This is encouraging. Despite the huge impairment, the share price is down only 1 sen. Big volume today but 0.26 seems to be a solid floor. Have to take note of the price action. For traders, this is more important than financial results. For investors...this isn't a counter you should be looking at. Unlikely to give out any dividends.

Many traders' timespan is limited to only the contra period. Or, at most, a few weeks. If day trading is their thing, then that's fine. Their capital, their choice of method. Have to say that I do indulge in very short-term trading too at times. At the same time, I do have a specific portfolio with the allocated capital for counters that I believe have businesses that should still be around at least 10 years from now. Regardless if there's a worldwide severe recession.

I see TDM as one of the potentials. This isn't a counter that will create much excitement among traders. As mentioned in the previous comment, there will be the time when investors start to favour plantations again, and I'd want to have these counters when they are prepared to pay a premium. Whether it will go to 0.60 or below again, no one knows. But there is one thing that we should take note of: CPO had likely found the floor when it went to RM1,900 or so some months ago. If that's the case, then it's reasonable to expect better results in the future. Subject to production, of course.

Have to come in and buy sooner or later. Must be realistic and not be too hopeful about "the best case scenario" - buying, and it later turns out to be the best price possible. Most likely it will drop...and then turn north. This kind of counter requires commitment - once I decide to buy, must be prepared to wait. And ignoring the daily price movements.

@Gtrader Thanks for the analysis and opinion. This is the kind of comment that adds value here. Even if things don't pan out as projected, thoughtful analyses are always appreciated. These are so unlike the "Run for your lives", "Buy!! Will go up 20 sen by next month!!" which aren't backed by anything. Even if they turn out to be correct, these comments are essentially useless.

I'm watching the plantations too. Commodities are cyclical. Even though prices are depressed, CPO seems to have come off the bottom. But timing is critical too, as with the buying price. It's always a good thing to be able to buy at a reasonable level. With TDM I'll wait a bit more. Let the market shake out the weak holders first.

If you use a "long enough" time frame (and that means more than one year), these old-brand counters will eventually move in the other direction. Things tend to happen. I've seen this happen again and again. Useless losers become darlings. But there are also those that disappear, of course. Quite a number too. So, we don't really know what's to come although being in the retail business isn't attractive right now. It's also the same with the oil n gas counters. Now most everyone shun them. Justified, of course. But times and circumstances do change. The question is, can we wait and wait?

Nowadays I try to go with the flow. Especially in trying to spot a trend, and getting in. Easier said than done though. There is always this "Already gone up a lot lah...", and getting to my bad habits of trying to catch the bottom of counters. I've had successes, and it's very satisfying. But alot of the time, the darn counters would go down further! Even though they were already 'cheap'. Have to accept the reality of this one: a counter STILL can go down even more. Which is why I now try to catch things that are going up.

With Parkson, I don't really know about its business prospects. As with the other companies. Oh, I'd read what the investment bank analysts say, of course. And I'd look at basics like EPS and the dividend yield. The latter is very important if you intend to hold for some time. Always nice to receive these dividends. Provided the share price hasn't gone down too much. With Parkson etc., I will be a "fair weather friend". If it's not doing well, I stay away. But watch. When it starts to perform, I will be its buddy :-) Have to take care of OUR interest first and foremost.

If you really want to buy for some reason, including to average down, I feel the better thing to do is to WAIT first. "If buying at 1.50 had been a 'good' price, then 0.88 is better"...? No. Because it can always get lower. By how much, no one knows. Heck, this might be the lowest point ever, and the price will start recovering from tomorrow. Or not (which is more likely).

The point is, we will be guessing either way. I feel it's much better to let the charts indicate a bottom has been reached AND it's clearly recovering again. Not doing anything IS an action too. Keep your capital in cash for now, if Parkson is what you want to buy. There will come the time when the price moves the other direction. It definitely isn't now...yet.

The link from @speakup - it's a statement released today. Cliq failed to get an extension for their qualifying acquisition. The warrants can only be converted if the acquisition is made and approved. Which isn't. That means Cliq will give back the money collected, and then cease to exist. So there's no question of converting - you can't.

This warrant is expiring, with no value. But why are people still buying it? Is there some chance of it becoming of value during the time that remains?

There's a 7.5 sen dividend, isn't it? Plus proposed bonus issue. I think I'm going to take a punt on this. With a stop-loss at 2.20.

It's not like investors didn't know times are hard. That's the reason this counter had gone down and down to 0.80-something at one time. "Investors" had sold because they had (rightly as it turns out) UMWOG will likely make a loss and there won't be any dividends until the environment gets better. This has mostly been priced in. The fourth quarter results have still been a shock though. The lower turnover is more worrying than the loss which is mostly impairment-related.

But with this kind of counter, I feel this factor is the most important of all - price action. It had been positive since a few weeks ago until it was jarred by the results. Will have to see how it goes during the day. If it closes above the lowest point, that would be encouraging. Even more encouraging would be above 1.00. This is very important due to the "penny counter" psychology.

@jetli Interesting correlation between the share price with Brent Crude Oil there. Notice how this seems to be supported by the movements over the past few weeks. Including today. With a counter like this, I'd pay heed to price action than fundamentals. But must be clear that UMWOG is a counter for traders, not investors. It's definitely not something that you'd buy and hold.

A few positives: 1.02 looks to be the new support. Which also means investors don't see UMWOG as "penny counter" anymore. Psychology and perception are very important. There seems to be more interest in this counter than Armada since last week. One negative though - traders in this counter are extremely jittery. They would run at the first sign of trouble.

So far the support level of 0.225 looks strong. This level has been tested before. If it continues to hold, that will be a technical positive for Zelan. Because many weak holders have left. It will then need just one positive news to move back up. Let's see how it ends today, and the performance tomorrow.

Down 2 sen... What's wrong now? The comment from @Henly30a - I hope he or someone can help explain what the problem is with Zelan. I don't have any, but this is one of the counters that I've been watching.

Malakoff should be re-categorised as "Fixed Deposit". Hasn't gone anywhere the past few weeks. That's good when the general market is seeing a fall. But frustrating for shareholders when it's up while Malakoff is still sleeping.

Crude oil prices - we can argue it either way. Of going down to $20 as analysts from Goldman Sachs etc say it will go to, or that the bottom has been found and it is recovering. But we will just be guessing, even though our arguments are reasonable. I feel it's better to use price action when it comes to the oil n gas counters. Act according to what the technical charts say. No guarantee of success. But at least there's a system.

Encouraging finish by UMWOG. If I'm not wrong, 1.02 is the resistance. Get past this and the gap to the 50-day Moving Average shortens. It's critical to remain above 1.00 and erase the perception of "penny counter".

@jacklintan Nothing in particular. But I did read about Dnex likely to be appointed for some vehicle registering matter. That's good because Censof is the major shareholder. But will have to see more details because this contract hasn't been awarded yet.

I have some money `sangkut' in Censof. Annoying, definitely. But I'll wait because 0.255 looks to be solid support. Seems to be an okay software services company. Nothing too exciting at the moment though.

Waiting to see whether UMWOG manages to stay at or above 1.00. This is a critical psychological point. I believe more so than the daily crude oil price changes. If it manages that, then 1.00 will become the new support.

@ckkhen If we can get it right every time, life would be perfect. But based on previous experiences, nobody can do that. Except liars. No matter how much research we do on the fundamentals, plus with technical analyst to help with the buying, the market continues to confound and disappoint us time and again. Therefore it makes a lot of sense to have a Plan B.

Just imagine what would have happened with that example - Shell - had one put up a significant part of his capital betting on a rebound, and without a stop-loss in place. And using margin trading some more. We have to take risks to be in the position to make a profit. But capital management and strategy are critical. If we lose, then we lose. But we must ensure we live to fight another day.

Setting (and then executing) a cut-loss point is just one of the strategies, of course. I know of people who generally don't cut loss. My father is one of them (until he retired from Bursa around the end of 2013. Good time to cash out as things turned out). They would just let that purchase get stuck and wait. Often for years! The amazing thing is that, provided these counters didn't get delisted, most would EVENTUALLY turn the way. But most of us don't have this kind of stamina and patience. That means cutting loss early is often the better thing to do. Lick our wounds, regroup and then try again with the capital that was rescued.

At least Parkson is doing better than Shell which I had bought recently. For now. Which brings me to what we can learn from both so as to be better investors/traders/speculators. These are what I have learnt:

1) Don't buy anything that's on a downtrend and with the support line not proven yet. While it's true that we don't know the future, technical analysis does help with our decisions. With Parkson, the support level isn't known yet. Could be at this level, could be some way to go.

2) Should we decide to buy something for whatever reasons which we think are valid, must still have a cut-loss in place. No matter how good and confident we feel about a counter. This cut-loss should be based on the support as shown in the technical charts. Or an arbitrary number (like 8%, 10% below buying price).

With Parkson, if one had bought at 2.00, he should have set a cut-loss at a point just below the previous support line during that time. Would have saved from suffering the pain of seeing it slowly slide. That's the danger when counters slide SLOWLY like this - the investor tends to wait. Minus one sen every two weeks doesn't look bad. But it adds up over time. Might be `better' had there been a sudden drop - the investor might be stimulated into doing something immediately.

The discipline is critical - something which I must improve on. If not, I shouldn't be risking most of my capital on anything. Had bought Shell at 3.64. Had decided on the cut-loss (below 3.40, which was the support at that time). Normally I would have done that. But with Shell, I didn't. The result: Padan muka... It's fortunate that I didn't risk serious money with that one else I'd be in trouble right now.

3) Don't average down but average up. "If 2.00 had looked like a good price, then 95 sen is even better"...? Not so if it gets even lower. Nobody likes to be wrong. But we must put ego aside and be practical when it comes to protecting our capital, and trying to make a profit in the market. One big lesson from experience which I'm sure you all will agree: "Cheap" can always become cheaper. So, don't throw good money after bad. At the very least, wait for a counter to show signs that it has reached a bottom, AND is moving the other way. We may have to pay a higher price, but the probability of making a profit is higher this way.

4) When a counter is on an uptrend, it's on an uptrend. Doesn't matter if it's a stupid company with donkey management. Or even if it's making a loss. If "capital appreciation" is one's main goal, of course, and not dividends. Parkson will find a bottom eventually. And then retrace some of the fall. But the time isn't now. Could be "soon", could be "some time".

@ks55 The quarter report is eagerly awaited. This will move Parkson either way. Can only speculate for now although I suspect the numbers won't be particularly inspiring. I had been to the Maju Junction outlet not long ago, and it was very quiet. To be fair it was towards noon on a work day. My main regret - should have bought a few pants. Some okay brands were on sale. Only when at home did I really appreciate it. My purchase might have helped with the quarter's revenue figures...couple of hundred :-)

I'm also intrigued by Anglie Lim's and Parkson's comments. It has gone down so much and for so long I'm wondering how many sellers are still out there. The shareholders i.e William Cheng's companies aren't likely to sell on the open market, right? So, its price should remain around this range in the next week or two pending the quarter report. Certainly better than the Shell units I had gotten last week. Now down 20% Haiyaa. Serves me right for ignoring consistent use of fundamentals and technical readings, and buying solely based on emotions (the name. I had also bought UMWOG based on... UMW). But don't worry - won't be driven to borrow from the local friendly Along even if it drops 90% :-)

Anyway, with Parkson - as with my "speculations" portfolio, I'm watching for movements. And jumping in when some specifics are met. Just looking for an opportunity for some quick gains.

Censof is up today. For once. Hopefully that means 0.25 is solid support (for now).

Why give any thought to calls that are not backed by any facts and figures, and a sound argument. Either Buy or Sell. I would just skip through and move on until I find something that could be useful. Over time, you will know the good ones from the noise. The former ALWAYS come up with thoughtful opinions, and are reasonable. Never "Run for your lives!!!", "Buy! Sure to go up next week!", and nothing else.

In the financial analysis, when buying and selling, always act in OUR individual best interest. This is based on reading and evaluating the facts and figures, and the arguments, the best that we can. Not on someone shouting Buy or Sell. And not solely based on what some investment bank analyst say either, if though he might also accompany that with pretty charts and tables. It's our individual money at stake here where no one else will come to help should we get into trouble. Or us having to share when things go our way. Ultimately we are fully responsible for our decisions, and the ensuing consequences. And no one else.

This is one of the counters that I check on every day...waiting for a sign that it has FINALLY found its bottom. And a hint that it might move in the other direction. When it does, there will be the potential for at least a 30% capital gain within a couple of months. Haven't seen any sign of green shoots appearing yet. So...Keep on checking and waiting.

Entertaining watching these HSI- kakis :-) Now I'm getting itchy fingers.

Heheh! Confident ye. Boleh try sebagai "entertainment". Masuk sikit-sikit...dan cepat lari.

@Probability - That is why I follow posts by people like KC Chong. It's not just the individual posts but also the comments from others. The constructive ones, of course. When people share their knowledge and experience, and thoughtful opinions, everyone benefits. I had been involved on-off in Bursa Malaysia since the 80s. When it comes to information, opinions, constructive arguments and criticisms, we've never had it this good. No guarantees the individual would make a profit over any given time period, but his chances are way better than in previous years. It's thanks to sites like this and bloggers like KC Chong etc.

Interesting. But should also remember EPF sells AND buys counters all the time. That's how they average down or up their portfolio. But transactions by it, PNB and similar giants are worth noting. Must keep watch and see whether it continues to do so in the coming days. Every small investor holding Shell right now has become a speculator, albeit unwillingly for some. Because a significant move either way will depend on news concerning the new controlling shareholder.

XiangSheng81 Please take note that the Shell as listed at Bursa is the refinery business. "SRC", With most of the assets in Port Dickson. And NOT the fuel stations, which I believe is the better business. Like Petronas Dagangan.

This isn't to say SRC is 'not good'. But be aware that it has been making losses the past few years due to various reasons. It used to pay quite good dividends before that.

I had bought a few shares last week and I'm going to admit this - it was based on emotions. The name...this was the attraction. But knowing it was an emotional decision, I was cautious and didn't put in serious money. If it slides to below 2.00... I will be annoyed, but it won't put a serious dent on my portfolio. If it doubles in price, I won't become rich either :-) But hopefully I will be quick to add more shares when it's turning the other way.

Odd, isn't it? Europe, Britain, US, Japan, China all trying to devalue their currencies. And wanting MORE inflation. Most of us in Malaysia want it to be the other way. Except for those holding export-oriented counters, of course :-) But that's essentially it when it comes to currency appreciation or depreciation - "our individual position". Good or Bad is relative. There are critical things which we have zero control over. But we can do something about it in the form of our response; to adapt and try to benefit.

The part about not treating OPINIONS by analysts and so-called experts is worth remembering. Some people confidently declare ringgit, crude oil etc. will be such-and-such "for 2016", and therefore investing decisions must be based on these. These may actually come about. But we must remember they are all only GUESSING. No matter what models they use, with colourful charts lines and all that look convincing, it's a fact that NO ONE knows the future. One or two changes in the variables may lead to a totally different outcome.

Read and think about all of these opinions. But make your own conclusions and decisions, because it's your money at stake here. My general stance and strategy: since we don't know what will happen (in detail), the next best thing to do is to respond...to just follow the trend. And to always hedge when things are so volatile and unclear, as right now. Buy dividend-paying counters when they suffer a fall (and thereby getting higher dividend yield)...AND ALSO put warrant of FBMKLCI-H as insurance just in case. As always, timing is important. But it is indeed possible to get better prices for anything when we aren't hurried while being decisive. No guarantee we will succeed. But at least we have a plan.

#1 OPM - I agree with the general precaution here, about investors/speculators often not taking into full consideration the impact towards their account and capital when things move the other way. At the moment, I'm not using margin. But I feel it should also be considered as an option to be utilised on certain occasions. Despite the risks.

It's a bit like a credit card too - it's not the CC or margin that's the main problem, but the person using it. To me, it's always better when we have more choices. Having a CC or margin shouldn't mean we are using it all the time. When used properly, it can be a very useful tool. The more important thing to consider is in having a proper plan, including prudent capital management and the discipline to execute cut loss at a predetermined point. And also to take profit when the indicators say that the better thing to do.

I believe the next few trading days after CNY will see contra players squaring their positions. Either in mitigating losses or making a small profit. Then the price will stabilise around a fairly tight range. It will be the developments after that which will decide one of two things: it spirals down to a lower level of below 3.00; or it rebounds. Most likely not to 4.94 as before the sale announcement news, but certainly higher than now.

As it is, everyone is just shooting in the dark and speculating. Including me. At this moment, there are a few critical details which aren't known yet. Firstly, on the listing status - would the new controlling shareholder continue with being public-listed or would they privatise? An announcement either way will move the price. This is assuming the purchase is approved by the authorities. It likely will be, but it's not a 100% certainty yet.

If Shell is still public-listed, there's a possibility of a cash call. Many investors don't like rights issues, but in Shell's case, it looks justifiable. Undertaking this will put SRC on a much better financial footing, especially in dealing with the loans and upgrading the facilities. I'd say institutions like EPF and PNB will be supportive.

One other wildcard - the last quarter report. This will be very useful for investors to assess. Shell International and the China company already know, most likely. And the figures might not be encouraging (else Shell would have squeezed for a higher selling price). Let's wait and see how things unfold from after CNY.

"follow the trend" from @sharktank - Thanks for reminding me. Must remember and adhere to this. Significantly better chance of making some money. And minimising loss when it's not possible.

Appreciate very much the comments and insight by @StingRay on the refineries here and nearby. These are a lot more useful than the conjectures and speculations.

This one looks interesting. Went down with most other counters yesterday but has rebounded to above 1.00 again. This is notable, and psychologically important. Going to check on its previous quarterly reports and check the technical charts. But only 2 trading days remaining before CNY. Will have to hold over a long weekend - again - and hope there's no shocking, earth-shaking event when our market is closed.

Actually refineries benefit when crude oil, which is the feedstock, falls. See the quarter and annual reports of refineries in the US and elsewhere where the fuel prices aren't controlled by the government. It doesn't matter too much what price crude oil generally is at. These refineries will set the fuel prices accordingly.

But in Malaysia and many countries, fuel prices are controlled. The pricing mechanism and especially timing of price change had resulted in losses for refineries. To an extent, petrol-station owners have to shoulder this too lately. It's something that needs to be resolved. The decision by Shell to withdraw from refining here should result in the government considering.

@chonghai Thanks for the figures. With this refinery, despite the debts and heavy expenditure to upgrade, one thing is sure - it's one of the critical facilities that we have in the country. Even if it's not government-controlled (which is a good thing). Sure, there are other refineries elsewhere but the output from Port Dickson is a very important link in the supply chain when it comes to fuel.

There is the cost of replacement - what would it take to build something similar from scratch, at a location around the west coast of the peninsula. I don't know, but it's safe to assume "very expensive". Not to mention the hassle of getting the approvals before even the land-clearing could start. So SRC, based on these factors, is a very valuable asset regardless of the current financial issues. And since organisations like EPF and PNB are vested, the government will surely take steps to ensure nothing about SRC's operations and existence are jeopardised. The country's energy security is involved here.

You went out already?? Now I'm in a dilemma - take a quick profit or hold out for more. Maybe I'll stay on and be a "semi-investor". Just a week ago, had thought about buying Shell at 5.00. Now that I've gotten at a significantly lower price, I've become hesitant.

This "local buyer" which Perdasama claims - is it Boustead? The latter was sore about the sale of Esso to San Miguel a few years ago, because it wanted the controlling stake. Justified to an extent because it's in the downstream/retail business with BHP. But there were side deals involved between Exxon and San Miguel. It's not just a matter of "highest price secures". As with SRC. If not, Shell would have called for biddings to secure the highest price.

More details and development will follow, of course. These uncertainties aren't good for INVESTORS. But I'm not one. And neither are hng33 and many/most of us here :-)

@hng33 In that case, I'm going to punt. But not much; just half of what I had allocated. And with a stop-loss in place. Just hope I'll have the discipline to execute should it come to that. Have to take risks if we want to TRY make a profit. As with the telcos and glove makers earlier.

Those other shareholders of EPF, PNB, KWAP etc. - are they at the sidelines or have they been selling some of their shares too? It's critical to know their stance in this. If they are holding on and sticking to the status quo, albeit a new controlling shareholder, the price shouldn't go down too much after this. But that's the problem - we don't know what they plan to do. Will only know after the facts, through the filings to Bursa.

Another thing - I presume the new owner plans to keep SRC listed at Bursa, right? This part is also critical.

The below market price which Shell had agreed to - there is most likely a side deal which it is getting /will get, either directly from this China company, its associates or from the government in China. This kind of horse-trading goes on all the time. Good for Shell and the new buyer, if course. But often not so for the minority shareholders.

The China company looks to be in for the long haul. Most likely it has the financing lined up to make those heavy capital expenditures to upgrade the facilities. Plus to service the loans.

If it's only at 1.90, or just slightly higher, no one will take up the MGO offer, of course. That means the other shareholders will have to put up with what the new owner plans. There might be a rights issue being planned, which isn't a totally bad thing if one is a genuine long-term investor.

Another possibility - SRC might enlist the other refiners to get a better deal for themselves from the government when it comes to prices. Including the timing of announcements. Volatile crude oil prices over the past couple of years had resulted in losses. They had bought at a higher price, but had to sell the refined products lower due to the government pricing mechanism. These refineries have genuine cause to be unhappy. It's possible the government will want to tweak the mechanism.

So that leaves us all - what now? The price now is definitely the cheapest that it had been for...What, more than 15 years? But there's the worry about it getting even lower, of course. Might be a long wait before SRC becomes investor-grade again.

This counter is good for those who want reasonable dividends. Not likely to get a heart attack when it comes to price movements. "Old man/pensioner" type of counter with almost zero excitement. Even if one is more of a trader, I think should also have some lots of REITS to serve as ballast in the portfolio. When some sector is on a clear uptrend, can sell the REITS and use as capital. In the meantime, just wait for the dividends from this one.

Suspended... Until When?

Very mature and reasonable comment by @kahhoeng. This is the kind of attitude which helps investors make the right decisions. And not having a cocksure, overconfident "What could possibly go wrong! Sure to go up" attitude, and most likely receiving some come-uppance. It's always better to be humble and cautious. But decisive after weighing the pros and cons.

This is a very significant development. We had already heard about the China company wanting to buy. But the price which they are paying for the majority stake - looks very low. Why is Shell giving away at this price? It's possible there are side deals here - the China company gets this cheap while Shell is given an attractive deal somewhere.

Let's wait for more details. And see how the market reacts tomorrow. There could be opportunities. Better to keep an open mind.

Foreign investors, like local investors too - they will put in money in markets and counters that they think will at least protect their capital, with reasonable opportunity for appreciation. Yes, they come in and out. Nothing wrong with that. In fact, this kind of behaviour is expected. Everyone wants to protect and try maximise their capital.

There are signs the foreign investors are starting to nibble at Bursa again. Ringgit has recovered somewhat, and many counters are quite attractive. Certainly more attractive than the prices of US counters.

As for Evergreen, it too cannot escape from investors rotating. These export-oriented counters had gone up quite a lot. Many investors are cashing in and looking to ride the next uptrend get sector and companies. Whatever these might be. We the small fish should be alert for opportunities to 'tumpang'.

Generally a very satisfying day for many of us long-suffering oil n gas punters. Let's see whether crude oil's rebound is defended during US trading. As long as it stays above $30, that should be tolerable enough. Still very low but not sliding lower can already be regarded as positive development.

Still way too early to tell but if oil n gas counters have seen the bottom, then it's time to nibble. Rotate from export-oriented counters. Ringgit has recovered some ground. Foreign investors might see their markets as being shaky and may return to Bursa and other emerging markets. We will lay out the red carpet for those fellows :-)

No matter how long someone has been in the market, it's a never-ending process when it comes to learning. The day that someone thinks he knows everything and have seen it all, that's the day he atrophies.

We WILL make mistakes, that's for sure. At the same time, there will be successes too. I think the most important of all is that we learn something from these. Only then can we become better and more consistent.