power-blocks-from-grid/

“There is information that the Russian occupation forces are planning to shut down the power blocks and disconnect them from the power supply lines to the Ukrainian power system in the near future,” the Ukrainian statement said.

“The Russian military is currently looking for fuel suppliers for the diesel generators, which are supposed to turn on after the power units are shut down in the absence of an external power supply for the nuclear fuel cooling systems,” it said.

The vast nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, was captured by Russian forces in March, but it is still staffed by Ukrainian technicians, though only two of its six reactors are working at full capacity.

Turning the plant off would pile new pressure on Ukrainian supplies, particularly in the south. Ukraine is already bracing for its most difficult winter since independence and preparing for a possible energy shortage.

HY refinery margin update - 19/08/22
.........................................

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 42.98/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 34.54/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (11.35 + 3.84) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 15.19/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 42.98 ) + (0.07 x 34.54) + (0.35 x 15.19)+ (0.12 x 15.19)
= 19.77 + 2.42 + 5.31 + 1.82
= US $ 29.3 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin of US $29.3/brl

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.3/brl) x (MYR 4.4/USD)
= 1.379 Billion MYR
...................

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/11/russia-oil-production-sanctions-limited-effect-ukraine-war

However, the IEA said the EU embargo on Russian crude and product imports, which comes into full effect in February 2023, would result in “further declines” as about 1m barrels a day of products and 1.3m barrels a day of crude “would have to find new homes”.

Meanwhile, with natural gas and electricity prices soaring, “incentivising gas-to-oil switching in some countries”, the IEA has raised its estimates for 2022 global oil demand growth by 380,000 barrels a day, to 2.1m barrels a day.

The global heatwave has also seen an increased oil burn in power generation, especially in Europe and the Middle East but also across Asia.

The report added: “EU members have committed to reducing their demand for gas by 15% from August 2022 to March 2023. We estimate that this will increase oil consumption by roughly 300,000 barrels a day for the next six quarters.”

The above is not a dream... it is ACTUALIZED by similar capacity neigbouring refinery:

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/4q-2021-lytton-refinery-performance-update-2657819.html

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/2q-2022-lytton-refinery-performance-and-trading-update-2736295.html?ref=more_news

The Lytton Refiner Margin (LRM)1 for the second quarter reached the unprecedented level of US$32.96 per barrel, materially higher than the US$10.59 per barrel realised in the first quarter. The significant increase in Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM) was the key driver of the increase, reaching US$33.62 per barrel for the quarter

https://www.indoasiancommodities.com/2022/08/03/psu-indian-oil-sold-petrol-at-rs-10-a-litre-loss-diesel-at-rs-14-posts-rs-1992-cr-net-loss-in-q1/

“IOC (Indian Oil Corporation) reported an 88 per cent year-on-year decline in its standalone EBITDA to Rs 1,358.9 crore and a net loss of Rs 1,992.5 crore, despite record high gross refining margins (GRMs) of $ 31.8 per barrel for the quarter.

https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2022/07/binh-son-refinery-q2-net-profit-soars-to-424-mm

Vietnam's Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical recorded net profit of $424 MM in the second quarter, up by nearly six times from a year earlier, the company said on Tuesday.

Binh Son, which owns a 130,000-bpd refinery in central Vietnam

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin of US $29.3/brl

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.3/brl) x (MYR 4.4/USD)
= 1.379 Billion MYR
....................

Correction:
...........

we shall use Mogas 95 instead of Mogas 92 with a premium of about US $4/brl

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

and the avg of the remaining products matching Mogas 95 as a minimum

Revised refining margin calculation:


= (0.46 x 42.34 ) + (0.35 x 15.91) + (0.07 x 34.10) + (0.12 x 15.91)
= 19.46 + 5.56 + 2.38 + 1.90
= US $ 29.3 / brl

I really wish all of HY debt is cleared soon..


Posted by probability > Aug 18, 2022 10:34 AM | Report Abuse X

spiked as predicted:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/


1. Diesel cracks USD 42.34/bbl
2. Gasoline crack USD 12.04/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 34.10/bb


Yield Basis: Gasoline 35%, Diesel 46%, Jet fuel 7%, the rest 12 % at crack of 10 USD/brl

Refining margin:

= (0.46 x 42.34 ) + (0.35 x 12.04) + (0.07 x 34.10) + (0.12 x 10.0)
= 19.46 + 4.21 + 2.38 + 1.2
= US $ 27.3 / brl

Natural Gas Shortage Fears Buoy US Market as Winter Reserves Lag

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-17/natural-gas-shortage-fears-buoy-us-market-as-winter-reserves-lag#xj4y7vzkg

Germans brace for two ‘stressful’ winters amid gas shortage

https://www.thevibes.com/articles/business/68936/germans-brace-for-two-stressful-winters-amid-gas-shortage

“It’s not just about one winter but rather at least two. And the second winter could be even harder,” he said.

“We’ve got to save a lot of gas for at least another year. To put it clearly: it’s going to be at least two stressful winters.”

He said shortages in the cold months of 2022-23 were “probable” in some regions.

“The shortfalls will probably be temporary at first and then could stop or return repeatedly,” Mueller cautioned, meaning that gas might have to be transported to stricken regions of the country.

Germany is heavily dependent on Russian gas and has seen deliveries drop sharply amid tensions over the Ukraine war.

@sslee, last time when Petron Corp delivered 5.6 billion peso in Q1 2017, the split to PetronM was as per the following summary:

Refer the first part of the table only.

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/Insight1/2017-08-14-story129916-What_Petron_Corp_results_means_for_PETRONM_Q2_21_cents.jsp

If refinery margins are high, will that mean PetronM profit will be lesser? Not sure how to conclude for PetronM

how to calculate weighted average refining margin:
................................................

Yield Basis: Gasoline 35%, Diesel 46%, Jet fuel 7%, the rest 12 % at crack of 10 USD/brl

Refining margin:

= (0.35 x 10.641 ) + (0.46 x 41.46) + (0.07 x 32.30) + (0.12 x 10.0)
= 3.72 + 19.07 + 2.26 + 1.2
= US $ 26 / brl


Posted by hng33 > Aug 17, 2022 10:03 AM | Report Abuse

As of latest up-to-date crack spread level now, obly gasoline crack spread adjust more significantly from peak level, but still remain above USD 10 which is still command fat profit margin. The other two crack spread index remain at elevated level, at multiple year high upper range

1. Gasoline crack USD 10.641/bbl
2. diesel cracks USD 41.46/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 32.30/bb

www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/4q-2021-lytton-refinery-performance-update-2657819.html

4Q 2021 Lytton Refiner Margin UpdateThe Lytton Refiner Margin (LRM)1 for 4Q 2021 was US$11.24 per barrel, significantly higher than the third quarter margin of US$6.76 per barrel. Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM) rose above the 5-year historical average, reaching US$12.79 per barrel in 4Q 2021, as regional refining supply and demand fundamentals improved. This was significantly higher than the US$7.67 per barrel for 3Q 2021.

....

Note how they say 'weighted average' above and that its the highest in last 5 years even at US$12.79/brl in 4Q 2021


Posted by hng33 > Aug 17, 2022 10:03 AM | Report Abuse

As of latest up-to-date crack spread level now, obly gasoline crack spread adjust more significantly from peak level, but still remain above USD 10 which is still command fat profit margin. The other two crack spread index remain at elevated level, at multiple year high upper range

1. Gasoline crack USD 10.641/bbl
2. diesel cracks USD 41.46/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 32.30/bb

However, margin above is not accurate as they have petrochemical & retails

The above is in Australia, and the below is in Vietnam

https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2022/07/binh-son-refinery-q2-net-profit-soars-to-424-mm

Vietnam's Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical recorded net profit of $424 MM in the second quarter, up by nearly six times from a year earlier, the company said on Tuesday.

Binh Son, which owns a 130,000-bpd refinery in central Vietnam

........


130,000 bpd refinery means, 11.7 million barrels per qtr.

refining margin:
= Profit / sales volume
= $424m/11.7m
= $ 36/brl

Look at Ampol refinery's historical refining margins:

4Q 2021 Lytton Refinery Performance Update

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/4q-2021-lytton-refinery-performance-update-2657819.html

Q2 results, 19 July 22'

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/2q-2022-lytton-refinery-performance-and-trading-update-2736295.html?ref=more_news

1 barrel = 159 liters

Even Ampol throughput volume is about 9 million barrels per qtr, very close to HY

Jangan lihat harga minyak, klu turun lagi mantap!

Tengok crack spread saja udah cukup...

Sekarang, merekah besar lagi spread nya...

Esok, kemungkinan besar angka dibawa mencecah atas 41 $/brl

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

even if i try to give up for Q2 results, Q3 results is still giving hope unfortunately...ha ha

HY cannot run away from our predictions...looks like :)

If a refinery situated in Australia is basing Singapore platts margin, why can't a refinery from a neighbour country just a few KM away?

with the profit HY will make, it can even buyout shell retails in Malaysia...

Well thats what they are doing now in Sri Lanka:

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/chinas-oil-giant-sinopec-eyes-business-in-sri-lankan-gas-and-energy-market-amid-crisis-articleshow.html


China's largest oil and energy corporation, Sinopec, is looking at retail business opportunities in the Sri Lankan fuel market as the South Asian island continues to suffer a stifling economic crisis.

@NoviceJ & @ValueInvestor88, best of luck... I am with you

Great thing about the above news is, Ampol also reported about the same gross margin HY had reported for Q1 22.

Lets pray for the best for Q2 22'.

https://www.bunkerspot.com/asia/56744-asia-pacific-ampol-reports-huge-refining-margin-hike

Australia’s Ampol has reported that the refining margin for its Lytton refinery reached the ‘unprecedented level ‘of US$32.96 per barrel in the second quarter of this year – up threefold from the US$10.59 per barrel achieved in the first quarter, and a five-fold increase on the $6.29 per barrel reported for Q2 2021.

In a statement issued today (19 July), Ampol said that the ‘significant increase in Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM) was the key driver’ for the margin hike

..


for HY , we only avg 13 USD/brl for RM 1 EPS, sad to see investors dumping the shares...

by the way live data indicates margins are exploding again at the moment.... tomorrow we shall see the diesel crack spread chart further strengthening from 40.36

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

u mean they always have big jump in gross profit from qtr to qtr but hedging will wipe it out completely?

in the same sense i wish there is a company where they will report big loss in gross profit but hedging will save them to report bigger gain..

if the former can exist, i guess latter can too by the same principle

Post removed.Why?

Fantastic - oil price dropping and crack spread rising on live data!

This what we want - LOW OIL PRICE!!

Posted by probability > Aug 12, 2022 4:19 PM | Report Abuse X

Hope investors get the clear message that, as a refinery , HY need crude oil price to be low to sustain demand to an extent that the constraint becomes refining capacity instead of crude oil availability - only then crack will remain strong.

Morgan Stanley Upgrades Thai Oil Public Listed Co. to Overweight as Refining Upcycle Remains

15/08/2022

Read More: https://www.kaohooninternational.com/markets/515261/

Although headline refining margins have volatility of 25% daily in Asia, MS believed strength in diesel margins and quick recovery in gasoline margins in the past few weeks does underline marginal cash cost economics in play as the majority of global refiners are struggling to raise their utilization rates.

In this regard, Morgan Stanley upgraded TOP’s rating to Overweight and raised target price to THB65 from THB57 per share as the company has the highest exposure to middle distillates, among Asian refining peers and should be a key beneficiary of the upcycle in refining margins over 2023-24.