“Our stock market has witnessed many short-lived bull markets, but very few investors know that we only had one sustained bull market, and that was from 1974 to 1981” (during the time of the “Dragons” / “Tigers”)
But sadly subsequently FDI come to a trickle as M’sia become unattractive due to the 1MDB scandal and many investors shifted to cheaper countries like Vietnam.
“Most of the younger fund managers in the country have never experienced the “real” bull market!” But Teng Boo now is now more optimistic and excited.
Hopefully there will be a revival of FDIs thanks to the US China trade friction, a more business friendly Govt and of course the up-coming Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone.
As with every bull-run, I believe there will be leaders. My hope is YTLPower will be the new leader in the next bull-run.
Before I end, a word of thanks to Dragon, who convinced me to buy (with his impeccable research) when I was shaken by EPF irrationally selling until down below 50sen.

On YTL Comm, YES I believe should be on a better footing going forward. Just take a stake in Digital Nasional Bhd (DNB) and no more wasteful capital expenditure fighting with giant Maxis and DiGiCelcom. Just concentrate on selling your product on a level playing field.
On HSR, the closing date for the submissions of the concept proposals is 15 November 2023 which is less than 2 weeks from now. Hopefully we will get some news on this matter. (It will probably benefit YTL Corp and MCement more than YTLPower}. But a note is that it is more environmentally friendly running on electricity (esp green energy). What a waste compared to hundred of planes taking off, climbing up to cruising altitude, then descending again to land, burning kerosene fossil fuel!
The optimal distance for HSR ranges between 150 to 800 km. If the distance is less than 150, the door-to-door time for HSR will not be competitive with bus/autos. If the distance is above 800 – 1200 km, most travelers will fly. While many countries see HSR projects as potential white elephants, China’s track record shows that high-speed rail can be economically and financially viable
(Martha Lawrence Railway Solutions Group, World Bank)
Some argue it will not be viable (High-speed rail numbers do not make sense by M Shanmugam 31 Jul 2023) But the Govt should also think of the overall spin-offs of having the HSR.

Wessex
Annual report released on 31st Oct … we have now owned Wessex Water for over 20 years, making us the longest single owner of a UK water and sewerage company … track record of responsible ownership … best performers in the sector. Nevertheless, unprecedented criticism from the public, media and politicians about the state of rivers and the impact of storm overflows in the UK over the past year has necessitated a reassessment of investment programmes and priorities throughout the industry. Solving this problem will take many years of sustained effort … etc … Tan Sri Tan Sock Ping
[I notice a change in tone]

As for Wessex’s competitor in England …Analysts say Thames Water's current debt amounts to 80% of the value of the business, making it the most heavily indebted of England and Wales' water companies. Also, interest payments on more than half of Thames' debt rise with inflation, which has been stubbornly high, helping to push the company to the brink. 29 Jun 2023
My take is Wessex should be disposed off for a handsome profit!
20 years is a long time to hold an asset. Sell it off now, plenty of new opportunities nearer home, wait for Thames to go bankrupt and can repeat again.
How much is Wessex worth if it were to be sold now
I want to recap what Datuk Yeoh Seok Hong said …
He cites Wessex Water in the United Kingdom … as a regulated asset … also “inflation protected”. “If inflation goes up by 5% every year, the regulatory capital value will likewise go up by 5%. The asset value will never be depreciated as it will always go up with inflation,” he says.
“For its Wessex Water unit, Yeoh says that its RAB has more than tripled in ringgit value since its acquisition back in 2002 to £3.5bil (RM19.29bil) today. “This is if you take the same 1.6 times regulatory capital value multiple paid to us recently from our ElectraNet and apply it to the Wessex Water asset,” he explains. The Wessex Water currently has an enterprise value of £5.52bil (RM30.43bil) and a net debt value of £2.35bil (RM12.95bil). Yeoh notes that he considers this as a growth asset, which not only provides dividends but also an increase in RAB value through new investments.
But some have already forgotten … YTLPower sold its share of another regulated asset ElectraNet for a whopping RM2.2b profit!
“Enron acquires Wessex Water for US$2.3 billion” (August 31, 1998)
YTL Power Buys Wessex Water cheap from Enron for $776.4 million. Wall Street Journal (March 26, 2002)
So 20 years ago YTLPower bought Wessex from the liquidators of Enron for RM3.6billion (in today’s rate)
How much is it worth now (at say 1.6 times regulatory capital value multiple)

On water supply …
YTL Power acquires 19% stake in Ranhill (for around RM142 million) getting exclusive rights to Johor water supply and Sabah power 50Mw solar plant
On data center
Forbes Asia of August 2023
Francis Yeoh, executive chairman of YTL group of companies, is looking to build on the data center boom as a new engine of growth … YTL built its first data center some 14 years ago, a 5 MW facility in Kuala Lumpur … In 2021, it expanded into Singapore, paying S$200 million ($150 million) for a 50% stake in a second 12.5 MW site.
The game-changer, however, is its construction of a 15-billion-ringgit ($3.3 billion) park in Johor that could eventually deliver as much as 500MW of capacity, co-powered by a solar farm located on an adjoining plot, with the first phase (up to 72MW) expected to go online in early 2024. It will not only be the first solar-powered data center in Malaysia, but one of the largest of its kind in Southeast Asia.
Besting its Southeast Asian peers, Malaysia was the top investment destination for data center investment last year, with 113MW of take-up …. abundance of space—compared with land constraints in Singapore, a regional data center hub—and voracious demand from cloud service giants, such as Amazon Web Services, which recently announced it would fork over $6 billion to build cloud infrastructure in Malaysia over the next 14 years.
Read the rest here https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessicatan/2023/08/13/ytl-head-francis-yeoh-and-his-family-charge-ahead-with-growing-their-data-center-business-to-future-proof-the-68-year-old-infrastructure-conglomerate-will-their-bet-on-solar-powered-parks-pay-off/?sh=26c284fd5390

“Singapore aspires to become Asia's renewable energy hub” … Lawrence Wong … to cut its carbon dioxide emissions to "net zero” by 2050 … country needs to import 4 gigawatts of low-carbon electricity by 2035, equivalent to the output of four nuclear reactors.
M’sia’s NETR (National Energy Transition Roadmap) also have key targets of 70% RE installed capacity, coal free by 2050, targets involving CCUS, hydrogen and bioenergy.
Why Renewable energy? Multinationals eg Amazon, pledge/on a path to powering operations with 100% renewable energy by 2025. So basically if you supply polluting energy, they won’t invest!
YTL Power acquire 664ha Kulai Young estate for RM428.8mil from BPlantation
(In fact they buy the whole of BPlant if the price was right)
So what have they done so far? … Phase 1 of its 72MW data centre and a 500MW solar farm.
Remember 500MW = ½ a nuclear plant (a 1-GW reactor would cost around $5.4 billion to build, excluding financing costs and Fukashima risk)
In the meantime power generation is still mainly gas (about 95%, again mainly from M’sia)
YTL’s PowerSeraya (acquired from Hyflux's Tuaspring for $270m (RM862.31 mil) cash is No2
[As of Jun 2023, Tuas Power Generation held the largest market share (21.3%), followed by YTL PowerSeraya (15.6%) and Senoko Energy (15.4%)]
Up-coming Keppel hydrogen powered plant may take two more years to complete.
Hence an acute projected shortage of power! And a sramble for alternative sources.
Laos at present export 100 MW to S’pore thr Thailand and M’sia
Sarawak Premier Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg … yet to finalise framework … to export up to 1,000 MW (ie 1 GW) of green hydro-power to Singapore via direct undersea cable transmission.
(More mind boggling is the proposal to export solar power from Australia) compared to Kulai Young which is only 60km away from S’pore.
“YTLPower confirms it is jointly developing waste-to-energy plant in Rawang” - August 22, 2023
with KDEB costing RM4.5 billion . That is a lot on money and it is only 58 MW. But I guess they will get paid for the garbage disposal (and the ash produced goes to MCement plant)

Johor-S’pore Special Economic Zone by early 2024 : PM Lee
MOU on Jan 11, 2024. Do investors appreciate the significance?
S’pore has been very good in attracting world class FDI but they know that space and manpower constrains in time will limit their capabilities.
So they plan to expand into Johor. Multinationals on their other hand will be delighted. Mx continues in stable and strong S’pore but investments in cheaper Johor with abundance of manpower.
How does YTL/Power plan to fit into the greater picture?

West Coast Expressway (WCE) cost RM5b, SUKE RM5.3b, EKVE RM1.5b

RAM Ratings has affirmed the AAA(bg)/Stable rating ....... it's a great relief that things are not that bad after all!

RAM Ratings has affirmed the AAA(bg)/Stable rating of EKVE Sdn Bhd's (EKVESB or the Company) Guaranteed Sukuk Murabahah Facility of up to RM1 bil in Nominal Value (the Sukuk). The rating reflects irrevocable and unconditional kafalah guarantees extended by Maybank Islamic Berhad and Bank Pembangunan Malaysia Berhad for tranche 1 and 2 issued under the programme respectively (both rated AAA/Stable/P1). The guarantees enhance the Sukuk's credit profile beyond its standalone position.

Under a 50-year concession agreement with the Government of Malaysia, EKVESB holds the concession for the East Klang Valley Expressway (EKVE or the Expressway), a 36.16 km closed-toll system which starts from Sungai Long in Kajang and ends at Ukay Perdana in Ampang. The Expressway's construction progress remained delayed, standing at 91.82% as of 25 March 2023 (scheduled: 98.56%).

The Project had earlier missed the original September 2019 completion deadline owing to land acquisition issues, which were exacerbated by pandemic-induced lockdowns. The most recent delay stemmed from a lack of funding. EKVESB is awaiting the outcome of its application to the Malaysian Highway Authority for another extension of time. Funding and liquidity concerns will be resolved via additional debt funding procured by both EKVESB and its parent company, Ahmad Zaki Resources Berhad, which can support the Company's construction cost and debt obligations up to December 2024.

https://www.bixmalaysia.com/news-announcements/announcement-details?ID=65734

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessicatan/2023/08/13/ytl-head-francis-yeoh-and-his-family-charge-ahead-with-growing-their-data-center-business-to-future-proof-the-68-year-old-infrastructure-conglomerate-will-their-bet-on-solar-powered-parks-pay-off/?sh=75cfb3d53902
Forbes

Digital banks set to reshape the banking landscape with bite-size loans and deposits
https://themalaysianreserve.com/2023/07/17/digital-banks-set-to-reshape-the-banking-landscape-with-bite-size-loans-and-deposits/
YTL partner SEA in M'sia

Digital bank startups backed by Grab Holdings Ltd. and Sea Ltd. have started accepting larger deposits in Singapore
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/grab-s-digibank-to-accept-bigger-deposits-signaling-cap-raised-1.1947723.amp.html

Teo Seng forecast to sustain solid first-quarter financial performance
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/07/19/teo-seng-forecast-to-sustain-solid-first-quarter-financial-performance#:~:text=Its%20stellar%20financial%20performance%20in,Investment%20Bank%20(HLIB)%20Research.
(LHI's subsidiary Advantage Valuations own 52% of TeoSeng)

Why might a shareholder sign a waiver of preemptive rights? An existing shareholder might be asked to sign a waiver of his preemptive rights in order to satisfy new investor due diligence that shares going to be issued will not be subject to opposition by an existing shareholder exercising his preemptive rights.

Grain prices have not changed much this week, and economists say Russia’s exit from the deal will not have the dire effects seen last year, in part because other parts of the world have had robust harvests and in part because Ukraine has stepped up exports by truck, train and river barge.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/18/world/europe/russia-barrage-odesa-grain-bridge.html

Apakah hubungan antara Kerajaan Negeri Selangor dan Digital Nasional Berhad berkaitan projek 5G di Selangor
5G DAN KONSORTIUM JARINGAN SELANGOR
http://dewan.selangor.gov.my/question/5g-dan-konsortium-jaringan-selangor/

KJS, a Bumiputra Company .. established at the initiative of the Selangor State Government … existing Management Services Agreement with the Selangor State Government … coordinate planning, implementation and maintenance of the telecommunication infrastructure services in Selangor …. process all applications relating to telecommunication infrastructure development.
KJS is a license holder of both the Network Facilities Provider ("NFP") and Network Service Provider ("NSP") License issued by Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission ("MCMC").
In July 2019, KJS has extended its presence to Negeri Sembilan where KJS was appointed by the State of Negeri Sembilan
KJS have built, leased and managed more than 6,000 communication structures nationwide. In addition, through the 5G commercial launch by Digital National Berhad ("DNB"), KJS is working closely with DNB to rollout new telecommunication towers for the deployment of 5G infrastructure and services nationwide.
https://www.konsortiumjaringanselangor.com.my/aboutus

BTW any one got info on how the Digital banking license is working out?
MLFF may be tied up with the digital banking part of YTLPower. Its main competitor is TNG which is owned by CIMB.
Personally I hardly go to the bank itself these days.

Have to work out the profitability of MLFF. Can't wait for main stream analysts to work it out for you.
Looks like MLFF is already in place because some of the concessionaires are already using it.
But YTLPower had been quiet about it, most probably because of non-disclosure agreements.
Same with HSL, they have to sign non-disclosure agreements.
To me, I feel it .... A PLC must make immediate public disclosure of any material information. Information is considered material, if it is expected to have a material effect on the price, value or market activity of any of the PLC’s securities; or the decision of a holder of securities of the PLC or an investor in determining his choice of action.

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2023/03/891368/five-highways-have-open-payment-system-sept-ending-tng-monopoly

https://paultan.org/2023/03/21/multi-lane-free-flow-mlff-toll-system-to-cost-rm3-45-bil-study-to-begin-in-2024-implementation-by-2025/

…..The multi-lane free flow (MLFF) toll collection system, which comes after a very long wait, is expected to be operational nationwide by 2025.
……A source says toll concessionaires are unhappy that the previous government had made a deal with YTL-Konsortium Jaringan Selangor Sdn Bhd (KJS) to be the third-party toll collection company for all toll booths nationwide.
……YTL Power International Bhd owns a 60% stake in KJS via YTL Communications Sdn Bhd.
KJS
……The nationwide MLFF system is estimated to cost about RM3.46bil. There are 33 highways in Malaysia currently.

Anyone got more info on "Hiccups in barrierless toll rollout" .....theStar?
(YTL Power International Bhd owns a 60% stake in KJS via YTL Communications Sdn Bhd.)

https://www.myhsr.com.my/rfi

HSR is officially on.
https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2023/07/11/myhsr-corp-seeks-kl-singapore-high-speed-rail-proposals-from-local-international-firms-and-consortia/79101

c) Input price risks
Escalating raw material and coal prices, higher shipping costs and the US dollar appreciation against the ringgit can affect margins. Coal especially which is imported.
Even this article written on 13 Jan 2023 is already outdated https://www.cemnet.com/News/story/174125/malaysia-cement-pricing-highs.html#:~:text=To%20meet%20some%20way%20in,Malaysia%20on%2018%20November%202022
Check this link …. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
Coal (USD/ton) has drop from 400 to 140 presently.
(However electricity price has gone up because govt stopped subsidy)

b) Revenue / Projected demand for cement.
Budget 2023: Infrastructure projects to be accelerated this year, says PM
NST - February 24, 2023
Eg of current projects include MRT3, ECRL, Penang South Island, JB-S’pore Rapid Transit System, West Coast Expressway, etc
Projects that many not aware of …. “Gov't approves three highway projects in Klang Valley - PJD Link, Putrajaya-Bangi expressway and KL NODE” https://paultan.org/2022/05/24/govt-approves-three-highway-projects-in-klang-valley-pjd-link-putrajaya-bangi-expressway-and-kl-node/
Possible revival of the HSR https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/05/12/both-countries-keen-to-revive-hsr-project

What determines the profit outlook?
a) Cement price
CIMB’s Chong said ….“ASP has risen by 11% over the past six months to RM410-420/mt …..
It is quite hard to find quoted price/chart of bulk cement for M’sia for tracking purpose
eg S’pore’s available … https://www.statista.com/statistics/993391/market-price-bulk-cement-singapore/
The average price of cement (Ordinary Portland) also increased 1.1 per cent to RM22.40/ 50 kilogramme (kg) compared to RM22.15/ 50 kg in February 2023
https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2023/04/07/stats-depts-finds-steel-cement-prices-continue-to-rise-in-march/
10 Mar 2023 — In a statement today, DoSM said the average price of cement (ordinary Portland) rose 1.5 per cent to RM21.99 per 50 kilogrammes (kg) from RM21.
https://www.bernama.com/en/business/news.php?id=2171885
I believe a small increase in asking price can make a lot of difference in profit.
Eg can also be seen in the smaller competitor, HumeInd. Q2 EPS shot up from 0.89s to 5.36s for Q3 reported on 16th May 2023

Presently, MCement has the largest market share of 65%, followed by CIMA 19%, Hume 9%, Tasek 6%
https://www.bondsupermart.com/bsm/article-detail/malayan-cement-s-completes-acquisition-of-ytl-cement-positioning-itself-for-market-leadership-RCMS_262545
The MCB Group is the largest cement producer in the country. It operates four integrated cement plants – in Langkawi, Kanthan, Padang Rengas, and Bukit Sagu. A fifth, the 71-year old plant in Rawang, is undergoing planned refurbishments. The Group also operates four grinding stations, three cement terminal facilities, and two cement depots.
The integration of YTL Cement businesses in Malaysia under MCB has delivered logistical and cost synergies, to better serve customers. The strategic coastal location of MCB’s Langkawi Plant with its direct sea access allows the Group to export clinker and cement competitively, and provide clinker by sea to the two grinding stations in the South.
The MCB Group has 72 ready-mixed concrete batching plants across Peninsular Malaysia and three quarries in Pantai Remis in Perak, Hulu Langat in Selangor and Kota Tinggi in Johor. The Group’s concrete division is the supplier of choice for complex and large-scale infrastructure projects, supplying technically sophisticated products to meet the evolving needs of construction projects in the country.
The concrete division’s network of operations throughout Peninsular Malaysia allowed the Group to fully capitalise on development opportunities, while simultaneously supporting our customers nationwide.
Our aggregates quarries also continued to perform despite challenging conditions. The Kota Tinggi Quarry stepped up its export of quarry products to Singapore and our Pantai Remis Quarry was able to effectively capitalise on the quarry product shortage in the Northern market.

To understand better …
In 2019, YTL bought a 51% stake in Lafarge Malaysia for RM1.63 billion cash, or RM3.75 per share, from AICL (Associated International Cement Ltd) which was on a divestment spree in the region.
Subsequently, a mandatory general offer (MGO) to buyout the remaining shares at RM3.75 per share.
The transaction price of RM3.75 per share was 19% above Lafarge Malaysia’s five-day volume weighted average share price of RM3.15
https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/ytl-cement-completes-acquisition-51-stake-lafarge-malaysia?
Subsequently in 2021, Malayan Cement took over YTL Cement's cement and ready-mixed concrete biz in RM5.16b deal (RM2b cash, shares plus preference shares at RM3.75)
https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1845373/malayan-cement-take-over-ytl-cements-cement-and-ready-mixed-concrete-biz-rm516b-deal
The aim was to consolidate the cement business under a singular umbrella, improving operational efficiencies, leveraging shared expertise, experience and resources.

CIMB maintained its “add” call on Malayan Cement Bhd (MCement) with a higher target price (TP) of RM5.08, from RM3.97, amid stronger recovery in volumes.
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/670352
https://assets.theedgemarkets.com/pics/2023/20230608cement1.png
Quite a big jump for analyst Chong to make, from RM3.97 to RM5.08
(Still figuring out what my own TP should be)
Today’s Price : RM3.22
PE : 37.1 (PE will come down, Q1 EPS was 0.07s, Q2 1.16s, and Q3 4.83s if the quarterly profit trend continues)
NTA : RM4.48

Why is KL Node important?
Because it is the last part of the KLORR.
This means it will connect to the West Coast expressway (GCE/IJM) to the west and NorthSouth Expressway to the north (via LATAR). It will also connect to the old Ipoh Road northwards.
To the East, it connects to the Karak Highway.
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/07/25/new-highway-proposed-to-connect-klang-valleys-east-and-north/
SLT is a wholly-owned subsidiary of AZRB
https://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=1021860
KL Node’s project proponent is Sambungan Lebuhraya Timur Sdn Bhd (SLT), based at Menara AZRB, the same building as EKVE Sdn Bhd, the concessionaire for the East Klang Valley Expressway.

Of interest to AZRB is “KL Node or Kuala Lumpur Northern Dispersal Expressway”
This highway is described as the final link in the grand plan of the KL Outer Ring Road System to connect the KL-Kuala Selangor Expressway (Latar) and East Klang Valley Expressway (EKVE).
A works ministry spokesman stated, “The KL Node project, expected to take off in 2024, will connect the existing alternative highway networks and disperse traffic on the outskirts and reduce the traffic congestion in the capital city.”
This new toll highway will span 24km and will be elevated along 83 percent of the route. The proponent of the KL NODE highway will be Sambungan Lebuhraya Timur Sdn bhd (SLT).
The KL NODE will run from Hulu Kelang to the Melawati and Melati Housing Estates, Gombak, Selayang Heights and end near Kanching Eco Forest Park.
This new toll highway is also projected to pass through areas including hills, residential areas and villages,of course, this is still subject to final approval though so take it with a pinch of salt. The areas included are listed below:
· Entry/exit points of EKVE near Masjid Al Ridhuan, Hulu Kelang;
· Kampung Pasir, Hulu Kelang (MRR2);
· Taman Melawati and Taman Permata (MRR2);
· Kg Klang Gate and Wangsa Melawati (MRR2);
· Desa Melawati, KL East and Taman Melati (MRR2);
· Gombak Integrated Transport Terminal (MRR2);
· Kampung Sungai Chinchin, Gombak;
· Seri Gombak;
· Kampung Sungai Tua;
· Taman Selayang Mutiara;
· Selayang Heights;
· Jalan KL-Ipoh (FR01); and
· Entry/exit points of Latar near the Kanching Eco Forest Park.

There was not much fanfare when it was announced (which is actually good.)
Gov’t approves three highway projects in Klang Valley – PJD Link, Putrajaya-Bangi expressway and KL NODE - 24th May 2022
https://paultan.org/2022/05/24/govt-approves-three-highway-projects-in-klang-valley-pjd-link-putrajaya-bangi-expressway-and-kl-node/

First let’s recap a little about the EKVE (East Klang Valley Expressway)
EKVE is the eastern part of the KLORR (KL Outer Ring Road), the equivalent of the Guthrie Corridor Expy and ELITE in the west.
It is a concession own by AZRB for a period of 50 years!
As reported in the Edge 6th Mar 23, EKVE 91% completed, to be opened in stages in 2024, says the Works Ministry
The southern part of the KLORR is SKVE and SILK which it connects to in a ring.
Analyze this map https://www.ekve.com.my/overall-klorr-map to understand.
EKVE is built on green land hence it was budgeted at only a cost or RM1.5b compared to say SUKE (RM5.7b)

Anyone notice the price of WCE (which is building the West Coast Expressway backed by IJM) has doubled 100% since the beginning of the year?

BTW the 50m shares acquired by Tan Sri Lau constitute a 1.37% share.
No corresponding seller was announce, so I assume it again come from a <5% shareholder.
Who? your guess would be as good as mine!

More worrying are those with less than 5% because they can dispose quietly without informing bursa.
Amanah Saham Bumiputra with 4.9% had held steady since 2019
EPF has 2.8% or 102m shares (on 31 Mar 2023) compared to 3.2% or 116m shares (on 31 Mar 2022)
Hence I figure out the EPF sold 14m shares the past year!!!!!
[Just like they have been selling YTL / YTLPower – quite mind boggling people!]
Continue my research later – mid-night now – good-nite!

So why is LHI price so low from its IPO price of RM1.10
Someone must have been selling, but who?
Checking the 30 largest shareholder (as of 31 Mar 2023) …
Emerging Glory with 52% belonging to the Lau family
Datuk Lau recently bought 20m and 30m on 12 Jun 2023, so you can rule out the Lau family selling.
Maybank Sec for Clarinden Investment is the 2nd largest shareholder at 8.5% (313m shares)
Clarinden/Affinty/Concordant (S’pore based) last sold 2.3m shares back in 17 Mar 2022.
Clarinden/Affinty/Concordant with well over 5% cannot quietly sell because they will have to report.
(Btw, Affinity was Emerging Glory’s partner that took Leong Hup Hlg & Emivest private in 2014)

The profitability of the poultry business depends very much on the cost of chicken feed which in turns depend on the price of wheat and corn.
Checking wheat futures, it is around 690 now compared to 1100 in early 2022. (There is a slight blip upwards since the dam in Ukraine broke.)
Corn is around 640 compared to 820 around early last year.
Of note is that LHI is not a pure play chicken business.
It feedmill business is huge, with revenue of 993m, only slightly lower than its livestock/poultry business of 1199m.
EDITDA for feedmill was RM149m, that is where its main profit come from in Q1.

Most of the Poultry & egg counters made hefty profits in the 1st quarter, but LHI was the exception,
with Q1 net profit dropping to RM22m from RM90m Q4 last year
“EBITDA decreased by 83.0%. The decrease was mainly due to margin compression stemming from the elevated input costs of feed as well as low average selling price of DOC in Indonesia”
True, Indonesia was having a chicken glut in Q1 and they were culling chicken!
It made no sense especially to the small farmers to rear poultry and then sell below their cost.
Supply and demand I believe have played out in Indonesia.
Check out Indonesia Average Wholesale price, Chicken Meat https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indonesia/average-wholesale-price-by-regions-chicken-meat/average-wholesale-price-chicken-meat-bali-denpasar-municipality
The price has shot back up since around May 1st
…..”average selling prices (ASP) in Indonesia have surged significantly over the past month on the back of reduced supply as well as increased demand during the Ramadhan festivity” …. AmInvest
Note that Indonesia is most important market because it contributes to 35% of LHI total revenue (followed by M’sia, Vietnam, S’pore and Philippines.)
I hope to see LHI results improving in Q2.

Is LHI undervalued? Can the more serious investors add to my comments?
Price : 0.495
PE : 8.1
DY : 3.6%
IPO : RM1.10
AmInvest TP : 0.79
RHB-OSK TP : 0.63
M’caSec TP : 0.97

BTW did I hear correctly? LHI said during the recent AGM that they have collected their subsidy up to 31 Dec last year. Q1 subsidy have not yet been collected.

[Good to see dragon328 and observatory in this forum]

Getting some share pricing into perspective and what we may hope to expect in future

In 2013 and 2014, MCement (Lafarge)’s revenue was around RM700m per quarter and pre-tax RM120m per quarter and MCement (Lafarge) share price was around RM10 compared to present RM2.70

MCement Q3 results reported recently, Revenue was RM990m, pre-tax was RM63m
For HumeInd’s revenue was RM288m Profit was RM27m

(As some may know and what I am hoping) if HSR is launched, things are going to look a lot different for MCement.

@pang72. Agree with you about this election thingy.
I started loading up Genting the past few days. Not sure if correct move. Hahaha!

Let's hope for the best. I think I will hold on to my YTL., YTL Power, MCement, Gamuda etc altho my cost is very low.
Only a bit disappointed with Genting and GENM. (Attended Genting AGM this morning)

Hi Dragon328
I may be wrong but I think the govt will have no choice but to go ahead with the HSR, esp if they do not have to fund it.
Q1 had been bad! Oil price down, palm oil down, electronics down, no money for mrt3, etc
Only a few bright sparks left in Bursa, but they all have gone too far ahead of themselves.
Straight line up.
A correction is most welcome.
BTW I like Gamuda too.
Common thing about Gamuda and YTL, these companies do not rely on Govt hand-out.
They thrive both locally and internationally.

Mind boggling! YTL Corp capitalisation at yesterday's price was RM9.92b = USD 2.15b
But Wessex (under YTLPower) alone was worth USD2.3b to Enron in 1998 before Enron collapsed.

What banks are in the Belt and Road Initiative?
The two main institutions of this type – the Export-Import Bank of China (ExIm) and China Development Bank (CDB) – are the largest sources of finance for Silk Road loans. ExIm Bank lent more than $80 billion in total last year, almost three times as much as the Asian Development Bank.
Another possible financing for our HSR may come from Singapore’s Temasek if they deem this project viable.