thank you

i talk on steady state consumption (demand) and production (supply)...

check the meaning of 'steady-state'

you got excited with a temporary gap between demand and supply and extrapolated that is if its forever...

Posted by Targeted > May 3, 2020 10:59 PM | Report Abuse

Increased demand has resulted in increase in orders. In the glove industry demand is usually measured in the lead times agreed to by customers. If customers are willing to wait longer, that shows tgat they are unable to source the products any sooner frm other manufacturers.

If your assumptions doesnt correspond with the established indicators of demand, the assumptions are wrong. Working out these complicated assumtions is an excercise in futility.

no one saying its ending...
we are just saying at current rate infection rate, the gloves production rate does not need to rise more than 10%..

we are not talking about how many gloves the medical industry uses...
but, the change (the rise) in consumption due to additional patients/and change in handling methodology..



Posted by michaelwong > May 3, 2020 10:56 PM | Report Abuse

Hand gloves is a disposable items and it cannot takes into account of its quantity usage . It needs to be disposed every now and then after each and every session utilise by medical staffs , so there's no amount of actual calculation to derive from its overall quantity usage . Currently , due to the pandemic Covid19 disease , the demands in gloves worldwide overtake its supply and Topglove is ramping up full operations to meet its supply chains, however the lack of skills workforce is another factor that hamper productions , so currently even unskilled workers are trained to meet the shortage productions .

Another point Covid19 disease is not going stop so soon as even Japan has get its relapsed with sudden new cases taking shape not to mention many others countries could'nt brave forward to suggest the disease could be fully under control in the short term despite with the recent remdesivir vaccines that place hope to bring down the disease.

that is 200 Million per day.

If we assuming for Covid itself 40M per day, its super normal to expect normal patients 10 x times this = 400 Million per day

Infact normal patients would be 1000 times higher

I dont see your argument - nor any discrepancy


Posted by Ravi Kumar > May 3, 2020 10:31 PM | Report Abuse

By the way, Top glove makes about 73 billion gloves per year even b4 surge in demand. So where are all these gloves going to

1st question you need to ask is what changes took place for medical staff to use more gloves than what they used to?
................................................

Answer: only the extra patients they meet than usual (before covid)

The new patients they are seeing would be max 100,000 (based on current infection rate) + false visitors (those who suspect they had)

say its 1 infected for every 10

then the additional visitors worldwide would be 1M per day

if nurses and doctor in total use 10 gloves extra for this additional visitors per day for each visitor (dont make sense this high, but nevermind)

extra gloves used = 10M/day

still below estimate used of 40M for making the demand rise by 6%

Note also that , now days many refrain from going to hospitals due to lock-down and fear of getting infected at the hospitals...this may actual reduce the total visitors to hospitals compared to before covid

my article is very weak compared to buffaloes brute strength...

i am just an innocent curious investor ma....no sifu want to teach how to value glove stocks...sad:(

the reason is many did the below simultaneously during the peak of panic


and now they will realize they dont need it...


Posted by supergreat > May 3, 2020 3:35 PM | Report Abuse

FYI . I follow the crowd and bought 2 box of glove which contribute the increase in the demand of glove , but until today none has been use.

did you guys truly understand and do the maths below?
...............................................

i have repeatedly said i need numbers to justify

all derivations does not show that the demand can rise more than 10%.

why so fragile, sensitive, emotional and talking based on gut feelings

just show me the numbers - simple as that

stay cool


Posted by probability > May 3, 2020 3:05 PM | Report Abuse X

The medical staff practice : on how they use gloves and the frequency of replacements would not have changed from how it was before Covid generally

The only change is the number of new patients visiting worldwide medical facilities would have risen due to covid symptoms

looking at current daily case of 100k worldwide, say if its only 1 found infected for every 10 visitors, its only a rise of 1M visitors a day currently to medical facility

If each visitor caused 3 nurses and 1 doctor to use extra 8 gloves

The extra gloves used by medical staff worldwide is 8M/day

Even you make that rise by 5 times, you still end up with 40M extra gloves required per day

That is exactly as estimated above of 6.4% rise in global gloves demand, before considering market share of Malaysian gloves and gloves fraction of their product mix

me crying? I have nothing to lose if goes up or goes down...obviously idiots who cant derive any numbers seems to be heavily agitated to the extent of scolding....

i cant help but to enjoy the insecurity you posses

The ratio of the medical staffs elsewhere in the world could be even lesser..malaysia is well known to have the best medical service in the world

poor countries like in India, Bangladesh which has the bulk of the population....definitely will be using cheaper alternatives and compromising quantities to save cost

i think the ratio is only applicable for western countries

the maths above + some common sense is blatantly proving the obvious

you chose the basis you want and derive it...but dont pluck it from the air!

the share price rise does not justify the max possible rise in earnings

if one is open enough unlike the ostrich hiding its head inside the bush...

things are crystal clear


posted by kalteh > May 3, 2020 3:46 PM | Report Abuse

Assuming the world's % of medical staff approximate Malaysia's is questionable to say the least.

but I can concur the conclusion derived. Share prices have seem to rise above fundamental.

6% revenue rise, may result with 10% profit rise. To be more precise 10% profit rise above the natural growth (10-15%) expected without covid by end of 2020 (compared 2019)...

meaning 20 - 25%

this is precisely the reason for a short burst in artificial demand where the sustainability will vaporize as quick as it came...

Posted by supergreat > May 3, 2020 3:35 PM | Report Abuse

FYI . I follow the crowd and bought 2 box of glove which contribute the increase in the demand of glove , but until today none has been use.

The medical staff practice : on how they use gloves and the frequency of replacements would not have changed from how it was before Covid generally

The only change is the number of new patients visiting worldwide medical facilities would have risen due to covid symptoms

looking at current daily case of 100k worldwide, say if its only 1 found infected for every 10 visitors, its only a rise of 1M visitors a day currently to medical facility

If each visitor caused 3 nurses and 1 doctor to use extra 8 gloves

The extra gloves used by medical staff worldwide is 8M/day

Even you make that rise by 5 times, you still end up with 40M extra gloves required per day

That is exactly as estimated above of 6.4% rise in global gloves demand, before considering market share of Malaysian gloves and gloves fraction of their product mix

the above means even all the medical staffs in the world (40M) use extra 10 gloves per day (compared to what they had done before covid), the rise in revenue of Malaysian gloves stock can max be only 30%.

the reality is only 10% max of the medical staff who would be in such a scenario may be just 5% (we are talking about the whole world as a continuous habit)..

which comes back to 3% rise again

market cap is overblown for sure

with this info of 65% market share, you need to discount further on the rise estimation by 35%. As the above derivation assumed 100% market share of medical gloves.


actual rise
= 6.4% (gloves demand rise) x (0.75 gloves fraction of company product mix) x (0.65 market share of the world)

= 3.1%
........


Posted by Sslee > May 3, 2020 1:01 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/the-pandemic-is-a-b...
Malaysia is the world’s largest source of medical gloves, with a market share of about 65%.
In 2019, Malaysia exported about 182 billion glove pieces, accounting for $4.31 billion in revenue; this year, according to the Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association, the figure could go as high as 240 billion pieces.

http://safety-zone.com/products/polyethylene-pe-gloves/

http://safety-zone.com/products/polyethylene-pe-gloves/gdpe-lg-18/

practically the above gloves is where the demand will be..

so cheap and practical...uncle & aunty will use that one only

remember also that these gloves stocks revenue from gloves could only be 75% of their product mix

meaning even if the gloves demand rise by 10%, you need to discount 25% on that to see the actual revenue growth (7.5%) of these glove stocks

12M per day adds only 1% demand rise

i am not being negative la...i really want all shares to rise up...

rising tide will raise all boats...

but i am curious on gloves stocks only

we must listen to opposing views to make good judgement

i am considering the whole world...every type of medical staff..

and i am only talking about the change in habit from earlier habit

if dentist used to change gloves before covid...it does not contribute to rise in demand now

i brought in ventilators as everyone (media) projected a significant rise in demand initially exceeding actual...

same way demand for gloves could be overestimated by the media...due to momentary panic by the whole world...due to stocking by general public

that i agree qqq3...but you are gambling at its tail end now..

anytime bubble will burst...not worth the risk

the demand projection earlier was due to panic by household who started buying from pharmacies...i doubt that is the case now...

even ventilator demand had fizzled out...

its just matter of time supply vs demand reversal

suddenly you will see the media saying different thing

Philip, its just a momentary burst of demand due to panic...

the number cannot be far out...

i need some numbers derived with some basis to justify 60% rise

that is for potential covid patients, we are talking about the whole wide world medical staff...

the patients are miniscule to the staff size i am presenting above

it cannot be that they are touching each patients to necessitate gloves change each visit

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-03-story-h1506877438-Gloves_Stocks_Topglove_Harta_Supermx_Comfort_Rubberx_Shocking_info.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-03-story-h1506877438-Gloves_Stocks_Topglove_Harta_Supermx_Comfort_Rubberx_Shocking_info.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-03-story-h1506877438-Gloves_Stocks_Topglove_Harta_Supermx_Comfort_Rubberx_Shocking_info.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-03-story-h1506877438-Gloves_Stocks_Topglove_Harta_Supermx_Comfort_Rubberx_Shocking_info.jsp

Total Medical staff in Malaysia: 200,000

https://www.statista.com/statistics/604792/number-of-medical-staff-in-malaysia-by-type/

For Malaysian population of 32,000,000 (32M)

Say for world population 6,400,000,000 population (6.4 B world population who are in it need), you can estimate medical staffs:

= 40,000,000 (40 Million only!)
.....................

Malaysia gloves production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day (616 M)

Even if each medical staff in the whole wide world need additional 1 set of gloves per day from status quo (bear in mind gloves were commonly used before covid), it only raises the demand by 40/616 = 6.4%

DAMN THIS IS SHOCKING INFORMATION...

ONLY 6%!!! STOCK rose 60%??

Total Medical staff in Malaysia: 200,000

https://www.statista.com/statistics/604792/number-of-medical-staff-in-
malaysia-by-type/

For Malaysian population of 32,000,000 (32M)

Say for world population 6,400,000,000 population (6.4 B world population who are in it need), you can estimate medical staffs:

= 40,000,000 (40 Million only!)
.....................

Malaysia gloves production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day (616 M)

Even if each medical staff in the whole wide world need additional 1 set of gloves per day from status quo (bear in mind gloves were commonly used before covid), it only raises the demand by 40/616 = 6.4%

DAMN THIS IS SHOCKING INFORMATION...

ONLY 6%!!! STOCK rose 60%??

sour? no way..im just checking how sane you guys are..having fun actually

ARE DISPOSABLE POLYETHYLENE GLOVES SAFE?

https://www.debralynndadd.com/q-a/disposable-polyethylene-gloves-safe/

Question from Bonnie
Hi Debra,

I do not want the nitrile or latex dish gloves. Amazon sells polyethylene disposable gloves. Are these safe? I saw a web site that stated polyurethane gloves are also made. I read the latex gloves can have other additives, are they unsafe?

Thank you.

Debra’s Answer
Both polyethylene and polyurethane gloves are safe. I’m very happy to see this.

Polyethylene gloves are used in Medical industry:

https://www.pidegreegroup.com/Vinyl-vs-Polyethylene-gloves-id6494606.html

guys, stop the denial mode....the price has gone way above fundamentals...

public will rarely use gloves except plastics i showed above....this is the truth

i think the plastic gloves is definitely an eye opener to the illusions you guys had been sold to...

infact i have seen these being used in hospitals

guys, stop the denial mode....the price has gone way above fundamentals...

public will rarely use gloves except plastics i showed above....this is the truth

i think the plastic gloves is definitely an eye opener to the illusions you guys had been sold to...

infact i have seen these being used in hospitals

all medical institution want to control cost ma...what for want to wash and reuse...just use and throw this plastic glove lor!!

can save so much soap...

http://safety-zone.com/products/polyethylene-pe-gloves/

http://safety-zone.com/products/polyethylene-pe-gloves/gdpe-lg-18/

practically the above gloves is where the demand will be..

so cheap and practical...uncle & aunty will use that one only

http://safety-zone.com/products/polyethylene-pe-gloves/

http://safety-zone.com/products/polyethylene-pe-gloves/gdpe-lg-18/

practically the above gloves is where the demand will be..

so cheap and practical...uncle & aunty will use that one only

Very "Comfortable' Polyethylene gloves...

https://www.amazon.ae/Disposable-High-Density-Polyethylene-Powder-Free-GDPE-LG/dp/B002MPZOQG

now i see many using transparent disposable plastic gloves!

China coming up with very cheap solutions..


https://huarey-plastic-bag.en.made-in-china.com/product/iBGxeyRbYIUr/China-Food-Handling-PE-Plastic-Disposable-Gloves-PE-Polyethylene-Disposable-Gloves.html

Noted silverwind

now is see many using transparent disposable plastic gloves

China coming up with very cheap solutions..

https://huarey-plastic-bag.en.made-in-china.com/product/iBGxeyRbYIUr/China-Food-Handling-PE-Plastic-Disposable-Gloves-PE-Polyethylene-Disposable-Gloves.html

wa..banyak garang gloves investors...end of euphoria very soon i think

The info was taken from here:

Table 2 – Top Global Manufacturers and Producers of Nitrile Gloves based on Industry Research’s 2019 Global Market research report

https://www.thomasnet.com/articles/top-suppliers/nitrile-gloves-manufacturers-and-suppliers/

Frankly what the revenue of 10.8 Billion consist of - i am not sure.

But if you see their products on YTY group website i cannot find much other than gloves:

https://www.ytygroup.com.my/nitrile-examination-gloves/


perhaps the 17B glove capacity is still fetching the revenue stated with exceptional margins.

If i understand correctly , YTY group is part of Indorama group and not the other way round.

The revenue did refer to YTY group only.

Covid-19 vaccine may be ready by early next year, says Chinese medical expert

Saturday, 02 May 2020

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/05/02/covid-19-vaccine-may-be-ready-by-early-next-year-says-chinese-medical-exper/1862448

Covid-19 vaccine may be ready by early next year, says Chinese medical expert

Saturday, 02 May 2020

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/05/02/covid-19-vaccine-may-be-ready-by-early-next-year-says-chinese-medical-exper/1862448

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