Open Question : What are the ramifications of a sustained $100+ oil price for MFCB for a couple years to come (very likely given the tremendous oil shock that is coming into play regardless of Ukranian war development)?

IMO the resources, oleochemical, and packaging sectors will be affected, and I am not sure they are able to pass down the cost increase in any of the three divisions, what will mean margin compression down the road

hi Papayashot what terminal you refer to, Amanjaya or Kampar? And when was it not happening? Are you talking about pre-covid times, or during covid? Regards.

From the 2020 Annual Report: "Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, the Group still managed
to generate higher income from its project facilitation to its major customer and higher rental income from the leasing of advertising and promotional spaces at Kampar Putra Sentral in September 2020 after receiving the full Certificate of Completion and Compliance."

project facilitation (PFF) TO ITS MAJOR CUSTOMER. Which customer are they talking about? Anyone knows?

Again, I continue investigating on the PFF...

kentck86, can you summarize what was said about PFF (Project Facilitation Fees)? Thx

tclittley your kind of analysis is why it is still valuable to drop by 3i. Thanks a lot. Good QR given the situation, agree with you. And yes. fair value of this company should actually be rounding RM 12.

I suggest you stop talking about MNRB because nobody is interested and you are spamming TAKAFUL forum. Really, you copypaste the comment on a weekly basis.

Tremendous bloodbath. When looking segment by segment:

Construction: while waiting for potential new govt measures that could boost infra spending (seems a longshot at the moment), it does not look good and losses could continue (not clear if last QR was kitchen sinking or not).
Airport: uncertainty from Cambodian govt, and hit by CoVid.
and now... Cranes: hit by oil price war.

My cost is 1.85... as @RainT and @Fabien, I would like to average down, but at the moment I do not dare. Perhaps at 0.75 (100% upside to 1.5 if two segments of the above 3 mentioned turned into positive outlook)

then again, other Energy stocks are in my watchlist and start to have very interesting prices, like PCHEM (4.40) and PETRONM (3.70)

... your thoughts guys?

Would like to buy, but as Sheldon says, in 3 months the QR will be terrible. Should I wait then? Or 4.80 is such a bargain that I should use my bullet now?

Vietnam associate once again disappoints. But FCF continues to be very strong and the cash pile keeps increasing. Chronically undervalued counter... I would say a good 40 sen dividend in next QR would stir up things... but after seeing FPI decent quarter and DY 6.5%+ have insignificant effect in the share price, I dont know what to expect anymore.

Thanks for the explanation.

Hi Fabien,
I heavily bought latest FPI dips too. Value shall emerge and, if it doesn't, the 6%+ DY will take good care of this holding.

Fabien, ignore him, your comments always add value.
Do you know where could I find CIMB report on MUHIBAH, the one with TP 1.50 ? Or would you mind copy-pasting a bit of it here?
Thank you.

kywoo (and observatory and co), your presence, comments and insights is what makes this i3 so worth it.

It is reassuring to know that the management is aware of this issue and that they engage the topic with concerned investors.

In any case, I agree with observatory that it is not the smartest choice on the long term, so I will just hold my shares strong in the meantime and rely on their wise decision-making about cash allocation down the road.

thanks for your input PaulNewman.

any news about the restructuring exercise? Will we see a split of Bank Islam and Takaful in 2020 guys? Betting on that to see Bank Islam value emerge... PBV around 0.8 now despite its good ROE and islamic play.

do you know, roughly, when will PNB and Yayasan Bumiputra finish disposing their stake? It looks to me that the price will not rebound until they completely sell their stake.

kinuxian, thanks a lot for that valuable information! I confess I did not read the QR in detail, just browsed thru it and read their press release :D

kinuxian, I thought CIMB owns 52% of TnG? Whollly Owned, you mean they now own 100% ?
Or they own 100% of the ewallet but the rest of TnG continues being Shared with PLUS and MTD?

Citing TheEdge, October 24:
Under the JVA, CIMB has a 52% stake in Touch ‘N Go, while PLUS and MTD Equity Sdn Bhd hold 28% and 20% respectively.

Rgds.

any idea of why impairment of 3.3 M MYR due to trade receivables loss? sounds yuuuuuge to me.

x3mg33 Amen

2 is true.
1. iI think it is not true.
and the big majority of couples having children do not have that much money to spend, they are in fact relying on government subsidies to survive.

oh yes, Thanks a lot for your answer Fabien. I now understand better the company. The article I shared is a very good and informative article, and the guy had a TP of 13.31 before having 2018 and 2019 FCF datas, which soar beyond 400 mill. Indeed RM 15.xx is a very realistic FV.

Why in this article (just a year ago) the author says 200million FCF, while Fabien gets more like 350-450?

Why does it assume WACC = 7.7%? does WACC equal divident paypout in a company with no debt? And in such case why taking 7.7%, when the dividend yield has been more like 4-5% in past years?

https://seeking-alpha.com/2018/07/28/hong-leong-industries-bhd-rm13-31-thanks-mat-rempit/

I get the following two Fair Value estimates, using Gordon Growth model:

FV = FCFE /(r-g)
FCFE = 350-440
r = 7.7%
g = 1-3%

Conservative -> FV = 350 / (7.7%-1%) = 5224 mio ->RM 15.93 / share
Normal -> FV = 400 / (7.7-1.5%) --> RM 19.67 / share
Optimistic -> FV = 440 / (7.7-2%) = RM 23.54 / share

Fabien please help, I am surely doing something wrong, or else this model is utter bullshit, haha.

sosfinance, Fabien, thanks for your comments, I learn a lot from you.

I have some questions:

1) do you know of any KLSE stock screener that allows you to see FCF/share or P/FCF?

2) let's say a very ugly global recession strikes. Unemployment goes up, interest rates go down, a lot of companies close shop. How do you think that would affect HLIND? I do not know if motorbike sales would experience a huge drop, or if it would just be mild because people that before would have considered a Perodua/Proton would settle for a bike instead.

Thanks for your comments Philip, always a pleasure to read you.

VSLSB, thanks for your comments

Guys, why do you think market is paying PE 15 and a PB ratio 1.2 for ELK-DESA (1.66 RM at the time of writing, 50% increase YTD)
and RCECAP is still stuck at PE 6 and PB ratio of 1 ?

Elk-desa does motor and furniture financing, RCE does civil servant financing. Both have been growing steadily and so on. I do not understand why RCE has not taken off yet.

still confident that this counter will soar in the upcoming quarters, once Kampar starts full contribution.

useless article

your numbers do not make sense... DPS is dividend per share? If so, they are just wrong.

Put a legend man. Dont waste our time.

What is P/L?

kywoo, Fabien, it is a pleasure to read your insights. Kywoo, I agree HLIND is sexier than ORIENT, and that it is severely undervalued.

One thing I do not understand... why if the Vietnam market and potential is so big, and their market share so small, don't they use a portion of their massive cash pile to do smart and exhaustive marketing campaigns in Vietnam?

Another one that scapes me: I just don't comprehend what is the idea of the directors about that billion ringgit sitting in the bank, unless they wanted to keep the price artificially low avoiding Shariah-compliance. I am growing a bit impatient by the day, because I feel a smart business don't let such amount of money setting idle in the bank.

Perhaps I should train myself in the virtue of... patience !

ntygis, RainT is making very pertinent points. It is not unsubstantiated whining, which on the other hand is very prevalent on i3.

RainT, I believe the following points are positive for Matrix. Feel free to comment and rebut, I am no expert.

1. BSS (the following, I infer or I know bc I live and work here).
1.1 BSS is a top-notch township and it will be resilient to construction headwinds.
1.2 BSS is very well located to benefit from MVV (Malaysia Vision Valley). I just hope townships like Enstek or Ainsdale do not steal the show.
1.3 Their Sendayan Techvalley is a great area and it is experiencing great take-up. This will drive housing demand in the area. I do know several employees have relocated or are thinking of relocating there.
1.4 The airforce base seems almost completed, yet they are still to move from their previous location. I am unsure how many people will be moving, but I am expecting some hundreds, and many of them with families. This will boost consumption, which will drive shoplots occupancy, and will bring more people.
1.5 They are being very slow in building some kind of mall. But when they do, i expect BSS to steal a lot of economic activity from Seremban2 (IJM territory).
1.6 Sendayan CBD is an ambitious idea, let's see if they can convince companies to set up shop there. For the moment, several nice amenities around: dTempat, X-park, petrol station etc.
1.7 If they manage to build the hospital, that would be a great catalyst.
1.8 For more longer term, I hope they make good use of hte recently-acquired PD land.

See that I am looking at a medium-long term here. Any short term catalyst.

2. The type of sales they do in Australia, I think it is recession-proof.
3. I do not know a lot about their JV in Indonesia for a Financial area, but it sounded like a very good step.

No other comment for BSI (I do not know a lot) or about Chambers (seems there is a lot of overhang in KL condos, so I just hope they dont get burnt).

useless institution.

This article is of very high quality. Full of bitter truth.

RainT, some stocks go unnoticed to most of investors: HLIND, PTRANS,... but time will put each of them on their place.

I was a believer of Takaful value when it was "dead" at RM 4, and it has recently spiked to almost RM 7, and of MBMR (which I bought some months ago at 1.99, and is now at 2.91) I believe Matrix will eventually appreciate too, as they are doing things right.

Some stocks don't have "moat" until they have it. Are not popular until every one starts sailang them overnight.

Another question: what PE is PetronM worth in your opinion?

PETDAG is trading at PE 28, but 1. it is a blue chip and a local fund darling and 2. is not exposed to the volatile refining segment.

What are other petrol retail companies' PE around the globe?

I do not understand RHB analyst https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/50792.jsp

He rates the company as if it was a refining company. Not a word about the Petron Kedai shops (PetronM owns like half of them, and Petron stations have been in the rise and total 640 across Malaysia).

While refining margins might be soft for the remainder of the year, this revenue stream is growing healthily and should sustain PetronM profits on the quarters to come.

How will BIMB-WA be affected ifthere is a restructuring and Takaful and Bank Islam are listed separately? You will then have two warrants, one for Bank Islam, one for Takaful?

spot on martin. Safe construction buy.

Hi guys, I am interested to know more about PetronM business model. From my point of view, there are 3 main sources of income:
A. Crack spread
B. Profit over the oil-related products it sells at the pump
C. Retail sales of their Petron Kedai

A will see variations in margin, but not in volume unless they expand their refinery in PD. Margin will work, all else being equal in terms of operating costs, as follows: the higher the oil price, the better the margin for PetronM.

B margin will be set by the government and it is not too big.

C margin is good.

B and C volumes are roughly proportional to the number of clients they have. And unless big policy changes that shift people away of their cars, or unless brand recognition / marketing activities suddenly failed, this is roughly proportional to the number of stations PetronM has.

So far, am I right?

Some bonus questions:

1. Do they sell what they refine to other companies, or everything they refine in PD ends up being sold in their Petron stores?

2. What percentage of PBT is contributed by A, B, C above?

3. Where I live (around Sban, NSDK), Petron is expanding aggressively, having opened 6 stores in the last 18 months. I find their strategy here very smart. Right now there are not many people living in this area, but it is growing very fast: Msia Vision Valley, potential HSR being reinstated, many industrial parks, KLIA is close, potential Air Asia hub coming in Labu...

But how much does it take to start boosting profit once you have opened stores? I heard in this forum that breakeven for a station is 7 years. Anyways, about all these stores, I think they will take time to be profitable, but once population doubles around this area, they will have a competitive advantage because they are really picking top spots for their stations.

Thanks a lot if you take the time to answer me.

I do not understand chinese, would you mind commenting briefly the analysis on that PineCapitla analyst from Amanjaya terminal?

Thanks in Advance, Xiexie

Questions: since when has RCE been doing the strategy of buying back a very small number of shares almost every day? I only started following the counter 3 months ago. Is it to inspire confidence and support the price?

What do you think they will end up doing with the shares, since it does not seem total volume will ever be big enough to do a bonus issue: will this just be kept as treasure shares? Or even worse, will this just be given away via ESOS?

Thanks.

Development of the Perak Hi-Tech Industrial Park (PHTIP) in Chemor will start this year and is expected to take five years, the state legislative assembly was told today.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2019/04/18/perak-hi-tech-industrial-park-to-be-revived-this-year-says-exco/1744481

Chemor is 9km away of Amanjaya terminal.

why all the insiders have ben selling repeatedly? Last batch on 26-Mar

And although I think the market already discounted that, the fact that the market is in a very soft state will make the share price either drop or stay slightly above RM1.00

Guys please dont be delusional! Revenue profit both double digits drop , and management say 2H profit will worst than 1H .That is the takeaway.

Here go mine. Imma millennial, and I am an expat. Readers beware...

1) Msia (and Asia in general) has a problem with plastic.

2) Msia will have a huge problem with diabetes... basically people have to choose between taking nasi lemak or milo + cookies for breakfast. I am mocked at when I take out my apple snack during work.

3) My mother refuses to trust anything that is not a traditional bank. Calls anything else, a scam.

4) Love my Touch N Go since the very first day that arrived in Msia (CIMB recently targeted in their Forward23 plan to reach 2.5 billion valuation... In my opinion, can do. But they must vastly improve customer support, I heard it sucks).

5) Being used to the low quality of low cost airlines in Europe, Air Asia is a breeze. Plus I have been using BigPay lately and I like it.

6) I work in Sendayan (Seremban) and commute to KL almost everyday. The highway is world-class.

7) It always amazes me the quantity of housing overhang... despite that, my foreign boss also tells me that he has been hearing rumors of bubble bursting since he landed here 6 years ago.

8) Grab has been abusing his position since Uber left... a serious and solid incumbent is needed, fast.

9) Crazy that this country doesn't have any fast train SG-KL-Penang or SG-KL-BKK...

10) TNB prices are crazy expensive for industrial, and crazy cheap for domestic. Water also cheap for domestic. So much so that Msians don't care about saving. That's living in a subsidized bubble, I don't like it.

haha Philip! What a feud you have with Choivo...

My opinion:
ESOS programme is commonplace among companies worldwide... if executed properly need not to be overly negative for shareholders. With the right clauses in place (e.g sufficient minimum holding period) it will stimulate workforce productivity without causing significant dilution.

Rgds