sebab tak de catalyst la...susah nak go up...

kecuali sarifah komen setiap hari ..setiap jam..setiap saat...

wei..km ingat commissioning tekan satu butang sudah start ke..ada yang sampai 18 bulan troubleshooting...

start up loss juga covered ke dalam IPP?

semual coal yang di bakar hangus sia-sia selama start up tau tak....selagi kWh tak sampe ke consumer

oh no...petron no for me

guess the management who can consistently find reinvestment opportunities at higher return than cost of equity...'much better than what the market perceives' judged by the current market cap over equity...is the true winner

in a crude manner (with a fixed debt to equity ratio)...

ROE x EQ = COE x MCAP

MCAP/EQ = ROE/COE

the left side follows the right side of the equation

............................

one way to evaluate management is seeing its historical financial statements...

thanks for the free eBook KC

check out what was its price before renegotiation by Najib earlier

Posted by hoplanner > Apr 20, 2019 2:59 PM | Report Abuse

Come Monday iwCity boleh naik ke atau turun?

and it makes full sense on Military equipment which i think - has absolutely no use in the future (fit for museum).

weapons of the future is completely different...its either software or chemical-biological warfare in nature..

I like such initiatives by the present government. Barter is indeed a very efficient - cautious approach to restore the economy.

Kembalikan GST, SST sangat membebankan

By Kasthuri Jeevendran - 19 April 2019

https://malaysiagazette.com/blog/2019/04/19/kembalikan-balik-gst-sst-sangat-membebankan/


Presiden Kebangsaan Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (GERAKAN), Datuk Dr. Dominic Lau Hoe Chai diiringi Timbalan Presiden GERAKAN, Oh Tong Keong (kiri) dan Setiausaha Agung GERAKAN, Mak Kah Keong (kanan) pada sidang media berkenaan isu semasa GST dan SST di Menara PGRM, Cheras, Kuala Lumpur. foto NOOR ASREKUZAIREY SALIM, 19 APRIL 2019

someone need to create an id - 'Tun & Botak' power

all happened when Tun & Botak sit and makan2 that day...

sifu Punter....what are heavy in your portfolios now? other than econ..what can we buy after the recent project announcements

agree PH will never reinstate GST....

but that is a big bonus if it happens - perhaps it will happen by next election

the current Fundamentals of Myeg are said much better compared to the time when GST was there

i doubt much retailers are in here to say 'everybody is buying'..its more like those in the know are...

most importantly...to execute all these projects...you need an enormous steady stream of foreign workers for years

since whatever projects cancelled earlier had been revived...

it is only prudent to reinstate GST to support these enormous spending

think about it

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/05/12/stocks-on-the-radar/

MMC Corp Bhd, Malakoff Bhd & DRB-Hicom Bhd

These three stocks have a common controlling shareholder in the form of Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Albukhary, who is seen as an associate of Dr Mahathir,

MMC Corp has ownership stakes and operations in the shipping, energy and construction industries.

70% of ECRL revenue will come from cargo load: Daim

19 APR 2019


KUALA LUMPUR: Cargo load will be the more profitable sector for the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) compared with passenger ridership as the rail link will provide a land bridge that will boost freight transactions and cut travel time significantly between Port Klang and Kuantan Port.

Council of Eminent Persons (CEP) chairman Tun Daim Zainuddin (pix) said that cargo load would contribute an estimated 70% to revenue versus 30% for passenger traffic due to its shorter travel time and greater reliability as a mode of transport.

“The ECRL provides a land bridge between Port Klang and Kuantan Port, shortening travel time between the two ports by some 30 hours.

“As a result, ECRL provides for a faster alternative transfer of goods between the two ports compared with the much longer sea route,“ he told Bernama in an interview Thursday.

He was responding to questions on the supplementary agreement signed last week between project owner Malaysia Rail Link Sdn Bhd and its joint venture partner China Communications Construction Company Ltd (CCCC) to manage, operate and maintain the ECRL rail network which would be built at a considerably lower cost.

Daim, the special envoy to Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who managed to finalise the ECRL deal after nine months of negotiations, said the rail link would also connect Kuantan and Port Klang with the various industrial hubs, seaports, tourism nodes, and East coast state capitals.

In the process, it would stimulate new growth along the ECRL corridor, as a result of which would require reliable transport for the transfer of goods and passengers.

“We are expecting the cargo load to be the main contributor to the ECRL, but as development along the rail line and in the east coast increases, passenger load will also automatically increase,“ he said.

As far as passenger traffic is concerned, “we are talking about people visiting their relatives and about tourists being provided with an alternative mode of transport to the east coast”.

“In that sense, we have to ensure that ticket prices are kept affordable,“ he said.

To boost passenger traffic, he said the Pakatan Harapan government decided to re-route the ECRL so that it passes through Putrajaya Sentral, which is a far-sighted move as it will connect the east coast to the federal government administrative centre and “this is important for businesses.”

“This will also help increase passenger load for the ECRL,“ Daim, said, adding the ECRL would now pass through five states – Selangor-Federal Territory-Putrajaya, Negeri Sembilan, Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan, under the renegotiated agreement as opposed to the original deal which covered only four states.

That means more people would stand to benefit from the spillover benefits of the ECRL project, he said. — Bernama

“We are expecting the cargo load to be the main contributor to the ECRL, but as development along the rail line and in the east coast increases, passenger load will also automatically increase,“ he said.

keyword: "MAIN CONTRIBUTOR"

70% of ECRL revenue will come from cargo load: Daim

19 APR 2019


KUALA LUMPUR: Cargo load will be the more profitable sector for the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) compared with passenger ridership as the rail link will provide a land bridge that will boost freight transactions and cut travel time significantly between Port Klang and Kuantan Port.

Council of Eminent Persons (CEP) chairman Tun Daim Zainuddin (pix) said that cargo load would contribute an estimated 70% to revenue versus 30% for passenger traffic due to its shorter travel time and greater reliability as a mode of transport.

“The ECRL provides a land bridge between Port Klang and Kuantan Port, shortening travel time between the two ports by some 30 hours.

“As a result, ECRL provides for a faster alternative transfer of goods between the two ports compared with the much longer sea route,“ he told Bernama in an interview Thursday.

He was responding to questions on the supplementary agreement signed last week between project owner Malaysia Rail Link Sdn Bhd and its joint venture partner China Communications Construction Company Ltd (CCCC) to manage, operate and maintain the ECRL rail network which would be built at a considerably lower cost.

Daim, the special envoy to Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who managed to finalise the ECRL deal after nine months of negotiations, said the rail link would also connect Kuantan and Port Klang with the various industrial hubs, seaports, tourism nodes, and East coast state capitals.

In the process, it would stimulate new growth along the ECRL corridor, as a result of which would require reliable transport for the transfer of goods and passengers.

“We are expecting the cargo load to be the main contributor to the ECRL, but as development along the rail line and in the east coast increases, passenger load will also automatically increase,“ he said.

As far as passenger traffic is concerned, “we are talking about people visiting their relatives and about tourists being provided with an alternative mode of transport to the east coast”.

“In that sense, we have to ensure that ticket prices are kept affordable,“ he said.

To boost passenger traffic, he said the Pakatan Harapan government decided to re-route the ECRL so that it passes through Putrajaya Sentral, which is a far-sighted move as it will connect the east coast to the federal government administrative centre and “this is important for businesses.”

“This will also help increase passenger load for the ECRL,“ Daim, said, adding the ECRL would now pass through five states – Selangor-Federal Territory-Putrajaya, Negeri Sembilan, Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan, under the renegotiated agreement as opposed to the original deal which covered only four states.

That means more people would stand to benefit from the spillover benefits of the ECRL project, he said. — Bernama

Philip, thanks for the generous sharing

The Case For $100 Oil

By Nick Cunningham - Apr 15, 2019

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Case-For-100-Oil.html

The oil market has been tightening rapidly this year, due to OPEC+ cuts taking supply off of the market, outages in Iran and Venezuela, and a slowdown in U.S. shale. But forthcoming regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) could provide an additional jolt, particularly as global inventories decline against the backdrop of a tightening market.

Bank of America said that the Brent options market only implies a 2 percent chance that Brent spikes to $100 per barrel. The bank says everyone might be underestimating these odds.

The “massive surge in distillate demand” later this year could “potentially push oil prices above $100 per barrel,” the bank concluded.

Japanese refiners halt Iran oil imports as waiver expiry looms

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1474401/business-economy

TOKYO: Japanese refineries have put a halt on imports of Iranian oil after buying 15.3 million barrels between January and March ahead of the expiry of a temporary waiver on US sanctions, according to industry sources and data on Refinitiv Eikon.
The waiver, which allowed Japan to buy some Iranian oil for another 180 days, expires in early May. However, Japanese refiners want to ensure enough time for all cargoes already loaded to arrive in Japan and for payments to be completed.


“We think it would be difficult to keep on lifting Iranian oil after March,” a Fuji Oil spokesman said, noting that banks and insurance companies want to make sure all the transactions and deliveries are done well before the waivers expire.

...............................


“If the US government does not extend the waiver, it could push crude oil prices up significantly as the gasoline season approaches and it could hurt Trump’s reputation,” he said.

it hit 1.24 when Brent was below 71 USD/brl on 9th April......and USD to RM was 4.09

now exchange rate is 4.16

sslee, this is one of the most beneficial article of yours to me. It made me learn a lot on IPP together with DK66 sharings.

You are very valuable contributor in i3

keep up the good work

thank you

Punter, pls remove OTB and KC lor...as they have to be client oriented...their reputation is of importance...

but we monitor these stocks Ancom and Comfort...just name O and K there would do

ok got it, thanks DK66

take it as payment of US$ 120M then.....so then they have to fork out US$ 77M per annum for principal payment?

so the US$ 120M profit is excluding any principal payments to the loan?

DK66, at the end of 25 years who owns the Debt of US$ 1.4 Billion?

Posted by DK66 > Apr 14, 2019 8:05 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

The ownership of the power plant will be transferred to MOIT, vietnam after 25 years regardless. Coal power plant has an average lifespan of 40 years.

I m indeed surprised that your concern can be so "indepth" and "far reached".

It is never too conservative ?

---------------------------------------

P/S: For 25 years BOT; it mean after 25 years all the plant equipments and land return to Vietnam state. The EVN Vietnam will take over and run the plant if it is still efficient and economical to run it, otherwise JV will need to de-commission and dismantle all the plant equipments.

OK thanks DK66...

S&A i meant as labour cost...coal power plants is labor intensive

nicely worded there...'renting'

hope you are sure about no.3, breakdown should be supplier's responsibility right?

and what about the S&A costs - who cushions it if it goes up?

renting without any risk to the equipment supplier?


Posted by DK66 > Apr 14, 2019 7:26 PM | Report Abuse

The vietnam is paying to buy;

1. The coal power technology,
2. The capital costs for the plant
3. Maintenance and management of the plant

or put it simply,

To rent "electricity equipment" from china/Malaysia with an option to purchase at the end of 25 years at 0 cost.

-------------------------------------------
probability To summarize the below message of yours DK66.

Its like Vietnam Govn is giving you the 150M just to 'manage' properly these plants you had made isn't it?

If you dont manage it well..you bear the consequences.

You dont get anything extra......from market supply and demand.

To summarize the below message of yours DK66.

Its like Vietnam Govn is giving you the 150M just to 'manage' properly these plants you had made isn't it?

If you dont manage it well..you bear the consequences.

You dont get anything extra......from market supply and demand.

...................................

Posted by DK66 > Apr 14, 2019 4:29 PM | Report Abuse

What I meant was the tariff structure is clear;

Total tariff = Fixed payment based on dependable capacity + Output Payment based on electricity produced + Fuel costs pass thru

How could a fixed tariff (per Kwh) fit into the equation ?

Its mentioned in news they are subsidizing for encouraging such investment...

It is acceptable to me too.

But, as an investor without a meat...its not encouraging to me at current electric pricing and fuel (coal) costs.

In a nutshell...Vietnam government is being super smart to finance it this way with absolutely no risk from their side.

If you are purely satisfied with earnings from subsidy and not hinting on potential higher earnings (false optimism) , then i have nothing to debate against your opinion.

DK66, with great respect on you...i really do not know what you had meant by the below...since i am not from accounting background familiar with IPP contract terms.

But, i could not identify..where is the meat for JAKS to obtain 150M profit if not purely from subsidy.

Earnings from subsidy does not sound attractive to me.

We should really investigate...how can this business be profitable?

I will give some clue to start the investigation..

..............

Posted by DK66 > Apr 13, 2019 6:07 PM | Report Abuse

Probability,

I regret to tell you that I believe your effort was not on the right track.

In simple term, the tariff payment = Capacity payment + Output Payment + Fuel costs

It doesn't work on tariff per KwH basis.

well obviously now the share price does not believe on the contract...neither do Mr.Koon (an engineer who visited the site)..

by the way...sifu OTB (who also visited) was not convinced either...he smells rat from a distant very easily...

May be we should invest on solar panel supply companies in Vietnam

with OIL the costs is already VND 5,000/kWh....discount half of that for COAL...thats about 0.10 USD/kWh....

JAKS profits of 150 M can only be purely at the mercy of someone.

The below news end of last year Dec 2018 should give a clear overview:

Vietnam may increase electricity prices next year

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/industries/vietnam-may-increase-electricity-prices-next-year-3847868.html

As the cost of each kWh of electricity generated from oil is nearly VND5,000 ($0.2), while the current electricity price for households is only VND1,720 ($0.13) per kWh, this will cause significant loss to the utility, he claimed.

...............

Another factor that could affect electricity price in 2019 is a 5 percent increase to coal prices that would come into effect this month, Tuan said.

"Coal accounts for a significant proportion of electricity's production cost so this exerts a huge pressure on the electricity industry. When developing a scenario for electricity prices we have to take all these costs into account."

..............

According to his calculations, if each household installs panels capable of generating 3-5 MW, they would have enough electricity for their daily lives.

"Promoting home solar power will partially solve the issue of electricity shortage in the south," Tri said, adding that he hopes the government would soon issue relevant regulations so EVN could develop deployment plans, determine prices and technical standards of solar panels for consumers to install.

remember the current Coal pricing is when the oil price is still low....

i could not imagine when the Oil price hit 100 USD/brl....

now way Coal can remain at this price level.

1. Energy content of coal is given in terms of KiloJoules (kJ) per Kilogram (kg) of coal as the Gross calorific value (GCV) or the Higher Heating value (HHV) of coal. This value can vary from10,500 kJ/kg to 25,000 kJ/kg depending on the quality and type of the coal.
2. Efficiency of the boiler and combustion varies from 80-90%
3. Steam Turbine efficiency/conversion varies from 32-42%.
4. Parasitic load, transformer loss, line loss and own power usage.
5. Operation day per year 330 days. 35 days for preventive shut down maintenance.

.....

On the above shared by Sslee, the max energy conversion efficiency is 38%. Which is inline with all literature you can find in the whole world.

1 kWh = 3600 kJ

............

Try to workout the minimum and max coal required to produce 1 kWh? and the cost......

you all dont play play with COAL power plant:

https://www.brighthubengineering.com/power-plants/22202-burning-coal-in-power-plants-calorific-value-and-moisture/

It indicates the amount of heat that is released when the coal is burned. The Calorific Value varies on the geographical age, formation, ranking and location of the coal mines. It is expressed as kJ/kg in the SI unit system. Power plant coals have a Calorific Value in the range of 9500 kJ/kg to 27000 kJ/ kg.

............................

you can lie on accounting but not on physics law.

do you all know what the above means at cost of coal of at VND 2.6 Million per ton?

I have not studied MFCB profit projections...but if JAKS's 150 M could turn out to be true...i will wholehearted believe on MFCB's - not a single doubt.


Posted by DK66 > Apr 14, 2019 1:20 PM | Report Abuse

I have another interesting question. There's a lot of doubts on profit given by Jaks management, but no one doubted MFCB's profit projections ??

his instincts had proven reliability time after time......

he score goals from a distant of 100 meters...unlike others who couldnt ..even at 100 cm.

I heed stockraider's advise...his instincts provide better certainty than any others....

aiyo dragon...i am pretty sure jesus will reserve a seat in heaven with many angels for you...not sure about calvin..kiki

Posted by dragonslayer > Apr 14, 2019 10:20 AM | Report Abuse

Aiyo..calvin kor kor...can dun link bursa gambling with your evangelist job or not...aiyoyo...not really tally lah..bursa is like a casino..mlm scheme lah...gambling leh...some win..some lose...you keep promoting gambling in bursa...with so many followers...macam not so good leh..followers win gambling..other lose gambling...zero sum leh..you bring them to church lah...not bring them to casino leh....lol...aiyoyo...kikiki

Sarifah....check yourself...i am lazy to prove a sell call...its the onus of the buy callers to provide...

you can anggap sampah or pink diamond if you want...up to you

Posted by SarifahSelinder > Apr 14, 2019 10:04 AM | Report Abuse

LOL Sarifah about to ask for u to provide MFCB detailed profit for Sarifah to kaji

lets see qqq3 or DK66 might have some logical explanation from where this subsidy amount will come....

then i am convinced...

by the way a lot of power companies do show good profit...just not sure how they are deriving it...and if its from coal...

it could be that MFCB is paying something extra cost currently we are not aware incorporated on its 'fixed + variable cost' (3) above...

Icon, i wont win you for sure...but bear with the poking and teasing here...unless you have some interesting info to enlighten me - who is truly blur with JAKS here....he he

FULL SUMMARY:
..............


1) MFCB Selling Price of electricity (Max):

= 0.080 USD/KwH (1)


2) MFCB net profit, adjusted as per debt structure of JAKS:

= 0.023 USD/kWh (2)


3) MFCB cost of production, 'variable + Fixed' distributed per kWh:

= (1) - (2)
= 0.057 USD/kWh (3)


4) The additional variable cost of production due to Coal by Jaks above MFCB is at least:

= 0.047 USD/kWh (4)


5) It is known from literature that hydroelectric variable operating cost is less than 0.010 USD/kWh compared to coal gasification at 0.04 to 0.080 USD/kWh

refer Table 3 page 33 of link below:

https://www.usea.org/sites/default/files/Operating%20ratio%20and%20cost%20of%20coal%20power%20generation%20-%20ccc272-1.pdf


6) As such in order for JAKS to still make 150 M profit as someone had promised, i.e 0.015 USD/kWh, someone (EVN or Government) has to subsidize by this amount:

0.015 USD/kWh (the net profit) :


= Selling price (1) - MFCB cost (3) - JAKS additional cost of coal (4) + subsidy (X)

Subsidy (X) from above works out to be = 0.039 USD/kWh

That is like 400 Million by someone for JAKS alone at 30% stakes.



who the HELL is going to fork out 1.2 BILLION RM annually for FREE?
...................................................................