Great write up. Thks.
I bet for a crash(<50%, may be betw 20-30%) in 12 months. It is just a guessing with some experience behind.
Yes, i agree with your solutions. In this context, I have had rebalanced portfolio to more defensive, dividend and plantation stocks. At the same time, I am keeping much more cash than last year.

Side note: Ha! Ha! "Suay" one, one of the plantation stocks(although it is not a pure plantation play) which I switched into is KFima. Unfortunately, it gave an lousy earning two days ago. I am disappointed but still ok to sink down with it albeit unwillingly.

What is the logic behind for price to go higher than RM2.20 seeing the fact that earning and eps are at its lowest in these 4 years ?

2013 PAT=59,353; eps=21.8; close=2.28(26May14)
2012 PAT=77,311; eps=28.9; close=2.20(30May13)
2011 PAT=80,864; eps=30.7; close=1.79(17May12)
2010 PAT=71,027; eps=26.99; close=1.60(26May11)

冻过水. 阿斗.

Added

Hi : does anybody knows who is “Cham Poh Meng (Zhan Baoming)”, the substantial shareholder of Huayang ? Thks.

Spain is great too but the average age of players is old.

I love the beautiful football played by Brazil but I would buy German winning the championship.

Hi inwest88: nice to have chance to chat with u again. Thanks for your greeting. I would like to greet you all the best too.

My changes in the last few months=zero sum game=王傑一場遊戲一場空。
Return of my portfolio peaked when Zhulian hit RM5 few months ago, then the great paper profit was stolen back by Zhulian too. 成也蕭河/速遠，敗也蕭河/速遠。 After down for many months, GTronic pushes the return back to peak again. This time, I realized some of the profit first as I hate to be 王傑again.

If I am lucky enough, a new peak before arrival of Mr. Bear will be made by plantation.

Good luck.

我很喜欢这句『时世造英雄』。只要有跟進股市发展与有钱，一有幸碰上大熊巿，隨便买入几支蓝籌、收她们几年，你就会是大英雄，超成功的大投资家。

110% agree with "kheng" to invest only during big crash once in many yrs and keep for another few yrs to become a superb investor. However I opine that 95% of investors are irresistible to excitement of the market and addicted to "IN" the market at all times. Consequently, 95% of investors cannot beat the market, let alone to be superb investor. Sadly, I am one of the 95%.

Even though I made up just one of the many data points among the 95%, my gut feeling told me that the published statistic is true.

In the current hot bull market, many inexperience investors would disagree with the statistic as money is not difficult to be earned from Mr. Bull. However over the long term, most of the quick profit will be returned and very likely plus a big cut on own capital as an heavy interest and learning fee. "

Same vote to unit trust but on bright side. I am a very naïve and passive investor with progressive withdrawal from EPF into Public Mutual and Prudential (east spring) for the last 10 years. I have never sold a single cent and my current paper return is 101% return. Does this 101% return outperforms KLCI ?

On another point – “choices”, I agree that one of the very effective ways to make an outstanding return is by following great Sifu likes Len Yan(Fong SiLing). However he seldom teaches or let you know his movements in Bursa.

Where to find another super investor SIFU?

SOS talked fact, at least it reflects the fact of my investment records in both unit trust and Bursa. Thks.

2.89 not 1.89. I am licking my wound each day for the last two years. It is about time to recover liao.

In fact I have significant number of JTiasa, average at RM2.89. Bought very early when Mr Koon first recommended in 2012.

You like JTiasa? I am accumulating TSH.

lching : hmmm, great to see you here too. In fact my first batch of GTronic was disposed to exchange in MPI.

Both CIMB and Alliance forecasted PE of FY14 at ~14, to me it is stll pretty low, thus I will keep it for much longer. Best luck

Hi lching : anyway RM4.00 is not too far. I still have a bit of bullets to join you. See you at RM4.

朋友：对我來说，3.87与4.00的分别不大。我就先套利了。祝好运。

Yes，3.87成功啦! 另一批3.89在排着隊。我是ikan bilis, 放少少而已啦，不会影响升势。

when WB quoted so, he has done thorough fundamental analysis and risk assessment and found that the targeted company is very safe.
Seeing the current uncertain situation in Vietnam, I have an opinion that this company does not fix the underlying criteria of the quote.

Hi : Last night, JTiasa announced monthly production figures as below:
(1). Logs - 102,720 cubic metres.
(2). Fresh Fruit Bunches - 53,321 metric tonnes.
(3). Crude Palm Oil - 5,147 metric tonnes.
(4). Palm Kernel - 807 metric tonnes.

Can anybody kindly teach me how to translate the raw data into profit(RM)?

Mr. Koon : May we know your fair value for JTiasa ? Thank you very much.

I am impatient to wait for your recommendation on the best plantation companies to buy ? Is TSH one of the candidates?

Yes, yum sheng sama sama. Yum red wine or CPO ?

MKH : let's start the new chapter. But please do not "play play".

Aero1 : thks for the kind explaination

Wah! Relief, after putting so much of money into it and wait for so long.

Ai Yoh ! pls do not play me lah. I am just a very ordinary small retailer with greed and fear. I have unsuccessfully attempted selling you several times for the last few days seeing you have been fully valued. You did not want to accept my sell order instead “contradictly” going up each day. Even though, I know it is a great thing putting in more paper money into my pocket, but this against my valuation. Now my fingers are too heavy to key in sell order again seeing you going up each day. Sigh, am I fated to earn(lose) more ?

Hi Aero : Can you pls teach me how to calculate value of plantation biz of MKH at 1.2 bil?

TonyLim : you are right, I had plenty of opportunity to sell at 4.80 then. But I did not. Why ? As I thought recently there are many people shout loud on CPO and rushing into JT, TSH etc. MKH is a CPO producer too, so why not waiting for a little longer to join the optimistic crowd on CPO. On the other hand, Indo Rupiah is strengthening, which allows MKH to earn back the previous unrealized currency lost.

Simply put it : bonus ex + optimistic on CPO + currency gain + Q1 result = HOLD(another expression of Greed lah). He! He!

U r lucky selling some at 4.8. At 4.80, I was greedy aiming for 5.40. In fact I am now still greedy but would sell 1/3 first as you if I were given opportunity.

Reasonable PE:
Properties biz:10x
Plantation biz:16x
Average:13x
Eps:40sens
Fair value: 13x40=5.20
Do u agree?

Good strategy and good luck. I have had enough so I will not have any action. Just sit still to wait for Durian Jatuh with helmet on.

Just got time to look at mkt. Keyed in sell order at 3.90. Do u want to buy from
me?
Do not worry as I am a very small fish, my sell order will not have impact to the uptrend. I just want to share that I want to reduce my holding on counter with PE 20x.
Good luck and pls up again to above 4.00

lcng123: thks.

lcng123 : thks a lot for the above method to calculate profit from the FFB. How about kernel shell oil ? I read from somewhere that each tonne of FFB can provide significant amount of profit in the form of kernel oil. Do you know how to extract that figure ?
Thks

I totally agree that GTronic is a great stock. But PE 20X, umm! I am in dilemma.

Hi lching : You are very kind for informing me to sell higher. Unfortunately only now I have time to log on i3.

Today I was to busy and have no time to key in sell order, I do not know if I am lucky or unlucky.

As I sold out some few days earlier, I have earned less 1 smart phone Note 3 + few big meals. As a condolence price, I gained back one China's smart phone from MPI.

Maybe I should keep all of the balance to earn extra few Iphone 6.

Good luck to all holders of beloved GTronic.

Today I was a bit greedy, keyed in at 3.72 since morning. It was almost matched. But luck is still lacking. Not done at last. May be instead it was a good luck for me to sell even higher tomorrow. I need money for the first speculation in the 3 years.

ya lol, no people buy from me. It is OK, I will sell again tomorrow.
I want to sell some as I have many on hand furthermore I need money. It does not mean GTronic is not good.

I have keyed in sell order at 3.70 of my another 15% of my holding. Pls buy from me.

I am seduced to sell more GTronic. May key in sell order few minutes later.

Hi lching : I bought MPI for its biz in parts for smart phones and tablets which is very similar to GTronic. MPI is traded at much lower PE than Gtronic. I does not have Unisem.

My paper profit on MKH has been eroded from great to good only. I do not want the same happen on GTronic.
Thks.

Hi lching : "valuation is a little rich"
It is great to know that we have the same view.
I switched some fund from GTronic to MPI. Do you have any view on MPI ?

Sold another 25% of my holding. Sigh! my GTronic were unluckily sold at the lowest price of the day at 3.62.
GTronic is still good, I will hold the balance. Let's see it fly.

Hi Mr. Koon: I read your comments on JTiasa & TH Plantation, but not TSH. I would much appreciate if you could write some comments on TSH. Thank you.

Globetronics to develop and manufacture next-generation sensors

Globetronics Technology Bhd is investing between RM55m and RM60m to develop and manufacture next-generation sensors for wearable smart devices and smart mobile electronic products. CEO Heng Huck Lee told that the group has secured orders for its sensors from European Union and US customers for the second half of 2014. "We are in the production start-up stage and the sensors will be delivered starting from July. We expect these new-generation sensors to help the group achieve another record-breaking year for its revenue and bottom line. The sensors will be delivered starting from July," Heng said."The group is now in the product development stage of designing sensors for bio and health wearable smart devices for its US customers," he added. (StarBiz)

Source: CIMB Daybreak - 05 May 2014
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/valueinvestorresearchklse/51436.jsp

Sold 15% of my holding today as money is needed to follow big fish. Today I made my first speculating buy in this round of bull. Good luck to myself.

On 22 Apr to 1 May, CIMB took Mah Sing’s management on a non-deal
roadshow (NDR) to meet 19 investment firms in Europe and 18 in the US. CIMB sensed a great change in the European investors’ level of interest and knowledge compared to our trip in Jul 2013. BUY with TP RM3.03. http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/22675.jsp

The Board of Directors of Tropicana wishes to announce the resignation of Mr Chong Choon Yeng as Executive Director, Finance of the Company which took effect from 2 May 2014.

“ONLY ROLLING MONEY CAN BRING IN MORE MONEY”.

My return of investment in Bursa is so far very low as most of my capital is locked in blue chips such as Genting, GenM, CIMB, MBB which are the clear laggards in the recent hot market. I naively and strongly believe that I need to stick firmly to my principle, investing mainly in big companies with great name.

Lately, one of my old investment friends called up and she was very amazed that I were so faithful to my rigid investment principle. She advised me that “ONLY ROLLING MONEY CAN BRING IN MORE MONEY”. She substantiated this quote with her more than million profits from this round of bull alone. She does not have any fundamental or technical skills at all but just sitting in Kopitiam each day following the transaction of big fishes. I did talk about her story last year.

Comparing my lousy with her sparkling return, I were partially convinced. I have subsequently sold some MBB, Genting and GTronic, getting fund ready to jump into the wagon of hot counters.

Ha ! Ha ! if an old uncle who is the diehard lover of big companies for the last 7 days, cannot hold up and plan to jump boat to hot counters, I think the days of the bull is clearly counting down.
God! Please save me. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz2lm-bUTbw