To OTB,
Can you comment on what is happening on Bursa.
Massive sudden foreign sell of -161m, -199m, and -318m the past three sessions

What is the effect of MSCI Malaysia Index adding YTL?


ChatGPT
The effect of MSCI Malaysia Index adding a particular stock like YTL would depend on various factors including the weight of the stock within the index, the trading volume of the stock, and the overall market sentiment towards the stock and the Malaysian market.

Here are some potential effects:

Increased demand for YTL shares: Inclusion in the MSCI Malaysia Index often leads to increased demand for the stock from investors who track or benchmark their portfolios to the index. This increased demand could drive up the price of YTL shares.

Higher trading volume: With increased investor interest, the trading volume of YTL shares is likely to increase, which could lead to greater liquidity in the stock.

Positive sentiment: Inclusion in a major index like MSCI Malaysia could be interpreted as a positive signal by investors, indicating confidence in the company's financial health and growth prospects. This positive sentiment could further support the stock price.

Portfolio adjustments: Fund managers and institutional investors who track the MSCI Malaysia Index may need to adjust their portfolios to reflect the addition of YTL. This could involve buying YTL shares, which again would contribute to increased demand and potentially higher prices.

Market impact: The addition of YTL to the MSCI Malaysia Index could have broader implications for the Malaysian stock market as a whole, as it may influence investor perceptions of the market's attractiveness and lead to increased attention from foreign investors.

Overall, the effect of MSCI Malaysia Index adding YTL would likely be positive for the stock in the short term, although the long-term performance would depend on various company-specific and market-related factors.

Never seen such crazy volume at 4.49pm. Amazing!!!

Correction.... the common folks in S'pore (who don't have cars) also have a choice of taking the bus to get to KL,
But the journey may take > 5 hours one way, including the hassle of get down, queue to get their passports chopped. Most likely day trips are out of the question.
Speed is essence!

Thank you Dragon for concurring with me.
What is Singapore's population 2023? Answer 5.9 million
Only one-third of S'pore resident households own cars – meaning for 3.9 million S’poreans, flying is the only way if they want to come to KL (and other places like Genting)
They have no choice so their favourite leisure is of course making day trips to JB
S’pore’s GDP is >USD400b and “private consumption expenditure contributes the largest share to GDP” (Singapore Department of Statistics)
So imagine the chunk of S’pore GDP flowing into KL and M’sia with the HSR
The S’pore govt has so far been very supportive of the HSR.
The quality of life and mental health for S’poreans will definitely improve with the HSR.
For Malaysian, forget about going there, unless you rich or go for business.

https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2024/02/20/ram-affirms-ytl-corps-aa1-rating-reflecting-its-solid-business-profile/
RAM Affirms YTL Corp’s AA1 Rating, Reflecting Its Solid Business Profile

Meanwhile, Malaysian power producer, YTL Power was reportedly partnering with U.S. tech giant Nvidia to develop an artificial intelligence infrastructure in the country. The AI development project is expected to come in at a US$4.3 billion (or RM20 billion) investment deal and is expected to be operational by mid-2024, according to Reuters.
https://www.marketing-interactive.com/malaysia-digital-economy-rm225-billion-approved-investments

HSR will give economy boost
https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/02/1012685/hsr-will-give-economy-boost
New King Could Boost Johor’s GDP By 3% By 2029
https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2024/02/13/new-king-could-boost-johors-gdp-by-3-by-2029/

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/12/03/malaysia-records-26-million-tourist-arrivals-from-jan-1-to-nov-15-says-ministry#:~:text=According%20to%20statistics%20released%2C%20the,rest%20are%20from%20other%20countries.
“Singaporeans topped the list of 26 million tourist arrivals to Malaysia, according to the Immigration Department’s latest statistics recorded from Jan 1 to Nov 15, 2023”
…. most number of tourists were from Singapore at 12,645,364 tourists meaning on average 39,640 S’pore tourist a day (corrected for Nov15)
Most of them I believe are day trippers going over to Johore and returning back in S’pore the same day, despite having to brave the several hours jam at the causeway.
“For an HSR line to be viable … the passenger density per annum should ideally be more than 40 million people per annum.31 Jul 2023” = 109,589 passengers a day
So if S’pore tourist alone if they travel to KL instead of JB, you already have 1/3 to 1/2 the required number for our HSR to be viable!
“International tourist arrivals to Singapore more than doubled in 2023, surging to 13.6 million” What if some of the big spenders international tourist decide to hop over to KL?
And I am not talking about Malaysians going to S’pore because our MYR is so small, but for S’poreans and international tourist the fare should not be a problem.
That is just tourism. But the bigger picture is the social, economic/business (plus environmental) spin-off of the project.

“YTL is an extraordinary company, Malaysia is an important hub for Southeast Asia computing infrastructure, which requires access to land, facilities and power, and YTL could play a great role in that,” he told Reuters at a news conference.

About US$2.7 billion (RM12.42 billion) of the company’s revenues, or 15 per cent , in the quarter that ended in October came from Singapore, a 401 per cent jump from the same period last year. Singapore hosts many of the Asian headquarters of US and Chinese technology giants, and more than 1,100 AI startups.
15% of Nvidia's revenue from S'pore>
Due to land, manpower and power constrains, the only way is for S'pore to expand into the Johor-S'pore special economic zone (and Kulai is part of it)

"high reserve margins which now are at above 40%"
Such facilities are deemed high-value customers for TNB as they consume high volumes of electricity throughout the year, and thus serve to reduce the country's currently high reserve margins which now are at above 40%, not to mention help alleviate pressure on electricity tariffs by optimising Malaysia's generation assets better, the research house noted.
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.tnb.com.my/assets/newsclip/08092023a.pdf

I checked out Wessex accounts from 2007 till 2023.
£89m (2007) £95m (2008) £93m (2009) £112m (2010) £115m (2011) £93m (2012) £107m (2013) £169m (2014) £140m (2015) £164m (2016) £146m (2017) £133m (2018) £110m (2019) £66m (2020) £67m (2021) £-44 (2022) £-11m (2023)
Hi Dragon, Need some input. Can you please explain why Wessex’s profits rose to its highest at £169m in 2014, then dropped until £-44 in 2022 and £-11m 2023. What actually happened?
You have now projected it to recover to £100m profit. 👍 What are your reasons for this anticipated recovery? Thanks in advance.

Important to see who did the heavy selling yesterday
Daily Trading Participation (Bursa)
As at 05 February 2024
Foreign bought net 2m
Local institution bought net 58m
Local retailers sold 60m
Local retailers were the culprit yesterday.
Maybe they need CNY money 😀

Tan Sri in one of his interviews said the HSR project will be very profitable.
I have no doubt on his acumen and diligence in massive projects with medium to long term frame.
It is obvious YTL Constr will benefit, its Cement division extremely, its Hotels and Properties too, all will benefit.

Industry insiders say Malaysia and Thailand stand to benefit greatly from a KL-Bangkok HSR (Jan 8th, 2024)
….rapid growth of bilateral economic integration … cross-border production chains …
key driver … harness economic integration … Asean region and China ….
fundamentally accelerate the country's economic recovery … multitude of economic, social, and environmental benefits
Due to the positive correlation and interdependence between infrastructure investments and economic multipliers, large infrastructure projects are widely acknowledged as being essential to a country's economic growth
Greener environment, lower carbon footprint compared to taking a plane. ESG
HSR can increase tourism arrivals. Imagine S’poreans taking a 90 minutes journey in the morning, go shopping in Pavillion, have a good meal, return to S’pore in the evening, without the hassle of a few hour jam at the causeway.

For businesses, signing of MOU on the special economic zone (SEZ) with S’pore is a huge thing. No more holding back S’pore’s future on limited land and manpower.
With the HSR it actually indirectly extends all the way to KL.
Malaysia and Singapore are looking into implementing passport-free QR code clearance at their land checkpoints to support the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ).
I won’t be surprise with biometrics, facial recognition, AI, etc Malaysians and S’poreans may one day not need passports to travel, (just like once in the old days)

Not many Public listed companies can put in 20% equity for such a project and most financial institutions are wary, hence maybe either China jv partners can put in equity or provide loans at very low interest rates
Since there appear to be some urgency on China’s part in getting the Belt and Road Initiative rolling by 2027 or 2028.
The Kuala Lumpur-Singapore HSR is a key link (in future) to connect five countries in the region, namely, China, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore

China urges faster progress in billion-dollar railway link to Thailand
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/698945?utm_source=Newswav&utm_medium=Website
China and Thailand must accelerate the construction of a planned high-speed railway linking the countries, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Monday, pushing an ambitious Southeast Asian network

“The Kuala Lumpur to Singapore Changi route emerged as the busiest international airline route, accommodating 4.9 million seats, according to OAG's annual assessment of the world's busiest flight routes between January and December 2023”
On average, there are about six million people flying between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore annually.
Building HSR is so expensive that even the heaviest routes in the world are loss making (if you go by fare x number)
China has built and put into operation more high-speed connections than the rest of the world over the last 15 years with 25,000km of dedicated HSR lines across the country. But they are all heavily subsidized by the govt.
So you can say ?no where in the world are rail projects such as HSR “fully private-sector-funded project” I believe “fully private-sector-funded” was a political gimmick!
In theStar Wednesday,12 Jul 2023
PUTRAJAYA: A Request For Information (RFI) exercise is being carried out to check the feasibility of implementing a public-private partnership (PPP) model for the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High-Speed Rail (KL-S'pore HSR) project, says Anthony Loke.
Hence it should be PPP and not “fully private-sector-funded” right?

On the HSR alignment, you can check https://www.myhsr.com.my/kl-sg-hsr/project-overview
which almost the most as that in concept stage.
Putrajaya extends ERL concession period by 30 years after seven-year negotiations, says Loke _ CEO Morning Brief https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/698324
This of course is the Express rail connecting the airport KLIA to KL Sentral.
If you look carefully it passes near Bandar Malaysia before going to KL Sentral
I believe YTL may be planning to use some of the ERL tract for the elevated HSR to cut land cost.
So that explains why after seven years of negotiations, the govt suddenly agree to extend ERL concession with YTL by 30 years.
Sultan Ibrahim mahu HSR dihidupkan semula, lalu Forest City
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/689549
Forest City of Country Garden may be reserve land to create space for KL-Singapore HSR
If you look at the map carefully, the HSR alignment near S’pore may deviate slightly to the left instead of along the second-link.
If free land is provided especially if BLand gets the southern portion of the HSR project (reversal from previously) then the cost can come down further.
Also Spore may or may not use the Jurong Country Club and Raffles Country Club land, as S’pore has already been compensated.

Why are our prices so inflated?
On 17 October 2017, the Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak announced that the land acquisition process has begun in Malaysia for the project and also the station designs.
So at least from 2017, all commercial development on lands earmarked for the HSR has already been frozen, ie they will not get any DO (development order)
On raw materials, you can check the price of steel rebar over the years, same with cement when our MCement was making a loss the past several years due to a slump in cement price, so much so that Lafarge throw in the towel.

“A 2019 World Bank report on HSRs in China stated that the construction cost in that country was on average between US$17 million and US$21 million per km. Based on an exchange rate of RM4.50 to the US dollar, the maximum cost of the KL-Singapore HSR should be about RM33 billion”
“The 142km Jakarta-Bandung HSR construction ended in 2023 after many delays with a total cost of US$7.4 billion. That works out to about RM235 million per km.”
Taking Jakarta-Bandung HSR figures including cost overrun, our HSR should work out to RM82b
Spain has most extensive high-speed rail network in Europe (9 Nov 2023)
Spain builds high-speed trains at an average cost per kilometer of €17.7m
So €17.7m x 5.13 x 350 = RM31b

Let’s discuss Cost consideration
2006 - YTL Corporation … speed of 250 km/h (155 mph) … travel time 99 minutes
2008 - the Malaysian government halted the project citing high-costs of over *RM8 billion*
In retrospect, why did the Govt disallow it when it was only RM8 billion?
Subsequently estimate cost went up tom RM72 billion (US$17.4 billion)
In 2023 July - MyHSR Corp says the project was expected to cost RM100 billion ($21 billion)
That means (RM100b - RM8b = RM92b) div by RM8b, div by 15 years = 76%
It means the cost inflated a whopping 76% every year for 15 years since the govt halted it in 2008.
When the average inflation rate was 3.57% per year”

Timeline - The proposed HSR line is 350 km long and is expected to reduce travel time between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore to 90 minutes. It would start from Bandar Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur and connect to other cities such as Malacca and Seremban along the west coast en route to Jurong East in Singapore
Late 1990s - A high-speed rail link between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore was proposed in the late 1990s but due to high costs, the proposal was shelved
2006 - YTL Corporation, operator of the Express Rail Link revived the proposal, with a projected speed of 250 km/h (155 mph). This was expected to trim travel time between the two cities to 99 minutes
2008 - the Malaysian government halted the project citing high-costs of over RM8 billion
September 2010 - It was first proposed by then Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak .
19 February 2013 - The Prime Ministers of Malaysia and Singapore agreed to proceed with the HSR project, proposal would be finalised by end of 2014 with a targeted completion date of 2020
6 February 2015 - Singapore had announced Jurong East as the final location for the high-speed rail terminus
2015 - the Malaysian government established MyHSR Corp to facilitate developing and implementing high-speed rail projects
19 July 2016 - Singapore and Malaysia signed a Memorandum of Understanding
Details including a 25-metre-high bridge link near the Malaysia–Singapore Second Link
The Government of Singapore required Raffles Country Club to vacate its plot as the site offers the "most suitable location" to run the HSR tracks after the bridge crossing and to place the tunnel portal leading to the tunnels that would take the HSR to the Jurong East terminus
17 October 2017 - the Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak announced that the land acquisition process has begun in Malaysia for the project and also the station designs
5 April 2018 - MyHSR Corp announced the results of the selection process for the design and construction for the Malaysian portion of the project:
A consortium of Malaysian Resources and Gamuda would build the northern part,
A consortium of Syarikat Pembenaan Yeoh Tiong Lay and TH Properties the southern part.
The tender process for the Singapore tunnel sections was started in April 2018 with the start of construction expected in 2019
May 2018 - Mahathir confirmed that Malaysia would scrap the project, citing its high construction costs
5 September 2018 - postpone until end-May 2020
31 May - Singapore had agreed to the suspension until 31 December 2020
1 January 2021 - the prime ministers of Malaysia and Singapore announced to terminate the HSR project
At the point of termination, Singapore had incurred a cost of at least S$270 million.
29 March 2021 - Malaysia compensated Singapore S$102.8 million (US$75.36 million), with the settlement representing the complete termination of the project and bilateral agreement
Following Pakatan Harapan chairman Anwar Ibrahim's appointment as prime minister of Malaysia after the 2022 general elections, Singaporeans have again reportedly called for the Anwar administration to revive the project
11 July 2023 - MyHSR Corp called for proposals from the private sector and firms to be submitted for the development of the HSR project. The project was expected to cost 100 billion ringgit ($21 billion)
15 January 2024 - MyHSR Corp received seven proposals from private bidding groups. Bid selection and further negotiations with the Singapore government were expected to be undertaken in the second half of 2024
Source - Wikipedia

Royalty-linked stocks jump on HSR bid report
KUALA LUMPUR: Berjaya Land, IJM and MRCB shares on Bursa Malaysia went up in early session today on an announcement of a consortium with KTMB
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/01/29/berjaya-land-mrcb-ijm-shares-up-on-kl-singapore-hsr-bidding-exercise
SO if YTL is awarded the HSR project (or part of it), is it good or bad?
I think as shareholders, we should analyse it in advance of any announcement.
(Hopefully Dragon et al can share their opinion on this)
Quite a number of the economists and analysts are against the HSR and they have their reasons.

China urges faster progress in railway link to Thailand
China and Thailand must accelerate the construction of a planned high-speed railway linking the countries, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said.
Wang did not spell out a time-frame, but the Thai government currently expects the 873km section in Thailand to be up and running in 2028.
Under the Belt and Road initiative, a global trade and infrastructure plan championed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Beijing has pushed for a high-speed railway network that links the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming to as far south as Singapore. theStar Jan30

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/01/25/ytl-power-data-centre-underappreciated
YTL Power data centre ‘underappreciated’

https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2024/01/29/ytls-ai-collaboration-with-nvidia-could-generate-usd130-million-rhb-ib/
YTL’s AI Collaboration With Nvidia Could Generate USD130 Million: RHB IB

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/01/1007110/rhb-research-raises-ytl-powers-earnings-forecasts-target-price
RHB research has a "Buy" call on YTL Power, with a higher target price of RM4.69 from RM2.95 previously.

I think YTL, YTLP & MCement has gone up too fast and too furiously in a short time.
Need to consolidate for a while, which a good thing!
Stalebull liquidation is always good as it weeds out all weak holders!
So far I have not sold a single share since 60s
Still looking forward to a CNY rally (much missed for a long time ｡^‿^｡

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/passport-free-clearance-being-explored-as-part-of-plans-for-johor-s-pore-special-economic-zone
Passport-free clearance being explored as part of plans for Johor-S’pore Special Economic Zone

Iskandar Malaysia ; Johor Bahru District · Kulai District · Pontian District · Kota Tinggi District
Johor state government proposing Iskandar Malaysia be designated special economic zone with Singapore
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/pm-lee-hsien-loong-johor-visit-special-economic-zone-rts-link-ceremony-anwar-4036801

I sense something big is happening in the YTL group of companies in the coming days.
Congratulations to all who held till now.
In the meantime, Dragon, OTB etc, if you all have any hidden gem, pls share.
nice to have another gem like YTL in its early days. Cheers!

Sorry that's for YTL Corp.
For YTLPower it is 8.1b shares, so RM20b div by 8.1b = RM2.40
Current price of YTLPower is RM2.27

During the AGM, was it stated the RAB of Wessex is RM20b (Can’t remember 4.1b pound or USD)
So Wessex alone (not including Seraya, Attarat, etc) is worth RM20b; div by 11b shares = RM1.80 a share
Current price of YTL Power is only RM1.54 (very undervalued to my thinking)
My take is still that Wessex should dispose off and the RM20b monetarised, especially with the exchange rate against the USD now at its lowest. (Also YTL should do some national service for the country)
Another point is I worry about upcoming Capital Tax Gains on private companies.
He mentioned when acquired RAB was around 1b but now it is 4.1b, so the capital tax if imposed will be on 3.1b a tremendous huge figure.
With regards to Attarat in Jordan, Datuk Hong mentioned something like it is going at full capacity (so Dragon was right on what is happening in Jordan). Also if I heard correctly just now at the YTL agm, the authorities have paid up all dues in full.
I clearly heard Tan Sri say the HSR is very viable and MCement already is doing very well, not even accounting for HSR. So the prospects looks good. Any one going to post questions afterwards during the MCement agm?
So I still prefer that Wessex be sold off (like Electranet) and with RM20b cash and co-financed by China, the YTL group will definitely be the top pick for the HSR project.

The Disposal will result in an estimated gain on disposal of RM192.0 million for the financial year ending 30 June 2024, after taking into consideration the net liabilities of PTIGP.

It is understandable why TS Francis Yeoh kept mum. All the participants had to sign non disclosure agreements.
This project is enormous maybe > USD20b. Very few Malaysian companies (even with a China partner) is technically and financially capable of delivering such a huge project.

https://paultan.org/2023/11/09/ipoh-kl-high-speed-rail-being-reviewed-project-would-cut-travel-time-between-two-cities-to-40-minutes/
While the move to reactivate the KL-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) continues, another such project might overtake its development and become the first HSR route in the country, Sin Chew Daily reports.

https://focusmalaysia.my/ipoh-kl-high-speed-likely-to-supersede-kl-singapore-hsr-shorten-travelling-time-to-40-mins/

https://paultan.org/2023/11/09/ipoh-kl-high-speed-rail-being-reviewed-project-would-cut-travel-time-between-two-cities-to-40-minutes/
While the move to reactivate the KL-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) continues, another such project might overtake its development and become the first HSR route in the country, Sin Chew Daily reports.

This stock is a laggard compared to YTL and YTLPower.
Hope to see more action soon

I better clarify …
PowerSeraya was acquired by YTL Power back in 2008 for an enterprise value of S$3.8 billion from Temasek …. 3,100 MWs …PowerSeraya … third and final of Temasek’s power generation companies to be sold under its divestment plan announced in July 2007… to help develop a competitive power generation market in Singapore
It was (then) the second largest power generation company in Singapore, providing over 27% of the nation’s electricity needs … operates Pulau Seraya Power Station and Jurong Power Station.
https://www.temasek.com.sg/en/news-and-resources/news-room/news/2008/temasek-sells-powerseraya-to-ytl-power-international-for-an-ente
YTL Power International completes Tuaspring Power Station acquisition for RM862.31 mil
theedgemarkets.com 01 Jun 2022 … 396MW combined cycle gas turbine power plant in Singapore.
“The Tuaspring plant is one of the most technologically advanced assets on Singapore’s power generation grid. The power station was commissioned in 2016 and was originally constructed as part of a desalination project
So PowerSeraya was acquired in 2008 and Tuaspring only recently in 2022

“Our stock market has witnessed many short-lived bull markets, but very few investors know that we only had one sustained bull market, and that was from 1974 to 1981” (during the time of the “Dragons” / “Tigers”)
But sadly subsequently FDI come to a trickle as M’sia become unattractive due to the 1MDB scandal and many investors shifted to cheaper countries like Vietnam.
“Most of the younger fund managers in the country have never experienced the “real” bull market!” But Teng Boo now is now more optimistic and excited.
Hopefully there will be a revival of FDIs thanks to the US China trade friction, a more business friendly Govt and of course the up-coming Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone.
As with every bull-run, I believe there will be leaders. My hope is YTLPower will be the new leader in the next bull-run.
Before I end, a word of thanks to Dragon, who convinced me to buy (with his impeccable research) when I was shaken by EPF irrationally selling until down below 50sen.

On YTL Comm, YES I believe should be on a better footing going forward. Just take a stake in Digital Nasional Bhd (DNB) and no more wasteful capital expenditure fighting with giant Maxis and DiGiCelcom. Just concentrate on selling your product on a level playing field.
On HSR, the closing date for the submissions of the concept proposals is 15 November 2023 which is less than 2 weeks from now. Hopefully we will get some news on this matter. (It will probably benefit YTL Corp and MCement more than YTLPower}. But a note is that it is more environmentally friendly running on electricity (esp green energy). What a waste compared to hundred of planes taking off, climbing up to cruising altitude, then descending again to land, burning kerosene fossil fuel!
The optimal distance for HSR ranges between 150 to 800 km. If the distance is less than 150, the door-to-door time for HSR will not be competitive with bus/autos. If the distance is above 800 – 1200 km, most travelers will fly. While many countries see HSR projects as potential white elephants, China’s track record shows that high-speed rail can be economically and financially viable
(Martha Lawrence Railway Solutions Group, World Bank)
Some argue it will not be viable (High-speed rail numbers do not make sense by M Shanmugam 31 Jul 2023) But the Govt should also think of the overall spin-offs of having the HSR.

Wessex
Annual report released on 31st Oct … we have now owned Wessex Water for over 20 years, making us the longest single owner of a UK water and sewerage company … track record of responsible ownership … best performers in the sector. Nevertheless, unprecedented criticism from the public, media and politicians about the state of rivers and the impact of storm overflows in the UK over the past year has necessitated a reassessment of investment programmes and priorities throughout the industry. Solving this problem will take many years of sustained effort … etc … Tan Sri Tan Sock Ping
[I notice a change in tone]

As for Wessex’s competitor in England …Analysts say Thames Water's current debt amounts to 80% of the value of the business, making it the most heavily indebted of England and Wales' water companies. Also, interest payments on more than half of Thames' debt rise with inflation, which has been stubbornly high, helping to push the company to the brink. 29 Jun 2023
My take is Wessex should be disposed off for a handsome profit!
20 years is a long time to hold an asset. Sell it off now, plenty of new opportunities nearer home, wait for Thames to go bankrupt and can repeat again.
How much is Wessex worth if it were to be sold now
I want to recap what Datuk Yeoh Seok Hong said …
He cites Wessex Water in the United Kingdom … as a regulated asset … also “inflation protected”. “If inflation goes up by 5% every year, the regulatory capital value will likewise go up by 5%. The asset value will never be depreciated as it will always go up with inflation,” he says.
“For its Wessex Water unit, Yeoh says that its RAB has more than tripled in ringgit value since its acquisition back in 2002 to £3.5bil (RM19.29bil) today. “This is if you take the same 1.6 times regulatory capital value multiple paid to us recently from our ElectraNet and apply it to the Wessex Water asset,” he explains. The Wessex Water currently has an enterprise value of £5.52bil (RM30.43bil) and a net debt value of £2.35bil (RM12.95bil). Yeoh notes that he considers this as a growth asset, which not only provides dividends but also an increase in RAB value through new investments.
But some have already forgotten … YTLPower sold its share of another regulated asset ElectraNet for a whopping RM2.2b profit!
“Enron acquires Wessex Water for US$2.3 billion” (August 31, 1998)
YTL Power Buys Wessex Water cheap from Enron for $776.4 million. Wall Street Journal (March 26, 2002)
So 20 years ago YTLPower bought Wessex from the liquidators of Enron for RM3.6billion (in today’s rate)
How much is it worth now (at say 1.6 times regulatory capital value multiple)

On water supply …
YTL Power acquires 19% stake in Ranhill (for around RM142 million) getting exclusive rights to Johor water supply and Sabah power 50Mw solar plant
On data center
Forbes Asia of August 2023
Francis Yeoh, executive chairman of YTL group of companies, is looking to build on the data center boom as a new engine of growth … YTL built its first data center some 14 years ago, a 5 MW facility in Kuala Lumpur … In 2021, it expanded into Singapore, paying S$200 million ($150 million) for a 50% stake in a second 12.5 MW site.
The game-changer, however, is its construction of a 15-billion-ringgit ($3.3 billion) park in Johor that could eventually deliver as much as 500MW of capacity, co-powered by a solar farm located on an adjoining plot, with the first phase (up to 72MW) expected to go online in early 2024. It will not only be the first solar-powered data center in Malaysia, but one of the largest of its kind in Southeast Asia.
Besting its Southeast Asian peers, Malaysia was the top investment destination for data center investment last year, with 113MW of take-up …. abundance of space—compared with land constraints in Singapore, a regional data center hub—and voracious demand from cloud service giants, such as Amazon Web Services, which recently announced it would fork over $6 billion to build cloud infrastructure in Malaysia over the next 14 years.
Read the rest here https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessicatan/2023/08/13/ytl-head-francis-yeoh-and-his-family-charge-ahead-with-growing-their-data-center-business-to-future-proof-the-68-year-old-infrastructure-conglomerate-will-their-bet-on-solar-powered-parks-pay-off/?sh=26c284fd5390

“Singapore aspires to become Asia's renewable energy hub” … Lawrence Wong … to cut its carbon dioxide emissions to "net zero” by 2050 … country needs to import 4 gigawatts of low-carbon electricity by 2035, equivalent to the output of four nuclear reactors.
M’sia’s NETR (National Energy Transition Roadmap) also have key targets of 70% RE installed capacity, coal free by 2050, targets involving CCUS, hydrogen and bioenergy.
Why Renewable energy? Multinationals eg Amazon, pledge/on a path to powering operations with 100% renewable energy by 2025. So basically if you supply polluting energy, they won’t invest!
YTL Power acquire 664ha Kulai Young estate for RM428.8mil from BPlantation
(In fact they buy the whole of BPlant if the price was right)
So what have they done so far? … Phase 1 of its 72MW data centre and a 500MW solar farm.
Remember 500MW = ½ a nuclear plant (a 1-GW reactor would cost around $5.4 billion to build, excluding financing costs and Fukashima risk)
In the meantime power generation is still mainly gas (about 95%, again mainly from M’sia)
YTL’s PowerSeraya (acquired from Hyflux's Tuaspring for $270m (RM862.31 mil) cash is No2
[As of Jun 2023, Tuas Power Generation held the largest market share (21.3%), followed by YTL PowerSeraya (15.6%) and Senoko Energy (15.4%)]
Up-coming Keppel hydrogen powered plant may take two more years to complete.
Hence an acute projected shortage of power! And a sramble for alternative sources.
Laos at present export 100 MW to S’pore thr Thailand and M’sia
Sarawak Premier Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg … yet to finalise framework … to export up to 1,000 MW (ie 1 GW) of green hydro-power to Singapore via direct undersea cable transmission.
(More mind boggling is the proposal to export solar power from Australia) compared to Kulai Young which is only 60km away from S’pore.
“YTLPower confirms it is jointly developing waste-to-energy plant in Rawang” - August 22, 2023
with KDEB costing RM4.5 billion . That is a lot on money and it is only 58 MW. But I guess they will get paid for the garbage disposal (and the ash produced goes to MCement plant)

Johor-S’pore Special Economic Zone by early 2024 : PM Lee
MOU on Jan 11, 2024. Do investors appreciate the significance?
S’pore has been very good in attracting world class FDI but they know that space and manpower constrains in time will limit their capabilities.
So they plan to expand into Johor. Multinationals on their other hand will be delighted. Mx continues in stable and strong S’pore but investments in cheaper Johor with abundance of manpower.
How does YTL/Power plan to fit into the greater picture?

West Coast Expressway (WCE) cost RM5b, SUKE RM5.3b, EKVE RM1.5b

RAM Ratings has affirmed the AAA(bg)/Stable rating ....... it's a great relief that things are not that bad after all!

RAM Ratings has affirmed the AAA(bg)/Stable rating of EKVE Sdn Bhd's (EKVESB or the Company) Guaranteed Sukuk Murabahah Facility of up to RM1 bil in Nominal Value (the Sukuk). The rating reflects irrevocable and unconditional kafalah guarantees extended by Maybank Islamic Berhad and Bank Pembangunan Malaysia Berhad for tranche 1 and 2 issued under the programme respectively (both rated AAA/Stable/P1). The guarantees enhance the Sukuk's credit profile beyond its standalone position.

Under a 50-year concession agreement with the Government of Malaysia, EKVESB holds the concession for the East Klang Valley Expressway (EKVE or the Expressway), a 36.16 km closed-toll system which starts from Sungai Long in Kajang and ends at Ukay Perdana in Ampang. The Expressway's construction progress remained delayed, standing at 91.82% as of 25 March 2023 (scheduled: 98.56%).

The Project had earlier missed the original September 2019 completion deadline owing to land acquisition issues, which were exacerbated by pandemic-induced lockdowns. The most recent delay stemmed from a lack of funding. EKVESB is awaiting the outcome of its application to the Malaysian Highway Authority for another extension of time. Funding and liquidity concerns will be resolved via additional debt funding procured by both EKVESB and its parent company, Ahmad Zaki Resources Berhad, which can support the Company's construction cost and debt obligations up to December 2024.