Kata888
I will look into my valuation over tonight. I already discount by 20% PE conservatively and assume constant sales throughout.

I will include forex and derivatives risk in it tonight.

But if PE is 35 and price is 7.80.

It is also a fairly priced stock.

Freetospeak

I didn’t even project the sales to increase.

I just assume that it remain constant for four quarter

Minyang86 for Harta?

Wongtyy I did projection of sales and profit for Harta. Cannot justify my projection.

Price is an indication of valuation in the long run, not the short term.

We should never see a stock with price as indication of how much they are worth.

That is the primary reason why so many lose money in the stock market. They cannot take the black swan events and small price volatility.

Value the company and then, realistically discount to get a better idea.

At least 4.50.

The reason i sold Harta was because I didn’t get the EPS that I wanted to continue to hold abeit all the hype and overvaluation. Therefore, there should be 20% discount for the overvaluation.

I cannot depend on projection of sales and profit to make my decision.

We should start seeing large funds coming in from now.

This is my assumption, Supermax is achieving the same profit as per last quarter Jan- March 2020. The mass of Covid Cases is April onwards.

To be really careful, I consider profit is constant in the coming 3 quarters. Therefore, EPS from Jan- Dec 2020 is assumed to be 5.42 x 4 = 21.68.

At current price, forward PE of 26.48 (5.74 / 0.2168) is really cheap.

Price Future PE
6. = 27
6.20 = 28.59
6.50 = 29.98
6.80 = 31.36
7.00 = 32.28
7.20 = 33.21
7.50 = 34.59
7.80 = 35.97
8.00 = 36.90
8.20 = 37.82
8.50 = 39.20
8.80 = 40.59

You can see what PE you want to exit or enter or what PE you are willing to pay.

Quarter ending 31 March 2020
EPS / NP Margin / ROE / past 4 qtr PE
Supermax 5.42 / 16.18% / 5.90% / 55.46
Kossan 5.07/ 10.67% / 4.37% / 46.87
Harta 3.43 / 14.97% / 4.58% / 77.86
Top Glove 4.52 / 9.43% / 2.92% / 79.53 (result out next month)

Average PE of all four glove player = 64.93
At PE 64.93, price should be RM14.

Let’s just discount the PE at 20% for all the hype and overvaluation = PE realistically should be 51.30 end of 4 quarters

PE x EPS 51.30 x 0.2168 = price should RM11.12

ASSUMPTION
1. EPS is constant for 3 quarters
2. Hype and overvaluation, therefore, discount 20% of the PE.

I believe my calculation is very conservative and cautious.

Therefore, smart investor are putting huge funds in Supermax now. As the time goes, they sell of 30%-50% to realise cash profit. Finally, leaving 50%-70% to run its course.

Quarter ending 31 March 2020
EPS / NP Margin / ROE / PE

Supermax 5.42 / 16.18% / 5.90% / 55.46
Kossan 5.07/ 10.67% / 4.37% / 46.87
Harta 3.43 / 14.97% / 4.58% / 77.86
Top Glove 4.52 / 9.43% / 2.92% / 79.53 (result out next month)

Supermax has the highest Earnings per share and best net profit margin, best Return of equity.

PE is acceptable compare to Harta and Top Glove.

Analyse all these and then, you can tell me which one you buy.

@lazycat

Quarter ending 31 March 2020
Supermax EPS 5.42
Kossan EPS 5.07
Harta EPS 3.43

Whose EPS good, I keep who. Supermax highest, of course I keep supermax.

Learn how to value a company first before you say anything.

I won’t complain about the price. Because the potential is there.

@lazycat

Just remember Supermax net profit is 100% increase compare last quarter.

Valid reason to buy supermax and wait for more people to come in and make money.

Demand > supply

Price Go UP.

We all did our research before we buy.

This is not Goreng or Gamble.

@dickson somemore, there is no particular good news for Harta on the night before.

Just the quarter result that Will be release three days later.

Abnormal increase, sure Need to tell in the forum.

@dickson2u
I was confused as Harta was a long term investment for me. Everyday up 1-4% max.

Abnormal because I hold Harta for a while.

Suddenly 17% over night. Shock of my Life. Of course, i want to save the investor.

See now Harta up so slow.

Of all the glove counter, Supermax is the safest.

You see me up 8%-10% on Wednesday. Yahoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pent11
I am waiting for shark, institutional investor or super safe investor to buy supermax. All the other market crash even better. SME close down even better.

No way to raise cash. All come here.

Glove won’t crash. When Harta profit result from 121 to 115, the price never drop below 5%. Rebound the 3 hours. Back stronger.

Supermax result is 100% increase compared to last quarter, price can drop.

My foot!!!

Another one you can do, is lending to the SME who need cash. But you need a license.

Shark cannot get money from buying other stock. Shark will park money in Supermax. Made money and come back again for more. So to make money in stock market, you have to be optimistic.

Go in and out (contra player) can only make so much.

All the other stock all red. Where to go, buy Gold, buy glove or keep cash

Talib Please don’t waste your time here. The people who invest in Supermax is the super smart.

If you don’t think supermax has value, you won’t waste your time to bad mouth here.

Either join us or shut up, we made more research than you to park our money here.

Lanesra, free to speak. You guys are right.

My fund manager is busy raising fund. His glove investment profit is seven figures already and not letting go. Only in his portfolios glove and one other stock that are still bought at high.


Fund manager need to make the money or else, they will lose their credibility.

The smart money is coming to Supermax because the prospect is proven.

Chi1989 even if I just bought both today, laugh my way to the bank

Chi1989 Need to watch or not ?

Newbie099 made millions with supermax!!!!need to treat !!!

Kata888 no need pray, once drop a bit, all of us want sapu cheap la. 100% profit compare to last quarter also need to pray.

Supermax like fixed deposit with small and big orgasm daily.

I heard that bank give very high FD rate. About 1% per month. 12-13% per year. So that they can use your money to play Glove share.


I have a 19 stocks that i own. Return less than 10% for all. Except glove. Safe ride for all.

Our price graph is like the Covid infection graph.

Nothing outbeats glove. Defensive stock, dividend stock la.

Keep cash or invest in glove

Anyone buy supermax, will smile when see bank account.
Talib you don’t understand how it feels like.

You see me up 10% on wednesday, then, u will regret

Highest flyer on bursa. Not worth to keep.

Impossible i keep tortoise

You know how Gan jeong, is our forum compare to other glove.

See people come and want you to sell cheap

drop 10%, you cut loss. but,
you already make 17% and 6% the day before.
you still net 13%.

You still make from the uptrend. So need to hold to reap the benefit.

Risk minimise because the quarter result is superb. More big player will come in because they view this as a safe haven compared to other glove.

If u hold， The big player come and play。

Hold until second time lock down..TP RM7.50

What i mean is don’t cut loss. Because once u exit, u pay higher price to in to play again. Applies for contra player

sometimes
something cheap is not good.

if something good sure, not cheap.

it is like hoping for ipoh real estate price in KL. possible or not??????

no such durian runtuh!!!!!

if you are willing to pay KL real estate price, then, you growth is significantly faster than your Ipoh real estate.

understand this theory, don't simply let go.

if you got cash, put in more on slow days.

drop 10%, you cut loss. but,
you already make 17% and 6% the day before.
you still net 13%.

freetospeak good anaysis

supermax is the way the business cover for their hole or raise emergency fund. up 17% and up 6%
even better than their net profit sometimes. All those bank closing their cash pipe soon.

They will bet on sure thing.

they are like me. very cautious.

hope supermax make more for me. i will put more cash next week;)

last time, i am investor, i like Harta because no heart attack. long run mah. suddenly heart attack everyday. tell you guys, got problem.i scared.

I go in other forum, found you guys there.

alamak!!! aiya, no need you guys the risk, you all more experienced than me. hahahaha. i am the newbie compared to you all.

salute guys. ong. heng, huat ar.

genting now maybe want to come in and play supermax while he need to use the money to cover for his hole in his pocket.

hahaha!!!

joyvest, i will make a lot while u keep waiting in genting.

it is genting berhad or genting

thank you, OTB sifu for your sleepless night.

i have had sleepless night with Harta. just switched.

i am new to this forum. hard to find forum, which include dick, musical chair, liverpool.

geng!!

joyvest you make me laugh!!!!1

everyone from Harta and Kossan already switch to Supermax because of the superb result. Felt cheated for the excitement.

demand more supply. price go up!!!!

gooshem good luck if u can collect cheap

Do you know how ridiculous it is?

if glove share like supermax which achieve 100% increase in profit can plummet like heng yuan in the midst of a pandemic!!!!
So funny.


i don't play with money or uncalculated risk.

don't buy today, on wednesday, 10% up again.

i think after the 4 days break, the queue to buy will be crazy. buy now, secure a good price.

EPF and institutional investor based Target price on historical result. They need to make sure that the fund is secure.

Hence, whose result nice, they buy who.

They are not worried about projections of sales and profit.

They have to keep 90% funds invested.

hi, how to receive the report

i got another 50k on top glove. 280k on supermax. i also don't know how to divide.

who to put in my basket.

i really don't hope for second lockdown.

dickson2u you don't know our expenses. not enough la.

even with 10% loss also, i will hold. I am betting on the inefficient government, consumer fear, covid cases to 15-20mil and 2nd lockdown.

i bet big on Supermax. 300k on supermax.