Ahmad Cendana

cendana287 | Joined since 2012-03-14

Investing Experience Intermediate
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Stock

2016-11-09 11:51 | Report Abuse

Actually that's the smart thing to do. A counter like this requires lots of patience if you choose to speculate. The ability to wait. Many people don't have this trait. Being able to sit on one's hands and do nothing. They want action, do things.

If we observe share price movements, we will see patterns. Those who make real money consistently are those who can wait. Inevitably, the tide changes. Losers turn to winners. Sometines, big winners. Provided one doesn't buy at the historical highest price (like buying THHEAVY at 1.10; SKPETRO at 4.50; SCOMI at 0.42 etc.).

And one way to remain patient is to not follow counters obsessively. Checking the price several times a day. Plus not to be swayed by others' opinions and sticking to one's strategy. That means not coming to read and comment every day. "Waiting" - the ability to do so is a valuable asset.

Stock

2016-11-08 13:05 | Report Abuse

It's actually Payallz, not Allpayz :-)
Anyway, the fixed asset being its office at Sunsuria Avenue: "Four storey corner shop office lot". It's 990 sq. metres or 10,656 sq. feet and valued at RM5.1 million. This looks to be one of its most valuable assets. Sunsuria Avenue where Tune Hotel is also located is a rather quiet area. Unlike "the other side" with Dataran Sunway, Strand, Nexis etc. Not a bad thing actually.

This Trade Receivables of RM7.1 million which is listed as asset - it's only as such if the amount could be collected. How good is the probability? If there is impairment and write-off, there will be rather significant impact on the accounts.

Since the par reduction, rights and warrants exercise was carried out just several months ago, there likely won't be anything similar in the near future. One of the plus points is that NETX has precious cash, with debts being more than manageable. That means the management won't be tied up fighting and putting out fires. It all depends on creating new businesses. Everything now depends on how capable they are.

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2016-11-08 00:32 | Report Abuse

I've been reading the Annual Report from the link provided by @Ring. The registered office at Sunsuria Avenue, Kota Damansara is very near where I live. Now there is some emotional attachment to this company :-)

The problem as mentioned by a few here is that it doesn't have any solid business at the moment. Yes, there's the electronic payment Allpayz or whatever the name is. This field is rather crowded though. NETX has its work cut out to gain a foothold and meaningful income in this.

That RM26 million in cash is intriguing. Very handy for working capital and development. RM3 is allocated for debt payment. Still a significant amount left. It doesn't look hard up for cash if the accounts are really as stated. Now it depends on the management executing the plans.

At 0.025 and with the cash in hand, I think I'm going to join @fl888 and become a cheering spectator of NETX. "Buy and hope". And wait. Sometimes a simplistic strategy like this would work very well.

Stock

2016-11-07 18:42 | Report Abuse

Bank balance RM27 million, as in "cash"? What about debts?
This counter is intriguing, especially with the big volume today. Don't know what's going on behind the scenes. But might be worth speculating a bit of capital on. Worst case situation - becones like Hubline at 0.01.

However, if there are corporate exercises in store, the dice might get rolled in the speculator's favour. By just hanging on and wait. I had done this with Amedia last year. Bought at 0.025 and just did nothing after that. Didn't subscribe to the rights issue. Price adjusted to 0.13, with less units of course. Went down to 0.10. Did nothing. And then it started to go up. Now 0.25. I sold off too early at 0.23.

NETX going to 0.04? Definitely not impossible. 0.01 is also not impossible. I'm going to buy some lots as pure speculation. Then do nothing for the coming months. Better this than structured warrants. No expiry date.

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2016-11-07 18:22 | Report Abuse

The main risk in bottom-fishing is that low can become lower. It had felt 'cheap' below 1.00. Then 0.90. But it still went lower.

I think better to wait and see for now. At least until we are reasonably sure it has found a bottom. It's okay not to be able to buy at the lowest price. It's something we cannot be sure of until after the facts. The next best thing - buy only when it's recovering. More expensive price is fine, as long as it's on an uptrend.

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2016-10-27 10:25 | Report Abuse

And that retrenchment news last month - I think investors had overreacted. "Business turning bad"...? Maybe. Will have to see the quarter results. But it also showed the management is proactive, agile and decisive. I'd want this kind of people to navigate a company. Not those who sit around and hope for the best.

Stock

2016-10-27 10:20 | Report Abuse

Jonathan Keung - that is a very important aspect to take into account when choosing a growth company to invest in. When the top management have heavy stock ownership too, that inspires confidence. They dare to risk their own money. I would be hesitant with counters where the board of directors etc has only token number of shares.

News & Blogs

2016-10-24 12:23 | Report Abuse

Hevea is one of my regrets this year. Was alerted to it and got attracted after reading your analysis at this blog a few months ago. Almost immediately after that blog post, it went up to almost 1.30. There goes my safety margin! But the rise didn't hold. In fact it went down lower than the previous price. And that was my mistake - the failure to take advantage of the market giving a safety margin. All I had to do was to buy at below 1.20 and wait. Ignoring the daily spikes which are inevitable.

Will have to wait for another good opportunity involving another counter. It will come, for sure.

News & Blogs

2016-10-24 12:04 | Report Abuse

Another very useful post by KC Chong here with sound principles. For the "value investor". Even for speculators and momentum players (and we are often a mix of everything), there are useful lessons. It always won't hurt when we assess the downside risk and look for a safety margin.

Again and again the market will present us with opportunities. Due to some unexpected piece of news or quarter, counters suddenly see a slump in their share price. While it is prudent to not catch a falling knife (unless if one is a semi-gambler hoping for an immediate rebound), bottoms will be established sooner or later. Quite often, we can reasonably conclude a new base is being formed, and that further downside risk is minimal (unless if another round of bad news appeared). That would be the time to buy. And wait. Most of my profitable buys had come from this - by just waiting and not doing anything "to tweak". Often, in less than a year, the counters are moving up again. The ones with good fundamentals. Patience is required though. And not following the crowd.

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2016-10-21 15:09 | Report Abuse

As long as the support of 0.97 holds, I'm holding on to Tekseng. I believe the bottom had been found (0.95). But one can't expect it, or any counter, to retrace its steps in a straight line. It is building a base at this level - those who give up are being replaced by fresh capital. These are investors who buy at a lower cost.

Look back at all those recent events - after a sharp fall, a counter consolidates. It takes some time for things to sort out. But it eventually will. Remember Gtronic, Evergreen etc.? As long as a support level holds, I'm digging in and wait.

Stock

2016-10-12 14:18 | Report Abuse

People had over-reacted to that news about retrenchment at the production line. And not seeing it as Tekseng's management being very proactive and agile in handling changes in the business environment.

The past few quarters had produced good results. Especially in increasing turnover and profit. At least and see what the latest quarter results are. Only then will we be able to make a better assessment.

I'm still in the red with Tekseng, having bought at a slightly higher price. Going to see how it ends today and make the decision to average UP.

Stock

2016-09-28 11:50 | Report Abuse

The proposed retrenchment - if it's done to tighten the company's operations and protect its profits, that's a good thing. If we think about it, that shows the management is proactive and decisive. There might be less demand for the solar products and the company is simply adjusting to navigate through this situation.

We will have to see this quarter's results first to better assess Tek Seng's future potentials. As it is, the fact remains that its past few quarters have been very good, with an increase in revenue and profit. Let's see how the share price closes today. One encouraging development - it has rebounded from the 1.03 earlier today. That could indicate the weak holders have gotten shaken out. Watch the price action. There could be a chance to make a few ringgit.

News & Blogs

2016-09-27 10:59 | Report Abuse

This was written during the night and before the market opened. Good job by @Spencer88 who was alert to this.

Stock

2016-09-27 00:46 | Report Abuse

Sudden drop towards the end of the trading day. Wonder who is selling and what is the reason. This isn't a counter which contra players care for. The price looks attractive, and this is a crony company. But it's risky to buy things that suddenly fall. Hopefully there will be some news of it today.

Stock

2016-09-27 00:37 | Report Abuse

It doesn't matter much to me - a TRADER and speculator - about oil prices, debts etc. It's the price action that matters the most.

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2016-09-26 10:19 | Report Abuse

At least a couple of things have been shown. 1.62 is strong resistance while 1.50 appears to be rather solid support. Let it form a new base first. The next surge upwards will likely see it go past that resistance, and stay there.

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2016-09-21 16:19 | Report Abuse

It's now clearly on an uptrend after the correction and consolidation. It won't be a straight move upwards. There will be drops, which are actually a good thing for the longer term. These help it to consolidate and strengthen at the different price levels. The new support will be the time to buy or add. With this kind of counter, have to be a bit patient and not get panicky whenever it suffers a drop.

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2016-09-20 11:01 | Report Abuse

@mysmo1 Same as me, and there are likely some others. I'm hesitant in trying to catch the bottom because something on a clear downtrend tends to go lower...although it isn't a straight line downwards.

At the same time, I also recognise the potential of a sudden surge when something is oversold. The debt matter with bondholders will be the impetus. Either way. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Stock

2016-09-09 16:45 | Report Abuse

Odd. On dividend ex day, the price is up. It's like people don't want the dividend.

Stock

2016-09-09 16:42 | Report Abuse

This looks like contra players from a few days ago cutting loss. Especially those who came in late. Let's see the closing price. If it's off the lowest point, then that's not too bad.

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2016-09-09 12:54 | Report Abuse

Immediate support is at 3.18. Would be a good level to come in to add or for those who had missed the bus. With a stop-loss set in place, of course. I see this as normal consolidation and is good due to the sudden spike two days ago. Let Gtronic form a new base first. Only then will the recovery be sustained.

Stock

2016-09-08 12:48 | Report Abuse

Right now is a combination of some taking profit plus weak holders from yesterday getting out. This is normal after the big day yesterday. Going to check what the nearest support is and add again at that level. Then wait for this quarter's results to come out in two months. At the very least, it should be better than the previous two. This being a dividend counter makes it attractive. It's just a matter of "what price?"

Stock

2016-09-07 15:11 | Report Abuse

I'm going to play safe by taking some money off the table. The potential profits may be less if Gtronic continues to go up. But I'm going to hedge for any outcome from tomorrow onwards. Can always add again soon, depending on the situation.

Stock

2016-09-07 11:05 | Report Abuse

9 sen, if I'm not wrong.

Stock

2016-09-06 17:58 | Report Abuse

Closed above 3.00, at the highest point and higher volume than 4-week average. This is encouraging. The previous quarters may not be very good but they weren't actually horrible. It's just that investors' expectations were too high, and there had been many contra players on board too. Investors are starting to remember again that GTRONIC is a dividend-paying counter, and a regular payer too. At the present price, the dividend yield is very attractive.

I hope @Analyst will be shown to be right. As with those who have faith in this company.

Stock

2016-09-05 12:16 | Report Abuse

Hoping that it will close the day at 3.00 or above. The psychological factor is also important, not just the business. This counter needs to delete the image in investors' minds of "a RM2-plus counter".

Stock

2016-09-01 15:42 | Report Abuse

@tksw Wow! Good timing! You caught today's bottom.

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2016-09-01 10:39 | Report Abuse

Many have lost heart and are giving up on it. Can't blame them, especially if they are using margin trading. But eventually the selling will be over, when only the strong holders remain. That would be the better time to buy. These things are seasonal. This counter will have its day in the sun again. I believe sooner rather than later.

Stock

2016-09-01 10:34 | Report Abuse

Its business performance over the previous quarters has been good. Future prospects may not look excellent at the moment. But they are still reasonably good. However, can't ignore the trend. It is decidedly on a downtrend and it may not be wise to go against this at the moment.

This counter is on my list due to the previous dividends. But will need to see it carve a bottom first. I'm concerned about a slow slide. One sen down every few days will add up over a period. Have to be patient with a wait-and-see stance for now.

Stock

2016-08-25 17:24 | Report Abuse

Rather disappointing day. But have to view all angles. Today isn't a good day for most other counters either. Especially those that have hogged the limelight of late. Like FGV, AirAsia, DRBHICOM etc. Retail investors especially have gotten jittery and are selling. This mood has discouraged many from buying other counters too. Including Gtronic.

But one positive note: 2.90 appears to be the support for now. It may not be able to challenge 3.00 yet. But not slipping too far away is the next best situation. If Gtronic were to retrace its slide, it won't be a straight line upwards.

Just watch the support for now. It's back to strengthening the base first.

Stock

2016-08-25 10:59 | Report Abuse

Interesting that PHB's NTA is more than 2.00. But after seeing the results of the other Lion companies, must take this with a pinch of salt. With friendly accountants and auditors, you can hide and decorate a lot of things into looking more attractive than they really are. Not to accuse PHB and those involved of anything, of course.

But it's always prudent to be sceptical and suspicious. Especially after seeing the results of the other companies. Their NTA had looked decent too...until things couldn't be hidden anymore. If naive investors had based their buying on NTA alone, they'd have thought Lion Div etc are "good bargains"...until the impairments and write-offs are taken into account.

Would be interesting to see how PHB fares in the coming weeks and months. Could there be better times for it? William Cheng shoyld

Stock

2016-08-25 09:51 | Report Abuse

I had a quick look at Lion Diversified's results. Massive loss due to impairments. Especially Receivables. From whom is the money supposed to be from? Or is this something from within the Lion gang - left hand lending to the right, which then loses it?

The share buy-back sounds really out of place. Lion Div's NTA is now NEGATIVE. Just wondering where they are going to get the money from to buy the shares.

Stock

2016-08-24 18:13 | Report Abuse

This is good. After building a base at 2.90 over the past weeks, there's now a boost. Let's see how it handles the 3.00 resistance. It may have made less profits over the past couple of quarters but I feel the slide is overdone. Those who had given up had already left. So the ones remaining have stronger holding power. But Gtronic will need the contra players to be interested if it's to retrace its step. I'd say 3.50 is a reasonable TP all things considered. But one step at a time.

Stock

2016-08-24 09:54 | Report Abuse

2017 Q1, 3016 Q3 etc. are secondary. Price action matters the most. Since yesterday, when the very critical support level of 1.64 didn't hold, it became a Sell by default. And notice how it failed at least three times to claw back above 1.60, but failed. There's strong selling at that level.

This counter needs to establish a new support level first. At the moment this is very hazy. Better to wait first if you want to buy. Better at a higher price but being reasonably sure of the support. Trying to catch the lowest point is too risky although we may be lucky occasionally.

Stock

2016-08-23 23:23 | Report Abuse

Was curious to know more about this company after seeing the last quarter's turnover. Quite high. There's also a 9.5 sen dividend...? Only then did I do a search. So DKSH is... Diethelm! This is a quality counter. Should use Diethelm instead of the abbreviation which most people may not know.

This is definitely a counter for the genuine "investor".

Stock

2016-08-23 20:04 | Report Abuse

The comments from @probability yesterday, 23/8 before the quarter results announcement - turns out to be really savvy. Appreciate his and a few other peoples' opinions on FLB. They help us make better decisions.

Stock

2016-08-19 19:02 | Report Abuse

Angielim, 1.60 wasn't a sucker's price based on the historical average. Especially over the past couple of years. It's just unfortunate when a significant shareholder decides to dump.

By the way, the original shareholders are still in the plus even at this level. BJFOOD was less than 1.00 several years ago. It then started to go up and up.

The drop is unfortunate for those who had bought at a higher price. But that's how it is in the stock market. Right now it is becoming ever more attractive, and I know many people are eyeing it. The counter will find its new level soon enough.

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2016-08-19 18:42 | Report Abuse

Volume is huge today when compared to the average - 7.9 million. Will have to wait for the official announcement to Bursa on who the sellers were. Most likely Norge again. Just wondering why they are disposing on the open market, and not do a private placement. They might have gotten a better price.

Let's see how things go next week. If Norge is selling all 19 million units, there's another 11 million to go.

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2016-08-19 16:20 | Report Abuse

I definitely will buy BJFOOD regardless of the problems with KKR etc. Starbucks is the main attraction. But not in this situation where a significant shareholder is unloading. Don't know whether it will be the whole lot or 'just' to pare down. Either way, it simply giving away at Buyers' price will result in a continuous slide. Until don't-know-what-level.

More prudent to wait and see first. It's okay to miss the lowest price - something which we will never know until after the facts. I hate it when "cheap" gets cheaper. Better to buy at a higher price, but with reasonable confidence the worst is over.

Stock

2016-08-19 15:16 | Report Abuse

One significant shareholder has been selling. Norway bank, I think. The share buybacks have helped to mitigate. If not the price would be lower now. Have to wait for this bank to finish whatever percentage they want to unload first.

Stock

2016-08-19 09:57 | Report Abuse

The drop is likely due to some people already knowing the quarter results. I'm going to keep this in view. If it goes lower, will buy some lots. This is a genuine counter for "Investment". But, as with everything else, the buying price must be low enough so as to provide a margin of safety.

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2016-08-17 10:05 | Report Abuse

I think I'll wait for some discount first :-) Must have a buffer and a better chance.

Stock

2016-08-17 09:59 | Report Abuse

I'm back holding some lots of Mudajaya. Like everyone else, I have my biases and favourites too and Mudajaya is one. It's very true that one must never use his heart to make investment decisions. But I'm doing that anyway :-) However, there's a cut-loss point - go below that and I'm out.

Stock

2016-08-17 09:54 | Report Abuse

Yesterday's finish was good enough. Today it doesn't have to go up although that would be nice for short-term speculators. Just defend 2.90 so that traders will be reasonably confident it holds. Must build a base around this level first. Only then can the real push to retrace the decline start.

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2016-08-16 15:11 | Report Abuse

I'm a bit late to the party. Had already gone up. Must see whether it can break the resistance first.

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2016-08-16 15:09 | Report Abuse

High volume today. Something is going on. Might be worth a punt.

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2016-08-16 15:04 | Report Abuse

This is encouraging. If it finishes the day near the highest level, that's an indication of a real recovery.

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2016-08-16 15:01 | Report Abuse

Everything feels so nice when your counter goes up and up like this :-) This is yet another good example of having to be brave when quality counters go way below their usual average. Just buy and wait. Often, it's just for a couple of months or so.

Stock

2016-08-15 17:09 | Report Abuse

Another good day for PETRONM and some others. Just like that it's solidly in the RM4 category again. Congratulations to those who had bought at the lowest point. In restrospect, it was a no-brainer. Especially after it managed to break past tne 3.80 resistance. But that's how it is with many counters - we tend to be hesitant and pessimistic. And then looking at disbelief when it continues to go up.

Tomorrow is another story, of course. We don't know what will happen. But now I don't feel like such an idiot anymore holding this counter as a genuine investment (for the dividends).

Stock

2016-08-15 16:40 | Report Abuse

Angielim, it's very fair. Higher risk, higher returns. Remember the leverage principle - it works BOTH ways. Including the downside, of course. It's normal to lose 50% when a warrant trade goes bad. Or even 100% (when there is no buyer, even at 0.005).

I have part of my capital in warrants too. Not PETRONM-CA though (but I have UMWOG-C7 which is doing well right now). The outlays aren't big. Even if I lose big percentage-wise, the ringgit terms won't be destructive. Less profit, but I prefer to be cautious. Capital must always be protected. If it's not possible to profit, not possible to avoid a loss, then try to minimise the latter. Must always survive to fight another day.