https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Mobilizes-Troops-And-Prepares-Sham-Referendums-In-Occupied-Ukraine.html

agreed. Keep investment simple.

Posted by probability > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse
Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 45/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone
= (10.7 million x 46%) x (45 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 996 million MYR .....

PBT = 916 million
PAT = 696 million
EPS = 2.32
----------------

even with EPS of RM 4 this FY, current price of RM 4+, the margin of safety is very high. I am happy to bet some at RM 4.30 yesterday and today. Will continnue to buy at 4.20, 4.10 and RM 4(MM target price)..... :)

today can fish again @ 4.30. Margin of safety is very high at current fire sale price

Per SSLee final warning yesterday, MM should be fired for failing to bring HY price down to RM 4.00

MM target price cannot achieve.

hy looks good today.

a good closing today...

after 1 year ago, when i bought PMB, mkt cap was less than RM 2b, now its mkt cap is more than RM 5b. If compared with Pmetal mkt cap, still has a lot of room to grow...

crude oil price is too high. When it is over USD 80 it will surely reduce consumption...

i think uncle is having a right call this round.
But most of the time, when uncle call sell, it is time to buy. This uncle golden rule 90% correct.

uncle KYY golden rule proven again : When uncle called sell, price will go up. You bought yesterday when uncle call sell, you make money today...

uncle KYY golden rule proven again : When uncle called sell, price will go up. You bought yesterday when uncle call sell, you make money today...

as usual, follow the proven rule : when uncle Kyy said sell, then is the time to buy.

Any reason it is negative USD 30?

Thank you probability. But it does not make sense to be negative USD 30?

@ Probability
Why fuel oil crack spread is (negative) 25 USD?
What is your estimated ave crack spread for petronm?





*************
EU refinery are 90% simple type, asians like HY are mainly complex type

for simplicity they product yields are as per below:

keyword note - this output ratio cannot be altered

Simple refinery:
...............

40% Gasoline (crack spread : 7 USD/brl)
20% Diesel (crack spread: 50 USD/brl
10% Jet Fuel and other (crack spread at: 20 USD/brl)
30% Fuel Oil ( crack spread : - 25 USD.brl)

avg margin: 7.3 USD/brl

Complex refinery:
.................

30% Gasoline (crack spread : 7 USD/brl)
50% Diesel (crack spread: 50 USD/brl
18% Jet Fuel and other (crack spread at: 20 USD/brl)
2% Fuel Oil ( crack spread : - 25 USD.brl)

avg margin: 30 USD/brl

any other superstock?

So far this year PMB Tech is a stock where almost everyone make money, now all time high again...

Correct lah. Ular bought yesterday? Yesterday panic sale dapat bayak RM 4.40

not bad today price. Yesterday bottom fish at RM 4.40
Waiting for MM target price RM 4 so that i can fish more...

Very correct...

***************
Sslee
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
The market has spoken:

You have my respect if you advice based on TA you should sell your HRC and wait for break through signal to buy back again.

But if you are using fear, misinformation, deceived and unethical means to induce people to vote for you in selling their HRC just because you hate someone or for you/your syndicate to buy low then sell high again. I can only hope your conscious is clear and sleep well.

could start bottom fishing again.
don't know this round can go how low due to fear...

MM very hard working spamming.
When reach RM 4, i will buy big again as margin of safety is very high...

hope price can come down to RM 4 again so that i can buy big again...

why some have so much time to spam in this forum. There are other stocks to make money like Myeg, Pmbtech, etc... Today Pmetal also started to move due to energy crisis. HY is just one of the few thousand stocks in KLSE.

take some profit from PMBTech, big winning stock this year...

A lot of cash in my portpolio. No worry.
Found another gem, ie Myeg, also election play

stop fighting, let's make some money...

OTB already silence lah. He only appears here to f..ck you when you guys bad mouth him non stop, correct?

we also have one bogus accountant here who knows nothing on hedging, MRFS 9 and 139...

It is not good to be fear mongering and spread wrong information in this forum...

with more clarity after the results, i don't think it will go back to RM 4.
My target PE is 3 which is good enough...

Thanks probability. Yeah, only mgt will know and i believe they cannot get much contract from sky high crack spread, logically...

@probability, do hengyuan secured big forward contract when crack spread at around USD 20-30?

If they do big hedging, the results should be very good in next 1 year...

@sslee, saw your good working on profit projection of Hengyuan. Can share your projection for Petron in next quarter earning? Thanks

some are waiting to buy at RM 4, and hoping to goreng to RM 6... Will history repeat?

Dear probability,

Thank you for your research on Hengyuan and its hedging...

Do you think Petron will benefit from high diesel spread? How many % of diesel petron is producing? Thanks

I think this is correct. derivative loss will offset corresponding high profit when forward contract realised or utilised...

*********************
Posted by probability > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

exactly sslee, their hedging position is in gasoline where the margin is thin for protection

thats why they made huge money in Q2 with the gain in Diesel and Jet Fuel crack


Posted by probability > Aug 31, 2022 9:16 AM | Report Abuse X

The most likely commodity hedging that caused the unrealized derivative loss is the Gasoline.

Note that the crack spread of gasoline jumped from 10 USD/brl to 32 USD/brl from Q4 21 by end of Q2 22

Say they hedged 10 million barrels 'gasoline - brent' crack by end of 2021 (considering the intent to secure relatively good margin in Q4 21' compared to avg of only 7 USD/brl last few years).

They would have bought brent crude at 100 USD and sold gasoline at 110 USD/brl in futures market with maturity of 2 years (end of 2023).

The above means they have a margin swap hedging contract valued at 10 million barrels x 10 USD/brl = USD 100 million expiring by Dec 2023.

Now by end of Q2 , the gasoline margin had expanded to 32 USD/brl.

They would need to mark to market the hedging contract status by end of Q2

This means they will report an unrealized hedging loss of 10 million x 22 USD/brl (crack expansion from their hedging to 32 from 10), which equal 220 million USD.

Now by end of Q3, if the present crack maintains for gasoline, the crack would drop back to 10 USD/brl resulting with zero hedging loss.

They can choose to realize the hedging by this qtr without affecting the P&L at all or they can do it when another opportunity arise before end of 2023 (but they must realize before the maturity).

it seems that i3 does not have qualified accountant who understands hedging...

EPS over RM 2 sen + 10 sen dividend

kyy must be very sad looking henyuan uptrend as he cut loss around RM 5

from the price movement lately and today recovering prior to results, HY results should be very good...

The last PP to raise funds which bring NOSH to over 2b shares for LSS4 is a bad move as LSS4 can only bring less than 10% return, my guess is likely 5% based on estimate by people who in the industry due to increase in commodity costs. With such a hugh NOSH, jaks cannot even make 1 sen EPS quarterly. Local business loss RM 15m. Vietnam Power Plant contributed RM 30m. Net profit RM 15m.

Good results with derivative loss about RM 370m+...

uncle bought around RM 6 and cut loss below RM 5, sure very pain lah like someones here keep bad mouthing...

Let see whether MM chun or not. Will know the results in few days time...

*******************
MoneyMakers

Another bad QR like Q1 (nobody knows HY hedging loss) - sure panic selloff down to rm3 (historical fair value)

47 minutes ago

profit taking is well absorbed... should start second wave up

petron results should be out today or tomo...

Current rally of HY and Petron is pre-result rally. If results good, price will have further to go or vice versa...

petron results should be out today or tomo...