Therefore, potential EP profit based on Mong Duong II revenue for 2019 is;

Profit = (43.3% - 34.8%) / 34.8% x USD343m

Profit = 24.4% x USD343m = USD84m (1)

..................

What you derive above, would be the exact difference between Vinh Tan 1 and Hai Duong.

Summary:
.......


If the PPA of Hai Duong & Vinh Tan 1 is made using the "same floor efficiency level', there will be profit difference as per your article below, using the avg efficiency difference above between subcritical & supercritical of about 20%


Jaks Resources - Effect of Plant Efficiency On Profit

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-14-story-h1484838111-Jaks_Resources_Effect_of_Plant_Efficiency_On_Profit.jsp

Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 12:50 AM | Report Abuse

Probability, I m an accountant not an engineer. I do not quite agree on the higher fuel cost of 20% to JHDP as you have not shown sufficient proof. However, I do agree that supercritical design has higher efficiency.

In any case, can you quantity the effect of 20% higher fuel costs on earnings ? My understanding is Capacity payment making up around two-third of the earnings which should be about equal for Vinh Tan 1 and JHDP.

DK66, the absolute efficiency does not matter as we do not know they are using LHV or HHV.

Hai Duong plant efficiency could be 36% and Mong Duong at 34%.

But, the supercritical will be at 45% then. Refer the Table 2 on the article i pasted. You can see from the Table 2 the evg efficiency difference between subcritical and supercritical is 25% and that the Fuel consumption varies from 15% to 21%.



Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 12:52 AM | Report Abuse

Probability, even mong duong II which is more inferior to chinese technology can achieve better than 34% efficiency.

You can see below on Table 2 giving comparison on efficiency and fuel consumption:

Supercritical and ultrasupercritical coal-fired power generation

https://www.bpastudies.org/bpastudies/article/view/170/318


Table 2. Estimated costs and thermal efficiencies

If you deduct 10% on the below figure from China report, you get about the same figure of 32% for subcritical thermal power plant.

what matters for our discussion to compare Hai Duong with Vinh Tan 1 is the relative efficiency difference between subcritical and supercritical whichever basis (LHV or HHV)

...................

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/chinas-coal-plants-new-efficiency-benchmarks/

Summer 2019 has seen the commissioning of a retrofitted 300 MW subcritical coal fired unit in China that is expected to be capable of an efficiency of 42.8% (net, LHV basis)

@DK66, the China report above is using LHV values

https://www.powermag.com/plant-efficiency-begin-with-the-right-definitions/

Extravt below under "No Common Performance Standards"

Most still report thermal efficiency based on the lower heating value (LHV) of coal instead of the HHV approach because the resulting calculated thermal efficiency is higher. Using LHV rather than HHV can push up the reported plant efficiency by as much as 10%, depending on the water content of the coal.

Post removed.Why?

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-view/et-view-policy-induce-stepped-up-thermal-efficiency-in-power-plants/articleshow/70485707.cms?from=mdr

In subcritical plants, thermal efficiency of the steam cycle can average only about 32%. For supercritical plants it can go up to 42%; for ultra-supercritical plants, thermal efficiency can rise to 46%.

In that case, if the floor level efficiency given to Hai Duong and Vinh Tan 1 is the same in the PPA condition, this may explain the good earnings reported by Vinh Tan 1 due to its higher efficiency by 20%.


Posted by RangerJ > May 5, 2020 11:16 PM | Report Abuse

If I may add, for take or pay PPA, energy charge is usually a pass through, and usually a floor efficiency level binding the IPP. So long as the said floor level is met, no penalty to capacity payment. This is very different from open market PPAs. Thank you.

DK66, i used the assumptions above as Vinh Tan 1 unit load rate was 95.8% (though hours can be 7238 hrs per year, power sold would also depend on load rate where year 2019 appeared to be extreme dry season - increasing reliance heavily on thermal power plant). Just tried being realistic and see how it will appear on average with tax taking place later.

If the below is true where it was purely Vinh Tan 1's decision on the plant design & selection, then i cannot argue.

Not sure if Vinh Tan 1 plant cost is about the same as JAKS (surprising if true) despite having way much lower operating cost for certain.

..................

DK66 comment: All PPA signed with EVN were on same terms. It is Vinh Tan 1 who changed the design of the power plant. EVN agreed with no change in PPA condition ( I can't substantiate as I lost the information link, you may ignore the remark). In any case, why would EVN be bothered with differential treatment to vinh tan 1 and JHDP. Moreover, note that JHDP signed the PPA one year earlier than Vinh Tan 1. Normally, the earlier ones are better, right ?

DK66,

(1) how do you justify the same earnings with Vinh Tan 1 when Hai Duong power plant fuel consumption is 20% higher? ( I had shown this earlier based on efficiency difference between supercritical & subcritical power plant)

(2) on all articles and news, Jaks had been only reporting 7.5B kwh annual power sales. This is 10% lesser than what Vinh Tan 1 sold 8.2B kwh. The high sales of Vinh Tan 1 is likely due to its nameplate output which is slightly higher than Jaks by 4% and exceptional power demand due to dry season in 2019

https://baohaiduong.vn/doanh-nghiep/doanh-nghiep-no-luc-vuot-bao-covid-19-134965


(3) There will be periodic maintenance every 3 years i suppose like Mong Duong 2 had.

Say 2 month loss for every 36 months (3 years)

The above is not considering breakdown losses - we have seen that happening in thermal power plants like Mong Duong 1


...........................


Based on Vinh Tan 1 earnings, you showed that JAKS at 30% stakes would earn 196M/yr.

If you factor at 7.5B kwh annual sales , earnings becomes:
= (7.5/8.2) x 196 M
= 179M

If you factor the time loss due to maintenance, earnings:
= (34 available months/36 months) x 179M
= 169M average /yr

If you factor in the Tax (assuming 10%)
= 0.9 x 169M
= 152M /yr

EPS under fully diluted condition of 745 m shares:
= 152M/745M shares
= 20 cents per annum



(Management did guide 120M/yr earnings to Public investment bank. This is also not far out from recent info i heard. The numbers would also be around this value if you consider Project IRR of 12% and derive correctly unlike the incorrect method Icon8888 used including the interest payment)


Considering above, at the moment i am inclined to believe that practically Jaks may only end with an EPS below 20 cents per annum.

...............................................

Number 1 is a crucial factor we need to think of since there is no incentive for EVN to provide same earnings to both Hai Duong & Vinh Tan 1 while incurring 20% higher cost for Hai Duong.

Just want to know your thoughts on the above.

walao..just saw the results! Fantastic!!

https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=7233

@Ironshirt, i have noticed the link between Dsonic and Jaks too..

you think they are actively buying or just goreng?

ok pang72, i will remove it

i just made a quick contra gain and exited
as i still could not obtain a tangible estimate on its earnings growth

good luck to all

PureBull is another superinvestor...underestimated all these sifu a lot.

my sincere apologies...

today i made a lot of money $$$ from Comfort & Rubberex!

Thanks uncle Koon & Pang72...

they are the ultimate super investor!! One in a million....

thank you

i talk on steady state consumption (demand) and production (supply)...

check the meaning of 'steady-state'

you got excited with a temporary gap between demand and supply and extrapolated that is if its forever...

Posted by Targeted > May 3, 2020 10:59 PM | Report Abuse

Increased demand has resulted in increase in orders. In the glove industry demand is usually measured in the lead times agreed to by customers. If customers are willing to wait longer, that shows tgat they are unable to source the products any sooner frm other manufacturers.

If your assumptions doesnt correspond with the established indicators of demand, the assumptions are wrong. Working out these complicated assumtions is an excercise in futility.

no one saying its ending...
we are just saying at current rate infection rate, the gloves production rate does not need to rise more than 10%..

we are not talking about how many gloves the medical industry uses...
but, the change (the rise) in consumption due to additional patients/and change in handling methodology..



Posted by michaelwong > May 3, 2020 10:56 PM | Report Abuse

Hand gloves is a disposable items and it cannot takes into account of its quantity usage . It needs to be disposed every now and then after each and every session utilise by medical staffs , so there's no amount of actual calculation to derive from its overall quantity usage . Currently , due to the pandemic Covid19 disease , the demands in gloves worldwide overtake its supply and Topglove is ramping up full operations to meet its supply chains, however the lack of skills workforce is another factor that hamper productions , so currently even unskilled workers are trained to meet the shortage productions .

Another point Covid19 disease is not going stop so soon as even Japan has get its relapsed with sudden new cases taking shape not to mention many others countries could'nt brave forward to suggest the disease could be fully under control in the short term despite with the recent remdesivir vaccines that place hope to bring down the disease.

that is 200 Million per day.

If we assuming for Covid itself 40M per day, its super normal to expect normal patients 10 x times this = 400 Million per day

Infact normal patients would be 1000 times higher

I dont see your argument - nor any discrepancy


Posted by Ravi Kumar > May 3, 2020 10:31 PM | Report Abuse

By the way, Top glove makes about 73 billion gloves per year even b4 surge in demand. So where are all these gloves going to

1st question you need to ask is what changes took place for medical staff to use more gloves than what they used to?
................................................

Answer: only the extra patients they meet than usual (before covid)

The new patients they are seeing would be max 100,000 (based on current infection rate) + false visitors (those who suspect they had)

say its 1 infected for every 10

then the additional visitors worldwide would be 1M per day

if nurses and doctor in total use 10 gloves extra for this additional visitors per day for each visitor (dont make sense this high, but nevermind)

extra gloves used = 10M/day

still below estimate used of 40M for making the demand rise by 6%

Note also that , now days many refrain from going to hospitals due to lock-down and fear of getting infected at the hospitals...this may actual reduce the total visitors to hospitals compared to before covid

my article is very weak compared to buffaloes brute strength...

i am just an innocent curious investor ma....no sifu want to teach how to value glove stocks...sad:(

the reason is many did the below simultaneously during the peak of panic


and now they will realize they dont need it...


Posted by supergreat > May 3, 2020 3:35 PM | Report Abuse

FYI . I follow the crowd and bought 2 box of glove which contribute the increase in the demand of glove , but until today none has been use.

did you guys truly understand and do the maths below?
...............................................

i have repeatedly said i need numbers to justify

all derivations does not show that the demand can rise more than 10%.

why so fragile, sensitive, emotional and talking based on gut feelings

just show me the numbers - simple as that

stay cool


Posted by probability > May 3, 2020 3:05 PM | Report Abuse X

The medical staff practice : on how they use gloves and the frequency of replacements would not have changed from how it was before Covid generally

The only change is the number of new patients visiting worldwide medical facilities would have risen due to covid symptoms

looking at current daily case of 100k worldwide, say if its only 1 found infected for every 10 visitors, its only a rise of 1M visitors a day currently to medical facility

If each visitor caused 3 nurses and 1 doctor to use extra 8 gloves

The extra gloves used by medical staff worldwide is 8M/day

Even you make that rise by 5 times, you still end up with 40M extra gloves required per day

That is exactly as estimated above of 6.4% rise in global gloves demand, before considering market share of Malaysian gloves and gloves fraction of their product mix

me crying? I have nothing to lose if goes up or goes down...obviously idiots who cant derive any numbers seems to be heavily agitated to the extent of scolding....

i cant help but to enjoy the insecurity you posses

The ratio of the medical staffs elsewhere in the world could be even lesser..malaysia is well known to have the best medical service in the world

poor countries like in India, Bangladesh which has the bulk of the population....definitely will be using cheaper alternatives and compromising quantities to save cost

i think the ratio is only applicable for western countries

the maths above + some common sense is blatantly proving the obvious

you chose the basis you want and derive it...but dont pluck it from the air!

the share price rise does not justify the max possible rise in earnings

if one is open enough unlike the ostrich hiding its head inside the bush...

things are crystal clear


posted by kalteh > May 3, 2020 3:46 PM | Report Abuse

Assuming the world's % of medical staff approximate Malaysia's is questionable to say the least.

but I can concur the conclusion derived. Share prices have seem to rise above fundamental.

6% revenue rise, may result with 10% profit rise. To be more precise 10% profit rise above the natural growth (10-15%) expected without covid by end of 2020 (compared 2019)...

meaning 20 - 25%

this is precisely the reason for a short burst in artificial demand where the sustainability will vaporize as quick as it came...

Posted by supergreat > May 3, 2020 3:35 PM | Report Abuse

FYI . I follow the crowd and bought 2 box of glove which contribute the increase in the demand of glove , but until today none has been use.

The medical staff practice : on how they use gloves and the frequency of replacements would not have changed from how it was before Covid generally

The only change is the number of new patients visiting worldwide medical facilities would have risen due to covid symptoms

looking at current daily case of 100k worldwide, say if its only 1 found infected for every 10 visitors, its only a rise of 1M visitors a day currently to medical facility

If each visitor caused 3 nurses and 1 doctor to use extra 8 gloves

The extra gloves used by medical staff worldwide is 8M/day

Even you make that rise by 5 times, you still end up with 40M extra gloves required per day

That is exactly as estimated above of 6.4% rise in global gloves demand, before considering market share of Malaysian gloves and gloves fraction of their product mix

the above means even all the medical staffs in the world (40M) use extra 10 gloves per day (compared to what they had done before covid), the rise in revenue of Malaysian gloves stock can max be only 30%.

the reality is only 10% max of the medical staff who would be in such a scenario may be just 5% (we are talking about the whole world as a continuous habit)..

which comes back to 3% rise again

market cap is overblown for sure

with this info of 65% market share, you need to discount further on the rise estimation by 35%. As the above derivation assumed 100% market share of medical gloves.


actual rise
= 6.4% (gloves demand rise) x (0.75 gloves fraction of company product mix) x (0.65 market share of the world)

= 3.1%
........


Posted by Sslee > May 3, 2020 1:01 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/the-pandemic-is-a-b...
Malaysia is the world’s largest source of medical gloves, with a market share of about 65%.
In 2019, Malaysia exported about 182 billion glove pieces, accounting for $4.31 billion in revenue; this year, according to the Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association, the figure could go as high as 240 billion pieces.

http://safety-zone.com/products/polyethylene-pe-gloves/

http://safety-zone.com/products/polyethylene-pe-gloves/gdpe-lg-18/

practically the above gloves is where the demand will be..

so cheap and practical...uncle & aunty will use that one only

remember also that these gloves stocks revenue from gloves could only be 75% of their product mix

meaning even if the gloves demand rise by 10%, you need to discount 25% on that to see the actual revenue growth (7.5%) of these glove stocks

12M per day adds only 1% demand rise

i am not being negative la...i really want all shares to rise up...

rising tide will raise all boats...

but i am curious on gloves stocks only

we must listen to opposing views to make good judgement

i am considering the whole world...every type of medical staff..

and i am only talking about the change in habit from earlier habit

if dentist used to change gloves before covid...it does not contribute to rise in demand now

i brought in ventilators as everyone (media) projected a significant rise in demand initially exceeding actual...

same way demand for gloves could be overestimated by the media...due to momentary panic by the whole world...due to stocking by general public

that i agree qqq3...but you are gambling at its tail end now..

anytime bubble will burst...not worth the risk

the demand projection earlier was due to panic by household who started buying from pharmacies...i doubt that is the case now...

even ventilator demand had fizzled out...

its just matter of time supply vs demand reversal

suddenly you will see the media saying different thing

Philip, its just a momentary burst of demand due to panic...

the number cannot be far out...

i need some numbers derived with some basis to justify 60% rise

that is for potential covid patients, we are talking about the whole wide world medical staff...

the patients are miniscule to the staff size i am presenting above

it cannot be that they are touching each patients to necessitate gloves change each visit

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-03-story-h1506877438-Gloves_Stocks_Topglove_Harta_Supermx_Comfort_Rubberx_Shocking_info.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-03-story-h1506877438-Gloves_Stocks_Topglove_Harta_Supermx_Comfort_Rubberx_Shocking_info.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-03-story-h1506877438-Gloves_Stocks_Topglove_Harta_Supermx_Comfort_Rubberx_Shocking_info.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-03-story-h1506877438-Gloves_Stocks_Topglove_Harta_Supermx_Comfort_Rubberx_Shocking_info.jsp

Total Medical staff in Malaysia: 200,000

https://www.statista.com/statistics/604792/number-of-medical-staff-in-malaysia-by-type/

For Malaysian population of 32,000,000 (32M)

Say for world population 6,400,000,000 population (6.4 B world population who are in it need), you can estimate medical staffs:

= 40,000,000 (40 Million only!)
.....................

Malaysia gloves production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day (616 M)

Even if each medical staff in the whole wide world need additional 1 set of gloves per day from status quo (bear in mind gloves were commonly used before covid), it only raises the demand by 40/616 = 6.4%

DAMN THIS IS SHOCKING INFORMATION...

ONLY 6%!!! STOCK rose 60%??

Total Medical staff in Malaysia: 200,000

https://www.statista.com/statistics/604792/number-of-medical-staff-in-
malaysia-by-type/

For Malaysian population of 32,000,000 (32M)

Say for world population 6,400,000,000 population (6.4 B world population who are in it need), you can estimate medical staffs:

= 40,000,000 (40 Million only!)
.....................

Malaysia gloves production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day (616 M)

Even if each medical staff in the whole wide world need additional 1 set of gloves per day from status quo (bear in mind gloves were commonly used before covid), it only raises the demand by 40/616 = 6.4%

DAMN THIS IS SHOCKING INFORMATION...

ONLY 6%!!! STOCK rose 60%??

sour? no way..im just checking how sane you guys are..having fun actually