probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

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News & Blogs

2020-05-15 14:01 | Report Abuse

30% rise in revenue (before rise in avg selling price), will have explosive impact on profit

Stock

2020-05-15 13:59 | Report Abuse

at current oil price Dayang should be minimum above 1.50

News & Blogs

2020-05-14 23:34 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/luxchem-seen-grow-exports-margins

i) Transform Master Sdn Bhd (TMSB) in the latex industry: The production is operating at nearly full utilisation rate with capacity remaining at 13,800 tonnes per annum. The group’s plan to increase TMSB’s capacity to 18,000 tonnes per annum by 3QFY19 has been delayed due to warehouse and labour constraints, with expansions slated to be completed by the end of 2019.

.............

The above clearly shows that the expansion has NOT taken place on its qtr ending Dec 19.

And the expansion in 2020 will be:

= 18,000/13,800
= 30%

This will be shown on Q1 20'

News & Blogs

2020-05-14 23:06 | Report Abuse

Good write up from Sky is the Limit:

http://skyisthelimitskyisthelimit.blogspot.com/2017/04/next-growth-engines-of-luxchem-part-1.html

Follow by Luxchem's acquisition of Transform Master Sdn Bhd (TMSB) since April of 2016, TMSB has contributed to Luxchem's revenue and profit positively.


Who is Transform Master Sdn Bhd?
.................................

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/

TMSB is a chemical manufacturing plant who mainly produce rubber latex chemical dispersion, latex processing chemicals, latex surfactant, dispersasant & specialty chemicals for latex industry.


Their plant is strategically located at Lumut Port, which is nearby to well known Malaysia oil and gas giant, SapuraEnergy Fabrication yard.


What is the reason behind for Luxchem to acquire Transform Master?
..................................................................

Which I believe Transform Master's main customer, YTY Group is the main driver behind. YTY is the medical glove manufacturer located in Perak and they are in aggressive expansion mode.


"Back to year of 2010, they have some of the most modern and automated lines in the industry. Our current production capacity exceeds 8.2 billion pieces of gloves a year"


YTY First GLove Factory Located at Lekir Perak

"By year 2012, our production capacity would have increased to 10.5 billion pieces a year" (Quoted from YTY Group Website)


The capacity towards 10.5 billion pieces of medical gloves was underpinned by their second factory which is located at Lumut Port, under the name of Green Prospect Sdn Bhd.


Now, YTY Group has further expand their capacity aggressively through their third plant located at Lumut Port too, just next to SapuraEnergy Fabrication yard. There is a huge parcel of land which allows YTY group DOUBLE UP their capacity easily.


I believe their third plant has started production but yet to fully operated. As you can see from photo, the plant is equipped with workers dormitories too. With the uninterrupted water supply in Perak and strategic location beside the Lumut Port, YTY Group is in the right direction to further expand their business globally.


As such, I believe Transform Master Sdn Bhd, as the sole supplier of Latex Processing Related Chemicals will continue benefited from the aggressive and stable development of YTY group, locally and regionally.

keyword - "sole supplier"

Stock

2020-05-14 21:38 | Report Abuse

Luxury chemicals for condom, latex sex toys (all european ladies only use this during lockdown), and most importantly....

gloves to punch covid-19!



Posted by duitKWSPkita > May 14, 2020 9:35 PM | Report Abuse

wao..probability sifu is here..

What is Luxchem??? the mandi sabun Lux very wangi one?

News & Blogs

2020-05-14 21:35 | Report Abuse

RHB report 18 Feb 2020:

https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/attachments/81/rhb-report-my_luxchem-4qfy19_results-review_20200218_rhb-b-350989118756393355e4b34d840429.pdf

as we expect Luxchem Corp’s trading segment to benefit from higher demand from the glove-making sector – particularly in 1Q20 due to COVID-19. We also raise P/E to 14x from 13x, as we believe its significant overseas exposure is a plus, given the soft domestic economy.

..........

RHB need to revise the PE looking at gloves stock


Luxchem = 35% (revenue from glove companies) + 65 % others

as such 35% of Luxchem current market cap should trade at PE 50 at least

Required PE = 35% x PE50 + 65% x PE20

= PE 30

as such Luxchem at PE 30, should be trading at PE 30 x 4.2 cents

= 1.26
.......

News & Blogs

2020-05-14 21:28 | Report Abuse

https://www.ytygroup.com.my/

YTY's mission for over 30 years has been to keep frontline employees safe through the manufacture of high-quality, single-use Examination gloves. Our original corporate ethos around quality, service and value continues to drive us today, making us one of the largest and most reliable manufacturers of single-use Examination gloves in the world.

Today, YTY is one of the largest manufacturers of Nitrile Examination gloves, but also a leading supplier of Polychloroprene Examination gloves, which offer unique advantages relative to Nitrile gloves. Beyond single-use Examination gloves, YTY offers single-use Surgical solutions as well, available in both the Polychloroprene and Polyisoprene synthetic polymers.

.....................

YTY Increases Its Medical Glove Donations During the COVID-19 Crisis
Wednesday, April 1, 2020

https://www.ytygroup.com.my/yty-increases-medical-glove-donations-during-the-covid-19-crisis/

Stock

2020-05-14 21:26 | Report Abuse

the competitors you mentioned dont supply latex chemicals

News & Blogs

2020-05-14 21:23 | Report Abuse

Transform Master (TMSB) - fully Owned by Luxchem, supplies chemical to gloves industry

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/index.php/product-service/latex-compounding-chemicals

We are focusing on rubber latex industry include latex glove, latex toys, latex foam, latex thread, catheter, condoms, finger cots, balloons, latex exercise bands & etc. We also provide OEM service, design formulation for our customer based on customer requirements.

..........

The chemical consumption will be directly proportional to the gloves demand

Stock

2020-05-14 21:10 | Report Abuse

No other company as far as i know in Malaysia

Posted by tailiew > May 14, 2020 9:07 PM | Report Abuse

@probability

What's other listed company that is supplying resin of the use by Glove?

Is it fair to use such a high PE just because the Glove Company are now selling at high PE? Raw material / chemical of these aren't are competitive in price?

Stock

2020-05-14 21:09 | Report Abuse

the last report for Luxchem was for qtr ending Dec 19


i am not expecting considerable margin expansion even on qtr ending Mar 20' just like what i foresee for the gloves stocks

market is seeing far ahead for gloves stocks

Luxchem produces a specialized chemical for nitrile gloves



Posted by Ravi Kumar > May 14, 2020 8:57 PM | Report Abuse

For a company that makes 700 to 800 million is sales, 35 million PBT is really nothing to shout about. If the speculation is that they are supplying this and that to the glove makers well the financials will show. Otherwise, ..... They aren't the only supplier of chemicals used by the glove makers. The margins show it.

News & Blogs

2020-05-14 20:38 | Report Abuse

i was crazy on Dufu too...

News & Blogs

2020-05-14 20:31 | Report Abuse

Aminvest also published the above report in Feb 20 considering the risk in disruption in supply from China. But now China is up and running like no other country.

News & Blogs

2020-05-14 20:27 | Report Abuse

Aminvest published the above report on 18Feb 2020 before really knowing at what PE Gloves stocks will be trading in March, April and now May...

Stock

2020-05-14 19:13 | Report Abuse

some gloves stocks are having PE70 plus, while every single gloves they make need the specialized chemical from Luxchem

the gloves makers still need to compete among each other , while Luxchem has monopoly power to dictate the price...

Stock

2020-05-14 17:53 | Report Abuse

as we expect Luxchem Corp’s trading segment to benefit from higher demand from the glove-making sector – particularly in 1Q20 due
to COVID-19. We also raise P/E to 14x from 13x, as we believe its significant overseas exposure is a plus, given the soft domestic economy.

..........

RHB need to revise the PE looking at gloves stock


Luxchem = 35% (revenue from glove companies) + 65 % others

as such 35% of Luxchem current market cap should trade at PE 50 at least

Required PE = 35% x PE50 + 65% x PE20

= PE 30

as such Luxchem at PE 30, should be trading at PE 30 x 4.2 cents

= 1.26
.......

Stock

2020-05-14 17:51 | Report Abuse

https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/attachments/81/rhb-report-my_luxchem-4qfy19_results-review_20200218_rhb-b-350989118756393355e4b34d840429.pdf

as we expect Luxchem Corp’s trading segment to benefit from higher demand from the glove-making sector – particularly in 1Q20 due
to COVID-19. We also raise P/E to 14x from 13x, as we believe its significant overseas exposure is a plus, given the soft domestic economy.

..........

RHB need to revise the PE looking at gloves stock


Luxchem = 35% (revenue from glove companies) + 65 % others

as such 35% of Luxchem current market cap should trade at PE 50 at least

Required PE = 35% x PE50 + 65% x PE20

= PE 30

as such Luxchem at PE 30, should be trading at PE 30 x 4.2 cents

= 1.26
.......

Stock

2020-05-14 17:49 | Report Abuse

https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/attachments/81/rhb-report-my_luxchem-4qfy19_results-review_20200218_rhb-b-350989118756393355e4b34d840429.pdf

as we expect Luxchem Corp’s trading segment to benefit from higher demand from the glove-making sector – particularly in 1Q20 due
to COVID-19. We also raise P/E to 14x from 13x, as we believe its significant overseas exposure is a plus, given the soft domestic economy.

..........

RHB need to revise the PE looking at gloves stock


Luxchem = 35% (revenue from glove companies) + 65 % others

as such 35% of Luxchem current market cap should trade at PE 50 at least

Required PE = 35% x PE50 + 65% x PE20

= PE 30

as such Luxchem at PE 30, should be trading at PE 30 x 4.2 cents

= 1.26
.......

Stock

2020-05-14 00:52 | Report Abuse

Transform Master (TMSB) - Owned by Luxchem, supplies chemical to gloves industry

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/index.php/product-service/latex-compounding-chemicals

We are focusing on rubber latex industry include latex glove, latex toys, latex foam, latex thread, catheter, condoms, finger cots, balloons, latex exercise bands & etc. We also provide OEM service, design formulation for our customer based on customer requirements.

..........

The chemical consumption will be directly proportional to the gloves demand

Stock

2020-05-14 00:11 | Report Abuse

Reason serba's share price has not risen is because its unable to mobilize its service engineers internationally (Qatar, UAE, Bahrain & Saudi)...due to flight restrictions (total halt).

Once this resumes, it can then continue its international service business

This is not the case for Dayang. Dayang should be able to implement all of its services to Petronas at the moment.

Stock

2020-05-14 00:10 | Report Abuse

Reason serba's share price has not risen is because its unable to mobilize its service engineers internationally (Qatar, UAE, Bahrain & Saudi)...due to flight restrictions (total halt).

Once this resumes, it can then continue its international service business

This is not the case for Dayang. Dayang should be able to implement all of its services to Petronas at the moment.

Stock

2020-05-14 00:06 | Report Abuse

Calvin, suggest you go back to Luxchem

Ethanol is a product can be made by many industrial in large quantities. Its like a commodity.

Try to make a complete, comprehensive article covering all aspects of Luxchem

Stock

2020-05-14 00:02 | Report Abuse

“Additionally, we are providing two million medical gloves within Indonesia through our PT Medisafe Technologies subsidiary based in Medan, Indonesia. One million medical gloves have been donated to Pelang Merah Indonesia (PMI), a member organization of the International Federation of the Red Cross & Red Crescent Societies, who will ensure these gloves get distributed to PMI centers across the country. A further one million gloves are being sent to the Government of Indonesia, who has procured them on priority to assist healthcare specialists in Jakarta, the nation’s capital, and in other areas within Indonesia especially hard hit by COVID-19.”

..................

The demand from Indonesia will never end due to Covid 19......

Stock

2020-05-13 23:58 | Report Abuse

https://www.ytygroup.com.my/

YTY's mission for over 30 years has been to keep frontline employees safe through the manufacture of high-quality, single-use Examination gloves. Our original corporate ethos around quality, service and value continues to drive us today, making us one of the largest and most reliable manufacturers of single-use Examination gloves in the world.

Today, YTY is one of the largest manufacturers of Nitrile Examination gloves, but also a leading supplier of Polychloroprene Examination gloves, which offer unique advantages relative to Nitrile gloves. Beyond single-use Examination gloves, YTY offers single-use Surgical solutions as well, available in both the Polychloroprene and Polyisoprene synthetic polymers.

.....................

YTY Increases Its Medical Glove Donations During the COVID-19 Crisis
Wednesday, April 1, 2020

https://www.ytygroup.com.my/yty-increases-medical-glove-donations-during-the-covid-19-crisis/

Stock

2020-05-13 23:02 | Report Abuse

Luxchem Corporation owned Transform Master:

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/

We are focusing on rubber latex industry include latex glove, latex toys, latex foam, latex thread, catheter, condoms, finger cots, balloons, latex exercise bands & etc.

Stock

2020-05-13 23:02 | Report Abuse

Luxchem Corporation owned Transform Master:

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/

We are focusing on rubber latex industry include latex glove, latex toys, latex foam, latex thread, catheter, condoms, finger cots, balloons, latex exercise bands & etc.

Stock

2020-05-13 23:02 | Report Abuse

Luxchem Corporation owned Transform Master:

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/

We are focusing on rubber latex industry include latex glove, latex toys, latex foam, latex thread, catheter, condoms, finger cots, balloons, latex exercise bands & etc.

Stock

2020-05-13 22:38 | Report Abuse

Next Growth Engines of Luxchem

http://skyisthelimitskyisthelimit.blogspot.com/2017/04/next-growth-engines-of-luxchem-part-1.html

The first main growth engine of Luxchem- Acquisition of Transform Master

Who is Transform Master Sdn Bhd?
................................

TMSB is a chemical manufacturing plant who mainly produce rubber latex chemical dispersion, latex processing chemicals, latex surfactant, dispersasant & specialty chemicals for latex industry.

What is the reason behind for Luxchem to acquire Transform Master?
.................................................................

Which I believe Transform Master's main customer, YTY Group is the main driver behind. YTY is the medical glove manufacturer located in Perak and they are in aggressive expansion mode.


Now, YTY Group has further expand their capacity aggressively through their third plant located at Lumut Port too, just next to SapuraEnergy Fabrication yard. There is a huge parcel of land which allows YTY group DOUBLE UP their capacity easily.

I believe their third plant has started production but yet to fully operated. As you can see from photo, the plant is equipped with workers dormitories too. With the uninterrupted water supply in Perak and strategic location beside the Lumut Port, YTY Group is in the right direction to further expand their business globally.

News & Blogs

2020-05-13 22:10 | Report Abuse

good quote:

"Looking forward, we think the fall in oil prices could bode well for LUXCHEM as they used petroleum based products as raw materials." (Dr. Neoh Soon Kean, Dynaquest)

Stock

2020-05-13 22:06 | Report Abuse

http://ctyap.blogspot.com/2014/03/luxchem-corporation-luxchem-analysis.html

The group is leaded by the group's CEO, Mr Tang Ying See who is also the founder of the company. Along with his spouse, they're holding around 52% in Luxchem Corp. He has approximate 35 years of experience in industrial chemicals industry. But the bad thing is he is such a low profile person. Hardly find any news or articles regarding the company and its prospects. Apart from that, the chairman, Dato Haji Mokhtar bin Haji Samad is also the non executive chairman of Kosssan Rubber Industry. In addition, one of the substantial shareholders of Luxchem Corp, Chow Cheng Moey is the spouse of Lim Kuang Sia who is the managing director/ CEO of Kossan Rubber Industry. Thus, I think the relationship between the top management of Luxchem and Kossan will at least yield a synergy effect between the two companies.

Stock
Stock

2020-05-13 14:08 | Report Abuse

learnings who are the real sifus like you...TQ

Posted by Rf888 > May 13, 2020 1:53 PM | Report Abuse

Probability: how about your feel now ? Now all the market are talking about glove, but you is experience investor, want fight with market. May i ask how your feeling now? I told you this is poor ppl thinking, if you continue negative, better you dont want invest. I want to ask you how deep you study supermax fundamental? Is it supermax doing what business? Supermax doing contrustion business? Or doing plastic business? Or doing steel business?

Stock

2020-05-13 12:16 | Report Abuse

https://focusmalaysia.my/mainstream/analysts-mixed-on-luxchem-given-the-soft-domestic-economy/

“Luxchem’s FY19 results met our forecast and consensus estimates. The earnings upgrade is to reflect higher demand for chemicals used in the manufacture of gloves on the back of the Covid-19 outbreak.

“Typically, glove-related sales make up less than 35% of Luxchem’s total turnover,” the research house said in a note on Feb 18.

Stock

2020-05-12 15:54 | Report Abuse

wah...first time i am seeing the double dome shape..looking artistic!


Posted by YONG > May 12, 2020 3:50 PM | Report Abuse

影像纪实 | 越南海阳2×600MW亚临界燃煤电站项目
http://www.nce.tech.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/5/12/art_26948_2120768.html

Stock

2020-05-12 15:46 | Report Abuse

1.20 coming...

Stock

2020-05-11 14:17 | Report Abuse

Tengok extract from article below:

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jaks-wooing-tenaga-vietnam-power-plant

JAKS (fundamental: 0.65; valuation: 1.5) does not have the financial muscle to take on the project by itself, but it also does not want to give up a deal that offers it a high internal rate of return (IRR)

Sources say the project’s IRR is at least 15% because the power purchase agreement is on a take-or-pay basis, which requires Vietnam Electricity to pay for the power generated whether or not there is demand for it.