Joyvest, did u buy supermax?? I hope u did???

Happy to see you guys make money

We all should go out celebrate after CMCO. All winners.

If you all sell down now, when it reach 6.93, you will beat yourself. This is conservatively RM6.93.

Potential to reach RM8.23- RM11.12

You won’t buy again the stock after you sell.

Thank you free to speak. Very conservative calculation. Thank you, Muacks.

Posted by YTH888 > May 25, 2020 12:07 AM | Report Abuse X

Can anyone verify this? Anyone did this with supermax before??

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This is my assumption, Supermax is achieving the same profit as per last quarter Jan- March 2020. The mass of Covid Cases is April onwards.

To be really careful, I consider profit is constant in the coming 3 quarters. Therefore, EPS from Jan- Dec 2020 is assumed to be 5.42 x 4 = 21.68.

At current price, forward PE of 26.48 (5.75 / 0.2168) is really cheap.

Price = Future PE
6.00 = 27
6.20 = 28.59
6.50 = 29.98
6.80 = 31.36
7.00 = 32.28
7.20 = 33.21
7.50 = 34.59
7.80 = 35.97
8.00 = 36.90
8.20 = 37.82
8.50 = 39.20
8.80 = 40.59

You can see what PE you want to exit or enter or what PE you are willing to pay.

Quarter ending 31 March 2020
EPS / NP Margin / ROE / past 4 qtr PE
Supermax 5.42 / 16.18% / 5.90% / 55.46
Kossan 5.07/ 10.67% / 4.37% / 46.87
Harta 3.43 / 14.97% / 4.58% / 77.86
Top Glove 4.52 / 9.43% / 2.92% / 79.53 (result out next month)

Average PE of all four glove player = 64.93
At PE 64.93, price should be RM14.

Let’s just discount the PE at 20% for all the hype and overvaluation = PE realistically should be 51.30 end of 4 quarters

PE x EPS 51.30 x 0.2168 = price should RM11.12

ASSUMPTION
1. EPS is constant for 3 quarters
2. Hype and overvaluation, therefore, discount 20% of the PE.

I believe my calculation is very conservative and cautious.

Therefore, smart investor are putting huge funds in Supermax now. As the time goes, they sell of 30%-50% to realise cash profit. Finally, leaving 50%-70% to run its course.

——————————————————————————————————————————-
More explanation
Let’s say you think that 20% discount of PE is not fair or you don’t feel safe.

You can discount the PE by 30-50% or more,

Discount
20%- PE 51/TP 11.12/ Profit 93%
25% - PE 48/ TP 10.40/ Profit 80%
30% - PE 45/ TP 9.75/ Profit 69%
40% - PE 38/ TP 8.23 / Profit 43%
50% - PE 32/ TP 6.93/ Profit 20%

This is how they come out with your Target price.

That is why I think big funds will come in and happily make 20% profit.

I think PE 32 for a glove defensive stock during pandemic is an absolute bargain!

Also, you must remember that I discounted the current average PE of all the top 4 glove shares by 50% just in case, you think that it is overvalued. Not need for me to check the Weighted average for the whole glove industry.

I think I am beyond conservative and ambitious. PE discounted by 50%, you don’t feel safe, I don’t know what to say.

On Friday I bought at 5.74. The market close at 5.75

Joyvest

I manage your fund la. You in equity tak boleh Pakai.

I bought at all time high on Friday 5.74, play 280k.

Of course, I know what I am doing.

Everyone sell today will cry tomorrow

Joyvest , talib

You are not allowed here.

I bought on Friday and now already win 32k.

When it reach 100k profit, I will sell some.

My calculation for earning is very accurate. TP:6.92, PE discounted by 50%.

I calculated ratio while you sleep at home.

Huanji explain to me why continuous two day over 170 cases daily?

I was wondering what does haters want being on this forum 24/7.

Primary motive?

Since they are not in glove ?

Targeted
True. Oil is very dangerous. Plunge to negative. 1st time in history.

Play oil cannot sleep for sure.

The second lockdown was anticipated by lots of businessman already. It has been going around for a while.

China under report, why can’t we under report.

Under report, protects the economy. Recovery faster. Less losses.

But why after raya, suddenly cases spike?

Big question mark?

We will see on this Friday

My staff said his relative is big guy in police. They know things we don’t.

The real profit should Come after the PM announce for a second lockdown.

The inspector said that we under reported our cases due to Hari Raya and for some people to get some income before they lock everyone again.

It makes sense to me. No raya will have riots.

That 20% profit

Hi, kk7198

That is good news.

We can safely invest until my projection price at 6.93.

i wonder why is this forum so hype compare to other forum. so happening.

this week big funds come in bcause of superb result.

when the number of cases hits few days high, the govt will lockdown again.

just monitor 3-7 days of high cases, they will lockdown again.

the last time, govt took 2 days of high cases before MCO.

US serve a good example for us. If they don't lock the economy, the outcome of president/ PM is become the legendary mankiller. They won't risk it in Msia.

cases reported is not a good news for SME. induced fear, less spending.

glove is going be viewed as a safer haven for excess fund of SME owners.

hey guys, i have noticed that the cases of covid was
48 (2 day before)
60 (day before)
172 (yesterday)

please monitor the infection graph carefully as this could mean a second lockdown. thanks

wjng666 market is not open

Joyvest

50% - PE 32/ TP 6.93/ Profit 20%

Discount 50%, you also don’t feel fair. Then, discount 60%. Run at 10% profit.

The Covid cases changed many norms in our lives. With the COVID SOP of business and heightened Public health awareness, glove Will still be relevant.

My business is shut for three months because of this.
I just bought lots of 10 boxes supersafe glove, powdered, XL in preparation of my 20 shops opening.

There are many industry that thrive with COVID. Glove , fresh food, graphic design.

Dear Stevieman let’s just undervalue and over deliver, than, overvalue and under deliver.

My method is just one of the many way to value a company.

Can anyone share what how much supermax is worth? Using another different approach?

Then, i will average 3-4 different valuations using different approach and apply a discount.

It is appreciated. Thanks.

Also, we must remember growth for higher PE stock is expected. The higher your PE, the more you are expected to perform. Means growth component has to be there for the stock.

In short, you pay higher PE for stock who has growth prospect.

Can anyone verify this? Anyone did this with supermax before??

———————————————————————————————————————————-


This is my assumption, Supermax is achieving the same profit as per last quarter Jan- March 2020. The mass of Covid Cases is April onwards.

To be really careful, I consider profit is constant in the coming 3 quarters. Therefore, EPS from Jan- Dec 2020 is assumed to be 5.42 x 4 = 21.68.

At current price, forward PE of 26.48 (5.75 / 0.2168) is really cheap.

Price = Future PE
6.00 = 27
6.20 = 28.59
6.50 = 29.98
6.80 = 31.36
7.00 = 32.28
7.20 = 33.21
7.50 = 34.59
7.80 = 35.97
8.00 = 36.90
8.20 = 37.82
8.50 = 39.20
8.80 = 40.59

You can see what PE you want to exit or enter or what PE you are willing to pay.

Quarter ending 31 March 2020
EPS / NP Margin / ROE / past 4 qtr PE
Supermax 5.42 / 16.18% / 5.90% / 55.46
Kossan 5.07/ 10.67% / 4.37% / 46.87
Harta 3.43 / 14.97% / 4.58% / 77.86
Top Glove 4.52 / 9.43% / 2.92% / 79.53 (result out next month)

Average PE of all four glove player = 64.93
At PE 64.93, price should be RM14.

Let’s just discount the PE at 20% for all the hype and overvaluation = PE realistically should be 51.30 end of 4 quarters

PE x EPS 51.30 x 0.2168 = price should RM11.12

ASSUMPTION
1. EPS is constant for 3 quarters
2. Hype and overvaluation, therefore, discount 20% of the PE.

I believe my calculation is very conservative and cautious.

Therefore, smart investor are putting huge funds in Supermax now. As the time goes, they sell of 30%-50% to realise cash profit. Finally, leaving 50%-70% to run its course.

——————————————————————————————————————————-
More explanation
Let’s say you think that 20% discount of PE is not fair or you don’t feel safe.

You can discount the PE by 30-50% or more,

Discount
20%- PE 51/TP 11.12/ Profit 93%
25% - PE 48/ TP 10.40/ Profit 80%
30% - PE 45/ TP 9.75/ Profit 69%
40% - PE 38/ TP 8.23 / Profit 43%
50% - PE 32/ TP 6.93/ Profit 20%

This is how they come out with your Target price.

That is why I think big funds will come in and happily make 20% profit.

I think PE 32 for a glove defensive stock during pandemic is an absolute bargain!

Also, you must remember that I discounted the current average PE of all the top 4 glove shares by 50% just in case, you think that it is overvalued. Not need for me to check the Weighted average for the whole glove industry.

I think I am beyond conservative and ambitious. PE discounted by 50%, you don’t feel safe, I don’t know what to say.

Gtg, guy. I have better things to do than talk to half hearted people who don’t study.

TrippleZ obviously you never read your case.

100% increase in profit. Hello??????

Can Tesla achieve it?

Is supermax not high growth now, pandemic, hello??????

If you cannot value a company, i doubt people can make money on stock market in the long run. Don’t be a retail investor. Touch and go.

The quarter before was 34617 to 71056. Calculate the percent.

The PE is exactly the same reason that I decided to Sell Harta. The performance cannot justify me keeping the stock when I expect 76% profit rise based on the 76x PE. The performance 121 to 115.

Joyvest You do 1 month research and have sleepless nights with glove, instead of your honey.

Then, i would like to hear your research. Hahhahahahah

Roslan67

Good to share.

I have had sleepless night with PE, EPS, Profit projection of the glove shares.
that is why I made profit on Harta glove.

I count every single one of them. My entry price and my exit price.

Roslan67 that is why the price goes up so much in the past 2 days because Supermax is undervalued for its performance.

And imagine you hold the stock now at PE55,

When PE is 100. How rich will you be????????

PE measures how much expensive is the stock, if you paid an freaking expensive stock at PE 100. If the company cannot deliver for you. Will you sell your expensive stock?

The answer is YES.

Roslan because the PE is derived from 4 quarters past from 1 April 2019-31 March 2020. All the demand of the gloves comes after March 2020.

That is why it is not realised.

Joyvest
in equity, there is no benchmark for PE.

Harta at PE 76
Kejuruteraan Asastera PE 68
Nestle PE 51
QL Resource PE 57

KLCI whole market PE 17.40

Anything beyond PE 30 is considered expensive.

If you pay a stock at PE 30, you assume that the growth will be at 30% next quarter.

LIkewise, if the stock never deliver the result of 30%, there will be a correction in price. Unless, the company paints a nice picture of your future together. You will stick with the stock.

Also, if the stock can deliver 100% growth compare to last quarter, PE should be 100. If the PE is not 100, then, you got a bargain already.

Average PE of all four glove player = 64.93
At PE 64.93, price should be RM14.

Let’s just discount the PE at 20% for all the hype and overvaluation = PE realistically should be 51.30 end of 4 quarters

PE x EPS 51.30 x 0.2168 = price should RM11.12

ASSUMPTION
1. EPS is constant for 3 quarters
2. Hype and overvaluation, therefore, discount 20% of the PE.

=========================================================================

More explanation
Let’s say you think that 20% PE discount of PE is not fair or you don’t feel safe.

You can discount the PE by 30-50% or more,

20%- PE 51/TP 11.12/ Profit 93%
25% - PE 48/ TP 10.40/ Profit 80%
30% - PE 45/ TP 9.75/ Profit 69%
40% - PE 38/ TP 8.23 / Profit 43%
50% - PE 32/ TP 6.93/ Profit 20%

This is how they come out with your Target price.

That is why I think big funds will come in and happily make 20% profit.

I think PE 32 for a glove defensive stock during pandemic is an absolute bargain!

Also, you must remember that I discounted the current average PE of all the top 4 glove shares by 50% just in case, you think that it is overvalued. Not need for me to check the Weighted average for the whole glove industry.

I think I am beyond conservative and ambitious. PE discounted by 50%, you don’t feel safe, I don’t know what to say.

This is a sure win.

I hope my calculation is not too complicated.

I suggest maybe people who want to invest get all this information digested before they buy.

Because I used to do this with Harta. I bought the share at PE 50 and I exited at PE 75.

Batfly If eps is est. 21.68 and industry PE is 40, TP will be around 40 x 21.68 = rm8.67...is it right?


Yes , you are right. At 8.67-5.75 (price now)= 50% profit.

For a margin of safety, when you profit hits 20-25%, you should withdraw about 30-50%. Leave the rest, to run.

Then , you ask yourself the big question, what is my risk appetite?

If you don’t have risk appetite, sell all and go home and sleep.

Joyvest i repeat for you again.

To be really careful, I consider profit is constant in the coming 3 quarters. Therefore, EPS from Jan- Dec 2020 is assumed to be 5.42 x 4 Quarters = 21.68 EPS for 4 quarters

At current price of 5.75, forward PE of 26.48 (5.75/ 0.2168 EPS) is really cheap.

Then, you figure out whether you want to pay RM5.75 now to Get a stock which has a forward PE of 26.48 in Dec 2020.

Check out all the PE for some of the company you like to decide if PE 26 justifies for you.

Minyang86 I don’t know for top glove. I never study TG in depth. But for supermax. This is the time where the really big and safe investor come in.

We should see a jump in price because of their large fund.

Those are part of my workings for supermax.

Thanks kata888 for pointing out. Appreciate it.