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2016-02-24 10:10 | Report Abuse
There's a 7.5 sen dividend, isn't it? Plus proposed bonus issue. I think I'm going to take a punt on this. With a stop-loss at 2.20.
2016-02-24 09:49 | Report Abuse
It's not like investors didn't know times are hard. That's the reason this counter had gone down and down to 0.80-something at one time. "Investors" had sold because they had (rightly as it turns out) UMWOG will likely make a loss and there won't be any dividends until the environment gets better. This has mostly been priced in. The fourth quarter results have still been a shock though. The lower turnover is more worrying than the loss which is mostly impairment-related.
But with this kind of counter, I feel this factor is the most important of all - price action. It had been positive since a few weeks ago until it was jarred by the results. Will have to see how it goes during the day. If it closes above the lowest point, that would be encouraging. Even more encouraging would be above 1.00. This is very important due to the "penny counter" psychology.
2016-02-23 19:12 | Report Abuse
@jetli Interesting correlation between the share price with Brent Crude Oil there. Notice how this seems to be supported by the movements over the past few weeks. Including today. With a counter like this, I'd pay heed to price action than fundamentals. But must be clear that UMWOG is a counter for traders, not investors. It's definitely not something that you'd buy and hold.
2016-02-22 14:44 | Report Abuse
A few positives: 1.02 looks to be the new support. Which also means investors don't see UMWOG as "penny counter" anymore. Psychology and perception are very important. There seems to be more interest in this counter than Armada since last week. One negative though - traders in this counter are extremely jittery. They would run at the first sign of trouble.
2016-02-22 14:38 | Report Abuse
So far the support level of 0.225 looks strong. This level has been tested before. If it continues to hold, that will be a technical positive for Zelan. Because many weak holders have left. It will then need just one positive news to move back up. Let's see how it ends today, and the performance tomorrow.
2016-02-22 09:23 | Report Abuse
Down 2 sen... What's wrong now? The comment from @Henly30a - I hope he or someone can help explain what the problem is with Zelan. I don't have any, but this is one of the counters that I've been watching.
2016-02-18 12:10 | Report Abuse
Malakoff should be re-categorised as "Fixed Deposit". Hasn't gone anywhere the past few weeks. That's good when the general market is seeing a fall. But frustrating for shareholders when it's up while Malakoff is still sleeping.
2016-02-18 09:37 | Report Abuse
Crude oil prices - we can argue it either way. Of going down to $20 as analysts from Goldman Sachs etc say it will go to, or that the bottom has been found and it is recovering. But we will just be guessing, even though our arguments are reasonable. I feel it's better to use price action when it comes to the oil n gas counters. Act according to what the technical charts say. No guarantee of success. But at least there's a system.
2016-02-16 17:20 | Report Abuse
Encouraging finish by UMWOG. If I'm not wrong, 1.02 is the resistance. Get past this and the gap to the 50-day Moving Average shortens. It's critical to remain above 1.00 and erase the perception of "penny counter".
2016-02-16 15:33 | Report Abuse
@jacklintan Nothing in particular. But I did read about Dnex likely to be appointed for some vehicle registering matter. That's good because Censof is the major shareholder. But will have to see more details because this contract hasn't been awarded yet.
I have some money `sangkut' in Censof. Annoying, definitely. But I'll wait because 0.255 looks to be solid support. Seems to be an okay software services company. Nothing too exciting at the moment though.
2016-02-16 11:01 | Report Abuse
Waiting to see whether UMWOG manages to stay at or above 1.00. This is a critical psychological point. I believe more so than the daily crude oil price changes. If it manages that, then 1.00 will become the new support.
2016-02-15 16:18 | Report Abuse
@ckkhen If we can get it right every time, life would be perfect. But based on previous experiences, nobody can do that. Except liars. No matter how much research we do on the fundamentals, plus with technical analyst to help with the buying, the market continues to confound and disappoint us time and again. Therefore it makes a lot of sense to have a Plan B.
Just imagine what would have happened with that example - Shell - had one put up a significant part of his capital betting on a rebound, and without a stop-loss in place. And using margin trading some more. We have to take risks to be in the position to make a profit. But capital management and strategy are critical. If we lose, then we lose. But we must ensure we live to fight another day.
Setting (and then executing) a cut-loss point is just one of the strategies, of course. I know of people who generally don't cut loss. My father is one of them (until he retired from Bursa around the end of 2013. Good time to cash out as things turned out). They would just let that purchase get stuck and wait. Often for years! The amazing thing is that, provided these counters didn't get delisted, most would EVENTUALLY turn the way. But most of us don't have this kind of stamina and patience. That means cutting loss early is often the better thing to do. Lick our wounds, regroup and then try again with the capital that was rescued.
2016-02-15 11:34 | Report Abuse
At least Parkson is doing better than Shell which I had bought recently. For now. Which brings me to what we can learn from both so as to be better investors/traders/speculators. These are what I have learnt:
1) Don't buy anything that's on a downtrend and with the support line not proven yet. While it's true that we don't know the future, technical analysis does help with our decisions. With Parkson, the support level isn't known yet. Could be at this level, could be some way to go.
2) Should we decide to buy something for whatever reasons which we think are valid, must still have a cut-loss in place. No matter how good and confident we feel about a counter. This cut-loss should be based on the support as shown in the technical charts. Or an arbitrary number (like 8%, 10% below buying price).
With Parkson, if one had bought at 2.00, he should have set a cut-loss at a point just below the previous support line during that time. Would have saved from suffering the pain of seeing it slowly slide. That's the danger when counters slide SLOWLY like this - the investor tends to wait. Minus one sen every two weeks doesn't look bad. But it adds up over time. Might be `better' had there been a sudden drop - the investor might be stimulated into doing something immediately.
The discipline is critical - something which I must improve on. If not, I shouldn't be risking most of my capital on anything. Had bought Shell at 3.64. Had decided on the cut-loss (below 3.40, which was the support at that time). Normally I would have done that. But with Shell, I didn't. The result: Padan muka... It's fortunate that I didn't risk serious money with that one else I'd be in trouble right now.
3) Don't average down but average up. "If 2.00 had looked like a good price, then 95 sen is even better"...? Not so if it gets even lower. Nobody likes to be wrong. But we must put ego aside and be practical when it comes to protecting our capital, and trying to make a profit in the market. One big lesson from experience which I'm sure you all will agree: "Cheap" can always become cheaper. So, don't throw good money after bad. At the very least, wait for a counter to show signs that it has reached a bottom, AND is moving the other way. We may have to pay a higher price, but the probability of making a profit is higher this way.
4) When a counter is on an uptrend, it's on an uptrend. Doesn't matter if it's a stupid company with donkey management. Or even if it's making a loss. If "capital appreciation" is one's main goal, of course, and not dividends. Parkson will find a bottom eventually. And then retrace some of the fall. But the time isn't now. Could be "soon", could be "some time".
2016-02-12 18:43 | Report Abuse
@ks55 The quarter report is eagerly awaited. This will move Parkson either way. Can only speculate for now although I suspect the numbers won't be particularly inspiring. I had been to the Maju Junction outlet not long ago, and it was very quiet. To be fair it was towards noon on a work day. My main regret - should have bought a few pants. Some okay brands were on sale. Only when at home did I really appreciate it. My purchase might have helped with the quarter's revenue figures...couple of hundred :-)
I'm also intrigued by Anglie Lim's and Parkson's comments. It has gone down so much and for so long I'm wondering how many sellers are still out there. The shareholders i.e William Cheng's companies aren't likely to sell on the open market, right? So, its price should remain around this range in the next week or two pending the quarter report. Certainly better than the Shell units I had gotten last week. Now down 20% Haiyaa. Serves me right for ignoring consistent use of fundamentals and technical readings, and buying solely based on emotions (the name. I had also bought UMWOG based on... UMW). But don't worry - won't be driven to borrow from the local friendly Along even if it drops 90% :-)
Anyway, with Parkson - as with my "speculations" portfolio, I'm watching for movements. And jumping in when some specifics are met. Just looking for an opportunity for some quick gains.
2016-02-12 18:19 | Report Abuse
Censof is up today. For once. Hopefully that means 0.25 is solid support (for now).
2016-02-12 13:12 | Report Abuse
Why give any thought to calls that are not backed by any facts and figures, and a sound argument. Either Buy or Sell. I would just skip through and move on until I find something that could be useful. Over time, you will know the good ones from the noise. The former ALWAYS come up with thoughtful opinions, and are reasonable. Never "Run for your lives!!!", "Buy! Sure to go up next week!", and nothing else.
In the financial analysis, when buying and selling, always act in OUR individual best interest. This is based on reading and evaluating the facts and figures, and the arguments, the best that we can. Not on someone shouting Buy or Sell. And not solely based on what some investment bank analyst say either, if though he might also accompany that with pretty charts and tables. It's our individual money at stake here where no one else will come to help should we get into trouble. Or us having to share when things go our way. Ultimately we are fully responsible for our decisions, and the ensuing consequences. And no one else.
2016-02-11 18:34 | Report Abuse
This is one of the counters that I check on every day...waiting for a sign that it has FINALLY found its bottom. And a hint that it might move in the other direction. When it does, there will be the potential for at least a 30% capital gain within a couple of months. Haven't seen any sign of green shoots appearing yet. So...Keep on checking and waiting.
2016-02-11 17:44 | Report Abuse
Entertaining watching these HSI- kakis :-) Now I'm getting itchy fingers.
2016-02-11 16:42 | Report Abuse
Heheh! Confident ye. Boleh try sebagai "entertainment". Masuk sikit-sikit...dan cepat lari.
2016-02-11 12:11 | Report Abuse
@Probability - That is why I follow posts by people like KC Chong. It's not just the individual posts but also the comments from others. The constructive ones, of course. When people share their knowledge and experience, and thoughtful opinions, everyone benefits. I had been involved on-off in Bursa Malaysia since the 80s. When it comes to information, opinions, constructive arguments and criticisms, we've never had it this good. No guarantees the individual would make a profit over any given time period, but his chances are way better than in previous years. It's thanks to sites like this and bloggers like KC Chong etc.
2016-02-10 21:29 | Report Abuse
Interesting. But should also remember EPF sells AND buys counters all the time. That's how they average down or up their portfolio. But transactions by it, PNB and similar giants are worth noting. Must keep watch and see whether it continues to do so in the coming days. Every small investor holding Shell right now has become a speculator, albeit unwillingly for some. Because a significant move either way will depend on news concerning the new controlling shareholder.
2016-02-10 15:05 | Report Abuse
XiangSheng81 Please take note that the Shell as listed at Bursa is the refinery business. "SRC", With most of the assets in Port Dickson. And NOT the fuel stations, which I believe is the better business. Like Petronas Dagangan.
This isn't to say SRC is 'not good'. But be aware that it has been making losses the past few years due to various reasons. It used to pay quite good dividends before that.
I had bought a few shares last week and I'm going to admit this - it was based on emotions. The name...this was the attraction. But knowing it was an emotional decision, I was cautious and didn't put in serious money. If it slides to below 2.00... I will be annoyed, but it won't put a serious dent on my portfolio. If it doubles in price, I won't become rich either :-) But hopefully I will be quick to add more shares when it's turning the other way.
2016-02-10 14:24 | Report Abuse
Odd, isn't it? Europe, Britain, US, Japan, China all trying to devalue their currencies. And wanting MORE inflation. Most of us in Malaysia want it to be the other way. Except for those holding export-oriented counters, of course :-) But that's essentially it when it comes to currency appreciation or depreciation - "our individual position". Good or Bad is relative. There are critical things which we have zero control over. But we can do something about it in the form of our response; to adapt and try to benefit.
2016-02-10 12:07 | Report Abuse
The part about not treating OPINIONS by analysts and so-called experts is worth remembering. Some people confidently declare ringgit, crude oil etc. will be such-and-such "for 2016", and therefore investing decisions must be based on these. These may actually come about. But we must remember they are all only GUESSING. No matter what models they use, with colourful charts lines and all that look convincing, it's a fact that NO ONE knows the future. One or two changes in the variables may lead to a totally different outcome.
Read and think about all of these opinions. But make your own conclusions and decisions, because it's your money at stake here. My general stance and strategy: since we don't know what will happen (in detail), the next best thing to do is to respond...to just follow the trend. And to always hedge when things are so volatile and unclear, as right now. Buy dividend-paying counters when they suffer a fall (and thereby getting higher dividend yield)...AND ALSO put warrant of FBMKLCI-H as insurance just in case. As always, timing is important. But it is indeed possible to get better prices for anything when we aren't hurried while being decisive. No guarantee we will succeed. But at least we have a plan.
2016-02-10 11:26 | Report Abuse
#1 OPM - I agree with the general precaution here, about investors/speculators often not taking into full consideration the impact towards their account and capital when things move the other way. At the moment, I'm not using margin. But I feel it should also be considered as an option to be utilised on certain occasions. Despite the risks.
It's a bit like a credit card too - it's not the CC or margin that's the main problem, but the person using it. To me, it's always better when we have more choices. Having a CC or margin shouldn't mean we are using it all the time. When used properly, it can be a very useful tool. The more important thing to consider is in having a proper plan, including prudent capital management and the discipline to execute cut loss at a predetermined point. And also to take profit when the indicators say that the better thing to do.
2016-02-05 18:42 | Report Abuse
I believe the next few trading days after CNY will see contra players squaring their positions. Either in mitigating losses or making a small profit. Then the price will stabilise around a fairly tight range. It will be the developments after that which will decide one of two things: it spirals down to a lower level of below 3.00; or it rebounds. Most likely not to 4.94 as before the sale announcement news, but certainly higher than now.
As it is, everyone is just shooting in the dark and speculating. Including me. At this moment, there are a few critical details which aren't known yet. Firstly, on the listing status - would the new controlling shareholder continue with being public-listed or would they privatise? An announcement either way will move the price. This is assuming the purchase is approved by the authorities. It likely will be, but it's not a 100% certainty yet.
If Shell is still public-listed, there's a possibility of a cash call. Many investors don't like rights issues, but in Shell's case, it looks justifiable. Undertaking this will put SRC on a much better financial footing, especially in dealing with the loans and upgrading the facilities. I'd say institutions like EPF and PNB will be supportive.
One other wildcard - the last quarter report. This will be very useful for investors to assess. Shell International and the China company already know, most likely. And the figures might not be encouraging (else Shell would have squeezed for a higher selling price). Let's wait and see how things unfold from after CNY.
2016-02-04 11:22 | Report Abuse
"follow the trend" from @sharktank - Thanks for reminding me. Must remember and adhere to this. Significantly better chance of making some money. And minimising loss when it's not possible.
2016-02-04 11:06 | Report Abuse
Appreciate very much the comments and insight by @StingRay on the refineries here and nearby. These are a lot more useful than the conjectures and speculations.
2016-02-03 20:45 | Report Abuse
This one looks interesting. Went down with most other counters yesterday but has rebounded to above 1.00 again. This is notable, and psychologically important. Going to check on its previous quarterly reports and check the technical charts. But only 2 trading days remaining before CNY. Will have to hold over a long weekend - again - and hope there's no shocking, earth-shaking event when our market is closed.
2016-02-03 17:41 | Report Abuse
Actually refineries benefit when crude oil, which is the feedstock, falls. See the quarter and annual reports of refineries in the US and elsewhere where the fuel prices aren't controlled by the government. It doesn't matter too much what price crude oil generally is at. These refineries will set the fuel prices accordingly.
But in Malaysia and many countries, fuel prices are controlled. The pricing mechanism and especially timing of price change had resulted in losses for refineries. To an extent, petrol-station owners have to shoulder this too lately. It's something that needs to be resolved. The decision by Shell to withdraw from refining here should result in the government considering.
2016-02-03 16:18 | Report Abuse
@chonghai Thanks for the figures. With this refinery, despite the debts and heavy expenditure to upgrade, one thing is sure - it's one of the critical facilities that we have in the country. Even if it's not government-controlled (which is a good thing). Sure, there are other refineries elsewhere but the output from Port Dickson is a very important link in the supply chain when it comes to fuel.
There is the cost of replacement - what would it take to build something similar from scratch, at a location around the west coast of the peninsula. I don't know, but it's safe to assume "very expensive". Not to mention the hassle of getting the approvals before even the land-clearing could start. So SRC, based on these factors, is a very valuable asset regardless of the current financial issues. And since organisations like EPF and PNB are vested, the government will surely take steps to ensure nothing about SRC's operations and existence are jeopardised. The country's energy security is involved here.
2016-02-03 15:30 | Report Abuse
You went out already?? Now I'm in a dilemma - take a quick profit or hold out for more. Maybe I'll stay on and be a "semi-investor". Just a week ago, had thought about buying Shell at 5.00. Now that I've gotten at a significantly lower price, I've become hesitant.
2016-02-03 15:20 | Report Abuse
This "local buyer" which Perdasama claims - is it Boustead? The latter was sore about the sale of Esso to San Miguel a few years ago, because it wanted the controlling stake. Justified to an extent because it's in the downstream/retail business with BHP. But there were side deals involved between Exxon and San Miguel. It's not just a matter of "highest price secures". As with SRC. If not, Shell would have called for biddings to secure the highest price.
More details and development will follow, of course. These uncertainties aren't good for INVESTORS. But I'm not one. And neither are hng33 and many/most of us here :-)
2016-02-03 15:10 | Report Abuse
@hng33 In that case, I'm going to punt. But not much; just half of what I had allocated. And with a stop-loss in place. Just hope I'll have the discipline to execute should it come to that. Have to take risks if we want to TRY make a profit. As with the telcos and glove makers earlier.
2016-02-03 14:24 | Report Abuse
Those other shareholders of EPF, PNB, KWAP etc. - are they at the sidelines or have they been selling some of their shares too? It's critical to know their stance in this. If they are holding on and sticking to the status quo, albeit a new controlling shareholder, the price shouldn't go down too much after this. But that's the problem - we don't know what they plan to do. Will only know after the facts, through the filings to Bursa.
Another thing - I presume the new owner plans to keep SRC listed at Bursa, right? This part is also critical.
2016-02-03 14:12 | Report Abuse
The below market price which Shell had agreed to - there is most likely a side deal which it is getting /will get, either directly from this China company, its associates or from the government in China. This kind of horse-trading goes on all the time. Good for Shell and the new buyer, if course. But often not so for the minority shareholders.
The China company looks to be in for the long haul. Most likely it has the financing lined up to make those heavy capital expenditures to upgrade the facilities. Plus to service the loans.
If it's only at 1.90, or just slightly higher, no one will take up the MGO offer, of course. That means the other shareholders will have to put up with what the new owner plans. There might be a rights issue being planned, which isn't a totally bad thing if one is a genuine long-term investor.
Another possibility - SRC might enlist the other refiners to get a better deal for themselves from the government when it comes to prices. Including the timing of announcements. Volatile crude oil prices over the past couple of years had resulted in losses. They had bought at a higher price, but had to sell the refined products lower due to the government pricing mechanism. These refineries have genuine cause to be unhappy. It's possible the government will want to tweak the mechanism.
So that leaves us all - what now? The price now is definitely the cheapest that it had been for...What, more than 15 years? But there's the worry about it getting even lower, of course. Might be a long wait before SRC becomes investor-grade again.
2016-02-02 14:23 | Report Abuse
This counter is good for those who want reasonable dividends. Not likely to get a heart attack when it comes to price movements. "Old man/pensioner" type of counter with almost zero excitement. Even if one is more of a trader, I think should also have some lots of REITS to serve as ballast in the portfolio. When some sector is on a clear uptrend, can sell the REITS and use as capital. In the meantime, just wait for the dividends from this one.
2016-02-02 09:14 | Report Abuse
Suspended... Until When?
2016-02-01 22:15 | Report Abuse
Very mature and reasonable comment by @kahhoeng. This is the kind of attitude which helps investors make the right decisions. And not having a cocksure, overconfident "What could possibly go wrong! Sure to go up" attitude, and most likely receiving some come-uppance. It's always better to be humble and cautious. But decisive after weighing the pros and cons.
This is a very significant development. We had already heard about the China company wanting to buy. But the price which they are paying for the majority stake - looks very low. Why is Shell giving away at this price? It's possible there are side deals here - the China company gets this cheap while Shell is given an attractive deal somewhere.
Let's wait for more details. And see how the market reacts tomorrow. There could be opportunities. Better to keep an open mind.
2016-01-31 15:06 | Report Abuse
Foreign investors, like local investors too - they will put in money in markets and counters that they think will at least protect their capital, with reasonable opportunity for appreciation. Yes, they come in and out. Nothing wrong with that. In fact, this kind of behaviour is expected. Everyone wants to protect and try maximise their capital.
There are signs the foreign investors are starting to nibble at Bursa again. Ringgit has recovered somewhat, and many counters are quite attractive. Certainly more attractive than the prices of US counters.
As for Evergreen, it too cannot escape from investors rotating. These export-oriented counters had gone up quite a lot. Many investors are cashing in and looking to ride the next uptrend get sector and companies. Whatever these might be. We the small fish should be alert for opportunities to 'tumpang'.
2016-01-29 17:39 | Report Abuse
Generally a very satisfying day for many of us long-suffering oil n gas punters. Let's see whether crude oil's rebound is defended during US trading. As long as it stays above $30, that should be tolerable enough. Still very low but not sliding lower can already be regarded as positive development.
Still way too early to tell but if oil n gas counters have seen the bottom, then it's time to nibble. Rotate from export-oriented counters. Ringgit has recovered some ground. Foreign investors might see their markets as being shaky and may return to Bursa and other emerging markets. We will lay out the red carpet for those fellows :-)
2016-01-15 11:43 | Report Abuse
No matter how long someone has been in the market, it's a never-ending process when it comes to learning. The day that someone thinks he knows everything and have seen it all, that's the day he atrophies.
We WILL make mistakes, that's for sure. At the same time, there will be successes too. I think the most important of all is that we learn something from these. Only then can we become better and more consistent.
2016-01-15 11:24 | Report Abuse
@ColaBear Maybe it's better to average UP. Wait for the technical charts to indicate it has found a bottom and building a new Base around that. At least. Better still, to wait for an uptrend to start, whenever that might be. May have to pay a higher price than now but that's better than buying 'low' and possibly seeing something get lower.
2016-01-14 21:46 | Report Abuse
One cold hard fact we must accept when it comes to public-listed companies - the controlling shareholder/s call ALL the shots. We minority shareholders are in just for the ride, and hopefully able to feast from their leftovers. At a luxury banquet, leftovers are still great actually, with delicious steak and lobster. If you drink, the leftover champagne and expensive cognac would still bomb you out, even if you are just salvaging.
With these companies, it's not how many hands are raised in support or objection against something but "the percentage" a hand represents. Most of us don't own even 0.5% of a counter - even when 100 combine, it's still insignificant. We can shout and scream but our opinions don't matter squat, unfortunately. Controlling shareholders putting their children, grandfather as directors...what can we do? That's how things are. Rather than "raging against the machine", I've decided to just reluctantly accept things when it comes to companies in Bursa.
Anyway, with Puncak, my thinking goes like this: 1) It may not control water in Selangor anymore but it has a respectable cash pile. 2) The controlling shareholder (Rozali) seems to be in the power-that-be good books. Federal and state. And he has connections, which is very important. 3) It's also in his benefit and self-interest to ensure Puncak does well. I believe this is his main company - his identity and legacy are tied to this. Something like "Duta Yap".
As such, I'm going to try 'tumpang'...and maybe pick up some of the leftovers. If I'm wrong...well, it won't be the first time I'm wrong. Or the tenth time. But I'm going to give this counter reasonable time. If the share price continues to slide up to a certain point, and falls past the important supports, I will cut loss and lick my wounds. I just hope I'll have the discipline to do so, should it indeed come to that.
2016-01-14 21:16 | Report Abuse
By the way, the "Buy more" in my earlier comment refers to put warrants. NOT ordinary shares, of course. Just in case some people read too quickly and misunderstand :-) Particularly the FBMKLCI-H puts that have reasonable life left (at least 3 months) left, AND selling at a reasonable premium.
But I do know many people don't use these index put warrants to hedge anything - they are just speculating Bursa's index will suffer a steep fall. Nothing wrong with that - different people have different ideas and strategies when it comes to TRYING to make money. And they had a roaring great time last August when these put warrants went up at least 100%. With my hedging strategy, it's for some peace of mind. We will sleep better when we know we are somewhat protected whereby our losses would be manageable.
2016-01-14 17:56 | Report Abuse
@jacklintan: Something that I had read some time ago - if we look for everything to be good before we'd put any money in the stockmarket, the time will be... never. Because there will ALWAYS be something or other that is of concern. You have been in the market for some time, right? Just take any period from the past several years - 2014, 2013, 2011 - any year. Try to remember all the negative factors factors which had scared off investors. There were quite a few. Greece, for instance, which would come to `kacau' our market. Political tension, general elections in Malaysia and whatever else. And of course, August 2015. Before that was the crude oil slide (still going on). Now it's China, crude oil (again), strong dollar (again), Islamic State etc. Things will never be perfect.
But having said that, it won't do to throw all caution to the wind. We must create our own strategy, according to our own appetite for risk, experience and what we hope to achieve. With me, I'd divide the capital into a few categories, and allocate the money accordingly. First category are counters that pay a reasonable dividend. Rock-solid companies like Selangor Properties, Boustead and such. Whenever any that are on my list goes down significantly, I try to force myself to be brave and just buy. And then wait it out.
The second category are counters "that display strength". Either individually or its group. For instance, "Export-oriented" - the gloves makers, furniture etc. which have been doing well due to ringgit's depreciation. A few years ago, it was Oil & Gas. Before that was Plantation. Telcos would also have their day. But watch the technical indicators - if certain support levels don't hold, then it's time to say goodbye.
The third category is mixed. Including structured warrants and all the nonsensical donkey companies. But donkey or not, when something is going up, I'd want to have some shares in it :-)
And when it comes to managing capital - never put everything in stocks. Even if the money is meant to buy stocks. It's more prudent to have a significant amount of cash in hand. Right now, I'm committing just one-third for the time being. Should the market not go my way, I can take comfort that I still have two-thirds left (more when the cut-loss counters are sold). Don't be too hurried, even if we feel `good' about some counter. Nothing is guaranteed. When sentiments get better, can use another one-third to invest.
2016-01-14 13:38 | Report Abuse
By the way, if you have a significant amount in the various counters, might not be a bad idea to have some sort of insurance in the form of put warrants. Unfortunately, the investment banks have issued only a few that are specific to individual counters. And the ex. prices are unattractive. The next best are the index-based put warrants, like FBMKLCI-H(something).
I had bought some lots of these. Not to speculate but to keep me from getting overly nervous and stressed out when the market suffers a fall. These put warrants would go up in price and thereby help mitigate the paper losses of the various counters. You will have to decide for yourselves how much money you are going to put in these put warrants. As a rule of thumb, I think 5-10% of one's portfolio value should be adequate. But if you are really worried and think the market will crash, then buy more. Regardless of how we think the market will perform in the coming days, it's a good thing to hedge.
2016-01-14 13:27 | Report Abuse
Remember the sharp fall of August last year? Many people had sold off in panic. Some, rather late in the fall. Crude oil going down, ringgit depreciating, 1MDB etc. Buyers who saw value had emerged in dividend-paying stocks were mocked (for example Media Prima, which went close to 1.00). Many of these counters brought in capital returns of at least 30% just a couple of months later.
I certainly don't know how things would transpire in the coming days and weeks. It might be the beginning of a long slide, or things might actually start to pick up (even though at this very moment it doesn't look anywhere like it). My own belief is this: there will be sharp falls AND rebounds. In other words, volatility. This isn't good for genuine investors but it's something which traders and speculators look forward to.
There are ALWAYS opportunities in the stock market, as well as risks. I think it's a question of managing these - to have the courage to buy something after doing research, which includes taking the downside possibilities. And to cut loss quickly when things don't work out, PLUS to take profits and not linger too long. Hopefully, the all-important luck factor will also be with us - there are just too many variables which are beyond our ability to accurately know about and assess.
2016-01-14 12:10 | Report Abuse
Puncak has got a big cash pile, right? This is an aspect worth taking note of when it comes to assessing a company's survival prospects in lean times. I agree with the general opinions here, and have also taken @stkoay's caution into account. I'm also encouraged by @hng33 coming in - he may often be in for the very short term but he's someone who does his homework when it comes to assessing the technical charts. I think I'm coming in too. But using only half of what I had planned for this counter. And having a stop loss set in case it goes down further.
Stock: [CLIQ-WA]: CLIQ ENERGY BERHAD-WA 13/16
2016-02-24 12:06 | Report Abuse
This warrant is expiring, with no value. But why are people still buying it? Is there some chance of it becoming of value during the time that remains?