@kancil4848...do you know about hengyuan business...do you actually know the meaning of 'crack spread'?

@gsi723, thanks for pointing out that info from pg 56 - even i missed that information

Ok noted Philip. Thanks

In summary:
...........

20% oil throughput reduction by Petronas inline with OPEC beginning May will result with MYR 1 Billion revenue/yr for Dayang.

With the expected surge in decommissioning work by Petronas alone (MYR 6 billion over 3 years) which is MYR 2b /year a 20% market share means MYR 400 M per annum for Dayang.

For regionally, even if it captures 1% of the MYR 42b/year thats additional MYR 400m/yr

................

This means a total potential revenue of MYR 1.8 billion per annum with a permanent 20% oil throughput reduction by Petronas.

O&G decommissioning works in big demand

Wednesday, 03 Jul 2019

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/07/03/og-decommissioning-works-in-big-demand

PETALING JAYA: As more oil and gas (O&G) fields in Malaysia and the region approach the end of their lifespan, the demand for decommissioning works is set to surge.

The value of decommissioning contracts in the region, over the next three years, is expected to reach up to RM6bil, according to estimates by industry players.

UOB Kay Hian Research analyst Kong Ho Meng said while there have not been any large tenders awarded by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), it expected contracts to be rolled out from next year.

In Malaysia, he said, about 11% or about 35 of the over 300 platforms have been operating for over 40 years, and more than 200 wells have already been identified to be plugged and abandoned.

Decommissioning is a rapidly developing sub-segment in the O&G sector, which refers to works to safely dismantle and remove wells and platforms to prevent environmental damage.

The growing requirement for decommissioning works relates to the commitment from oil majors to reduce their impact to the environment via late-life asset management.

There are two key services for decommissioning – well abandonment services and upstream facilities dismantling.

In its 2019-2021 activity outlook, Petronas noted the requirement for 50, 40 and 60 well abandonment for the local fields in 2019, 2020 and 2021, as well as the need for the dismantling of several platforms or facilities.

“Activities are expected to intensify as considerable assets have been operating beyond 40 years,” Petronas said in the report.

According to UOB Kay Hian, other indirect beneficiaries from well abandonment works are DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD, Petra Energy Bhd, Icon Offshore Bhd, Perdana Petroleum Bhd and DELEUM BHD.

..............................................................

Kong, in the report, added that major offshore commissioning players like Dayang Enterprise and Petra Energy were also looking at opportunities in the decommissioning space.
..........................................

£78billion = MYR 418 Billion over 10 years.

42 Billion per year.

If Dayang can capture 5% of the market share regionally, thats a revenue of MYR 2 Billion per annum.

The terrifying cost of scrapping the world’s ageing oil and gas rigs

https://geographical.co.uk/nature/energy/item/3086-dossier-oil-rigs

In the Asia-Pacific region alone, nearly 2,600 platforms, 35,000 wells, 7.5 million tonnes of steel and 55,000 kilometres of pipelines will need to be decommissioned over the next decade across a region ranging from India to Papua New Guinea and China to Australia. The potential cost for this could rise above £78billion.
...................................

Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia are collectively thought to have around 1,500 structures and 7,000 oil fields that will be either 30 years old or require decommissioning by 2038.

aiyo pang72...in share market there is no such thing as right and wrong...you can do anything you want....you can lie..betray...do whatever you want..99% are crooks


but should at least talk logic
.......................

Next, the rig’s subsea support structure has to be dealt with. This can be either an ultra-heavy “gravity-based” concrete foundation that may include concrete oil storage cells. Or it could comprise a substructure of massive steel legs and a braced steel frame – a combination dubbed the “jacket”.

The rig’s support structure has to be completely removed if it weighs less than 10,000 tonnes – but if the platform is heavier, and was built before 1999 before removal was considered part of rig designs, oil and gas companies can try and make what’s called a “derogation” case allowing them to leave much of it in place.

Because they are built to withstand hurricane force winds and the most turbulent of high seas, however, there is nothing remotely simple about breaking up and removing an offshore platform.

Doing so at the required scale will require a panoply of technologies over the next couple of decades,
................................

some of which have yet to be invented.

Our structures weigh 300,000 tonnes, the same as the Empire State Building – Duncan Manning, Shell
And that scale is profound: there are currently 470 oil or gas rigs and 3,000 pipelines in need of decommissioning – and 5,000 wells that need plugging with cement to depths of thousands of metres. The topsides weigh typically in the tens of thousands of tonnes – with, for example, Shell’s Brent Delta platform’s topside weighing in at a cool 24,000 tonnes.

Post removed.Why?

sorry need re-posting on a new page & gets drowned by comments without substance as usual
.....................


To have a feel on Petronas activity scheduled for 2020 - 2022, have a look at the meticulously planned Hook-up and Commissioning (HUC) Maintenance, Construction, Modification (MCM) which cannot be altered just because of a blip on oil price.

https://www.petronas.com/ws/sites/default/files/downloads/PETRONAS-Activity-Outlook-2020-2022.pdf

These are far sighted - meticulously planned activities which cannot be compromised as it involves multiple parties and resources being available at the same time.

..............................

Government just announced they are allowing O&G service providers to operate

bear in mind Petronas is a Non-OPEC member

and it has no obligation to reduce the output of oil unless voluntarily..and they have no obligation to reduce the output at the same percentage..even if they did that's just about 20% before the demand picks up again...

Dayang already have an Order Book of RM 4.5 Billion for scheduled maintenance at Invoicing rate of 300M per qtr or 1.2 Billion per annum

even you reduce that by 20% (following OPEC oil output cut), you will end up with 1 Billion revenue for 2020. 2021 would be business as usual.

RM 1 Billion revenue for 2020
..............................

actually even shutting down & re-start up of rigs will require more intense services from Dayang....there would be so much of complication requiring Dayang services during this period.

they have to ensure proper 'preservation activities' are done before the next start up..that is an extremely important role.

and remember that they would Dayang services to restart and commission again when demand picks up.

in whichever way you look at it Dayang seems extremely resilient as they are pure essential service provider unlike oil producers like Hibiscus and Petronas...

@pjseow, JAKS thermal power plant will never achieve higher efficiency than Mong Duong 2. That extra profit is non-existent.

Post removed.Why?

guys, i do not want to express more arguments to bring down the optimism here...

since i value DK66 and pjseow as real good friends

my only suggestion if you can find another equally compelling stock to get in and which had proven earlier, please do it as there is a quite a bit of uncertainty on JAKS at the moment.

i do not want the price to be manipulated and screwed again repeatedly using gullible investors

tk cr

@pjseow, where did you take that 43.3% efficiency? from DK66 calculation earlier below?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-14-story-h1484838111-Jaks_Resources_Effect_of_Plant_Efficiency_On_Profit.jsp

These are just hypothetical figures DK66 made

you need prolong depression of oil price to have that effect - now we have shale oil to cushion price slump... even now itself Banks started acquiring the bankrupt shale oil companies.. this is an automatic destruction of shale oil supply

current oil price is not sustainable and Petronas low sulfur oil carries the highest premium due to IMO2020 starting this year...

do some studies


Posted by monetary > Apr 11, 2020 9:19 PM | Report Abuse

why dayang 2016 to 2018 lost money if not affected by oil price?

Posted by monetary > Apr 11, 2020 9:19 PM | Report Abuse

why dayang 2016 to 2018 lost money if not affected by oil price?

who cares about Koon's departure.....i think by now market actually appreciates the stocks more when he is not invested.

For Monday's short term performance..what matters is where the oil price heads...

we will know by tomorrow looking at Dubai Crude which trades on Sunday

after sometime i believe Dayang will start decoupling from oil price completely...

DK66, this efficiency comparison between supercritical and subcritical is design limitations which are well established.

This 20% higher fuel consumption will of course be covered by fuel cost pass through mechanism but just some of the worrying facts when i see the below:


https://www.vir.com.vn/vinh-tan-1-gearing-up-for-operation-61958.html

When will the Vinh Tan 1 thermal power plant start generating profits?

Operating under the BOT format, the project boasts around $1.75 billion in total investment capital, 80 per cent of which is sourced from a consortium of several international banks. If the project runs smoothly without any hitches, Vinh Tan 1 Power Co., Ltd. will be able to pay off all debts and start generating profits 18 years after the plant starts commercial operation.

compared to Vinh Tan 1

Posted by DK66 > Apr 11, 2020 8:42 PM | Report Abuse

Compare to Pha Lai ?
---------------------
probability JAKS will still deliver 8.2 b kwh as DK66 and OTB pointed but their fuel consumption will be at least higher by say 42/35 = 20%
11/04/2020 8:32 PM

JAKS will still deliver 8.2 b kwh as DK66 and OTB pointed but their fuel consumption will be at least higher by say 42/35 = 20%

ok you are right OTB, the output will remain the same, but their fuel consumption will go higher by the proportion i used

If we use the above findings into the below figures, then we derive the below for JAKS using Subcritical Thermal power plant:

Net profit before tax = 6.1/5.5 x RM279m = RM309m


@ 30% = RM93m = EPS RM0.14
@ 40% = RM124m = EPS RM0.19




Posted by DK66 > Apr 11, 2020 5:37 PM | Report Abuse

Pretax profit for 2019 was VDN1529b = RM279m based on net output of 5.5b Kwh
Assuming equivalent of Vinh Tan 1 net output = 8.2b kwh
Net profit before tax = 8.2/5.5 x RM279m = RM416m

@ 30% = RM125m = EPS RM0.192
@ 40% = RM166m = EPS RM0.255

Note that both power plants of Pha Lai are very old already using outdated American technology.

Pha Lai power plants are directly owned by EVN, ie not under BOT. Hence, able to operate for as long as the power plants last. JHDP has only 25 years to recoup its investment and returns.

Pha Lai power plants are made up of smaller generating units, 110mw and 300mw, which are less efficient, if not obsolete, by today's standard.

JAKS power plant is subcritical whereas Vinh Tan 1 is supercritical.

Efficiency of energy output with the same utilization rate of 7238 hrs will be 32% vs 42%.

Meaning, if Vinh Tan 1 output is 8.2b kwh, JAKS will only generate:

= (32/42)* 8.2
= 6.1 b kwh/annum
...........

In subcritical plants, thermal efficiency of the steam cycle can average only about 32%. For supercritical plants it can go up to 42%; for ultra-supercritical plants, thermal efficiency can rise to 46%.

Read more at:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-view/et-view-policy-induce-stepped-up-thermal-efficiency-in-power-plants/articleshow/70485707.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Order Book means potential Invoicing at a pre-specified point of delivery.

Prospects
.........

Financial year 2019 has indeed turned out to be a great success as we achieved the best ever annual profits in the long history of Dayang. In spite of the external uncertainties and multiple headwinds from all directions, we have grown from strength to strength to hit the significant milestone, registering a massive 44% growth for our 2019 profits after a stellar performance in 2018. The strong growth momentum has been envisaged as we maintained and carefully executed our business plan throughout the year.


This remarkable achievement comes on the back of the robust work orders for the Maintenance, Construction and Modifications Contract (MCM) and Topside Maintenance Services works under the Pan Hook-up and Commissioning Contract (Pan HUC). Consequently, vessel utilisation also came in stronger at 70% for 2019, as compared to 64% in 2018. Without exaggeration, this set of strong positive result was achieved thanks to essentially a good team work from every member of the company’s work force; a clear display of team work working at its best and teamwork working at its finest.

Another important aspect was in the second half of 2019, more work orders with higher values were issued and executed as job momentum continued to pick up strongly. Therefore not surprisingly, for the very first time in our long history, Dayang Group is able to achieve our annual revenue exceeding the RM1 billion mark. Presumably, the combined strength and the synergistic collaboration between Dayang and its subsidiary, Perdana Petroleum is working well.

Further, the ability to win two I-HUC contracts in December 2019 from Petronas Carigali reaffirmed the trust, confidence and support of our esteemed clients, especially Petronas. In early Feb 2020, we added on another contract by CARIGALI-PTTEPI Operating Company Sdn. Bhd. for the provision of modification works for Block B-17 & C-19 and B-17-01 for a period of three years with two years extension option. Both these replenishments of new contracts has increased our order book to an estimated RM4.5 billion to last us until 2023.

...............

Its hook-up and commissioning job are mandatory activities unaffected by the oil price.

They already have order book of RM 4.5 Billion which can last 4 years at current invoicing rate.

A lot of people dont understand the meaning of 'Order Book'.
..........................................................

People will be stunned when they see Dayang's earnings by May' 20 and the prospect they will report.

best joke of the day!

Posted by CharlesT > Apr 11, 2020 6:35 PM | Report Abuse

By now if still got idiots being fooled by oldman n lose money he or she no die also useless

exactly...he cant make new tricks

lol!

you will see the full potential earnings of JAKS by mid 2021

my feeling is that you may not need that long for O&G to recover

Dayang has potential 40 cents EPS per annum (in fact they had proved it) ...and when the time is right they will provide dividend as they have done earlier

JAKS is definitely a good stock but considering that both had dipped significantly...i wonder which is a safer ship to put more stakes now

@aseng, DK66 earnings presentation above is accurate based on the optimistic scenario of Vinh Tan 1 and Pha Lai current performance.

Risks are they may only deliver 7b kwh or lower on avg.

So it depends on the safety margin you are looking for.

No matter what happens, Fed will keep pumping money into the economy...DJIA will never come down.

If you keep waiting...suddenly you may realised KLSE is back to where it was.

Central Bank has a duty to ensure value of goods and assets never go up or down....they are given duty to maintain just that - as a certification body giving certainty on the value of money.

Founder of world’s largest hedge fund doubles down on ‘cash is trash’ argument, warning of debt-fueled inflation

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-doubles-down-on-cash-is-trash-argument-warning-of-debt-fueled-inflation-2020-04-08

too many uncertainties here... at least Dayang the management had been telling good prospect...and proven to deliver... now its suppressed due to covid 19 only...once this is under control...it will definitely fly back to where it was...

just a little worried on JAKS

exactly charlest...thats what i am thinking...perhaps Dayang a safer bet?

RM 80M pretax profit when 2 units in operation for JAKS is quite worrying.....i truly hope IPP power plant via BOT is different.

Pha Lai Thermal Power (PPC) sets a profit plan of VND 677 billion in 2020, less than half of the same period.

https://cafef.vn/nhiet-dien-pha-lai-ppc-dat-ke-hoach-lai-truoc-thue-677-ty-dong-nam-2020-chua-bang-mot-nua-so-voi-cung-ky-20200314112429.chn

Pha Lai Thermal Power is expected to produce 6.2 billion kWh of electricity in 2020.

Business results

Pha Lai Thermal Power has just experienced a favorable business year in 2019 with net revenue of VND 8,183 billion, up 15% over the same period, in which revenue from electricity production activities increased compared to the plan. And after-tax profit reached VND 1,261 billion, up 12.3% compared to the profit achieved in 2018. EPS reached VND 3,933.

According to the report, the total electricity production in 2019 reached 6.05 billion kWh, exceeding 3.7% of the plan. And the output of electricity sold also reached more than 5.5 billion kWh.


.....................

1VND = 0.000182304 MYR

This mean a pretax profit of RM 229 M for 6 Billion kwh

For JAKS power plant of say 7 Billion kwh you will generate RM 267M

at 30% stakes JAKS may earn only RM 80 Million, and at 40% 120M?

i have a feeling technology will allow us win the war against covid before the vaccine does...

it can help in so many ways..

read the arguments he presented - point no (2)...its even more applicable now, its like slapping his own face...lol!

i am not debating whether they are true or not...but just saying one loses integrity when their arguments become 'inconsistent'

a lot of people never really understood the meaning of 'integrity'

above re-posting is just for laugh!.....

but i like point no (2) above which is salient indeed. Bear in mind that Petronas sells premium low sulfur oil which is the most expensive oil in the world

humans are inevitably 99% emotion, 1% rationality...it becomes even more so when you are older...

Dayang: Only fools will sell

January 22, 2020

https://koonyewyin.com/2020/01/22/dayang-only-fools-will-sell/


After I have seen these foolish investors as shown below who were boasting about their sale of Dayang on i3investors forum, I have to write this useful lesson.


The price chart shows that Dayang has gone up from 50 sen to close Rm 2.85 yesterday, an increase of 570% within 1 year. As I often said, no stock can continue to go up or come down for whatever reason. After some time, it will change its price trend line.


Even expert chartists do not believe it

Unlike many other stocks, Dayang’s price corrections are always very small. During these 12 months, many foolish investors in anticipation of buying it back at cheaper prices. Now they are in a dilemma because the price continues to go up higher and higher. They are regretting for their mistake.

(1) Willing to eat a humble pie
............................

Unless they are prepared to eat a humble pie, they will miss the golden opportunity to make a lot of money because Dayang will continue to go up higher and higher for many more years to come.

A few days ago, I saw 1 rich investor queuing to buy 2.6 million Dayang shares at Rm 2.50 and someone queuing to sell 31,100 shares at Rm 2.51 at the close of today’s trading.


The big buyer was from UBS Securities which has its HQ in Zurich. This can only mean that the price will continue to go up high and higher and all those investors who sold earlier cannot expect to buy back at cheaper prices.

(2) Petronas will not stop pumping oil
..................................

Even if the petroleum price dropped by drastically, Petronas will still continue pumping oil because the cost for just pumping is very small. Petronas has already paid billions of Ringgit for the construction of oil rigs or oil platforms. It is still very profitable to just pay for pumping and selling the oil.

If you google you can see that the average cost for an off shore oil rig is US$ 650 million which is like a city and they all need maintenance and repair.

Dayang is the largest maintenance contractor in this region where Petronas has discovered a total of 163 oil fields and 216 gas fields. That is why Petronas continues to award more maintenance contracts to Dayang.


(3) Dayang’s prospect in 2020
.........................

It is safe to assume that Dayang will perform better this year than last year after it has resolved its financial constrain and also it has gained more experience. My target price for this year is above Rm 4.00 per share.

Dayang has very good profit growth prospect which is the most power catalyst to move share price higher and higher.

In the last few months I have been searching for another stock with similar qualities as Dayang in vain.

Dayang is now in a monopolistic position

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2018-12-10-story-h1456181005-JAKS_My_Advice_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp

he sold JAKS almost at the bottom in Dec 2018 at about 60 cents

his selling always depresses the price like it had happened for Dayang from 3rd April to 10th April when he was actively promoting to sell

.............

and NOW, Government just announced they are allowing O&G service providers to operate

bear in mind Petronas in a Non-OPEC member

and it has no obligation to reduce the output of oil unless voluntarily..and they have no obligation to reduce the output at the same percentage..even if they did that's just about 20% before the demand picks up again...

actually even shutting down & re-start up of rigs will require more intense services from Dayang....they have to ensure proper preservation activities are done before the next start up..thats and extremely important role


in whichever way you look at it Dayang seems extremely resilient as they are pure essential service provider unlike oil producers like Hibiscus and Petronas...

thank you

Haircuts, hardware and laundry services now allowed under MCO

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2020/04/10/haircuts-hardware-and-laundry-services-now-allowed-under-mco/

He said professional and technical services that are allowed to operate include architecture, quantity surveying, legal, and oil and gas.

i think market is having too much noise....

noise is created by traders...in other words they blow water to create waves...only with waves one can trade...

its a zero sum

for every gain hng33 makes...there will be another silent hng33 that makes loss
.....

now, if you have good fundamental knowledge to predict how the Covid 19 will turnout.....or you have other financial skills like DK66 to predict how Jaks earnings will be

market will eventually react to these fundamentals..

at the end it all depends on your skills..how good you are against others...

In my perspective....either way...Covid 19 eventual effects and the Power plant earnings will be both positive... so its not worth it to trade hearing these noises arising from vested interests...at such cheap price (from fundamental perception of mine of course)

choose the path that you are comfortable

i am only interested to know how the covid 19 will turn out soon...
anyone who has a brilliant prediction....please share

as i see the aggregate demand of all consumers (all of us)...can never be suppressed for long even if there is so many deaths....and thus supply has to be back to normal eventually (not more than 2 months)..

this means we will be forced to the direction of herd immunity if we cant pull it through via containment

oil price will definitely go up.....

why? They can do nothing to change on the demand side....

but they can stop fighting for market share by reducing price without any gain in supply side...., i,e they cannot increase supply more than demand which is fixed.

the price drop is lose lose situation for all 3 parties...where at the end the sum of their supply remains the same but selling at a cheap price


they will be smart enough to cooperate with each to rise for a win win situation for all

oil price will definitely go up.....

why? They can do nothing to change on the demand side....

but they can stop fighting for market share by reducing price without any gain in supply side...., i,e they cannot increase supply more than demand which is fixed.

the price drop is lose lose situation for all 3 parties...where at the end the sum of their supply remains the same but selling at a cheap price


they will be smart enough to cooperate with each to rise for a win win situation for all

oil price will definitely go up.....

why? They can do nothing to change on the demand side....

but they can stop fighting for market share by reducing price without any gain in supply side...., i,e they cannot increase supply more than demand which is fixed.

the price drop is lose lose situation for all 3 parties...where at the end the sum of their supply remains the same but selling at a cheap price


they will be smart enough to cooperate with each to rise for a win win situation for all

Petronas to maintain oil and gas production despite measures to contain Covid-19

https://www.upstreamonline.com/safety/petronas-to-maintain-oil-and-gas-production-despite-measures-to-contain-covid-19/2-1-776040

“Therefore, all operations falling within the above essential services including all SUPPORT SERVICES,
.......................

should continue,” Petronas said in a statement.

Petronas issued the statement following the 18 to 31 March movement control order announced Monday by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, which includes the closure of all non-essential business and services.

Petronas - reassessing its plans and budget. While there is no sign of lower work order by oil majors thus far, it is understood that Petronas is still assessing its plans and budget in light of the price plunge. Based on our channel checks with some industry players, discussions are currently on going with the main focus including the assessment on the sector and areas to cut. That said, we are not surprised with its plans to continue its domestic capex of RM26bn to RM28bn despite the lower oil price, going by the 2016 and 2017 period (relatively similar price conditions) where it cut overseas capex by 66.1% and 25% while increasing the domestic portion by more than 80% for two consecutive years. It also intends to maintain its dividend payment of RM24bn to the Government for FY19. Nevertheless, if the low oil price environment prolongs, Petronas may need to preserve some cash for future investments while also preparing for potential requests from the Government (special dividends) in the current challenging economic climate. With expectation of lower overseas allocation in order to spur the domestic economy, areas of work that might be affected (either defer or revision on the rate) will include the capex-heavy jobs like greenfield projects and FPSO, exploration and development services such as EPCC, drilling and OSV.

Maintenance jobs will likely be continued with minimal rate adjustments.
.......................................................................

Petronas to maintain oil and gas production despite measures to contain Covid-19

https://www.upstreamonline.com/safety/petronas-to-maintain-oil-and-gas-production-despite-measures-to-contain-covid-19/2-1-776040

“Therefore, all operations falling within the above essential services including all SUPPORT SERVICES,
.......................

should continue,” Petronas said in a statement.

Petronas issued the statement following the 18 to 31 March movement control order announced Monday by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, which includes the closure of all non-essential business and services.