T3 T4 effect.... could be the opportunity to get some

All these types of news and oil prices down to as low as 60 pbbl.. have already been priced in into the current price ler


I tell you what news will break Armada’s back la..... It is this........ errrrr... better not say ; ) Just hope that day never come....

In the process of producing crude, offshore oil producers use a lot of oil themselves..... as high as 75% of their total cost...

pputeh.... is it looking good for you??

Recent Prices

Date Open Range Close Change Volume


02/12/2014 1.05 1.01 - 1.07 1.05 +0.04 (3.96%) 65,372,700
01/12/2014 1.09 0.98 - 1.12 1.01 -0.14 (12.17%) 88,879,400
28/11/2014 1.19 1.12 - 1.21 1.15 -0.13 (10.16%) 62,519,100



Volume 65,372,700... 88,879,400... 62,519,100

T3, T4 may be huge selling pressure....... watch it

Think the price will linger around 1.00 - 1.10...


Go up 15% upon news break that some really high cost oil producers somewhere have gone belly up, kaput, called it a day, bye bye, mai yii liao, hai kam sin, tak sanggup lagi tak tertahan lagi........


Go up another 15% upon news break that some more medium to high cost oil producers somewhere have gone belly up, kaput, called it a day, bye bye, mai yii liao, hai kam sin, tak sanggup lagi tak tertahan lagi........


HaHa

There are a lot of high cost producers

Staring at certain death if they dont stop... without having to really set sight on the coffin. .. these high cost producers will promtly stop...... promtly stop or go bankrupt before 60 pb

Either way, the meaningful 4 millions bpd reduction will be achieved in no time.. and oil prices will go back up again.. and joys to the O&G world



Furthermore, the USA is gonna bomb the IS very soon... half a million bpd reduction there

When the dust has settled... and provided oil prices do not down to below 60 pb

I think Armada will settle at 1.25 to 1.35

Foreign funds dumping of O&G counters... ala all Asian is Japanese is over....

There are differentiation now

In fact think foreign funds dumping of O&G counters is more or less over....



And, investors have settled down and come to their senses... or a lot could be dead or half dead ; )

There are differentiation now


THHeavy is out

KNM is out



SKPetro not decided just yet as it is complicated... with it being associated with dirty words like exploration, oilfields, scandals etc.... and very likely a cash call soon



Dialog is in

UMWOG is in

Armada is in


But ARMADA has got the lowest PE and lowest P/Assets............ and secured contracts lasting the longest

Looks like this thingy has to run it's course...... whatever, no matter... I will stay the course


Going for a facial... this thing is starting to affect my complexion

Ya... Buy Armada.. Bumi Armada

So far volume quite ok

Think the selling pressure has been absorbed and the vicious cycle broken....





Posted by AhMoi > Dec 1, 2014 12:47 PM | Report Abuse X

Vicious cycle.... vicious cycle

Bout time heroes come in to put a stop to this......... else vicious cycle.. vicious cycle


EPF, Khazana, IMDB... well maybe not IMDB..... EPF, Khazana do your stuff

The fair TP of Bumi Armada is actually RM 1.77....


Of all the IBs TP, I trust PBB's TP at 1.77 the most because its "TP of RM1.77 is derived from our DCF approach"



To use DCF approach, the future cashflows must be pretty certain, and this certainty is assured by the very firm long-term contracts, typically 8-10 years, and substantially fixed price contracts that Armada entered into with its customers.





Outperform recommendation with TP of RM1.77 is derived from our DCF approach,


BAB is well positioned to continue reaping strong cashflows from their existing portfolio



.... we are maintaining our Outperform recommendation with TP of RM1.77 is derived from our DCF approach, implying a FY15F fwd-P/E of 15.5x. We remain positive on BAB, considering its major FPSO business to be less affected by oil price from its firm long-term contracts, secured with orderbook backlog of RM21.8bn coupled with additional RM11.8bn optional extension to reaffirm earnings. Whilst the broader market is plagued by softening oil price thus potential slowdown of E&P capital expenditures, we believe BAB is well positioned to continue reaping strong cashflows from their existing portfolio amid bidding for ongoing FPSO projects.

Buy Armada.. Bumi Armada

O.....ther are more high cost producers than expected

Staring at certain death if they dont stop... without having to really set sight on the coffin. .. these high cost producers will promtly stop...

And, the meaningful 4 millions bpd reduction will be achieved in no time.. and oil prices will go back up again.. and joys to the O&G world



Furthermore, the USA is gonna bomb the IS very soon... half a million bpd reduction there

AhMoi like Paco Rabanne perfume and do my hair at little Korean in Ampang..... Korean hairstyle of course... the one with big curls at the end...

25 wow I luv your dedication and loyalty

and even more so for your ability of not being able to see clearly...

Errr... you by any chance like a fellow girl?? Huh??? "wink" "wink" with left eye ; )

When most O&G counters have rebounded... but KNM drops 1%... looks like a bad boy with an attitude.. the type that I crazily luv 3 years ago ; )

LuoLi, want to wait.. plan to wait for how long?? ; )

when there is a drop of 4 millions bpd.... oil prices will go back up again

Most likely not.... it is actually your choice of O&G counter to buy ler... you know, a bit shaky on the FA side

15 year old Luoli, yes, age is on your side............... you can wait 10, 15 years alright ; )

PETRONAS IS DOING AUSTERITY......



Yesterday's drastic drop..................... thanks to Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas for saying DREAM ON!! DREAM ON!!


Take this as a caution not alarm......


It appears, even Pengerang is subject to review.... that is where KNM's dream and hope lie isn't it??




Posted by AhMoi > Nov 28, 2014 11:31 AM | Report Abuse X

Petronas which is set to re-evaluate its RM 300 billion capex programme will have major spillover effects for the oil & gas industry.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600064641.jsp



The way I see it the biggest threat to the local oil & gas companies will be the Malaysian government..... yes, the Malaysian government.


Recall that Petronas had applied to limit its dividend to the Malaysian government at 30% of its profit, but, was rejected.


Double whammy is............ with a lower income in years to come due to low oil & gas prices, yet, the Malaysian government will ask for more because Malaysia's most recent economy growth rate was below 6% and the future is challenging.


Soon, the RM 300 billion capex programme will be reduced to RM 100 billions and brings major negative spillover effects for the local oil & gas industry.


What do you think the future will be for local oil & gas companies when Petronas does austerity....

Those companies which have spent to buy oil & gas assets will be hit even more....


The BursaM's oil & gas counters all came to live all because of this RM 300 billions.... take the air out of the balloon.... what do you get??



What do you think the future will be for local oil & gas companies when Petronas does austerity???


Think and think harder


Take care

Of all the IBs TP, I trust PBB's TP at 1.77 the most because its "TP of RM1.77 is derived from our DCF approach"



To use DCF approach, the future cashflows must be pretty certain, and this certainty is assured by the very firm long-term contracts, typically 8-10 years, and substantially fixed price contracts that Armada entered into with its customers.








Outperform recommendation with TP of RM1.77 is derived from our DCF approach,


BAB is well positioned to continue reaping strong cashflows from their existing portfolio



.... we are maintaining our Outperform recommendation with TP of RM1.77 is derived from our DCF approach, implying a FY15F fwd-P/E of 15.5x. We remain positive on BAB, considering its major FPSO business to be less affected by oil price from its firm long-term contracts, secured with orderbook backlog of RM21.8bn coupled with additional RM11.8bn optional extension to reaffirm earnings. Whilst the broader market is plagued by softening oil price thus potential slowdown of E&P capital expenditures, we believe BAB is well positioned to continue reaping strong cashflows from their existing portfolio amid bidding for ongoing FPSO projects.

Don't hold your breath...

a reduction of 4 mils bpd..... not that difficult to achieve ler


and, the reduction will start very soon with... wih the IS..... the USA is loosing patient the IS which is gaining ground despite its effort so far...


So, the USA IS GOING TO BOMD THE IS.... TO BOMD THE IS VERY SOON


and, there you have it..... half a million bpd reduction

PETRONAS IS DOING AUSTERITY......



Yesterday's drastic drop..................... thanks to Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas for saying DREAM ON!! DREAM ON!!




Posted by AhMoi > Nov 28, 2014 11:31 AM | Report Abuse X

Petronas which is set to re-evaluate its RM 300 billion capex programme will have major spillover effects for the oil & gas industry.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600064641.jsp



The way I see it the biggest threat to the local oil & gas companies will be the Malaysian government..... yes, the Malaysian government.


Recall that Petronas had applied to limit its dividend to the Malaysian government at 30% of its profit, but, was rejected.


Double whammy is............ with a lower income in years to come due to low oil & gas prices, yet, the Malaysian government will ask for more because Malaysia's most recent economy growth rate was below 6% and the future is challenging.


Soon, the RM 300 billion capex programme will be reduced to RM 100 billions and brings major negative spillover effects for the local oil & gas industry.


What do you think the future will be for local oil & gas companies when Petronas does austerity....

Those companies which have spent to buy oil & gas assets will be hit even more....


The BursaM's oil & gas counters all came to live all because of this RM 300 billions.... take the air out of the balloon.... what do you get??



What do you think the future will be for local oil & gas companies when Petronas does austerity???


Think and think harder


Take care







DON'T WORRY... ARMADA IS NOT AFFECTED BY THIS PETRONA'S AUSTERITY AT ALL... AT ALL

unlike almost all the others

I am not saying Armada price will not drop, it is sentiment thingy of course you know... with this backdrop what I am saying is Armada would be the safest O&G counter to get into

a reduction of 4 mils bpd..... not that difficult to achieve ler

HaHa

Read somewhere, there must be a reduction of 4 mils bpd to have an impact on oil prices...

Think this can be achieved by those with breakeven more than 80 pb stopping production soon..

Think there is no need for oil prices to go below 60 pb before these people will stop... they know how to do the sums... no need to see the coffin first

The only thing we have to watch out is forced selling.... this can be mitigated by buying slowly

and, to me it is attractive now

I think Armada is the best among the O&G counters...... being the least affected by

Petronas' austerity, as it has not contract from Petronas

Drop in oil prices itself, as it has long term contracts lasting 8, 10 years with option to extend...

And, lower oil prices actually reduce its cost

I know... but same la... good for its customers good for Armada la

Armada business FPSO more la

AirAsia transports people by air planes


ARMADA transports oil and stuff by ships ie FPSO and OSV


Air planes and ships are driven and consume fuel ie oil, petrol...


If low oil prices is good for AirAsia, how can it not be good for ARMADA


Moreover, ARMADA's top line is secured by very long term contracts which are typically 8 to 10 years


Sales fixed at high prices, cost dropping.... you think about it whether the drop in ARMADA's price to current level is justifiable


After you have made your profit here, sell and move over to ARMADA

AirAsia transports people by air planes


ARMADA transports oil and stuff by ships ie FPSO and OSV


Air planes and ships are driven and consume fuel ie oil, petrol...


If low oil prices is good for AirAsia, how can it not be good for ARMADA


Moreover, ARMADA's top line is secured by very long term contracts which are typically 8 to 10 years


Sales fixed at high prices, cost dropping.... you think about it whether the drop in ARMADA's price to current level is justifiable

AirAsia transports people by air planes


ARMADA transports oil and stuff by ships ie FPSO and OSV


Air planes and ships are driven and consume fuel ie oil, petrol...


If low oil prices is good for AirAsia, how can it not be good for ARMADA


Moreover, ARMADA's top line is secured by very long term contracts which are typically 8 to 10 years


Sales fixed at high prices, cost dropping.... you think about it

AirAsia transports people by air planes


Armada transports oil and stuff by ships ie FPSO and OSV


Air planes and ships are driven and consume fuel ie oil, petrol...


If low oil prices is good for AirAsia, how can it not be good for Armada


Moreover, Armada top line is secured by very long term contracts which are typically 8 to 10 years


Sales fixed at high prices, cost dropping.... you think about it

And, HB being the CEO, of course, knows very well how good Armada is.......

that was why he loaded up himself with Armada upto the very max... took a loan and loaded up himself with Armada upto the max

Armada is good and he knows it...... but unfortunately Armada has been hit by an over-whelming outside force, at the moment

point is Armada

point is HB didn't sell voluntarily

CEO may be rich... millionaire even


But when you are dealing with Armada, you are dealing with very very very big figures... recall even Ananda K had to sell off part of his %


So, the CEO, in order to take up his ESOS, Rights Issue, he must have taken a loan... and, this loan is killing him, killing him quickly now


HB didn't sell voluntarily, he is being subjected to FORCED SELLING

Think it has hurt across the board and Malaysia too....... Oil & Gas shit only contributed about 20 pts of the 50+ pts drop of the CI.......

Guess, I will lose if it become a submarine.... but will it??

Vicious cycle.... vicious cycle

Bout time heroes come in to put a stop to this......... else vicious cycle.. vicious cycle


EPF, Khazana, IMDB... well maybe not IMDB..... EPF, Khazana do your stuff

Bought some at 1.04

Vicious cycle.... vicious cycle

Bout time heroes come in to put a stop to this......... else vicious cycle.. vicious cycle


EPF, Khazana, IMDB... well maybe not IMDB..... EPF, Khazana do your stuff

The urgency and desperation in Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas's voice really served to shaken everyone and Malaysia too to their very cores



PETRONAS IS DOING AUSTERITY......


Today drastic drop..................... thanks to Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas for saying DREAM ON!! DREAM ON!!

PETRONAS IS DOING AUSTERITY......


Today drastic drop..................... thanks to Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas for saying DREAM ON!! DREAM ON!!




DREAM ON!! DREAM ON!!, as such, putting Barakah's marginal oil field ambition in freezer........ till oil prices back to 80 pb, long wait?? short wait??




Posted by AhMoi > Nov 28, 2014 11:31 AM | Report Abuse X

Petronas which is set to re-evaluate its RM 300 billion capex programme will have major spillover effects for the oil & gas industry.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600064641.jsp



The way I see it the biggest threat to the local oil & gas companies will be the Malaysian government..... yes, the Malaysian government.


Recall that Petronas had applied to limit its dividend to the Malaysian government at 30% of its profit, but, was rejected.


Double whammy is............ with a lower income in years to come due to low oil & gas prices, yet, the Malaysian government will ask for more because Malaysia's most recent economy growth rate was below 6% and the future is challenging.


Soon, the RM 300 billion capex programme will be reduced to RM 100 billions and brings major negative spillover effects for the local oil & gas industry.


What do you think the future will be for local oil & gas companies when Petronas does austerity....

Those companies which have spent to buy oil & gas assets will be hit even more....


The BursaM's oil & gas counters all came to live all because of this RM 300 billions.... take the air out of the balloon.... what do you get??



What do you think the future will be for local oil & gas companies when Petronas does austerity???


Think and think harder


Take care

PETRONAS IS DOING AUSTERITY......


Today drastic drop..................... thanks to Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas for saying DREAM ON!! DREAM ON!!




Posted by AhMoi > Nov 28, 2014 11:31 AM | Report Abuse X

Petronas which is set to re-evaluate its RM 300 billion capex programme will have major spillover effects for the oil & gas industry.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600064641.jsp



The way I see it the biggest threat to the local oil & gas companies will be the Malaysian government..... yes, the Malaysian government.


Recall that Petronas had applied to limit its dividend to the Malaysian government at 30% of its profit, but, was rejected.


Double whammy is............ with a lower income in years to come due to low oil & gas prices, yet, the Malaysian government will ask for more because Malaysia's most recent economy growth rate was below 6% and the future is challenging.


Soon, the RM 300 billion capex programme will be reduced to RM 100 billions and brings major negative spillover effects for the local oil & gas industry.


What do you think the future will be for local oil & gas companies when Petronas does austerity....

Those companies which have spent to buy oil & gas assets will be hit even more....


The BursaM's oil & gas counters all came to live all because of this RM 300 billions.... take the air out of the balloon.... what do you get??



What do you think the future will be for local oil & gas companies when Petronas does austerity???


Think and think harder


Take care

Heading towards 2.56....





OK officially the war is ON

The brinkmanship game is officially on

The one who blinked first will lose......


LET THE OIL PRICES FALL!!!

By not cutting production, OPEC's or Saudi's intended goal, outcome, objective is for oil prices to fall...... to hit the frackers, the Russian, the IS etc

As it is simply the intended outcome, the planned objective, so, oil prices will fall, period.


To finish off the frackers, the Russian, the IS etc, $ 60 a barrel will be the silver bullet


Remember, Saudi can even increase its production to make sure it will be $60 per barrel.


OPEC/Saudi can't do a U turn on what it has started......................


so by hook or by crook..... $60 per barrel



75 to 60 a further 20% drop....



Now, SKPetro's price has fallen about 30% similar to the fall in oil prices, a very strong correlation


And, so, a further 20% drop from 3.20 will bring SKPetro to 2.56??


Just 2.56, a further 64 sen fall




THE END IS NEAR....


OPEC/Saudi can't do a U turn on what it has started......................


so by hook or by crook..... $60 per barrel



75 to 60 a further 20% drop....



Now, SKPetro's price has fallen about 30% similar to the fall in oil prices, a very strong correlation


And, so, a further 20% drop from 3.20 will bring SKPetro to 2.56??


Just 2.56, a further 64 sen fall

Forced selling... is that a chunk of big forced selling you are staring at now???



>>AhMoi While market may have overreacted a tad...

Forced selling have really exacerbated the drop in Oil&Gas counters

..........

30/11/2014 20:14

One not so good news and one good news



One not so good news.... one of the three Vietnam blocks that SK is buying is actually at EXPLORATION stage, hardly 2C

So, if you have refused to touch Hisbiscus thus far...... now SP has got a little bit of roller coaster ride in it not unlike Hisbiscus...

But just only one ler... so not so good news but ain't that bad too, rite??



One good news..... SK balance sheet is kind of tight, so in near future there will be rights issue to support its shopping spree

Rights Issue not good news enough.... ??

Ol la ok la Rights Issue with free warrants... happy now??

While market may have overreacted a tad...

Forced selling have really exacerbated the drop in Oil&Gas counters

For those aggressive ones when the price drops about 20% there would have been margin calls....

The prices have dropped more than 35%....


HB.... I believe is one of those aggressive ones


But by now there ain't much left for forced selling.... next will be bankruptcy sue