DJoker89 i know a bargain when i see one.

Chase buy last min, 5.74. Close at 5.75. Make 2 myvi.

Not bro. Prefer girl. I might be younger than all you guys

Alamak. This bunch, brain power can only masuk. TP:xxxxxxx

APA pun tak Boleh masuk...

I am girl. Told you guys long time what. Thread is too long. Everyone like Kuat spam. Cannot even finish reading.

Next time, we invest together. Can somebody take turn to do research???

I am also a girl, ok...I wished someone in forum can do all this research and i just read. I will be very happy.

manegto YTH888 if tis you had explained but still find very hard to understand by ppl, i salute them...i dun know wat to say

One of them is joyvest. Omg. She is noob. Better off i invest for her. Ask her buy.

Never do research, never chase buy, don’t have strategy, don’t know what she do

Joyvent am I seeing correctly....joyvest promoting

Hallelujah. U can helped...finally, now the horse want to drink

May 27, 2020 5:56 PM | Report Abuse

This is my assumption, Supermax is achieving the same profit as per last quarter Jan- March 2020. The mass of Covid Cases is April onwards.

To be really careful, I consider profit is constant in the coming 3 quarters. Therefore, EPS from Jan- Dec 2020 is assumed to be 5.42 x 4 = 21.68.

At current price, forward PE of 26.48 (5.75 / 0.2168) is really cheap.

Price = Future PE
6.00 = 27
6.20 = 28.59
6.50 = 29.98
6.80 = 31.36
7.00 = 32.28
7.20 = 33.21
7.50 = 34.59
7.80 = 35.97
8.00 = 36.90
8.20 = 37.82
8.50 = 39.20
8.80 = 40.59

You can see what PE you want to exit or enter or what PE you are willing to pay.

Quarter ending 31 March 2020
EPS / NP Margin / ROE / past 4 qtr PE
Supermax 5.42 / 16.18% / 5.90% / 55.46
Kossan 5.07/ 10.67% / 4.37% / 46.87
Harta 3.43 / 14.97% / 4.58% / 77.86
Top Glove 4.52 / 9.43% / 2.92% / 79.53 (result out next month)

Average PE of all four glove player = 64.93
At PE 64.93, price should be RM14.

Let’s just discount the PE at 20% for all the hype and overvaluation = PE realistically should be 51.30 end of 4 quarters

PE x EPS 51.30 x 0.2168 = price should RM11.12

ASSUMPTION
1. EPS is constant for 3 quarters
2. Hype and overvaluation, therefore, discount 20% of the PE.

I believe my calculation is very conservative and cautious.

Therefore, smart investor are putting huge funds in Supermax now. As the time goes, they sell of 30%-50% to realise cash profit. Finally, leaving 50%-70% to run its course.




——————————————————————————————————————————-
More explanation
Let’s say you think that 20% discount of PE is not fair or you don’t feel safe.

You can discount the PE by 30-50% or more,

Discount
20%- PE 51/TP 11.12/ Profit 93%
25% - PE 48/ TP 10.40/ Profit 80%
30% - PE 45/ TP 9.75/ Profit 69%
40% - PE 38/ TP 8.23 / Profit 43%
50% - PE 32/ TP 6.93/ Profit 20%

This is how they come out with your Target price.

That is why I think big funds will come in and happily make 20% profit.

I think PE 32 for a glove defensive stock during pandemic is an absolute bargain!

Also, you must remember that I discounted the current average PE of all the top 4 glove shares by 50% just in case, you think that it is overvalued. Not need for me to check the Weighted average for the whole glove industry.

I think I am beyond conservative and ambitious. PE discounted by 50%, you don’t feel safe, I don’t know what to say.





——————————————————————————————————————————-


Let’s all be logical

We all know the result for quarter ending March 2020

Market Capitalization / Profit March 2020/ Benchmark to Harta
Supermax 8733 Mill/ 71,056 Mil / 61%
Harta 36,762 Mill /115,579 Mil/ 100%
Kossan 11,344 Mil/ 64,903 Mil / 53%
We cannot count top glove because we don’t know the result

Market cap detemines How much the company should be sold for.

Supermax achieve 61% of Harta Earnings in the last quarter
Kossan achieve 53% of Harta Earnings.

Market capitalization for Supermax should be 61% of Harta at 36,762 mil x 61%= 22,424 Mil

Now market cap supermax is 8733 Mil. The variance between supermax market cap now and target market cap is 22,424 Mil- 8733 Mil = 13691 Mil

Let’s calculate to price
The formula to calculate price is market capitalization divided by number of outstanding share.

22,424 Mil / 1360 Mil share= RM16.48

————————————————————————
Overvaluation and hype

Let’s be very safe and conservative and for any under foreseen circumstances, Let’s discount.

Price should be after:
Discount 20% = RM13.19
Discount 30% = RM 11.53
Discount 40% = RM 9.88
Discount 50% = RM 8.24


————————————————————————
Logically earning determines how much the company’s should be worth.

If I bought a business that makes 200k a year, Valued at RM1 MIL

Let’s say I made the business make 400k, I should sell My business for RM2 mil.

Would you sell a business that made 400k for one mill, you wouldn’t.
—————————-—————————————————-

There’s a big gap with How much harta is worth and supermax is worth.

Almost 4.2 times the value, when supermax achieve 61% of Harta’s earning.

Based on this, either Harta has to be worth 16B or Supermax has to be worth 8B

Or harta worth 36B and supermax worth 16B.

Can Harta drop a bit and Supermax come up and meet in the middle?

Why so many new people?

Want a piece of the action.

Queue RM7.00 tomorrow, then it is yours.

Freetospeak i agree,

We are far behind 9.3B to 36B market cap in Harta.

We should be 22B

Need to Jia you.

Because if undervalued, everyone grab.

Then, price fly very fast. If you let go of undervalued position, you enter a higher PE and higher price.

PRICE TO BOOK RATIO
————————————————————————————————-
Over the weekend. I have valued Supermax according to their net asset.

The best way to value Supermax is from the earning, not from net asset.

Net asset value is suitable for plantation, gold jewellery, heavy asset, property and airline.
Net asset value does not consider goodwill, patent, intangible assets and market share.

I tried to value from NAPS (net asset value per share) and P/NAPS (price to net asset) sometimes referred as price to book ratio.

Per share, investor get:
Harta RM0.75 dollar of asset
Top Glove RM0.95 dollar of asset
Kossan RM1.11 dollar of asset
Supermax RM0.80 dollar of asset

In this economic climate, very hard to value a company with net asset because the asset cannot be translated into cash.

Sometimes value investor seek out business that has asset larger than their share price.

But in Covid situation where cash is tight and plausible ways to raise cash is limited, the best way to value a company is by its earning.

For example, Genting has a lot of assets and has a high price to book ratio. Meaning that they are undervalued compare to their assets that they own.

But Genting has no plausible way to make earning for investor. Hence their Price to earning ratio is negative. Investor can gamble and buy a company with many assets but no cash. No cash means that they run the risk of bankruptcy or in need of government bailout.

Investor can buy Supermax which has less assets compare to Genting but generated earnings of RM71,056,000 per quarter. Supermax is a CASH COW.

Your choice.

Abn10 a cow that generate cash or make profit. No other company in Malaysia has a 100% growth quarter to quarter earnings in this economic climate.

My projection on PE came true today
50% - PE 32/ TP 6.93/ Profit 20%

My Projection on market cap will come true. This week or early next week.
Discount 50% = RM 8.24

Thinking sure up.

Harta 10.00 closing on Friday. Hit 10.88 (up 8.80%)
Top glove 11.82 closing on Friday. Hit 12.86 (up 8.80%)
Kossan 8.42 closing on Friday. Hit 8.88 (up 4.96%)
Supermax 5.75 closing on Friday. Hit 6.90 (up 20%)

Good run. Undervalued will always run faster than the overvalue to reach equilibrium.

Another week of running should be equilibrium.

Then, i will pass to my brother freetospeak to unleash the OBM potential of Supermax. It will hit 140-200 according to his calculation. Currently we are 71.

Good to see my projection coming true.

Joyvest Pandai pusing.

27-May-2020 Insider MISS CECILE JACLYN THAI (a company director) acquired 100,000 shares on 27-May-2020

100,000 x RM6.90 =RM690,000


They know that it is undervalued for the performance.

Don’t say I never warn. Tomorrow or day after, reach my 50% discount market Cap at RM8.24.

Joyvest queue tonight and buy tomorrow, you will regret if u didn’t tomorrow night

Definitely supermax

Comfort director is dumping share everyday. Don’t buy Comfort

This is my assumption, Supermax is achieving the same profit as per last quarter Jan- March 2020. The mass of Covid Cases is April onwards.

To be really careful, I consider profit is constant in the coming 3 quarters. Therefore, EPS from Jan- Dec 2020 is assumed to be 5.42 x 4 = 21.68.

At current price, forward PE of 26.48 (5.75 / 0.2168) is really cheap.

Price = Future PE
6.00 = 27
6.20 = 28.59
6.50 = 29.98
6.80 = 31.36
7.00 = 32.28
7.20 = 33.21
7.50 = 34.59
7.80 = 35.97
8.00 = 36.90
8.20 = 37.82
8.50 = 39.20
8.80 = 40.59

You can see what PE you want to exit or enter or what PE you are willing to pay.

Quarter ending 31 March 2020
EPS / NP Margin / ROE / past 4 qtr PE
Supermax 5.42 / 16.18% / 5.90% / 55.46
Kossan 5.07/ 10.67% / 4.37% / 46.87
Harta 3.43 / 14.97% / 4.58% / 77.86
Top Glove 4.52 / 9.43% / 2.92% / 79.53 (result out next month)

Average PE of all four glove player = 64.93
At PE 64.93, price should be RM14.

Let’s just discount the PE at 20% for all the hype and overvaluation = PE realistically should be 51.30 end of 4 quarters

PE x EPS 51.30 x 0.2168 = price should RM11.12

ASSUMPTION
1. EPS is constant for 3 quarters
2. Hype and overvaluation, therefore, discount 20% of the PE.

I believe my calculation is very conservative and cautious.

Therefore, smart investor are putting huge funds in Supermax now. As the time goes, they sell of 30%-50% to realise cash profit. Finally, leaving 50%-70% to run its course.

——————————————————————————————————————————-
More explanation
Let’s say you think that 20% discount of PE is not fair or you don’t feel safe.

You can discount the PE by 30-50% or more,

Discount
20%- PE 51/TP 11.12/ Profit 93%
25% - PE 48/ TP 10.40/ Profit 80%
30% - PE 45/ TP 9.75/ Profit 69%
40% - PE 38/ TP 8.23 / Profit 43%
50% - PE 32/ TP 6.93/ Profit 20%

This is how they come out with your Target price.

That is why I think big funds will come in and happily make 20% profit.

I think PE 32 for a glove defensive stock during pandemic is an absolute bargain!

Also, you must remember that I discounted the current average PE of all the top 4 glove shares by 50% just in case, you think that it is overvalued. Not need for me to check the Weighted average for the whole glove industry.

I think I am beyond conservative and ambitious. PE discounted by 50%, you don’t feel safe, I don’t know what to say.



——————————————————————————————————————————-


Let’s all be logical

We all know the result for quarter ending March 2020

Market Capitalization / Profit March 2020/ Benchmark to Harta
Supermax 8733 Mill/ 71,056 Mil / 61%
Harta 36,762 Mill /115,579 Mil/ 100%
Kossan 11,344 Mil/ 64,903 Mil / 53%
We cannot count top glove because we don’t know the result

Market cap detemines How much the company should be sold for.

Supermax achieve 61% of Harta Earnings in the last quarter
Kossan achieve 53% of Harta Earnings.

Market capitalization for Supermax should be 61% of Harta at 36,762 mil x 61%= 22,424 Mil

Now market cap supermax is 8733 Mil. The variance between supermax market cap now and target market cap is 22,424 Mil- 8733 Mil = 13691 Mil

Let’s calculate to price
The formula to calculate price is market capitalization divided by number of outstanding share.

22,424 Mil / 1360 Mil share= RM16.48

————————————————————————
Overvaluation and hype

Let’s be very safe and conservative and for any under foreseen circumstances, Let’s discount.

Price should be after:
Discount 20% = RM13.19
Discount 30% = RM 11.53
Discount 40% = RM 9.88
Discount 50% = RM 8.24


————————————————————————
Logically earning determines how much the company’s should be worth.

If I bought a business that makes 200k a year, Valued at RM1 MIL

Let’s say I made the business make 400k, I should sell My business for RM2 mil.

Would you sell a business that made 400k for one mill, you wouldn’t.
—————-l———————————————————-

There’s a big gap with How much harta is worth and supermax is worth.

Almost 4.2 times the value, when supermax achieve 61% of Harta’s earning.

Based on this, either Harta has to be worth 16B or Supermax has to be worth 8B

Or harta worth 36B and supermax worth 16B.

Can Harta drop a bit and Supermax come up and meet in the middle?

I have 2 Myvi now.

Fundamental memang strong. Study hard. Research hard, this is research money.

Fills my MCO- nothing-to-do time.

Bayfly are u happy ? I am leaving my money here.

Tomorrow big fund top up again. Batfly

Fundamental too beautiful. Safety margin too good.

Bearvsbull bendia people already millions in this.
You are late. Queue tomorrow tonight early. Buy 7.00 and tomorrow close at 7.50. Maybe ideas lucky RM8 tomorrow night.

Good run, guys. 20% in one days.

Fundamental memang stronger than speculations.

My accountant seen my figures and agree before I posted.

Because people want to make sure they get in before tomorrow. Another 10% tomorrow.

I tried to playing mother Theresa in Harta. All retail sold also drop less 5%. Later afternoon, up 8% Back.

1) no play to park money
2) this can raise money faster than loan.
3) businessman all locked at home because very rich. Therefore, scared to die.
The rich people view money is a way for them to enjoy life and to release the time. If infected, then there is no way to enjoy life.
4) 100% growth on profit
5) enough margin of safety.
6) sure profit result by glove player.

Joyvest, one day up 15%.
100% growth on profit, can drop, dream on.

Joyvest, Tomorrow up another 8-10%.
I want to buy two birkin with the money.

People want to help you, you don’t want. Some people deserve not to be helped.

Djoker Friday closing price at 5.75.

I chase the price and buy at 5.74.

Today new myvi

Jack khan, you see tomorrow. The power come.

I tested the correction in glove with Harta, only drop 5% from 9.19 to 8.50 for three hours and the result is so bad.

People also stick with glove. That day close higher at 9.50.

Freetospeak i actually did organise my fund with the Harta, kossan, top glove, comfort and supermax. At first, it was 100k Harta, TG 50k, Comfort 30k, Supermax 50K.

I was curious of supermax earnings after I check out Kossan earning. Found out 100% growth on profit. I chase the price and buy.

Sold harta and Kossan and comfort. I shuffle become Supermax 280k and TG 50k.

Everyone be careful of comfort, director is disposing share everyday.

U never see the trend in the prices. It is an uptrend. Only 2 days out of 15 days, it closes a drop -0.84% and -4.71%.

Always go up. Just hold. 13 days always up.

Why? Because fundamental is there, profit, eps, ROE all very good.

If fundamental is not there, it will drop at the 7th or 8th day. Investor buy value. The margin of safety has to be there.

Buying supermax never eats in to your capital.

How to make money like this, if you fight the trend

Date Open Range Close Change
22/05/2020 5.49 5.28 - 5.88 5.75 +0.35 (6.48%) 38,324,100
21/05/2020 5.00 5.00 - 5.49 5.40 +0.81 (17.65%) 43,760,600
20/05/2020 4.40 4.33 - 4.62 4.59 +0.34 (8.00%) 27,257,600
19/05/2020 4.37 3.90 - 4.42 4.25 -0.21 (4.71%) 39,498,500
18/05/2020 4.06 4.03 - 4.46 4.46 +0.49 (12.34%) 33,452,300
15/05/2020 4.00 3.85 - 4.03 3.97 +0.10 (2.58%) 26,032,300
14/05/2020 3.61 3.40 - 3.91 3.87 +0.27 (7.50%) 36,662,400
13/05/2020 3.45 3.10 - 3.99 3.60 +0.17 (4.96%) 48,950,000
12/05/2020 3.06 3.06 - 3.55 3.43 +0.45 (15.10%) 32,213,200
08/05/2020 2.94 2.91 - 3.02 2.98 +0.12 (4.20%) 23,646,600
06/05/2020 2.67 2.67 - 2.87 2.86 +0.21 (7.92%) 23,266,600
05/05/2020 2.60 2.56 - 2.68 2.65 +0.06 (2.32%) 13,999,400
04/05/2020 2.47 2.45 - 2.59 2.59 +0.11 (4.44%) 18,544,700
30/04/2020 2.38 2.36 - 2.48 2.48 +0.12 (5.08%) 23,567,800
29/04/2020 2.42 2.32 - 2.43 2.36 -0.02 (0.84%)

DJoker89 you are funny

Joyvest read my past comments. You never learn. Betting on a current financial result is safest. No need to do projection.

I know how to value past earning to market value, I need my brother freetospeak to project our earning. I trust his acumen.

2721
me

Harta result wasn’t good, Kossan also so-so, so everyone was wary at that time.

@ crimson13

Because I terrorise Harta. Harta results came first, then, kossan, then supermax.

Harta result wasn’t good 121 to 115 so everyone take profit and run from glove.

Because, I personally cannot put my money in something that makes EPS 3.43 and contribute to 36B of market value. I believe that Harta is overvalued and Supermax is undervalued.

Harta needs to come down a bit and Supermax needs to come up. 61% of Harta‘s earning should be worth 61% of Harta value now, 22B.









Stock: [HARTA]: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
May 19, 2020 10:02 PM | Report Abuse

Harta is the head of the dragon. Last to surge, last to drop as Harta mainly comprise of institutional investor. Meanwhile, other counters has more retail investors. Thereby, the surge for smaller players are bigger and drop is also larger. It is harder to manipulate big players than the small players. It takes many bull days in smaller counter before it hits bull in Harta.

Also, PEx70 for some of the glove counter is too bullish.

Chart the graph for all the glove players. Trend them together. Compare them.

Just look at the 1 month graph pattern for all the glove players. You can all analyse the graph pattern.

Today’s single day drop
Harta down 1.31%
Top Glove down 0.19%
Comfort down 8.07%
Supermax down 4.71%
Kossan down 1.84%


Stock: [HARTA]: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
May 19, 2020 9:12 PM | Report Abuse

Glove makers fall on profit taking
Author: savemalaysia | Publish date: Tue, 19 May 2020, 11:46 AM

KUALA LUMPUR (May 19): Glove makers' shares hit a speed bump on profit taking and a firmer ringgit this morning, following a bullish run on the back of unprecedented global demand brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, Hartalega Holdings Bhd, Supermax Corp Bhd and Comfort Glove Bhd led decliners on Bursa Malaysia this morning.

At 9.45am, Top Glove was down 28 sen or 2.67% at RM10.22, while Hartalega Holdings Bhd fell 28 sen or 3.07% to RM8.85. Kossan lost 39 sen or 5.05% to RM7.34, Supermax slipped 19 sen or 4.26% to RM4.72 and Comfort Glove was down 10 sen or 4.48% at RM2.13.

Other glovemakers that were also in the red included Rubberex Corp (M) Bhd, which was down 10 sen or 5.26% to RM1.80, while Careplus Group Bhd fell five sen or 5.85% to 80.5 sen.

Year to date (YTD), however, Hartalega is up 61.5% while Careplus has gained 403.13%.

In the currency market, the ringgit strengthened to 4.35 against the US dollar at 10.10am. The exchange rate so far today was between 4.3393 and 4.3550. The ringgit has strengthened 2.18% against the US dollar since its weakest point at 4.4470 on March 23.

YTD, the ringgit has depreciated 6.33% against the greenback, from 4.0910 on Dec 31, 2019.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/glove-makers-fall-profit-taking

Let’s all be logical

We all know the result for quarter ending March 2020

Market Capitalization / Profit March 2020/ Benchmark to Harta
Supermax 8733 Mill/ 71,056 Mil / 61%
Harta 36,762 Mill /115,579 Mil/ 100%
Kossan 11,344 Mil/ 64,903 Mil / 53%
We cannot count top glove because we don’t know the result

Market cap detemines How much the company should be sold for.

Supermax achieve 61% of Harta Earnings in the last quarter
Kossan achieve 53% of Harta Earnings.

Market capitalization for Supermax should be 61% of Harta at 36,762 mil x 61%= 22,424 Mil

Now market cap supermax is 8733 Mil. The variance between supermax market cap now and target market cap is 22,424 Mil- 8733 Mil = 13691 Mil

Let’s calculate to price
The formula to calculate price is market capitalization divided by number of outstanding share.

22,424 Mil / 1360 Mil share= RM16.48

————————————————————————
Overvaluation and hype

Let’s be very safe and conservative and for any under foreseen circumstances, Let’s discount.

Price should be after:
Discount 20% = RM13.19
Discount 30% = RM 11.53
Discount 40% = RM 9.88
Discount 50% = RM 8.24


————————————————————————
Logically earning determines how much the company’s should be worth.

If I bought a business that makes 200k a year, Valued at RM1 MIL

Let’s say I made the business make 400k, I should sell My business for RM2 mil.

Would you sell a business that made 400k for one mill, you wouldn’t.
—————-l———————————————————-

There’s a big gap with How much harta is worth and supermax is worth.

Almost 4.2 times the value, when supermax achieve 61% of Harta’s earning.

Based on this, either Harta has to be worth 16B or Supermax has to be worth 8B

Or harta worth 36B and supermax worth 16B.

Can Harta drop a bit and Supermax come up and meet in the middle?

Cannot advise on tp. See free to speak and joyvest and talib and my past thread. Form your own decision.

Just read the fundamental and base your decision on your own research.

Same thing with me with harta. Bought 7.30. Took profit at 9.34.

Now already RM11

On Friday, supermax price goes from 5.60-5.75. I was chasing the price to secure at 5.74.

If u watch this Friday, you will smile at the profit.

Joyvest it is not easy come money. We put in time to really do month of research. It is research pay.

Tomorrow another 10% up. Big funds want to take 20% profit.

You got make money or not ???

No look at my calculation and free to speak calculation. We are both very careful because we play with huge money and we won’t dare give advice if we are not certain.

Joyvest I spend a long time explaining to you. You better have bought something.

You send me cimb CIGS report.

This money won’t be enough for me to retire. I am only 30.

Thanks, free to speak. You help me a lot