congrat to those bought at 70 sen and below...

don't panic sale... companies in commodity businesses used to be very volatile in profit or loss. Ann Joo also reported huge losses, wiped out all profits this year but no panic sale.

oversold....

mkt cheers Anwar become PM 10. Luckily not PAS in power...

hy price slowly trending up ahead of results

i agreed with Ular PE 1.5 target price of RM 6.33, like can hit before or after results out, depending on mkt sentiment

after taking profit 50% of hy shares in my portpolio from 4.70-4.90 lately, i bet again Hy today...

Diesel shortage not over yet...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/10/diesel-energy-biden-economy/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/business/energy-environment/diesel-prices-inflation.html

game not over so soon....

https://globalnews.ca/news/9244361/us-diesel-shortage-canada/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/30/diesel-market-in-perfect-storm-as-prices-surge-and-supplies-dwindle.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-US-Diesel-Shortage-Is-Worsening.html

almost same pattern as last time limit up....

limit up again?

price goes up again, very happy

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Mobilizes-Troops-And-Prepares-Sham-Referendums-In-Occupied-Ukraine.html

agreed. Keep investment simple.

Posted by probability > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse
Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 45/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone
= (10.7 million x 46%) x (45 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 996 million MYR .....

PBT = 916 million
PAT = 696 million
EPS = 2.32
----------------

even with EPS of RM 4 this FY, current price of RM 4+, the margin of safety is very high. I am happy to bet some at RM 4.30 yesterday and today. Will continnue to buy at 4.20, 4.10 and RM 4(MM target price)..... :)

today can fish again @ 4.30. Margin of safety is very high at current fire sale price

Per SSLee final warning yesterday, MM should be fired for failing to bring HY price down to RM 4.00

MM target price cannot achieve.

hy looks good today.

a good closing today...

after 1 year ago, when i bought PMB, mkt cap was less than RM 2b, now its mkt cap is more than RM 5b. If compared with Pmetal mkt cap, still has a lot of room to grow...

crude oil price is too high. When it is over USD 80 it will surely reduce consumption...

i think uncle is having a right call this round.
But most of the time, when uncle call sell, it is time to buy. This uncle golden rule 90% correct.

uncle KYY golden rule proven again : When uncle called sell, price will go up. You bought yesterday when uncle call sell, you make money today...

uncle KYY golden rule proven again : When uncle called sell, price will go up. You bought yesterday when uncle call sell, you make money today...

as usual, follow the proven rule : when uncle Kyy said sell, then is the time to buy.

Any reason it is negative USD 30?

Thank you probability. But it does not make sense to be negative USD 30?

@ Probability
Why fuel oil crack spread is (negative) 25 USD?
What is your estimated ave crack spread for petronm?





*************
EU refinery are 90% simple type, asians like HY are mainly complex type

for simplicity they product yields are as per below:

keyword note - this output ratio cannot be altered

Simple refinery:
...............

40% Gasoline (crack spread : 7 USD/brl)
20% Diesel (crack spread: 50 USD/brl
10% Jet Fuel and other (crack spread at: 20 USD/brl)
30% Fuel Oil ( crack spread : - 25 USD.brl)

avg margin: 7.3 USD/brl

Complex refinery:
.................

30% Gasoline (crack spread : 7 USD/brl)
50% Diesel (crack spread: 50 USD/brl
18% Jet Fuel and other (crack spread at: 20 USD/brl)
2% Fuel Oil ( crack spread : - 25 USD.brl)

avg margin: 30 USD/brl

any other superstock?

So far this year PMB Tech is a stock where almost everyone make money, now all time high again...

Correct lah. Ular bought yesterday? Yesterday panic sale dapat bayak RM 4.40

not bad today price. Yesterday bottom fish at RM 4.40
Waiting for MM target price RM 4 so that i can fish more...

Very correct...

***************
Sslee
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
The market has spoken:

You have my respect if you advice based on TA you should sell your HRC and wait for break through signal to buy back again.

But if you are using fear, misinformation, deceived and unethical means to induce people to vote for you in selling their HRC just because you hate someone or for you/your syndicate to buy low then sell high again. I can only hope your conscious is clear and sleep well.

could start bottom fishing again.
don't know this round can go how low due to fear...

MM very hard working spamming.
When reach RM 4, i will buy big again as margin of safety is very high...

hope price can come down to RM 4 again so that i can buy big again...

why some have so much time to spam in this forum. There are other stocks to make money like Myeg, Pmbtech, etc... Today Pmetal also started to move due to energy crisis. HY is just one of the few thousand stocks in KLSE.

take some profit from PMBTech, big winning stock this year...

stop fighting, let's make some money...

OTB already silence lah. He only appears here to f..ck you when you guys bad mouth him non stop, correct?

we also have one bogus accountant here who knows nothing on hedging, MRFS 9 and 139...

It is not good to be fear mongering and spread wrong information in this forum...

with more clarity after the results, i don't think it will go back to RM 4.
My target PE is 3 which is good enough...

Thanks probability. Yeah, only mgt will know and i believe they cannot get much contract from sky high crack spread, logically...

@probability, do hengyuan secured big forward contract when crack spread at around USD 20-30?

If they do big hedging, the results should be very good in next 1 year...

@sslee, saw your good working on profit projection of Hengyuan. Can share your projection for Petron in next quarter earning? Thanks

some are waiting to buy at RM 4, and hoping to goreng to RM 6... Will history repeat?

Dear probability,

Thank you for your research on Hengyuan and its hedging...

Do you think Petron will benefit from high diesel spread? How many % of diesel petron is producing? Thanks