Hi Dragon328
I may be wrong but I think the govt will have no choice but to go ahead with the HSR, esp if they do not have to fund it.
Q1 had been bad! Oil price down, palm oil down, electronics down, no money for mrt3, etc
Only a few bright sparks left in Bursa, but they all have gone too far ahead of themselves.
Straight line up.
A correction is most welcome.
BTW I like Gamuda too.
Common thing about Gamuda and YTL, these companies do not rely on Govt hand-out.
They thrive both locally and internationally.

Mind boggling! YTL Corp capitalisation at yesterday's price was RM9.92b = USD 2.15b
But Wessex (under YTLPower) alone was worth USD2.3b to Enron in 1998 before Enron collapsed.

What banks are in the Belt and Road Initiative?
The two main institutions of this type – the Export-Import Bank of China (ExIm) and China Development Bank (CDB) – are the largest sources of finance for Silk Road loans. ExIm Bank lent more than $80 billion in total last year, almost three times as much as the Asian Development Bank.
Another possible financing for our HSR may come from Singapore’s Temasek if they deem this project viable.

“Enron acquires Wessex Water for US$2.3 billion” August 31, 1998
“The Enron Corporation said it had agreed to sell Wessex Water, a British utility, to the YTL Corporation, a Malaysian energy and construction company, for $777 million in cash” 26 Mar 2002
If YTL (Power) monetarize it now after 20 years, how much do you expect YTL (Power) to get from this regulated business?

Environmentally, it is less polluting, by replacing the thousands of flights between Penang-KL-S’pore.
The short haul especially KL-S’pore is rather wasteful because not long after the plane take off and reach cruising speed and altitude, it is already getting ready to descent. (Not counting the one hour ride from KL to Sepang and airport clearance time)
Lastly, I have been rather disappointed with Wessex. YTL should consider disposing it? What says you? There are so many exciting things to do here in M’sia and S’pore!

I believe the HSR project may need to be implemented for its multiplier effect on the economy. As long as it is viable and managed by reliable and tested companies (like YTL)
Even better is that the HSR should be extended to from S’pore to Penang.
Along this line will be a new Super Multimedia Corridor with Data centers and a renewable energy grid along the way.

Due to the government’s tight fiscal condition and ballooning national debt - the principle that has been clearly stated by the Malaysian government is that we welcome this project to be resumed but with private funding. S’pore is said to be also keen on the project
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/666637

While we bicker about the viability of KL-Singapore HSR, Indonesia has side-stepped us and build Southeast Asia's first HSR with speed up to 350km/h. The journey time between Jakarta and Bandung will be reduced by 75% from 3 hours to 40 minutes.
Thailand govt is exploring a 670km HSR between its two largest cities (Bangkok - Chiang Mai), on top of the existing 250km HSR under construction (Bangkok - Nakhon Ratchasima)
In Loas, the Boten–Vientiane railway connects the capital Vientiane (south) and the northern town of Boten on the border with Yunnan, China. This connects north to Kunming and the rest of China. The line was officially opened on 3 December 2021.
…. provisions in the south to link with the Bangkok–Nong Khai high-speed railway in Thailand and possibly all the way to Singapore via HSR ….central line on the Kunming–Singapore railway ……part of the Belt and Road Initiative BRI.

Anyone got more info to share on the HSR?
Possible contenders:-
Berjaya Group – China’s Sinohydro Corp
YTL - CRRC Corp Ltd, the world’s largest rolling stock manufacturer
MRCB - in the past partnered with China Communications Company Corp, or CCCC
MMC – understood to be looking for a Japanese partner
China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (CRCC) - sources say is keen to partner with local companies.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/665994

https://ceomorningbrief.theedgemalaysia.com/article/2022/0397/Home/2/624992
Govt removes ceiling price for chicken and eggs, subsidies for bottled cooking oil from July
The govt may have no choice, otherwise artificially suppressing the price will cause many small farmers to go bust, which is in turn bad for for the food security of the country.
LHI being one of the biggest supplier not only in M'sia but in SEA has plenty to gain, more so, as it also supply the chicken-feed

Most of the smaller chicken farm has closed down, including listed LKTM has already exited.
Hopefully the worst is over for LHI.

“Corn futures traded around $7.6 per bushel, the lowest in 2 weeks and retreating from a 1-month high of $7.9 touched on June 16th, as favourable weather and weak demand prospects weighed on prices, temporarily turning attention away from war disruption to Black Sea exports”

Loss of Poultry & livestock of -22m more than made up by 85m profit from Feedmill
Indonsia revenue RM804m, M’sia RM552m, Vietnam RM468m S’pore RM197m
Can’t sell chicken to S’pore, S’pore can easily buy from LHI’s Indonesia subsidiaries.
(Indonesia has a 10-15% surplus supply of chicken)

IPO price RM1.10
Current price 55s
Last Q revenue at >RM2b is the highest ever!

For all civil main contractor packages, bumiputera participation is mandatory
Industry players must form JVs or consortiums with bumiputera construction companies.
All partners in the JV/consortium to declare their ultimate beneficial ownership
The minimum required percentages of effective bumiputera ultimate beneficial ownership are 31% for CMC301 and CMC302, and 20% for CMC303, and the percentage of bumiputera work share at Tier 2 will be at least of the same value as the effective bumiputera ultimate beneficial ownership in respective packages.
MRT Corp’s intention to have capable bumiputera players participating in the MRT3 project and, more importantly, they must be active members of their JV/consortium with their own work scope.
MRT Corp is currently the running open tender process for the MRT3 Circle Line’s four main contract packages with an approach that will transform the construction sector and rejuvenate the economy.
MRT3's construction cost to be around RM31b, and be operational by 2030.
https://ceomorningbrief.theedgemalaysia.com/article/2022/0392/Home/9/623695
After a drought of projects for several years, hopefully AZRB's future going forward will be better
as there are not many Class Bumiputra contractors.
At current price I would think it is ridiculous to sell!

Of course I too am disappointed with LKT for selling his Genting shares.
His COO gave a good review during the AGM, but LKT went on to quietly selling without explanation.
I can only guess he may be buying up Star Cruises ships on the cheap after Genting HK went to zero.
But he should not do it at the expense of Genting minority shareholders.

Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) analysts attended the conference.
In a note on Friday (June 10), Maybank IB analyst Yin Shao Yang said Maybank IB maintained its "buy" call for Genting shares with an unchanged target price of RM5.96.
"It (TauRx) shared more details of its phase 3 trial initial results for its lead drug, HMTM. There will be another year of research but the initial results are positive and commercialisation efforts are ongoing.
"The initial results that TauRx released are interim results. Final results are due in mid-2023.
"Under a 'blue sky' scenario, Genting shares could be worth as much as RM8.84 each," Yin said.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/sharp-drop-genting-bhd-price

Wait for the the full report on Lucidity Phase 3 to come out the next few days

In short, I believe TauRx is going to be a game-changer!

The older trials have already objectively confirmed decrease in Brain atrophy by CT scans.
In Alzheimer's disease, as neurons are injured and die throughout the brain, connections between networks of neurons may break down, and many brain regions begin to shrink. By the final stages of Alzheimer's, this process—called brain atrophy—is widespread, causing significant loss of brain volume

The latest Lucidity phase 3 trial uses 8mg and 16mg dosage after they have found out that this dose level to be the optimal dosage for the drug to work properly and it must be monotherapy meaning used alone. Other Alzheimer’s drugs will interact with it to bring down the efficacy.

“85% reduction in cognitive decline over 65 weeks”. I suspect there will be tremendous pressure for the drug to be fast-tracked for approval. The potential revenue from the drug (20% share) may even exceed those of the casinos, I won’t be surprised!

In an old report of No 26, 2019, there were already there were positive results ….
"In addition to the reduction in brain atrophy, we were surprised to see the large cognitive effects of treatment in the patient group with the higher blood levels of hydromethylthionine at the 8 mg daily dose," he added. "According to scores from the ADAS-cog scale, the effect was around 7.5 points, or three times that seen from current routine Alzheimer's treatments, and would be equivalent to an 85% reduction in cognitive decline over 65 weeks." The Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale–cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) is the standard cognitive scale used to measure neuropsychological changes in Alzheimer's disease clinical trials. A 4-point change is generally considered as indicating a clinically meaningful difference.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-study-by-taurx-shows-a-minimum-dose-of-hydromethylthionine-could-slow-cognitive-decline-and-brain-atrophy-in-mild-to-moderate-alzheimers-disease-300965395.html

On TauRx competitor ….Not even one year has passed after FDA Granted Accelerated Approval for Alzheimer's first drug since 2003, (approved June 7, 2021) Aduheim, has run into trouble!

2022 Apr 23 - Making the Case for the Accelerated Withdrawal of Aducanumab
U.S. Food and Drug Administration-s (FDA) approval of aducanumab (Aduhelm® in the US) as a treatment for mild cognitive impairment of the Alzheimer type and Alzheimer-s disease has raised such major concerns about efficacy, safety, FDA processes, and regulatory capture that Biogen-s license to market this biologic should be immediately withdrawn. Aducanumab has not demonstrated benefit to patients, failed to meet regulatory guidelines, and is likely to cause both individual and societal harm.
[Pls read also Twynstar posting]
So hopefully, TauRx will be fast-tracked to take over Biogen’s drug.

…. AGM… I will now deal through the questions since we received this morning. As expected, the first question is about TauRx and it comes from Chan Yiap Wee. The question reads. If TauRx gets FDA approval what would be expected generated profit? Mmmee. I can’t tell you what the expected generated profit will be, but let me just share with you on the journey ahead. Mmhm, firstly Genting holds 20.3 percent equity interest in TauRx. What we now know is that following the close of the phase 3 clinical trial all of this project called Lucidity. What is clear is that there are strong clinical signal that patients that had received it in the non-placebo arm or the active moiety arm. Is actually…. has actually a halted progression of the disease all have significant slowdown of disease progression. So that basically shows a very strong clinical signal and that announcement has been made by TauRx themselves. Now, the trial that TauRx had conducted themselves, actually span from operations what we call MCI - Mild Cognitive Impairment to all the way to mild, moderate AD patients. So this is a very big market in terms of the potential people that will progress to AD. as well as the existing patients who are suffering from AD. Ahh …but the journey forward is going to be a process laden one which we will need to …. TauRx would need to engage with the authorities like MRHA in the UK for which … very interestingly, TauRx have actually receive what they call an accelerated pathway towards engagement with MRHA. That is also contained in TauRx announcement. Ahmm, there's also a more important FDA approval that is going to be required in America. In TauRx announcement is also noted that a major organization like Eversana has actually thrown its weight and support to TauRx in TauRX progressing to make his application for approval to the FDA. And that's a significant thing as well. But apart from the regulatory approval there will have to be engagement with parties like Medicaid, Medicare in the US; there will be continued engagement with key opinion leaders as well as care-givers group and also of various interest forum and there will be one coming soon where TauRx will be sharing more of its scientific findings which is the AD forum conference in in London next week. What we do know is that ….that around the globe they're 50 to 55 million some AD sufferers ranging from mild to severe. And what we do know is that there is current comparable in terms of pricing and that is the Aduheim, which is if you would know, has been approved by FDA for company that is known as Biogen in the United States. Aduhelm is currently priced at about 4613 US dollars per month treatment. Okay, so we will obviously be looking to benchmark our pricing alongside the Aduhelm product which has been approved by FDA for Biogen and I suppose with a big market like that and a interesting pricing like that I think TauRx would be able to make it work So arm from the Genting perspective, we are all very encouraged. It has been a long journey for all of us but we know look forward strongly on to the next phase for TauRx.

Besides Taurx, Genting has also invested in companies such as DNAe, Cortechs, Celularity, Human Longevity, INex, Synthetic Genomics (fields of oncology & neuro-degeneration)
Re – TauRx …Genting wrote …. “would update shareholders when there is any significant development towards commercialization”
But I am gladly surprised that at the Q&A session … the COO/Executive director was already willing to discuss the monetization of TauRx latest development.

Hydromethylthionine mesylate (HMTM) is taken orally as a tablet hence ease of distribution, storage, prescription and administration.
It is actually a form of Methylene Blue, an old drug that was used for treatment for malaria, methemoglobinemia and other conditions. I reckon it should not be too expensive to manufacture. Its safety profile is also favourable and consistent with previous studies.

But because of heavy investments in time and money in which 90% of drug candidates in clinical trials fail, new block buster drugs do not come cheap. Brand-name approved prescription drugs are sold at extremely high prices in the US because patents allow drugmakers to call the shots when it comes to how much American patients pay for their prescriptions.
It becomes either you take it or you progress until you cannot recognize your husband, wife or children, till finally you die!
Genting invested USD112m since 10 years ago just like a calculated gamble, surely Genting wants returns of its investment many folds!

• How long does it take for the FDA to get it approved so that it is available to all patients?
It may be within months like in the Covid-19 m-RNA vaccine or it may take years.
But I reckon it may be sooner rather than later, because there is up to now no other cure for 50million patients, their condition deteriorating by the day.
many unable to move around on their own, unable to speak or make oneself understood, difficulty eating and swallowing. On the average, a person with Alzheimer's dies within four to eight years after diagnosis.
Alzheimer's is one of the most expensive diseases in the US, costing an estimated $305 billion — including $206 billion in direct costs to Medicare and Medicaid — in 2020.
The effect on family member diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease can be overwhelming.
The UK regulatory authority already granted TauRx an Innovation Passport. This is the first stage which is intended to accelerate development and approval times, facilitating access to new products and indications.

What comes after a Phase 3 clinical trial?
After the Phase III trial, the FDA reviews the clinical trial results to make sure the treatment is safe and effective for people to use. The FDA decides whether to approve the treatment so that it is available for all patients.

Now Phase 3 just completed…. 12 month blinded study [A double-blind clinical trial is one in which both the recipient and the administrator does not know if the recipient is receiving the actual drug] …. tested in 598 people with Alzheimer’s……
“participants receiving HMTM decline at a rate substantially less than is typical in Alzheimer’s” (using very modest wordings)
They will tell more on June 9, 2022 at the 35th Global Conference of Alzheimer's Disease International.

The Phase 2 trial …. 321 patients with an earlier version of the drug showed a 90% reduction in the rate of disease progression over two years.
The result was supported by functional brain imaging.
(Imaging identified the regions within the brain known to be affected by Alzheimer’s neuropathology that were protected by the drug)
…. “reduce clinical decline and brain atrophy by about half over 12 months”
Phase 2 results were already highly significant!

Foreign funds have been snapping up Genting like crazy after news broke out while many retailers were still in the blank!
Last week foreign funds net buy …… Mon -36m, Tues -163m, Wed +2m, Thu +43m, Fri +71m
This week ….. Monday +122m, Tues +321m, Wed +111m

There's currently no cure for Alzheimer's disease. But there is medicine available that can temporarily reduce the symptoms.
A break through has tremendous implications because if an expensive drug (if proven) has to be taken over long term x 50million people, knowing how expensive medicines are in the US .....

Old article>>>On the investments made thus far, Corr says TauRx has so far been “very successful in securing significant investment of about US$700 million [RM2.9 billion] to fund its research”.

He notes: “Our strong fundraising track record reflects the credibility of our research and the market opportunity. Investment has come from a mix of private investors, based largely in Southeast Asia, as well as funds from large corporate investors such as Genting.”
It has been almost two decades since November 2002 that Genting announced a total investment of US$111.8 million in the pharmaceutical company in exchange for a 20% stake. Singapore’s sovereign state fund Temasek is also a substantial shareholder of TauRx. Gaming analysts say Genting had invested a total of about US$120 million in TauRx as at 2016.

Announces Move Toward Regulatory Submission Following Initial Data From LUCIDITY Trial
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/05/31/2453751/0/en/Dundee-Corporation-Portfolio-Holding-TauRx-Pharmaceuticals-Ltd-Announces-Move-Toward-Regulatory-Submission-Following-Initial-Data-From-LUCIDITY-Trial.html

Aberdeen, UK and Singapore, May 31, 2022 - released yesterday!

“The output indicates that participants receiving HMTM *decline at a rate substantially less than is typical* in
Alzheimer’s based on published research
https://ts-assets.ams3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/mg/tx/pdfs/Lucidity-Data-Announcement.31May2022.for-website.pdf
With an estimated 50 million people worldwide with Alzheimer’s

What Are The Benefits Of Digital Banking? A digital banking license has the ability to conduct all banking businesses like traditional banks. This includes opening an account, making deposits and payments, applying for loans or debit and credit cards, etc
Singapore to have 4 digital banks with one of them being Sea, with a digital full bank licences.
YTL Digital Capital Sdn. Bhd. (“YTL Digital Capital”) was incorporated as a wholly-owned subsidiary of the YTL Power on 7 May 2021, now together with SEA has a Digital Banking Licence in M’sia (announced by Bank Negara today)
So now it means that both YTLPower and partner SEA has both full digital banking licence in M’sia and S’pore. There may be synergy in them. SEA also owns e-Commerce Shopee.
Notice Boost Holdings/ Axiata, Grab/Singtel etc groups have telco in them. So YTLPower also have YES telco. Digital banking, telecommunications, e-Commerce make powerful combinations, adding to Data Centers, Green energy, etc which YTLPower is diving into.

Read more ....
https://ytldatacenters.com/about/
https://ytldatacenters.com/locations/malaysia/

The YTL Green Data Centre will be connected by dark fibre – which offers direct, low latency network connections – to hyperscalers and enterprise clients in Singapore and other parts of Malaysia. If things turn out good, who knows, Iskandar-Singapore may became the new Silicon Valley/Data centre of Asia or maybe the new Shenzhen of Hong Kong. Even better connect right up to Penang, the global electronics manufacturing, Silicon Valley of the East.

Initially I thought 664 hectare (1640 acres) Kulai Young estate was just any other solar farm / or for export to S’pore. I was wrong! What they are doing is to build a Green Data Centre Park.
275 acres of the 1640 acres is dedicated toward data center development, YTL Green Data Center Park…. Only 275 acres out of 1640 acres. What they plan for the rest of 1640 acres yet to be told.
Out of 500MW planned, 72MW of capacity has already commenced on site for other hyperscale customers.
But getting a big anchor like GDS to co-develop 168MW capacity (across 8 individual data center facilities, entering service in 2024) is really something.
That means 72+168MW = 245MW out of 500MW is already taken up in such a short span of time. Soon the whole 500MW will be taken up.

YTL Announces Third Facility
The data centre campus will occupy 275 acres (111 hectares) or roughly 14 percent of a 2,000 acre industrial site in the Iskandar economic zone. A spokesperson from YTL Power said that construction on the 72 megawatt initial phase is already underway with the facility slated to open in 2024. The entire 500 megawatt project is expected to be completed within the next 8 to 10 years.

https://www.ytlpowerinternational.com/media_centre/ytlpi.asp?catName=media_centre&newsID=4892
YTL Power International Berhad ("YTL Power"), through its subsidiary YTL Data Center Holdings Pte. Ltd. ("YTL DC") today announced the development of a 500MW data center campus in Johor, the first data center park in Malaysia to be powered by renewable solar energy.

Located 30km from Singapore in the Iskandar region of Johor, the YTL Green Data Center Park will offer diversity in power and connectivity on a large industrial site, of which 275 acres will be dedicated towards data center development. This provides excellent opportunities for customers seeking green data centers to meet their needs.

Work has started on the first 72MW data center, expected to be in service by Q1 2024, with more in the pipeline

https://www.ytlpowerinternational.com/media_centre/ytlpi.asp?catName=media_centre&newsID=4892
YTL Power International Berhad ("YTL Power"), through its subsidiary YTL Data Center Holdings Pte. Ltd. ("YTL DC") today announced the development of a 500MW data center campus in Johor, the first data center park in Malaysia to be powered by renewable solar energy.

Located 30km from Singapore in the Iskandar region of Johor, the YTL Green Data Center Park will offer diversity in power and connectivity on a large industrial site, of which 275 acres will be dedicated towards data center development. This provides excellent opportunities for customers seeking green data centers to meet their needs.

Work has started on the first 72MW data center, expected to be in service by Q1 2024, with more in the pipeline

Thank you dragon328 for your in-depth research.

The other thing I don't like with many high flying stocks they like to trick you with bonus issues.
YTLPower do not do such things, just like Warren Buffet's Berkshire. What you see is what you get over the years!

YTLPower is definitely not a SERBADK! What can go wrong with its many regulated business? Its dividend yield (price at 74.5s today) is 6.04%. What kind of investment pay you >6% yield? In a worse case scenario, just sit and collect dividends, better than bank interest.
The only risk I can think of is EPF selling for crumps! Actually, there is no need for the 10K withdrawal from EPF. There is no more lock-down, just go out and get a job man! This 10K is just to make good feeling because elections are coming!

Now back to YTL Power … What are the risks for this stock?
Its all-time peak was RM3.88 back in 2007. Its low was 45s on 17th Mar 2020 at the panic of the pandemic when everyone was talking about a World Depression. If for some reason if it falls back to 45s, you lose 40%, But if it goes back to RM3.88, you gain 520%
Furthermore 26s cash proceeds from the disposal of 33.5% ElectraNet means that you are paying only 48.5s for the rest of YTLPower’s assets. This 26s gain will come into the accounts in the coming quarter/s and the PE ratio of YTLPower will be in single digits.

It always fails to amaze me how analysts value stocks. I find them incredibly scary people!
An example is what Citibank wrote ….. August 14, 2020 …. our bull-case valuation of Top Glove is RM77.60,” ….. a target price (TP) of RM48.10 and "buy" rating for the glove manufacturer.
So in hind-sight how did Citi’s analysis pan out? Today’s price is RM1.73, so even if you x3 correcting for the 2:1 bonus issue 1.73 x 3 = RM5.19, you still have lost a tremendous amount of your investment.
Another example is 2-3 days ago …. Bill Ackman ditched his stake in Netflix Inc. after losing more than $430 million on his investment. The stock tumbled >30% in just one day. (The stock had gain >100% since the pandemic)
So what can you learn from this …. don’t buy stocks that has been inflated, despite what your analyst / smart people tell you. Best to analyse and think for yourself!