Had bought some first.

Create opportunity for you to buy.

技术分析 is not my cup of tea as I always worry the less determined mind can be easily swayed by technical tools to speculate.

基本面 : Ah Ha, this is good. Please follow posts by kcchongnz. If you can master his teaching, next year you will be my sifu.

Good luck.

After Read :

1) 积少成多，一步一步来, 更能为自己的未来奠下基础，迈向成功:
Can you imagine buying Nestle at RM10.20? It is now at RM68.

Investbullbear bought Nestle a long time ago at $10.20 per share. I believe he is one of积少成多，一步一步来. http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/44759.jsp

2) 远离恶习, 一旦染上恶习，就很难翻身 : do not speculate, do not simply trade. Do not believe that certain counter is to fly next week, bla, bla…..

3) 朋友对一个人的影响非常大，因为近朱者赤，近墨者黑 : do not visit thread which asks you to buy or promote a counter without base.

Always follow threads or posts which teach you how to value shares or asking you to be careful with market.

Good luck.

牛后期

近来感觉阿猪阿狗都可涨价。不知这是否牛尾巴了?
请別骂我、以上纯粹是个人感觉。共勉之。

“台灣股神” 胡立陽：今年股市將淪陷 1/11/2014 KLCI=1827
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/88417

i)“經濟利好已提前反映”，投資者不能再從基本面思考，而是應以資金面出發。
ii) 馬股1800點以上算高檔
iii) 在首季仍可能盼到創新高的牛勁
iv) “今年特色-崎嶇，上半年容易作，下半年如走鋼索， 不要隨便追高，等拉回才進場；
v) 不要一味想著撿便宜，即便股票拉回，也要買強勢股！
vi) 投資秘訣永遠是，買在低檔，小心高檔……
vii) 10年大餐，現已是最後的“甜湯”，若還期待牛排，可能會很失望，而且可能要加倍奉還，
viii) 2014年的主題是“保本”，緊抱現金，等待機會。


台灣股神胡立陽：金錢遊戲結束了‧你將受苦10年 25-08-2013 KLCI=1727 http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/80908

Thanks for your good word, if Mahsing limits up in next week, I will buy you Star Buck coffee for celebration, OK ?

老兄：30 from 17.8,=68%, 哗您的喂口蛮大的。承你贵言，我就陪伴您一起等30吧，OK?

聯昌: 雲頂大馬區域博彩股首選, 买进, TP　ＲＭ５．７０

1/9/2014 17:17

（吉隆坡9日訊）雲頂大馬（GENM，4715，主板貿服組）國內、英國與美國業務2015年開始看俏，尤其國內雲頂綜合旅遊計劃（GITP）成功落實，料提供更大空間擴大全球足跡，聯昌研究推荐雲頂大馬為區域博彩業“首選股”。

聯昌對雲頂大馬2015財政年財測樂觀，因斥資50億令吉的雲頂綜合旅遊計劃開跑，第一世界酒店1千300客房酒店擴建完成與20世紀霍士主題樂園開幕。
聯昌相信，基於雲頂綜合旅遊計劃是經濟轉型計劃（ETP）下的旅遊項目之一，料面對的繁文縟節不多，及可享有稅務獎掖。

該公司2014年將專注豪客與優質群眾玩家，料營運賺益將由去年34%，改善至今年的37%。
英國博彩去年因豪客賠率失利，今年營運料有驚喜。英國營運正進行大型裝修活動，英國伯明翰名勝世界1億5千萬英鎊（7億5千萬令吉）博彩業2015年初開張，雖然賭桌不多，但基於坐落伯明翰國際會議中心，主辦過多次歐洲大活動，很有潛能。

聯昌料美國名勝世界也在營運3年後釋放發展潛能，迄今已砸下10億美元（約33億令吉）投資，其中7億美元放在紐約名勝世界，後者去年全年營運盈利料達1億美元。

儘管截至去年第三季回酬增長16%至每賭博機4億4千萬美元，管理層認為仍有上揚空間；另外，紐約新地鐵線亦支援訪客到紐約名勝世界，在營運不到3年內訪客已突破100萬人次。
聯昌指出，美國是雲頂大馬重要市場，不排除雲頂大馬在雲頂拉斯維加斯計劃扮演積極角色，把紐約、邁阿密與拉斯維加斯綜合度假村串連上市，釋放價值。

雲頂大馬擁有戶外的20世紀霍士主題樂園，可嘗試以此作為美國其餘綜合度假村之戶外主題公園。
豐隆研究說，雲頂大馬邁阿密名勝世界獲當局批准開放2千個老虎機，這與紐約名勝世界營運，惟所獲報導說收益將歸非營利機構如佛州養馬業者與練馬師等。

豐隆相信這只是一個起步，雲頂大馬將繼續努力奔走，以期最終獲當局批准全面賭場執照。
（星洲日報／財經‧報道：張啟華）

Kenanga's TP RM18.75 with DPS 81cents while RHB's TP RM20 with DPS 79cents. I am excited with the 81 cents. RM20? Emm ! not really interested as I do not have plan to sell LPI. Thks.

Psychology.

I can consider myself one of the experience investors in Bursa yet I cannot get thru psychology barrier on DLady at RM47. If it splits 1 to 10 making it RM4.70(same value), I would have bought it already. I believe there are many people having same mindset as mine.

Aiyah! 52 cents only. No durian jatuh. Anyway, thank you very much to Tan Sri Teh HP and the mgt team for the consistent great performance.

Neohts: good year for DKSH. Wishing it to continue throughout the whole year and the next.

1 bil in usd.

Hi KC Loh: I do not know the actual reason behind. But what I know is that currently gloves mfger is short of order with squeezed margin. So what if Rubbetex now does not see the biz prospect matching the acquisition price, thus call off the proposal? I am GUESSING only. So what can we learn from here and map it on our beloved Harta?

KC Loh: thks.
Do u realize that Rubberex called off the acquisition proposal on Alliance Rubber ?

lcng123: 你有22%。我没胆，只有2%。羨慕你也祝贺你。今年你是阿Huat！恭喜发财！

Hi KC Loh: what did you mean "one-half " automated kilang?

Aero1:我先知沒胆赚小钱。有得赚已知足，感恩。

大师说：“如果你心里有屎，看什么都是屎”。

When two fingers point out, three point back.

逍遥子 : at least I were interested and bought the first batch in early Nov13 and the second batch at the end of the same month. Thks for your many informative and helpful posts on MKH.

I will not fight with you. Let you complete your shopping first. I am not in hurry. Good luck

Houseofordos: I started to q in the last few days as I smelled the uptrend too. Ha! Ha!

I am in queue buying more KFima, unfortunately there was nobody willing to sell it to me. I will patiently wait for it. I just need few cents lower than the current close. Just want to save few hundred for dinner lah.

THOUSAND CONGRATULATION to ALL royal gatekeepers.

lcng123 and Aero1 : CONGRATULATION!. You deserve the reward as you are the gatekeepers of this counter. Thank you.

Can an ugly duckling become a beautiful white swan in two weeks? If you are so optimistic on MKH, where were you when MKH was still hovering around 2.60 ? Do you think HwangDBS has a magic wand turning MKH into beautiful swan by simply publishing a report? Do you believe that CPO is now going to the sky by just two weeks? Plantation value? Why didn’t you know its value 2 weeks ago? Does the value just appreciate in these 2 weeks?

2 months ago, many were pessimistic on property market due to the announced negative measures in Budget 2014, do you think that the negative measures have been now lifted? How about the loss on currency exchange? Indo Rupiah is still depreciating.

My advice is that please think twice before jumping in with your hard earned money. Take a step backward from this thread or forum; think independently, why not 2 weeks ago but now? GOOD LUCK.

p/s: I certainly enjoy the increase on the share price. In fact I regret that I were too slow and conservative in accumulating the stock.

Back to work on 6 Jan 14. Continue the learning process on 11 Jan.

Hi nokenzo : pls scroll up to 23 Dec 2013.
KC Chong : "Those numbers were obtained from the latest balance sheet on 30/9/2013, not the fy 2012 one."

Good luck.

KC Chong: Pls allow me to re-post the below under the relevant thread of KFima. TQ.

So what is wrong with the pick on Kumpulan Fima which lost 2.4% since a year ago? - kcchongnz, Publish date: Thu, 2 Jan 14:00

-------------------------------------------------------------------

kcchongnz has left a new comment on your portfolio "Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H - kcchongnz":

So what is wrong with the pick on Kumpulan Fima which lost 2.4% since a year ago? Well there were two or three people in i3 who constantly picked on me for choosing this stock. However they were not able to articulate on why my Kfima pick was such a bad move, except talking nonsense, all of them.

Looking back on the selection process again, I do not see what is wrong. It was selected based on its diversified durable business in security paper printing, palm oil, bulking, food etc. It had high ROIC of 25%, a healthy balance sheet with 255m net cash, or about RM1 per share, excellent quality of earnings with consistent and abundant cash flows from operations and free cash flow. Free cash flow is more than 20% of revenue and invested capital. And most of all, at RM2.06 at that time, the earnings yield (EV/Ebit) was 27%, a great number.

Sure its earnings has dropped by about 10% the last financial year, though its revenue still went up a little. Again which company with plantation as a major earnings didn’t have their earnings reduced last year when palm oil price is depressed? Many even made losses.

Based on Kfima’s last annual financial results, ROIC has dropped to 19%, but this is still a high return of capital. And at RM1.93 now, its earning yields (EV/Ebit) of 26% is still hell of a good bargain. This is a classic case of the Magic Formula Investing Strategy of Joel Greenblatt.

Buying something for less than its value is the most dependable way to make money. Buying discount from IV and having asset price move towards its value doesn’t require serendipity; it just requires that market participants wake up to reality.

Trying to buy below value isn’t infallible, but it’s the best chance we have.

The fact that despite its great fundamentals haven’t changed but its price has gone down a little while the overall market has gone up by 14%, it is even more compelling to keep Kumpulan Fima as a major stock in my portfolio in 2014.


Posted by kcchongnz at Jan 2, 2014 01:04 PM

吾系呱！RM5.40? 吓死人眛？

HwangDBS: MKH Bhd; Buy@RM2.62, Price target@RM5.40; Diamond in the rough

Fastest-growing yet cheapest plantation proxy. Largest beneficiary of value-enhancing MRT stations in Kajang. Multi-year re-rating on the horizon, with deep value proposition at 5x FY15F PE. Initiate coverage with BUY rating and RM5.40 SOP-derived TP, implying 101% upside

Hi KC Chong: very good lesson-“better to buy a better company with reasonable higher price than a not-so-good one at cheaper price..”.

My heart is still hanging in the air. I still cannot turn that lesson into a solid perception to guild my future behavior. I need to experience more. Anyway, thanks for the sharing.

The distributed dividend needs to pay 25% tax to government. If RM100 is deducted from NAV as dividend, the net re-invested value is RM75 only, another RM25 will be given to goverment free. In other word, you lose RM25 as compared to the same fund without distribution.

Mr Koon : Judging with my understanding on basic human behavioral science, I have full faith on your personal integrity. Even though I am still bleeding on JT, I deem it as my own responsibility and you have my fullest respect. Wishing you a good health. Happy new year.

嚴重被低估....??

If put debt and current level of FCF aside, just base on PE, I opine it is undervalue now, the surprise interim div at 10sens weeks ago was another plus point of MKH.

Q1: the company aims to expand plantation land significantly in Indo, which requires big initiate capex; the new investment requires subsequent cash outflow for at least 5 yrs before providing net cash for the co; meaning the a ability of high DPO is in doubt.

Q2: will it increase debt?

I have no answer for the Qs. Thus I do nothing, just sit and wait.

Huayang is the counter I admire for so long. I dare not to buy in more because after understanding(a bit only) FCF, I doubt if the company able to continue the generous dividend pay out. Thus I hesitate now, so I just wait and see.

Did u factor on the bonus issue few months ago?

Hi nokenzo: on vacation. Will need many days to have chance to turn on PC for the numbers.

Pls go to thread "Shall we avoid risks? - kcchongnz". It is a very good thread. No time? At least, save it for future. Would not regret.

Hi Nokenzo: pls do not miss thread "Shall we avoid risks? - kcchongnz". It has good discussion on CFO. I saved the thread but have not gone into it yet as on vacation.

At relative low time: take risk for future gain(捞底).

At relative high time: take risk to maximize gain.

If I have read your comment right, it is talking about the later. I have some thought here.

If KLCI is now at 861 or 1061, it is more appropriate to talk about one should not "kia shi", instead should understand risk and then take risk to have positive return in long term.

Even though it is undeniable that at the current historical high(1861) there may be still some hidden value, but the risk of falling into a trap would be higher than getting a value. Taking Risk is an art on probability. At 1861, what is the probability to reach 2230 as compare to probability to down to 1480?

As an ordinary retail investor, I highly advocate "Simple". As I do not have high skill, I would better behave as what I am, eat only fat fishes with less bone. If there is no more fat fishes, just stop eating. Do not take risk to challenge small fish with tiny bone. In this case, you eat fat fishes too, but while I stop eating, you take risk to further enjoying small fish. But don't you think the risk of being chock is higher ? As an ordinary investor, shouldn't we content with moderate return and stop there to protect the earning or loss avoidance? Am I right to say that 90% or even 99% of retail investors do not have the required skill to challenge and earn from high?

KCChong: thanks for your good words.
送给你与家人温馨的祝福-“聖誕快乐”+”新年快乐”+“身体万康”。

说得非常好。可行性也超高。以上也是我赚钱的策略。

那些弄我输钱的九成都是听回来的。经过几次大失血後，己学乖很久没再听人说了。

高买是另一个亏钱原因。就比如现在买进。少赚或慢赚好过亏。我们小散戶是不夠大戶拼的。接受现实吧。

投资股市，其实越怕死越好。与WB的铭言大致一样。

Hi Mr neohts : can you please share your view on debt level and cash flow of DKSH ? Thks

阿winds肯定是或將会肯定是millionaire next door. Nice to meet you.

Hi nokenzo : CONGRATULATION!

I am just few months ahead you in chatting and learning from KC Chong and many others in I3. One of the surest things is that I am few notches behind him. So please do not making me uneasy by putting my name side by side with his except if you are talking about our good intention on this forum.

Another one which you can try on DCFA is Prestariang by KC too. Prestariang is a good counter. I want to buy it at a lower price as so how, I have unconsciously over invested lately. I am now queuing to let go some counters.

送给你与家人温馨的祝福-“聖誕快乐”+”新年快乐”

Fatinvest:
当我做不成成龙，我就说成龙是在耍㺅子戏、

当我沒金城武靓仔，那是金城武整容、

当我打不过林丹，那一定是中国在玩不公平手段、派出太外高手、

56年後，我还是没有競爭力，那不是我笨，而是你们搶走我的机会，雖然批不批你做生意的执照的权力全集中在我手上。

因为我没本事与你一样在股市赚钱，那也不是我笨，而是你骗人、

这就是我们马氏的本色，你吹昧！

fatinvest : 有时候让没有逻辑与不講道理赢，未尝不是件好事。至少可以把精力时间用在更有用之处。你同意吗?

fatinvest : 不错呀！在I3塗塗写写的我竟然可以被看成炒家。如果说我有炒家的财务能力，我真的不介意成为炒家。那种日子一定会超爽，因为股票本来就是我最大的兴趣嘛！

送给你与家人温馨的祝福-“聖誕快乐”+”新年快乐”

哈!哈!. 谢谢.