Outlook doesn't looks good
1.US-CHINA(shipment issue)
2.Plywood price drop more than 20% since Dec 2018.

You are definitely right, but now chicken market oversupply. Even price is high but these company dumping price like no tomorrow in order to grab market share. LHI chicken sell at very cheap price, LHI strategy is aim for quantity/volume, so its peers like CAB, Huat Lai and Mflour can't fight against LHI besides sell cheaper than LHI.

Teck Ng next QR should be better，due to the chiken price already increase 40% from Jun

for long term yes, for a period of 1 year or shorter no. LHI profit warning, and rumour say mflour quarter 2 in red. so let see how its go.

to mrkeong
70% is combination of grain trading and flour. So, the correct one is 40% from flour 30% from grain trading and 30% for poultry integrate.

lucas, I dont think so,you wait and see then. Anyway I had already release all >75c and make some coffee token.

>80c tak nak jual
>70c tak nak jual
<70c take nak jual
Qtr2 boom jual <60c.
4 month week, you will be surprise^.^

Question to ask yourself, why Mflour share price drop?
If Mflour result good, IB will promote and upgrade TP. But why recently IB din't appear in this counter? Even LHI after listed share price drop <95c, why? that is only 1 reason, it is hard time for poultry industry.

Ooi

Good luck guys. Dont be silly operator try to out, boat to holland in 2 month time. I beg the result is less than 5 mil.

Live bird price back to RM3.++. Apa Ramadhan, harga tak naik pun. We are still half a month before the end of 2nd Quarter.
Good luck. before it too late.

Ooi

Flour
1.Grain trading loss making due to new competitor.(mainly attributable to compressed margins in the grains trading business-Extract from quarter)

2.Indonesia side out of RM 7 mil shared profit , RM 3 mil is from FOREX, but still we see some improvement with new CAPEX inject recently.

3.Vietnam side 2 plant:-

Plant 1; Carter for upper part of Vietnam(VIMA Flour mill), Vimaflour is market leader in upper part of Vietnam, only a few flour mill operate in upper part of Vietnam.

Plant 2; Carter for lower part of Vietnam(Mekong Flour mill), there are number 4 in term of market share after Interflour, Binh Dong Flour Mill Co and Vietnam Flour Mill.

Ya, wheat price is low but now RM depreciated and I don't see flour mill benefited from . I remember quarter report do mention higher selling price offset higher raw mat.


Poultry Integrate
Revenue derive from both live bird and food processing mainly is burger patty, nugget, chicken part and etc.
Live bird account for 55% and remaining is for chicken processing product.
Live bird-Around RM 110 mil(Price volatile based on consumer force)
Process Chick-Around RM 90 mil(Margin very lean for process product)

Quarter 1 operation profit of RM 1.8 mil which yet take in account for interest expenses. Total Interest Expense after right issue par down to RM7.3 mil, assume it 50:50. Poultry Integrate LBT is RM1.8 mil.
1. Live bird-The price in average for quarter 1 was around RM 5 and poultry still making losses, how about live bird price below RM4 for Apr&May? Live bird price on Friday is RM4.40, Ramadan fasting month but live bird price still stay below RM 5 my godness. In conclusion the more the DOC sold the huge the losses. Let's see in coming quarter.

2. Process product-I believe the process good is making money but very lean margin.


Overall, I stronger believe quarter 2 performance will not be good.
Below RM 5 mil, lets see.

Ooi

I had already hint on the 8th, sometime connection is very important.

Posted by Steve Ooi > May 8, 2019 1:17 AM | Report Abuse X

My advice is stay away from FLB, defer shipment push January sales, but FEB and MAR sales drop alot. Revenue below RM 50mil.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please read the performance review.

Posted by chl1989 > May 8, 2019 10:53 AM | Report Abuse

how sure u are

Hey dude, as I said old man like me used to attend AGM for free gift. With my 1,000 unit share, Im still can take part in AGM what.
Cap ros tepung 1 packet, jumbo sausage 1 packet.

We are here to make money, for me there is no right timing when to sell or buy. When Im worried about the impact of live bird price, I choose to sell. I own rule is I wont ride with the sinking boat. I strongly believe 2nd quarter mflour poultry sector atleast loss 20mil. If you do enough research, you surely will agreed with my statement.

Between yesterday live bird price drop to RM 3.50. You can believe or you may choose to ignore.

AGM soon, and see you guys there.
Old man like me attend AGM for free gift^^.

It's tough for Mflour in 2nd quarter live bird price on Friday drop back to RM4.10.
The chicken consume market force is not there this year even during Ramadan fasting month.

My advice is stay away from FLB, defer shipment push January sales, but FEB and MAR sales drop alot. Revenue below RM 50mil.

Haha, my entry price below 50c and bought LA at below 1buck. Release all in early April, earn some kopi o tips loh.

UnicornP
I dint ask you to believe me, and ask you to sell. The market choose to buy or sell is beyond my control nor you.
As a group view, Mflour still making profit for quarter 1.

Grain business not making money since last year due to new comer.

hi connie hows your takaful doing, fong say will probably worth 8-9. Perhaps bimb-wa more potential.

You are definitely right, wheat price drop perhaps is good thing most of small flour mills as lower raw mat costs but appreciate of USD against RM already offset it. Most of the wheat they source is from US, currency in used is USD.

Your can always buy at cheaper price with lower grade wheat, higher grade wheat always sell at higher price. There are different grade/type of wheat my friend, if you want a better quality flour, you have to pay more. In order to produce good quality flour, need buy good quality wheat lohh. Perhaps, you guys can go to super/hyper market and find MFM brand flour which sell at around RM 4/pack/kg, expensive/premium?

Why all looking so much at chicken price is because 2016 Mflour able to deliver a great result is contributed from poultry. This does't mean flour business not doing well, but flour business stagnant and no growth factor besides Indonesia.To recap, when live bird price was RM 6.10 Mflour operation profit >RM 15mil back in Qtr 3 2016, But live bird price drop to range between 2.90-4.10in April 2019, I'm pretty sure poultry is loss making.

UnicornP You guys focus too much on the chicken and missed the most important catalyst, the continuing decline of wheat price.

Ooi

it's Malaysia market forces determine the price of chicken.
When demand lesser than Supply, chicken price will drop. When festive come CNY/Hari Raya, chick price will surge. China chicken price jump doesn't affect MFlour at all because MFlour poultry solely carter for Malaysia market and no export for its poultry product. Their clientele are those KFC, MCD, RAMLY.
Chicken price still remain at 4.10 despite busy month for Ramadhan.

chicken price stagnant at 4.10 for past 5 days.
No sign of chicken price hike, I wonder how well flour division doing.

From my source, poultry, raw mat, local flour, all no eye see, Indo slight improvement and Vietnam operation not as good as previous quarter.

Stop looking at Mflour, perhaps you guys may swift to Takaful. It's uptrend and possible to shoot up to 8 buck. There are still 30% upside.
Buy on your own risk, my entry price below RM5.

hmm live bird price climb start tuesday 30c by 30c and it is 4.10now. I heard M poultry making losses despite the the bird price is good in quarter 1. Believe or not, you will know in a month time.

Live bird price stay at RM3.20 today. It remain at 2.90 to 3.20 for last 10 days.
Between leong hup making losses for quarter 1 2019, I presume Mflour poultry sector making losses despite any fair value adjustment in quarter 1 2019. Entire expansion plan for its poultry sector costs 550mil but only capitalize by far around 150 mil, I believe there are still about 400 mil under work in progress. Additional depreciation/quarter around 10mil(400mil/10yrs). I believe most of you aware that process food margin is so thin, maybe around 2-3% on revenue.
Poultry sector no eye see.

Let have a look at flour side, Indonesia might have FOREX GAIN due to IDR appreciate. Beside Vimaflour all habis cerita according to one of fund manager.
Malaysia operation all habis.
Indonesia habis jugak.
Vietnam boleh tahan.

live bird up 10c today at RM 3.20.

you guys may refer to this gov dvs price but will only update once a week .
http://www.dvs.gov.my/index.php/pages/view/2157

ya I miss mflour at 60c but my ave is around 52.+c and I just cabut on thursday with pretty kopi o tips. live bird price drop to 2.90-3.10 is facts and you can check if you got contact. Im just to share what I know, you may choose to ignore. Is just like last time I mention LCtitan plant maintanance late nov and every attacking me. But you can check lctitan qtr 4 result and comment there is schedule maintainance and affect their production and so forth..

Live bird price from early of the year around RM 5.00 drop until RM 2.90 this week.
According to source in Leong Hup their break-even for its live bird is around RM4.00-4.20.
LH is alot bigger than M poultry and their BE stay around the range of 4-4.20, probably u can guesswhat is M poultry BE. With the huge CAPEX injection, huge depreciation, low bird price, I believe 2019 will be another year of loss making for its poultry division.

Flour Division stagnant, WHY? IF flour is doing so good why not they expand their flour business in Indonesia, as what I know they are just a small player in Indonesia(JV). Why allocate so much fund in poultry(>RM400mil)?

In short, flour business stagnant, poultry low margin WHY expand? Revise EPS 5.3cents(RM16.5mil*4/990mil OS+124mil*2 Mflour-LA).

I know you guys will challenge with the expansion will bring in more Revenue from poultry division, but bear in mind even the bird price at RM 5 M poultry is not making a good profit, but now bird price is around RM 3, do you think it will make profit?

enning22 QTR reports not meant for reporting "off and on" ,plants repair and maintenance matters

I mean like some company transparent enough show let us know la, we are part of the company stakeholder ma.
Anyway share price move clear my worry also.
Hope that's another big day tomorrow^^

SamuelLuke Did anyone listened to Connie n Steve?.... those who listen will regret as it is on the uptrend....

Excuse samuel, I'm in there and I belief my costs lower than yours for sure(inc dividend). Management should somehow notify us on the QTR report that schedule maintenance this and that.

alone Who say TE3 close
TE3 plant only stop for maintenance, it will run back after maintenance. Somehow got impact in bottom line. Napthan price drop from sky high to current level, not much inventory gain(1.64Bil inventory-Expensive stock) also cos it based on weighted average basis-its costs will normalize if Napthan price maintain at current level for the following 2-3 month, but LC's product price will adjust as well.

TE-3 plant is stop and under maintenance until late Jan 2019, why management never announce.

Sudah laaa, jz admit mistake and say that it is a crap company, so long gas for what seriously. i dont believe that u are still holding all the way from the peak to the bottom, share price could hv scare the shit out of ur pants oledi

JAKS in deep shit.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/149250.jsp

Masteel result dissapoint me, 1.00 on the way.
If masteel with the forex gain if 5 mil, its nothing man . 400mil revenue but just 7 mil profit from the business. Return not even 2%.

If today close below 1.12 better stay away from masteel.

See you again masteel. Eps only 3 Sen. Pe 9=1.10. Gong hei.fuck choy. Fuck, wait to collect my share tomorrow. Tomorrow opening should be around 1. 24.

tax incentive from subsidiary, if without tax incentive PAT is around 40 mil. Still not too bad.

Will have sell down tomorrow for Masteel.
The game of bonus issue, just sold and wait to collect tomorrow.

Bought back at 1.51. But timing is not right, Dow jone not stable, Dow jone drop 250 point last 20min before end of trading day, perhaps can try average down when price goes down. Don't all in in masteel, perhaps can consider look into annjoo, because the result already leak.

support line at 1.51, so wait to add at 1.55 then^^

Hi Panda,
SuperPanda @ValueMaker78, pls corrct ur Q3 figure.

Rev = 401,445
Earn = 38, 670 !
Eps = 12.88 !
YoY = 3011% !
23/01/2018 21:25

Yeah, earning reported is 38 Mil(smoke screen), but why profit before tax is only 23Mil(Current tax 5Mil) so the PAT for the Qtr is only 18 Mil(This is profit generated from business). 20.5 million is from defer tax my friend I'm not familiar with accounting(maybe you can explain to me further) but I google and trying to understand what is defer tax and so on-this is just a treatment between taxation and accounting,

2017
Qtr 3 PAT/Revenue-4.5%(18,067/401,445) EPS 5.72c(Must exclude over provision in prior year-past)

Annjoo P/E-9.53
LionInd P/E-7.15
Ssteel P/E-7.07
So Masteel P/E

EPS-19c{(14M+10.5M+18M+18M)/316M}x PE8=RM1.52

Some will argue say TYY RESOURCES SDN. BHD bought 2mil share on 17/01/2018, but what is the deal? the deal is 2Million share at RM 1.51/share.
http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=1028977

Resale treasury share-Just like trading, Buy low Sell high.

Scenario, Supermax share buy back 9 million unit between 1.70-2.00 because they value their company is still undervalue. Same goes to Masteel, entry price maybe just 50c/share or even lower, but why they choose to dispose if the company performance is good enough?(Insider know better)

Good Luck.

2017
Qtr 1 PAT/Revenue-4%,EPS 4.46c
Qtr 2 PAT/Revenue-3.64% EPS 3.35c
Qtr 3 PAT/Revenue-4.5%(18,067/401,445) EPS 5.72c(Must exclude over provision in prior year-past)

Assume Qtr 4 revenue 400mil
PAT%-4%-
PAT=16,000=EPS 5.07c

Annjoo P/E-10.2
LionInd P/E-7.16
Ssteel P/E-7.47
So Masteel P/E ?

EPS-18.6c x 8x=RM1.49
EPS-18.6c x 10x=RM1.86


Pros
MYR strengthen will benefit Masteel perhaps.

Risks
1.Will steel price sustain at RM2700 level?
2.iron ore price shows increasing
3.Gas tariff hike

Based on the chart, Masteel my heading to 1.55-1.60 level.
Any sifu can advice should I sold my balance of Masteel as yesterday I had dumb half at RM 1.78.1.81.

Easy 30%, realize half.
Sense something unusual.

Posted by chanj > Jan 4, 2018 08:39 AM | Report Abuse

Young money show proof please. Tq

Go figure out, Google it please.

NAPHTHA price up from USD 575 to USD 595 from 01/01/2018

Good luck
Refinery counter is over, crack spread dropping.

Sold balance 10k unit. No hope.
Will collect back below RM 13.

Good luck guy.

Sold @14.423-30,000 unit. left 25% on hand.
Will collect back below RM 13.

Good luck guy

Please don't chase Heng yuan at this price level, perhaps can park Heng yuan at 10. 00 to 10 .20 but not 11.00. Purely based on TA.
Same goes to Pentron I bougth back at 11.20.
Choice is yours no right or wrong.